Inference about the number of contributors to a DNA mixture: Comparative analyses of a Bayesian network approach and the maximum allele count method.

In the forensic examination of DNA mixtures, the question of how to set the total number of contributors (N) presents a topic of ongoing interest. Part of the discussion gravitates around issues of bias, in particular when assessments of the number of contributors are not made prior to considering the genotypic configuration of potential donors. Further complication may stem from the observation that, in some cases, there may be numbers of contributors that are incompatible with the set of alleles seen in the profile of a mixed crime stain, given the genotype of a potential contributor. In such situations, procedures that take a single and fixed number contributors as their output can lead to inferential impasses. Assessing the number of contributors within a probabilistic framework can help avoiding such complication. Using elements of decision theory, this paper analyses two strategies for inference on the number of contributors. One procedure is deterministic and focuses on the minimum number of contributors required to 'explain' an observed set of alleles. The other procedure is probabilistic using Bayes' theorem and provides a probability distribution for a set of numbers of contributors, based on the set of observed alleles as well as their respective rates of occurrence. The discussion concentrates on mixed stains of varying quality (i.e., different numbers of loci for which genotyping information is available). A so-called qualitative interpretation is pursued since quantitative information such as peak area and height data are not taken into account. The competing procedures are compared using a standard scoring rule that penalizes the degree of divergence between a given agreed value for N, that is the number of contributors, and the actual value taken by N. Using only modest assumptions and a discussion with reference to a casework example, this paper reports on analyses using simulation techniques and graphical models (i.e., Bayesian networks) to point out that setting the number of contributors to a mixed crime stain in probabilistic terms is, for the conditions assumed in this study, preferable to a decision policy that uses categoric assumptions about N.

Topographic ERP analyses: a step-by-step tutorial review.

In this tutorial review, we detail both the rationale for as well as the implementation of a set of analyses of surface-recorded event-related potentials (ERPs) that uses the reference-free spatial (i.e. topographic) information available from high-density electrode montages to render statistical information concerning modulations in response strength, latency, and topography both between and within experimental conditions. In these and other ways these topographic analysis methods allow the experimenter to glean additional information and neurophysiologic interpretability beyond what is available from canonical waveform analyses. In this tutorial we present the example of somatosensory evoked potentials (SEPs) in response to stimulation of each hand to illustrate these points. For each step of these analyses, we provide the reader with both a conceptual and mathematical description of how the analysis is carried out, what it yields, and how to interpret its statistical outcome. We show that these topographic analysis methods are intuitive and easy-to-use approaches that can remove much of the guesswork often confronting ERP researchers and also assist in identifying the information contained within high-density ERP datasets.

State-of-the-art treatment of hypertension: established and new drugs.

The treatment of essential hypertension is based essentially on the prescription of four major classes of antihypertensive drugs, i.e. blockers of the renin-angiotensin system, calcium channel blockers, diuretics and beta-blockers. In recent years, very few new drug therapies of hypertension have become available. Therefore, it is crucial for physicians to optimize their antihypertensive therapies with the drugs available on the market. In each of the classes of antihypertensive drugs, questions have recently been raised: are angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors superior to angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARB)? Is it possible to reduce the incidence of peripheral oedema with calcium antagonists? Is hydrochlorothiazide really the good diuretic to use in combination therapies? The purpose of this review is to discuss these various questions in the light of the most recent clinical studies and meta-analyses. These latter suggest that ACE inhibitors and ARB are equivalent except for a better tolerability profile of ARB. Third generation calcium channel blockers enable to reduce the incidence of peripheral oedema and chlorthalidone is certainly more effective than hydrochlorothiazide in preventing cardiovascular events in hypertension. At last, studies suggest that drug adherence and long-term persistence under therapy is one of the major issues in the actual management of essential hypertension.

Combined simulation and mutagenesis analyses reveal the involvement of key residues for peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor alpha helix 12 dynamic behavior.

The dynamic properties of helix 12 in the ligand binding domain of nuclear receptors are a major determinant of AF-2 domain activity. We investigated the molecular and structural basis of helix 12 mobility, as well as the involvement of individual residues with regard to peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor alpha (PPARalpha) constitutive and ligand-dependent transcriptional activity. Functional assays of the activity of PPARalpha helix 12 mutants were combined with free energy molecular dynamics simulations. The agreement between the results from these approaches allows us to make robust claims concerning the mechanisms that govern helix 12 functions. Our data support a model in which PPARalpha helix 12 transiently adopts a relatively stable active conformation even in the absence of a ligand. This conformation provides the interface for the recruitment of a coactivator and results in constitutive activity. The receptor agonists stabilize this conformation and increase PPARalpha transcription activation potential. Finally, we disclose important functions of residues in PPARalpha AF-2, which determine the positioning of helix 12 in the active conformation in the absence of a ligand. Substitution of these residues suppresses PPARalpha constitutive activity, without changing PPARalpha ligand-dependent activation potential.

Designing business models of cloud platforms

Cloud computing and its three facets (Software as a Service (SaaS), Platform as a Service (PaaS), and Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS)) are terms that denote new developments in the software industry. In particular, PaaS solutions, also referred to as cloud platforms, are changing the way software is being produced, distributed, consumed, and priced. Software vendors have started considering cloud platforms as a strategic option but are battling to redefine their offerings to embrace PaaS. In contrast to SaaS and IaaS, PaaS allows for value co-creation with partners to develop complementary components and applications. It thus requires multisided business models that bring together two or more distinct customer segments. Understanding how to design PaaS business models to establish a flourishing ecosystem is crucial for software vendors. This doctoral thesis aims to address this issue in three interrelated research parts. First, based on case study research, the thesis provides a deeper understanding of current PaaS business models and their evolution. Second, it analyses and simulates consumers' preferences regarding PaaS business models, using a conjoint approach to find out what determines the choice of cloud platforms. Finally, building on the previous research outcomes, the third part introduces a design theory for the emerging class of PaaS business models, which is grounded on an extensive action design research study with a large European software vendor. Understanding PaaS business models from a market as well as a consumer perspective will, together with the design theory, inform and guide decision makers in their business model innovation plans. It also closes gaps in the research related to PaaS business model design and more generally related to platform business models.

State-Society Relationships, Social Trust and the Development of Labour Market Policies in Italy and Sweden

The first decade of the twenty-first century may be remembered for the rebirth of consensus on labour market policy. After three decades of bitter political and ideological controversy between a neo-liberal and a traditional social democratic approach, a new model, often labelled flexicurity, has emerged. This model is promoted by numerous political organisations since it promises to put an end to the old trade-off between equality and efficiency. Several countries are embracing the flexicurity model as a blueprint for labour market reform, but others, mostly belonging to the 'Mediterranean Rim', are clearly lagging behind. Why is it so difficult for these countries to implement the flexicurity model? This paper argues that the application of a flexicurity strategy in these countries is complicated by the lack of social trust between social partners and the state as well as political economy traditions that highlight the role of labour market regulation as a source of social protection.

Efficiency of Gumbel analyses for determining extreme daily precipitation in Switzerland

Gumbel analyses were carried out on rainfall time-series at 151 locations in Switzerland for 4 different periods of 30 years in order to estimate daily extreme precipitation for a return period of 100 years. Those estimations were compared with maximal daily values measured during the last 100 years (1911-2010) to test the efficiency of these analyses. This comparison shows that these analyses provide good results for 50 to 60% locations in this country from rainfall time-series 1961-1990 and 1980-2010. On the other hand, daily precipitation with a return period of 100 years is underestimated at most locations from time-series 1931-1960 and especially 1911-1940. Such underestimation results from the increase of maximal daily precipitation recorded from 1911 to 2010 at 90% locations in Switzerland.

Subjective health assessments and active labor market participation of older men: evidence from a semiparametric binary choice model with nonadditive correlated individual-specific effects

We use panel data from the U. S. Health and Retirement Study, 1992-2002, to estimate the effect of self-assessed health limitations on the active labor market participation of older men. Self-assessments of health are likely to be endogenous to labor supply due to justification bias and individual-specific heterogeneity in subjective evaluations. We address both concerns. We propose a semiparametric binary choice procedure that incorporates nonadditive correlated individual-specific effects. Our estimation strategy identifies and estimates the average partial effects of health and functioning on labor market participation. The results indicate that poor health plays a major role in labor market exit decisions.

Chemical analyses of organic residues in archaeological pottery from Arbon Bleiche 3, Switzerland - evidence for dairying in the late Neolithic

Fatty acids distribution and stable isotope ratios (bulk delta(13)C. delta(15)N and delta(13)C of individual fatty acids) of organic residues from 30 potsherds have been used to get further insights into the diet at the Late Neolithic (3384-3370 BC) site of Arbon Bleiche 3. Switzerland. The results are compared with modern equivalents of animal and vegetable fats, which may have been consumed ill a mixed ecology community having agrarian, breeding, shepherd, gathering, hunting, and fishing activities. The used combined chemical and isotopic approach provides valuable information to complement archaeological indirect evidence about the dietary trends obtained from the analysis of faunal and plant remains. The small variations of the delta(13)C and delta(15)N values within the range expected for degraded animal and plant tissues, is consistent with the archaeological evidence of animals, whose subsistence was mainly based on C(3) plants. The overall fatty acid composition and the stable carbon isotopic compositions of palmitic, stearic and oleic acids of the organic residues indicate that the studied Arbon Bleiche 3 sherds contain fat residues of plant and animal origin, most likely ruminant (bovine and ovine). In several vessels the presence of milk residues provides direct evidence for dairying during the late Neolithic in central Europe. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

X-chromosome SNP analyses in 11 human Mediterranean populations show a high overall genetic homogeneity except in North-west Africans (Moroccans).

BACKGROUND: Due to its history, with a high number of migration events, the Mediterranean basin represents a challenging area for population genetic studies. A large number of genetic studies have been carried out in the Mediterranean area using different markers but no consensus has been reached on the genetic landscape of the Mediterranean populations. In order to further investigate the genetics of the human Mediterranean populations, we typed 894 individuals from 11 Mediterranean populations with 25 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) located on the X-chromosome. RESULTS: A high overall homogeneity was found among the Mediterranean populations except for the population from Morocco, which seemed to differ genetically from the rest of the populations in the Mediterranean area. A very low genetic distance was found between populations in the Middle East and most of the western part of the Mediterranean Sea.A higher migration rate in females versus males was observed by comparing data from X-chromosome, mt-DNA and Y-chromosome SNPs both in the Mediterranean and a wider geographic area.Multilocus association was observed among the 25 SNPs on the X-chromosome in the populations from Ibiza and Cosenza. CONCLUSION: Our results support both the hypothesis of (1) a reduced impact of the Neolithic Wave and more recent migration movements in NW-Africa, and (2) the importance of the Strait of Gibraltar as a geographic barrier. In contrast, the high genetic homogeneity observed in the Mediterranean area could be interpreted as the result of the Neolithic wave caused by a large demic diffusion and/or more recent migration events. A differentiated contribution of males and females to the genetic landscape of the Mediterranean area was observed with a higher migration rate in females than in males. A certain level of background linkage disequilibrium in populations in Ibiza and Cosenza could be attributed to their demographic background.

The Life Course Determinants of Vulnerability in Late Careers

Late career is often seen as a more vulnerable life-stage in the labour market, in which workers may experience a deterioration in job quality. Using a life course perspective and longitudinal data, this article analyses the vulnerability associated with late career by focusing on four occupational dimensions: working-time, career continuity, retirement timing and income change. The research is carried out using data from Switzerland, a country where the age profile of the labour force is an increasing issue. The paper also adopts a cumulative disadvantage perspective to examine the impact of previous work and family life experiences on work life vulnerability at older age. Our data come from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARELIFE). The paper uses cluster analysis, sequence analysis and ordered logistic regression. Results show that women with previous family responsibilities resulting in long-term unemployment or caring, often with health complications, are more likely to be vulnerable to deterioration in job quality in late career. This suggests that experiences in the last period of the working life may be just as gendered as earlier periods.

Regional abundance of on-premise outlets and drinking patterns among Swiss young men: District level analyses and geographic adjustments.

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: This study investigated the associations of alcohol outlet density with specific alcohol outcomes (consumption and consequences) among young men in Switzerland and assessed the possible geographically related variations. DESIGN AND METHODS: Alcohol consumption and drinking consequences were measured in a 2010-2011 study assessing substance use risk factors (Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors) among 5519 young Swiss men. Outlet density was based on the number of on- and off-premise outlets in the district of residence. Linear regression models were run separately for drinking level, heavy episodic drinking (HED) and drinking consequences. Geographically weighted regression models were estimated when variations were recorded at the district level. RESULTS: No consistent association was found between outlet density and drinking consequences. A positive association between drinking level and HED with on-premise outlet density was found. Geographically weighted regressions were run for drinking level and HED. The predicted values for HED were higher in the southwest part of Switzerland (French-speaking part). DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Among Swiss young men, the density of outlets and, in particular, the abundance of bars, clubs and other on-premise outlets was associated with drinking level and HED, even when drinking consequences were not significantly affected. These findings support the idea that outlet density needs to be considered when developing and implementing regional-based prevention initiatives. [Astudillo M, Kuendig H, Centeno-Gil A, Wicki M, Gmel G. Regional abundance of on-premise outlets and drinking patterns among Swiss young men: District level analyses and geographic adjustments. Drug Alcohol Rev 2014;33:526-33].

Implementing statistical learning methods through Bayesian networks (Part 2): bayesian evaluations for results of black toner analyses in forensic document examination

This paper presents and discusses the use of Bayesian procedures - introduced through the use of Bayesian networks in Part I of this series of papers - for 'learning' probabilities from data. The discussion will relate to a set of real data on characteristics of black toners commonly used in printing and copying devices. Particular attention is drawn to the incorporation of the proposed procedures as an integral part in probabilistic inference schemes (notably in the form of Bayesian networks) that are intended to address uncertainties related to particular propositions of interest (e.g., whether or not a sample originates from a particular source). The conceptual tenets of the proposed methodologies are presented along with aspects of their practical implementation using currently available Bayesian network software.