Where will conflicts between alien and rare species occur after climate and land-use change? A test with a novel combined modelling approach

Protecting native biodiversity against alien invasive species requires powerful methods to anticipate these invasions and to protect native species assumed to be at risk. Here, we describe how species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to identify areas predicted as suitable for rare native species and also predicted as highly susceptible to invasion by alien species, at present and under future climate and land-use scenarios. To assess the condition and dynamics of such conflicts, we developed a combined predictive modelling (CPM) approach, which predicts species distributions by combining two SDMs fitted using subsets of predictors classified as acting at either regional or local scales. We illustrate the CPM approach for an alien invader and a rare species associated to similar habitats in northwest Portugal. Combined models predict a wider variety of potential species responses, providing more informative projections of species distributions and future dynamics than traditional, non-combined models. They also provide more informative insight regarding current and future rare-invasive conflict areas. For our studied species, conflict areas of highest conservation relevance are predicted to decrease over the next decade, supporting previous reports that some invasive species may contract their geographic range and impact due to climate change. More generally, our results highlight the more informative character of the combined approach to address practical issues in conservation and management programs, especially those aimed at mitigating the impact of invasive plants, land-use and climate changes in sensitive regions

Quantifying network properties in multi-electrode recordings: spatiotemporal characterization and inter-trial variation of evoked gamma oscillations in mouse somatosensory cortex in vitro.

Linking the structural connectivity of brain circuits to their cooperative dynamics and emergent functions is a central aim of neuroscience research. Graph theory has recently been applied to study the structure-function relationship of networks, where dynamical similarity of different nodes has been turned into a "static" functional connection. However, the capability of the brain to adapt, learn and process external stimuli requires a constant dynamical functional rewiring between circuitries and cell assemblies. Hence, we must capture the changes of network functional connectivity over time. Multi-electrode array data present a unique challenge within this framework. We study the dynamics of gamma oscillations in acute slices of the somatosensory cortex from juvenile mice recorded by planar multi-electrode arrays. Bursts of gamma oscillatory activity lasting a few hundred milliseconds could be initiated only by brief trains of electrical stimulations applied at the deepest cortical layers and simultaneously delivered at multiple locations. Local field potentials were used to study the spatio-temporal properties and the instantaneous synchronization profile of the gamma oscillatory activity, combined with current source density (CSD) analysis. Pair-wise differences in the oscillation phase were used to determine the presence of instantaneous synchronization between the different sites of the circuitry during the oscillatory period. Despite variation in the duration of the oscillatory response over successive trials, they showed a constant average power, suggesting that the rate of expenditure of energy during the gamma bursts is consistent across repeated stimulations. Within each gamma burst, the functional connectivity map reflected the columnar organization of the neocortex. Over successive trials, an apparently random rearrangement of the functional connectivity was observed, with a more stable columnar than horizontal organization. This work reveals new features of evoked gamma oscillations in developing cortex.

Assessment of left coronary artery beat-to-beat repositioning in order to propose an optimal acquisition window for coronary MRA

Introduction: Coronary magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) is a medical imaging technique that involves collecting data from consecutive heartbeats, always at the same time in the cardiac cycle, in order to minimize heart motion artifacts. This technique relies on the assumption that coronary arteries always follow the same trajectory from heartbeat to heartbeat. Until now, choosing the acquisition window in the cardiac cycle was based exclusively on the position of minimal coronary motion. The goal of this study was to test the hypothesis that there are time intervals during the cardiac cycle when coronary beat-to-beat repositioning is optimal. The repositioning uncertainty values in these time intervals were then compared with the intervals of low coronary motion in order to propose an optimal acquisition window for coronary MRA. Methods: Cine breath-hold x-ray angiograms with synchronous ECG were collected from 11 patients who underwent elective routine diagnostic coronarography. Twenty-three bifurcations of the left coronary artery were selected as markers to evaluate repositioning uncertainty and velocity during cardiac cycle. Each bifurcation was tracked by two observers, with the help of a user-assisted algorithm implemented in Matlab (The Mathworks, Natick, MA, USA) that compared the trajectories of the markers coming from consecutive heartbeats and computed the coronary repositioning uncertainty with steps of 50ms until 650ms after the R-wave. Repositioning uncertainty was defined as the diameter of the smallest circle encompassing the points to be compared at the same time after the R-wave. Student's t-tests with a false discovery rate (FDR, q=0.1) correction for multiple comparison were applied to see whether coronary repositioning and velocity vary statistically during cardiac cycle. Bland-Altman plots and linear regression were used to assess intra- and inter-observer agreement. Results: The analysis of left coronary artery beat-to-beat repositioning uncertainty shows a tendency to have better repositioning in mid systole (less than 0.84±0.58mm) and mid diastole (less than 0.89±0.6mm) than in the rest of the cardiac cycle (highest value at 50ms=1.35±0.64mm). According to Student's t-tests with FDR correction for multiple comparison (q=0.1), two intervals, in mid systole (150-200ms) and mid diastole (550-600ms), provide statistically better repositioning in comparison with the early systole and the early diastole. Coronary velocity analysis reveals that left coronary artery moves more slowly in end systole (14.35±11.35mm/s at 225ms) and mid diastole (11.78±11.62mm/s at 625ms) than in the rest of the cardiac cycle (highest value at 25ms: 55.96±22.34mm/s). This was confirmed by Student's t-tests with FDR correction for multiple comparison (q=0.1, FDR-corrected p-value=0.054): coronary velocity values at 225, 575 and 625ms are not much different between them but they are statistically inferior to all others. Bland-Altman plots and linear regression show that intra-observer agreement (y=0.97x+0.02 with R²=0.93 at 150ms) is better than inter-observer (y=0.8x+0.11 with R²=0.67 at 150ms). Discussion: The present study has demonstrated that there are two time intervals in the cardiac cycle, one in mid systole and one in mid diastole, where left coronary artery repositioning uncertainty reaches points of local minima. It has also been calculated that the velocity is the lowest in end systole and mid diastole. Since systole is less influenced by heart rate variability than diastole, it was finally proposed to test an acquisition window between 150 and 200ms after the R-wave.

Effective exposure to solar UV in building workers: influence of local and individual factors.

Excessive exposure to solar UV light is the main cause of skin cancers in humans. UV exposure depends on environmental as well as individual factors related to activity. Although outdoor occupational activities contribute significantly to the individual dose received, data on effective exposure are scarce and limited to a few occupations. A study was undertaken in order to assess effective short-term exposure among building workers and characterize the influence of individual and local factors on exposure. The effective exposure of construction workers in a mountainous area in the southern part of Switzerland was investigated through short-term dosimetry (97 dosimeters). Three altitudes, of about 500, 1500 and 2500 m were considered. Individual measurements over 20 working periods were performed using Spore film dosimeters on five body locations. The postural activity of workers was concomitantly recorded and static UV measurements were also performed. Effective exposure among building workers was high and exceeded occupational recommendations, for all individuals for at least one body location. The mean daily UV dose in plain was 11.9 SED (0.0-31.3 SED), in middle mountain 21.4 SED (6.6-46.8 SED) and in high mountain 28.6 SED (0.0-91.1 SED). Measured doses between workers and anatomical locations exhibited a high variability, stressing the role of local exposure conditions and individual factors. Short-term effective exposure ranged between 0 and 200% of ambient irradiation, indicating the occurrence of intense, subacute exposures. A predictive irradiation model was developed to investigate the role of individual factors. Posture and orientation were found to account for at least 38% of the total variance of relative individual exposure, and were also found to account more than altitude on the total variance of effective daily exposures. Targeted sensitization actions through professional information channels and specific prevention messages are recommended. Altitude outdoor workers should also benefit from preventive medical examination.

Overcoming the rare species modelling paradox: test of a novel hierarchical framework with an Iberian endemic plant

Rare species have restricted geographic ranges, habitat specialization, and/or small population sizes. Datasets on rare species distribution usually have few observations, limited spatial accuracy and lack of valid absences; conversely they provide comprehensive views of species distributions allowing to realistically capture most of their realized environmental niche. Rare species are the most in need of predictive distribution modelling but also the most difficult to model. We refer to this contrast as the "rare species modelling paradox" and propose as a solution developing modelling approaches that deal with a sufficiently large set of predictors, ensuring that statistical models aren't overfitted. Our novel approach fulfils this condition by fitting a large number of bivariate models and averaging them with a weighted ensemble approach. We further propose that this ensemble forecasting is conducted within a hierarchic multi-scale framework. We present two ensemble models for a test species, one at regional and one at local scale, each based on the combination of 630 models. In both cases, we obtained excellent spatial projections, unusual when modelling rare species. Model results highlight, from a statistically sound approach, the effects of multiple drivers in a same modelling framework and at two distinct scales. From this added information, regional models can support accurate forecasts of range dynamics under climate change scenarios, whereas local models allow the assessment of isolated or synergistic impacts of changes in multiple predictors. This novel framework provides a baseline for adaptive conservation, management and monitoring of rare species at distinct spatial and temporal scales.

Modelling changes in stable isotope compositions of minerals during net transfer reactions in a contact aureole: Wollastonite growth at the northern Hunter Mountain Batholith (Death Valley National Park, USA)

One of the world's largest wollastonite deposits was formed at the contact of the northern Hunter Mountain Batholith (California, USA) in Paleozoic sediments. Wollastonite occurs as zones of variable thickness surrounding layers or nodules of quartzite in limestones. A minimum formation temperature of 650 degrees C is estimated from isolated periclase-bearing lenses in that area. Contact metamorphism of siliceous carbonates has produced mineral assemblages that are consistent with heterogeneous, and partly limited infiltration of water-rich fluids, compatible with O-18/O-16 and C-13/C-12 isotopic patterns recorded in carbonates. Oxygen isotope compositions of wollastonites in the study area may also not require infiltration of large quantities of externally-derived fluids that were out of equilibrium with the rocks. 8180 values of wollastonite are high (14.8 parts per thousand to 25.0 parts per thousand; median: 19.7 parts per thousand) and close to those of the host limestone (19.7 parts per thousand to 28 parts per thousand; median: 24.9 parts per thousand) and quartz (18.0 parts per thousand. to 29.1 parts per thousand; median: 22.6 parts per thousand). Isotopic disequilibrium exists at quartz/wollastonite and wollastonite/calcite boundaries. Therefore, classical batch/Rayleigh fractionation models based on reactant and product equilibrium are not applicable to the wollastonite rims. An approach that relies on local instantaneous mass balance for the reactants, based on the wollastonite-forming reaction is suggested as an alternative way to model wollastonite reaction rims. This model reproduces many of the measured delta O-18 values of wollastonite reaction rims of the current study to within +/- 1 parts per thousand, even though the wollastonite compositions vary by almost 10 parts per thousand. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global and local connectivity changes in schizophrenia investigated by diffusion connectome

Background: New ways of representing diffusion data emerged recently and achieved to create structural connectivitymaps in healthy brains (Hagmann P et al. (2008)). These maps have the capacity to study alterations over the entire brain at the connection and network level. This is of high interest in complex disconnection diseases like schizophrenia. In this Pathology where multiple lines of evidence suggest the association of the pathology with abnormalities in neural circuitry and impaired structural connectivity, the diffusion imaging has been widely applied. Despite the large findings, most of the research using the diffusion just uses some scalar map derived from diffusion to show that some markers of white matter integrity are diminished in several areas of the brain (Kyriakopoulos M et al (2008)). Thanks to the structural connectionmatrix constructed by the whole brain tractography, we report in this work the network connectivity alterations in the schizophrenic patients. Methods: We investigated 13 schizophrenic patients as assessed by the DIGS (Diagnostic Interview for genetic studies, DSM IV criteria) and 13 healthy controls. We have got from each volunteer a DT-MRI as well as Qball imaging dataset and a high resolution anatomic T1 performed during the same session; with a 3 T clinical MRI scanner. The controls were matched on age, gender, handedness, and parental social economic-status. For all the subjects, a low resolution connection matrix is obtained by dividing the cortex into 66 gyral based ROIs. A higher resolution matrix is constructed using 250 ROIs as described in Hagmann P et al. (2008). These ROIs are respectively used jointly with the diffusion tractography to construct the high and low resolution densities connection matrices for each subject. In a first step the matrices of the groups are compared in term of connectivity, and not in term of density to check if the pathological group shows a loss of global connectivity. In this context the density connection matrices were binarized. As some local connectivity changes were also suspected, especially in frontal and temporal areas, we have also looked for the areas where the connectivity showed significant changes. Results: The statistical analysis revealed a significant loss of global connectivity in the schizophrenic's brains at level 5%. Furthermore, by constructing specific statistics which represent local connectivity within the anatomical regions (66 ROIs) using the data obtained by the finest resolution (250 ROIs) to improve the robustness, we found the regions that cause this significant loss of connectivity. The significance is observed after multiple testing corrections by the False Discovery Rate. Discussion: The detected regions are almost the same as those reported in the literature as the involved regions in schizophrenia. Most of the connectivity decreases are noted in both hemispheres in the fronto-frontal and temporo-temporal regions as well as some temporal ROIs with their adjacent ROIs in parietal and occipital lobes.

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by processbased modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws.We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25m resolution.

Cognitive issues in fingerprint analysis: Inter- and intra-expert consistency and the effect of a "target" comparison

Deciding whether two fingerprint marks originate from the same source requires examination and comparison of their features. Many cognitive factors play a major role in such information processing. In this paper we examined the consistency (both between- and within-experts) in the analysis of latent marks, and whether the presence of a 'target' comparison print affects this analysis. Our findings showed that the context of a comparison print affected analysis of the latent mark, possibly influencing allocation of attention, visual search, and threshold for determining a 'signal'. We also found that even without the context of the comparison print there was still a lack of consistency in analysing latent marks. Not only was this reflected by inconsistency between different experts, but the same experts at different times were inconsistent with their own analysis. However, the characterization of these inconsistencies depends on the standard and definition of what constitutes inconsistent. Furthermore, these effects were not uniform; the lack of consistency varied across fingerprints and experts. We propose solutions to mediate variability in the analysis of friction ridge skin.

Variability of voriconazole plasma levels measured by new high-performance liquid chromatography and bioassay methods.

Voriconazole (VRC) is a broad-spectrum antifungal triazole with nonlinear pharmacokinetics. The utility of measurement of voriconazole blood levels for optimizing therapy is a matter of debate. Available high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and bioassay methods are technically complex, time-consuming, or have a narrow analytical range. Objectives of the present study were to develop new, simple analytical methods and to assess variability of voriconazole blood levels in patients with invasive mycoses. Acetonitrile precipitation, reverse-phase separation, and UV detection were used for HPLC. A voriconazole-hypersusceptible Candida albicans mutant lacking multidrug efflux transporters (cdr1Delta/cdr1Delta, cdr2Delta/cdr2Delta, flu1Delta/flu1Delta, and mdr1Delta/mdr1Delta) and calcineurin subunit A (cnaDelta/cnaDelta) was used for bioassay. Mean intra-/interrun accuracies over the VRC concentration range from 0.25 to 16 mg/liter were 93.7% +/- 5.0%/96.5% +/- 2.4% (HPLC) and 94.9% +/- 6.1%/94.7% +/- 3.3% (bioassay). Mean intra-/interrun coefficients of variation were 5.2% +/- 1.5%/5.4% +/- 0.9% and 6.5% +/- 2.5%/4.0% +/- 1.6% for HPLC and bioassay, respectively. The coefficient of concordance between HPLC and bioassay was 0.96. Sequential measurements in 10 patients with invasive mycoses showed important inter- and intraindividual variations of estimated voriconazole area under the concentration-time curve (AUC): median, 43.9 mg x h/liter (range, 12.9 to 71.1) on the first and 27.4 mg x h/liter (range, 2.9 to 93.1) on the last day of therapy. During therapy, AUC decreased in five patients, increased in three, and remained unchanged in two. A toxic encephalopathy probably related to the increase of the VRC AUC (from 71.1 to 93.1 mg x h/liter) was observed. The VRC AUC decreased (from 12.9 to 2.9 mg x h/liter) in a patient with persistent signs of invasive aspergillosis. These preliminary observations suggest that voriconazole over- or underexposure resulting from variability of blood levels might have clinical implications. Simple HPLC and bioassay methods offer new tools for monitoring voriconazole therapy.

The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling.

Predicting which species will occur together in the future, and where, remains one of the greatest challenges in ecology, and requires a sound understanding of how the abiotic and biotic environments interact with dispersal processes and history across scales. Biotic interactions and their dynamics influence species' relationships to climate, and this also has important implications for predicting future distributions of species. It is already well accepted that biotic interactions shape species' spatial distributions at local spatial extents, but the role of these interactions beyond local extents (e.g. 10 km(2) to global extents) are usually dismissed as unimportant. In this review we consolidate evidence for how biotic interactions shape species distributions beyond local extents and review methods for integrating biotic interactions into species distribution modelling tools. Drawing upon evidence from contemporary and palaeoecological studies of individual species ranges, functional groups, and species richness patterns, we show that biotic interactions have clearly left their mark on species distributions and realised assemblages of species across all spatial extents. We demonstrate this with examples from within and across trophic groups. A range of species distribution modelling tools is available to quantify species environmental relationships and predict species occurrence, such as: (i) integrating pairwise dependencies, (ii) using integrative predictors, and (iii) hybridising species distribution models (SDMs) with dynamic models. These methods have typically only been applied to interacting pairs of species at a single time, require a priori ecological knowledge about which species interact, and due to data paucity must assume that biotic interactions are constant in space and time. To better inform the future development of these models across spatial scales, we call for accelerated collection of spatially and temporally explicit species data. Ideally, these data should be sampled to reflect variation in the underlying environment across large spatial extents, and at fine spatial resolution. Simplified ecosystems where there are relatively few interacting species and sometimes a wealth of existing ecosystem monitoring data (e.g. arctic, alpine or island habitats) offer settings where the development of modelling tools that account for biotic interactions may be less difficult than elsewhere.

Social rationality and scales of action: inter-ethnic relations in cockfighting and game-fishing, Raiatea, French Polynesia

This article challenges the notion of economic rationality as a criterion for explaining ethnic boundary maintenance. It offers an ethnographic analysis of inter-ethnic relations in the context of games (cockfights and game-fishing contests) in the island of Raiatea (French Polynesia). Although all players engage in the same basic gambling practices, money is differentially scaled and mobilized by the Tahitian and Chinese participants. Building on recent pragmatic approaches to rationality, it is shown that the players' rationalities differ not from the point of view of economic maximization, but only in so far as they participate in social relations at different scales.

Coordination pattern variability provides functional adaptations to constraints in swimming performance.

In a biophysical approach to the study of swimming performance (blending biomechanics and bioenergetics), inter-limb coordination is typically considered and analysed to improve propulsion and propelling efficiency. In this approach, 'opposition' or 'continuous' patterns of inter-limb coordination, where continuity between propulsive actions occurs, are promoted in the acquisition of expertise. Indeed a 'continuous' pattern theoretically minimizes intra-cyclic speed variations of the centre of mass. Consequently, it may also minimize the energy cost of locomotion. However, in skilled swimming performance there is a need to strike a delicate balance between inter-limb coordination pattern stability and variability, suggesting the absence of an 'ideal' pattern of coordination toward which all swimmers must converge or seek to imitate. Instead, an ecological dynamics framework advocates that there is an intertwined relationship between the specific intentions, perceptions and actions of individual swimmers, which constrains this relationship between coordination pattern stability and variability. This perspective explains how behaviours emerge from a set of interacting constraints, which each swimmer has to satisfy in order to achieve specific task performance goals and produce particular task outcomes. This overview updates understanding on inter-limb coordination in swimming to analyse the relationship between coordination variability and stability in relation to interacting constraints (related to task, environment and organism) that swimmers may encounter during training and performance.

Local selection rules that can determine specific pathways of DNA unknotting by type II DNA topoisomerases.

We performed numerical simulations of DNA chains to understand how local geometry of juxtaposed segments in knotted DNA molecules can guide type II DNA topoisomerases to perform very efficient relaxation of DNA knots. We investigated how the various parameters defining the geometry of inter-segmental juxtapositions at sites of inter-segmental passage reactions mediated by type II DNA topoisomerases can affect the topological consequences of these reactions. We confirmed the hypothesis that by recognizing specific geometry of juxtaposed DNA segments in knotted DNA molecules, type II DNA topoisomerases can maintain the steady-state knotting level below the topological equilibrium. In addition, we revealed that a preference for a particular geometry of juxtaposed segments as sites of strand-passage reaction enables type II DNA topoisomerases to select the most efficient pathway of relaxation of complex DNA knots. The analysis of the best selection criteria for efficient relaxation of complex knots revealed that local structures in random configurations of a given knot type statistically behave as analogous local structures in ideal geometric configurations of the corresponding knot type.

How quickly should we titrate antihypertensive medication? Systematic review modelling blood pressure response from trial data.

Context There are no evidence syntheses available to guide clinicians on when to titrate antihypertensive medication after initiation. Objective To model the blood pressure (BP) response after initiating antihypertensive medication. Data sources electronic databases including Medline, Embase, Cochrane Register and reference lists up to December 2009. Study selection Trials that initiated antihypertensive medication as single therapy in hypertensive patients who were either drug naive or had a placebo washout from previous drugs. Data extraction Office BP measurements at a minimum of two weekly intervals for a minimum of 4 weeks. An asymptotic approach model of BP response was assumed and non-linear mixed effects modelling used to calculate model parameters. Results and conclusions Eighteen trials that recruited 4168 patients met inclusion criteria. The time to reach 50% of the maximum estimated BP lowering effect was 1 week (systolic 0.91 weeks, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.10; diastolic 0.95, 0.75 to 1.15). Models incorporating drug class as a source of variability did not improve fit of the data. Incorporating the presence of a titration schedule improved model fit for both systolic and diastolic pressure. Titration increased both the predicted maximum effect and the time taken to reach 50% of the maximum (systolic 1.2 vs 0.7 weeks; diastolic 1.4 vs 0.7 weeks). Conclusions Estimates of the maximum efficacy of antihypertensive agents can be made early after starting therapy. This knowledge will guide clinicians in deciding when a newly started antihypertensive agent is likely to be effective or not at controlling BP.