Evidence-based Economic Policy - Three Essays in Applied Microeconometrics

Over thirty years ago, Leamer (1983) - among many others - expressed doubts about the quality and usefulness of empirical analyses for the economic profession by stating that "hardly anyone takes data analyses seriously. Or perhaps more accurately, hardly anyone takes anyone else's data analyses seriously" (p.37). Improvements in data quality, more robust estimation methods and the evolution of better research designs seem to make that assertion no longer justifiable (see Angrist and Pischke (2010) for a recent response to Leamer's essay). The economic profes- sion and policy makers alike often rely on empirical evidence as a means to investigate policy relevant questions. The approach of using scientifically rigorous and systematic evidence to identify policies and programs that are capable of improving policy-relevant outcomes is known under the increasingly popular notion of evidence-based policy. Evidence-based economic policy often relies on randomized or quasi-natural experiments in order to identify causal effects of policies. These can require relatively strong assumptions or raise concerns of external validity. In the context of this thesis, potential concerns are for example endogeneity of policy reforms with respect to the business cycle in the first chapter, the trade-off between precision and bias in the regression-discontinuity setting in chapter 2 or non-representativeness of the sample due to self-selection in chapter 3. While the identification strategies are very useful to gain insights into the causal effects of specific policy questions, transforming the evidence into concrete policy conclusions can be challenging. Policy develop- ment should therefore rely on the systematic evidence of a whole body of research on a specific policy question rather than on a single analysis. In this sense, this thesis cannot and should not be viewed as a comprehensive analysis of specific policy issues but rather as a first step towards a better understanding of certain aspects of a policy question. The thesis applies new and innovative identification strategies to policy-relevant and topical questions in the fields of labor economics and behavioral environmental economics. Each chapter relies on a different identification strategy. In the first chapter, we employ a difference- in-differences approach to exploit the quasi-experimental change in the entitlement of the max- imum unemployment benefit duration to identify the medium-run effects of reduced benefit durations on post-unemployment outcomes. Shortening benefit duration carries a double- dividend: It generates fiscal benefits without deteriorating the quality of job-matches. On the contrary, shortened benefit durations improve medium-run earnings and employment possibly through containing the negative effects of skill depreciation or stigmatization. While the first chapter provides only indirect evidence on the underlying behavioral channels, in the second chapter I develop a novel approach that allows to learn about the relative impor- tance of the two key margins of job search - reservation wage choice and search effort. In the framework of a standard non-stationary job search model, I show how the exit rate from un- employment can be decomposed in a way that is informative on reservation wage movements over the unemployment spell. The empirical analysis relies on a sharp discontinuity in unem- ployment benefit entitlement, which can be exploited in a regression-discontinuity approach to identify the effects of extended benefit durations on unemployment and survivor functions. I find evidence that calls for an important role of reservation wage choices for job search be- havior. This can have direct implications for the optimal design of unemployment insurance policies. The third chapter - while thematically detached from the other chapters - addresses one of the major policy challenges of the 21st century: climate change and resource consumption. Many governments have recently put energy efficiency on top of their agendas. While pricing instru- ments aimed at regulating the energy demand have often been found to be short-lived and difficult to enforce politically, the focus of energy conservation programs has shifted towards behavioral approaches - such as provision of information or social norm feedback. The third chapter describes a randomized controlled field experiment in which we discuss the effective- ness of different types of feedback on residential electricity consumption. We find that detailed and real-time feedback caused persistent electricity reductions on the order of 3 to 5 % of daily electricity consumption. Also social norm information can generate substantial electricity sav- ings when designed appropriately. The findings suggest that behavioral approaches constitute effective and relatively cheap way of improving residential energy-efficiency.

Attitudes of detainees and prison staff towards tobacco control policy in Switzerland: a qualitative interview study.

PURPOSE: To explore detainees and staff's attitudes towards tobacco use, in order to assist prison administrators to develop an ethically acceptable tobacco control policy based on stakeholders' opinion. DESIGN: Qualitative study based on in-depth semi-structured interviews with 31 prisoners and 27 staff prior (T1) and after the implementation (T2) of a new smoke-free regulation (2009) in a Swiss male post-trial prison consisting of 120 detainees and 120 employees. RESULTS: At T1, smoking was allowed in common indoor rooms and most working places. Both groups of participants expressed the need for a more uniform and stricter regulation, with general opposition towards a total smoking ban. Expressed fears and difficulties regarding a stricter regulation were increased stress on detainees and strain on staff, violence, riots, loss of control on detainees, and changes in social life. At T2, participants expressed predominantly satisfaction. They reported reduction in their own tobacco use and a better protection against second-hand smoke. However, enforcement was incomplete. The debate was felt as being concentrated on regulation only, leaving aside the subject of tobacco reduction or cessation support. CONCLUSION: Besides an appropriate smoke-free regulation, further developments are necessary in order to have a comprehensive tobacco control policy in prisons.

Technology transfer of an oil-in-water vaccine-adjuvant for strengthening pandemic influenza preparedness in Indonesia.

With the current enzootic circulation of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses, the ability to increase global pandemic influenza vaccine production capacity is of paramount importance. This has been highlighted by, and is one of the main pillars of, the WHO Global Action Plan for Influenza Vaccines (GAP). Such capacity expansion is especially relevant in developing countries. The Vaccine Formulation Laboratory at University of Lausanne is engaged in the technology transfer of an antigen-sparing oil-in-water adjuvant in order to empower developing countries vaccine manufacturers to increase pandemic influenza vaccine capacity. In a one-year project funded by United States Department of Health and Human Services, the Vaccine Formulation Laboratory transferred the process know-how and associated equipment for the pilot-scale manufacturing of an oil-in-water adjuvant to Bio Farma, Indonesia's state-owned vaccine manufacturer, for subsequent formulation with H5N1 pandemic influenza vaccines. This paper describes the experience acquired and lessons learnt from this technology transfer project.

Characterization of olive oil by carbon isotope analysis of individual fatty acids: Implications for authentication

The fatty acids of olive oils of distinct quality grade from the most important European Union (EU) producer countries were chemically and isotopically characterized. The analytical approach utilized combined capillary column gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC/MS) and the novel technique of compound-specific isotope analysis (CSIA) through gas chromatography coupled to a stable isotope ratio mass spectrometer (IRMS) via a combustion (C) interface (GC/C/IRMS). This approach provides further insights into the control of the purity and geographical origin of oils sold as cold-pressed extra virgin olive oil with certified origin appellation. The results indicate that substantial enrichment in heavy carbon isotope (C-13) of the bulk oil and of individual fatty acids are related to (1) a thermally induced degradation due to deodorization or steam washing of the olive oils and (2) the potential blend with refined olive oil or other vegetable oils. The interpretation of the data is based on principal component analysis of the fatty acids concentrations and isotopic data (delta(13)C(oil), delta(13)C(16:0), delta(13)C(18:1)) and on the delta(13)C(16:0) vs delta(13)C(18:1) covariations. The differences in the delta(13)C values of palmitic and oleic acids are discussed in terms of biosynthesis of these acids in the plant tissue and admixture of distinct oils.

Towards equivalent health care of prisoners: European soft law and public health policy in Geneva.

Prisoners have a right to health care and to be protected against inhumane and degrading treatment. Health care personnel and public policy makers play a central role in the protection of these rights and in the pursuit of public health goals. This article examines the legal framework for prison medicine in the canton of Geneva, Switzerland and provides examples of this framework that has shaped prisoners' medical care, including preventive measures. Geneva constitutes an intriguing example of how the Council of Europe standards concerning prison medicine have acquired a legal role in a Swiss canton. Learning how these factors have influenced implementation of prison medicine standards in Geneva may be helpful to public health managers elsewhere and encourage the use of similar strategies.

The role of mycorrhizas in more sustainable oil palm cultivation

Oil palm is a significant and developing crop in many developing countries. The introduction of oil palm puts pressure on natural resources because it is often planted in cleared-cut land that previously supported other crops or was forested. This has led to environmental concerns which require attention. Hence it is important that new plantations are managed in a sustainable way to reduce the impact of oil palm cultivation on ecosystems whilst maximising yield and productivity to farmers. The application of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) technology is one option that can benefit both agronomic plant health and ecosystems. AMF have the potential to increase conventional agricultural productivity and are crucial for the sustainable functioning of agricultural ecosystems. This paper provides an insight into how AMF application might benefit oil palm cultivation through more sustainable management and the practical use of AMF for oil palm plantations.