Extremal properties of certain risk models

Cette thèse s'intéresse à étudier les propriétés extrémales de certains modèles de risque d'intérêt dans diverses applications de l'assurance, de la finance et des statistiques. Cette thèse se développe selon deux axes principaux, à savoir: Dans la première partie, nous nous concentrons sur deux modèles de risques univariés, c'est-à- dire, un modèle de risque de déflation et un modèle de risque de réassurance. Nous étudions le développement des queues de distribution sous certaines conditions des risques commun¬s. Les principaux résultats sont ainsi illustrés par des exemples typiques et des simulations numériques. Enfin, les résultats sont appliqués aux domaines des assurances, par exemple, les approximations de Value-at-Risk, d'espérance conditionnelle unilatérale etc. La deuxième partie de cette thèse est consacrée à trois modèles à deux variables: Le premier modèle concerne la censure à deux variables des événements extrême. Pour ce modèle, nous proposons tout d'abord une classe d'estimateurs pour les coefficients de dépendance et la probabilité des queues de distributions. Ces estimateurs sont flexibles en raison d'un paramètre de réglage. Leurs distributions asymptotiques sont obtenues sous certaines condi¬tions lentes bivariées de second ordre. Ensuite, nous donnons quelques exemples et présentons une petite étude de simulations de Monte Carlo, suivie par une application sur un ensemble de données réelles d'assurance. L'objectif de notre deuxième modèle de risque à deux variables est l'étude de coefficients de dépendance des queues de distributions obliques et asymétriques à deux variables. Ces distri¬butions obliques et asymétriques sont largement utiles dans les applications statistiques. Elles sont générées principalement par le mélange moyenne-variance de lois normales et le mélange de lois normales asymétriques d'échelles, qui distinguent la structure de dépendance de queue comme indiqué par nos principaux résultats. Le troisième modèle de risque à deux variables concerne le rapprochement des maxima de séries triangulaires elliptiques obliques. Les résultats théoriques sont fondés sur certaines hypothèses concernant le périmètre aléatoire sous-jacent des queues de distributions. -- This thesis aims to investigate the extremal properties of certain risk models of interest in vari¬ous applications from insurance, finance and statistics. This thesis develops along two principal lines, namely: In the first part, we focus on two univariate risk models, i.e., deflated risk and reinsurance risk models. Therein we investigate their tail expansions under certain tail conditions of the common risks. Our main results are illustrated by some typical examples and numerical simu¬lations as well. Finally, the findings are formulated into some applications in insurance fields, for instance, the approximations of Value-at-Risk, conditional tail expectations etc. The second part of this thesis is devoted to the following three bivariate models: The first model is concerned with bivariate censoring of extreme events. For this model, we first propose a class of estimators for both tail dependence coefficient and tail probability. These estimators are flexible due to a tuning parameter and their asymptotic distributions are obtained under some second order bivariate slowly varying conditions of the model. Then, we give some examples and present a small Monte Carlo simulation study followed by an application on a real-data set from insurance. The objective of our second bivariate risk model is the investigation of tail dependence coefficient of bivariate skew slash distributions. Such skew slash distributions are extensively useful in statistical applications and they are generated mainly by normal mean-variance mixture and scaled skew-normal mixture, which distinguish the tail dependence structure as shown by our principle results. The third bivariate risk model is concerned with the approximation of the component-wise maxima of skew elliptical triangular arrays. The theoretical results are based on certain tail assumptions on the underlying random radius.

Development and experimental validation of a finite element model of total ankle replacement.

Total ankle replacement remains a less satisfactory solution compared to other joint replacements. The goal of this study was to develop and validate a finite element model of total ankle replacement, for future testing of hypotheses related to clinical issues. To validate the finite element model, an experimental setup was specifically developed and applied on 8 cadaveric tibias. A non-cemented press fit tibial component of a mobile bearing prosthesis was inserted into the tibias. Two extreme anterior and posterior positions of the mobile bearing insert were considered, as well as a centered one. An axial force of 2kN was applied for each insert position. Strains were measured on the bone surface using digital image correlation. Tibias were CT scanned before implantation, after implantation, and after mechanical tests and removal of the prosthesis. The finite element model replicated the experimental setup. The first CT was used to build the geometry and evaluate the mechanical properties of the tibias. The second CT was used to set the implant position. The third CT was used to assess the bone-implant interface conditions. The coefficient of determination (R-squared) between the measured and predicted strains was 0.91. Predicted bone strains were maximal around the implant keel, especially at the anterior and posterior ends. The finite element model presented here is validated for future tests using more physiological loading conditions.

Catastrophic medical expenditure risk

Medical expenditure risk can pose a major threat to living standards. We derive decomposable measures of catastrophic medical expenditure risk from reference-dependent utility with loss aversion. We propose a quantile regression based method of estimating risk exposure from cross-section data containing information on the means of financing health payments. We estimate medical expenditure risk in seven Asian countries and find it is highest in Laos and China, and is lowest in Malaysia. Exposure to risk is generally higher for households that have less recourse to self-insurance, lower incomes, wealth and education, and suffer from chronic illness.

Interplay between insulin signaling, juvenile hormone, and vitellogenin regulates maternal effects on polyphenism in ants.

Polyphenism is the phenomenon in which alternative phenotypes are produced by a single genotype in response to environmental cues. An extreme case is found in social insects, in which reproductive queens and sterile workers that greatly differ in morphology and behavior can arise from a single genotype. Experimental evidence for maternal effects on caste determination, the differential larval development toward the queen or worker caste, was recently documented in Pogonomyrmex seed harvester ants, in which only colonies with a hibernated queen produce new queens. However, the proximate mechanisms behind these intergenerational effects have remained elusive. We used a combination of artificial hibernation, hormonal treatments, gene expression analyses, hormone measurements, and vitellogenin quantification to investigate how the combined effect of environmental cues and hormonal signaling affects the process of caste determination in Pogonomyrmex rugosus. The results show that the interplay between insulin signaling, juvenile hormone, and vitellogenin regulates maternal effects on the production of alternative phenotypes and set vitellogenin as a likely key player in the intergenerational transmission of information. This study reveals how hibernation triggers the production of new queens in Pogonomyrmex ant colonies. More generally, it provides important information on maternal effects by showing how environmental cues experienced by one generation can translate into phenotypic variation in the next generation.

Predicting spatial patterns of plant biodiversity : from species to communities

Understanding the distribution and composition of species assemblages and being able to predict them in space and time are highly important tasks io investigate the fate of biodiversity in the current global changes context. Species distribution models are tools that have proven useful to predict the potential distribution of species by relating their occurrences to environmental variables. Species assemblages can then be predicted by combining the prediction of individual species models. In the first part of my thesis, I tested the importance of new environmental predictors to improve species distribution prediction. I showed that edaphic variables, above all soil pH and nitrogen content could be important in species distribution models. In a second chapter, I tested the influence of different resolution of predictors on the predictive ability of species distribution models. I showed that fine resolution predictors could ameliorate the models for some species by giving a better estimation of the micro-topographic condition that species tolerate, but that fine resolution predictors for climatic factors still need to be ameliorated. The second goal of my thesis was to test the ability of empirical models to predict species assemblages' characteristics such as species richness or functional attributes. I showed that species richness could be modelled efficiently and that the resulting prediction gave a more realistic estimate of the number of species than when obtaining it by stacking outputs of single species distribution models. Regarding the prediction of functional characteristics (plant height, leaf surface, seed mass) of plant assemblages, mean and extreme values of functional traits were better predictable than indices reflecting the diversity of traits in the community. This approach proved interesting to understand which environmental conditions influence particular aspects of the vegetation functioning. It could also be useful to predict climate change impacts on the vegetation. In the last part of my thesis, I studied the capacity of stacked species distribution models to predict the plant assemblages. I showed that this method tended to over-predict the number of species and that the composition of the community was not predicted exactly either. Finally, I combined the results of macro- ecological models obtained in the preceding chapters with stacked species distribution models and showed that this approach reduced significantly the number of species predicted and that the prediction of the composition is also ameliorated in some cases. These results showed that this method is promising. It needs now to be tested on further data sets. - Comprendre la manière dont les plantes se répartissent dans l'environnement et s'organisent en communauté est une question primordiale dans le contexte actuel de changements globaux. Cette connaissance peut nous aider à sauvegarder la diversité des espèces et les écosystèmes. Des méthodes statistiques nous permettent de prédire la distribution des espèces de plantes dans l'espace géographique et dans le temps. Ces modèles de distribution d'espèces, relient les occurrences d'une espèce avec des variables environnementales pour décrire sa distribution potentielle. Cette méthode a fait ses preuves pour ce qui est de la prédiction d'espèces individuelles. Plus récemment plusieurs tentatives de cumul de modèles d'espèces individuelles ont été réalisées afin de prédire la composition des communautés végétales. Le premier objectif de mon travail est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution en testant l'importance de nouvelles variables prédictives. Parmi différentes variables édaphiques, le pH et la teneur en azote du sol se sont avérés des facteurs non négligeables pour prédire la distribution des plantes. Je démontre aussi dans un second chapitre que les prédicteurs environnementaux à fine résolution permettent de refléter les conditions micro-topographiques subies par les plantes mais qu'ils doivent encore être améliorés avant de pouvoir être employés de manière efficace dans les modèles. Le deuxième objectif de ce travail consistait à étudier le développement de modèles prédictifs pour des attributs des communautés végétales tels que, par exemple, la richesse en espèces rencontrée à chaque point. Je démontre qu'il est possible de prédire par ce biais des valeurs de richesse spécifiques plus réalistes qu'en sommant les prédictions obtenues précédemment pour des espèces individuelles. J'ai également prédit dans l'espace et dans le temps des caractéristiques de la végétation telles que sa hauteur moyenne, minimale et maximale. Cette approche peut être utile pour comprendre quels facteurs environnementaux promeuvent différents types de végétation ainsi que pour évaluer les changements à attendre au niveau de la végétation dans le futur sous différents régimes de changements climatiques. Dans une troisième partie de ma thèse, j'ai exploré la possibilité de prédire les assemblages de plantes premièrement en cumulant les prédictions obtenues à partir de modèles individuels pour chaque espèce. Cette méthode a le défaut de prédire trop d'espèces par rapport à ce qui est observé en réalité. J'ai finalement employé le modèle de richesse en espèce développé précédemment pour contraindre les résultats du modèle d'assemblage de plantes. Cela a permis l'amélioration des modèles en réduisant la sur-prédiction et en améliorant la prédiction de la composition en espèces. Cette méthode semble prometteuse mais de nouveaux tests sont nécessaires pour bien évaluer ses capacités.

Genetic clusters and sex-biased gene flow in a unicolonial Formica ant.

BACKGROUND: Animal societies are diverse, ranging from small family-based groups to extraordinarily large social networks in which many unrelated individuals interact. At the extreme of this continuum, some ant species form unicolonial populations in which workers and queens can move among multiple interconnected nests without eliciting aggression. Although unicoloniality has been mostly studied in invasive ants, it also occurs in some native non-invasive species. Unicoloniality is commonly associated with very high queen number, which may result in levels of relatedness among nestmates being so low as to raise the question of the maintenance of altruism by kin selection in such systems. However, the actual relatedness among cooperating individuals critically depends on effective dispersal and the ensuing pattern of genetic structuring. In order to better understand the evolution of unicoloniality in native non-invasive ants, we investigated the fine-scale population genetic structure and gene flow in three unicolonial populations of the wood ant F. paralugubris. RESULTS: The analysis of geo-referenced microsatellite genotypes and mitochondrial haplotypes revealed the presence of cryptic clusters of genetically-differentiated nests in the three populations of F. paralugubris. Because of this spatial genetic heterogeneity, members of the same clusters were moderately but significantly related. The comparison of nuclear (microsatellite) and mitochondrial differentiation indicated that effective gene flow was male-biased in all populations. CONCLUSION: The three unicolonial populations exhibited male-biased and mostly local gene flow. The high number of queens per nest, exchanges among neighbouring nests and restricted long-distance gene flow resulted in large clusters of genetically similar nests. The positive relatedness among clustermates suggests that kin selection may still contribute to the maintenance of altruism in unicolonial populations if competition occurs among clusters.

Blood pressure loci identified with a gene-centric array.

Raised blood pressure (BP) is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Previous studies have identified 47 distinct genetic variants robustly associated with BP, but collectively these explain only a few percent of the heritability for BP phenotypes. To find additional BP loci, we used a bespoke gene-centric array to genotype an independent discovery sample of 25,118 individuals that combined hypertensive case-control and general population samples. We followed up four SNPs associated with BP at our p < 8.56 × 10(-7) study-specific significance threshold and six suggestively associated SNPs in a further 59,349 individuals. We identified and replicated a SNP at LSP1/TNNT3, a SNP at MTHFR-NPPB independent (r(2) = 0.33) of previous reports, and replicated SNPs at AGT and ATP2B1 reported previously. An analysis of combined discovery and follow-up data identified SNPs significantly associated with BP at p < 8.56 × 10(-7) at four further loci (NPR3, HFE, NOS3, and SOX6). The high number of discoveries made with modest genotyping effort can be attributed to using a large-scale yet targeted genotyping array and to the development of a weighting scheme that maximized power when meta-analyzing results from samples ascertained with extreme phenotypes, in combination with results from nonascertained or population samples. Chromatin immunoprecipitation and transcript expression data highlight potential gene regulatory mechanisms at the MTHFR and NOS3 loci. These results provide candidates for further study to help dissect mechanisms affecting BP and highlight the utility of studying SNPs and samples that are independent of those studied previously even when the sample size is smaller than that in previous studies.

Music performance anxiety among full-time music students

Introduction Music performance anxiety (MPA, often referred to as "stage fright") is one of the leading severe medical problems among musicians. For about 15-25% of musicians MPA is a serious problem. Particularly high levels of MPA are observed among music students. Musical performance can induce negative emotions, including anxiety, which in some individuals can approach extreme levels of terror and take the form of panic attack, impair the quality of the performance, lead to avoidance of performance situations, and consequently have debilitating effects on the career. Coping efforts used by musicians in their attempts to manage MPA, such as sedatives, alcohol, and β-blockers can have deleterious health side-effects. Music ranks high in the cultural and economic life of Switzerland. In ten university music schools, students from all around the world are educated to become professional musicians. Despite the importance of musical education in Switzerland, data concerning the phenomenon of MPA are largely lacking. Goal and Methods The main goal of this research was to survey the occurrence, experience, and management of MPA among full-time music students in French Swiss conservatories. A questionnaire was developed based on the literature and interviews with music students and teachers and distributed to all the students of the conservatories of Fribourg, Geneva, Lausanne, and Neuchâtel in the spring 2007. 194 students (61% women) returned the questionnaire. Results The size of the problem: MPA is a major problem for 1/3 of the students (ranks 3 and 4). The consequences of MPA: 22% and 35% of the students think that they have failed exams and auditions, respectively, because of MPA. Further, 25% of the students have already avoided performing and 11% have interrupted public performances because of MPA. Coping with MPA: 90% of the students have never used alcohol prior to performing, whereas 97% and 81%, respectively, have never used recreation drugs and medication. The majority of students use relaxation exercises, respiratory exercises, and meditation techniques to prepare themselves. About ¾ of the students think that the use of alcohol and recreational drugs to manage MPA is never justified. 53% of the students think that the use of medication is justified on some occasions. Need for information and support: 66% of the students would like to receive more support and help to cope with music performance situations. This support should mainly come from their teachers and specialists. 53% of the students know nothing or little about possible means for the management of MPA. About 50% consider themselves not at all or little informed about the possible risks associated with the consumption of alcohol, recreational drugs, and medication for the management of performance situations. 89% would like to know more about MPA and 94% think that this topic should be discussed much more in their musical education at the conservatory. Conclusions The results of this survey indicate that MPA is a major problem for 1/3 of the students with serious consequences on their career. There is a huge need for more information and support on how to manage the stress due to performance situations. The use of alcohol, recreational drugs, and medication is modest but the students are poorly informed about possible side-effects of these coping strategies. It seems clear that more should be done in the French Swiss conservatories about music performance anxiety to inform, educate, and prepare the students for their future professional career.

Relationship of mating systems and metabolic rate with cycle length of spermatogenesis and sperm production rate in shrews

SUMMARY : The shrews are among the most ancient of living eutherian mammals. They represent an interesting comparative model because of their extreme divergent species. The two shrew subfamilies, Soricinae and Crocidurinae are characterized by fundamental differences concerning their metabolic rates, litter size, period of gestation and different mating pattern. In this study we established and compared the sperm characteristics in four species of different genera of shrews (Sorex araneus, Neomys fodiens, Crocidura russula and Suncus murinus) in the context of the sperm competition hypothesis. The sperm competition concerns the competition between ejaculates of different males for fertilization of ova of a female within a single estrus period. As expected, a greater relative testis size (indicating the importance of polyandry) was associated with a higher number of cauda epididymal spermatozoa, higher level of circulating testosterone and a higher percentage of progressive sperm motility. In addition, we investigated if the basal metabolic rate (BMR) and relative testis size (RTS) may be correlated with the cycle length of spermatogenesis. In this purpose, we determined and compared the cycle length of spermatogenesis in six species of shrews belonging to two subfamilies: Soiricinae (Sorex araneus, Sorex coronatus, Sorex minutus, Neomys fodiens) and Crocidurinae (Crocidura russula, Sunctes murinus). Our results indicate that sperm competition and metabolic rate may act independently or together reducing cycle length of spermatogenesis and thus increase sperm production. We finally investigated this correlation across 32 mammalian species. After testing the data for phylogenetic independence, our results showed that BMR explained only 21 % of the variation, while the RTS explained 44% of the variation of the cycle length of spermatogenesis. The level of the sperm competition, indicated by RTS, is thus to our knowledge the most important factor influencing the speed of spermatogenesis in mammals. RESUME : Les musaraignes sont parmi les plus anciens mammifères vivants. Grâce à leurs extrêmes divergences, ils sont souvent utilisés comme modèles dans des études comparatives. Les deux sous-familles Soricinae et Crocidurinae sont caractérisées par des différences fondamentales, notamment en termes d'intensité du métabolisme, des stratégies de reproduction et du comportement social. Dans la première partie de cette étude, nous avons établi et comparé certaines "caractéristiques des spermatozoïdes chez quatre espèces de musaraignes appartenant à des genres différents (Sorex araneus, Neomys fodiens, Crocidura russula et Suncus murinus). Les résultats ont été interprétés dans le contexte de la théorie de la compétition spermatique, c'est-à-dire la compétition entre le sperme de deux ou plusieurs mâles pour féconder un maximum d'ovules de la même femelle. Cette compétition spermatique peut amener à certaines adaptations biologiques afin de produire plus de sperme. Comme attendu, une grande taille relative des testicules est associée à un nombre élevé de spermatozoïdes, dont la majorité présente une mobilité progressive. Un taux élévé de testostérone a également été observé. De plus, nous avons étudié l'influence du métabolisme basal ainsi que l'intensité de la compétition spermatique sur la durée du cycle de la spermatogenèse. Dans ce but, nous avons déterminé et comparé les durées de la spermatogenèse chez six espèces de musaraignes appartenant à deux sous-familles : Soricinae (Sorex araneus, Sorex coronatus, Sorex minutus, Neomys fodiens) et Crocidurinae (Crocidura russula, Suncus murinus). Les résultats obtenus indiquent que ces deux facteurs (l'intensité du métabolisme basal et de la compétition spermatique) agissent d'une manière dépendante ou indépendante dans le même sens. La conséquence de ces actions est une diminution de la durée de la spermatogenèse entraînant une augmentation de la production de spermatozoïdes. Nous avons finalement étudié ce phénomène dans l'ensemble des mammifères. Après avoir testé l'indépendance phylogénétique, nos résultats montrent que l'intensité de la compétition spermatique indiquée par le RTS est mieux corrélée avec la régulation de la durée de la spermatogenèse qu'avec l'intensité du métabolisme.

Blood pressure loci identified with a gene-centric array.

Raised blood pressure (BP) is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Previous studies have identified 47 distinct genetic variants robustly associated with BP, but collectively these explain only a few percent of the heritability for BP phenotypes. To find additional BP loci, we used a bespoke gene-centric array to genotype an independent discovery sample of 25,118 individuals that combined hypertensive case-control and general population samples. We followed up four SNPs associated with BP at our p < 8.56 × 10(-7) study-specific significance threshold and six suggestively associated SNPs in a further 59,349 individuals. We identified and replicated a SNP at LSP1/TNNT3, a SNP at MTHFR-NPPB independent (r(2) = 0.33) of previous reports, and replicated SNPs at AGT and ATP2B1 reported previously. An analysis of combined discovery and follow-up data identified SNPs significantly associated with BP at p < 8.56 × 10(-7) at four further loci (NPR3, HFE, NOS3, and SOX6). The high number of discoveries made with modest genotyping effort can be attributed to using a large-scale yet targeted genotyping array and to the development of a weighting scheme that maximized power when meta-analyzing results from samples ascertained with extreme phenotypes, in combination with results from nonascertained or population samples. Chromatin immunoprecipitation and transcript expression data highlight potential gene regulatory mechanisms at the MTHFR and NOS3 loci. These results provide candidates for further study to help dissect mechanisms affecting BP and highlight the utility of studying SNPs and samples that are independent of those studied previously even when the sample size is smaller than that in previous studies.

Within-population polymorphism of sex-determination systems in the common frog (Rana temporaria).

In sharp contrast with birds and mammals, the sex chromosomes of ectothermic vertebrates are often undifferentiated, for reasons that remain debated. A linkage map was recently published for Rana temporaria (Linnaeus, 1758) from Fennoscandia (Eastern European lineage), with a proposed sex-determining role for linkage group 2 (LG2). We analysed linkage patterns in lowland and highland populations from Switzerland (Western European lineage), with special focus on LG2. Sibship analyses showed large differences from the Fennoscandian map in terms of recombination rates and loci order, pointing to large-scale inversions or translocations. All linkage groups displayed extreme heterochiasmy (total map length was 12.2 cM in males, versus 869.8 cM in females). Sex determination was polymorphic within populations: a majority of families (with equal sex ratios) showed a strong correlation between offspring phenotypic sex and LG2 paternal haplotypes, whereas other families (some of which with female-biased sex ratios) did not show any correlation. The factors determining sex in the latter could not be identified. This coexistence of several sex-determination systems should induce frequent recombination of X and Y haplotypes, even in the absence of male recombination. Accordingly, we found no sex differences in allelic frequencies on LG2 markers among wild-caught male and female adults, except in one high-altitude population, where nonrecombinant Y haplotypes suggest sex to be entirely determined by LG2. Multifactorial sex determination certainly contributes to the lack of sex-chromosome differentiation in amphibians.

Quantifying ChIP-seq data: a spiking method providing an internal reference for sample-to-sample normalization.

Chromatin immunoprecipitation followed by deep sequencing (ChIP-seq) experiments are widely used to determine, within entire genomes, the occupancy sites of any protein of interest, including, for example, transcription factors, RNA polymerases, or histones with or without various modifications. In addition to allowing the determination of occupancy sites within one cell type and under one condition, this method allows, in principle, the establishment and comparison of occupancy maps in various cell types, tissues, and conditions. Such comparisons require, however, that samples be normalized. Widely used normalization methods that include a quantile normalization step perform well when factor occupancy varies at a subset of sites, but may miss uniform genome-wide increases or decreases in site occupancy. We describe a spike adjustment procedure (SAP) that, unlike commonly used normalization methods intervening at the analysis stage, entails an experimental step prior to immunoprecipitation. A constant, low amount from a single batch of chromatin of a foreign genome is added to the experimental chromatin. This "spike" chromatin then serves as an internal control to which the experimental signals can be adjusted. We show that the method improves similarity between replicates and reveals biological differences including global and largely uniform changes.

Canakinumab relieves symptoms of acute flares and improves health-related quality of life in patients with difficult-to-treat Gouty Arthritis by suppressing inflammation: results of a randomized, dose-ranging study.

INTRODUCTION: We report the impact of canakinumab, a fully human anti-interleukin-1β monoclonal antibody, on inflammation and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients with difficult-to-treat Gouty Arthritis. METHODS: In this eight-week, single-blind, double-dummy, dose-ranging study, patients with acute Gouty Arthritis flares who were unresponsive or intolerant to--or had contraindications for--non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and/or colchicine were randomized to receive a single subcutaneous dose of canakinumab (10, 25, 50, 90, or 150 mg) (N = 143) or an intramuscular dose of triamcinolone acetonide 40 mg (N = 57). Patients assessed pain using a Likert scale, physicians assessed clinical signs of joint inflammation, and HRQoL was measured using the 36-item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36) (acute version). RESULTS: At baseline, 98% of patients were suffering from moderate-to-extreme pain. The percentage of patients with no or mild pain was numerically greater in most canakinumab groups compared with triamcinolone acetonide from 24 to 72 hours post-dose; the difference was statistically significant for canakinumab 150 mg at these time points (P < 0.05). Treatment with canakinumab 150 mg was associated with statistically significant lower Likert scores for tenderness (odds ratio (OR), 3.2; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.27 to 7.89; P = 0.014) and swelling (OR, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.09 to 6.50, P = 0.032) at 72 hours compared with triamcinolone acetonide. Median C-reactive protein and serum amyloid A levels were normalized by seven days post-dose in most canakinumab groups, but remained elevated in the triamcinolone acetonide group. Improvements in physical health were observed at seven days post-dose in all treatment groups; increases in scores were highest for canakinumab 150 mg. In this group, the mean SF-36 physical component summary score increased by 12.0 points from baseline to 48.3 at seven days post-dose. SF-36 scores for physical functioning and bodily pain for the canakinumab 150 mg group approached those for the US general population by seven days post-dose and reached norm values by eight weeks post-dose. CONCLUSIONS: Canakinumab 150 mg provided significantly greater and more rapid reduction in pain and signs and symptoms of inflammation compared with triamcinolone acetonide 40 mg. Improvements in HRQoL were seen in both treatment groups with a faster onset with canakinumab 150 mg compared with triamcinolone acetonide 40 mg. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov: NCT00798369.

Space for thought: Representation of body boundaries and intellectual efficiency in children

Aim: The psychoanalytic theories of Bion, Anzieu, Berger and Gibello postulate that the development of thinking depends upon the formation of a psychic space. This thinking space has its origin in the body and in our interpersonal relations. This study aims to validate this psychodynamic hypothesis. Method: A group of 8- to 14-year-old children participated in this research. The presence of a thinking space was operationalized by the "barrier" and "penetration" scores on the Rorschach's Fisher and Cleveland scales and intellectual efficiency was measured using a short version of the WISC-IV. Results: Results show that extreme scores on the "barrier" and "penetration" variables predict a lower intellectual level than average scores on the same variables. Conclusion: The development of thinking and personality are undoubtedly linked and the "barrier" and "penetration" variables are useful measures when evaluating the development of a space for thought.

Phenotypic novelty in experimental hybrids is predicted by the genetic distance between species of cichlid fish.

BACKGROUND: Transgressive segregation describes the occurrence of novel phenotypes in hybrids with extreme trait values not observed in either parental species. A previously experimentally untested prediction is that the amount of transgression increases with the genetic distance between hybridizing species. This follows from QTL studies suggesting that transgression is most commonly due to complementary gene action or epistasis, which become more frequent at larger genetic distances. This is because the number of QTLs fixed for alleles with opposing signs in different species should increase with time since speciation provided that speciation is not driven by disruptive selection. We measured the amount of transgression occurring in hybrids of cichlid fish bred from species pairs with gradually increasing genetic distances and varying phenotypic similarity. Transgression in multi-trait shape phenotypes was quantified using landmark-based geometric morphometric methods. RESULTS: We found that genetic distance explained 52% and 78% of the variation in transgression frequency in F1 and F2 hybrids, respectively. Confirming theoretical predictions, transgression when measured in F2 hybrids, increased linearly with genetic distance between hybridizing species. Phenotypic similarity of species on the other hand was not related to the amount of transgression. CONCLUSION: The commonness and ease with which novel phenotypes are produced in cichlid hybrids between unrelated species has important implications for the interaction of hybridization with adaptation and speciation. Hybridization may generate new genotypes with adaptive potential that did not reside as standing genetic variation in either parental population, potentially enhancing a population's responsiveness to selection. Our results make it conceivable that hybridization contributed to the rapid rates of phenotypic evolution in the large and rapid adaptive radiations of haplochromine cichlids.