On the efficiency of recursive evaluations with applications to risk theory

On the efficiency of recursive evaluations with applications to risk theoryCette thèse est composée de trois essais qui portent sur l'efficacité des évaluations récursives de la distribution du montant total des sinistres d'un portefeuille de polices d'assurance au cours d'un période donnée. Le calcul de sa fonction de probabilité ou de quantités liées à cette distribution apparaît fréquemment dans la plupart des domaines de la pratique actuarielle.C'est le cas notamment pour le calcul du capital de solvabilité en Suisse ou pour modéliser la perte d'une assurance vie au cours d'une année. Le principal problème des évaluations récursives est que la propagation des erreurs provenant de la représentation des nombres réels par l'ordinateur peut être désastreuse. Mais, le gain de temps qu'elles procurent en réduisant le nombre d'opérations arithmétiques est substantiel par rapport à d'autres méthodes.Dans le premier essai, nous utilisons certaines propriétés d'un outil informatique performant afin d'optimiser le temps de calcul tout en garantissant une certaine qualité dans les résultats par rapport à la propagation de ces erreurs au cours de l'évaluation.Dans le second essai, nous dérivons des expressions exactes et des bornes pour les erreurs qui se produisent dans les fonctions de distribution cumulatives d'un ordre donné lorsque celles-ci sont évaluées récursivement à partir d'une approximation de la transformée de De Pril associée. Ces fonctions cumulatives permettent de calculer directement certaines quantités essentielles comme les primes stop-loss.Finalement, dans le troisième essai, nous étudions la stabilité des évaluations récursives de ces fonctions cumulatives par rapport à la propagation des erreurs citées ci-dessus et déterminons la précision nécessaire dans la représentation des nombres réels afin de garantir des résultats satisfaisants. Cette précision dépend en grande partie de la transformée de De Pril associée.

Coculture of bladder urothelial and smooth muscle cells on small intestinal submucosa: potential applications for tissue engineering technology.

PURPOSE: Small intestinal submucosa is a xenogenic, acellular, collagen rich membrane with inherent growth factors that has previously been shown to promote in vivo bladder regeneration. We evaluate in vitro use of small intestinal submucosa to support the individual and combined growth of bladder urothelial cells and smooth muscle cells for potential use in tissue engineering techniques, and in vitro study of the cellular mechanisms involved in bladder regeneration. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Primary cultures of human bladder urothelial cells and smooth muscle cells were established using standard enzymatic digestion or explant techniques. Cultured cells were then seeded on small intestinal submucosa at a density of 1 x 105 cells per cm.2, incubated and harvested at 3, 7, 14 and 28 days. The 5 separate culture methods evaluated were urothelial cells seeded alone on the mucosal surface of small intestinal submucosa, smooth muscle cells seeded alone on the mucosal surface, layered coculture of smooth muscle cells seeded on the mucosal surface followed by urothelial cells 1 hour later, sandwich coculture of smooth muscle cells seeded on the serosal surface followed by seeding of urothelial cells on the mucosal surface 24 hours later, and mixed coculture of urothelial cells and smooth muscle cells mixed and seeded together on the mucosal surface. Following harvesting at the designated time points small intestinal submucosa cell constructs were formalin fixed and processed for routine histology including Masson trichrome staining. Specific cell growth characteristics were studied with particular attention to cell morphology, cell proliferation and layering, cell sorting, presence of a pseudostratified urothelium and matrix penetrance. To aid in the identification of smooth muscle cells and urothelial cells in the coculture groups, immunohistochemical analysis was performed with antibodies to alpha-smooth muscle actin and cytokeratins AE1/AE3. RESULTS: Progressive 3-dimensional growth of urothelial cells and smooth muscle cells occurred in vitro on small intestinal submucosa. When seeded alone urothelial cells and smooth muscle cells grew in several layers with minimal to no matrix penetration. In contrast, layered, mixed and sandwich coculture methods demonstrated significant enhancement of smooth muscle cell penetration of the membrane. The layered and sandwich coculture techniques resulted in organized cell sorting, formation of a well-defined pseudostratified urothelium and multilayered smooth muscle cells with enhanced matrix penetration. With the mixed coculture technique there was no evidence of cell sorting although matrix penetrance by the smooth muscle cells was evident. Immunohistochemical studies demonstrated that urothelial cells and smooth muscle cells maintain the expression of the phenotypic markers of differentiation alpha-smooth muscle actin and cytokeratins AE1/AE3. CONCLUSIONS: Small intestinal submucosa supports the 3-dimensional growth of human bladder cells in vitro. Successful combined growth of bladder cells on small intestinal submucosa with different seeding techniques has important future clinical implications with respect to tissue engineering technology. The results of our study demonstrate that there are important smooth muscle cell-epithelial cell interactions involved in determining the type of in vitro cell growth that occurs on small intestinal submucosa. Small intestinal submucosa is a valuable tool for in vitro study of the cell-cell and cell-matrix interactions that are involved in regeneration and various disease processes of the bladder.

Adeno-associated virus (AAV) vectors achieve prolonged transgene expression in mouse myocardium and arteries in vivo: a comparative study with adenovirus vectors.

Plasmid DNA and adenovirus vectors currently used in cardiovascular gene therapy trials are limited by low efficiency and short-lived transgene expression, respectively. Recombinant adeno-associated virus (AAV) has recently emerged as an attractive vector for cardiovascular gene therapy. In the present study, we have compared AAV and adenovirus vectors with respect to gene transfer efficiency and the duration of transgene expression in mouse hearts and arteries in vivo. AAV vectors (titer: 5 x 10(8) transducing units (TU)/ml) and adenovirus vectors (1.2 x 10(10) TU/ml) expressing a green fluorescent protein (EGFP) gene were injected either intramyocardially (n=32) or intrapericardially (n=3) in CD-1 mice. Hearts were harvested at varying time intervals (3 days to 1 year) after gene delivery. After intramyocardial injection of 5 microl virus stock solution, cardiomyocyte transduction rates with AAV vectors were 4-fold lower than with adenovirus vectors (1.5% (range: 0.5-2.6%) vs. 6.2% (range: 2.7-13.7%); P<0.05), but similar to titer-matched adenovirus vectors (0.7%; range: 0.2-1.2%). AAV-mediated EGFP expression lasted for at least 1 year. AAV vectors instilled into the pericardial space transduced epicardial myocytes. Arterial gene transfer was studied in mouse carotids (n=26). Both vectors selectively transduced endothelial cells after luminal instillation. Transduction rates with AAV vectors were 8-fold lower than with adenovirus vectors (2.0% (range: 0-3.2%) vs. 16.2% (range: 8.5-20.2%); P<0.05). Prolonged EGFP expression was observed after AAV but not adenovirus-mediated gene transfer. In conclusion, AAV vectors deliver and express genes for extended periods of time in the myocardium and arterial endothelium in vivo. AAV vectors may be useful for gene therapy approaches to chronic cardiovascular diseases.

Projecting the self to past and future in mental time

Introduction: Human experience takes place in the line of mental-time (MT) created through imagination of oneself in different time-points in past or future (self-projection in time). Here we manipulated self-projection in MT not only with respect to one's life-events but also with respect to one's faces from different past and future time-points. Methods: We here compared MTT with respect to one's facial images from different time points in past and future (study 1: MT-faces) as well as with respect to different past and future life events (study 2: MT-events). Participants were asked to make judgments about past and future face images and past and future events from three different time-points: the present (Now), eight years earlier (Past) or eight years later (Future). In addition, as a control task participants were asked to make recognition judgments with respect to faces and memory-related judgments with respect to events without changing their habitual self-location in time. Behavioral measures and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) activity after subtraction of recognition and memory related activities show both absolute MT and relative MT effects for faces and events, signifying a fundamental brain mechanism of MT, disentangled from episodic memory functions. Results: Behavioural and event-related fMRI activity showed three independent effects characterized by (1) similarity between past recollection and future imagination, (2) facilitation of judgments related to the future as compared to the past, and (3) facilitation of judgments related to time-points distant from the present. These effects were found with respect to faces and events suggesting that the brain mechanisms of MT are independent of whether actual life episodes have to be re-/pre-experienced and recruited a common cerebral network including the medial-temporal, precuneus, inferior-frontal, temporo-parietal, and insular cortices. Conclusions: These behavioural and neural data suggest that self-projection in time is a crucial aspect of MT, relying on neural structures encoding memory, mental imagery, and self. Furthermore our results emphasize the idea that mental temporal processing is more strongly directed to future prediction than to past recollection.

Video-assisted thoracoscopic resection of a small pulmonary nodule after computed tomography-guided localization with a hook-wire system. Experience in 45 consecutive patients.

BACKGROUND: This study is a single-institution validation of video-assisted thoracoscopic (VATS) resection of a small solitary pulmonary nodule (SPN) previously localized by a CT-guided hook-wire system in a consecutive series of 45 patients. METHODS: The records of all patients undergoing VATS resection for SPN preoperatively localized by CT-guided a hook-wire system from January 2002 to December 2004 were assessed with respect to failure to localize the lesion by the hook-wire system, conversion thoracotomy rate, duration of operation, postoperative complications, and histology of SPN. RESULTS: Forty-five patients underwent 49 VATS resections, with simultaneous bilateral SPN resection performed in 4. Preoperative CT-guided hook-wire localization failed in two patients (4%). Conversion thoracotomy was necessary in two patients (4%) because it was not possible to resect the lesion by a VATS approach. The average operative time was 50 min. Postoperative complications occurred in 3 patients (6%), one hemothorax and two pneumonia. The mean hospital stay was 5 days (range: 2-18 days). Histological assessment revealed inflammatory disease in 17 patients (38%), metastasis in 17 (38%), non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in 4 (9%), lymphoma in 3 (6%), interstitial fibrosis in 2 (4%), histiocytoma in one (2%), and hamartoma in one (2%). CONCLUSIONS: Histological analysis of resected SPN revealed unexpected malignant disease in more than 50% of the patients indicating that histological clarification of SPN seems warranted. Video-assisted thoracoscopic resection of SPN previously localized by a CT-guided hook-wire system is related to a low conversion thoracotomy rate, a short operation time, and few postoperative complications, and it is well suited for the clarification of SPN.

Multiscale descriptions of density-driven flow instabilities in porous media

Les instabilités engendrées par des gradients de densité interviennent dans une variété d'écoulements. Un exemple est celui de la séquestration géologique du dioxyde de carbone en milieux poreux. Ce gaz est injecté à haute pression dans des aquifères salines et profondes. La différence de densité entre la saumure saturée en CO2 dissous et la saumure environnante induit des courants favorables qui le transportent vers les couches géologiques profondes. Les gradients de densité peuvent aussi être la cause du transport indésirable de matières toxiques, ce qui peut éventuellement conduire à la pollution des sols et des eaux. La gamme d'échelles intervenant dans ce type de phénomènes est très large. Elle s'étend de l'échelle poreuse où les phénomènes de croissance des instabilités s'opèrent, jusqu'à l'échelle des aquifères à laquelle interviennent les phénomènes à temps long. Une reproduction fiable de la physique par la simulation numérique demeure donc un défi en raison du caractère multi-échelles aussi bien au niveau spatial et temporel de ces phénomènes. Il requiert donc le développement d'algorithmes performants et l'utilisation d'outils de calculs modernes. En conjugaison avec les méthodes de résolution itératives, les méthodes multi-échelles permettent de résoudre les grands systèmes d'équations algébriques de manière efficace. Ces méthodes ont été introduites comme méthodes d'upscaling et de downscaling pour la simulation d'écoulements en milieux poreux afin de traiter de fortes hétérogénéités du champ de perméabilité. Le principe repose sur l'utilisation parallèle de deux maillages, le premier est choisi en fonction de la résolution du champ de perméabilité (grille fine), alors que le second (grille grossière) est utilisé pour approximer le problème fin à moindre coût. La qualité de la solution multi-échelles peut être améliorée de manière itérative pour empêcher des erreurs trop importantes si le champ de perméabilité est complexe. Les méthodes adaptatives qui restreignent les procédures de mise à jour aux régions à forts gradients permettent de limiter les coûts de calculs additionnels. Dans le cas d'instabilités induites par des gradients de densité, l'échelle des phénomènes varie au cours du temps. En conséquence, des méthodes multi-échelles adaptatives sont requises pour tenir compte de cette dynamique. L'objectif de cette thèse est de développer des algorithmes multi-échelles adaptatifs et efficaces pour la simulation des instabilités induites par des gradients de densité. Pour cela, nous nous basons sur la méthode des volumes finis multi-échelles (MsFV) qui offre l'avantage de résoudre les phénomènes de transport tout en conservant la masse de manière exacte. Dans la première partie, nous pouvons démontrer que les approximations de la méthode MsFV engendrent des phénomènes de digitation non-physiques dont la suppression requiert des opérations de correction itératives. Les coûts de calculs additionnels de ces opérations peuvent toutefois être compensés par des méthodes adaptatives. Nous proposons aussi l'utilisation de la méthode MsFV comme méthode de downscaling: la grille grossière étant utilisée dans les zones où l'écoulement est relativement homogène alors que la grille plus fine est utilisée pour résoudre les forts gradients. Dans la seconde partie, la méthode multi-échelle est étendue à un nombre arbitraire de niveaux. Nous prouvons que la méthode généralisée est performante pour la résolution de grands systèmes d'équations algébriques. Dans la dernière partie, nous focalisons notre étude sur les échelles qui déterminent l'évolution des instabilités engendrées par des gradients de densité. L'identification de la structure locale ainsi que globale de l'écoulement permet de procéder à un upscaling des instabilités à temps long alors que les structures à petite échelle sont conservées lors du déclenchement de l'instabilité. Les résultats présentés dans ce travail permettent d'étendre les connaissances des méthodes MsFV et offrent des formulations multi-échelles efficaces pour la simulation des instabilités engendrées par des gradients de densité. - Density-driven instabilities in porous media are of interest for a wide range of applications, for instance, for geological sequestration of CO2, during which CO2 is injected at high pressure into deep saline aquifers. Due to the density difference between the C02-saturated brine and the surrounding brine, a downward migration of CO2 into deeper regions, where the risk of leakage is reduced, takes place. Similarly, undesired spontaneous mobilization of potentially hazardous substances that might endanger groundwater quality can be triggered by density differences. Over the last years, these effects have been investigated with the help of numerical groundwater models. Major challenges in simulating density-driven instabilities arise from the different scales of interest involved, i.e., the scale at which instabilities are triggered and the aquifer scale over which long-term processes take place. An accurate numerical reproduction is possible, only if the finest scale is captured. For large aquifers, this leads to problems with a large number of unknowns. Advanced numerical methods are required to efficiently solve these problems with today's available computational resources. Beside efficient iterative solvers, multiscale methods are available to solve large numerical systems. Originally, multiscale methods have been developed as upscaling-downscaling techniques to resolve strong permeability contrasts. In this case, two static grids are used: one is chosen with respect to the resolution of the permeability field (fine grid); the other (coarse grid) is used to approximate the fine-scale problem at low computational costs. The quality of the multiscale solution can be iteratively improved to avoid large errors in case of complex permeability structures. Adaptive formulations, which restrict the iterative update to domains with large gradients, enable limiting the additional computational costs of the iterations. In case of density-driven instabilities, additional spatial scales appear which change with time. Flexible adaptive methods are required to account for these emerging dynamic scales. The objective of this work is to develop an adaptive multiscale formulation for the efficient and accurate simulation of density-driven instabilities. We consider the Multiscale Finite-Volume (MsFV) method, which is well suited for simulations including the solution of transport problems as it guarantees a conservative velocity field. In the first part of this thesis, we investigate the applicability of the standard MsFV method to density- driven flow problems. We demonstrate that approximations in MsFV may trigger unphysical fingers and iterative corrections are necessary. Adaptive formulations (e.g., limiting a refined solution to domains with large concentration gradients where fingers form) can be used to balance the extra costs. We also propose to use the MsFV method as downscaling technique: the coarse discretization is used in areas without significant change in the flow field whereas the problem is refined in the zones of interest. This enables accounting for the dynamic change in scales of density-driven instabilities. In the second part of the thesis the MsFV algorithm, which originally employs one coarse level, is extended to an arbitrary number of coarse levels. We prove that this keeps the MsFV method efficient for problems with a large number of unknowns. In the last part of this thesis, we focus on the scales that control the evolution of density fingers. The identification of local and global flow patterns allows a coarse description at late times while conserving fine-scale details during onset stage. Results presented in this work advance the understanding of the Multiscale Finite-Volume method and offer efficient dynamic multiscale formulations to simulate density-driven instabilities. - Les nappes phréatiques caractérisées par des structures poreuses et des fractures très perméables représentent un intérêt particulier pour les hydrogéologues et ingénieurs environnementaux. Dans ces milieux, une large variété d'écoulements peut être observée. Les plus communs sont le transport de contaminants par les eaux souterraines, le transport réactif ou l'écoulement simultané de plusieurs phases non miscibles, comme le pétrole et l'eau. L'échelle qui caractérise ces écoulements est définie par l'interaction de l'hétérogénéité géologique et des processus physiques. Un fluide au repos dans l'espace interstitiel d'un milieu poreux peut être déstabilisé par des gradients de densité. Ils peuvent être induits par des changements locaux de température ou par dissolution d'un composé chimique. Les instabilités engendrées par des gradients de densité revêtent un intérêt particulier puisque qu'elles peuvent éventuellement compromettre la qualité des eaux. Un exemple frappant est la salinisation de l'eau douce dans les nappes phréatiques par pénétration d'eau salée plus dense dans les régions profondes. Dans le cas des écoulements gouvernés par les gradients de densité, les échelles caractéristiques de l'écoulement s'étendent de l'échelle poreuse où les phénomènes de croissance des instabilités s'opèrent, jusqu'à l'échelle des aquifères sur laquelle interviennent les phénomènes à temps long. Etant donné que les investigations in-situ sont pratiquement impossibles, les modèles numériques sont utilisés pour prédire et évaluer les risques liés aux instabilités engendrées par les gradients de densité. Une description correcte de ces phénomènes repose sur la description de toutes les échelles de l'écoulement dont la gamme peut s'étendre sur huit à dix ordres de grandeur dans le cas de grands aquifères. Il en résulte des problèmes numériques de grande taille qui sont très couteux à résoudre. Des schémas numériques sophistiqués sont donc nécessaires pour effectuer des simulations précises d'instabilités hydro-dynamiques à grande échelle. Dans ce travail, nous présentons différentes méthodes numériques qui permettent de simuler efficacement et avec précision les instabilités dues aux gradients de densité. Ces nouvelles méthodes sont basées sur les volumes finis multi-échelles. L'idée est de projeter le problème original à une échelle plus grande où il est moins coûteux à résoudre puis de relever la solution grossière vers l'échelle de départ. Cette technique est particulièrement adaptée pour résoudre des problèmes où une large gamme d'échelle intervient et évolue de manière spatio-temporelle. Ceci permet de réduire les coûts de calculs en limitant la description détaillée du problème aux régions qui contiennent un front de concentration mobile. Les aboutissements sont illustrés par la simulation de phénomènes tels que l'intrusion d'eau salée ou la séquestration de dioxyde de carbone.

Quantitative antibiogram as a typing method for the prospective epidemiological surveillance and control of MRSA: comparison with molecular typing.

OBJECTIVE: Evaluation of the quantitative antibiogram as an epidemiological tool for the prospective typing of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), and comparison with ribotyping. METHODS: The method is based on the multivariate analysis of inhibition zone diameters of antibiotics in disk diffusion tests. Five antibiotics were used (erythromycin, clindamycin, cotrimoxazole, gentamicin, and ciprofloxacin). Ribotyping was performed using seven restriction enzymes (EcoRV, HindIII, KpnI, PstI, EcoRI, SfuI, and BamHI). SETTING: 1,000-bed tertiary university medical center. RESULTS: During a 1-year period, 31 patients were found to be infected or colonized with MRSA. Cluster analysis of antibiogram data showed nine distinct antibiotypes. Four antibiotypes were isolated from multiple patients (2, 4, 7, and 13, respectively). Five additional antibiotypes were isolated from the remaining five patients. When analyzed with respect to the epidemiological data, the method was found to be equivalent to ribotyping. Among 206 staff members who were screened, six were carriers of MRSA. Both typing methods identified concordant of MRSA types in staff members and in the patients under their care. CONCLUSIONS: The quantitative antibiogram was found to be equivalent to ribotyping as an epidemiological tool for typing of MRSA in our setting. Thus, this simple, rapid, and readily available method appears to be suitable for the prospective surveillance and control of MRSA for hospitals that do not have molecular typing facilities and in which MRSA isolates are not uniformly resistant or susceptible to the antibiotics tested.

Worldwide trends in gastric cancer mortality (1980-2011), with predictions to 2015, and incidence by subtype.

Gastric cancer incidence and mortality decreased substantially over the last decades in most countries worldwide, with differences in the trends and distribution of the main topographies across regions. To monitor recent mortality trends (1980-2011) and to compute short-term predictions (2015) of gastric cancer mortality in selected countries worldwide, we analysed mortality data provided by the World Health Organization. We also analysed incidence of cardia and non-cardia cancers using data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (2003-2007). The joinpoint regression over the most recent calendar periods gave estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) around -3% for the European Union (EU) and major European countries, as well as in Japan and Korea, and around -2% in North America and major Latin American countries. In the United States of America (USA), EU and other major countries worldwide, the EAPC, however, were lower than in previous years. The predictions for 2015 show that a levelling off of rates is expected in the USA and a few other countries. The relative contribution of cardia and non-cardia gastric cancers to the overall number of cases varies widely, with a generally higher proportion of cardia cancers in countries with lower gastric cancer incidence and mortality rates (e.g. the USA, Canada and Denmark). Despite the favourable mortality trends worldwide, in some countries the declines are becoming less marked. There still is the need to control Helicobacter pylori infection and other risk factors, as well as to improve diagnosis and management, to further reduce the burden of gastric cancer.

Upper Triassic to Cretaceous radiolaria from Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica - The Mesquito composite oceanic terrane

We propose a new terrane subdivision of Nicaragua and Northern Costa Rica, based on Upper Triassic to Upper Cretaceous radiolarian biochronology of ribbon radiolarites, the newly studied Siuna Serpentinite Mélange, and published 40Ar/39Ar dating and geochemistry of mafic and ultramafic igneous rock units of the area. The new Mesquito Composite Oceanic Terrane (MCOT) comprises the southern half of the Chortis Block, that was assumed to be a continental fragment of N-America. The MCOT is defined by 4 corner localities characterized by ultramafic and mafic oceanic rocks and radiolarites of Late Triassic, Jurassic and Early Cretaceous age: 1. The Siuna Serpentinite Mélange (NE-Nicaragua), 2. The El Castillo Mélange (Nicaragua/Costa Rica border), 3.The Santa Elena Ultramafics (N-Costa Rica) and, 4. DSDP Legs 67/84. 1. The Siuna Serpentinite Mélange contains, high pressure metamorphic mafics and Middle Jurassic (Bajocian-Bathonian) radiolarites in original, sedimentary contact with arc-metandesites. The Siuna Mélange also contains Upper Jurassic black detrital chert formed in a marginal (fore-arc?) basin shortly before subduction. A phengite 40Ar/39Ar -cooling age dates the exhumation of the high pressure rocks as 139 Ma (earliest Cretaceous). 2. The El Castillo Mélange comprises a radiolarite block tectonically embedded in serpentinite that yielded a diverse Rhaetian (latest Triassic) radiolarian assemblage, the oldest fossils recovered so far from S-Central America. 3. The Santa Elena Ultramafics of N-Costa Rica together with the serpentinite outcrops near El Castillo (2) in Southern Nicaragua, are the southernmost outcrops of the MCOT. The Santa Elena Unit (3) itself is still undated, but it is thrust onto the middle Cretaceous Santa Rosa Accretionary Complex (SRAC), that contains Lower to Upper Jurassic, highly deformed radiolarite blocks, probably reworked from the MCOT, which was the upper plate with respect to the SRAC. 4. Serpentinites, metagabbros and basalts have long been known from DSDP Leg 67/84 (3), drilled off Guatemala in the Nicaragua-Guatemala forearc basement. They have been restudied and reveal 40Ar/39Ar dated Upper Triassic to middle Cretaceous enriched Ocean Island Basalts and Jurassic to Lower Cretaceous depleted Island arc rocks of probable Pacific origin. The area between localities 1-4 is largely covered by Tertiary to Recent arcs, but we suspect that its basement is made of oceanic/accreted terranes. Earthquake seismic studies indicate an ill-defined, shallow Moho in this area. The MCOT covers most of Nicaragua and could extend to Guatemala to the W and form the Lower (southern) Nicaragua Rise to the NE. Some basement complexes of Jamaica, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico may also belong to the MCOT. The Nicoya Complex s. str. has been regarded as an example of Caribbean crust and the Caribbean Large Igneous Province (CLIP). However, 40Ar/39Ar - dates on basalts and intrusives indicate ages as old as Early Cretaceous. Highly deformed Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous radiolarites occur as blocks within younger intrusives and basalts. Our interpretation is that radiolarites became first accreted to the MCOT, then became reworked into the Nicoya Plateau in Late Cretaceous times. This implies that the Nicoya Plateau formed along the Pacific edge of the MCOT, independent form the CLIP and most probably unrelated with he Galapagos hotspot. No Jurassic radiolarite, no older sediment age than Coniacian-Santonian, and no older 40Ar/39Ar age than 95 Ma is known from S-Central America between SE of Nicoya and Colombia. For us this area represents the trailing edge of the CLIP s. str.

Processus de reconnaissance et d'identification de personnes décédées

Recognition and identification processes for deceased persons. Determining the identity of deceased persons is a routine task performed essentially by police departments and forensic experts. This thesis highlights the processes necessary for the proper and transparent determination of the civil identities of deceased persons. The identity of a person is defined as the establishment of a link between that person ("the source") and information pertaining to the same individual ("identifiers"). Various identity forms could emerge, depending on the nature of the identifiers. There are two distinct types of identity, namely civil identity and biological identity. The paper examines four processes: identification by witnesses (the recognition process) and comparisons of fingerprints, dental data and DNA profiles (the identification processes). During the recognition process, the memory function is examined and helps to clarify circumstances that may give rise to errors. To make the process more rigorous, a body presentation procedure is proposed to investigators. Before examining the other processes, three general concepts specific to forensic science are considered with regard to the identification of a deceased person, namely, matter divisibility (Inman and Rudin), transfer (Locard) and uniqueness (Kirk). These concepts can be applied to the task at hand, although some require a slightly broader scope of application. A cross comparison of common forensic fields and the identification of deceased persons reveals certain differences, including 1 - reverse positioning of the source (i.e. the source is not sought from traces, but rather the identifiers are obtained from the source); 2 - the need for civil identity determination in addition to the individualisation stage; and 3 - a more restricted population (closed set), rather than an open one. For fingerprints, dental and DNA data, intravariability and intervariability are examined, as well as changes in these post mortem (PM) identifiers. Ante-mortem identifiers (AM) are located and AM-PM comparisons made. For DNA, it has been shown that direct identifiers (taken from a person whose civil identity has been alleged) tend to lead to determining civil identity whereas indirect identifiers (obtained from a close relative) direct towards a determination of biological identity. For each process, a Bayesian model is presented which includes sources of uncertainty deemed to be relevant. The results of the different processes combine to structure and summarise an overall outcome and a methodology. The modelling of dental data presents a specific difficulty with respect to intravariability, which in itself is not quantifiable. The concept of "validity" is, therefore, suggested as a possible solution to the problem. Validity uses various parameters that have an acknowledged impact on teeth intravariability. In cases where identifying deceased persons proves to be extremely difficult due to the limited discrimination of certain procedures, the use of a Bayesian approach is of great value in bringing a transparent and synthetic value. RESUME : Titre: Processus de reconnaissance et d'identification de personnes décédées. L'individualisation de personnes décédées est une tâche courante partagée principalement par des services de police, des odontologues et des laboratoires de génétique. L'objectif de cette recherche est de présenter des processus pour déterminer valablement, avec une incertitude maîtrisée, les identités civiles de personnes décédées. La notion d'identité est examinée en premier lieu. L'identité d'une personne est définie comme l'établissement d'un lien entre cette personne et des informations la concernant. Les informations en question sont désignées par le terme d'identifiants. Deux formes distinctes d'identité sont retenues: l'identité civile et l'identité biologique. Quatre processus principaux sont examinés: celui du témoignage et ceux impliquant les comparaisons d'empreintes digitales, de données dentaires et de profils d'ADN. Concernant le processus de reconnaissance, le mode de fonctionnement de la mémoire est examiné, démarche qui permet de désigner les paramètres pouvant conduire à des erreurs. Dans le but d'apporter un cadre rigoureux à ce processus, une procédure de présentation d'un corps est proposée à l'intention des enquêteurs. Avant d'entreprendre l'examen des autres processus, les concepts généraux propres aux domaines forensiques sont examinés sous l'angle particulier de l'identification de personnes décédées: la divisibilité de la matière (Inman et Rudin), le transfert (Locard) et l'unicité (Kirk). Il est constaté que ces concepts peuvent être appliqués, certains nécessitant toutefois un léger élargissement de leurs principes. Une comparaison croisée entre les domaines forensiques habituels et l'identification de personnes décédées montre des différences telles qu'un positionnement inversé de la source (la source n'est plus à rechercher en partant de traces, mais ce sont des identifiants qui sont recherchés en partant de la source), la nécessité de devoir déterminer une identité civile en plus de procéder à une individualisation ou encore une population d'intérêt limitée plutôt qu'ouverte. Pour les empreintes digitales, les dents et l'ADN, l'intra puis l'inter-variabilité sont examinées, de même que leurs modifications post-mortem (PM), la localisation des identifiants ante-mortem (AM) et les comparaisons AM-PM. Pour l'ADN, il est démontré que les identifiants directs (provenant de la personne dont l'identité civile est supposée) tendent à déterminer une identité civile alors que les identifiants indirects (provenant d'un proche parent) tendent à déterminer une identité biologique. Puis une synthèse des résultats provenant des différents processus est réalisée grâce à des modélisations bayesiennes. Pour chaque processus, une modélisation est présentée, modélisation intégrant les paramètres reconnus comme pertinents. À ce stade, une difficulté apparaît: celle de quantifier l'intra-variabilité dentaire pour laquelle il n'existe pas de règle précise. La solution préconisée est celle d'intégrer un concept de validité qui intègre divers paramètres ayant un impact connu sur l'intra-variabilité. La possibilité de formuler une valeur de synthèse par l'approche bayesienne s'avère d'une aide précieuse dans des cas très difficiles pour lesquels chacun des processus est limité en termes de potentiel discriminant.

Stem cell-related "self-renewal" signature and high epidermal growth factor receptor expression associated with resistance to concomitant chemoradiotherapy in glioblastoma.

PURPOSE: Glioblastomas are notorious for resistance to therapy, which has been attributed to DNA-repair proficiency, a multitude of deregulated molecular pathways, and, more recently, to the particular biologic behavior of tumor stem-like cells. Here, we aimed to identify molecular profiles specific for treatment resistance to the current standard of care of concomitant chemoradiotherapy with the alkylating agent temozolomide. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Gene expression profiles of 80 glioblastomas were interrogated for associations with resistance to therapy. Patients were treated within clinical trials testing the addition of concomitant and adjuvant temozolomide to radiotherapy. RESULTS: An expression signature dominated by HOX genes, which comprises Prominin-1 (CD133), emerged as a predictor for poor survival in patients treated with concomitant chemoradiotherapy (n = 42; hazard ratio = 2.69; 95% CI, 1.38 to 5.26; P = .004). This association could be validated in an independent data set. Provocatively, the HOX cluster was reminiscent of a "self-renewal" signature (P = .008; Gene Set Enrichment Analysis) recently characterized in a mouse leukemia model. The HOX signature and EGFR expression were independent prognostic factors in multivariate analysis, adjusted for the O-6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) methylation status, a known predictive factor for benefit from temozolomide, and age. Better outcome was associated with gene clusters characterizing features of tumor-host interaction including tumor vascularization and cell adhesion, and innate immune response. CONCLUSION: This study provides first clinical evidence for the implication of a "glioma stem cell" or "self-renewal" phenotype in treatment resistance of glioblastoma. Biologic mechanisms identified here to be relevant for resistance will guide future targeted therapies and respective marker development for individualized treatment and patient selection.

Neural networks as mechanisms to regulate division of labor.

Abstract In social insects, workers perform a multitude of tasks, such as foraging, nest construction, and brood rearing, without central control of how work is allocated among individuals. It has been suggested that workers choose a task by responding to stimuli gathered from the environment. Response-threshold models assume that individuals in a colony vary in the stimulus intensity (response threshold) at which they begin to perform the corresponding task. Here we highlight the limitations of these models with respect to colony performance in task allocation. First, we show with analysis and quantitative simulations that the deterministic response-threshold model constrains the workers' behavioral flexibility under some stimulus conditions. Next, we show that the probabilistic response-threshold model fails to explain precise colony responses to varying stimuli. Both of these limitations would be detrimental to colony performance when dynamic and precise task allocation is needed. To address these problems, we propose extensions of the response-threshold model by adding variables that weigh stimuli. We test the extended response-threshold model in a foraging scenario and show in simulations that it results in an efficient task allocation. Finally, we show that response-threshold models can be formulated as artificial neural networks, which consequently provide a comprehensive framework for modeling task allocation in social insects.

Learning wind fields with multiple kernels

This paper presents multiple kernel learning (MKL) regression as an exploratory spatial data analysis and modelling tool. The MKL approach is introduced as an extension of support vector regression, where MKL uses dedicated kernels to divide a given task into sub-problems and to treat them separately in an effective way. It provides better interpretability to non-linear robust kernel regression at the cost of a more complex numerical optimization. In particular, we investigate the use of MKL as a tool that allows us to avoid using ad-hoc topographic indices as covariables in statistical models in complex terrains. Instead, MKL learns these relationships from the data in a non-parametric fashion. A study on data simulated from real terrain features confirms the ability of MKL to enhance the interpretability of data-driven models and to aid feature selection without degrading predictive performances. Here we examine the stability of the MKL algorithm with respect to the number of training data samples and to the presence of noise. The results of a real case study are also presented, where MKL is able to exploit a large set of terrain features computed at multiple spatial scales, when predicting mean wind speed in an Alpine region.

Randomised trial of oral versus sequential intravenous/oral cephalosporins in children with pyelonephritis.

The hypothesis was tested that oral antibiotic treatment in children with acute pyelonephritis and scintigraphy-documented lesions is equally as efficacious as sequential intravenous/oral therapy with respect to the incidence of renal scarring. A randomised multi-centre trial was conducted in 365 children aged 6 months to 16 years with bacterial growth in cultures from urine collected by catheter. The children were assigned to receive either oral ceftibuten (9 mg/kg once daily) for 14 days or intravenous ceftriaxone (50 mg/kg once daily) for 3 days followed by oral ceftibuten for 11 days. Only patients with lesions detected on acute-phase dimercaptosuccinic acid (DMSA) scintigraphy underwent follow-up scintigraphy. Efficacy was evaluated by the rate of renal scarring after 6 months on follow-up scintigraphy. Of 219 children with lesions on acute-phase scintigraphy, 152 completed the study; 80 (72 females, median age 2.2 years) were given ceftibuten and 72 (62 females, median age 1.6 years) were given ceftriaxone/ceftibuten. Patients in the intravenous/oral group had significantly higher C-reactive protein (CRP) concentrations at baseline and larger lesion(s) on acute-phase scintigraphy. Follow-up scintigraphy showed renal scarring in 21/80 children treated with ceftibuten and 33/72 with ceftriaxone/ceftibuten (p = 0.01). However, after adjustment for the confounding variables (CRP and size of acute-phase lesion), no significant difference was observed for renal scarring between the two groups (p = 0.2). Renal scarring correlated with the extent of the acute-phase lesion (r = 0.60, p < 0.0001) and the grade of vesico-ureteric reflux (r = 0.31, p = 0.03), and was more frequent in refluxing renal units (p = 0.04). The majority of patients, i.e. 44 in the oral group and 47 in the intravenous/oral group, were managed as out-patients. Side effects were not observed. From this study, we can conclude that once-daily oral ceftibuten for 14 days yielded comparable results to sequential ceftriaxone/ceftibuten treatment in children aged 6 months to 16 years with DMSA-documented acute pyelonephritis and it allowed out-patient management in the majority of these children.