Measuring individuals' response quality in self-administered psychological tests : an introduction to Gendre's functional method

The functional method is a new test theory using a new scoring method that assumes complexity in test structure, and thus takes into account every correlation between factors and items. The main specificity of the functional method is to model test scores by multiple regression instead of estimating them by using simplistic sums of points. In order to proceed, the functional method requires the creation of hyperspherical measurement space, in which item responses are expressed by their correlation with orthogonal factors. This method has three main qualities. First, measures are expressed in the absolute metric of correlations; therefore, items, scales and persons are expressed in the same measurement space using the same single metric. Second, factors are systematically orthogonal and without errors, which is optimal in order to predict other outcomes. Such predictions can be performed to estimate how one would answer to other tests, or even to model one's response strategy if it was perfectly coherent. Third, the functional method provides measures of individuals' response validity (i.e., control indices). Herein, we propose a standard procedure in order to identify whether test results are interpretable and to exclude invalid results caused by various response biases based on control indices.

Asymmetrical nature of the Trollius-Chiastocheta interaction: insights into the evolution of nursery pollination systems

The mutualistic versus antagonistic nature of an interaction is defined by costs and benefits of each partner, which may vary depending on the environment. Contrasting with this dynamic view, several pollination interactions are considered as strictly obligate and mutualistic. Here, we focus on the interaction between Trollius europaeus and Chiastocheta flies, considered as a specialized and obligate nursery pollination system - the flies are thought to be exclusive pollinators of the plant and their larvae develop only in T.europaeus fruits. In this system, features such as the globelike flower shape are claimed to have evolved in a coevolutionary context. We examine the specificity of this pollination system and measure traits related to offspring fitness in isolated T.europaeus populations, in some of which Chiastocheta flies have gone extinct. We hypothesize that if this interaction is specific and obligate, the plant should experience dramatic drop in its relative fitness in the absence of Chiastocheta. Contrasting with this hypothesis, T.europaeus populations without flies demonstrate a similar relative fitness to those with the flies present, contradicting the putative obligatory nature of this pollination system. It also agrees with our observation that many other insects also visit and carry pollen among T.europaeus flowers. We propose that the interaction could have evolved through maximization of by-product benefits of the Chiastocheta visits, through the male flower function, and selection on floral traits by the most effective pollinator. We argue this mechanism is also central in the evolution of other nursery pollination systems.

The Regulation of Foreign Banks in Switzerland (1956-1972)

The Swiss financial centre witnessed an important shift during the 1960s: the number of foreign banks and their importance in relation to the domestic banking sector significantly increased. Faced with this rapid development, Swiss bank representatives and political and monetary authorities reacted strongly. This paper investigates the evolution of the regulatory response by Swiss banking policy actors to the proliferation of foreign financial in- stitutions. In 1969, those reactions led to the adoption of a discriminatory regime, setting higher entry barriers for foreign banks than for domestic institutions. After examining possible reasons for the attractiveness of Switzerland to foreign banks, this paper will analyse the concerns and fears of the domestic banking sector and its regulators. In this regard, it appears that issues such as mere competition, preservation of the international reputation of the Swiss banks and anti-inflationary monetary policy were central to the chosen regulatory regime. Moreover, this paper shows that foreign banks were used as scapegoats in the evolution of the Swiss system of banking supervision. They were more tightly regulated, yet the general framework remained very lax.

PI3K and AKT: Unfaithful Partners in Cancer.

The phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3K)/AKT signaling pathway regulates multiple cellular processes. An overactivation of the pathway is frequently present in human malignancies and plays a key role in cancer progression. Hence, its inhibition has become a promising approach in cancer therapy. However, the development of resistances, such as the abrogation of negative feedback mechanisms or the activation of other proliferative signaling pathways, has considerably limited the anticancer efficacy of PI3K/AKT inhibitors. In addition, emerging evidence points out that although AKT is acknowledged as the major downstream effector of PI3K, both PI3K and AKT can operate independently of each other in cancer, revealing another level of complexity in this pathway. Here, we highlight the complex relationship between PI3K and AKT in cancer and further discuss the consequences of this relationship for cancer therapy.

From Olympic administration to Olympic governance

This articles describes three models which played a key role in the evolution of the International Olympic Committee (IOC) and all the organizations which contribute to the staging of the Olympic Games and constitute the Olympic System, from its beginnings in 1894 to the present day. This evolution and the addition of many stakeholders has increased the complexity of the management of the Olympic System over the years from pure Olympic administration (when the IOC headquarters moved to Lausanne in 1915) to Olympic network governance which must take into consideration more than 24 types of stakeholders, including goverments and intergovernmental organizations.

Iterative reconstruction in CT : using mathematical model observers to determine low dose images' trustworthiness

La tomodensitométrie (TDM) est une technique d'imagerie pour laquelle l'intérêt n'a cessé de croitre depuis son apparition au début des années 70. De nos jours, l'utilisation de cette technique est devenue incontournable, grâce entre autres à sa capacité à produire des images diagnostiques de haute qualité. Toutefois, et en dépit d'un bénéfice indiscutable sur la prise en charge des patients, l'augmentation importante du nombre d'examens TDM pratiqués soulève des questions sur l'effet potentiellement dangereux des rayonnements ionisants sur la population. Parmi ces effets néfastes, l'induction de cancers liés à l'exposition aux rayonnements ionisants reste l'un des risques majeurs. Afin que le rapport bénéfice-risques reste favorable au patient il est donc nécessaire de s'assurer que la dose délivrée permette de formuler le bon diagnostic tout en évitant d'avoir recours à des images dont la qualité est inutilement élevée. Ce processus d'optimisation, qui est une préoccupation importante pour les patients adultes, doit même devenir une priorité lorsque l'on examine des enfants ou des adolescents, en particulier lors d'études de suivi requérant plusieurs examens tout au long de leur vie. Enfants et jeunes adultes sont en effet beaucoup plus sensibles aux radiations du fait de leur métabolisme plus rapide que celui des adultes. De plus, les probabilités des évènements auxquels ils s'exposent sont également plus grandes du fait de leur plus longue espérance de vie. L'introduction des algorithmes de reconstruction itératifs, conçus pour réduire l'exposition des patients, est certainement l'une des plus grandes avancées en TDM, mais elle s'accompagne de certaines difficultés en ce qui concerne l'évaluation de la qualité des images produites. Le but de ce travail est de mettre en place une stratégie pour investiguer le potentiel des algorithmes itératifs vis-à-vis de la réduction de dose sans pour autant compromettre la qualité du diagnostic. La difficulté de cette tâche réside principalement dans le fait de disposer d'une méthode visant à évaluer la qualité d'image de façon pertinente d'un point de vue clinique. La première étape a consisté à caractériser la qualité d'image lors d'examen musculo-squelettique. Ce travail a été réalisé en étroite collaboration avec des radiologues pour s'assurer un choix pertinent de critères de qualité d'image. Une attention particulière a été portée au bruit et à la résolution des images reconstruites à l'aide d'algorithmes itératifs. L'analyse de ces paramètres a permis aux radiologues d'adapter leurs protocoles grâce à une possible estimation de la perte de qualité d'image liée à la réduction de dose. Notre travail nous a également permis d'investiguer la diminution de la détectabilité à bas contraste associée à une diminution de la dose ; difficulté majeure lorsque l'on pratique un examen dans la région abdominale. Sachant que des alternatives à la façon standard de caractériser la qualité d'image (métriques de l'espace Fourier) devaient être utilisées, nous nous sommes appuyés sur l'utilisation de modèles d'observateurs mathématiques. Nos paramètres expérimentaux ont ensuite permis de déterminer le type de modèle à utiliser. Les modèles idéaux ont été utilisés pour caractériser la qualité d'image lorsque des paramètres purement physiques concernant la détectabilité du signal devaient être estimés alors que les modèles anthropomorphes ont été utilisés dans des contextes cliniques où les résultats devaient être comparés à ceux d'observateurs humain, tirant profit des propriétés de ce type de modèles. Cette étude a confirmé que l'utilisation de modèles d'observateurs permettait d'évaluer la qualité d'image en utilisant une approche basée sur la tâche à effectuer, permettant ainsi d'établir un lien entre les physiciens médicaux et les radiologues. Nous avons également montré que les reconstructions itératives ont le potentiel de réduire la dose sans altérer la qualité du diagnostic. Parmi les différentes reconstructions itératives, celles de type « model-based » sont celles qui offrent le plus grand potentiel d'optimisation, puisque les images produites grâce à cette modalité conduisent à un diagnostic exact même lors d'acquisitions à très basse dose. Ce travail a également permis de clarifier le rôle du physicien médical en TDM: Les métriques standards restent utiles pour évaluer la conformité d'un appareil aux requis légaux, mais l'utilisation de modèles d'observateurs est inévitable pour optimiser les protocoles d'imagerie. -- Computed tomography (CT) is an imaging technique in which interest has been quickly growing since it began to be used in the 1970s. Today, it has become an extensively used modality because of its ability to produce accurate diagnostic images. However, even if a direct benefit to patient healthcare is attributed to CT, the dramatic increase in the number of CT examinations performed has raised concerns about the potential negative effects of ionising radiation on the population. Among those negative effects, one of the major risks remaining is the development of cancers associated with exposure to diagnostic X-ray procedures. In order to ensure that the benefits-risk ratio still remains in favour of the patient, it is necessary to make sure that the delivered dose leads to the proper diagnosis without producing unnecessarily high-quality images. This optimisation scheme is already an important concern for adult patients, but it must become an even greater priority when examinations are performed on children or young adults, in particular with follow-up studies which require several CT procedures over the patient's life. Indeed, children and young adults are more sensitive to radiation due to their faster metabolism. In addition, harmful consequences have a higher probability to occur because of a younger patient's longer life expectancy. The recent introduction of iterative reconstruction algorithms, which were designed to substantially reduce dose, is certainly a major achievement in CT evolution, but it has also created difficulties in the quality assessment of the images produced using those algorithms. The goal of the present work was to propose a strategy to investigate the potential of iterative reconstructions to reduce dose without compromising the ability to answer the diagnostic questions. The major difficulty entails disposing a clinically relevant way to estimate image quality. To ensure the choice of pertinent image quality criteria this work was continuously performed in close collaboration with radiologists. The work began by tackling the way to characterise image quality when dealing with musculo-skeletal examinations. We focused, in particular, on image noise and spatial resolution behaviours when iterative image reconstruction was used. The analyses of the physical parameters allowed radiologists to adapt their image acquisition and reconstruction protocols while knowing what loss of image quality to expect. This work also dealt with the loss of low-contrast detectability associated with dose reduction, something which is a major concern when dealing with patient dose reduction in abdominal investigations. Knowing that alternative ways had to be used to assess image quality rather than classical Fourier-space metrics, we focused on the use of mathematical model observers. Our experimental parameters determined the type of model to use. Ideal model observers were applied to characterise image quality when purely objective results about the signal detectability were researched, whereas anthropomorphic model observers were used in a more clinical context, when the results had to be compared with the eye of a radiologist thus taking advantage of their incorporation of human visual system elements. This work confirmed that the use of model observers makes it possible to assess image quality using a task-based approach, which, in turn, establishes a bridge between medical physicists and radiologists. It also demonstrated that statistical iterative reconstructions have the potential to reduce the delivered dose without impairing the quality of the diagnosis. Among the different types of iterative reconstructions, model-based ones offer the greatest potential, since images produced using this modality can still lead to an accurate diagnosis even when acquired at very low dose. This work has clarified the role of medical physicists when dealing with CT imaging. The use of the standard metrics used in the field of CT imaging remains quite important when dealing with the assessment of unit compliance to legal requirements, but the use of a model observer is the way to go when dealing with the optimisation of the imaging protocols.

Coevolution of restriction factors and retroviruses

Les virus exploitent la machinerie cellulaire de l'hôte pour se répliquer. Ils doivent s'adapter pour infecter la cellule hôte de manière optimale tout en échappant à la vigilance du système de défense de l'hôte. Ainsi l'hôte et les virus se livrent à de constantes batailles évolutives. Mon travail de thèse a porté sur l'étude des signatures évolutives de facteurs de l'hôte agissant comme des 'facteurs de restriction' en bloquant la réplication rétrovirale chez les primates. Plus spécifiquement, mon travail a visé à utiliser des données évolutives pour renseigner les analyses fonctionnelles et la biologie. Nous avons étudié le facteur anti-VIH-1 nommé TRIM5a (i) chez les prosimiens pour mieux comprendre son rôle dans le contrôle d'un lentivirus endogène, (ii) dans son activité contre d'autres anciennes infections représentées par des rétrovirus endogènes humains et (iii) en tant que protéine capable de générer des mutants de la capside. Premièrement nous nous sommes intéressés à TRIM5a chez deux espèces de lémuriens dont Microcebus murinus qui porte le lentivirus endogène PSIV dans son génome depuis plusieurs millions d'années,. Nous avons observé que TRIM5a chez M. murinus a un spectre d'activité antivirale réduit à l'opposé de TRIM5a chez le Lemur catta - non porteur du PSIV endogène - qui bloque une large variété de rétrovirus dont le PSIV. De ce fait TRIM5a aurait pu contribuer à protéger certaines espèces de lémuriens vis-à-vis d'anciennes infections par le PSIV. A l'inverse du PSIV, des virus dérivés des rétrovirus endogènes humains HERV-K and HERV-H se sont révélés largement résistants à l'inhibition par TRIM5a. Ces données illustrent une absence de protection par TRIM5a face à d'autres anciennes infections rétrovirales. Puis, pour évaluer l'impact de la protéine TRIM5a humaine sur le VIH-1, nous avons testé l'effet de mutations des résidues sous sélection positive dans la capside du VIH-1 sur l'inhibition par TRIM5a. Nos résultats montrent que TRIM5a ne jouerait pas un rôle significatif dans l'évolution de la capside du VIH-1. Enfin notre travail a porté sur le facteur anti-VIH-1 SAMHD1 récemment découvert, que nous avons séquencé chez 25 espèces de primates. L'analyse évolutive des sites sous sélection positive et des expériences fonctionnelles ont permis d'identifier le domaine de SAMHD1 interagissant avec la protéine lentivirale Vpx. De même que d'autres protéines virales contrecarrent les facteurs de restriction en les menant à la dégradation, nous avons observé que Vpx induit la dégradation de SAMHD1 de manière spécifique à l'espèce. Ces découvertes contribuent à comprendre comment les facteurs de restriction et les virus co-évoluent pour se neutraliser l'un l'autre. - Viruses hijack the host cellular machinery to replicate. They adapt to infect optimally host cells while escaping host defense systems. Viruses and the host coevolve in an evolutionary struggle. My thesis work has been devoted to study the evolutionary signatures of host factors acting as restriction factors that block retroviral replication in primates. Specifically, my work aimed at using evolutionary data to inform functional analyses and biology. We studied the anti-HIV-1 factor TRIM5a (i) in prosimians to better understand its possible role in the control of an endogenous lentivirus, (ii) in its activity against other ancient infections - as represented by HERVs, and (iii) as a protein capable of generating escape mutants in the viral capsid. First, my work focused on two lemur species, one of which was the gray mouse lemur that carries the endogenous lentivirus PSIV integrated in its genome for several million years. TRIM5a from gray mouse lemur exhibited a limited antiviral spectrum as opposed to TRIM5a from ring-tailed lemur - not a host of PSIV - that is able to block diverse retroviruses notably PSIV. These results support the possible contribution of TRIM5a in protecting lemur species from ancient infection by PSIV. In contrast, chimeric viruses derived from two human endogenous retroviruses were broadly resistant to TRIM5a-mediated restriction, suggesting TRIM5a lack of activity against other types of ancient infections. To evaluate the recent impact of human TRIM5a on HIV-1 evolution, we tested whether variants at positively selected sites in the HIV-1 capsid affected the ability of human TRIM5a alleles to restrict HIV-1. Our results indicate that TRIM5a does not play a significant role in the evolution of HIV1 capsid. At last, our work concentrated on the newly discovered anti-HIV-1 restriction factor SAMHD1. We determined its coding sequence in a panel of 25 species of primates. Evolutionary analyses of positively selected sites in SAMHD1 domains and functional assays identified the domain of SAMHD1 interacting with the lentiviral protein Vpx. Similar to other viral countermeasures targeting cellular restriction factors, Vpx was responsible of the degradation of SAMHD1 orthologs in a species-specific manner. These findings contributed to understanding how restriction factors and viruses evolve to counteract each other.

Molecular estimation of dispersal for ecology and population genetics

The dispersal process, by which individuals or other dispersing agents such as gametes or seeds move from birthplace to a new settlement locality, has important consequences for the dynamics of genes, individuals, and species. Many of the questions addressed by ecology and evolutionary biology require a good understanding of species' dispersal patterns. Much effort has thus been devoted to overcoming the difficulties associated with dispersal measurement. In this context, genetic tools have long been the focus of intensive research, providing a great variety of potential solutions to measuring dispersal. This methodological diversity is reviewed here to help (molecular) ecologists find their way toward dispersal inference and interpretation and to stimulate further developments.

Pervasive positive selection on duplicated and nonduplicated vertebrate protein coding genes.

A stringent branch-site codon model was used to detect positive selection in vertebrate evolution. We show that the test is robust to the large evolutionary distances involved. Positive selection was detected in 77% of 884 genes studied. Most positive selection concerns a few sites on a single branch of the phylogenetic tree: Between 0.9% and 4.7% of sites are affected by positive selection depending on the branches. No functional category was overrepresented among genes under positive selection. Surprisingly, whole genome duplication had no effect on the prevalence of positive selection, whether the fish-specific genome duplication or the two rounds at the origin of vertebrates. Thus positive selection has not been limited to a few gene classes, or to specific evolutionary events such as duplication, but has been pervasive during vertebrate evolution.

Invasion and fixation of sex-reversal genes.

We simulated a meta-population with random dispersal among demes but local mating within demes to investigate conditions under which a dominant female-determining gene W, with no individual selection advantage, can invade and become fixed in females, changing the population from male to female heterogamety. Starting with one mutant W in a single deme, the interaction of sex ratio selection and random genetic drift causes W to be fixed among females more often than a comparable neutral mutation with no influence on sex determination, even when YY males have slightly reduced viability. Meta-population structure and interdeme selection can also favour the fixation of W. The reverse transition from female to male heterogamety can also occur with higher probability than for a comparable neutral mutation. These results help to explain the involvement of sex-determining genes in the evolution of sex chromosomes and in sexual selection and speciation.

How local excitation-inhibition ratio impacts the whole brain dynamics.

The spontaneous activity of the brain shows different features at different scales. On one hand, neuroimaging studies show that long-range correlations are highly structured in spatiotemporal patterns, known as resting-state networks, on the other hand, neurophysiological reports show that short-range correlations between neighboring neurons are low, despite a large amount of shared presynaptic inputs. Different dynamical mechanisms of local decorrelation have been proposed, among which is feedback inhibition. Here, we investigated the effect of locally regulating the feedback inhibition on the global dynamics of a large-scale brain model, in which the long-range connections are given by diffusion imaging data of human subjects. We used simulations and analytical methods to show that locally constraining the feedback inhibition to compensate for the excess of long-range excitatory connectivity, to preserve the asynchronous state, crucially changes the characteristics of the emergent resting and evoked activity. First, it significantly improves the model's prediction of the empirical human functional connectivity. Second, relaxing this constraint leads to an unrealistic network evoked activity, with systematic coactivation of cortical areas which are components of the default-mode network, whereas regulation of feedback inhibition prevents this. Finally, information theoretic analysis shows that regulation of the local feedback inhibition increases both the entropy and the Fisher information of the network evoked responses. Hence, it enhances the information capacity and the discrimination accuracy of the global network. In conclusion, the local excitation-inhibition ratio impacts the structure of the spontaneous activity and the information transmission at the large-scale brain level.

The predation cost of being a male: implications for sex-specific rates of ageing

Evolutionary theory predicts that the rate of extrinsic (i.e. age- and condition-independent) mortality should affect important life history traits such as the rate of ageing and maximum lifespan. Sex-specific differences in mortality rates due to predation may therefore result in the evolution of important differences in life history traits between males and females. However, quantifying the role of predators as a factor of extrinsic mortality is notoriously difficult in natural populations. We took advantage of the unusual prey caching behaviour of the barn owl Tyto alba and the tawny owl Strix aluco to estimate the sex ratio of their five most common preys. For all prey species, there was a significant bias in the sex ratio of remains found in nests of both these owls. A survey of literature revealed that sex-biased predation is a common phenomenon. These results demonstrate that predation, a chief source of extrinsic mortality, was strongly sex-biased. This may select for alternate life history strategies between males and females, and account for a male life span being frequently lower than female lifespan in many animal species.

Identification of peptide ligands to the chemokine receptor CCR5 and their maturation by gene shuffling.

The determination of protein-protein interactions and their role in diverse pathophysiological processes is a promising approach to the identification of molecules of therapeutic potential. This paper describes the identification of peptidic CCR5 receptor ligands as potential drug leads against HIV-1 infection using in vitro evolution based on phage display. A phage-displayed peptide library was used to select for anti-CCR5 peptide. Further in vitro evolution of the peptide by exon shuffling was performed to identify peptides with optimized characteristics for CCR5 receptor. This peptide inhibited HIV coreceptor activity in a cell fusion assay with an IC50 of 5 microM. It did not exhibit either agonistic or antagonistic activity on CCR5 in the concentration range used. To our knowledge, this is a first report that describes the identification of peptide ligands specific to the CCR5 receptor from a phage-displayed library and the maturation of the selected peptide sequence by gene shuffling.

Constraints on the upper Permian to upper Triassic marine carbon isotope curve : case studies from the Tethys

Secular variations of the seawater carbon isotopic composition provide evidence for paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic changes and may serve for chemiostratigraphic correlations. The present study aimed to improve the current knowledge on the Upper Permian and Triassic segment of the Phanerozoic marine carbon isotope curve, whose Triassic part was poorly constrained by previous studies. Profiles of inorganic carbon isotopes are provided for sections from Himalaya (Salt Range, Kashmir, Spiti and Nepal), Oman and North Dobrogea (Romania) on the basis of whole-rock carbonate analysis. The data acquired, together with a literature compilation confirmed that most of the Upper Permian is characterized by high δ13C values (averaging +40/00) but failed to detect a positive excursion as suggested by recent compilations. In the light of these observations, the large drop in δ13C values associated with the end-Permian mass extinction appears to be driven by a sudden transfer of previously stocked 13C depleted carbon, rather than by the overturn of a Late Permian stratified ocean. The Triassic data-set outlines significant secular variations. The best documented is a carbon isotope positive excursion just across the Lower-Middle Triassic boundary, globally developed since it was detected in various paleogeographic settings. It is interpreted to reflect variations in surface ocean chemistry, possibly related to increased primary productivity, at times when the biotic recovery after the end-Permian mass-extinction began to accelerate significantly and when a sharp rise in seawater δ34S values occurred globally. Strontium isotope data obtained from well preserved biogenic phosphates allow a refinement of the Middle Triassic segment of the seawater strontium isotope curve and show a major inflexion point of the seawater strontium isotope curve also near the Lower Triassic - Middle Triassic boundary. These facts suggest that the transition from the Early to the Middle Triassic was a time of revolutionary global change which represented an important step in the evolution of Mesozoic marine environments. A tentative carbon isotope curve for the Upper Permian to Upper Triassic time interval is proposed. Its major features are: ? high but constant δ13C values during the Late Permian ? a sharp drop in δ13C values in the latest Permian ? subsequent recovery of δ13C values ? a short-lived positive excursion across the Early-Middle Triassic boundary ? a gradual rise in δ13C values starting in the Late Ladinian or in the Early Carnian It is foreseen that these fluctuations of the carbon isotope curve may serve as chronostratigraphic markers and further assist in the correlation of Permian and Triassic carbonate deposits.

HIV-1 coreceptor usage and CXCR4-specific viral load predict clinical disease progression during combination antiretroviral therapy

Background: Although combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) dramatically reduces rates of AIDS and death, a minority of patients experience clinical disease progression during treatment. <p>Objective: To investigate whether detection of CXCR4(X4)-specific strains or quantification of X4-specific HIV-1 load predict clinical outcome. Methods: From the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, 96 participants who initiated cART yet subsequently progressed to AIDS or death were compared with 84 contemporaneous, treated nonprogressors. A sensitive heteroduplex tracking assay was developed to quantify plasma X4 and CCR5 variants and resolve HIV-1 load into coreceptor-specific components. Measurements were analyzed as cofactors of progression in multivariable Cox models adjusted for concurrent CD4 cell count and total viral load, applying inverse probability weights to adjust for sampling bias. Results: Patients with X4 variants at baseline displayed reduced CD4 cell responses compared with those without X4 strains (40 versus 82 cells/mu l; P= 0.012). The adjusted multivariable hazard ratio (HR) for clinical progression was 4.8 [95% confidence interval (Cl) 2.3-10.0] for those demonstrating X4 strains at baseline. The X4-specific HIV-1 load was a similarly independent predictor, with HR values of 3.7(95%Cl, 1.2-11.3) and 5.9 (95% Cl, 2.2-15.0) for baseline loads of 2.2-4.3 and > 4.3 log(10)copies/ml, respectively, compared with < 2.2 log(10)copies/ml. Conclusions: HIV-1 coreceptor usage and X4-specific viral loads strongly predicted disease progression during cART, independent of and in addition to CD4 cell count or total viral load. Detection and quantification of X4 strains promise to be clinically useful biomarkers to guide patient management and study HIV-1 pathogenesis.