Less Risk, More Effort : Demand Risk Allocation in Incomplete Contracts

This article investigates the allocation of demand risk within an incomplete contract framework. We consider an incomplete contractual relationship between a public authority and a private provider (i.e. a public-private partnership), in which the latter invests in non-verifiable cost-reducing efforts and the former invests in non-verifiable adaptation efforts to respond to changing consumer demand over time. We show that the party that bears the demand risk has fewer hold-up opportunities and that this leads the other contracting party to make more effort. Thus, in our model, bearing less risk can lead to more effort, which we describe as a new example of âeuro~counter-incentivesâeuro?. We further show that when the benefits of adaptation are important, it is socially preferable to design a contract in which the demand risk remains with the private provider, whereas when the benefits of cost-reducing efforts are important, it is socially preferable to place the demand risk on the public authority. We then apply these results to explain two well-known case studies.

International periodic fever, aphthous stomatitis, pharyngitis, cervical adenitis syndrome cohort: description of distinct phenotypes in 301 patients.

OBJECTIVES: The aims of this study were to describe the clinical features of periodic fever, aphthous stomatitis, pharyngitis and cervical adenitis (PFAPA) and identify distinct phenotypes in a large cohort of patients from different countries. METHODS: We established a web-based multicentre cohort through an international collaboration within the periodic fevers working party of the Pediatric Rheumatology European Society (PReS). The inclusion criterion was a diagnosis of PFAPA given by an experienced paediatric rheumatologist participating in an international working group on periodic fever syndromes. RESULTS: Of the 301 patients included from the 15 centres, 271 had pharyngitis, 236 cervical adenitis, 171 oral aphthosis and 132 with all three clinical features. A total of 228 patients presented with additional symptoms (131 gastrointestinal symptoms, 86 arthralgias and/or myalgias, 36 skin rashes, 8 neurological symptoms). Thirty-one patients had disease onset after 5 years and they reported more additional symptoms. A positive family history for recurrent fever or recurrent tonsillitis was found in 81 patients (26.9%). Genetic testing for monogenic periodic fever syndromes was performed on 111 patients, who reported fewer occurrences of oral aphthosis or additional symptoms. Twenty-four patients reported symptoms (oral aphthosis and malaise) outside the flares. The CRP was >50 mg/l in the majority (131/190) of the patients tested during the fever. CONCLUSION: We describe the largest cohort of PFAPA patients presented so far. We confirm that PFAPA may present with varied clinical manifestations and we show the limitations of the commonly used diagnostic criteria. Based on detailed analysis of this cohort, a consensus definition of PFAPA with better-defined criteria should be proposed.

A two-level analysis of the determinants of direct democratic choices in European, immigration and foreign policy in Switzerland

This article employs a unique data set - covering 25 popular votes on foreign, European and immigration/asylum policy held between 1992 and 2006 in Switzerland - in order to examine the conditional impact of context upon utilitarian, cultural, political and cognitive determinants of individual attitudes toward international openness. Our results reveal clear patterns of cross-level interactions between individual determinants and the project-related context of the vote. Thus, although party cues and political competence have a strong impact on individuals' support for international openness, this impact is substantially mediated by the type of coalition that is operating within the party elite. Similarly, subjective utilitarian and cultural considerations influence the voters' decision in interaction with the content of the proposal submitted to the voters as well as with the framing of the voting campaign.

Leadership at the upper echelons : three essays

"IT'S THE ECONOMY STUPID", BUT CHARISMA MATTERS TOO: A DUAL PROCESS MODEL OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OUTCOMES. ABSTRACT Because charisma is assumed to be an important determinant of effective leadership, the extent to which a presidential nominee is more charismatic than his opponent should be an important determinant of voter choices. We computed a composite measure of the rhetorical richness of acceptances speeches given by U.S. presidential candidates at their national party convention. We added this marker of charisma to Ray C. Fair's presidential vote-share equation (1978; 2009). We theorized that voters decide using psychological attribution (i.e., due to macroeconomics and incumbency) as well as inferential processes (i.e., due to leader charismatic behavior) when voting. Controlling for the macro-level variables and incumbency in the Fair model, our results indicated that difference between nominees' charisma is a significant determinant of electoral success, particularly in close elections. This extended model significantly improves the precision of the Fair model and correctly predicts 23 out of the last 24 U.S. presidential elections. Paper 2: IT CEO LEADERSHIP, CORPORATE SOCIAL AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE. ABSTRACT We investigated whether CEO leadership predicted corporate financial performance (CFP) and corporate social performance (CSP). Using longitudinal data on 258 CEOs from 117 firms across 19 countries and 10 industry sectors, we found that determinants of CEO leadership (i.e., implicit motives) significantly predicted both CFP and CSP. As expected, the most consistent positive predictor was Responsibility Disposition when interacting with n (need for) Power. n Achievement and n Affiliation were generally negatively related or unrelated to outcomes. CSP was positively related to accounting measures of CFP. Our findings suggest that executive leader characteristics have important consequences for corporate level outcomes. Paper 3. PUNISHING THE POWERFUL: ATTRIBUTIONS OF BLAME AND LEADERSHIP ABSTRACT We propose that individuals are more lenient in attributing blame to leaders than to nonleaders. We advance a motivational explanation building on the perspective of punishment and on system justification theory. We conducted two scenario experiments which supported our proposition. In study 1, wrongdoer leader status was negatively related to blame and the perceived seriousness of the wrongdoing. In study 2, controlling for the Big-Five personality factor and individual differences in moral evaluation (i.e., moral foundations), wrongdoer leader status was negatively related with desired severity of punishment, and fair punishments were perceived as more just for non-leaders than for leaders.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a European primary-care physician training in smoking cessation counseling.

BACKGROUND: Physician training in smoking cessation counseling has been shown to be effective as a means to increase quit success. We assessed the cost-effectiveness ratio of a smoking cessation counseling training programme. Its effectiveness was previously demonstrated in a cluster randomized, control trial performed in two Swiss university outpatients clinics, in which residents were randomized to receive training in smoking interventions or a control educational intervention. DESIGN AND METHODS: We used a Markov simulation model for effectiveness analysis. This model incorporates the intervention efficacy, the natural quit rate, and the lifetime probability of relapse after 1-year abstinence. We used previously published results in addition to hospital service and outpatient clinic cost data. The time horizon was 1 year, and we opted for a third-party payer perspective. RESULTS: The incremental cost of the intervention amounted to US$2.58 per consultation by a smoker, translating into a cost per life-year saved of US$25.4 for men and 35.2 for women. One-way sensitivity analyses yielded a range of US$4.0-107.1 in men and US$9.7-148.6 in women. Variations in the quit rate of the control intervention, the length of training effectiveness, and the discount rate yielded moderately large effects on the outcome. Variations in the natural cessation rate, the lifetime probability of relapse, the cost of physician training, the counseling time, the cost per hour of physician time, and the cost of the booklets had little effect on the cost-effectiveness ratio. CONCLUSIONS: Training residents in smoking cessation counseling is a very cost-effective intervention and may be more efficient than currently accepted tobacco control interventions.

E-tools for civic education : experiences from the election campaign in Switzerland 2007

Political participation is often very low in Switzerland especially among students and young citizens. In the run-up to the Swiss parliamentary election in October 2007 several online tools and campaigns were developed with the aim to increase not only the level of information about the political programs of parties and candidates, but also the electoral participation of younger citizens. From a practical point of view this paper will describe the development, marketing efforts and the distribution as well as the use of two of these tools : the so-called "Parteienkompass" (party compass) and the "myVote"-tool - an online voting assistance tool based on an issue-matching system comparing policy preferences between voters and candidates on an individual level. We also havea look at similar tools stemming from Voting Advice Applications (VAA) in other countries in Western Europe. The paper closes with the results of an evaluation and an outlook to further developments and on-going projects in the near future in Switzerland.

Differential role of naïve and memory CD4 T-cell subsets in primary alloresponses.

The T cell response to major histocompatibility complex (MHC) alloantigens occurs via two main pathways. The direct pathway involves the recognition of intact allogeneic MHC:peptide complexes on donor cells and provokes uniquely high frequencies of responsive T cells. The indirect response results from alloantigens being processed like any other protein antigen and presented as peptide by autologous antigen-presenting cells. The frequencies of T cells with indirect allospecificity are orders of magnitude lower and comparable to other peptide-specific responses. In this study, we explored the contributions of naïve and memory CD4(+) T cells to these two pathways. Using an adoptive transfer and skin transplantation model we found that naive and memory CD4(+) T cells, both naturally occurring and induced by sensitization with multiple third-party alloantigens, contributed equally to graft rejection when only the direct pathway was operative. In contrast, the indirect response was predominantly mediated by the naïve subset. Elimination of regulatory CD4(+)CD25(+) T cells enabled memory cells to reject grafts through the indirect pathway, but at a much slower tempo than for naïve cells. These findings have implications for better targeting of immunosuppression to inhibit immediate and later forms of alloimmunity.

The views of rich Europeans are more likely to be reflected by political parties than those of poorer citizens

How does income inequality affect political representation? Jan Rosset, Nathalie Giger and Julian Bernauer examine whether politicians represent the views of poorer and richer citizens equally. They find that in 43 out of the 49 elections included in their analysis, the preferences of low-income citizens are located further away from the policy positions of the closest political party than those with mid-range incomes. This suggests that income inequality may spill-over into political inequalities, although it is less clear whether this effect is likely to get better or worse as a result of the Eurozone crisis.

Typologien und Wandel : Die kantonalen Parteiensysteme im letzten Drittel des 20. Jahrhunderts

Die bisherigen Versuche die kantonalen Parteiensysteme zu typologisieren kommen zu ganz unterschiedlichen Ergebnissen. Der Grund dafür liegt darin, dass sie sich auf nur wenige und unterschiedliche Parteiensystemmerkmale abstützten. Vernachlässigt wird dabei zudem der Aspekt eines allfälligen Wandels der Parteiensysteme. Ziel dieses Artikels ist es, ausgehend von einer Typologisierung, welche möglichst alle wichtigen Eigenheiten der kantonalen Parteiensysteme berücksichtigt, den Wandel der Parteiensysteme zu analysieren und mögliche Entwicklungen aufzuzeigen. Die Ergebnisse weisen darauf hin, dass bei gewissen Systemmerkmalen trotz einer Annäherung in nächster Zeit nicht davon auszugehen ist, dass die kantonalen Parteiensysteme auf das nationale Parteiensystem hin konvergieren.

Il voto ticinese sull'iniziativa 'contro l'immigrazione di massa' del 9 febbraio 2014

Riassunto Il presente studio verte sull'analisi del voto relativo all'iniziativa popolare 'contro l'immigrazione di massa' del 9 febbraio 2014. In particolare, l'analisi si concentra sul voto avvenuto nel Ticino, il cantone svizzero in cui l'iniziativa ha avuto maggiore sostegno. Lo studio si è avvalso di un'inchiesta d'opinione rappresentativa realizzata dall'Osservatorio della vita politica regionale dell'Università di Losanna presso 1.429 cittadini ticinesi nei giorni successivi allo scrutinio. Dopo una contestualizzazione del voto del 9 febbraio rispetto alla storia delle votazioni sui temi di politica estera e migratoria, l'analisi si è concentrata sulla partecipazione al voto. Il ricorso a tre modelli interpretativi (delle risorse, della competenza e della mobilitazione) ha permesso di mostrare come il voto del 9 febbraio sia caratterizzato in particolare modo dal senso del dovere, dall'interesse per la politica e dal legame di partito. L'analisi dell'orientamento di voto evidenzia l'influenza delle dimensioni economiche, politiche, identitarie, e soprattutto, alla stregua di altri voti nel passato recente di questo cantone, una forte tensione tra centro e periferia. Dall'analisi del voto del 9 febbraio emerge un forte timore che vede nel Ticino una 'doppia periferia', verso Berna e in relazione alla vicina Lombardia. Parole chiave: iniziativa popolare, partecipazione, orientamento di voto, centro-periferia. Résumé Cette étude porte sur l'analyse du vote sur l'initiative populaire 'contre l'immigration de masse' du 9 février 2014 et, plus précisément, sur le vote qui s'est déroulé au Tessin, canton suisse dans lequel l'initiative a obtenu le plus large soutien. L'étude a été menée à l'aide d'une enquête d'opinion représentative réalisée par l'Observatoire de la vie politique régionale de l'Université de Lausanne auprès de 1.429 citoyens tessinois dans les jours suivant le scrutin. Après une contextualisation du vote du 9 février par rapport à l'histoire des votations sur les thèmes de la politique étrangère et de l'immigration, l'analyse a porté sur la participation au vote. À ce propos, l'utilisation de trois modèles explicatifs (des ressources, de la compétence et de la mobilisation) a permis de dévoiler que le vote a été caractérisé plus particulièrement par le sens du devoir (habitus du vote), par l'intérêt pour la politique et par le lien avec un parti. L'analyse de l'orientation du vote montre l'influence des aspects économiques, politiques et identitaire ainsi que, à l'instar d'autres votations récemment passées dans le canton italophone, des raisons qui mettent en évidence une vision contrastée du Tessin et notamment le risque de devenir une 'double périphérie' par rapport à Berne et à la Lombardie. Mots-clés: initiative populaire, participation, choix du vote, centre-périphérie. Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Studie analysiert das Abstimmungsverhalten anlässlich der eidgenössischen Volksinitiative 'Gegen Masseneinwanderung' vom 9. Februar 2014. Die Analyse beschränkt sich auf die Abstimmung im Kanton Tessin, wo die Initiative am stärksten unterstützt wurde. Die Studie wurde vom Observatorium des regionalen politischen Lebens der Universität Lausanne durchgeführt und basiert auf einer repräsentativen Umfrage, bei welcher 1429 Bürger des Kantons Tessin in den Tagen nach der Abstimmung teilnahmen. Zunächst wird die Abstimmung vom 9. Februar in Bezug auf die Geschichte verschiedener anderer Abstimmungen zum Thema Aussen- und Immigrationspolitik kontextualisiert. Die Analyse analysiert dann als erstes die Wahlbeteiligung: Der Gebrauch von drei Erklärungsmodellen (Ressourcen, Kompetenz und Mobilisierung) zeigt auf, dass der Entscheid, an der Abstimmung vom 9. Februar überhaupt teilzunehmen, vor allem von Pflichtbewusstsein, politischem Interesse und Parteibindung geprägt war. Das Abstimmungsverhalten selber war dann von ökonomischen und politischen Faktoren, von der eigenen Identität sowie insbesondere - und wie auch schon andere Abstimmungen in der jüngsten Vergangenheit des italienisch-sprechenden Kantons -von einer grossen Angst geprägt, dass das Tessin eine 'doppelte Peripherie' zwischen Bern und der Lombardei werden könnte. Stichwörter: Volksinitiative, Teilnahme, Abstimmungsverhalten, Zentrum-Peripherie Abstract This study focuses on the analysis of the federal vote on the popular initiative 'against mass immigration' of 9 February 2014. More precisely, the analysis focuses on the vote that took place in Ticino, the Swiss canton in which the popular initiative has received the widest support. The study was carried out by the Research Observatory for Regional Politics at the University of Lausanne using a representative survey among 1.429 citizens of Ticino during the days following the vote. After a contextualization of the vote of 9 February with respect to the history of referenda about foreign policy and immigration issues, the analysis first discusses voter turnout. In this regard, the use of three explanatory models (resources, expertise and mobilisation) reveals that participation in the vote of 9 February was especially characterized by one's sense of duty, political interest, and links with a political party. The decision how to vote was then influenced by economic, political and identity factors as well as - like other votes in the recent past in the Italian-speaking canton - the particular fear that Ticino would become a 'double periphery' vis-à-vis both Berne and Lombardy. Keywords: popular initiative, participation, vote, centre-periphery.

Conformity, upstream reciprocity and social diversity: secondary mechanisms for the evolution of cooperation

Cooperation is ubiquitous in nature: genes cooperate in genomes, cells in muti- cellular organims, and individuals in societies. In humans, division of labor and trade are key elements of most known societies, where social life is regulated by- moral systems specifying rights and duties often enforced by third party punish¬ment. Over the last decades, several primary mechanisms, such as kin selection, direct and indirect reciprocity, have been advanced to explain the evolution of cooperation from a naturalistic approach. In this thesis, I focus on the study of three secondary mechanisms which, although insufficient to allow for the evo¬lution of cooperation, have been hypothesized to further promote it when they are linked to proper primary mechanisms: conformity (the tendency to imitate common behaviors), upstream reciprocity (the tendency to help somebody once help has been received from somebody else) and social diversity (heterogeneous social contexts). I make use of mathematical and computational models in the formal framework of evolutionary game theory in order to investigate the theoret¬ical conditions under which conformity, upstream reciprocity and social diversity are able to raise the levels of cooperation attained in evolving populations. - La coopération est ubiquitaire dans la nature: les gènes coopèrent dans les génomes, les cellules dans les organismes muticellulaires, et les organismes dans les sociétés. Chez les humains, la division du travail et le commerce sont des éléments centraux de la plupart des sociétés connues, où la vie sociale est régie par des systèmes moraux établissant des droits et des devoirs, souvent renforcés par la punition. Au cours des dernières décennies, plusieurs mécanismes pri¬maires, tels que la sélection de parentèle et les réciprocités directe et indirecte, ont été avancés pour expliquer l'évolution de la coopération d'un point de vue nat¬uraliste. Dans cette thèse, nous nous concentrons sur l'étude de trois mécanismes secondaires qui, bien qu'insuffisants pour permettre l'évolution de la coopération, sont capables de la promouvoir davantage s'ils sont liés aux mécanismes primaires appropriés: la conformité (tendance à imiter des comportements en commun), la 'réciprocité en amont' (tendance à aider quelqu'un après avoir reçu l'aide de quelqu'un d'autre) et la diversité sociale (contextes sociaux hétérogènes). Nous faisons usage de modèles mathématiques et informatiques dans le cadre formel de la théorie des jeux évolutionnaires afin d'examiner les conditions théoriques dans lesquelles la conformité, la 'réciprocité en amont' et la diversité sociale sont capables d'élever le niveau de coopération des populations en évolution.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi mediate below-ground plant-herbivore interactions: a phylogenetic study

Ecological interactions are complex networks, but have typically been studied in a pairwise fashion. Examining how third-party species can modify the outcome of pairwise interactions may allow us to better predict their outcomes in realistic systems. For instance, arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) can affect plant interactions with other organisms, including below-ground herbivores, but the mechanisms underlying these effects remain unclear. Here, we use a comparative, phylogenetically controlled approach to test the relative importance of mycorrhizal colonization and plant chemical defences (cardenolides) in predicting plant survival and the abundance of a generalist below-ground herbivore across 14 species of milkweeds (Asclepias spp.). Plants were inoculated with a mixture of four generalist AMF species or left uninoculated. After 1month, larvae of Bradysia sp. (Diptera: Sciaridae), a generalist below-ground herbivore, colonized plant roots. We performed phylogenetically controlled analyses to assess the influence of AMF colonization and toxic cardenolides on plant growth, mortality and infestation by fungus gnats. Overall, plants inoculated with AMF exhibited greater survival than did uninoculated plants. Additionally, surviving inoculated plants had lower numbers of larvae in their roots and fewer non-AM fungi than surviving uninoculated plants. In phylogenetic controlled regressions, gnat density in roots was better predicted by the extent of root colonized by AMF than by root cardenolide concentration. Taken as a whole, AMF modify the effect of below-ground herbivores on plants in a species-specific manner, independent of changes in chemical defence. This study adds to the growing body of literature demonstrating that mycorrhizal fungi may improve plant fitness by conferring protection against antagonists, rather than growth benefits. In addition, we advocate using comparative analyses to disentangle the roles of shared history and ecology in shaping trait expression and to better predict the outcomes of complex multitrophic interactions.

Ketoacidosis and adrenocortical insufficiency.

We herein report an autopsy case involving a 27-year-old Caucasian woman suffering from chronic adrenocortical insufficiency with a background of a polyendocrine disorder. Postmortem biochemistry revealed pathologically decreased aldosterone, cortisol, and dehydroepiandrosterone levels in postmortem serum from femoral blood as well as decreased cortisol and 17-hydroxycorticosteroid in urine. Decreased vitreous sodium and increased 3-beta-hydroxybutyrate and C-reactive protein concentrations were observed. The cause of death was determined to be acute adrenocortical insufficiency. Fasting ketoacidosis was postulated to have precipitated the Addisonian crisis. Traumatic causes of death and third-party involvement were excluded. The case highlights the importance of systematically performing exhaustive postmortem biochemical investigations to formulate appropriate hypothesis regarding the pathophysiological mechanisms involved in the death process.