Niche, distribution and global change : modeling insights into biogeography and conservation biology Olivier Broennimann

RESUME Les évidences montrant que les changements globaux affectent la biodiversité s'accumulent. Les facteurs les plus influant dans ce processus sont les changements et destructions d'habitat, l'expansion des espèces envahissantes et l'impact des changements climatiques. Une évaluation pertinente de la réponse des espèces face à ces changements est essentielle pour proposer des mesures permettant de réduire le déclin actuel de la biodiversité. La modélisation de la répartition d'espèces basée sur la niche (NBM) est l'un des rares outils permettant cette évaluation. Néanmoins, leur application dans le contexte des changements globaux repose sur des hypothèses restrictives et demande une interprétation critique. Ce travail présente une série d'études de cas investiguant les possibilités et limitations de cette approche pour prédire l'impact des changements globaux. Deux études traitant des menaces sur les espèces rares et en danger d'extinction sont présentées. Les caractéristiques éco-géographiques de 118 plantes avec un haut degré de priorité de conservation sont revues. La prévalence des types de rareté sont analysées en relation avec leur risque d'extinction UICN. La revue souligne l'importance de la conservation à l'échelle régionale. Une évaluation de la rareté à échelle globale peut être trompeuse pour certaine espèces car elle ne tient pas en compte des différents degrés de rareté que présente une espèce à différentes échelles spatiales. La deuxième étude test une approche pour améliorer l'échantillonnage d'espèces rares en incluant des phases itératives de modélisation et d'échantillonnage sur le terrain. L'application de l'approche en biologie de la conservation (illustrée ici par le cas du chardon bleu, Eryngium alpinum), permettrait de réduire le temps et les coûts d'échantillonnage. Deux études sur l'impact des changements climatiques sur la faune et la flore africaine sont présentées. La première étude évalue la sensibilité de 227 mammifères africains face aux climatiques d'ici 2050. Elle montre qu'un nombre important d'espèces pourrait être bientôt en danger d'extinction et que les parcs nationaux africains (principalement ceux situé en milieux xériques) pourraient ne pas remplir leur mandat de protection de la biodiversité dans le futur. La seconde étude modélise l'aire de répartition en 2050 de 975 espèces de plantes endémiques du sud de l'Afrique. L'étude propose l'inclusion de méthodes améliorant la prédiction des risques liés aux changements climatiques. Elle propose également une méthode pour estimer a priori la sensibilité d'une espèce aux changements climatiques à partir de ses propriétés écologiques et des caractéristiques de son aire de répartition. Trois études illustrent l'utilisation des modèles dans l'étude des invasions biologiques. Une première étude relate l'expansion de la laitue sáuvage (Lactuca serriola) vers le nord de l'Europe en lien avec les changements du climat depuis 250 ans. La deuxième étude analyse le potentiel d'invasion de la centaurée tachetée (Centaures maculosa), une mauvaise herbe importée en Amérique du nord vers 1890. L'étude apporte la preuve qu'une espèce envahissante peut occuper une niche climatique différente après introduction sur un autre continent. Les modèles basés sur l'aire native prédisent de manière incorrecte l'entier de l'aire envahie mais permettent de prévoir les aires d'introductions potentielles. Une méthode alternative, incluant la calibration du modèle à partir des deux aires où l'espèce est présente, est proposée pour améliorer les prédictions de l'invasion en Amérique du nord. Je présente finalement une revue de la littérature sur la dynamique de la niche écologique dans le temps et l'espace. Elle synthétise les récents développements théoriques concernant le conservatisme de la niche et propose des solutions pour améliorer la pertinence des prédictions d'impact des changements climatiques et des invasions biologiques. SUMMARY Evidences are accumulating that biodiversity is facing the effects of global change. The most influential drivers of change in ecosystems are land-use change, alien species invasions and climate change impacts. Accurate projections of species' responses to these changes are needed to propose mitigation measures to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Niche-based models (NBM) currently represent one of the only tools for such projections. However, their application in the context of global changes relies on restrictive assumptions, calling for cautious interpretations. In this thesis I aim to assess the effectiveness and shortcomings of niche-based models for the study of global change impacts on biodiversity through the investigation of specific, unsolved limitations and suggestion of new approaches. Two studies investigating threats to rare and endangered plants are presented. I review the ecogeographic characteristic of 118 endangered plants with high conservation priority in Switzerland. The prevalence of rarity types among plant species is analyzed in relation to IUCN extinction risks. The review underlines the importance of regional vs. global conservation and shows that a global assessment of rarity might be misleading for some species because it can fail to account for different degrees of rarity at a variety of spatial scales. The second study tests a modeling framework including iterative steps of modeling and field surveys to improve the sampling of rare species. The approach is illustrated with a rare alpine plant, Eryngium alpinum and shows promise for complementing conservation practices and reducing sampling costs. Two studies illustrate the impacts of climate change on African taxa. The first one assesses the sensitivity of 277 mammals at African scale to climate change by 2050 in terms of species richness and turnover. It shows that a substantial number of species could be critically endangered in the future. National parks situated in xeric ecosystems are not expected to meet their mandate of protecting current species diversity in the future. The second study model the distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa. The study proposes the inclusion of new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies. It also investigates the possibility to estimate a priori the sensitivity of a species to climate change from the geographical distribution and ecological proprieties of the species. Three studies illustrate the application of NBM in the study of biological invasions. The first one investigates the Northwards expansion of Lactuca serriola L. in Europe during the last 250 years in relation with climate changes. In the last two decades, the species could not track climate change due to non climatic influences. A second study analyses the potential invasion extent of spotted knapweed, a European weed first introduced into North America in the 1890s. The study provides one of the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. Models fail to predict the current full extent of the invasion, but correctly predict areas of introduction. An alternative approach, involving the calibration of models with pooled data from both ranges, is proposed to improve predictions of the extent of invasion on models based solely on the native range. I finally present a review on the dynamic nature of ecological niches in space and time. It synthesizes the recent theoretical developments to the niche conservatism issues and proposes solutions to improve confidence in NBM predictions of the impacts of climate change and species invasions on species distributions.

Direct in vitro comparison of six three-dimensional positive contrast methods for susceptibility marker imaging.

PURPOSE: To compare different techniques for positive contrast imaging of susceptibility markers with MRI for three-dimensional visualization. As several different techniques have been reported, the choice of the suitable method depends on its properties with regard to the amount of positive contrast and the desired background suppression, as well as other imaging constraints needed for a specific application. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Six different positive contrast techniques are investigated for their ability to image at 3 Tesla a single susceptibility marker in vitro. The white marker method (WM), susceptibility gradient mapping (SGM), inversion recovery with on-resonant water suppression (IRON), frequency selective excitation (FSX), fast low flip-angle positive contrast SSFP (FLAPS), and iterative decomposition of water and fat with echo asymmetry and least-squares estimation (IDEAL) were implemented and investigated. RESULTS: The different methods were compared with respect to the volume of positive contrast, the product of volume and signal intensity, imaging time, and the level of background suppression. Quantitative results are provided, and strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches are discussed. CONCLUSION: The appropriate choice of positive contrast imaging technique depends on the desired level of background suppression, acquisition speed, and robustness against artifacts, for which in vitro comparative data are now available.

Source-wavelet estimation during full-waveform inversion of ground-penetrating radar data

A major issue in the application of waveform inversion methods to crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data is the accurate estimation of the source wavelet. Here, we explore the viability and robustness of incorporating this step into a recently published time-domain inversion procedure through an iterative deconvolution approach. Our results indicate that, at least in non-dispersive electrical environments, such an approach provides remarkably accurate and robust estimates of the source wavelet even in the presence of strong heterogeneity of both the dielectric permittivity and electrical conductivity. Our results also indicate that the proposed source wavelet estimation approach is relatively insensitive to ambient noise and to the phase characteristics of the starting wavelet. Finally, there appears to be little to no trade-off between the wavelet estimation and the tomographic imaging procedures.

A new method to estimate the infilling of alluvial sediment of glacial valleys using a sloping local base level

A new method is used to estimate the volumes of sediments of glacial valleys. This method is based on the concept of sloping local base level and requires only a digital terrain model and the limits of the alluvial valleys as input data. The bedrock surface of the glacial valley is estimated by a progressive excavation of the digital elevation model (DEM) of the filled valley area. This is performed using an iterative routine that replaces the altitude of a point of the DEM by the mean value of its neighbors minus a fixed value. The result is a curved surface, quadratic in 2D. The bedrock surface of the Rhone Valley in Switzerland was estimated by this method using the free digital terrain model Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) (~92 m resolution). The results obtained are in good agreement with the previous estimations based on seismic profiles and gravimetric modeling, with the exceptions of some particular locations. The results from the present method and those from the seismic interpretation are slightly different from the results of the gravimetric data. This discrepancy may result from the presence of large buried landslides in the bottom of the Rhone Valley.

Modelling hydrodynamics in the Rio Parana, Argentina : an evaluation and inter-comparison of reduced-complexity and physics based models applied to a large sand-bed river

Depth-averaged velocities and unit discharges within a 30 km reach of one of the world's largest rivers, the Rio Parana, Argentina, were simulated using three hydrodynamic models with different process representations: a reduced complexity (RC) model that neglects most of the physics governing fluid flow, a two-dimensional model based on the shallow water equations, and a three-dimensional model based on the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. Row characteristics simulated using all three models were compared with data obtained by acoustic Doppler current profiler surveys at four cross sections within the study reach. This analysis demonstrates that, surprisingly, the performance of the RC model is generally equal to, and in some instances better than, that of the physics based models in terms of the statistical agreement between simulated and measured flow properties. In addition, in contrast to previous applications of RC models, the present study demonstrates that the RC model can successfully predict measured flow velocities. The strong performance of the RC model reflects, in part, the simplicity of the depth-averaged mean flow patterns within the study reach and the dominant role of channel-scale topographic features in controlling the flow dynamics. Moreover, the very low water surface slopes that typify large sand-bed rivers enable flow depths to be estimated reliably in the RC model using a simple fixed-lid planar water surface approximation. This approach overcomes a major problem encountered in the application of RC models in environments characterised by shallow flows and steep bed gradients. The RC model is four orders of magnitude faster than the physics based models when performing steady-state hydrodynamic calculations. However, the iterative nature of the RC model calculations implies a reduction in computational efficiency relative to some other RC models. A further implication of this is that, if used to simulate channel morphodynamics, the present RC model may offer only a marginal advantage in terms of computational efficiency over approaches based on the shallow water equations. These observations illustrate the trade off between model realism and efficiency that is a key consideration in RC modelling. Moreover, this outcome highlights a need to rethink the use of RC morphodynamic models in fluvial geomorphology and to move away from existing grid-based approaches, such as the popular cellular automata (CA) models, that remain essentially reductionist in nature. In the case of the world's largest sand-bed rivers, this might be achieved by implementing the RC model outlined here as one element within a hierarchical modelling framework that would enable computationally efficient simulation of the morphodynamics of large rivers over millennial time scales. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Efficient total variation algorithm for fetal brain MRI reconstruction.

Fetal MRI reconstruction aims at finding a high-resolution image given a small set of low-resolution images. It is usually modeled as an inverse problem where the regularization term plays a central role in the reconstruction quality. Literature has considered several regularization terms s.a. Dirichlet/Laplacian energy, Total Variation (TV)- based energies and more recently non-local means. Although TV energies are quite attractive because of their ability in edge preservation, standard explicit steepest gradient techniques have been applied to optimize fetal-based TV energies. The main contribution of this work lies in the introduction of a well-posed TV algorithm from the point of view of convex optimization. Specifically, our proposed TV optimization algorithm or fetal reconstruction is optimal w.r.t. the asymptotic and iterative convergence speeds O(1/n2) and O(1/√ε), while existing techniques are in O(1/n2) and O(1/√ε). We apply our algorithm to (1) clinical newborn data, considered as ground truth, and (2) clinical fetal acquisitions. Our algorithm compares favorably with the literature in terms of speed and accuracy.

Molecular chaperones are nanomachines that catalytically unfold misfolded and alternatively folded proteins.

By virtue of their general ability to bind (hold) translocating or unfolding polypeptides otherwise doomed to aggregate, molecular chaperones are commonly dubbed "holdases". Yet, chaperones also carry physiological functions that do not necessitate prevention of aggregation, such as altering the native states of proteins, as in the disassembly of SNARE complexes and clathrin coats. To carry such physiological functions, major members of the Hsp70, Hsp110, Hsp100, and Hsp60/CCT chaperone families act as catalytic unfolding enzymes or unfoldases that drive iterative cycles of protein binding, unfolding/pulling, and release. One unfoldase chaperone may thus successively convert many misfolded or alternatively folded polypeptide substrates into transiently unfolded intermediates, which, once released, can spontaneously refold into low-affinity native products. Whereas during stress, a large excess of non-catalytic chaperones in holding mode may optimally prevent protein aggregation, after the stress, catalytic disaggregases and unfoldases may act as nanomachines that use the energy of ATP hydrolysis to repair proteins with compromised conformations. Thus, holding and catalytic unfolding chaperones can act as primary cellular defenses against the formation of early misfolded and aggregated proteotoxic conformers in order to avert or retard the onset of degenerative protein conformational diseases.

The Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) Statement: Guidelines for reporting observational studies.

Much biomedical research is observational. The reporting of such research is often inadequate, which hampers the assessment of its strengths and weaknesses and of a study's generalisability. The Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) Initiative developed recommendations on what should be included in an accurate and complete report of an observational study. We defined the scope of the recommendations to cover three main study designs: cohort, case-control, and cross-sectional studies. We convened a 2-day workshop in September 2004, with methodologists, researchers, and journal editors to draft a checklist of items. This list was subsequently revised during several meetings of the coordinating group and in e-mail discussions with the larger group of STROBE contributors, taking into account empirical evidence and methodological considerations. The workshop and the subsequent iterative process of consultation and revision resulted in a checklist of 22 items (the STROBE Statement) that relate to the title, abstract, introduction, methods, results, and discussion sections of articles. 18 items are common to all three study designs and four are specific for cohort, case-control, or cross-sectional studies. A detailed Explanation and Elaboration document is published separately and is freely available on the Web sites of PLoS Medicine, Annals of Internal Medicine, and Epidemiology. We hope that the STROBE Statement will contribute to improving the quality of reporting of observational studies.

Diagnostic algorithm for a validated displacement grading of pediatric supracondylar fractures.

Background: The first AO comprehensive pediatric long bone fracture classification system has been established following a structured path of development and validation with experienced pediatric surgeons. Methods: A follow-up series of agreement studies was applied to specify and evaluate a grading system for displacement of pediatric supracondylar fractures. An iterative process comprising an international group of 5 experienced pediatric surgeons (Phase 1) followed by a pragmatic multicenter agreement study involving 26 raters (Phase 2) was used. The last evaluations were conducted on a consecutive collection of 154 supracondylar fractures documented by standard anteroposterior and lateral radiographs. Results: Fractures were classified according to 1 of 4 grades: I = incomplete fracture with no or minimal displacement; II = Incomplete fracture with continuity of the posterior (extension fracture) or anterior cortex (flexion fracture); III = lack of bone continuity (broken cortex), but still some contact between the fracture planes; IV = complete fracture with no bone continuity (broken cortex), and no contact between the fracture planes. A diagnostic algorithm to support the practical application of the grading system in a clinical setting, as well as an aid using a circle placed over the capitellum was proposed. The overall kappa coefficients were 0.68 and 0.61 in the Phase 1 and Phase 2 studies, respectively. In the Phase 1 study, fracture grades I, II, III, and IV were classified with median accuracies of 91%, 82%, 83%, and 99.5%, respectively. Similar median accuracies of 86% (Grade I), 73% (Grade II), 83%(Grade III), and 92% were reported for the Phase 2 study. Reliability was high in distinguishing complete, unstable fractures from stable injuries [ie, kappa coefficients of 0.84 (Phase 1) and 0.83 (Phase 2) were calculated]; in Phase 2, surgeons' accuracies in classifying complete fractures were all above 85%. Conclusions: With clear and unambiguous definition, this new grading system for supracondylar fracture displacement has proved to be sufficiently reliable and accurate when applied by pediatric surgeons in the framework of clinical routine as well as research.

Médecine d'urgence [Emergency medicine: updates 2013].

New evidences published this year are susceptible to change the management of several medical emergencies. Combined antiplatelet therapy might be beneficial for the management of TIA or minor stroke and rapid blood pressure lowering might improve the outcome in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage. A restrictive red cell transfusion strategy is indicated in case of upper digestive bleeding and coagulation factors concentrates are superior to fresh frozen plasma for urgent warfarin reversal. Prolonged systemic steroid therapy is not warranted in case of acute exacerbation of BPCO, and iterative physiotherapy is not beneficial after acute whiplash. Finally, family presence during cardiopulmonary resuscitation may reduce post-traumatic stress disorder among relatives.

Crustal structure and reflectivity of the Swiss Alps from 3-Dimensional seismic modeling. 2. Penninic Nappes

Surface geological mapping, laboratory measurements of rock properties, and seismic reflection data are integrated through three-dimensional seismic modeling to determine the likely cause of upper crustal reflections and to elucidate the deep structure of the Penninic Alps in eastern Switzerland. Results indicate that the principal upper crustal reflections recorded on the south end of Swiss seismic line NFP20-EAST can be explained by the subsurface geometry of stacked basement nappes. In addition, modeling results provide improvements to structural maps based solely on surface trends and suggest the presence of previously unrecognized rock units in the subsurface. Construction of the initial model is based upon extrapolation of plunging surface. structures; velocities and densities are established by laboratory measurements of corresponding rock units. Iterative modification produces a best fit model that refines the definition of the subsurface geometry of major structures. We conclude that most reflections from the upper 20 km can be ascribed to the presence of sedimentary cover rocks (especially carbonates) and ophiolites juxtaposed against crystalline basement nappes. Thus, in this area, reflections appear to be principally due to first-order lithologic contrasts. This study also demonstrates not only the importance of three-dimensional effects (sideswipe) in interpreting seismic data, but also that these effects can be considered quantitatively through three-dimensional modeling.

3D noise power spectrum applied on clinical mdct scanners: effects of reconstruction algorithms and reconstruction filters

The noise power spectrum (NPS) is the reference metric for understanding the noise content in computed tomography (CT) images. To evaluate the noise properties of clinical multidetector (MDCT) scanners, local 2D and 3D NPSs were computed for different acquisition reconstruction parameters.A 64- and a 128-MDCT scanners were employed. Measurements were performed on a water phantom in axial and helical acquisition modes. CT dose index was identical for both installations. Influence of parameters such as the pitch, the reconstruction filter (soft, standard and bone) and the reconstruction algorithm (filtered-back projection (FBP), adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR)) were investigated. Images were also reconstructed in the coronal plane using a reformat process. Then 2D and 3D NPS methods were computed.In axial acquisition mode, the 2D axial NPS showed an important magnitude variation as a function of the z-direction when measured at the phantom center. In helical mode, a directional dependency with lobular shape was observed while the magnitude of the NPS was kept constant. Important effects of the reconstruction filter, pitch and reconstruction algorithm were observed on 3D NPS results for both MDCTs. With ASIR, a reduction of the NPS magnitude and a shift of the NPS peak to the low frequency range were visible. 2D coronal NPS obtained from the reformat images was impacted by the interpolation when compared to 2D coronal NPS obtained from 3D measurements.The noise properties of volume measured in last generation MDCTs was studied using local 3D NPS metric. However, impact of the non-stationarity noise effect may need further investigations.

Study of OSEM with different subsets in grating-based X-ray differential phase-contrast imaging.

Impressive developments in X-ray imaging are associated with X-ray phase contrast computed tomography based on grating interferometry, a technique that provides increased contrast compared with conventional absorption-based imaging. A new "single-step" method capable of separating phase information from other contributions has been recently proposed. This approach not only simplifies data-acquisition procedures, but, compared with the existing phase step approach, significantly reduces the dose delivered to a sample. However, the image reconstruction procedure is more demanding than for traditional methods and new algorithms have to be developed to take advantage of the "single-step" method. In the work discussed in this paper, a fast iterative image reconstruction method named OSEM (ordered subsets expectation maximization) was applied to experimental data to evaluate its performance and range of applicability. The OSEM algorithm with different subsets was also characterized by comparison of reconstruction image quality and convergence speed. Computer simulations and experimental results confirm the reliability of this new algorithm for phase-contrast computed tomography applications. Compared with the traditional filtered back projection algorithm, in particular in the presence of a noisy acquisition, it furnishes better images at a higher spatial resolution and with lower noise. We emphasize that the method is highly compatible with future X-ray phase contrast imaging clinical applications.

A prospective development study investigating focal irreversible electroporation in men with localised prostate cancer: Nanoknife Electroporation Ablation Trial (NEAT).

INTRODUCTION: Focal therapy may reduce the toxicity of current radical treatments while maintaining the oncological benefit. Irreversible electroporation (IRE) has been proposed to be tissue selective and so might have favourable characteristics compared to the currently used prostate ablative technologies. The aim of this trial is to determine the adverse events, genito-urinary side effects and early histological outcomes of focal IRE in men with localised prostate cancer. METHODS: This is a single centre prospective development (stage 2a) study following the IDEAL recommendations for evaluating new surgical procedures. Twenty men who have MRI-visible disease localised in the anterior part of the prostate will be recruited. The sample size permits a precision estimate around key functional outcomes. Inclusion criteria include PSA ≤ 15 ng/ml, Gleason score ≤ 4 + 3, stage T2N0M0 and absence of clinically significant disease outside the treatment area. Treatment delivery will be changed in an adaptive iterative manner so as to allow optimisation of the IRE protocol. After focal IRE, men will be followed during 12 months using validated patient reported outcome measures (IPSS, IIEF-15, UCLA-EPIC, EQ-5D, FACT-P, MAX-PC). Early disease control will be evaluated by mpMRI and targeted transperineal biopsy of the treated area at 6 months. DISCUSSION: The NEAT trial will assess the early functional and disease control outcome of focal IRE using an adaptive design. Our protocol can provide guidance for designing an adaptive trial to assess new surgical technologies in the challenging landscape of health technology assessment in prostate cancer treatment.