Linking landscape- and population ecology for large population management modelling: the case of Ibex (capra ibex) in Switzerland

La biologie de la conservation est communément associée à la protection de petites populations menacées d?extinction. Pourtant, il peut également être nécessaire de soumettre à gestion des populations surabondantes ou susceptibles d?une trop grande expansion, dans le but de prévenir les effets néfastes de la surpopulation. Du fait des différences tant quantitatives que qualitatives entre protection des petites populations et contrôle des grandes, il est nécessaire de disposer de modèles et de méthodes distinctes. L?objectif de ce travail a été de développer des modèles prédictifs de la dynamique des grandes populations, ainsi que des logiciels permettant de calculer les paramètres de ces modèles et de tester des scénarios de gestion. Le cas du Bouquetin des Alpes (Capra ibex ibex) - en forte expansion en Suisse depuis sa réintroduction au début du XXème siècle - servit d?exemple. Cette tâche fut accomplie en trois étapes : En premier lieu, un modèle de dynamique locale, spécifique au Bouquetin, fut développé : le modèle sous-jacent - structuré en classes d?âge et de sexe - est basé sur une matrice de Leslie à laquelle ont été ajoutées la densité-dépendance, la stochasticité environnementale et la chasse de régulation. Ce modèle fut implémenté dans un logiciel d?aide à la gestion - nommé SIM-Ibex - permettant la maintenance de données de recensements, l?estimation automatisée des paramètres, ainsi que l?ajustement et la simulation de stratégies de régulation. Mais la dynamique d?une population est influencée non seulement par des facteurs démographiques, mais aussi par la dispersion et la colonisation de nouveaux espaces. Il est donc nécessaire de pouvoir modéliser tant la qualité de l?habitat que les obstacles à la dispersion. Une collection de logiciels - nommée Biomapper - fut donc développée. Son module central est basé sur l?Analyse Factorielle de la Niche Ecologique (ENFA) dont le principe est de calculer des facteurs de marginalité et de spécialisation de la niche écologique à partir de prédicteurs environnementaux et de données d?observation de l?espèce. Tous les modules de Biomapper sont liés aux Systèmes d?Information Géographiques (SIG) ; ils couvrent toutes les opérations d?importation des données, préparation des prédicteurs, ENFA et calcul de la carte de qualité d?habitat, validation et traitement des résultats ; un module permet également de cartographier les barrières et les corridors de dispersion. Le domaine d?application de l?ENFA fut exploré par le biais d?une distribution d?espèce virtuelle. La comparaison à une méthode couramment utilisée pour construire des cartes de qualité d?habitat, le Modèle Linéaire Généralisé (GLM), montra qu?elle était particulièrement adaptée pour les espèces cryptiques ou en cours d?expansion. Les informations sur la démographie et le paysage furent finalement fusionnées en un modèle global. Une approche basée sur un automate cellulaire fut choisie, tant pour satisfaire aux contraintes du réalisme de la modélisation du paysage qu?à celles imposées par les grandes populations : la zone d?étude est modélisée par un pavage de cellules hexagonales, chacune caractérisée par des propriétés - une capacité de soutien et six taux d?imperméabilité quantifiant les échanges entre cellules adjacentes - et une variable, la densité de la population. Cette dernière varie en fonction de la reproduction et de la survie locale, ainsi que de la dispersion, sous l?influence de la densité-dépendance et de la stochasticité. Un logiciel - nommé HexaSpace - fut développé pour accomplir deux fonctions : 1° Calibrer l?automate sur la base de modèles de dynamique (par ex. calculés par SIM-Ibex) et d?une carte de qualité d?habitat (par ex. calculée par Biomapper). 2° Faire tourner des simulations. Il permet d?étudier l?expansion d?une espèce envahisseuse dans un paysage complexe composé de zones de qualité diverses et comportant des obstacles à la dispersion. Ce modèle fut appliqué à l?histoire de la réintroduction du Bouquetin dans les Alpes bernoises (Suisse). SIM-Ibex est actuellement utilisé par les gestionnaires de la faune et par les inspecteurs du gouvernement pour préparer et contrôler les plans de tir. Biomapper a été appliqué à plusieurs espèces (tant végétales qu?animales) à travers le Monde. De même, même si HexaSpace fut initialement conçu pour des espèces animales terrestres, il pourrait aisément être étndu à la propagation de plantes ou à la dispersion d?animaux volants. Ces logiciels étant conçus pour, à partir de données brutes, construire un modèle réaliste complexe, et du fait qu?ils sont dotés d?une interface d?utilisation intuitive, ils sont susceptibles de nombreuses applications en biologie de la conservation. En outre, ces approches peuvent également s?appliquer à des questions théoriques dans les domaines de l?écologie des populations et du paysage.<br/><br/>Conservation biology is commonly associated to small and endangered population protection. Nevertheless, large or potentially large populations may also need human management to prevent negative effects of overpopulation. As there are both qualitative and quantitative differences between small population protection and large population controlling, distinct methods and models are needed. The aim of this work was to develop theoretical models to predict large population dynamics, as well as computer tools to assess the parameters of these models and to test management scenarios. The alpine Ibex (Capra ibex ibex) - which experienced a spectacular increase since its reintroduction in Switzerland at the beginning of the 20th century - was used as paradigm species. This task was achieved in three steps: A local population dynamics model was first developed specifically for Ibex: the underlying age- and sex-structured model is based on a Leslie matrix approach with addition of density-dependence, environmental stochasticity and culling. This model was implemented into a management-support software - named SIM-Ibex - allowing census data maintenance, parameter automated assessment and culling strategies tuning and simulating. However population dynamics is driven not only by demographic factors, but also by dispersal and colonisation of new areas. Habitat suitability and obstacles modelling had therefore to be addressed. Thus, a software package - named Biomapper - was developed. Its central module is based on the Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) whose principle is to compute niche marginality and specialisation factors from a set of environmental predictors and species presence data. All Biomapper modules are linked to Geographic Information Systems (GIS); they cover all operations of data importation, predictor preparation, ENFA and habitat suitability map computation, results validation and further processing; a module also allows mapping of dispersal barriers and corridors. ENFA application domain was then explored by means of a simulated species distribution. It was compared to a common habitat suitability assessing method, the Generalised Linear Model (GLM), and was proven better suited for spreading or cryptic species. Demography and landscape informations were finally merged into a global model. To cope with landscape realism and technical constraints of large population modelling, a cellular automaton approach was chosen: the study area is modelled by a lattice of hexagonal cells, each one characterised by a few fixed properties - a carrying capacity and six impermeability rates quantifying exchanges between adjacent cells - and one variable, population density. The later varies according to local reproduction/survival and dispersal dynamics, modified by density-dependence and stochasticity. A software - named HexaSpace - was developed, which achieves two functions: 1° Calibrating the automaton on the base of local population dynamics models (e.g., computed by SIM-Ibex) and a habitat suitability map (e.g. computed by Biomapper). 2° Running simulations. It allows studying the spreading of an invading species across a complex landscape made of variously suitable areas and dispersal barriers. This model was applied to the history of Ibex reintroduction in Bernese Alps (Switzerland). SIM-Ibex is now used by governmental wildlife managers to prepare and verify culling plans. Biomapper has been applied to several species (both plants and animals) all around the World. In the same way, whilst HexaSpace was originally designed for terrestrial animal species, it could be easily extended to model plant propagation or flying animals dispersal. As these softwares were designed to proceed from low-level data to build a complex realistic model and as they benefit from an intuitive user-interface, they may have many conservation applications. Moreover, theoretical questions in the fields of population and landscape ecology might also be addressed by these approaches.

Neural detection of complex sound sequences in the absence of consciousness.

The neural response to a violation of sequences of identical sounds is a typical example of the brain's sensitivity to auditory regularities. Previous literature interprets this effect as a pre-attentive and unconscious processing of sensory stimuli. By contrast, a violation to auditory global regularities, i.e. based on repeating groups of sounds, is typically detectable when subjects can consciously perceive them. Here, we challenge the notion that global detection implies consciousness by testing the neural response to global violations in a group of 24 patients with post-anoxic coma (three females, age range 45-87 years), treated with mild therapeutic hypothermia and sedation. By applying a decoding analysis to electroencephalographic responses to standard versus deviant sound sequences, we found above-chance decoding performance in 10 of 24 patients (Wilcoxon signed-rank test, P < 0.001), despite five of them being mildly hypothermic, sedated and unarousable. Furthermore, consistently with previous findings based on the mismatch negativity the progression of this decoding performance was informative of patients' chances of awakening (78% predictive of awakening). Our results show for the first time that detection of global regularities at neural level exists despite a deeply unconscious state.

Visualizing Business Model Evolution with the Business Model Canvas: Concept and Tool

The Business Model Canvas (BMC) assists in the design of companies' business models. As strategies evolve so too does the business model. Unfortunately, each BMC is a standalone representation. Thus, there is a need to be able to describe transformation from one version of a business model to the next as well as to visualize these operations. To address this issue, and to contribute to computer-assisted business model design, we propose a set of design principles for business model evolution. We also demonstrate a tool that can assist in the creation and navigation of business model versions in a visual and user-friendly way

Nonverbal social sensing in action: Unobtrusive recording and extracting of nonverbal behavior in social interactions illustrated with a research example

Nonverbal behavior coding is typically conducted by "hand". To remedy this time and resource intensive undertaking, we illustrate how nonverbal social sensing, defined as the automated recording and extracting of nonverbal behavior via ubiquitous social sensing platforms, can be achieved. More precisely, we show how and what kind of nonverbal cues can be extracted and to what extent automated extracted nonverbal cues can be validly obtained with an illustrative research example. In a job interview, the applicant's vocal and visual nonverbal immediacy behavior was automatically sensed and extracted. Results show that the applicant's nonverbal behavior can be validly extracted. Moreover, both visual and vocal applicant nonverbal behavior predict recruiter hiring decision, which is in line with previous findings on manually coded applicant nonverbal behavior. Finally, applicant average turn duration, tempo variation, and gazing best predict recruiter hiring decision. Results and implications of such a nonverbal social sensing for future research are discussed.

Acute and Chronic Altitude-Induced Cognitive Dysfunction in Children and Adolescents.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether exposure to high altitude induces cognitive dysfunction in young healthy European children and adolescents during acute, short-term exposure to an altitude of 3450 m and in an age-matched European population permanently living at this altitude. STUDY DESIGN: We tested executive function (inhibition, shifting, and working memory), memory (verbal, short-term visuospatial, and verbal episodic memory), and speed processing ability in: (1) 48 healthy nonacclimatized European children and adolescents, 24 hours after arrival at high altitude and 3 months after return to low altitude; (2) 21 matched European subjects permanently living at high altitude; and (3) a matched control group tested twice at low altitude. RESULTS: Short-term hypoxia significantly impaired all but 2 (visuospatial memory and processing speed) of the neuropsychological abilities that were tested. These impairments were even more severe in the children permanently living at high altitude. Three months after return to low altitude, the neuropsychological performances significantly improved and were comparable with those observed in the control group tested only at low altitude. CONCLUSIONS: Acute short-term exposure to an altitude at which major tourist destinations are located induces marked executive and memory deficits in healthy children. These deficits are equally marked or more severe in children permanently living at high altitude and are expected to impair their learning abilities.