A new rating scale to evaluate the potential benefit of therapeutic drug monitoring

Aims: Therapeutic Drug Monitoring (TDM) is an established tool to optimize thepharmacotherapy with immunosupressants, antibiotics, antiretroviral agents, anticonvulsantsand psychotropic drugs. The TDM expert group of the Association ofNeuropsychopharmacolgy and Pharmacopsychiatry recommended clinical guidelinesfor TDM of psychotropic drugs in 2004 and in 2011. They allocate 4 levelsof recommendation based on studies reporting plasma concentrations and clinicaloutcomes. To evaluate the additional benefit for drugs without direct evidence forTDM and to verify the recommendation levels of the expert group the authorsbuilt a new rating scale. Methods: This rating scale included 28 items and wasdivided in 5 categories: Efficacy, toxicity, pharmacokinetics, patient characteristicsand cost effectiveness. A literature search was performed for 10 antidepressants,10 antipsychotics, 8 drugs used in the treatment of substance related disordersand lithium, thereafter, a comparison with the assessment of the TDMexpert group was carried out. Results: The antidepressants as well as the antipsychoticsshowed a high and significant correlation with the recommendations inthe consensus guidelines. However, meanderings could be detected for the drugsused in the therapy of substance related disorders, for which TDM is mostly notestablished yet. The result of the antidepressants and antipsychotics permits aclassification of the reachable points; upper 13 - TDM strongly recommended10 to 13 - TDM recommended, 8 to 10 - TDM useful and below 8 - TDMpotentially useful. Conclusion: These results suggest this rating scale is sensitiveto detect the appropriateness of TDM for drug treatment. For those drugs TDM isnot established a more objective estimation is possible, thus the scoring helps tofocus on the most likely drugs to require TDM.

Melt topology and chemistry during partial melting in contact aureoles : an experimental study and field example

This study was initiated to investigate partial melting within the high-grade metamorphic rocks beneath the Little Cottonwood contact aureole (Utah, USA), in order to understand the melt generation, melt migration, and geometry of initial melt distribution on grain scale during crustal anatexis. The emplacement of the Little Cottonwood stock produced a contact aureole in the pelitic host rocks of the Big Cottonwood formation (BC). Metamorphic isogrades in pelitic rocks range form biotite to 2nd sillimanite grade as a function of distance from the contact. Migmatites are restricted to the highest grade and resulted form partial melting of the BC formation rocks. First melt was produced by a combined muscovite/biotite dehydration reaction in the sillimanite + k-feldspar stability field. Melt extraction from the pelites resulted in restites (magnetite + cordierite + alumosilicate ± biotite) surrounded by feldspar enriched quartzite zones. This texture is the result of gradual infiltration of partial melts into the quartzite. Larger, discrete melt accumulation occurred in extensional or transpressional domains such as boudin necks, veins, and ductile shear zones. Melt composition are Si02- rich, crystallized as pegmatites, and apparently were very mobile. They were able to infiltrate the quartzite pervaisivly. These melts are similar in composition to first melts produced in the hydrothermal partial melt experiments at 2kbar between 700 - 800°C on fine grained high metamorphic rocks (andalusite-cordierited-biotite-zone) of the BC formation. The experimental melts are water rich and in disequilibrium with the melting rock. Initial melt composition is heterogeneous for short run duration, reflective a lack of chemical equilibrium between individual melt pools. Rock core scale heterogeneity decreased with time indicating partial homogenization of melt compositions. A simultaneous shift of melt composition to higher silica content with time was observed. The silica content of the melt increased due to local melt/mineral reactions. Melt textures indicate that reactive melt transport is most efficient along grain boundaries rimmed by dissimilar grains. Melt heterogeneity resulted in chemical potential gradients which are major driving forces for initial melt migration and govern melt distribution during initial melting. An additional subject of the thesis is the crystal size distributions of opaque minerals in a fine-grained, high-grade meta-pelite of the Big Cottonwood which were obtained from 3D X-ray tomography (uCT) and 2D thin section analysis. µCT delivers accurate size distributions within a restricted range (~ a factor of 20 in size in a single 3D image), while the absolute number of crystals is difficult to obtain from these sparsely distributed, small crystals on the basis of 2D images. Crystal size distributions obtained from both methods are otherwise similar. - Ce travail de recherche a été entrepris dans le but d'étudier les processus de fusion partielle dans les roches fortement métamorphiques de l'auréole de contact de Little Cottonwood (Utah, USA) et ceci afin de comprendre la génération de liquide de fusion, la migration de ces liquides et la géométrie de la distribution initiale des liquides de fusion à l'échelle du grain durant l'anatexie de la croûte. L'emplacement du petit massif intrusif de Little Cottonwood a produit une auréole de contact dans les roches pélitiques encaissantes appartenant à la Foimation du Big Cottonwood (BC). Les isogrades métamorphiques dans les roches pélitiques varient de l'isograde de la biotite à la deuxième isograde de la sillimanite en fonction de la distance par rapport au massif intrusif. Les migmatites sont restreintes aux zones montrant le plus haut degré métamorphique et résultent de la fusion partielle des roches de la Formation de BC. Le premier liquide de fusion a été produit par la réaction de déshydratation combinée de la muscovite et de la biotite dans le champ de stabilité du feldspath potassique Pt de la sillimanite. L'extraction du liquide de fusion des pélites forme des restites (magnétites + cordiérite + aluminosilicate ± biotite) entourées par des zones de quartzites enrichies en feldspath. Cette texture est le résultat de l'infiltration graduelle du liquide de fusion partielle dans les quartzites. Des accumulations distinctes et plus larges de liquide de fusion ont lieu dans des domaines d'extension ou de transpression tels que les boudins, les veines, et les zones de cisaillement ductile. La composition des liquides de fusion est similaire à celle des liquides pegmatoïdes, et ces liquides sont apparemment très mobiles et capables d'infiltrer les quartzites. Ces liquides de fusion ont la même composition que les premiers liquides produits dans les expériences hydrotheunales de fusion partielle à 2kbar et entre 700-800° C sur les roches finement grenues et hautement métamorphiques (andalousite-cordiérite-biotite zone) de la Formation de BC. Les liquides de fusion obtenus expérimentalement sont riches en eau et sont en déséquilibre avec la roche en fusion. La composition initiale des liquides de fusion est hétérogène pour les expériences de courte durée et reflète l'absence d'équilibre chimique entre les différentes zones d'accumulation des liquides de fusion. L'hétérogénéité à l'échelle du noyau s'estompe avec le temps et témoigne de l'homogénéisation de la composition des liquides de fusion. Par ailleurs, on observe parallèlement un décalage de la composition des liquides vers des compositions plus riches en silice au cours du temps. Le contenu en silice des liquides de fusion évolue vers un liquide pegmatitique en raison des réactions liquides/minéraux. Les textures des liquides de fusion indiquent que le transport des liquides est plus efficace le long des bordures de grains bordés par des grains différents. Aucun changement apparent du volume total n'est visible. L'hétérogénéité des liquides s'accompagne d'un gradient de potentiel chimique qui sert de moteur principal à la migration des liquides et à la distribution des liquides durant la fusion. Un sujet complémentaire de ce travail de thèse réside dans l'étude de la distribution de la taille des cristaux opaques dans les pélites finement grenues et fortement métamorphiques de la Formation de Big Cottonwood. Les distributions de taille ont été obtenues suite à l'analyse d'images 3D acquise par tomographie ainsi que par analyse de lames minces. La microtomographie par rayon X fournit une distribution de taille précise sur une marge restreinte (- un facteur de taille 20 dans une seule image 3D), alors que le nombre absolu de cristaux est difficile à obtenir sur la base d'image 2D en raison de la petite taille et de la faible abondance de ces cristaux. Les distributions de taille obtenues par les deux méthodes sont sinon similaire. Abstact: Chemical differentiation of the primitive Earth was due to melting and separation of melts. Today, melt generation and emplacement is still the dominant process for the growth of the crust. Most granite formation is due to partial melting of the lower crust, followed by transport of magma through the crust to the shallow crust where it is emplaced. Partial melting and melt segregation are essential steps before such a granitic magma can ascent through the crust. The chemistry and physics of partial melting and segregation is complex. Hence detailed studies, in which field observations yield critical information that can be compared to experimental observations, are crucial to the understanding of these fundamental processes that lead and are leading to the chemical stratification of the Earth. The research presented in this thesis is a combined field and experimental study of partial melting of high-grade meta-pelitic rocks of the Little Cottonwood contact aureole (Utah, USA). Contact metamorphic rocks are ideal for textural studies of melt generation, since the relatively short times of the metamorphic event prevents much of the recrystallization which plagues textural studies of lower crustal rocks. The purpose of the study is to characterize melt generation, identify melting reactions, and to constrain melt formation, segregation and migration mechanisms. In parallel an experimental study was undertaken to investigate melt in the high grade meta pelitic rocks, to confirm melt composition, and to compare textures of the partial molten rock cores in the absence of deformation. Results show that a pegmatoidal melt is produced by partial melting of the pelitic rocks. This melt is highly mobile. It is capable of pervasive infiltration of the adjacent quartzite. Infiltration results in rounded quartz grains bordered by a thin feldspar rim. Using computed micro X-ray tomography these melt networks can be imaged. The infiltrated melt leads to rheological weakening and to a decompaction of the solid quartzite. Such decompaction can explain the recent discovery of abundant xenocrysts in many magmas, since it favors the isolation of mineral grains. Pervasive infiltration is apparently strongly influenced by melt viscosity and melt-crystal wetting behavior, both of which depend on the water content of melt and the temperature. In all experiments the first melt is produced on grain boundaries, dominantly by the local minerals. Grain scale heterogeneity of a melting rock leads thus to chemical concentration gradients in the melt, which are the driving force for initial melt migration. Pervasive melt films along grain boundaries leading to an interconnected network are immediately established. The initial chemical heterogeneities in the melt diminish with time. Résumé large public: La différenciation chimique de la Terre primitive est la conséquence de la fusion des roches et de la séparation des liquides qui en résultent. Aujourd'hui, la production de liquide magmatique est toujours le mécanisme dominant pour la croissance de la croûte terrestre. Ainsi la formation de la plupart des granites est un processus qui implique la production de magma par fusion partielle de la croûte inférieure, la migration de ces magmas à travers la croûte et finalement son emplacement dans les niveaux superficielle de la croûte terrestre. Au cours de cette évolution, les processus de fusion partielle et de ségrégation sont des étapes indispensables à l'ascension des granites à travers la croûte. Les conditions physico-chimiques nécessaires à la fusion partielle et à l'extraction de ces liquides sont complexes. C'est pourquoi des études détaillées des processus de fusion partielle sont cruciales pour la compréhension de ces mécanismes fondamentaux responsables de la stratification chimique de la Terre. Parmi ces études, les observations de terrain apportent notamment des informations déterminantes qui peuvent être comparées aux données expérimentales. Le travail de recherche présenté dans ce mémoire de thèse associe études de terrain et données expérimentales sur la fusion partielle des roches pélitiques de haut degré métamorphiques provenant de l'auréole de contact de Little Cottonwood (Utah, USA). Les roches du métamorphisme de contact sont idéales pour l'étude de la folination de liquide de fusion. En effet, la durée relativement courte de ce type d'événement métamorphique prévient en grande partie la recristallisation qui perturbe les études de texture des roches dans la croûte inférieure. Le but de cette étude est de caractériser la génération des liquides de fusion, d'identifier les réactions responsables de la fusion de ces roches et de contraindre la formation de ces liquides et leur mécanisme de ségrégation et de migration. Parallèlement, des travaux expérimentaux ont été entrepris pour reproduire la fusion partielle de ces roches en laboratoire. Cette étude a été effectuée dans le but de confirmer la composition chimique des liquides, et de comparer les textures obtenues en l'absence de déformation. Les résultats montrent qu'un liquide de fusion pegmatoïde est produit par fusion partielle des roches pélitiques. La grande mobilité de ce liquide permet une infiltration pénétrative dans les quarzites. Ces infiltrations se manifestent par des grains de quartz arrondis entourés par une fine bordure de feldspath. L'utilisation de la tomography à rayons X a permis d'obtenir des images de ce réseau de liquide de fusion. L'infiltration de liquide de fusion entraîne un affaiblissement de la rhéologie de la roche ainsi qu'une décompaction des quartzites massifs. Une telle décompaction peut expliquer la découverte récente d'abondants xénocristaux dans beaucoup de magmas, puisque elle favorise l'isolation des minéraux. L'infiltration pénétrative est apparemment fortement influencée par la viscosité du fluide de fusion et le comportement de la tension superficielle entre les cristaux et le liquide, les deux étant dépendant du contenu en eau dans le liquide de fusion et de la température. Dans toutes les expériences, le premier liquide est produit sur les bordures de grains, principalement par les minéraux locaux. L'hétérogénéité à l'échelle des grains d'une roche en fusion conduit donc à un gradient de concentration chimique dans le liquide, qui sert de moteur à l'initiation de la migration du liquide. Des fines couches de liquide de fusion le long de bordures de grains formant un réseau enchevêtré s'établit immédiatement. Les hétérogénéités chimiques initiales dans le liquide s'estompent avec le temps.

Turnover and accumulation of genetic diversity across large time-scale cycles of isolation and connection of populations.

Major climatic and geological events but also population history (secondary contacts) have generated cycles of population isolation and connection of long and short periods. Recent empirical and theoretical studies suggest that fast evolutionary processes might be triggered by such events, as commonly illustrated in ecology by the adaptive radiation of cichlid fishes (isolation and reconnection of lakes and watersheds) and in epidemiology by the fast adaptation of the influenza virus (isolation and reconnection in hosts). We test whether cyclic population isolation and connection provide the raw material (standing genetic variation) for species evolution and diversification. Our analytical results demonstrate that population isolation and connection can provide, to populations, a high excess of genetic diversity compared with what is expected at equilibrium. This excess is either cyclic (high allele turnover) or cumulates with time depending on the duration of the isolation and the connection periods and the mutation rate. We show that diversification rates of animal clades are associated with specific periods of climatic cycles in the Quaternary. We finally discuss the importance of our results for macroevolutionary patterns and for the inference of population history from genomic data.

What spatial data do we need to develop global mammal conservation strategies?

Spatial data on species distributions are available in two main forms, point locations and distribution maps (polygon ranges and grids). The first are often temporally and spatially biased, and too discontinuous, to be useful (untransformed) in spatial analyses. A variety of modelling approaches are used to transform point locations into maps. We discuss the attributes that point location data and distribution maps must satisfy in order to be useful in conservation planning. We recommend that before point location data are used to produce and/or evaluate distribution models, the dataset should be assessed under a set of criteria, including sample size, age of data, environmental/geographical coverage, independence, accuracy, time relevance and (often forgotten) representation of areas of permanent and natural presence of the species. Distribution maps must satisfy additional attributes if used for conservation analyses and strategies, including minimizing commission and omission errors, credibility of the source/assessors and availability for public screening. We review currently available databases for mammals globally and show that they are highly variable in complying with these attributes. The heterogeneity and weakness of spatial data seriously constrain their utility to global and also sub-global scale conservation analyses.

Suitability, success and sinks: how do predictions of nesting distributions relate to fitness parameters in high arctic waders?

AimAlthough habitat suitability maps derived from species distribution models (SDMs) are often assumed to highlight locations that can sustain healthy populations over time, the relationship between suitability scores and fitness parameters has rarely been tested thoroughly. LocationZackenberg Valley, north-east Greenland. MethodsUsing 14years of data (1997-2010) representing three wader species (dunlin Calidris alpina, sanderling Calidris alba and ruddy turnstone Arenaria interpres), we tested the relationships between modelled suitability and fitness parameters at nesting locations. ResultsAmong the three species examined, only the ruddy turnstone exhibited significant relationships between suitability and nest success, but over time rather than space. During years with extensive snow cover in the landscape, the nesting sites of ruddy turnstone occurred in different habitats than were typically used across years. Moreover, in years with extensive snow cover, the ruddy turnstone initiated nests later and suffered from higher egg predation rates. Main conclusionOur results suggest that SDMs derived from species occurrences that include years of low reproductive success may over-estimate the potential suitable habitat in the landscape. Whenever possible, variation in reproductive success should be considered when building models to inform species' response to environmental change. species' response to environmental change.

Large-scale analysis of orthologs and paralogs under covarion-like and constant-but-different models of amino acid evolution.

Functional divergence between homologous proteins is expected to affect amino acid sequences in two main ways, which can be considered as proxies of biochemical divergence: a "covarion-like" pattern of correlated changes in evolutionary rates, and switches in conserved residues ("conserved but different"). Although these patterns have been used in case studies, a large-scale analysis is needed to estimate their frequency and distribution. We use a phylogenomic framework of animal genes to answer three questions: 1) What is the prevalence of such patterns? 2) Can we link such patterns at the amino acid level with selection inferred at the codon level? 3) Are patterns different between paralogs and orthologs? We find that covarion-like patterns are more frequently detected than "constant but different," but that only the latter are correlated with signal for positive selection. Finally, there is no obvious difference in patterns between orthologs and paralogs.

Regional-scale debris-flow risk assessment for an alpine valley

In this paper, we perform a societal and economic risk assessment for debris flows at the regional scale, for lower Valtellina, Northern Italy. We apply a simple empirical debris-flow model, FLOW-R, which couples a probabilistic flow routing algorithm with an energy line approach, providing the relative probability of transit, and the maximum kinetic energy, for each cell. By assessing a vulnerability to people and to other exposed elements (buildings, public facilities, crops, woods, communication lines), and their economic value, we calculated the expected annual losses both in terms of lives (societal risk) and goods (direct economic risk). For societal risk assessment, we distinguish for the day and night scenarios. The distribution of people at different moments of the day was considered, accounting for the occupational and recreational activities, to provide a more realistic assessment of risk. Market studies were performed in order to assess a realistic economic value to goods, structures, and lifelines. As terrain unit, a 20 m x 20 m cell was used, in accordance with data availability and the spatial resolution requested for a risk assessment at this scale. Societal risk the whole area amounts to 1.98 and 4.22 deaths/year for the day and the night scenarios, respectively, with a maximum of 0.013 deaths/year/cell. Economic risk for goods amounts to 1,760,291 ?/year, with a maximum of 13,814 ?/year/cell.

CATMA, a comprehensive genome-scale resource for silencing and transcript profiling of Arabidopsis genes.

BACKGROUND: The Complete Arabidopsis Transcript MicroArray (CATMA) initiative combines the efforts of laboratories in eight European countries 1 to deliver gene-specific sequence tags (GSTs) for the Arabidopsis research community. The CATMA initiative offers the power and flexibility to regularly update the GST collection according to evolving knowledge about the gene repertoire. These GST amplicons can easily be reamplified and shared, subsets can be picked at will to print dedicated arrays, and the GSTs can be cloned and used for other functional studies. This ongoing initiative has already produced approximately 24,000 GSTs that have been made publicly available for spotted microarray printing and RNA interference. RESULTS: GSTs from the CATMA version 2 repertoire (CATMAv2, created in 2002) were mapped onto the gene models from two independent Arabidopsis nuclear genome annotation efforts, TIGR5 and PSB-EuGène, to consolidate a list of genes that were targeted by previously designed CATMA tags. A total of 9,027 gene models were not tagged by any amplified CATMAv2 GST, and 2,533 amplified GSTs were no longer predicted to tag an updated gene model. To validate the efficacy of GST mapping criteria and design rules, the predicted and experimentally observed hybridization characteristics associated to GST features were correlated in transcript profiling datasets obtained with the CATMAv2 microarray, confirming the reliability of this platform. To complete the CATMA repertoire, all 9,027 gene models for which no GST had yet been designed were processed with an adjusted version of the Specific Primer and Amplicon Design Software (SPADS). A total of 5,756 novel GSTs were designed and amplified by PCR from genomic DNA. Together with the pre-existing GST collection, this new addition constitutes the CATMAv3 repertoire. It comprises 30,343 unique amplified sequences that tag 24,202 and 23,009 protein-encoding nuclear gene models in the TAIR6 and EuGène genome annotations, respectively. To cover the remaining untagged genes, we identified 543 additional GSTs using less stringent design criteria and designed 990 sequence tags matching multiple members of gene families (Gene Family Tags or GFTs) to cover any remaining untagged genes. These latter 1,533 features constitute the CATMAv4 addition. CONCLUSION: To update the CATMA GST repertoire, we designed 7,289 additional sequence tags, bringing the total number of tagged TAIR6-annotated Arabidopsis nuclear protein-coding genes to 26,173. This resource is used both for the production of spotted microarrays and the large-scale cloning of hairpin RNA silencing vectors. All information about the resulting updated CATMA repertoire is available through the CATMA database http://www.catma.org.

Overcoming the rare species modelling paradox: test of a novel hierarchical framework with an Iberian endemic plant

Rare species have restricted geographic ranges, habitat specialization, and/or small population sizes. Datasets on rare species distribution usually have few observations, limited spatial accuracy and lack of valid absences; conversely they provide comprehensive views of species distributions allowing to realistically capture most of their realized environmental niche. Rare species are the most in need of predictive distribution modelling but also the most difficult to model. We refer to this contrast as the "rare species modelling paradox" and propose as a solution developing modelling approaches that deal with a sufficiently large set of predictors, ensuring that statistical models aren't overfitted. Our novel approach fulfils this condition by fitting a large number of bivariate models and averaging them with a weighted ensemble approach. We further propose that this ensemble forecasting is conducted within a hierarchic multi-scale framework. We present two ensemble models for a test species, one at regional and one at local scale, each based on the combination of 630 models. In both cases, we obtained excellent spatial projections, unusual when modelling rare species. Model results highlight, from a statistically sound approach, the effects of multiple drivers in a same modelling framework and at two distinct scales. From this added information, regional models can support accurate forecasts of range dynamics under climate change scenarios, whereas local models allow the assessment of isolated or synergistic impacts of changes in multiple predictors. This novel framework provides a baseline for adaptive conservation, management and monitoring of rare species at distinct spatial and temporal scales.

Predictive value of Glasgow Coma Scale after brain trauma: change in trend over the past ten years.

BACKGROUND: Age and the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score on admission are considered important predictors of outcome after traumatic brain injury. We investigated the predictive value of the GCS in a large group of patients whose computerised multimodal bedside monitoring data had been collected over the previous 10 years. METHODS: Data from 358 subjects with head injury, collected between 1992 and 2001, were analysed retrospectively. Patients were grouped according to year of admission. Glasgow Outcome Scores (GOS) were determined at six months. Spearman's correlation coefficients between GCS and GOS scores were calculated for each year. RESULTS: On average 34 (SD: 7) patients were monitored every year. We found a significant correlation between the GCS and GOS for the first five years (overall 1992-1996: r = 0.41; p<0.00001; n = 183) and consistent lack of correlations from 1997 onwards (overall 1997-2001: r = 0.091; p = 0.226; n = 175). In contrast, correlations between age and GOS were in both time periods significant and similar (r = -0.24 v r = -0.24; p<0.002). CONCLUSIONS: The admission GCS lost its predictive value for outcome in this group of patients from 1997 onwards. The predictive value of the GCS should be carefully reconsidered when building prognostic models incorporating multimodality monitoring after head injury.

Species distributions and interactions in a changing world : from understanding to forecasting

Les écosystèmes fournissent de nombreuses ressources et services écologiques qui sont utiles à la population humaine. La biodiversité est une composante essentielle des écosystèmes et maintient de nombreux services. Afin d'assurer la permanence des services écosystémiques, des mesures doivent être prises pour conserver la biodiversité. Dans ce but, l'acquisition d'informations détaillées sur la distribution de la biodiversité dans l'espace est essentielle. Les modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) sont des modèles empiriques qui mettent en lien des observations de terrain (présences ou absences d'une espèce) avec des descripteurs de l'environnement, selon des courbes de réponses statistiques qui décrive la niche réalisée des espèces. Ces modèles fournissent des projections spatiales indiquant les lieux les plus favorables pour les espèces considérées. Le principal objectif de cette thèse est de fournir des projections plus réalistes de la distribution des espèces et des communautés en montagne pour le climat présent et futur en considérant non-seulement des variables abiotiques mais aussi biotiques. Les régions de montagne et l'écosystème alpin sont très sensibles aux changements globaux et en même temps assurent de nombreux services écosystémiques. Cette thèse est séparée en trois parties : (i) fournir une meilleure compréhension du rôle des interactions biotiques dans la distribution des espèces et l'assemblage des communautés en montagne (ouest des Alpes Suisses), (ii) permettre le développement d'une nouvelle approche pour modéliser la distribution spatiale de la biodiversité, (iii) fournir des projections plus réalistes de la distribution future des espèces ainsi que de la composition des communautés. En me focalisant sur les papillons, bourdons et plantes vasculaires, j'ai détecté des interactions biotiques importantes qui lient les espèces entre elles. J'ai également identifié la signature du filtre de l'environnement sur les communautés en haute altitude confirmant l'utilité des SDMs pour reproduire ce type de processus. A partir de ces études, j'ai contribué à l'amélioration méthodologique des SDMs dans le but de prédire les communautés en incluant les interactions biotiques et également les processus non-déterministes par une approche probabiliste. Cette approche permet de prédire non-seulement la distribution d'espèces individuelles, mais également celle de communautés dans leur entier en empilant les projections (S-SDMs). Finalement, j'ai utilisé cet outil pour prédire la distribution d'espèces et de communautés dans le passé et le futur. En particulier, j'ai modélisé la migration post-glaciaire de Trollius europaeus qui est à l'origine de la structure génétique intra-spécifique chez cette espèce et évalué les risques de perte face au changement climatique. Finalement, j'ai simulé la distribution des communautés de bourdons pour le 21e siècle afin d'évaluer les changements probables dans ce groupe important de pollinisateurs. La diversité fonctionnelle des bourdons va être altérée par la perte d'espèces spécialistes de haute altitude et ceci va influencer la pollinisation des plantes en haute altitude. - Ecosystems provide a multitude of resources and ecological services, which are useful to human. Biodiversity is an essential component of those ecosystems and guarantee many services. To assure the permanence of ecosystem services for future generation, measure should be applied to conserve biodiversity. For this purpose, the acquisition of detailed information on how biodiversity implicated in ecosystem function is distributed in space is essential. Species distribution models (SDMs) are empirical models relating field observations to environmental predictors based on statistically-derived response surfaces that fit the realized niche. These models result in spatial predictions indicating locations of the most suitable environment for the species and may potentially be applied to predict composition of communities and their functional properties. The main objective of this thesis was to provide more accurate projections of species and communities distribution under current and future climate in mountains by considering not solely abiotic but also biotic drivers of species distribution. Mountain areas and alpine ecosystems are considered as particularly sensitive to global changes and are also sources of essential ecosystem services. This thesis had three main goals: (i) a better ecological understanding of biotic interactions and how they shape the distribution of species and communities, (ii) the development of a novel approach to the spatial modeling of biodiversity, that can account for biotic interactions, and (iii) ecologically more realistic projections of future species distributions, of future composition and structure of communities. Focusing on butterfly and bumblebees in interaction with the vegetation, I detected important biotic interactions for species distribution and community composition of both plant and insects along environmental gradients. I identified the signature of environmental filtering processes at high elevation confirming the suitability of SDMs for reproducing patterns of filtering. Using those case-studies, I improved SDMs by incorporating biotic interaction and accounting for non-deterministic processes and uncertainty using a probabilistic based approach. I used improved modeling to forecast the distribution of species through the past and future climate changes. SDMs hindcasting allowed a better understanding of the spatial range dynamic of Trollius europaeus in Europe at the origin of the species intra-specific genetic diversity and identified the risk of loss of this genetic diversity caused by climate change. By simulating the future distribution of all bumblebee species in the western Swiss Alps under nine climate change scenarios for the 21st century, I found that the functional diversity of this pollinator guild will be largely affected by climate change through the loss of high elevation specialists. In turn, this will have important consequences on alpine plant pollination.

Influence of structural heterogeneities and of large scale topography on imbricate gravitational rock slope failures: New insights from 3-D physical modeling and geomorphological analysis

Initial topography and inherited structural discontinuities are known to play a dominant role in rock slope stability. Previous 2-D physical modeling results demonstrated that even if few preexisting fractures are activated/propagated during gravitational failure all of those heterogeneities had a great influence on mobilized volume and its kinematics. The question we address in the present study is to determine if such a result is also observed in 3-D. As in 2-D previous models we examine geologically stable model configuration, based upon the well documented landslide at Randa, Switzerland. The 3-D models consisted of a homogeneous material in which several fracture zones were introduced in order to study simplified but realistic configurations of discontinuities (e.g. based on natural example rather than a parametric study). Results showed that the type of gravitational failure (deep-seated landslide or sequential failure) and resulting slope morphology evolution are the result of the interplay of initial topography and inherited preexisting fractures (orientation and density). The three main results are i) the initial topography exerts a strong control on gravitational slope failure. Indeed in each tested configuration (even in the isotropic one without fractures) the model is affected by a rock slide, ii) the number of simulated fracture sets greatly influences the volume mobilized and its kinematics, and iii) the failure zone involved in the 1991 event is smaller than the results produced by the analog modeling. This failure may indicate that the zone mobilized in 1991 is potentially only a part of a larger deep-seated landslide and/or wider deep seated gravitational slope deformation.

Adaptation en français et en allemand d'une échelle de pression des pairs pour jeunes adultes : le Peer Pressure Inventory [Adaptation of a peer pressure scale in French and German: the Peer Pressure Inventory].

BACKGROUND: Peer pressure is regarded as an important determinant of substance use, sexual behavior and juvenile delinquency. However, few peer pressure scales are validated, especially in French or German. Little is known about the factor structure of such scales or the kind of scale needed: some scales takes into account both peer pressure to do and peer pressure not to do, while others consider only peer pressure to do. The aim of the present study was to adapt French and German versions of the Peer Pressure Inventory, which is one of the most widely used scales in this field. We considered its factor structure and concurrent validity. METHODS: Five thousand eight hundred and sixty-seven young Swiss men filled in a questionnaire on peer pressure, substance use, and other variables (conformity, involvement) in a cohort study. RESULTS: We identified a four-factor structure, with the three factors of the initial Peer Pressure Inventory (involvement, conformity, misconduct) and adding a new one (relationship with girls). A non-valued scale (from no peer pressure to peer pressure to do only) showed stronger psychometric qualities than a valued scale (from peer pressure not to do to peer pressure to do). Concurrent validity was also good. Each behavior or attitude was significantly associated with peer pressure. CONCLUSION: Peer pressure seems to be a multidimensional concept. In this study, peer pressure to do showed the strongest influence on participants. Indeed, peer pressure not to do did not add anything useful. Only peer pressure to do affected young Swiss men's behaviors and attitudes and was reliable.