Explicit ruin formulas for models with dependence among risks

We show that a simple mixing idea allows one to establish a number of explicit formulas for ruin probabilities and related quantities in collective risk models with dependence among claim sizes and among claim inter-occurrence times. Examples include compound Poisson risk models with completely monotone marginal claim size distributions that are dependent according to Archimedean survival copulas as well as renewal risk models with dependent inter-occurrence times.

Procalcitonin for reduced antibiotic exposure in ventilator-associated pneumonia: a randomised study.

In patients with ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP), guidelines recommend antibiotic therapy adjustment according to microbiology results after 72 h. Circulating procalcitonin levels may provide evidence that facilitates the reduction of antibiotic therapy. In a multicentre, randomised, controlled trial, 101 patients with VAP were assigned to an antibiotic discontinuation strategy according to guidelines (control group) or to serum procalcitonin concentrations (procalcitonin group) with an antibiotic regimen selected by the treating physician. The primary end-point was antibiotic-free days alive assessed 28 days after VAP onset and analysed on an intent-to-treat basis. Procalcitonin determination significantly increased the number of antibiotic free-days alive 28 days after VAP onset (13 (2-21) days versus 9.5 (1.5-17) days). This translated into a reduction in the overall duration of antibiotic therapy of 27% in the procalcitonin group (p = 0.038). After adjustment for age, microbiology and centre effect, the rate of antibiotic discontinuation on day 28 remained higher in the procalcitonin group compared with patients treated according to guidelines (hazard rate 1.6, 95% CI 1.02-2.71). The number of mechanical ventilation-free days alive, intensive care unit-free days alive, length of hospital stay and mortality rate on day 28 for the two groups were similar. Serum procalcitonin reduces antibiotic therapy exposure in patients with ventilator associated pneumonia.

Need of reduced and harmonized bureaucracy in multi-centre clinical research - a case-report from a Swiss trial

Introduction: We launched an investigator-initiated study (ISRCTN31181395) to evaluate the potential benefit of pharmacokinetic-guided dosage individualization of imatinib for leukaemiapatients followed in public and private sectors. Following approval by the research ethics committee (REC) of the coordinating centre, recruitment throughout Switzerland necessitatedto submit the protocol to 11 cantonal RECs.Materials and Methods: We analysed requirements and evaluation procedures of the 12 RECs with associated costs.Results: 1-18 copies of the dossier, in total 4300 printed pages, were required (printing/posting costs: ~300 CHF) to meet initial requirements. Meeting frequencies of RECs ranged between 2 weeks and 2 months, time from submission to fi rst feedback took 2-75 days. Study approval was obtained from a chairman, a subor the full committee, the evaluation work being invoiced by0-1000 CHF (median: 750 CHF, total: 9200 CHF). While 5 RECs gave immediate approval, the other 6 rose in total 38 queries before study release, mainly related to wording in the patient information, leading to 7 different fi nal versions approved. Submission tasks employed an investigator half-time over about 6 months.Conclusion: While the necessity of clinical research evaluation by independent RECs is undisputed, there is a need of further harmonization and cooperation in evaluation procedures. Current administrative burden is indeed complex, time-consuming and costly. A harmonized electronic application form, preferably compatible with other regulatory bodies and European countries, could increase transparency, improve communication, and encourage academic multi-centre clinical research in Switzerland.

Condition, disease and immune defence

Life-history traits and secondary sexual characters often demonstrate condition-dependence, and reproductive success thus ultimately appears to be determined by condition. Here we test the hypothesis that anti-parasite defence is condition-dependent and thus ultimately limits fitness. Animal hosts defend themselves against parasites by an efficient immune system that changes its activity level depending on level of infection. Since immune function is costly, as demonstrated by several field studies, we predicted that large immune defence organs should be maintained when the costs of an elevated immune response were reduced, or when the benefits were increased. Hence, the size of immune defence organs was predicted to increase in response to disease due to increased benefits of investment in immune function, and the; size was predicted to increase in response to high body condition because of reduced costs of investment in immune function. A comparative study of birds demonstrated that the size of the spleen was significantly increased among individuals suffering from parasitic infections and signs of disease as compared to healthy individuals. Furthermore, we found evidence for a positive association between spleen size and body condition. These findings are consistent with the hypothesised cost of immune function and hence a cost of anti-parasite defence.

Tolerance of whitefish embryos to Pseudomonas fluorescens linked to genetic and maternal effects, and reduced by previous exposure.

Juvenile or adult fish can alter their behaviour and rely on an innate and adaptive immune system to avoid/counteract pathogens, while fish embryos have to depend on egg characteristics and may be partly protected by their developing immune system that is building up from a certain age on. We developed an infection protocol that allows testing the reaction of individual whitefish embryos (Coregonus palaea) to repeated exposures to Pseudomonas fluorescens, an opportunistic bacterial fish pathogen. We used a full-factorial in vitro breeding design to separately test the effects of paternal and maternal contributions to the embryos' susceptibility to different kinds of pathogen exposure. We found that a first non-lethal exposure had immunosuppressive effects: pre-exposed embryos were more susceptible to future challenges with the same pathogen. At intermediate and high levels of pathogen intensity, maternal effects turned out to be crucial for the embryos' tolerance to infection. Paternal (i.e. genetic) effects played a significant role at the strongest level of infection, i.e. the embryos' own genetics already explained some of the variation in embryo susceptibility. Our findings suggest that whitefish embryos are largely protected by maternally transmitted substances, but build up some own innate immunocompetence several days before hatching.

Reduced phototropism in pks mutants may be due to altered auxin-regulated gene expression or reduced lateral auxin transport.

Phototropism allows plants to orient their photosynthetic organs towards the light. In Arabidopsis, phototropins 1 and 2 sense directional blue light such that phot1 triggers phototropism in response to low fluence rates, while both phot1 and phot2 mediate this response under higher light conditions. Phototropism results from asymmetric growth in the hypocotyl elongation zone that depends on an auxin gradient across the embryonic stem. How phototropin activation leads to this growth response is still poorly understood. Members of the phytochrome kinase substrate (PKS) family may act early in this pathway, because PKS1, PKS2 and PKS4 are needed for a normal phototropic response and they associate with phot1 in vivo. Here we show that PKS proteins are needed both for phot1- and phot2-mediated phototropism. The phototropic response is conditioned by the developmental asymmetry of dicotyledonous seedlings, such that there is a faster growth reorientation when cotyledons face away from the light compared with seedlings whose cotyledons face the light. The molecular basis for this developmental effect on phototropism is unknown; here we show that PKS proteins play a role at the interface between development and phototropism. Moreover, we present evidence for a role of PKS genes in hypocotyl gravi-reorientation that is independent of photoreceptors. pks mutants have normal levels of auxin and normal polar auxin transport, however they show altered expression patterns of auxin marker genes. This situation suggests that PKS proteins are involved in auxin signaling and/or lateral auxin redistribution.

Examining non-response bias in substance use research-Are late respondents proxies for non-respondents?

BACKGROUND: Non-response is a major concern among substance use epidemiologists. When differences exist between respondents and non-respondents, survey estimates may be biased. Therefore, researchers have developed time-consuming strategies to convert non-respondents to respondents. The present study examines whether late respondents (converted former non-participants) differ from early respondents, non-consenters or silent refusers (consent givers but non-participants) in a cohort study, and whether non-response bias can be reduced by converting former non-respondents. METHODS: 6099 French- and 5720 German-speaking Swiss 20-year-old males (more than 94% of the source population) completed a short questionnaire on substance use outcomes and socio-demographics, independent of any further participation in a cohort study. Early respondents were those participating in the cohort study after standard recruitment procedures. Late respondents were non-respondents that were converted through individual encouraging telephone contact. Early respondents, non-consenters and silent refusers were compared to late respondents using logistic regressions. Relative non-response biases for early respondents only, for respondents only (early and late) and for consenters (respondents and silent refusers) were also computed. RESULTS: Late respondents showed generally higher patterns of substance use than did early respondents, but lower patterns than did non-consenters and silent refusers. Converting initial non-respondents to respondents reduced the non-response bias, which might be further reduced if silent refusers were converted to respondents. CONCLUSION: Efforts to convert refusers are effective in reducing non-response bias. However, converted late respondents cannot be seen as proxies of non-respondents, and are at best only indicative of existing response bias due to persistent non-respondents.

Reduced development of CD4-8-B220+ T cells but normal autoantibody production in lpr/lpr mice lacking major histocompatibility complex class I molecules.

The lpr gene has recently been shown to encode a functional mutation in the Fas receptor, a molecule involved in transducing apoptotic signals. Mice homozygous for the lpr gene develop an autoimmune syndrome accompanied by massive accumulation of double-negative (DN) CD4-8-B220+ T cell receptor-alpha/beta+ cells. In order to investigate the origin of these DN T cells, we derived lpr/lpr mice lacking major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I molecules by intercrossing them with beta 2-microglobulin (beta 2m)-deficient mice. Interestingly, these lpr beta 2m-/- mice develop 13-fold fewer DNT cells in lymph nodes as compared to lpr/lpr wild-type (lprWT) mice. Analysis of anti-DNA antibodies and rheumatoid factor in serum demonstrates that lpr beta 2m-/- mice produce comparable levels of autoantibodies to lprWT mice. Collectively our data indicate that MHC class I molecules control the development of DN T cells but not autoantibody production in lpr/lpr mice and support the hypothesis that the majority of DN T cells may be derived from cells of the CD8 lineage.

A single-base substitution within an intronic repetitive element causes dominant retinitis pigmentosa with reduced penetrance.

We report the study of a large American family displaying autosomal dominant retinitis pigmentosa with reduced penetrance, a form of hereditary retinal degeneration. Although the inheritance pattern and previous linkage mapping pointed to the involvement of the PRPF31 gene, extensive screening of all its exons and their boundaries failed in the past to reveal any mutation. In this work, we sequenced the entire PRPF31 genomic region by both the classical Sanger method and ultrahigh throughput (UHT) sequencing. Among the many variants identified, a single-base substitution (c.1374+654C>G) located deep within intron 13 and inside a repetitive DNA element was common to all patients and obligate asymptomatic carriers. This change created a new splice donor site leading to the synthesis of two mutant PRPF31 isoforms, degraded by nonsense-mediated mRNA decay. As a consequence, amounts of PRPF31 mRNA derived from the mutant allele were very reduced, with no evidence of mutant proteins being synthesized. Our results indicate that c.1374+654C>G causes retinitis pigmentosa via haploinsufficiency, similar to the vast majority of PRPF31 mutations described so far. We discuss the potential of UHT sequencing technologies in mutation screening and the continued identification of pathogenic splicing mutations buried deep within intronic regions.