The future of terrestrial mammals in the Mediterranean basin under climate change.

The Mediterranean basin is considered a hotspot of biological diversity with a long history of modification of natural ecosystems by human activities, and is one of the regions that will face extensive changes in climate. For 181 terrestrial mammals (68% of all Mediterranean mammals), we used an ensemble forecasting approach to model the future (approx. 2100) potential distribution under climate change considering five climate change model outputs for two climate scenarios. Overall, a substantial number of Mediterranean mammals will be severely threatened by future climate change, particularly endemic species. Moreover, we found important changes in potential species richness owing to climate change, with some areas (e.g. montane region in central Italy) gaining species, while most of the region will be losing species (mainly Spain and North Africa). Existing protected areas (PAs) will probably be strongly influenced by climate change, with most PAs in Africa, the Middle East and Spain losing a substantial number of species, and those PAs gaining species (e.g. central Italy and southern France) will experience a substantial shift in species composition.

Owl melanin-based plumage redness is more frequent near than away from the equator: implications on the effect of climate change on biodiversity

Climate change acts as a major new selective agent on many organisms, particularly at high latitudes where climate change is more pronounced than at lower latitudes. Studies are required to predict which species are at a high risk of extinction and whether certain phenotypes may be more affected by climate change than others. The identification of susceptible phenotypes is important for evaluating the potential negative effect of climate change on biodiversity at the inter- and intraspecific levels. Melanin-based coloration is an interesting and easily accessible candidate trait because, within certain species, reddish pheomelanin-based coloration is associated with adaptations to warm climates. However, it is unclear whether the same holds among species. We tested one prediction of this hypothesis in four owl genera (wood, scops, screech, and pygmy owls), namely that darker reddish species are more prevalent near the equator than polewards. Our comparative analysis is consistent with this prediction for the northern hemisphere, suggesting that pale reddish species may be adapted to cold climates and dark reddish species to warmer climates. Thus, climate change may have a larger negative impact on pale pheomelanic owls and favour dark pheomelanic species.

European climate variations over the past half-millennium reconstructed from groundwater

Temperature reconstructions for recent centuries are the basis of estimations of the natural variability in the climate system before and during the onset of anthropogenic perturbation. Here we present, for the first time, an independent and physically based reconstruction of mean annual temperature over the past half millennium obtained from groundwater in France. The reconstructed noble gas temperature (NGT) record suggests cooler than present climate conditions throughout the 16th-19th centuries. Periods of warming occur in the 17th-18th and 20th century, while cooling is reconstructed in the 19th century. A noticeable coincidence with other temperature records is demonstrated. Deuterium excess varies in parallel with the NGT, and indicates variation in the seasonality of the aquifer recharge; whereas high excess air in groundwater indicates periods with high oscillations of the water table.

Continent wide response of mountain vegetation to climate change

Climate impact studies have indicated ecological fingerprints of recent global warming across a wide range of habitats. Whereas these studies have shown responses from various local case studies, a coherent large-scale account on temperature-driven changes of biotic communities has been lacking. Here we use 867 vegetation samples above the treeline from 60 summit sites in all major European mountain systems to show that ongoing climate change gradually transforms mountain plant communities. We provide evidence that the more cold-adapted species decline and the more warm-adapted species increase, a process described here as thermophilisation. At the scale of individual mountains this general trend may not be apparent, but at the¦larger, continental scale we observed a significantly higher abundance of thermophilic species in 2008, compared with 2001. Thermophilisation of mountain plant communities mirrors the degree of recent warming and is more pronounced in areas where the temperature increase has been higher. In view of the projected climate change the observed transformation suggests a progressive decline of cold mountain habitats and their biota.

Climate and human forcing of Alpine river flow

River flow in Alpine environments is likely to be highly sensitive to climate change because of the effects of warming upon snow and ice, and hence the intra-annual distribution of river runoff. It is also likely to be influenced strongly by human impacts both upon hydrology (e.g. flow abstraction) and river regulation. This paper compares the river flow and sediment flux of two Alpine drainage basins over the last 5 to 7 decades, one that is largely unimpacted by human activities, one strongly impacted by flow abstraction for hydroelectricity. The analysis shows that both river flow and sediment transport capacity are strongly dependent upon the effects of temperature and precipitation availability upon snow accumulation. As the latter tends to increase annual maximum flows, and given the non-linear form of most sediment transport laws, current warming trends may lead to increased sedimentation in Alpine rivers. However, extension to a system impacted upon by flow abstraction reveals the dominant effect that human activity can have upon river sedimentation but also how human response to sediment management has co-evolved with climate forcing to make disentangling the two very difficult.

Climate Change, Neutrality and the Harm Principle

This paper aims at evaluating the compatibility of coercive climate policies with liberal neutrality. More precisely, it focuses on the doctrine of state neutrality as associated with the "harm principle". It argues that given the difficulty of attributing causal responsibilities for climate harms to individuals, the harm principle doesn't work in this case, at least if one endorses a liberal atomistic ontology. Furthermore, the definition of what constitutes climate harms implies making moral assumptions, which makes it impossible to justify climate policies in a neutral way. Finally, the paper shows another consequence of applying neutrality to the case of climate change, that is the risk of a shift from political forms of decision-making to technocracy. Focusing too much on liberty of choice may (paradoxically) be to the detriment of political freedom. The paper concludes that climate change is an intrinsically moral issue and that it should be the occasion of a political debate about our current values and lifestyles. It should not be reduced to a mere question of carbon metric.

Genomic evidence for role of inversion 3RP of Drosophila melanogaster in facilitating climate change adaptation.

Chromosomal inversion polymorphisms are common in animals and plants, and recent models suggest that alternative arrangements spread by capturing different combinations of alleles acting additively or epistatically to favour local adaptation. It is also thought that inversions typically maintain favoured combinations for a long time by suppressing recombination between alternative chromosomal arrangements. Here, we consider patterns of linkage disequilibrium and genetic divergence in an old inversion polymorphism in Drosophila melanogaster (In(3R)Payne) known to be associated with climate change adaptation and a recent invasion event into Australia. We extracted, karyotyped and sequenced whole chromosomes from two Australian populations, so that changes in the arrangement of the alleles between geographically separated tropical and temperate areas could be compared. Chromosome-wide linkage disequilibrium (LD) analysis revealed strong LD within the region spanned by In(3R)Payne. This genomic region also showed strong differentiation between the tropical and the temperate populations, but no differentiation between different karyotypes from the same population, after controlling for chromosomal arrangement. Patterns of differentiation across the chromosome arm and in gene ontologies were enhanced by the presence of the inversion. These data support the notion that inversions are strongly selected by bringing together combinations of genes, but it is still not clear if such combinations act additively or epistatically. Our data suggest that climatic adaptation through inversions can be dynamic, reflecting changes in the relative abundance of different forms of an inversion and ongoing evolution of allelic content within an inversion.

Fire management, climate change and their interacting effects on birds in complex Mediterranean landscapes: dynamic distribution modelling of an early-successional species - the near-threatened Dartford Warbler (Sylvia undata)

The current challenge in a context of major environmental changes is to anticipate the responses of species to future landscape and climate scenarios. In the Mediterranean basin, climate change is one the most powerful driving forces of fire dynamics, with fire frequency and impact having markedly increased in recent years. Species distribution modelling plays a fundamental role in this challenge, but better integration of available ecological knowledge is needed to adequately guide conservation efforts. Here, we quantified changes in habitat suitability of an early-succession bird in Catalonia, the Dartford Warbler (Sylvia undata) ― globally evaluated as Near Threatened in the IUCN Red List. We assessed potential changes in species distributions between 2000 and 2050 under different fire management and climate change scenarios and described landscape dynamics using a spatially-explicit fire-succession model that simulates fire impacts in the landscape and post-fire regeneration (MEDFIRE model). Dartford Warbler occurrence data were acquired at two different spatial scales from: 1) the Atlas of European Breeding Birds (EBCC) and 2) Catalan Breeding Bird Atlas (CBBA). Habitat suitability was modelled using five widely-used modelling techniques in an ensemble forecasting framework. Our results indicated considerable habitat suitability losses (ranging between 47% and 57% in baseline scenarios), which were modulated to a large extent by fire regime changes derived from fire management policies and climate changes. Such result highlighted the need for taking the spatial interaction between climate changes, fire-mediated landscape dynamics and fire management policies into account for coherently anticipating habitat suitability changes of early succession bird species. We conclude that fire management programs need to be integrated into conservation plans to effectively preserve sparsely forested and early succession habitats and their associated species in the face of global environmental change.

Phylogeny and biogeography of Primula sect. Armerina: implications for plant evolution under climate change and the uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

BACKGROUND: The historical orogenesis and associated climatic changes of mountain areas have been suggested to partly account for the occurrence of high levels of biodiversity and endemism. However, their effects on dispersal, differentiation and evolution of many groups of plants are still unknown. In this study, we examined the detailed diversification history of Primula sect. Armerina, and used biogeographic analysis and macro-evolutionary modeling to investigate a series of different questions concerning the evolution of the geographical and ecological distribution of the species in this section. RESULTS: We sequenced five chloroplast and one nuclear genes for species of Primula sect. Armerina. Neither chloroplast nor nuclear trees support the monophyly of the section. The major incongruences between the two trees occur among closely related species and may be explained by hybridization. Our dating analyses based on the chloroplast dataset suggest that this section began to diverge from its relatives around 3.55 million years ago, largely coinciding with the last major uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Biogeographic analysis supports the origin of the section in the Himalayan Mountains and dispersal from the Himalayas to Northeastern QTP, Western QTP and Hengduan Mountains. Furthermore, evolutionary models of ecological niches show that the two P. fasciculata clades have significantly different climatic niche optima and rates of niche evolution, indicating niche evolution under climatic changes and further providing evidence for explaining their biogeographic patterns. CONCLUSION: Our results support the hypothesis that geologic and climatic events play important roles in driving biological diversification of organisms in the QTP area. The Pliocene uplift of the QTP and following climatic changes most likely promoted both the inter- and intraspecific divergence of Primula sect. Armerina. This study also illustrates how niche evolution under climatic changes influences biogeographic patterns.

Climate niche conservatism does not explain restricted distribution patterns in Tynanthus (Bignonieae, Bignoniaceae)

Studies on niche evolution allow us to establish how species niches have changed over time as well as to identify how long-term evolutionary processes have led to present-day species distributions. Here, we investigate the patterns of climatic niche evolution in Tynanthus (Bignonieae, Bignoniaceae), a genus comprising narrowly distributed species. We test the hypothesis that niche conservatism has played an important role in the diversification history of this group of Neotropical lianas. For that, we perform univariate and multivariate comparisons between species' climatic niches and associated environmental data with information on species' phylogenetic relationships. We encountered considerable divergence in niches among species, indicating that niche conservatism in climatic variables has does not seem to havenot played a key role in the diversification of the genus. Our results are used as a basis to discuss patterns of ecological niche evolution in the group and to suggest novel approaches for future analyses.

A spatial modelling framework for assessing climate change impacts on freshwater ecosystems: Response of brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) biomass to warming water temperature

Mountain regions worldwide are particularly sensitive to on-going climate change. Specifically in the Alps in Switzerland, the temperature has increased twice as fast than in the rest of the Northern hemisphere. Water temperature closely follows the annual air temperature cycle, severely impacting streams and freshwater ecosystems. In the last 20 years, brown trout (Salmo trutta L) catch has declined by approximately 40-50% in many rivers in Switzerland. Increasing water temperature has been suggested as one of the most likely cause of this decline. Temperature has a direct effect on trout population dynamics through developmental and disease control but can also indirectly impact dynamics via food-web interactions such as resource availability. We developed a spatially explicit modelling framework that allows spatial and temporal projections of trout biomass using the Aare river catchment as a model system, in order to assess the spatial and seasonal patterns of trout biomass variation. Given that biomass has a seasonal variation depending on trout life history stage, we developed seasonal biomass variation models for three periods of the year (Autumn-Winter, Spring and Summer). Because stream water temperature is a critical parameter for brown trout development, we first calibrated a model to predict water temperature as a function of air temperature to be able to further apply climate change scenarios. We then built a model of trout biomass variation by linking water temperature to trout biomass measurements collected by electro-fishing in 21 stations from 2009 to 2011. The different modelling components of our framework had overall a good predictive ability and we could show a seasonal effect of water temperature affecting trout biomass variation. Our statistical framework uses a minimum set of input variables that make it easily transferable to other study areas or fish species but could be improved by including effects of the biotic environment and the evolution of demographical parameters over time. However, our framework still remains informative to spatially highlight where potential changes of water temperature could affect trout biomass. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.-

The effects of safety climate and trust on job satisfaction

Job satisfaction has been a frequently studied concept in organizational behavior. Past research has shown that trust in top management is an important factor influencing job satisfaction. To date, little attention has been paid to safety climate perceptions as a possible predictor of job satisfaction. In our study we investigated the direct and interactive effects of trust in top management and individual-level perceptions of safety climate in predicting job satisfaction. The findings of this study point to the importance of positive perceptions of safety climate on employees' job satisfaction when trust in top management is low.