Optimal Exchange Rate Policy in a Growing Semi-Open Economy

This paper considers an alternative perspective to China's exchange rate policy. It studies a semi-open economy where the private sector has no access to international capital markets but the central bank has full access. Moreover, it assumes limited financial development generating a large demand for saving instruments by the private sector. The paper analyzes the optimal exchange rate policy by modeling the central bank as a Ramsey planner. Its main result is that in a growth acceleration episode it is optimal to have an initial real depreciation of the currency combined with an accumulation of reserves, which is consistent with the Chinese experience. This depreciation is followed by an appreciation in the long run. The paper also shows that the optimal exchange rate path is close to the one that would result in an economy with full capital mobility and no central bank intervention.

Nutritional behaviour and beliefs of ski-mountaineers: a semi-quantitative and qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Endurance athletes are advised to optimize nutrition prior to races. Little is known about actual athletes' beliefs, knowledge and nutritional behaviour. We monitored nutritional behaviour of amateur ski-mountaineering athletes during 4 days prior to a major competition to compare it with official recommendations and with the athletes' beliefs. METHODS: Participants to the two routes of the 'Patrouille des Glaciers' were recruited (A, 26 km, ascent 1881 m, descent 2341 m, max altitude 3160 m; Z, 53 km, ascent 3994 m, descent 4090 m, max altitude 3650 m). Dietary intake diaries of 40 athletes (21 A, 19 Z) were analysed for energy, carbohydrate, fat, protein and liquid; ten were interviewed about their pre-race nutritional beliefs and behaviour. RESULTS: Despite belief that pre-race carbohydrate, energy and fluid intake should be increased, energy consumption was 2416 ± 696 (mean ± SD) kcal · day(-1), 83 ± 17 % of recommended intake, carbohydrate intake was only 46 ± 13 % of minimal recommended (10 g · kg(-1) · day(-1)) and fluid intake only 2.7 ± 1.0 l · day(-1). CONCLUSIONS: Our sample of endurance athletes did not comply with pre-race nutritional recommendations despite elementary knowledge and belief to be compliant. In these athletes a clear and reflective nutritional strategy was lacking. This suggests a potential for improving knowledge and compliance with recommendations. Alternatively, some recommendations may be unrealistic.

Mind the Gap. Do Proportional Electoral Systems Foster a More Equal Representation of Women and Men, Poor and Rich ?

Female gender and low income are two markers for groups that have been historically disadvantaged within most societies. The study explores two research questions related to their political representation: 1) Are parties ideologically biased towards the ideological preferences of male and rich citizens? 2) Does the proportionality of the electoral system moderate the degree of underrepresentation of women and poor citizens in the party system? A multilevel analysis of survey data from 24 parliamentary democracies indicates that there is some bias against those with low income and, at a much smaller rate, women. This has systemic consequences for the quality of representation, as the preferences of the complementary groups differ. The proportionality of the electoral system influences the degree of underrepresentation: specifically, larger district magnitudes help closing the considerable gap between rich and poor.

Change points detection in crime-related time series: an on-line fuzzy approach based on a shape space representation

The extension of traditional data mining methods to time series has been effectively applied to a wide range of domains such as finance, econometrics, biology, security, and medicine. Many existing mining methods deal with the task of change points detection, but very few provide a flexible approach. Querying specific change points with linguistic variables is particularly useful in crime analysis, where intuitive, understandable, and appropriate detection of changes can significantly improve the allocation of resources for timely and concise operations. In this paper, we propose an on-line method for detecting and querying change points in crime-related time series with the use of a meaningful representation and a fuzzy inference system. Change points detection is based on a shape space representation, and linguistic terms describing geometric properties of the change points are used to express queries, offering the advantage of intuitiveness and flexibility. An empirical evaluation is first conducted on a crime data set to confirm the validity of the proposed method and then on a financial data set to test its general applicability. A comparison to a similar change-point detection algorithm and a sensitivity analysis are also conducted. Results show that the method is able to accurately detect change points at very low computational costs. More broadly, the detection of specific change points within time series of virtually any domain is made more intuitive and more understandable, even for experts not related to data mining.

An automated microreactor for semi-continuous biosensor measurements.

Living bacteria or yeast cells are frequently used as bioreporters for the detection of specific chemical analytes or conditions of sample toxicity. In particular, bacteria or yeast equipped with synthetic gene circuitry that allows the production of a reliable non-cognate signal (e.g., fluorescent protein or bioluminescence) in response to a defined target make robust and flexible analytical platforms. We report here how bacterial cells expressing a fluorescence reporter ("bactosensors"), which are mostly used for batch sample analysis, can be deployed for automated semi-continuous target analysis in a single concise biochip. Escherichia coli-based bactosensor cells were continuously grown in a 13 or 50 nanoliter-volume reactor on a two-layered polydimethylsiloxane-on-glass microfluidic chip. Physiologically active cells were directed from the nl-reactor to a dedicated sample exposure area, where they were concentrated and reacted in 40 minutes with the target chemical by localized emission of the fluorescent reporter signal. We demonstrate the functioning of the bactosensor-chip by the automated detection of 50 μgarsenite-As l(-1) in water on consecutive days and after a one-week constant operation. Best induction of the bactosensors of 6-9-fold to 50 μg l(-1) was found at an apparent dilution rate of 0.12 h(-1) in the 50 nl microreactor. The bactosensor chip principle could be widely applicable to construct automated monitoring devices for a variety of targets in different environments.