Advances in Sequence Analysis: Theory, Methods, Applications

This book gives a general view of sequence analysis, the statistical study of successions of states or events. It includes innovative contributions on life course studies, transitions into and out of employment, contemporaneous and historical careers, and political trajectories. The approach presented in this book is now central to the life-course perspective and the study of social processes more generally. This volume promotes the dialogue between approaches to sequence analysis that developed separately, within traditions contrasted in space and disciplines. It includes the latest developments in sequential concepts, coding, atypical datasets and time patterns, optimal matching and alternative algorithms, survey optimization, and visualization. Field studies include original sequential material related to parenting in 19th-century Belgium, higher education and work in Finland and Italy, family formation before and after German reunification, French Jews persecuted in occupied France, long-term trends in electoral participation, and regime democratization. Overall the book reassesses the classical uses of sequences and it promotes new ways of collecting, formatting, representing and processing them. The introduction provides basic sequential concepts and tools, as well as a history of the method. Chapters are presented in a way that is both accessible to the beginner and informative to the expert.

War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust and Conflict

We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is inhabitated by two ethnic groups. Inter-ethnic trade requires imperfectly observed bilateral investments and one group has to form beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since conflict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals that the aggressor has a low propensity to trade. Agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over time, transmitting them to the next generation. The theory bears a set of testable predictions. First, war is a stochastic process whose frequency depends on the state of endogenous beliefs. Second, the probability of future conflicts increases after each conflict episode. Third, "accidental" conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent breakdown of trust, plunging a society into a vicious cycle of recurrent conflicts (a war trap). The incidence of conflict can be reduced by policies abating cultural barriers, fostering inter-ethnic trade and human capital, and shifting beliefs. Coercive peace policies such as peacekeeping forces or externally imposed regime changes have instead no persistent effects.

Development of a cost-effective method for platelet-rich plasma (PRP) preparation for topical wound healing.

Platelet-rich plasma (PRP) is a volume of plasma fraction of autologous blood having platelet concentrations above baseline whole-blood values due to processing and concentration. PRP is used in various surgical fields to enhance soft-tissue and bone healing by delivering supra-physiological concentrations of autologous platelets at the site of tissue damage. These preparations may provide a good cellular source of various growth factors and cytokines, and modulate tissue response to injury. Common clinically available materials for blood preparations combined with a two-step centrifugation protocol at 280g each, to ensure cellular component integrity, provided platelet preparations which were concentrated 2-3 fold over total blood values. Costs were shown to be lower than those of other methods which require specific equipment and high-cost disposables, while safety and traceability can be increased. PRP can be used for the treatment of wounds of all types including burns and also of split-thickness skin graft donor sites, which are frequently used in burn management. The procedure can be standardized and is easy to adapt in clinical settings with minimal infrastructure, thus enabling large numbers of patients to benefit from a form of cellular therapy.

Statins for cardiovascular prevention according to different strategies: a cost analysis.

Background: Several studies have shown that treatment with HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins) can reduce coronary heart disease (CHD) rates. However, the cost effectiveness of statin treatment in the primary prevention of CHD has not been fully established. Objective: To estimate the costs of CHD prevention using statins in Switzerland according to different guidelines, over a 10-year period. Methods: The overall 10-year costs, costs of one CHD death averted, and of 1 year without CHD were computed for the European Society of Cardiology (ESC), the International Atherosclerosis Society (IAS), and the US Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP-III) guidelines. Sensitivity analysis was performed by varying number of CHD events prevented and costs of treatment. Results: Using an inflation rate of medical costs of 3%, a single yearly consultation, a single total cholesterol measurement per year, and a generic statin, the overall 10-year costs of the ESC, IAS, and ATP-III strategies were 2.2, 3.4, and 4.1 billion Swiss francs (SwF [SwF1 = $US0.97]). In this scenario, the average cost for 1 year of life gained was SwF352, SwF421, and SwF485 thousand, respectively, and it was always higher in women than in men. In men, the average cost for 1 year of life without CHD was SwF30.7, SwF42.5, and SwF51.9 thousand for the ESC, IAS, and ATP-III strategies, respectively, and decreased with age. Statin drug costs represented between 45% and 68% of the overall preventive cost. Changing the cost of statins, inflation rates, or number of fatal and non-fatal cases of CHD averted showed ESC guidelines to be the most cost effective. Conclusion: The cost of CHD prevention using statins depends on the guidelines used. The ESC guidelines appear to yield the lowest costs per year of life gained free of CHD.

Cost effectiveness of a new combined immunosuppressive and antiviral regimen on the one-year follow-up of kidney transplant patients.

Background: Medical prescription after organ transplant must prevent both rejection and infectious complications. We assessed the 1-year effectiveness and cost of introducing a new combined regimen in kidney transplantation. Methods: Patients transplanted from January 2000 to March 2003 (Period 1) were compared to patients transplanted from April 2003 to July 2005 (Period 2). In period 1, patients were treated with Basiliximab, Cyclosporin, steroids and Mycophenolate (MMF) or Azathioprine. Prophylaxis with Valacyclovir was prescribed only in CMV D+/R- patients. In period 2, immunosuppressive drugs were Basiliximab, Tacrolimus, steroids and MMF. A 3-month universal CMV prophylaxis with Valganciclovir was used. Medical charts of outpatient visits allowed identifying drug, laboratory and radiological tests use, and hospital information system causes of hospitalisation and length of stay (LOS) over the first year after transplant. Patients with incomplete costs data were excluded. Results: 53 patients were analysed in period 1, and 60 in period 2. CMV serostatus patterns were not significantly different between the 2 periods. Over 12 months, acute rejection decreased from 22 patients (42%) in period 1 to 4 patients (7%) in period 2 (p<0.001), and CMV infection from 25 patients (47%) to 9 patients (15%, p<0.001). Average total rehospitalisation LOS decreased from 28±19 to 20±11 days (p<0.007). Average outpatient visits decreased from 49±10 to 39±8 (p<0.001). Average immunosuppression and CMV prophylaxis costs increased from US$ 18,362±6,546 to 24,637±5,457 (p<0.001), while average graft rejection costs decreased form US$ 4,135±9,164 to 585±2,850 (p=0.005), and average CMV treatment costs from US$ 2,043±5,545 to 91±293 (p=0.008). Average outpatient visits costs decreased from US$ 7,619±1,549 to 6,074±1,043 (p<0.001), and other hospital costs from US$ 3,801±6,519 to 1,196±3,146 (p=0.007). Altogether, average 1-year treatment costs decreased from US$ 35,961±14,916 to 32,584±6,211 (p=0.115). Cost-effectiveness ratios to avoid graft rejection and CMV infection decreased from US$ 61,482±9,292 to 34,911± 1,639 (p=0.006) and US$ 68,070±11,122 to 39,899±2,650 (p=0.015), respectively. Conclusion: The new combined regimen administered in period 2 was significantly more effective. Its additional cost was more than offset by savings linked with complications avoidance.

Kinship in entrepreneur networks: Performance effects of resource assembly in Africa

We examine the relationship between structural social capital, resource assembly, and firm performance of entrepreneurs in Africa. We posit that social capital primarily composed of kinship or family ties helps the entrepreneur to raise resources, but it does so at a cost. Using data drawn from small firms in Kampala, Uganda, we explore how shared identity among the entrepreneur's social network moderates this relationship. A large network contributed a higher quantity of resources raised, but at a higher cost when shared identity was high. We discuss the implications of these findings for the role of family ties and social capital in resource assembly, with an emphasis on developing economies.