Exploring transparent approaches to the authentication of signatures on artwork

This thesis is composed of three main parts. The first consists of a state of the art of the different notions that are significant to understand the elements surrounding art authentication in general, and of signatures in particular, and that the author deemed them necessary to fully grasp the microcosm that makes up this particular market. Individuals with a solid knowledge of the art and expertise area, and that are particularly interested in the present study are advised to advance directly to the fourth Chapter. The expertise of the signature, it's reliability, and the factors impacting the expert's conclusions are brought forward. The final aim of the state of the art is to offer a general list of recommendations based on an exhaustive review of the current literature and given in light of all of the exposed issues. These guidelines are specifically formulated for the expertise of signatures on paintings, but can also be applied to wider themes in the area of signature examination. The second part of this thesis covers the experimental stages of the research. It consists of the method developed to authenticate painted signatures on works of art. This method is articulated around several main objectives: defining measurable features on painted signatures and defining their relevance in order to establish the separation capacities between groups of authentic and simulated signatures. For the first time, numerical analyses of painted signatures have been obtained and are used to attribute their authorship to given artists. An in-depth discussion of the developed method constitutes the third and final part of this study. It evaluates the opportunities and constraints when applied by signature and handwriting experts in forensic science. A brief summary covering each chapter allows a rapid overview of the study and summarizes the aims and main themes of each chapter. These outlines presented below summarize the aims and main themes addressed in each chapter. Part I - Theory Chapter 1 exposes legal aspects surrounding the authentication of works of art by art experts. The definition of what is legally authentic, the quality and types of the experts that can express an opinion concerning the authorship of a specific painting, and standard deontological rules are addressed. The practices applied in Switzerland will be specifically dealt with. Chapter 2 presents an overview of the different scientific analyses that can be carried out on paintings (from the canvas to the top coat). Scientific examinations of works of art have become more common, as more and more museums equip themselves with laboratories, thus an understanding of their role in the art authentication process is vital. The added value that a signature expertise can have in comparison to other scientific techniques is also addressed. Chapter 3 provides a historical overview of the signature on paintings throughout the ages, in order to offer the reader an understanding of the origin of the signature on works of art and its evolution through time. An explanation is given on the transitions that the signature went through from the 15th century on and how it progressively took on its widely known modern form. Both this chapter and chapter 2 are presented to show the reader the rich sources of information that can be provided to describe a painting, and how the signature is one of these sources. Chapter 4 focuses on the different hypotheses the FHE must keep in mind when examining a painted signature, since a number of scenarios can be encountered when dealing with signatures on works of art. The different forms of signatures, as well as the variables that may have an influence on the painted signatures, are also presented. Finally, the current state of knowledge of the examination procedure of signatures in forensic science in general, and in particular for painted signatures, is exposed. The state of the art of the assessment of the authorship of signatures on paintings is established and discussed in light of the theoretical facets mentioned previously. Chapter 5 considers key elements that can have an impact on the FHE during his or her2 examinations. This includes a discussion on elements such as the skill, confidence and competence of an expert, as well as the potential bias effects he might encounter. A better understanding of elements surrounding handwriting examinations, to, in turn, better communicate results and conclusions to an audience, is also undertaken. Chapter 6 reviews the judicial acceptance of signature analysis in Courts and closes the state of the art section of this thesis. This chapter brings forward the current issues pertaining to the appreciation of this expertise by the non- forensic community, and will discuss the increasing number of claims of the unscientific nature of signature authentication. The necessity to aim for more scientific, comprehensive and transparent authentication methods will be discussed. The theoretical part of this thesis is concluded by a series of general recommendations for forensic handwriting examiners in forensic science, specifically for the expertise of signatures on paintings. These recommendations stem from the exhaustive review of the literature and the issues exposed from this review and can also be applied to the traditional examination of signatures (on paper). Part II - Experimental part Chapter 7 describes and defines the sampling, extraction and analysis phases of the research. The sampling stage of artists' signatures and their respective simulations are presented, followed by the steps that were undertaken to extract and determine sets of characteristics, specific to each artist, that describe their signatures. The method is based on a study of five artists and a group of individuals acting as forgers for the sake of this study. Finally, the analysis procedure of these characteristics to assess of the strength of evidence, and based on a Bayesian reasoning process, is presented. Chapter 8 outlines the results concerning both the artist and simulation corpuses after their optical observation, followed by the results of the analysis phase of the research. The feature selection process and the likelihood ratio evaluation are the main themes that are addressed. The discrimination power between both corpuses is illustrated through multivariate analysis. Part III - Discussion Chapter 9 discusses the materials, the methods, and the obtained results of the research. The opportunities, but also constraints and limits, of the developed method are exposed. Future works that can be carried out subsequent to the results of the study are also presented. Chapter 10, the last chapter of this thesis, proposes a strategy to incorporate the model developed in the last chapters into the traditional signature expertise procedures. Thus, the strength of this expertise is discussed in conjunction with the traditional conclusions reached by forensic handwriting examiners in forensic science. Finally, this chapter summarizes and advocates a list of formal recommendations for good practices for handwriting examiners. In conclusion, the research highlights the interdisciplinary aspect of signature examination of signatures on paintings. The current state of knowledge of the judicial quality of art experts, along with the scientific and historical analysis of paintings and signatures, are overviewed to give the reader a feel of the different factors that have an impact on this particular subject. The temperamental acceptance of forensic signature analysis in court, also presented in the state of the art, explicitly demonstrates the necessity of a better recognition of signature expertise by courts of law. This general acceptance, however, can only be achieved by producing high quality results through a well-defined examination process. This research offers an original approach to attribute a painted signature to a certain artist: for the first time, a probabilistic model used to measure the discriminative potential between authentic and simulated painted signatures is studied. The opportunities and limits that lie within this method of scientifically establishing the authorship of signatures on works of art are thus presented. In addition, the second key contribution of this work proposes a procedure to combine the developed method into that used traditionally signature experts in forensic science. Such an implementation into the holistic traditional signature examination casework is a large step providing the forensic, judicial and art communities with a solid-based reasoning framework for the examination of signatures on paintings. The framework and preliminary results associated with this research have been published (Montani, 2009a) and presented at international forensic science conferences (Montani, 2009b; Montani, 2012).

Supporting Business Model Modelling: a Compromise between Creativity and Constraints

Diagrams and tools help to support task modelling in engi- neering and process management. Unfortunately they are unfit to help in a business context at a strategic level, because of the flexibility needed for creative thinking and user friendly interactions. We propose a tool which bridges the gap between freedom of actions, encouraging creativity, and constraints, allowing validation and advanced features.

Probabilistic electrical resistivity tomography of a CO2 sequestration analog

Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is a well-established method for geophysical characterization and has shown potential for monitoring geologic CO2 sequestration, due to its sensitivity to electrical resistivity contrasts generated by liquid/gas saturation variability. In contrast to deterministic inversion approaches, probabilistic inversion provides the full posterior probability density function of the saturation field and accounts for the uncertainties inherent in the petrophysical parameters relating the resistivity to saturation. In this study, the data are from benchtop ERT experiments conducted during gas injection into a quasi-2D brine-saturated sand chamber with a packing that mimics a simple anticlinal geological reservoir. The saturation fields are estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion of the measured data and compared to independent saturation measurements from light transmission through the chamber. Different model parameterizations are evaluated in terms of the recovered saturation and petrophysical parameter values. The saturation field is parameterized (1) in Cartesian coordinates, (2) by means of its discrete cosine transform coefficients, and (3) by fixed saturation values in structural elements whose shape and location is assumed known or represented by an arbitrary Gaussian Bell structure. Results show that the estimated saturation fields are in overall agreement with saturations measured by light transmission, but differ strongly in terms of parameter estimates, parameter uncertainties and computational intensity. Discretization in the frequency domain (as in the discrete cosine transform parameterization) provides more accurate models at a lower computational cost compared to spatially discretized (Cartesian) models. A priori knowledge about the expected geologic structures allows for non-discretized model descriptions with markedly reduced degrees of freedom. Constraining the solutions to the known injected gas volume improved estimates of saturation and parameter values of the petrophysical relationship. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic age classification with Bayesian networks: a study on the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis

In the past few decades, the rise of criminal, civil and asylum cases involving young people lacking valid identification documents has generated an increase in the demand of age estimation. The chronological age or the probability that an individual is older or younger than a given age threshold are generally estimated by means of some statistical methods based on observations performed on specific physical attributes. Among these statistical methods, those developed in the Bayesian framework allow users to provide coherent and transparent assignments which fulfill forensic and medico-legal purposes. The application of the Bayesian approach is facilitated by using probabilistic graphical tools, such as Bayesian networks. The aim of this work is to test the performances of the Bayesian network for age estimation recently presented in scientific literature in classifying individuals as older or younger than 18 years of age. For these exploratory analyses, a sample related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis available in scientific literature was used. Results obtained in the classification are promising: in the criminal context, the Bayesian network achieved, on the average, a rate of correct classifications of approximatively 97%, whilst in the civil context, the rate is, on the average, close to the 88%. These results encourage the continuation of the development and the testing of the method in order to support its practical application in casework.

Probabilistic graphical models to deal with age estimation of living persons

Due to the rise of criminal, civil and administrative judicial situations involving people lacking valid identity documents, age estimation of living persons has become an important operational procedure for numerous forensic and medicolegal services worldwide. The chronological age of a given person is generally estimated from the observed degree of maturity of some selected physical attributes by means of statistical methods. However, their application in the forensic framework suffers from some conceptual and practical drawbacks, as recently claimed in the specialised literature. The aim of this paper is therefore to offer an alternative solution for overcoming these limits, by reiterating the utility of a probabilistic Bayesian approach for age estimation. This approach allows one to deal in a transparent way with the uncertainty surrounding the age estimation process and to produce all the relevant information in the form of posterior probability distribution about the chronological age of the person under investigation. Furthermore, this probability distribution can also be used for evaluating in a coherent way the possibility that the examined individual is younger or older than a given legal age threshold having a particular legal interest. The main novelty introduced by this work is the development of a probabilistic graphical model, i.e. a Bayesian network, for dealing with the problem at hand. The use of this kind of probabilistic tool can significantly facilitate the application of the proposed methodology: examples are presented based on data related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis. The reliability and the advantages of this probabilistic tool are presented and discussed.

Keeping the balance? Management of oxidative stress, body mass and reproduction under energetic constraints by dispersing and philopatric collared flycatchers.

Dispersal, i.e. individual movement between breeding sites, is a key process for metapopulation dynamics and gene flow. Its success can be modulated by phenotypic differences between dispersing and philopatric individuals, or dispersal syndromes. However, the environmental (external) and physiological (internal) constraints underlying such syndromes remain poorly known. This project aimed at clarifying the impact of environmental variation and oxidative constraints, linked to the reactive oxygen species produced during respiration, on phenotypes associated to dispersal in a passerine bird, the collared flycatcher Ficedula albicollis. Energetic demand was experimentally (i) increased through a wing load manipulation or (ii) relieved through food supplementation. The oxidative balance of breeding flycatchers was influenced by complex interactions of dispersal status and extrinsic factors (breeding density, year, experimental treatments). Interestingly, antioxidant capacity was influenced both by permanent individual differences and by food availability, whereas measures of pro-oxidants were highly variables within individuals. Environmental variation and energetic constraints also modulated the differences in reproduction associated with dispersal: dispersing and philopatric birds differ in their management of the oxidative balance when it is competing with reproductive investment. This thesis highlights that reaction norms, rather than fixed differences, often shape traits associated to dispersal. ----- Le déplacement d'un individu entre sites de reproduction, ou dispersion, est un processus clé pour la dynamique des métapopulations et les flux de gènes. Son succès peut être modulé par des différences de phénotype, ou syndromes de dispersion. Cependant, les contraintes environnementales et physiologiques qui sous-tendent ces syndromes restent mal connues. Ce projet vise à clarifier l'impact des variations environnementales et des contraintes oxydatives (liées aux espèces réactives de l'oxygène produites durant la respiration) sur les phénotypes associés à la dispersion chez un passereau, le gobemouche à collier Ficedula albicollis. La demande énergétique a été expérimentalement (i) augmentée en manipulant la surface alaire ou (ii) diminuée par une supplémentation en nourriture. L'équilibre oxydo-réducteur des gobemouches en reproduction est influencé par des interactions complexes entre statut de dispersion et facteurs extrinsèques (densité de couples reproducteurs, année, traitement expérimental). La capacité antioxydante dépend principalement de différences permanentes entre individus, alors que les pro-oxydants présentent de grandes variations intra-individu. Environnement et contraintes énergétiques modulent aussi les différences de reproduction liées à la dispersion : les oiseaux dispersants et philopatriques diffèrent dans leur gestion de l'équilibre oxydo-réducteur lorsqu'il est en compétition avec l'investissement reproducteur. Ce travail souligne que les traits associés à la dispersion sont souvent déterminés par des normes de réaction à l'environnement et non des différences fixées entre individus.