Substantial advantage of a combined Bayesian and genotyping approach in testosterone doping tests.

Testosterone abuse is conventionally assessed by the urinary testosterone/epitestosterone (T/E) ratio, levels above 4.0 being considered suspicious. A deletion polymorphism in the gene coding for UGT2B17 is strongly associated with reduced testosterone glucuronide (TG) levels in urine. Many of the individuals devoid of the gene would not reach a T/E ratio of 4.0 after testosterone intake. Future test programs will most likely shift from population based- to individual-based T/E cut-off ratios using Bayesian inference. A longitudinal analysis is dependent on an individual's true negative baseline T/E ratio. The aim was to investigate whether it is possible to increase the sensitivity and specificity of the T/E test by addition of UGT2B17 genotype information in a Bayesian framework. A single intramuscular dose of 500mg testosterone enanthate was given to 55 healthy male volunteers with either two, one or no allele (ins/ins, ins/del or del/del) of the UGT2B17 gene. Urinary excretion of TG and the T/E ratio was measured during 15 days. The Bayesian analysis was conducted to calculate the individual T/E cut-off ratio. When adding the genotype information, the program returned lower individual cut-off ratios in all del/del subjects increasing the sensitivity of the test considerably. It will be difficult, if not impossible, to discriminate between a true negative baseline T/E value and a false negative one without knowledge of the UGT2B17 genotype. UGT2B17 genotype information is crucial, both to decide which initial cut-off ratio to use for an individual, and for increasing the sensitivity of the Bayesian analysis.

Reply to Budowle, Ge, Chakraborty and Gill-King: use of prior odds for missing persons identifications

Prior probabilities represent a core element of the Bayesian probabilistic approach to relatedness testing. This letter opinions on the commentary 'Use of prior odds for missing persons identifications' by Budowle et al. (2011), published recently in this journal. Contrary to Budowle et al. (2011), we argue that the concept of prior probabilities (i) is not endowed with the notion of objectivity, (ii) is not a case for computation and (iii) does not require new guidelines edited by the forensic DNA community - as long as probability is properly considered as an expression of personal belief. Please see related article: http://www.investigativegenetics.com/content/3/1/3

The hematology laboratory in blood doping (bd): 2014 update on the athlete biological passport (APB)

Introduction: Blood doping (BD) is the use of Erythropoietic Stimulating Agents (ESAs) and/or transfusion to increase aerobic performance in athletes. Direct toxicologic techniques are insufficient to unmask sophisticated doping protocols. The Hematological module of the ABP (World Anti-Doping Agency), associates decision support technology and expert assessment to indirectly detect BD hematological effects. Methods: The ABP module is based on blood parameters, under strict pre-analytical and analytical rules for collection, storage and transport at 2-12°C, internal and external QC. Accuracy, reproducibility and interlaboratory harmonization fulfill forensic standard. Blood samples are collected in competition and out-ofcompetition. Primary parameters for longitudinal monitoring are: - hemoglobin (HGB); - reticulocyte percentage (RET); - OFF score, indicator of suppressed erythropoiesis, calculated as [HGB(g/L) * 60-√RET%]. Statistical calculation predicts individual expected limits by probabilistic inference. Secondary parameters are RBC, HCT, MCHC-MCH-MCV-RDW-IFR. ABP profiles flagged as atypical are review by experts in hematology, pharmacology, sports medicine or physiology, and classified as: - normal - suspect (to target) - likely due to BD - likely due to pathology. Results: Thousands of athletes worldwide are currently monitored. Since 2010, at least 35 athletes have been sanctioned and others are prosecuted on the sole basis of abnormal ABP, with a 240% increase of positivity to direct tests for ESA, thanks to improved targeting of suspicious athletes (WADA data). Specific doping scenarios have been identified by the Experts (Table and Figure). Figure. Typical HGB and RET profiles in two highly suspicious athletes. A. Sample 2: simultaneous increases in HGB and RET (likely ESA stimulation) in a male. B. Samples 3, 6 and 7: "OFF" picture, with high HGB and low RET in a female. Sample 10: normal HGB and increased RET (ESA or blood withdrawal). Conclusions: ABP is a powerful tool for indirect doping detection, based on the recognition of specific, unphysiological changes triggered by blood doping. The effect of factors of heterogeneity, such as sex and altitude, must also be considered. Schumacher YO, et al. Drug Test Anal 2012, 4:846-853. Sottas PE, et al. Clin Chem 2011, 57:969-976.

Recognition judgments and the performance of the recognition heuristic depend on the size of the reference class

In a series of three experiments, participants made inferences about which one of a pair of two objects scored higher on a criterion. The first experiment was designed to contrast the prediction of Probabilistic Mental Model theory (Gigerenzer, Hoffrage, & Kleinbölting, 1991) concerning sampling procedure with the hard-easy effect. The experiment failed to support the theory's prediction that a particular pair of randomly sampled item sets would differ in percentage correct; but the observation that German participants performed practically as well on comparisons between U.S. cities (many of which they did not even recognize) than on comparisons between German cities (about which they knew much more) ultimately led to the formulation of the recognition heuristic. Experiment 2 was a second, this time successful, attempt to unconfound item difficulty and sampling procedure. In Experiment 3, participants' knowledge and recognition of each city was elicited, and how often this could be used to make an inference was manipulated. Choices were consistent with the recognition heuristic in about 80% of the cases when it discriminated and people had no additional knowledge about the recognized city (and in about 90% when they had such knowledge). The frequency with which the heuristic could be used affected the percentage correct, mean confidence, and overconfidence as predicted. The size of the reference class, which was also manipulated, modified these effects in meaningful and theoretically important ways.

How accurate is the current picture of human genetic variation?

Our understanding of the distribution of worldwide human genomic diversity has greatly increased over recent years thanks to the availability of large data sets derived from short tandem repeats (STRs), insertion deletion polymorphisms (indels) and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). A concern, however, is that the current picture of worldwide human genomic diversity may be inaccurate because of biases in the selection process of genetic markers (so-called 'ascertainment bias'). To evaluate this problem, we first compared the distribution of genomic diversity between these three types of genetic markers in the populations from the HGDP-CEPH panel for evidence of bias or incongruities. In a second step, using a very relaxed set of criteria to prevent the intrusion of bias, we developed a new set of unbiased STR markers and compared the results against those from available panels. Contrarily to recent claims, our results show that the STR markers suffer from no discernible bias, and can thus be used as a baseline reference for human genetic diversity and population differentiation. The bias on SNPs is moderate compared to that on the set of indels analysed, which we recommend should be avoided for work describing the distribution of human genetic diversity or making inference on human settlement history.

Modeling the forensic two-trace problem with Bayesian networks

The forensic two-trace problem is a perplexing inference problem introduced by Evett (J Forensic Sci Soc 27:375-381, 1987). Different possible ways of wording the competing pair of propositions (i.e., one proposition advanced by the prosecution and one proposition advanced by the defence) led to different quantifications of the value of the evidence (Meester and Sjerps in Biometrics 59:727-732, 2003). Here, we re-examine this scenario with the aim of clarifying the interrelationships that exist between the different solutions, and in this way, produce a global vision of the problem. We propose to investigate the different expressions for evaluating the value of the evidence by using a graphical approach, i.e. Bayesian networks, to model the rationale behind each of the proposed solutions and the assumptions made on the unknown parameters in this problem.

Seeing the Wood through the Trees: The Current State of Higher Systematics in the Strepsirhini.

Strepsirhines comprise 10 living or recently extinct families, ≥50% of extant primate families. Their phylogenetic relationships have been intensively studied, but common topologies have only recently emerged; e.g. all recent reconstructions link the Lepilemuridae and Cheirogaleidae. The position of the indriids, however, remains uncertain, and molecular studies have placed them as the sister to every clade except Daubentonia, the preferred sister group of morphologists. The node subtending Afro-Asian lorisids has been similarly elusive. We probed these phylogenetic inconsistencies using a test data set including 20 strepsirhine taxa and 2 outgroups represented by 3,543 mtDNA base pairs, and 43 selected morphological characters, subjecting the data to maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference analyses, and reconstructing topology and node ages jointly from the molecular data using relaxed molecular clock analyses. Our permutations yielded compatible but not identical evolutionary histories, and currently popular techniques seem unable to deal adequately with morphological data. We investigated the influence of morphological characters on tree topologies, and examined the effect of taxon sampling in two experiments: (1) we removed the molecular data only for 5 endangered Malagasy taxa to simulate 'extinction leaving a fossil record'; (2) we removed both the sequence and morphological data for these taxa. Topologies were affected more by the inclusion of morphological data only, indicating that palaeontological studies that involve inserting a partial morphological data set into a combined data matrix of extant species should be interpreted with caution. The gap of approximately 10 million years between the daubentoniid divergence and those of the other Malagasy families deserves more study. The apparently contemporaneous divergence of African and non-daubentoniid Malagasy families 40-30 million years ago may be related to regional plume-induced uplift followed by a global period of cooling and drying. © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

A genetic isolation gradient of populations of the Balearic green toad (Bufo balearicus) follows rising eastward fragmentation of the rural landscapes on the island of Menorca.

We present the first approach to the genetic diversity and structure of the Balearic toad (Bufo balearicus Boettger, 1880) for the island of Menorca. Forty-one individ- uals from 21 localities were analyzed for ten microsatellite loci. We used geo-refer- enced individual multilocus genotypes and a model-based clustering method for the inference of the number of populations and of the spatial location of genetic dis- continuities between those populations.¦Only six of the microsatellites analyzed were polymorphic. We revealed a northwest- ern area inhabited by a single population with several well-connected localities and another set of populations in the southeast that includes a few unconnected small units with genetically significant differences among them as well as with the individ- uals from the northwest of the island. The observed fragmentation may be explained by shifts from agricultural to tourism practices that have been taking place on the island of Menorca since the 1960s. The abandonment of rural activities in favor of urbanization and concomitant service areas has mostly affected the southeast of the island and is currently threatening the overall geographic connectivity between the different farming areas of the island that are inhabited by the Balearic toad.

A deep dig-hindsight on Holocene plant composition from ancient environmental DNA

Want a glimpse at past vegetation? Studying pollen and other plant remains, which are preserved for example in lake sediments or mires for thousands of years, allows us to document regional occurrences of plant species over radiocarbon-dated time series. Such vegetation reconstructions derived from optical analyses of fossil samples are inherently incomplete because they only comprise taxa that contribute sufficient amounts of pollen, spores, macrofossil or other evidences. To complement optical analyses for paleoecological inference, molecular markers applied to ancient DNA (aDNA) may help in disclosing information hitherto inaccessible to biologists. Parducci etal. (2013) targeted aDNA from sediment cores of two lakes in the Scandes Mountains with generic primers in a meta-barcoding approach. When compared to palynological records from the same cores, respective taxon lists show remarkable differences in their compositions, but also in quantitative representation and in taxonomic resolution similar to a previous study (JOrgensen etal. 2012). While not free of assumptions that need critical and robust testing, notably the question of possible contamination, this study provides thrilling prospects to improve our knowledge about past vegetation composition, but also other organismic groups, stored as a biological treasure in the ground.

Variations of CYP3A activity induced by antiretroviral treatment in HIV-1 infected patients.

OBJECTIVE: To measure the in vivo variations of CYP3A activity induced by anti-HIV drugs in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)1-positive patients. METHODS: A low oral dose of midazolam (MID) (0.075 mg) was given to the patients and the 30-min total 1-OH midazolam (1-OHMID)/MID ratio was determined. Patients were phenotyped either before the introduction of antiretroviral treatments (control group, 90 patients) or after a variable period of antiretroviral treatment (56 patients). Twenty-one subjects underwent multiple phenotyping tests (before and during the course of the treatment). RESULTS: The median MID ratio was 3.51 in the control group (range 0.20-14.6). It was 5-fold higher in the group with efavirenz (28 patients; median, range: 16.0, 3.81-367; P < 0.0001), 13-fold lower with nelfinavir (18 patients; 0.27, 0.06-36.3; P < 0.0001), 17-fold lower with efavirenz + ritonavir (three patients; 0.21, 0.05-0.47; P = 0.006), 50-fold lower with ritonavir (four patients; 0.07, 0.06-0.17; P = 0.0007), and 7-fold lower with nevirapine + (ritonavir or nelfinavir or grapefruit juice) (three patients; 0.48, 0.03-1.83; P = 0.03). CYP3A activity was lower in the efavirenz + ritonavir group (P = 0.01) and in the ritonavir group (P = 0.04) than in the nelfinavir group, although already strongly inhibited in the latter. CONCLUSION: The low-dose MID phenotyping test was successfully used to measure the in vivo variations of CYP3A activity induced by antiretroviral drugs. Efavirenz strongly induces CYP3A activity, while ritonavir almost completely inhibits it. Nelfinavir strongly decreases CYP3A activity, but to a lesser extent than ritonavir. The inhibition of CYP3A by ritonavir or nelfinavir offsets the inductive effects of efavirenz or nevirapine administered concomitantly. Finally, no induction of CYP3A activity was noticeable after long-term administration of ritonavir at low dosages (200 mg/day b.i.d.) or of nelfinavir at standard dosages (2,500 mg/day b.i.d.).

Statistical learning theory for geospatial data. Case study: Aral sea

In recent years there has been an explosive growth in the development of adaptive and data driven methods. One of the efficient and data-driven approaches is based on statistical learning theory (Vapnik 1998). The theory is based on Structural Risk Minimisation (SRM) principle and has a solid statistical background. When applying SRM we are trying not only to reduce training error ? to fit the available data with a model, but also to reduce the complexity of the model and to reduce generalisation error. Many nonlinear learning procedures recently developed in neural networks and statistics can be understood and interpreted in terms of the structural risk minimisation inductive principle. A recent methodology based on SRM is called Support Vector Machines (SVM). At present SLT is still under intensive development and SVM find new areas of application (www.kernel-machines.org). SVM develop robust and non linear data models with excellent generalisation abilities that is very important both for monitoring and forecasting. SVM are extremely good when input space is high dimensional and training data set i not big enough to develop corresponding nonlinear model. Moreover, SVM use only support vectors to derive decision boundaries. It opens a way to sampling optimization, estimation of noise in data, quantification of data redundancy etc. Presentation of SVM for spatially distributed data is given in (Kanevski and Maignan 2004).

Organisation du travail et santé au siège d'une ONG humanitaire

Les questions de mal-être au travail et de risques psychosociaux sont centrales dans le monde du travail actuel. L'ergonomie nous enseigne qu'une analyse des formes d'organisation du travail est nécessaire pour comprendre les origines des plaintes des travailleurs. Dans cette recherche, nous avons étudié une population spécifique, les employés du siège d'une organisation non gouvernementale humanitaire en Suisse (150 personnes environ). Partant du constat de l'expression de nombreuses plaintes de fatigue et de mal-être au travail par ces employés, nous avons cherché à objectiver ces plaintes et avons étudié les éléments d'organisation susceptibles d'y être liés.Dans le cadre d'une démarche inductive, nous avons utilisé conjointement des méthodes qualitatives (entretiens semi-directifs, observation non participante) et quantitatives (questionnaires) et avons appliqué le principe de triangulation méthodologique pour l'analyse des données.Trois thématiques relatives au mode de fonctionnement de l'organisation ont émergé des analyses : le fonctionnement dans l'urgence en permanence, la professionnalisation de l'organisation et le fort engagement des employés dans leur activité.L'organisation fonctionne selon une logique d'urgence en permanence. La nature de ses interventions, qui sont considérées de la plus haute importance, et la forte valorisation des activités « de terrain » conduisent à l'enfermement de l'activité dans la gestion des tâches urgentes, ce qui ne laisse pas de place à l'anticipation et à la planification. Ensuite, cette organisation a connu une forte croissance au cours des dernières décennies : d'une petite association, elle est devenue une véritable institution. La logique de fonctionnement institutionnelle n'est cependant pas venue remplacer totalement la logique associative, mais toutes deux cohabitent. L'organisation continue à demander à ses employés un engagement associatif et militant total mais applique parallèlement un management de type entrepreneurial, ce qui génère des messages paradoxaux pour les employés. Finalement, le fonctionnement de l'organisation dans son ensemble repose sur l'engagement de toute la chaîne des acteurs. Ceci est clairement intégré et repris par les employés du siège : ils relèvent que ce qu'ils font représente bien plus qu'un travail et qu'il est nécessaire de « tout donner », car les besoins sont immenses et la charge de travail énorme. Cependant, la limite entre engagement et surengagement conduisant à l'épuisement est très facilement franchie.Ces éléments participent à générer un environnement de travail potentiellement pathogène, où il est peu légitime pour l'employé de se préoccuper de sa propre santé, et où la charge de travail et le rythme ne lui laissent pas le temps de mettre en place des stratégies de préservation de sa santé. Ce mode de fonctionnement spécifique véhicule des messages paradoxaux et soumet les employés à des exigences contradictoires.

Microenvironmental reprogramming of thymic epithelial cells to skin multipotent stem cells.

The thymus develops from the third pharyngeal pouch of the anterior gut and provides the necessary environment for thymopoiesis (the process by which thymocytes differentiate into mature T lymphocytes) and the establishment and maintenance of self-tolerance. It contains thymic epithelial cells (TECs) that form a complex three-dimensional network organized in cortical and medullary compartments, the organization of which is notably different from simple or stratified epithelia. TECs have an essential role in the generation of self-tolerant thymocytes through expression of the autoimmune regulator Aire, but the mechanisms involved in the specification and maintenance of TECs remain unclear. Despite the different embryological origins of thymus and skin (endodermal and ectodermal, respectively), some cells of the thymic medulla express stratified-epithelium markers, interpreted as promiscuous gene expression. Here we show that the thymus of the rat contains a population of clonogenic TECs that can be extensively cultured while conserving the capacity to integrate in a thymic epithelial network and to express major histocompatibility complex class II (MHC II) molecules and Aire. These cells can irreversibly adopt the fate of hair follicle multipotent stem cells when exposed to an inductive skin microenvironment; this change in fate is correlated with robust changes in gene expression. Hence, microenvironmental cues are sufficient here to re-direct epithelial cell fate, allowing crossing of primitive germ layer boundaries and an increase in potency.

The Gene Ontology: enhancements for 2011.

The Gene Ontology (GO) (http://www.geneontology.org) is a community bioinformatics resource that represents gene product function through the use of structured, controlled vocabularies. The number of GO annotations of gene products has increased due to curation efforts among GO Consortium (GOC) groups, including focused literature-based annotation and ortholog-based functional inference. The GO ontologies continue to expand and improve as a result of targeted ontology development, including the introduction of computable logical definitions and development of new tools for the streamlined addition of terms to the ontology. The GOC continues to support its user community through the use of e-mail lists, social media and web-based resources.

Schizophrenia connectivity: correlation between cognitive deficits and reduced thalamo-cortical fibers

Introduction: Schizophrenia is associated with multiple neuropsychological dysfunctions, such as disturbances of attention, memory, perceptual functioning, concept formation and executive processes. These cognitive functions are reported to depend on the integrity of the prefrontal and thalamo-prefrontal circuits. Multiple lines of evidence suggest that schizophrenia is related to abnormalities in neural circuitry and impaired structural connectivity. Here, we report a preliminary case-control study that showed a correlation between thalamo-frontal connections and several cognitive functions known to be impaired in schizophrenia. Materials and Methods: We investigated 9 schizophrenic patients (DSM IV criteria, Diagnostic Interview for Genetic Studies) and 9 age and sex matched control subjects. We obtained from each volunteer a DT-MRI dataset (3 T, _ _ 1,000 s/mm2), and a high resolution anatomic T1. The thalamo- frontal tracts are simulated with DTI tractography on these dataset, a method allowing inference of the main neural fiber tracks from Diffusion MRI data. In order to see an eventual correlation with the thalamo-frontal connections, every subject performs a battery of neuropsychological tests including computerized tests of attention (sustained attention, selective attention and reaction time), working memory tests (Plane test and the working memory sub-tests of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale), a executive functioning task (Tower of Hanoï) and a test of visual binding abilities. Results: In a pilot case-control study (patients: n _ 9; controls: n _ 9), we showed that this methodology is appropriate and giving results in the excepted range. Considering the relation of the connectivity density and the neuropsychological data, a correlation between the number of thalamo- frontal fibers and the performance in the Tower of Hanoï was observed in the patients (Pearson correlation, r _ 0.76, p _ 0.05) but not in control subjects. In the most difficult item of the test, the least number of fibers corresponds to the worst performance of the test (fig. 2, number of supplementary movements of the elements necessary to realize the right configuration). It's interesting to note here that in an independent study, we showed that schizophrenia patients (n _ 32) perform in the most difficult item of the Tower of Hanoï (Mann-Whitney, p _ 0.005) significantly worse than control subjects (n _ 29). This has been observed in several others neuropsychological studies. Discussion: This pilot study of schizophrenia patients shows a correlation between the number of thalam-frontal fibers and the performance in the Tower of Hanoï, which is a planning and goal oriented actions task known to be associated with frontal dysfonction. This observation is consistent with the proposed impaired connectivity in schizophrenia. We aim to pursue the study with a larger sample in order to determine if other neuropsychological tests may be associated with the connectivity density.