Using a Bayesian method to assign individuals to karyotypic taxa in shrew hybrid zones.

Individuals sampled in hybrid zones are usually analysed according to their sampling locality, morphology, behaviour or karyotype. But the increasing availability of genetic information more and more favours its use for individual sorting purposes and numerous assignment methods based on the genetic composition of individuals have been developed. The shrews of the Sorex araneus group offer good opportunities to test the genetic assignment on individuals identified by their karyotype. Here we explored the potential and efficiency of a Bayesian assignment method combined or not with a reference dataset to study admixture and individual assignment in the difficult context of two hybrid zones between karyotypic species of the Sorex araneus group. As a whole, we assigned more than 80% of the individuals to their respective karyotypic categories (i.e. 'pure' species or hybrids). This assignment level is comparable to what was obtained for the same species away from hybrid zones. Additionally, we showed that the assignment result for several individuals was strongly affected by the inclusion or not of a reference dataset. This highlights the importance of such comparisons when analysing hybrid zones. Finally, differences between the admixture levels detected in both hybrid zones support the hypothesis of an impact of chromosomal rearrangements on gene flow.

Decoding sequence learning from single-trial intracranial EEG in humans.

We propose and validate a multivariate classification algorithm for characterizing changes in human intracranial electroencephalographic data (iEEG) after learning motor sequences. The algorithm is based on a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) that captures spatio-temporal properties of the iEEG at the level of single trials. Continuous intracranial iEEG was acquired during two sessions (one before and one after a night of sleep) in two patients with depth electrodes implanted in several brain areas. They performed a visuomotor sequence (serial reaction time task, SRTT) using the fingers of their non-dominant hand. Our results show that the decoding algorithm correctly classified single iEEG trials from the trained sequence as belonging to either the initial training phase (day 1, before sleep) or a later consolidated phase (day 2, after sleep), whereas it failed to do so for trials belonging to a control condition (pseudo-random sequence). Accurate single-trial classification was achieved by taking advantage of the distributed pattern of neural activity. However, across all the contacts the hippocampus contributed most significantly to the classification accuracy for both patients, and one fronto-striatal contact for one patient. Together, these human intracranial findings demonstrate that a multivariate decoding approach can detect learning-related changes at the level of single-trial iEEG. Because it allows an unbiased identification of brain sites contributing to a behavioral effect (or experimental condition) at the level of single subject, this approach could be usefully applied to assess the neural correlates of other complex cognitive functions in patients implanted with multiple electrodes.

Probabilistic evidential assessment of gunshot residue particle evidence (Part II) : Bayesian parameter estimation for experimental count data.

Part I of this series of articles focused on the construction of graphical probabilistic inference procedures, at various levels of detail, for assessing the evidential value of gunshot residue (GSR) particle evidence. The proposed models - in the form of Bayesian networks - address the issues of background presence of GSR particles, analytical performance (i.e., the efficiency of evidence searching and analysis procedures) and contamination. The use and practical implementation of Bayesian networks for case pre-assessment is also discussed. This paper, Part II, concentrates on Bayesian parameter estimation. This topic complements Part I in that it offers means for producing estimates useable for the numerical specification of the proposed probabilistic graphical models. Bayesian estimation procedures are given a primary focus of attention because they allow the scientist to combine (his/her) prior knowledge about the problem of interest with newly acquired experimental data. The present paper also considers further topics such as the sensitivity of the likelihood ratio due to uncertainty in parameters and the study of likelihood ratio values obtained for members of particular populations (e.g., individuals with or without exposure to GSR).

Bayesian networks for evaluating forensic DNA profiling evidence: a review and guide to literature

Almost 30 years ago, Bayesian networks (BNs) were developed in the field of artificial intelligence as a framework that should assist researchers and practitioners in applying the theory of probability to inference problems of more substantive size and, thus, to more realistic and practical problems. Since the late 1980s, Bayesian networks have also attracted researchers in forensic science and this tendency has considerably intensified throughout the last decade. This review article provides an overview of the scientific literature that describes research on Bayesian networks as a tool that can be used to study, develop and implement probabilistic procedures for evaluating the probative value of particular items of scientific evidence in forensic science. Primary attention is drawn here to evaluative issues that pertain to forensic DNA profiling evidence because this is one of the main categories of evidence whose assessment has been studied through Bayesian networks. The scope of topics is large and includes almost any aspect that relates to forensic DNA profiling. Typical examples are inference of source (or, 'criminal identification'), relatedness testing, database searching and special trace evidence evaluation (such as mixed DNA stains or stains with low quantities of DNA). The perspective of the review presented here is not exclusively restricted to DNA evidence, but also includes relevant references and discussion on both, the concept of Bayesian networks as well as its general usage in legal sciences as one among several different graphical approaches to evidence evaluation.

The influence of learning on evolution: a mathematical framework.

The Baldwin effect can be observed if phenotypic learning influences the evolutionary fitness of individuals, which can in turn accelerate or decelerate evolutionary change. Evidence for both learning-induced acceleration and deceleration can be found in the literature. Although the results for both outcomes were supported by specific mathematical or simulation models, no general predictions have been achieved so far. Here we propose a general framework to predict whether evolution benefits from learning or not. It is formulated in terms of the gain function, which quantifies the proportional change of fitness due to learning depending on the genotype value. With an inductive proof we show that a positive gain-function derivative implies that learning accelerates evolution, and a negative one implies deceleration under the condition that the population is distributed on a monotonic part of the fitness landscape. We show that the gain-function framework explains the results of several specific simulation models. We also use the gain-function framework to shed some light on the results of a recent biological experiment with fruit flies.

Substantial advantage of a combined Bayesian and genotyping approach in testosterone doping tests.

Testosterone abuse is conventionally assessed by the urinary testosterone/epitestosterone (T/E) ratio, levels above 4.0 being considered suspicious. A deletion polymorphism in the gene coding for UGT2B17 is strongly associated with reduced testosterone glucuronide (TG) levels in urine. Many of the individuals devoid of the gene would not reach a T/E ratio of 4.0 after testosterone intake. Future test programs will most likely shift from population based- to individual-based T/E cut-off ratios using Bayesian inference. A longitudinal analysis is dependent on an individual's true negative baseline T/E ratio. The aim was to investigate whether it is possible to increase the sensitivity and specificity of the T/E test by addition of UGT2B17 genotype information in a Bayesian framework. A single intramuscular dose of 500mg testosterone enanthate was given to 55 healthy male volunteers with either two, one or no allele (ins/ins, ins/del or del/del) of the UGT2B17 gene. Urinary excretion of TG and the T/E ratio was measured during 15 days. The Bayesian analysis was conducted to calculate the individual T/E cut-off ratio. When adding the genotype information, the program returned lower individual cut-off ratios in all del/del subjects increasing the sensitivity of the test considerably. It will be difficult, if not impossible, to discriminate between a true negative baseline T/E value and a false negative one without knowledge of the UGT2B17 genotype. UGT2B17 genotype information is crucial, both to decide which initial cut-off ratio to use for an individual, and for increasing the sensitivity of the Bayesian analysis.

Time Series Input Selection using Multiple Kernel Learning

In this paper we study the relevance of multiple kernel learning (MKL) for the automatic selection of time series inputs. Recently, MKL has gained great attention in the machine learning community due to its flexibility in modelling complex patterns and performing feature selection. In general, MKL constructs the kernel as a weighted linear combination of basis kernels, exploiting different sources of information. An efficient algorithm wrapping a Support Vector Regression model for optimizing the MKL weights, named SimpleMKL, is used for the analysis. In this sense, MKL performs feature selection by discarding inputs/kernels with low or null weights. The approach proposed is tested with simulated linear and nonlinear time series (AutoRegressive, Henon and Lorenz series).

Electrical neuroimaging of memory discrimination based on single-trial multisensory learning.

Multisensory experiences influence subsequent memory performance and brain responses. Studies have thus far concentrated on semantically congruent pairings, leaving unresolved the influence of stimulus pairing and memory sub-types. Here, we paired images with unique, meaningless sounds during a continuous recognition task to determine if purely episodic, single-trial multisensory experiences can incidentally impact subsequent visual object discrimination. Psychophysics and electrical neuroimaging analyses of visual evoked potentials (VEPs) compared responses to repeated images either paired or not with a meaningless sound during initial encounters. Recognition accuracy was significantly impaired for images initially presented as multisensory pairs and could not be explained in terms of differential attention or transfer of effects from encoding to retrieval. VEP modulations occurred at 100-130ms and 270-310ms and stemmed from topographic differences indicative of network configuration changes within the brain. Distributed source estimations localized the earlier effect to regions of the right posterior temporal gyrus (STG) and the later effect to regions of the middle temporal gyrus (MTG). Responses in these regions were stronger for images previously encountered as multisensory pairs. Only the later effect correlated with performance such that greater MTG activity in response to repeated visual stimuli was linked with greater performance decrements. The present findings suggest that brain networks involved in this discrimination may critically depend on whether multisensory events facilitate or impair later visual memory performance. More generally, the data support models whereby effects of multisensory interactions persist to incidentally affect subsequent behavior as well as visual processing during its initial stages.