Self-selection and risk selection on the Swiss health insurance market

Abstract This thesis presents three empirical studies in the field of health insurance in Switzerland. First we investigate the link between health insurance coverage and health care expenditures. We use claims data for over 60 000 adult individuals covered by a major Swiss Health Insurance Fund, followed for four years; the data show a strong positive correlation between coverage and expenditures. Two methods are developed and estimated in order to separate selection effects (due to individual choice of coverage) and incentive effects ("ex post moral hazard"). The first method uses the comparison between inpatient and outpatient expenditures to identify both effects and we conclude that both selection and incentive effects are significantly present in our data. The second method is based on a structural model of joint demand of health care and health insurance and makes the most of the change in the marginal cost of health care to identify selection and incentive effects. We conclude that the correlation between insurance coverage and health care expenditures may be decomposed into the two effects: 75% may be attributed to selection, and 25 % to incentive effects. Moreover, we estimate that a decrease in the coinsurance rate from 100% to 10% increases the marginal demand for health care by about 90% and from 100% to 0% by about 150%. Secondly, having shown that selection and incentive effects exist in the Swiss health insurance market, we present the consequence of this result in the context of risk adjustment. We show that if individuals choose their insurance coverage in function of their health status (selection effect), the optimal compensations should be function of the se- lection and incentive effects. Therefore, a risk adjustment mechanism which ignores these effects, as it is the case presently in Switzerland, will miss his main goal to eliminate incentives for sickness funds to select risks. Using a simplified model, we show that the optimal compensations have to take into account the distribution of risks through the insurance plans in case of self-selection in order to avoid incentives to select risks.Then, we apply our propositions to Swiss data and propose a simple econometric procedure to control for self-selection in the estimation of the risk adjustment formula in order to compute the optimal compensations.

Prescription de statines en prévention primaire: quel score de risque cardiovasculaire faut-il utiliser en Suisse? [Statin prescription in primary prevention: which cardiovascular risk score should be used in Switzerland?]

La prévention primaire des maladies cardiovasculaires par les médecins s'effectue par une prise en charge individualisée des facteurs de risque. L'indication à un traitement par statines se base sur une estimation du risque de survenue d'une maladie cardiovasculaire et sur le taux de LDL-cholestérol. Trois scores de risque sont couramment utilisés: le score PROCAM, le score Framingham, et le SCORE européen. En Suisse, le Groupe Suisse Lipides et Athérosclérose (GSLA) recommande en première instance l'utilisation du score PROCAM avec une adaptation du niveau de risque pour la Suisse. Une enquête a aussi montré que c'est le score le plus utilisé en Suisse. Dans cet article, les particularités de ces scores et leurs applications pratiques en ce qui concerne la prescription de statines en prévention primaire sont discutées. Les conséquences et les bénéfices potentiels de l'application de ces scores en Suisse sont également abordés. [Abstract] Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease by physicians is achieved by management of individual risk factors. The eligibility for treatment with statins is based on both an estimate of the risk of developing cardiovascular disease and the LDL-cholesterol. Three risk scores are commonly used : the PROCAM score, the Framingham score, and the European score. In Switzerland, the Swiss Group Lipids and Atherosclerosis (GSLA) recommends to use the PROCAM score with an adjustment of the level of risk for Switzerland. A survey also showed that PROCAM is the most used in Switzerland. In this article, the differences of these scores and their practical applications regarding the prescription of statins in primary prevention are discussed. The consequences and potential benefits of applying these scores in Switzerland are also discussed.

Economics of dialysis dependence following renal replacement therapy for critically ill acute kidney injury patients.

BACKGROUND: The obective of this study was to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing intermittent with continuous renal replacement therapy (IRRT versus CRRT) as initial therapy for acute kidney injury (AKI) in the intensive care unit (ICU). METHODS: Assuming some patients would potentially be eligible for either modality, we modeled life year gained, the quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and healthcare costs for a cohort of 1000 IRRT patients and a cohort of 1000 CRRT patients. We used a 1-year, 5-year and a lifetime horizon. A Markov model with two health states for AKI survivors was designed: dialysis dependence and dialysis independence. We applied Weibull regression from published estimates to fit survival curves for CRRT and IRRT patients and to fit the proportion of dialysis dependence among CRRT and IRRT survivors. We then applied a risk ratio reported in a large retrospective cohort study to the fitted CRRT estimates in order to determine the proportion of dialysis dependence for IRRT survivors. We conducted sensitivity analyses based on a range of differences for daily implementation cost between CRRT and IRRT (base case: CRRT day $632 more expensive than IRRT day; range from $200 to $1000) and a range of risk ratios for dialysis dependence for CRRT as compared with IRRT (from 0.65 to 0.95; base case: 0.80). RESULTS: Continuous renal replacement therapy was associated with a marginally greater gain in QALY as compared with IRRT (1.093 versus 1.078). Despite higher upfront costs for CRRT in the ICU ($4046 for CRRT versus $1423 for IRRT in average), the 5-year total cost including the cost of dialysis dependence was lower for CRRT ($37 780 for CRRT versus $39 448 for IRRT on average). The base case incremental cost-effectiveness analysis showed that CRRT dominated IRRT. This dominance was confirmed by extensive sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Initial CRRT is cost-effective compared with initial IRRT by reducing the rate of long-term dialysis dependence among critically ill AKI survivors.

Risk perception by healthcare professionals related to drug use during pregnancy: a Swiss survey.

PRINCIPLE: Healthcare professionals' (HCPs') perception of risk associated with drug use in pregnancy may have an impact on the pharmacological treatment of some women. The aim of this study was to examine this risk perception in a sample of Swiss HCPs with a special focus on their knowledge and use of available specialised information sources. METHOD: An online, French and German, questionnaire was e-mailed to 7,136 members of four Swiss professional societies (gynaecologists, paediatricians, midwives and pharmacists). The questionnaire was designed (a) to collect demographic characteristics, (b) to evaluate the frequency of use of several specialised sources of information on drugs in pregnancy in their daily practice, and (c) to examine the perception of risk associated with drug use during pregnancy. RESULTS: A total of 1,310 questionnaires were collected (response rate of 18.4%). More than 80% of the respondent HCPs use the Swiss Drug Reference Book (Compendium) to assess the risk associated with drugs during pregnancy and are not aware of available specialised information sources (books, websites or information centres). Despite some disparities between HPCs, the risk related to drug intake was overall highly misperceived. Blinded reading of three product monographs in the Compendium was associated with an overestimated perception of risk (e.g., after reading the "paracetamol" monograph, 38% of the participants stated they would probably not advise the use of this drug to a pregnant patient). CONCLUSION: Overall, an overestimation of the risk associated with drug use during pregnancy has been observed in our sample of HCPs, which might be related to the underuse of specialised information source among other factors. These findings evidenced the need for increased training for HCPs in order to optimise medication use during pregnancy. Further studies are needed to confirm these results and identify causes.

Effectiveness of a brief integrative multiple substance use intervention among young men with and without booster sessions.

Brief interventions (BI) commonly employ screening and target a single substance. Multi-substance interventions are a more adequate reflection of risk behaviors in adolescents and young adults. Systematic screening complicates BI in many settings. The effectiveness of a voluntary multi-substance intervention among 19-year-old men and the incremental impact of booster sessions were analyzed. Participants were enrolled during mandatory army conscription in Switzerland. Compared with 461 controls, 392 BI subjects showed reduced substance use on 10 of 12 measures (4 tobacco, 4 cannabis, and 2 alcohol measures). Between-group effects were small and non-significant (except for cannabis use prevalence). Three-month booster sessions were not effective and even contraindicated. The usefulness of targeting multi-substances during BIs without prior screening depends on the value of small effects. The addition of booster sessions was not effective and therefore is not recommended.

Apports de la médecine nucléaire en cardiologie préventive: l'exemple du syndrome métabolique [Value of nuclear medicine in preventive cardiology: the metabolic syndrome example]

Metabolic syndrome represents a grouping of risk factors closely linked to cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. At first, nuclear medicine has no direct application in cardiology at the level of primary prevention, but positron emission tomography is a non invasive imaging technique that can assess myocardial perfusion as well as the endothelium-dependent coronary vasomotion--a surrogate marker of cardiovascular event rate--thus finding an application in studying coronary physiopathology. As the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome is still unknown in Switzerland, we will estimate it from data available in the frame of a health promotion program. Based on the deleterious effect on the endothelium already observed with two components, we will estimate the number of persons at risk in Switzerland.

Frequency, characterisation and therapies of fatigue after stroke.

Post-stroke objective or subjective fatigue occurs in around 50% of patients and is frequent (30%) even after minor strokes. It can last more than one year after the event, and is characterised by a different quality from usual fatigue and good response to rest. Associated risk factors include age, single patients, female, disability, depression, attentional impairment and sometimes posterior strokes, but also inactivity, overweight, alcohol and sleep apnoea syndrome. There are few therapy studies, but treatment may include low-intensity training, cognitive therapy, treatment of associated depression, wakefulness-promoting agents like modafinil, correction of risk factors and adaptation of activities.

Cardiovascular risk estimation and eligibility for statins in primary prevention comparing different strategies

Recommendations for statin use for primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) are based on estimation of the 10-year CHD risk. It is unclear which risk algorithm and guidelines should be used in European populations. Using data from a population-based study in Switzerland, we first assessed 10-year CHD risk and eligibility for statins in 5,683 women and men 35 to 75 years of age without cardiovascular disease by comparing recommendations by the European Society of Cardiology without and with extrapolation of risk to age 60 years, the International Atherosclerosis Society, and the US Adult Treatment Panel III. The proportions of participants classified as high-risk for CHD were 12.5% (15.4% with extrapolation), 3.0%, and 5.8%, respectively. Proportions of participants eligible for statins were 9.2% (11.6% with extrapolation), 13.7%, and 16.7%, respectively. Assuming full compliance to each guideline, expected relative decreases in CHD deaths in Switzerland over a 10-year period would be 16.4% (17.5% with extrapolation), 18.7%, and 19.3%, respectively; the corresponding numbers needed to treat to prevent 1 CHD death would be 285 (340 with extrapolation), 380, and 440, respectively. In conclusion, the proportion of subjects classified as high risk for CHD varied over a fivefold range across recommendations. Following the International Atherosclerosis Society and the Adult Treatment Panel III recommendations might prevent more CHD deaths at the cost of higher numbers needed to treat compared with European Society of Cardiology guidelines.

Assessing small non-zero perceptions of chance: The case of H1N1 (swine) flu risks

Feelings of invulnerability, seen in judgments of 0% risk, can reflect misunderstandings of risk and risk behaviors, suggesting increased need for risk communication. However, judgments of 0% risk may be given by individuals who feel invulnerable, and by individuals who are rounding from small non-zero probabilities. We examined the effect of allowing participants to give more precise responses in the 0-1% range on the validity of reported probability judgments. Participants assessed probabilities for getting H1N1 influenza and dying from it conditional on infection, using a 0-100% visual linear scale. Those responding in the 0-1% range received a follow-up question with more options in that range. This two-step procedure reduced the use of 0% and increased the resolution of responses in the 0-1% range. Moreover, revised probability responses improved predictions of attitudes and self-reported behaviors. Hence, our two-step procedure allows for more precise and more valid measurement of perceived invulnerability. [Authors]

Comparison of the site distribution of melanoma in New Zealand and Canada

A comparison of the site distribution of cutaneous malignant melanoma in New Zealand and Canada was performed. This series deals with 41,331 incident cases registered between 1968 and 1990 and is the largest to date to evaluate the influence of age and gender on the site distribution of melanoma. Site-specific, age-standardized rates per unit surface area and relative tumour density were assessed by gender and country and differences compared with statistical techniques adapted to this context. The age-standardized rates for all sites were higher in New Zealand than in Canada, the ratio being 3.2 for men and 3.8 for women. Occurrence of melanoma was denser for chronically than intermittently exposed sites in both New Zealand and Canada. The highest incidence rate per unit area was for the ears in men which was more than 5 times the rate for the entire body in each country. For each gender, melanomas were relatively commoner on the trunk and the face in Canada, and on the lower limbs in New Zealand. The variations in the site distribution were similar in each country and consistent with the effect of differential patterns of sun exposure between genders. Our results show that the levels of risk of melanoma between phenotypically comparable populations exposed to different amount of UV radiation vary in a site-specific manner, especially for intermittently exposed sites. This suggests that both environmental conditions and lifestyle factors influence the site distribution of melanoma in these two populations.

Photodynamic Diagnosis of Non-muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer with Hexaminolevulinate Cystoscopy: A Meta-analysis of Detection and Recurrence Based on Raw Data.

BACKGROUND: Studies on hexaminolevulinate (HAL) cystoscopy report improved detection of bladder tumours. However, recent meta-analyses report conflicting effects on recurrence. OBJECTIVE: To assess available clinical data for blue light (BL) HAL cystoscopy on the detection of Ta/T1 and carcinoma in situ (CIS) tumours, and on tumour recurrence. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This meta-analysis reviewed raw data from prospective studies on 1345 patients with known or suspected non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC). INTERVENTION: A single application of HAL cystoscopy was used as an adjunct to white light (WL) cystoscopy. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: We studied the detection of NMIBC (intention to treat [ITT]: n=831; six studies) and recurrence (per protocol: n=634; three studies) up to 1 yr. DerSimonian and Laird's random-effects model was used to obtain pooled relative risks (RRs) and associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for outcomes for detection. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: BL cystoscopy detected significantly more Ta tumours (14.7%; p<0.001; odds ratio [OR]: 4.898; 95% CI, 1.937-12.390) and CIS lesions (40.8%; p<0.001; OR: 12.372; 95% CI, 6.343-24.133) than WL. There were 24.9% patients with at least one additional Ta/T1 tumour seen with BL (p<0.001), significant also in patients with primary (20.7%; p<0.001) and recurrent cancer (27.7%; p<0.001), and in patients at high risk (27.0%; p<0.001) and intermediate risk (35.7%; p=0.004). In 26.7% of patients, CIS was detected only by BL (p<0.001) and was also significant in patients with primary (28.0%; p<0.001) and recurrent cancer (25.0%; p<0.001). Recurrence rates up to 12 mo were significantly lower overall with BL, 34.5% versus 45.4% (p=0.006; RR: 0.761 [0.627-0.924]), and lower in patients with T1 or CIS (p=0.052; RR: 0.696 [0.482-1.003]), Ta (p=0.040; RR: 0.804 [0.653-0.991]), and in high-risk (p=0.050) and low-risk (p=0.029) subgroups. Some subgroups had too few patients to allow statistically meaningful analysis. Heterogeneity was minimised by the statistical analysis method used. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis confirms that HAL BL cystoscopy significantly improves the detection of bladder tumours leading to a reduction of recurrence at 9-12 mo. The benefit is independent of the level of risk and is evident in patients with Ta, T1, CIS, primary, and recurrent cancer.

Incidence, complications and risk factors for severe falls in patients on maintenance haemodialysis.

BACKGROUND: Falls have been insufficiently studied in patients on maintenance haemodialysis (MHD). This study assessed the incidence and complications of severe falls and the ability of risk factors, including the Performance-Oriented Mobility Assessment (POMA) test, to predict them in this population. METHODS: All patients on MHD from our centre were asked to participate in this survey. POMA test and a record of risk factors for falls were obtained at baseline. Severe falls, as defined by an admission in an emergency ward, were documented prospectively. RESULTS: Eighty-four patients (median age 69.5 years, minimum 26 years, maximum 85 years) were enrolled. Predialytic POMA scores were low (median 20, minimum 5, maximum 26). After a mean follow-up of 20.6 months (142.2 patient-years), 31 severe falls were recorded in 24 patients (28.6%; incidence 0.22 per patient-year) and complicated by fractures in 54.8% of severe falls. In univariate analysis, age, a past history of falls, malnutrition, depression, but not POMA score, were associated with severe falls. A POMA score of >21 had a negative predictive value of 82%. CONCLUSIONS: Severe falls were common in MHD patients in this study and resulted in fractures in >50% of the cases. They were associated with ageing, a past history of falls, malnutrition and depression. Although there was a trend towards a lower POMA score in fallers as compared to non-fallers, the POMA score was not an independent predictor of severe falls in this study. These data may help to stratify the patient's risk of falling in order to target programmes to prevent falls in this population.

Worlds of working poverty : Cross-national variation in the mechanisms that lead to poverty among workers

The objective of this paper is to distinguish between different types of working poverty, on the basis of the mechanisms that produce it. Whereas the poverty literature identifies a myriad of risk factors and of categories of disadvantaged workers, we focus on three immediate causes of working poverty, namely low wage rate, weak labour force attachment, and high needs, the latter mainly due to the presence of children (and sometimes to the increase in needs caused by a divorce). These three mechanisms are the channels through which macroeconomic, demographic and policy factors have a direct bearing on working households. The main assumption tested here is that welfare regimes strongly influence the relative weight of these three mechanisms in producing working poverty, and, hence, the composition of the working-poor population. Our figures confirm this hypothesis and show that low-wage employment is a key factor, but, by far, not the only one and that family policies broadly understood play a decisive role, as well as patterns of labour market participation and integration.

Host and viral genetic correlates of clinical definitions of HIV-1 disease progression.

Background: Various patterns of HIV-1 disease progression are described in clinical practice and in research. There is a need to assess the specificity of commonly used definitions of long term non-progressor (LTNP) elite controllers (LTNP-EC), viremic controllers (LTNP-VC), and viremic non controllers (LTNP-NC), as well as of chronic progressors (P) and rapid progressors (RP). Methodology and Principal Findings: We re-evaluated the HIV-1 clinical definitions, summarized in Table 1, using the information provided by a selected number of host genetic markers and viral factors. There is a continuous decrease of protective factors and an accumulation of risk factors from LTNP-EC to RP. Statistical differences in frequency of protective HLA-B alleles (p-0.01), HLA-C rs9264942 (p-0.06), and protective CCR5/CCR2 haplotypes (p-0.02) across groups, and the presence of viruses with an ancestral genotype in the "viral dating" (i.e., nucleotide sequences with low viral divergence from the most recent common ancestor) support the differences among principal clinical groups of HIV-1 infected individuals. Conclusions: A combination of host genetic and viral factors supports current clinical definitions that discriminate among patterns of HIV-1 progression. The study also emphasizes the need to apply a standardized and accepted set of clinical definitions for the purpose of disease stratification and research.

Characteristics of highly frequent users of a Swiss academic emergency department: a retrospective consecutive case series.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to describe the demographic, social and medical characteristics, and healthcare use of highly frequent users of a university hospital emergency department (ED) in Switzerland. METHODS: A retrospective consecutive case series was performed. We included all highly frequent users, defined as patients attending the ED 12 times or more within a calendar year (1 January 2009 to 31 December 2009). We collected their characteristics and calculated a score of accumulation of risk factors of vulnerability. RESULTS: Highly frequent users comprised 0.1% of ED patients, and they accounted for 0.8% of all ED attendances (23 patients, 425 attendances). Of all highly frequent users, 87% had a primary care practitioner, 82.6% were unemployed, 73.9% were socially isolated, and 60.9% had a mental health or substance use primary diagnosis. One-third had attempted suicide during study period, all of them being women. They were often admitted (24.0% of attendances), and only 8.7% were uninsured. On average, they cumulated 3.3 different risk factors of vulnerability (SD 1.4). CONCLUSION: Highly frequent users of a Swiss academic ED are a highly vulnerable population. They are in poor health and accumulate several risk factors of being even in poorer health. The small number of patients and their high level of insurance coverage make it particularly feasible to design a specific intervention to approach their needs, in close collaboration with their primary care practitioner. Elaboration of the intervention should focus on social reinsertion and risk-reduction strategies with regard to substance use, hospital admissions and suicide.