Sensitivity of predictive species distribution models to change in grain size

Predictive species distribution modelling (SDM) has become an essential tool in biodiversity conservation and management. The choice of grain size (resolution) of environmental layers used in modelling is one important factor that may affect predictions. We applied 10 distinct modelling techniques to presence-only data for 50 species in five different regions, to test whether: (1) a 10-fold coarsening of resolution affects predictive performance of SDMs, and (2) any observed effects are dependent on the type of region, modelling technique, or species considered. Results show that a 10 times change in grain size does not severely affect predictions from species distribution models. The overall trend is towards degradation of model performance, but improvement can also be observed. Changing grain size does not equally affect models across regions, techniques, and species types. The strongest effect is on regions and species types, with tree species in the data sets (regions) with highest locational accuracy being most affected. Changing grain size had little influence on the ranking of techniques: boosted regression trees remain best at both resolutions. The number of occurrences used for model training had an important effect, with larger sample sizes resulting in better models, which tended to be more sensitive to grain. Effect of grain change was only noticeable for models reaching sufficient performance and/or with initial data that have an intrinsic error smaller than the coarser grain size.

Genetic and environmental components of phenotypic variation in immune response and body size of a colonial bird, Delichon urbica (the house martin).

Directional selection for parasite resistance is often intense in highly social host species. Using a partial cross-fostering experiment we studied environmental and genetic variation in immune response and morphology in a highly colonial bird species, the house martin (Delichon urbica). We manipulated intensity of infestation of house martin nests by the haematophagous parasitic house martin bug Oeciacus hirundinis either by spraying nests with a weak pesticide or by inoculating them with 50 bugs. Parasitism significantly affected tarsus length, T cell response, immunoglobulin and leucocyte concentrations. We found evidence of strong environmental effects on nestling body mass, body condition, wing length and tarsus length, and evidence of significant additive genetic variance for wing length and haematocrit. We found significant environmental variance, but no significant additive genetic variance in immune response parameters such as T cell response to the antigenic phytohemagglutinin, immunoglobulins, and relative and absolute numbers of leucocytes. Environmental variances were generally greater than additive genetic variances, and the low heritabilities of phenotypic traits were mainly a consequence of large environmental variances and small additive genetic variances. Hence, highly social bird species such as the house martin, which are subject to intense selection by parasites, have a limited scope for immediate microevolutionary response to selection because of low heritabilities, but also a limited scope for long-term response to selection because evolvability as indicated by small additive genetic coefficients of variation is weak.

A noninvasive diagnostic tool to differentiate myocarditis from myocardial infarction: late gadolinium enhanced cardiac magnetic resonance.

Studies in adults have shown that late gadolinium enhanced cardiac magnetic resonance is a safe and noninvasive diagnostic tool which allows one to differentiate myocardial infarction from myocarditis. We believe that it may also be highly useful in the paediatric population for the same purpose.

Managing the size of the Olympic Games

The last two decades have seen dramatic increases in the size and scope of the Summer Olympic Games. In many ways, London 2012 reached even higher summits than the Beijing Games in 2008. This growth is a major challenge for the Olympics and its future organizers, as it is making the Games increasingly difficult to stage and has greatly reduced the number of cities capable of hosting them. This study shows how various participation and organization indicators have expanded over six Olympiads, from Barcelona 1992 to London 2012, and examines the reasons for this growth. It suggests ways of reducing the size of the Summer Olympic Games in order to make them more manageable and to encourage candidatures from smaller cities and countries.

Substitution rates at neutral genes depend on population size under fluctuating demography and overlapping generations.

It is widely accepted that the rate of evolution (substitution rate) at neutral genes is unaffected by population size fluctuations. This result has implications for the analysis of genetic data in population genetics and phylogenetics, and provides, in particular, a justification for the concept of the molecular clock. Here, we show that the substitution rate at neutral genes does depend on population size fluctuations in the presence of overlapping generations. As both population size fluctuations and overlapping generations are expected to be the norm rather than the exception in natural populations, this observation may be relevant for understanding variation in substitution rates within and between lineages.

Comparison of results of intravenous infusion of anistreplase versus streptokinase in acute myocardial infarction.

This randomized study compares the coronary perfusion rate in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) treated with 2 different intravenous thrombolytic agents: streptokinase 1.5 million U given over 60 minutes and anisoylated human plasminogen streptokinase activator complex (anistreplase) administrated as a bolus of 30 U over 5 minutes. One hundred seventy-five patients (149 men and 26 women, mean age 54 years) have been included in this study. Eighty-nine patients were treated with anistreplase and 86 patients with streptokinase. AMI was inferior in 54 patients (61%) in the anistreplase group and in 54 patients (63%) in the streptokinase group. It was anterior in 35 (40%) and 32 (37%) patients, respectively. Coronary angiography and ventriculography were performed at a mean time (+/- SEM) of 207 +/- 11 minutes after the beginning of thrombolysis in 170 patients. A perfusion score grade of 2 or 3 according to the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction trial was found in 63 patients (72%) in the anistreplase group and in 56 patients (68%) in the streptokinase group (p = NS). Severe bleeding occurred in 7 patients (8%) after anistreplase and in 6 patients (7%) after streptokinase. No cerebral hemorrhage occurred. Nine patients (5%) died during their hospital stay: 6 after anistreplase and 3 after streptokinase. It is concluded that intravenous administration of anistreplase or streptokinase is efficient and safe. Coronary patency 207 minutes after fibrinolysis, incidence of adverse events and mortality are similar in both groups.

Effects of brood size manipulation and common origin on phenotype and telomere length in nestling collared flycatchers.

BACKGROUND: Evidence is accumulating that telomere length is a good predictor of life expectancy, especially early in life, thus calling for determining the factors that affect telomere length at this stage. Here, we investigated the relative influence of early growth conditions and origin (genetics and early maternal effects) on telomere length of collared flycatchers (Ficedula albicollis) at fledging. We experimentally transferred hatchlings among brood triplets to create reduced, control (i.e. unchanged final nestling number) and enlarged broods. RESULTS: Although our treatment significantly affected body mass at fledging, we found no evidence that increased sibling competition affected nestling tarsus length and telomere length. However, mixed models showed that brood triplets explained a significant part of the variance in body mass (18%) and telomere length (19%), but not tarsus length (13%), emphasizing that unmanipulated early environmental factors influenced telomere length. These models also revealed low, but significant, heritability of telomere length (h(2) = 0.09). For comparison, the heritability of nestling body mass and tarsus length was 0.36 and 0.39, respectively, which was in the range of previously published estimates for those two traits in this species. CONCLUSION: Those findings in a wild bird population demonstrate that telomere length at the end of the growth period is weakly, but significantly, determined by genetic and/or maternal factors taking place before hatching. However, we found no evidence that the brood size manipulation experiment, and by extension the early growth conditions, influenced nestling telomere length. The weak heritability of telomere length suggests a close association with fitness in natural populations.

Coevolution of adaptive technology, maladaptive culture and population size in a producer-scrounger game.

Technology (i.e. tools, methods of cultivation and domestication, systems of construction and appropriation, machines) has increased the vital rates of humans, and is one of the defining features of the transition from Malthusian ecological stagnation to a potentially perpetual rising population growth. Maladaptations, on the other hand, encompass behaviours, customs and practices that decrease the vital rates of individuals. Technology and maladaptations are part of the total stock of culture carried by the individuals in a population. Here, we develop a quantitative model for the coevolution of cumulative adaptive technology and maladaptive culture in a 'producer-scrounger' game, which can also usefully be interpreted as an 'individual-social' learner interaction. Producers (individual learners) are assumed to invent new adaptations and maladaptations by trial-and-error learning, insight or deduction, and they pay the cost of innovation. Scroungers (social learners) are assumed to copy or imitate (cultural transmission) both the adaptations and maladaptations generated by producers. We show that the coevolutionary dynamics of producers and scroungers in the presence of cultural transmission can have a variety of effects on population carrying capacity. From stable polymorphism, where scroungers bring an advantage to the population (increase in carrying capacity), to periodic cycling, where scroungers decrease carrying capacity, we find that selection-driven cultural innovation and transmission may send a population on the path of indefinite growth or to extinction.

Cardiac rotation and relaxation after anterolateral myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: Both systolic and diastolic dysfunction have been observed in patients with anterolateral myocardial infarction. Diastolic dysfunction is related to disturbances in relaxation and diastolic filling. OBJECTIVE: To analyse cardiac rotation, regional shortening and diastolic relaxation in patients with anterolateral infarction. METHODS: Cardiac rotation and relaxation in controls and patients with chronic anterolateral infarction were assessed by myocardial tagging. Myocardial tagging is based on magnetic resonance imaging and allows us to label specific myocardial regions for imaging cardiac motion (rotation, translation and radial displacement). A rectangular grid was placed on the myocardium (basal, equatorial and apical short-axis plane) of each of 18 patients with chronic anterolateral infarction and 13 controls. Cardiac rotation, change in area and shortening of circumference were determined in each case. RESULTS: The left ventricle in controls performs a systolic wringing motion with a clockwise rotation at the base and a counterclockwise rotation at the apex when viewed from the apex. During relaxation a rotational motion in the opposite direction (namely untwisting) can be observed. In patients with anterolateral infarction, there is less systolic rotation at the apex and diastolic untwisting is delayed and prolonged in comparison with controls. In the presence of a left ventricular aneurysm (n = 4) apical rotation is completely lost. There is less shortening of circumference in infarcted and remote regions. CONCLUSIONS: The wringing motion of the myocardium might be an important mechanism involved in maintaining normal cardiac function with minimal expenditure of energy. This mechanism no longer operates in patients with left ventricular aneurysms and operates significantly less than normal in those with anterolateral hypokinaesia. Diastolic untwisting is significantly delayed and prolonged in patients with anterolateral infarction, which could explain the occurrence of diastolic dysfunction in these patients.

Genome size rather than content might affect call properties in toads of three ploidy levels (Anura: Bufonidae: Bufo viridis subgroup).

In vertebrates, genome size has been shown to correlate with nuclear and cell sizes, and influences phenotypic features, such as brain complexity. In three different anuran families, advertisement calls of polyploids exhibit longer notes and intervals than diploids, and difference in cellular dimensions have been hypothesized to cause these modifications. We investigated this phenomenon in green toads (Bufo viridis subgroup) of three ploidy levels, in a different call type (release calls) that may evolve independently from advertisement calls, examining 1205 calls, from ten species, subspecies, and hybrid forms. Significant differences between pulse rates of six diploid and four polyploid (3n, 4n) green toad forms across a range of temperatures from 7 to 27 °C were found. Laboratory data supported differences in pulse rates of triploids vs. tetraploids, but failed to reach significance when including field recordings. This study supports the idea that genome size, irrespective of call type, phylogenetic context, and geographical background, might affect call properties in anurans and suggests a common principle governing this relationship. The nuclear-cell size ratio, affected by genome size, seems the most plausible explanation. However, we cannot rule out hypotheses under which call-influencing genes from an unexamined diploid ancestral species might also affect call properties in the hybrid-origin polyploids.

Measuring an effect size from dichotomized data : contrasted results whether using a correlation or an odds-ratio

It is well known that dichotomizing continuous data has the effect to decrease statistical power when the goal is to test for a statistical association between two variables. Modern researchers however are focusing not only on statistical significance but also on an estimation of the "effect size" (i.e., the strength of association between the variables) to judge whether a significant association is also clinically relevant. In this article, we are interested in the consequences of dichotomizing continuous data on the value of an effect size in some classical settings. It turns out that the conclusions will not be the same whether using a correlation or an odds ratio to summarize the strength of association between the variables: Whereas the value of a correlation is typically decreased by a factor pi/2 after each dichotomization, the value of an odds ratio is at the same time raised to the power 2. From a descriptive statistical point of view, it is thus not clear whether dichotomizing continuous data leads to a decrease or to an increase in the effect size, as illustrated using a data set to investigate the relationship between motor and intellectual functions in children and adolescents

Cutting edge: IL-1α is a crucial danger signal triggering acute myocardial inflammation during myocardial infarction.

Myocardial infarction (MI) induces a sterile inflammatory response that contributes to adverse cardiac remodeling. The initiating mechanisms of this response remain incompletely defined. We found that necrotic cardiomyocytes released a heat-labile proinflammatory signal activating MAPKs and NF-κB in cardiac fibroblasts, with secondary production of cytokines. This response was abolished in Myd88(-/-) fibroblasts but was unaffected in nlrp3-deficient fibroblasts. Despite MyD88 dependency, the response was TLR independent, as explored in TLR reporter cells, pointing to a contribution of the IL-1 pathway. Indeed, necrotic cardiomyocytes released IL-1α, but not IL-1β, and the immune activation of cardiac fibroblasts was abrogated by an IL-1R antagonist and an IL-1α-blocking Ab. Moreover, immune responses triggered by necrotic Il1a(-/-) cardiomyocytes were markedly reduced. In vivo, mice exposed to MI released IL-1α in the plasma, and postischemic inflammation was attenuated in Il1a(-/-) mice. Thus, our findings identify IL-1α as a crucial early danger signal triggering post-MI inflammation.