Impact de la prophylaxie hormonale sur les fractures du fémur proximal des femmes postménopausiques: une étude de simulation. [Impact of hormonal prevention on fractures of the proximal femur in postmenopausal women: a simulation study].

A simulation model of the effects of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) on hip fractures and their consequences is based on a population of 100,000 post-menopausal women. This cohort is confronted with literature derived probabilities of cancers (endometrium or breast, which are contra-indications to HRT), hip fracture, disability requiring nursing home or home care, and death. Administration of HRT for life prevents 55,5% of hip fractures, 22,6% of years with home care and 4,4% of years in nursing homes. If HRT is administered for 15 years, these results are 15,5%, 10% and 2,2%, respectively. A slight gain in life expectancy is observed for both durations of HRT. The net financial loss in the simulated population is 222 million Swiss Francs (cost/benefit ratio 1.25) for lifelong administration of HRT, and 153 million Swiss Francs (cost/benefit ratio 1.42) if HRT is administered during 15 years.

Simulit, un modèle de simulation pour la planification hospitalière. [Simulit, a simulation model for hospital planning].

The aim of this computerized simulation model is to provide an estimate of the number of beds used by a population, taking into accounts important determining factors. These factors are demographic data of the deserved population, hospitalization rates, hospital case-mix and length of stay; these parameters can be taken either from observed data or from scenarii. As an example, the projected evolution of the number of beds in Canton Vaud for the period 1893-2010 is presented.

Simulated-annealing-based conditional simulation for the local-scale characterization of heterogeneous aquifers

Simulated-annealing-based conditional simulations provide a flexible means of quantitatively integrating diverse types of subsurface data. Although such techniques are being increasingly used in hydrocarbon reservoir characterization studies, their potential in environmental, engineering and hydrological investigations is still largely unexploited. Here, we introduce a novel simulated annealing (SA) algorithm geared towards the integration of high-resolution geophysical and hydrological data which, compared to more conventional approaches, provides significant advancements in the way that large-scale structural information in the geophysical data is accounted for. Model perturbations in the annealing procedure are made by drawing from a probability distribution for the target parameter conditioned to the geophysical data. This is the only place where geophysical information is utilized in our algorithm, which is in marked contrast to other approaches where model perturbations are made through the swapping of values in the simulation grid and agreement with soft data is enforced through a correlation coefficient constraint. Another major feature of our algorithm is the way in which available geostatistical information is utilized. Instead of constraining realizations to match a parametric target covariance model over a wide range of spatial lags, we constrain the realizations only at smaller lags where the available geophysical data cannot provide enough information. Thus we allow the larger-scale subsurface features resolved by the geophysical data to have much more due control on the output realizations. Further, since the only component of the SA objective function required in our approach is a covariance constraint at small lags, our method has improved convergence and computational efficiency over more traditional methods. Here, we present the results of applying our algorithm to the integration of porosity log and tomographic crosshole georadar data to generate stochastic realizations of the local-scale porosity structure. Our procedure is first tested on a synthetic data set, and then applied to data collected at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site.

Monte Carlo simulation of a clearance box monitor used for nuclear power plant decommissioning.

When decommissioning a nuclear facility it is important to be able to estimate activity levels of potentially radioactive samples and compare with clearance values defined by regulatory authorities. This paper presents a method of calibrating a clearance box monitor based on practical experimental measurements and Monte Carlo simulations. Adjusting the simulation for experimental data obtained using a simple point source permits the computation of absolute calibration factors for more complex geometries with an accuracy of a bit more than 20%. The uncertainty of the calibration factor can be improved to about 10% when the simulation is used relatively, in direct comparison with a measurement performed in the same geometry but with another nuclide. The simulation can also be used to validate the experimental calibration procedure when the sample is supposed to be homogeneous but the calibration factor is derived from a plate phantom. For more realistic geometries, like a small gravel dumpster, Monte Carlo simulation shows that the calibration factor obtained with a larger homogeneous phantom is correct within about 20%, if sample density is taken as the influencing parameter. Finally, simulation can be used to estimate the effect of a contamination hotspot. The research supporting this paper shows that activity could be largely underestimated in the event of a centrally-located hotspot and overestimated for a peripherally-located hotspot if the sample is assumed to be homogeneously contaminated. This demonstrates the usefulness of being able to complement experimental methods with Monte Carlo simulations in order to estimate calibration factors that cannot be directly measured because of a lack of available material or specific geometries.

Ink dating using thermal desorption and gas chromatography / mass spectrometry: comparison of results obtained in two laboratories

Recent ink dating methods focused mainly on changes in solvent amounts occurring over time. A promising method was developed at the Landeskriminalamt of Munich using thermal desorption (TD) followed by gas chromatography / mass spectrometry (GC/MS) analysis. Sequential extractions of the phenoxyethanol present in ballpoint pen ink entries were carried out at two different temperatures. This method is applied in forensic practice and is currently implemented in several laboratories participating to the InCID group (International Collaboration on Ink Dating). However, harmonization of the method between the laboratories proved to be a particularly sensitive and time consuming task. The main aim of this work was therefore to implement the TD-GC/MS method at the Bundeskriminalamt (Wiesbaden, Germany) in order to evaluate if results were comparable to those obtained in Munich. At first validation criteria such as limits of reliable measurements, linearity and repeatability were determined. Samples were prepared in three different laboratories using the same inks and analyzed using two TDS-GC/MS instruments (one in Munich and one in Wiesbaden). The inter- and intra-laboratory variability of the ageing parameter was determined and ageing curves were compared. While inks stored in similar conditions yielded comparable ageing curves, it was observed that significantly different storage conditions had an influence on the resulting ageing curves. Finally, interpretation models, such as thresholds and trend tests, were evaluated and discussed in view of the obtained results. Trend tests were considered more suitable than threshold models. As both approaches showed limitations, an alternative model, based on the slopes of the ageing curves, was also proposed.

Simulation of surface waves in porous media

We present a novel numerical algorithm for the simulation of seismic wave propagation in porous media, which is particularly suitable for the accurate modelling of surface wave-type phenomena. The differential equations of motion are based on Biot's theory of poro-elasticity and solved with a pseudospectral approach using Fourier and Chebyshev methods to compute the spatial derivatives along the horizontal and vertical directions, respectively. The time solver is a splitting algorithm that accounts for the stiffness of the differential equations. Due to the Chebyshev operator the grid spacing in the vertical direction is non-uniform and characterized by a denser spatial sampling in the vicinity of interfaces, which allows for a numerically stable and accurate evaluation of higher order surface wave modes. We stretch the grid in the vertical direction to increase the minimum grid spacing and reduce the computational cost. The free-surface boundary conditions are implemented with a characteristics approach, where the characteristic variables are evaluated at zero viscosity. The same procedure is used to model seismic wave propagation at the interface between a fluid and porous medium. In this case, each medium is represented by a different grid and the two grids are combined through a domain-decomposition method. This wavefield decomposition method accounts for the discontinuity of variables and is crucial for an accurate interface treatment. We simulate seismic wave propagation with open-pore and sealed-pore boundary conditions and verify the validity and accuracy of the algorithm by comparing the numerical simulations to analytical solutions based on zero viscosity obtained with the Cagniard-de Hoop method. Finally, we illustrate the suitability of our algorithm for more complex models of porous media involving viscous pore fluids and strongly heterogeneous distributions of the elastic and hydraulic material properties.

The thermal circuits of the Argentera Massif (western Alps, Italy): An example of low-enthalpy geothermal resources controlled by Neogene alpine tectonics

This work presents geochemistry and structural geology data concerning the low enthalpy geothermal circuits of the Argentera crystalline Massif in northwestern Italian Alps. I n this area some thermal springs (50-60 degreesC), located in the small Bagni di Vinadio village, discharge mixtures made up of a Na-Cl end-member and a Na-SO4 component. The latter is also discharged by the thermal springs of Terme di Valdieri located some kilometres apart within the same tectonic complex. Both end-members share the same meteoric origin and the same reservoir temperature, which is close to 150 degreesC. Explanations are thus required to understand how they reach the surface and how waters of the same origin and circulating in similar rocks can attain such different compositions. Sodium-sulphate waters discharged at both sites, likely represent the common interaction product of meteoric waters with the widespread granitic-migmatitic rocks of the Argentera Massif, whereas Na-CI waters originate through leaching of mineralised cataclastic rocks, which are rich in phyllosilicatic minerals and fluid inclusions, both acting as Cl- sources. Due to the relatively low inferred geothermal gradient of the region, -25C/km, meteoric waters have to descend to depths of 5.5-6 km to attain temperatures of similar to 150 degreesC. These relevant depths can be reached by descending meteoric waters, due to the recent extensional stress field, which allows the development of geothermal circulations at greater depths than in other sectors of the Alps by favouring a greater fractures aperture. The ascent of the thermal waters rakes place along brittle shear zones. In both sites, the thermal waters emerge at the bottoms of the valleys, close to either the lateral termination of a brittle shear zone at Terme di Valdieri, or a step-over between two en-echelon brittle shear zones at Bagni di Vinadio. These observations attest to a strong control operated on the location of outlet regions by both brittle tectonics and the minima in hydraulic potential inside the fractured massif.

Binding free energy differences in a TCR-peptide-MHC complex induced by a peptide mutation: a simulation analysis.

Recognition by the T-cell receptor (TCR) of immunogenic peptides presented by class I major histocompatibility complexes (MHCs) is the determining event in the specific cellular immune response against virus-infected cells or tumor cells. It is of great interest, therefore, to elucidate the molecular principles upon which the selectivity of a TCR is based. These principles can in turn be used to design therapeutic approaches, such as peptide-based immunotherapies of cancer. In this study, free energy simulation methods are used to analyze the binding free energy difference of a particular TCR (A6) for a wild-type peptide (Tax) and a mutant peptide (Tax P6A), both presented in HLA A2. The computed free energy difference is 2.9 kcal/mol, in good agreement with the experimental value. This makes possible the use of the simulation results for obtaining an understanding of the origin of the free energy difference which was not available from the experimental results. A free energy component analysis makes possible the decomposition of the free energy difference between the binding of the wild-type and mutant peptide into its components. Of particular interest is the fact that better solvation of the mutant peptide when bound to the MHC molecule is an important contribution to the greater affinity of the TCR for the latter. The results make possible identification of the residues of the TCR which are important for the selectivity. This provides an understanding of the molecular principles that govern the recognition. The possibility of using free energy simulations in designing peptide derivatives for cancer immunotherapy is briefly discussed.

Oxygen-isotope thermometry of quartz-calcite veins - Unraveling the thermal-tectonic history of the subgreenschist facies Morcles nappe (Swiss Alps)

Combined structural analysis and oxygen isotope thermometry of syntectonic quartz-calcite fibrous veins can be used to correlate the thermal history of deformed rocks,vith specific structural and tectonic events. Results are presented for the Mercies nappe in the western Helvetic Alps, Switzerland, where mineral parageneses, illite `'crystallinity,'' and fluid inclusion chemistry record an apparent peak metamorphic temperature gradient that increased across the Morcles nappe from anchizonal conditions in the foreland to epizonal conditions in its hinterland root zone. Twenty-seven quartz-calcite veins were analyzed in this study in order to determine the temperatures of veining during formation and deformation of the nappe, Peak metamorphic temperatures ranged from approximate to 260 to 290 degrees C in the shallower, foreland localities and to approximate to 330 to 350 degrees C in the deeper, more hinterland localities at the end of S1-foliation formation, related to large-scale folding. Temperatures gradually decreased throughout the nappe during subsequent development of the S2 foliation and S3 crenulation cleavage, Uplift and erosion of the overlying nappe pile resulted in slow cooling of the Morcles nappe during the waning stages of the Alpine Orogeny. The dominant foliation-forming deformation of the Morcles nappe occurred at elevated temperatures over the course of 10 to 15 Ma. Combined structure-oxygen isotope analyses of quartz-calcite veins yield better temperature and temporal constraints on the thermal histories of subgreenschist vein-bearing tectonites than do other geothermometers.

Construction mechanisms and thermal evolution of upper crustal intrusions : the Saint-Jean-du-Doigt bimodal intrusion (Brittany, France)

Understanding the emplacement and growth of intrusive bodies in terms of mechanism, duration, ther¬mal evolution and rates are fundamental aspects of crustal evolution. Recent studies show that many plutons grow in several Ma by in situ accretion of discrete magma pulses, which constitute small-scale magmatic reservoirs. The residence time of magmas, and hence their capacities to interact and differentiate, are con¬trolled by the local thermal environment. The latter is highly dependant on 1) the emplacement depth, 2) the magmas and country rock composition, 3) the country rock thermal conductivity, 4) the rate of magma injection and 5) the geometry of the intrusion. In shallow level plutons, where magmas solidify quickly, evi¬dence for magma mixing and/or differentiation processes is considered by many authors to be inherited from deeper levels. This work shows however that in-situ differentiation and magma interactions occurred within basaltic and felsic sills at shallow depth (0.3 GPa) in the St-Jean-du-Doigt (SJDD) bimodal intrusion, France. This intrusion emplaced ca. 347 Ma ago (IDTIMS U/Pb on zircon) in the Precambrian crust of the Armori- can massif and preserves remarkable sill-like emplacement processes of bimodal mafic-felsic magmas. Field evidence coupled to high precision zircon U-Pb dating document progressive thermal maturation within the incrementally built ioppolith. Early m-thick mafic sills (eastern part) form the roof of the intrusion and are homogeneous and fine-grained with planar contacts with neighboring felsic sills; within a minimal 0.8 Ma time span, the system gets warmer (western part). Sills are emplaced by under-accretion under the old east¬ern part, interact and mingle. A striking feature of this younger, warmer part is in-situ differentiation of the mafic sills in the top 40 cm of the layer, which suggests liquids survival in the shallow crust. Rheological and thermal models were performed in order to determine the parameters required to allow this observed in- situ differentiation-accumulation processes. Strong constraints such as total emplacement durations (ca. 0.8 Ma, TIMS date) and pluton thickness (1.5 Km, gravity model) allow a quantitative estimation of the various parameters required (injection rates, incubation time,...). The results show that in-situ differentiation may be achieved in less than 10 years at such shallow depth, provided that: (1) The differentiating sills are injected beneath consolidated, yet still warm basalt sills, which act as low conductive insulating screens (eastern part formation in the SJDD intrusion). The latter are emplaced in a very short time (800 years) at high injection rate (0.5 m/y) in order to create a "hot zone" in the shallow crust (incubation time). This implies that nearly 1/3 of the pluton (400m) is emplaced by a subsequent and sustained magmatic activity occurring on a short time scale at the very beginning of the system. (2) Once incubation time is achieved, the calculations show that a small hot zone is created at the base of the sill pile, where new injections stay above their solidus T°C and may interact and differentiate. Extraction of differentiated residual liquids might eventually take place and mix with newly injected magma as documented in active syn-emplacement shear-zones within the "warm" part of the pluton. (3) Finally, the model show that in order to maintain a permanent hot zone at shallow level, injection rate must be of 0.03 m/y with injection of 5m thick basaltic sills eveiy 130yr, imply¬ing formation of a 15 km thick pluton. As this thickness is in contradiction with the one calculated for SJDD (1.5 Km) and exceed much the average thickness observed for many shallow level plutons, I infer that there is no permanent hot zone (or magma chambers) at such shallow level. I rather propose formation of small, ephemeral (10-15yr) reservoirs, which represent only small portions of the final size of the pluton. Thermal calculations show that, in the case of SJDD, 5m thick basaltic sills emplaced every 1500 y, allow formation of such ephemeral reservoirs. The latter are formed by several sills, which are in a mushy state and may interact and differentiate during a short time.The mineralogical, chemical and isotopic data presented in this study suggest a signature intermediate be¬tween E-MORB- and arc-like for the SJDD mafic sills and feeder dykes. The mantle source involved produced hydrated magmas and may be astenosphere modified by "arc-type" components, probably related to a sub¬ducting slab. Combined fluid mobile/immobile trace elements and Sr-Nd isotopes suggest that such subduc¬tion components are mainly fluids derived from altered oceanic crust with minor effect from the subducted sediments. Close match between the SJDD compositions and BABB may point to a continental back-arc setting with little crustal contamination. If so, the SjDD intrusion is a major witness of an extensional tectonic regime during the Early-Carboniferous, linked to the subduction of the Rheno-Hercynian Ocean beneath the Variscan terranes. Also of interest is the unusual association of cogenetic (same isotopic compositions) K-feldspar A- type granite and albite-granite. A-type granites may form by magma mixing between the mafic magma and crustal melts. Alternatively, they might derive from the melting of a biotite-bearing quartz-feldspathic crustal protolith triggered by early mafic injections at low crustal levels. Albite-granite may form by plagioclase cu¬mulate remelting issued from A-type magma differentiation.

No major impact of skin aging on the response of skin blood flow to a submaximal local thermal stimulus.

OBJECTIVE: This study was undertaken to investigate how aging affects dermal microvascular reactivity in skin areas differentially exposed to sunlight, and therefore to different degrees of photoaging. METHODS: We assessed, in young (18-30 years, n = 13) and aged males (≥60 years, n = 13), the thigh, forearm, and forehead's skin vasodilatory response to local heating (LTH) with a LDI. In each subject and at each location, local Tskin was brought from 34°C (baseline) to 39 or 41°C for 30 minutes, to effect submaximal vasodilation, with maximal vasodilation then elicited by further heating to 44°C. RESULTS: The CVCs evaluated at baseline and after maximal vasodilation (CVCmax ) were higher in the forehead than in the two other anatomical locations. On all locations, CVCmax decreased with age but less markedly in the forehead compared to the two other locations. When expressed in % of CVCmax , the plateau increase of CVCs in response to submaximal temperatures (39 and 41°C) did not vary with age, and minimally so with location. CONCLUSION: Skin aging, whether intrinsic or combined with photoaging, reduces the maximal vasodilatory capacity of the dermal microcirculation, but not its reactivity to local heating.

Soil diffuse degassing and thermal energy fluxes from the southern Lakki plain, Nisyros (Greece)

Two diffuse soil CO2 flux surveys from the southern Lakki plain show that CO2 is mainly released from the hydrothermal explosion craters. The correspondence between high CO2 fluxes and elevated soil temperatures suggests that a flux of hot hydrothermal fluids ascends towards the surface. Steam mostly condenses near the surface and the heat given off is conductively transferred to the atmosphere through the soil, accompanied by a large CO2 flux. Tt was calculated, that 68 t d(-1) of hydrothermal CO2 are released through the total surveyed area of similar to1.3 km(2) Admitting that a steam flux of 2200 t d(-1) accompanies this CO2 flux, the thermal energy released through steam condensation amounts to 58 MW.

Decreased thermal conductance during the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle in women.

To study the influence of the menstrual cycle on whole body thermal balance and on thermoregulatory mechanisms, metabolic heat production (M) was measured by indirect calorimetry and total heat losses (H) were measured by direct calorimetry in nine women during the follicular (F) and the luteal (L) phases of the menstrual cycle. The subjects were studied while exposed for 90 min to neutral environmental conditions (ambient temperature 28 degrees C, relative humidity 40%) in a direct calorimeter. The values of M and H were not modified by the phase of the menstrual cycle. Furthermore, in both phases the subjects were in thermal equilibrium because M was similar to H (69.7 +/- 1.8 and 72.1 +/- 1.8 W in F and 70.4 +/- 1.9 and 71.4 +/- 1.7 W in L phases, respectively). Tympanic temperature (Tty) was 0.24 +/- 0.07 degrees C higher in the L than in the F phase (P less than 0.05), whereas mean skin temperature (Tsk) was unchanged. Calculated skin thermal conductance (Ksk) was lower in the L (17.9 +/- 0.6 W.m-2.degrees C-1) than in the F phase (20.1 +/- 1.1 W.m-2.degrees C-1; P less than 0.05). Calculated skin blood flow (Fsk) was also lower in the L (0.101 +/- 0.008 l.min-1.m-2) than in the F phase (0.131 +/- 0.015 l.min-1.m-2; P less than 0.05). Differences in Tty, Ksk, and Fsk were not correlated with changes in plasma progesterone concentration. It is concluded that, during the L phase, a decreased thermal conductance in women exposed to a neutral environment allows the maintenance of a higher internal temperature.