83 resultados para Prior Probability


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This study aimed to develop a hip screening tool that combines relevant clinical risk factors (CRFs) and quantitative ultrasound (QUS) at the heel to determine the 10-yr probability of hip fractures in elderly women. The EPISEM database, comprised of approximately 13,000 women 70 yr of age, was derived from two population-based white European cohorts in France and Switzerland. All women had baseline data on CRFs and a baseline measurement of the stiffness index (SI) derived from QUS at the heel. Women were followed prospectively to identify incident fractures. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine the CRFs that contributed significantly to hip fracture risk, and these were used to generate a CRF score. Gradients of risk (GR; RR/SD change) and areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were calculated for the CRF score, SI, and a score combining both. The 10-yr probability of hip fracture was computed for the combined model. Three hundred seven hip fractures were observed over a mean follow-up of 3.2 yr. In addition to SI, significant CRFs for hip fracture were body mass index (BMI), history of fracture, an impaired chair test, history of a recent fall, current cigarette smoking, and diabetes mellitus. The average GR for hip fracture was 2.10 per SD with the combined SI + CRF score compared with a GR of 1.77 with SI alone and of 1.52 with the CRF score alone. Thus, the use of CRFs enhanced the predictive value of SI alone. For example, in a woman 80 yr of age, the presence of two to four CRFs increased the probability of hip fracture from 16.9% to 26.6% and from 52.6% to 70.5% for SI Z-scores of +2 and -3, respectively. The combined use of CRFs and QUS SI is a promising tool to assess hip fracture probability in elderly women, especially when access to DXA is limited.

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Multisensory memory traces established via single-trial exposures can impact subsequent visual object recognition. This impact appears to depend on the meaningfulness of the initial multisensory pairing, implying that multisensory exposures establish distinct object representations that are accessible during later unisensory processing. Multisensory contexts may be particularly effective in influencing auditory discrimination, given the purportedly inferior recognition memory in this sensory modality. The possibility of this generalization and the equivalence of effects when memory discrimination was being performed in the visual vs. auditory modality were at the focus of this study. First, we demonstrate that visual object discrimination is affected by the context of prior multisensory encounters, replicating and extending previous findings by controlling for the probability of multisensory contexts during initial as well as repeated object presentations. Second, we provide the first evidence that single-trial multisensory memories impact subsequent auditory object discrimination. Auditory object discrimination was enhanced when initial presentations entailed semantically congruent multisensory pairs and was impaired after semantically incongruent multisensory encounters, compared to sounds that had been encountered only in a unisensory manner. Third, the impact of single-trial multisensory memories upon unisensory object discrimination was greater when the task was performed in the auditory vs. visual modality. Fourth, there was no evidence for correlation between effects of past multisensory experiences on visual and auditory processing, suggestive of largely independent object processing mechanisms between modalities. We discuss these findings in terms of the conceptual short term memory (CSTM) model and predictive coding. Our results suggest differential recruitment and modulation of conceptual memory networks according to the sensory task at hand.

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Background and aims: Few studies have examined whether subjective experiences during first cannabis use are related to other illicit drug (OID) use. This study investigated this topic. Methods: Baseline data from a representative sample of young Swiss men was obtained from an ongoing Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (N ¼ 5753). Logistic regressions were performed to examine the relationships between cannabis use and of subjective experiences during first cannabis use with 15 OID. Results: Positive experiences increased the likelihood of using hallucinogens (hallucinogens, salvia divinorum, spice; p50.015), stimulants (speed, ecstasy, cocaine, amphetamines/methamphetamines; p50.006) and also poppers, research chemicals, GHB/GBL, and crystal meth (p50.049). Sniffed drugs (poppers, solvents for sniffing) and ''hard'' drugs (heroin, ketamine, research chemicals, GHB/GBL and crystal meth) were more likely to be used by participants who experienced negative feelings on first use of cannabis (p50.034). Conclusion: Subjective feelings seemed to amplify the association of cannabis with OID. The risk increased for drugs with effects resembling feelings experienced on first cannabis use. Negative experiences should also be a concern, as they were associated with increased risk of using the ''hardest'' illicit drugs.

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BACKGROUND AND AIM OF THE STUDY: Percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) are frequently performed before coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. This study sought to evaluate postoperative outcomes, and incidence of recurrent target ischemia in vessels with prior PCI in patients who had PCI prior to CABG compared to only CABG patients. METHODS: A review included CABG patients operated from 2000 to 2012. PCI prior to CABG patients were compared with patients having had CABG on native coronary arteries. Demographic and risk factors, including hospital morbidity, mortality, and recurrent target vessel ischemia at follow-up (FU), were compared. Major end-points were statistical differences of postoperative morbidity and reintervention rates due to symptomatic graft failure or target vessel ischemia during FU. RESULTS: Twenty-four percent of 1669 isolated CABG patients had PCI prior to CABG, with an increasing percentage during recent years. Demographics, risk factors, comorbidities and mortality rates were similar. Incidence of postoperative hemorrhage (OR 1.9; 95% CI 1.1-3.2; p = 0.02), perioperative myocardial infarction rate (p = 0.02), neurological deficits (OR 3.5; 95% CI 1.2-9.7; p = 0.02) and re-intervention rate for symptomatic graft or target vessel occlusion were higher in pretreated patients (OR 1.8; 95% CI 1.1-3.0; p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: PCI prior to CABG increases the risk for postoperative morbidity. Increased postoperative hemorrhage could be attributed to ongoing double anti-platelet therapy. doi: 10.1111/jocs.12514 (J Card Surg 2015;30:313-318).

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The aim of the present study was to determine the impact of trabecular bone score on the probability of fracture above that provided by the clinical risk factors utilized in FRAX. We performed a retrospective cohort study of 33,352 women aged 40-99 years from the province of Manitoba, Canada, with baseline measurements of lumbar spine trabecular bone score (TBS) and FRAX risk variables. The analysis was cohort-specific rather than based on the Canadian version of FRAX. The associations between trabecular bone score, the FRAX risk factors and the risk of fracture or death were examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model and used to calculate 10-year probabilities of fracture with and without TBS and to derive an algorithm to adjust fracture probability to take account of the independent contribution of TBS to fracture and mortality risk. During a mean follow-up of 4.7 years, 1754 women died and 1639 sustained one or more major osteoporotic fractures excluding hip fracture and 306 women sustained one or more hip fracture. When fully adjusted for FRAX risk variables, TBS remained a statistically significant predictor of major osteoporotic fractures excluding hip fracture (HR/SD 1.18, 95 % CI 1.12-1.24), death (HR/SD 1.20, 95 % CI 1.14-1.26) and hip fracture (HR/SD 1.23, 95 % CI 1.09-1.38). Models adjusting major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture probability were derived, accounting for age and trabecular bone score with death considered as a competing event. Lumbar spine texture analysis using TBS is a risk factor for osteoporotic fracture and a risk factor for death. The predictive ability of TBS is independent of FRAX clinical risk factors and femoral neck BMD. Adjustment of fracture probability to take account of the independent contribution of TBS to fracture and mortality risk requires validation in independent cohorts.

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BACKGROUND: The efficacy of first-generation protease inhibitor based triple-therapy against hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is limited in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients with advanced liver fibrosis and non-response to previous peginterferon-ribavirin. These patients have a low chance of achieving a sustained virologic response (SVR) using first generation triple-therapy, with a success rate of only 20%. We investigated the efficacy and safety of lead-in therapy with intravenous silibinin followed by triple-therapy in this difficult-to-treat patient group. METHODOLOGY: Inclusion criteria were HIV/HCV coinfection with advanced liver fibrosis and documented previous treatment failure on peginterferon-ribavirin. The intervention was a lead-in therapy with intravenous silibinin 20 mg/kg/day for 14 days, followed by triple-therapy (peginterferon-ribavirin and telaprevir) for 12 weeks, and peginterferon-ribavirin alone for 36 weeks. Outcome measurements were HCV-RNA after silibinin lead-in and during triple-therapy, SVR data at week 12, and safety and tolerability of silibinin. RESULTS: We examined sixteen HIV/HCV-coinfected patients with previous peginterferon-ribavirin failure, of whom 14 had a fibrosis grade METAVIR ≥F3. All were on successful antiretroviral therapy. Median (IQR) HCV-RNA decline after silibinin therapy was 2.65 (2.1-2.8) log10 copies/mL. Fifteen of sixteen patients (94%) had undetectable HCV RNA at weeks 4 and 12, eleven patients (69%) showed end-of-treatment response (i.e., undetectable HCV-RNA at week 48), and ten patients (63%) reached SVR at week 12 (SVR 12). Six of the sixteen patients (37%) did not reach SVR 12: One patient had rapid virologic response (RVR) (i.e., undetectable HCV-RNA at week 4) but stopped treatment at week 8 due to major depression. Five patients had RVR, but experienced viral breakthroughs at week 21, 22, 25, or 32, or a relapse at week 52. The HIV RNA remained below the limit of detection in all patients during the complete treatment period. No serious adverse events and no significant drug-drug interactions were associated with silibinin. CONCLUSION: A lead-in with silibinin before triple-therapy was safe and highly effective in difficult-to-treat HIV/HCV coinfected patients, with a pronounced HCV-RNA decline during the lead-in phase, which translates into 63% SVR. An add-on of intravenous silibinin to standard of care HCV treatment is worth further exploration in selected difficult-to-treat patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01816490.

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Introduction: The Violence Medical Unit (VMU), a specialised forensic medical consultation, was created at the Lausanne university Hospital in 2006. All patients consulting at the ED for interpersonal violencerelated injury are referred to the VMU, which provides forensic documentation of the injury and referral to the relevant community based victim-support organisations within 48 hours of the ED visit. This frees the ED medical staff from forensic injury documentation and legal/social referral, tasks for which they lack both time and training. Among community violence, assaults by nightclub security agents against patrons have increased from 6% to 10% between 2007 and 2009. We set out to characterise the demographics, assault mechanisms, subsequent injuries, prior alcohol intake and ED & VMU costs incurred by this group of patients. Methods: We retrospectively included all patients consulting at the VMU due to assault by nightclub security agents from January 2007 to December 2009. Data was obtained from ED & VMU medical, nursing and administrative records. Results: Our sample included 70 patients, of which 64 were referred by the CHUV ED. The victims were typically young (median age 29) males (93%). 77% of assaults occurred on the weekend between 12 PM and 4 AM, and 73% of the victims were under the influence of alcohol. 83% of the patients were punched, kicked and/or head-butted; 9% had been struck with a blunt instrument. 80% of the injuries were in the head and neck area and 19% of the victims sustained fractures. 21% of the victims were prescribed medical leave. Total ED & VMU costs averaged 1048 SFr. Conclusion: Medical staff treating this population of assault victims must be aware of the assault mechanisms and injury patterns, in particular the high probability of fractures, in order to provide adequate diagnosis and care. Associated inebriation mandates liberal use of radiology, as delayed or missed diagnosis may have medical, medicolegal and legal implications. Emergency medical services play an important role in detecting and reporting of such incidents. Centralised management of the forensic documentation facilitates referral to victim support organisations and epidemiological data collection. Magnitudes and trends of the different types of violence can be determined, and this information can be then impact public safety management policies.