Are niche-based species distribution models transferable in space?

Aim To assess the geographical transferability of niche-based species distribution models fitted with two modelling techniques. Location Two distinct geographical study areas in Switzerland and Austria, in the subalpine and alpine belts. Methods Generalized linear and generalized additive models (GLM and GAM) with a binomial probability distribution and a logit link were fitted for 54 plant species, based on topoclimatic predictor variables. These models were then evaluated quantitatively and used for spatially explicit predictions within (internal evaluation and prediction) and between (external evaluation and prediction) the two regions. Comparisons of evaluations and spatial predictions between regions and models were conducted in order to test if species and methods meet the criteria of full transferability. By full transferability, we mean that: (1) the internal evaluation of models fitted in region A and B must be similar; (2) a model fitted in region A must at least retain a comparable external evaluation when projected into region B, and vice-versa; and (3) internal and external spatial predictions have to match within both regions. Results The measures of model fit are, on average, 24% higher for GAMs than for GLMs in both regions. However, the differences between internal and external evaluations (AUC coefficient) are also higher for GAMs than for GLMs (a difference of 30% for models fitted in Switzerland and 54% for models fitted in Austria). Transferability, as measured with the AUC evaluation, fails for 68% of the species in Switzerland and 55% in Austria for GLMs (respectively for 67% and 53% of the species for GAMs). For both GAMs and GLMs, the agreement between internal and external predictions is rather weak on average (Kulczynski's coefficient in the range 0.3-0.4), but varies widely among individual species. The dominant pattern is an asymmetrical transferability between the two study regions (a mean decrease of 20% for the AUC coefficient when the models are transferred from Switzerland and 13% when they are transferred from Austria). Main conclusions The large inter-specific variability observed among the 54 study species underlines the need to consider more than a few species to test properly the transferability of species distribution models. The pronounced asymmetry in transferability between the two study regions may be due to peculiarities of these regions, such as differences in the ranges of environmental predictors or the varied impact of land-use history, or to species-specific reasons like differential phenotypic plasticity, existence of ecotypes or varied dependence on biotic interactions that are not properly incorporated into niche-based models. The lower variation between internal and external evaluation of GLMs compared to GAMs further suggests that overfitting may reduce transferability. Overall, a limited geographical transferability calls for caution when projecting niche-based models for assessing the fate of species in future environments.

The lower Triassic anachronistic carbonate facies in space and time

The end-Permian mass extinction greatly affected the sedimentary record, but the sedimentary response was not limited to the Permian-Triassic boundary interval. This transformation extended to sedimentation that spanned the entire Early Triassic. Calcimicrobialites play an important role throughout this time interval, and at least four main events of anomalous carbonate deposition can be shown. A post-extinction calcimicrobial unit occurs above the extensive Permian skeletal carbonate platform exposed in the Taurus Mountains (southern Turkey), in south Armenia, north-west north and Central Iran along the Zagros Mountains. The calcimicrobial unit formed during the flooding of the platform that took place during the earliest Triassic. A similar calcimicrobialite formed during late Griesbachian to Dienerian time atop the shallow Permian skeletal carbonate platform largely exposed in south China. A third event occurred during the Early Olenekian on the first Mesozoic isolated pelagic plateau (Baid seamount, Oman Mountains). Here the change in carbonate sedimentation is reflected in the occurrence of thrombolites and carbonate seafloor fans. Near the end of Early Triassic time, unusual carbonate deposition is recorded both on an isolated pelagic plateau of the Western Tethys (Halstatt limestone of Dobrogea, Romania) and on the eastern Panthalassa margin of the western United States. In the western United States, the event is represented by stromatolites and thrombolites in the Virgin Limestone of the Moenkopi Formation and by seafloor fans in the middle and upper members of the Union Wash Formation. These unusual episodes of anomalous carbonate deposition illustrate a fundamental change in sedimentation that occurred in the aftermath of the end-Permian mass extinction.

Predicting the physicochemical profile of diastereoisomeric histidine-containing dipeptides by property space analysis.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed at measuring the lipophilicity and ionization constants of diastereoisomeric dipeptides, interpreting them in terms of conformational behavior, and developing statistical models to predict them. METHODS: A series of 20 dipeptides of general structure NH(2) -L-X-(L or D)-His-OMe was designed and synthetized. Their experimental ionization constants (pK(1) , pK(2) and pK(3) ) and lipophilicity parameters (log P(N) and log D(7.4) ) were measured by potentiometry. Molecular modeling in three media (vacuum, water, and chloroform) was used to explore and sample their conformational space, and for each stored conformer to calculate their radius of gyration, virtual log P (preferably written as log P(MLP) , meaning obtained by the molecular lipophilicity potential (MLP) method) and polar surface area (PSA). Means and ranges were calculated for these properties, as was their sensitivity (i.e., the ratio between property range and number of rotatable bonds). RESULTS: Marked differences between diastereoisomers were seen in their experimental ionization constants and lipophilicity parameters. These differences are explained by molecular flexibility, configuration-dependent differences in intramolecular interactions, and accessibility of functional groups. Multiple linear equations correlated experimental lipophilicity parameters and ionization constants with PSA range and other calculated parameters. CONCLUSION: This study documents the differences in lipophilicity and ionization constants between diastereoisomeric dipeptides. Such configuration-dependent differences are shown to depend markedly on differences in conformational behavior and to be amenable to multiple linear regression. Chirality 24:566-576, 2012. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Dynamic Modelling of Material Flows and Sustainable Resource Use: Case Studies in Regional Metabolism and Space Life Support Systems

Sustainable resource use is one of the most important environmental issues of our times. It is closely related to discussions on the 'peaking' of various natural resources serving as energy sources, agricultural nutrients, or metals indispensable in high-technology applications. Although the peaking theory remains controversial, it is commonly recognized that a more sustainable use of resources would alleviate negative environmental impacts related to resource use. In this thesis, sustainable resource use is analysed from a practical standpoint, through several different case studies. Four of these case studies relate to resource metabolism in the Canton of Geneva in Switzerland: the aim was to model the evolution of chosen resource stocks and flows in the coming decades. The studied resources were copper (a bulk metal), phosphorus (a vital agricultural nutrient), and wood (a renewable resource). In addition, the case of lithium (a critical metal) was analysed briefly in a qualitative manner and in an electric mobility perspective. In addition to the Geneva case studies, this thesis includes a case study on the sustainability of space life support systems. Space life support systems are systems whose aim is to provide the crew of a spacecraft with the necessary metabolic consumables over the course of a mission. Sustainability was again analysed from a resource use perspective. In this case study, the functioning of two different types of life support systems, ARES and BIORAT, were evaluated and compared; these systems represent, respectively, physico-chemical and biological life support systems. Space life support systems could in fact be used as a kind of 'laboratory of sustainability' given that they represent closed and relatively simple systems compared to complex and open terrestrial systems such as the Canton of Geneva. The chosen analysis method used in the Geneva case studies was dynamic material flow analysis: dynamic material flow models were constructed for the resources copper, phosphorus, and wood. Besides a baseline scenario, various alternative scenarios (notably involving increased recycling) were also examined. In the case of space life support systems, the methodology of material flow analysis was also employed, but as the data available on the dynamic behaviour of the systems was insufficient, only static simulations could be performed. The results of the case studies in the Canton of Geneva show the following: were resource use to follow population growth, resource consumption would be multiplied by nearly 1.2 by 2030 and by 1.5 by 2080. A complete transition to electric mobility would be expected to only slightly (+5%) increase the copper consumption per capita while the lithium demand in cars would increase 350 fold. For example, phosphorus imports could be decreased by recycling sewage sludge or human urine; however, the health and environmental impacts of these options have yet to be studied. Increasing the wood production in the Canton would not significantly decrease the dependence on wood imports as the Canton's production represents only 5% of total consumption. In the comparison of space life support systems ARES and BIORAT, BIORAT outperforms ARES in resource use but not in energy use. However, as the systems are dimensioned very differently, it remains questionable whether they can be compared outright. In conclusion, the use of dynamic material flow analysis can provide useful information for policy makers and strategic decision-making; however, uncertainty in reference data greatly influences the precision of the results. Space life support systems constitute an extreme case of resource-using systems; nevertheless, it is not clear how their example could be of immediate use to terrestrial systems.

Exploring the space of histidine containing dipeptides in search of novel efficient RCS sequestering agents.

The study reports a set of forty proteinogenic histidine-containing dipeptides as potential carbonyl quenchers. The peptides were chosen to cover as exhaustively as possible the accessible chemical space, and their quenching activities toward 4-hydroxy-2-nonenal (HNE) and pyridoxal were evaluated by HPLC analyses. The peptides were capped at the C-terminus as methyl esters or amides to favor their resistance to proteolysis and diastereoisomeric pairs were considered to reveal the influence of configuration on quenching. On average, the examined dipeptides are less active than the parent compound carnosine (βAla + His) thus emphasizing the unfavorable effect of the shortening of the βAla residue as confirmed by the control dipeptide Gly-His. Nevertheless, some peptides show promising activities toward HNE combined with a remarkable selectivity. The results emphasize the beneficial role of aromatic and positively charged residues, while negatively charged and H-bonding side chains show a detrimental effect on quenching. As a trend, ester derivatives are slightly more active than amides while heterochiral peptides are more active than their homochiral diastereoisomer. Overall, the results reveal that quenching activity strongly depends on conformational effects and vicinal residues (as evidenced by the reported QSAR analysis), offering insightful clues for the design of improved carbonyl quenchers and to rationalize the specific reactivity of histidine residues within proteins.

Local optima networks of hard combinatorial landscapes

Combinatorial optimization involves finding an optimal solution in a finite set of options; many everyday life problems are of this kind. However, the number of options grows exponentially with the size of the problem, such that an exhaustive search for the best solution is practically infeasible beyond a certain problem size. When efficient algorithms are not available, a practical approach to obtain an approximate solution to the problem at hand, is to start with an educated guess and gradually refine it until we have a good-enough solution. Roughly speaking, this is how local search heuristics work. These stochastic algorithms navigate the problem search space by iteratively turning the current solution into new candidate solutions, guiding the search towards better solutions. The search performance, therefore, depends on structural aspects of the search space, which in turn depend on the move operator being used to modify solutions. A common way to characterize the search space of a problem is through the study of its fitness landscape, a mathematical object comprising the space of all possible solutions, their value with respect to the optimization objective, and a relationship of neighborhood defined by the move operator. The landscape metaphor is used to explain the search dynamics as a sort of potential function. The concept is indeed similar to that of potential energy surfaces in physical chemistry. Borrowing ideas from that field, we propose to extend to combinatorial landscapes the notion of the inherent network formed by energy minima in energy landscapes. In our case, energy minima are the local optima of the combinatorial problem, and we explore several definitions for the network edges. At first, we perform an exhaustive sampling of local optima basins of attraction, and define weighted transitions between basins by accounting for all the possible ways of crossing the basins frontier via one random move. Then, we reduce the computational burden by only counting the chances of escaping a given basin via random kick moves that start at the local optimum. Finally, we approximate network edges from the search trajectory of simple search heuristics, mining the frequency and inter-arrival time with which the heuristic visits local optima. Through these methodologies, we build a weighted directed graph that provides a synthetic view of the whole landscape, and that we can characterize using the tools of complex networks science. We argue that the network characterization can advance our understanding of the structural and dynamical properties of hard combinatorial landscapes. We apply our approach to prototypical problems such as the Quadratic Assignment Problem, the NK model of rugged landscapes, and the Permutation Flow-shop Scheduling Problem. We show that some network metrics can differentiate problem classes, correlate with problem non-linearity, and predict problem hardness as measured from the performances of trajectory-based local search heuristics.

Gliotransmitters Travel in Time and Space.

The identification of the presence of active signaling between astrocytes and neurons in a process termed gliotransmission has caused a paradigm shift in our thinking about brain function. However, we are still in the early days of the conceptualization of how astrocytes influence synapses, neurons, networks, and ultimately behavior. In this Perspective, our goal is to identify emerging principles governing gliotransmission and consider the specific properties of this process that endow the astrocyte with unique functions in brain signal integration. We develop and present hypotheses aimed at reconciling confounding reports and define open questions to provide a conceptual framework for future studies. We propose that astrocytes mainly signal through high-affinity slowly desensitizing receptors to modulate neurons and perform integration in spatiotemporal domains complementary to those of neurons.