Comparison of neoadjuvant cisplatin-based chemotherapy versus radiochemotherapy followed by resection for stage III (N2) NSCLC.

OBJECTIVE: Comparison of prospectively treated patients with neoadjuvant cisplatin-based chemotherapy vs radiochemotherapy followed by resection for mediastinoscopically proven stage III N2 non-small cell lung cancer with respect to postoperative morbidity, pathological nodal downstaging, overall and disease-free survival, and site of recurrence. METHODS: Eighty-two patients were enrolled between January 1994 to June 2003, 36 had cisplatin and doxetacel-based chemotherapy (group I) and 46 cisplatin-based radiochemotherapy up to 44 Gy (group II), either as sequential (25 patients) or concomitant (21 patients) treatment. All patients had evaluation of absence of distant metastases by bone scintigraphy, thoracoabdominal CT scan or PET scan, and brain MRI, and all underwent pre-induction mediastinoscopy, resection and mediastinal lymph node dissection by the same surgeon. RESULTS: Group I and II comprised T1/2 tumors in 47 and 28%, T3 tumors in 45 and 41%, and T4 tumors in 8 and 31% of the patients, respectively (P=0.03). There was a similar distribution of the extent of resection (lobectomy, sleeve lobectomy, left and right pneumonectomy) in both groups (P=0.9). Group I and II revealed a postoperative 90-d mortality of 3 and 4% (P=0.6), a R0-resection rate of 92 and 94% (P=0.9), and a pathological mediastinal downstaging in 61 and 78% of the patients (P<0.01), respectively. 5y-overall survival and disease-free survival of all patients were 40 and 36%, respectively, without significant difference between T1-3 and T4 tumors. There was no significant difference in overall survival rate in either induction regimens, however, radiochemotherapy was associated with a longer disease-free survival than chemotherapy (P=0.04). There was no significant difference between concurrent vs sequential radiochemotherapy with respect to postoperative morbidity, resectability, pathological nodal downstaging, survival and disease-free survival. CONCLUSIONS: Neoadjuvant cisplatin-based radiochemotherapy was associated with a similar postoperative mortality, an increased pathological nodal downstaging and a better disease-free survival as compared to cisplatin doxetacel-based chemotherapy in patients with stage III (N2) NSCLC although a higher number of T4 tumors were admitted to radiochemotherapy.

VARIABILITY OF PHENOTYPIC, PROTEOMIC AND TRANSCRIPTOMIC EXPRESSION OF STAPHYLOCOCCUS AUREUS SURFACE ADHESINS

Staphylococcus aureus is a highly successful pathogen responsible of a wide variety of diseases, from minor skin infection to life-threatening sepsis or infective endocarditis, as well as food poisoning and toxic shock syndrome. This heterogeneity of infections and the ability of S. aureus to develop antibiotic-resistance to virtually any available drugs reflect its extraordinary capacity to adapt and survive in a great variety of environments. The pathogenesis of S. aureus infection involves a wide range of cell wall-associated adhesins and extracellular toxins that promote host colonization and invasion. In addition, S. aureus is extremely well equipped with regulatory systems that sense environmental conditions and respond by fine tuning the expression of metabolic and virulence determinants. Surface adhesins referred to MSCRAMMs - for Microbial Surface Component Recognizing Adherence Matrix Molecules - mediate binding to the host extracellular matrix or serum components, including fibrinogen, fibronectin, collagen and elastin, and promote tissue colonization and invasion. Major MSCRAMMs include a family of surface-attached proteins covalently bound to the cell wall peptidoglycan via a conserved LPXTG motif. Genomic analyses indicate that S. aureus contain up to 22 LPXTG surface proteins, which could potentially act individually or in synergy to promote infection. In the first part of this study we determined the range of adherence phenotypes to fibrinogen and fibronectin among 30 carriage isolates of S. aureus and compared it to the adherence phenotypes of 30 infective endocarditis and 30 blood culture isolates. Overall there were great variations in in vitro adherence, but no differences were observed between carriage and infection strains. We further determined the relation between in vitro adherence and in vivo infectivity in a rat model of experimental endocarditis, using 4 isolates that displayed either extremely low or high adherence phenotypes. Unexpectedly, no differences were observed between the in vivo infectivity of isolates that were poorly and highly adherent in vitro. We concluded that the natural variability of in vitro adherence to fibrinogen and fibronectin did not correlate with in vivo infectivity, and thus that pathogenic differences between various strains might only be expressed in in vivo conditions, but not in vitro. Therefore, considering the importance of adhesins expression for infection, direct measurement of those adhesins present on the bacterial surface were made by proteomic approach. 5 In the second series of experiments we assessed the physical presence of the LPXTG species at the staphylococcal surface, as measured at various time points during growth in different culture media. S. aureus Newman was grown in either tryptic soy broth (TSB) or in Roswell Park Memorial Institute (RPMI) culture medium, and samples were removed from early exponential growth phase to late stationary phase. Experiments were performed with mutants in the global accessory-gene regulator (agr), surface protein A (Spa) and clumping factor A (ClfA). Peptides of surface proteins were recovered by "trypsin-shaving" of live bacteria, and semi-quantitative proteomic analysis was performed by tandem liquid-chromatography and mass-spectrometry (LC-MS). We also determined in parallel the mRNA expression by microarrays analysis, as well as the phenotypic adherence of the bacteria to fibrinogen in vitro. The surface proteome was highly complex and contained numerous proteins theoretically not belonging to the bacterial envelope, including ribosomal proteins and metabolic enzymes. Sixteen of the 21 known LPXTG species were detected, but were differentially expressed. As expected, 9 known agr-regulated proteins (e.g. including Spa, FnBPA, ClfA, IsdA, IsdB, SasH, SasD, SasG and FmtB) increased up to the late exponential growth phase, and were abrogated in agr-negative mutants. However, only Spa and SasH modified their proteomic and mRNA profiles in parallel in the parent and its agr negative mutant, while all other LPXTG proteins modified their proteomic profiles independently of their mRNA. Moreover, ClfA became highly transcribed and active in in vitro fibrinogen adherence tests during late growth (24h), whereas it remained poorly detected by proteomics. Differential expression was also detected in iron-rich TSB versus iron-poor RPMI. Proteins from the iron-regulated surface determinant (isd) system, including IsdA, IsdB and IsdH were barely expressed in iron-rich TSB, whereas they increased their expression by >10 time in iron-poor RPMI. We conclude that semi-quantitative proteomic analysis of specific protein species is feasible in S. aureus and that proteomic, transcriptomic and adherence phenotypes demonstrated differential profiles in S. aureus. Furthermore, peptide signatures released by trypsin shaving suggested differential protein domain exposures in various environments, which might be relevant for antiadhesins vaccines. A comprehensive understanding of the S. aureus physiology should integrate all these approaches.

Diagnostic de la maladie coronarienne stable par FFR non invasive, mythe ou réalité [Diagnosis of stable coronary artery disease with non-invasive FFR: myth or reality?].

Decision to revascularize a patient with stable coronary artery disease should be based on the detection of myocardial ischemia. If this decision can be straightforward with significant stenosis or in non-significant stenosis, the decision with intermediate stenosis is far more difficult and require invasive measures of functional impact of coronary stenosis on maximal blood (flow fractional flow reserve=FFR). A recent computer based method has been developed and is able to measure FFR with data acquired during a standard coronary CT-scan (FFRcT). Two recent clinical studies (DeFACTO and DISCOVER-FLOW) show that diagnostic performance of FFRcT was associated with improved diagnostic accuracy versus standard coronary CT-scan for the detection of myocardial ischemia although FFRcT need further development.

Panitumumab plus radiotherapy versus chemoradiotherapy in patients with unresected, locally advanced squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck (CONCERT-2): a randomised, controlled, open-label phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to compare panitumumab, a fully human monoclonal antibody against EGFR, plus radiotherapy with chemoradiotherapy in patients with unresected, locally advanced squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck. METHODS: In this international, open-label, randomised, controlled, phase 2 trial, we recruited patients with locally advanced squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck from 22 sites in eight countries worldwide. Patients aged 18 years and older with stage III, IVa, or IVb, previously untreated, measurable (≥10 mm for at least one dimension), locally advanced squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck (non-nasopharygeal) and an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0-1 were randomly assigned (2:3) by an independent vendor to open-label chemoradiotherapy (two cycles of cisplatin 100 mg/m(2) during radiotherapy) or to radiotherapy plus panitumumab (three cycles of panitumumab 9 mg/kg every 3 weeks administered with radiotherapy) using a stratified randomisation with a block size of five. All patients received 70-72 Gy to gross tumour and 54 Gy to areas of subclinical disease with accelerated fractionation radiotherapy. The primary endpoint was local-regional control at 2 years, analysed in all randomly assigned patients who received at least one dose of their assigned protocol-specific treatment (chemotherapy, radiation, or panitumumab). The trial is closed and this is the final analysis. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00547157. FINDINGS: Between Nov 30, 2007, and Nov 16, 2009, 152 patients were enrolled, and 151 received treatment (61 in the chemoradiotherapy group and 90 in the radiotherapy plus panitumumab group). Local-regional control at 2 years was 61% (95% CI 47-72) in the chemoradiotherapy group and 51% (40-62) in the radiotherapy plus panitumumab group. The most frequent grade 3-4 adverse events were mucosal inflammation (25 [40%] of 62 patients in the chemoradiotherapy group vs 37 [42%] of 89 patients in the radiotherapy plus panitumumab group), dysphagia (20 [32%] vs 36 [40%]), and radiation skin injury (seven [11%] vs 21 [24%]). Serious adverse events were reported in 25 (40%) of 62 patients in the chemoradiotherapy group and in 30 (34%) of 89 patients in the radiotherapy plus panitumumab group. INTERPRETATION: Panitumumab cannot replace cisplatin in the combined treatment with radiotherapy for unresected stage III-IVb squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck, and the role of EGFR inhibition in locally advanced squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck needs to be reassessed. FUNDING: Amgen.

PIDD death-domain phosphorylation by ATM controls prodeath versus prosurvival PIDDosome signaling.

Biochemical evidence implicates the death-domain (DD) protein PIDD as a molecular switch capable of signaling cell survival or death in response to genotoxic stress. PIDD activity is determined by binding-partner selection at its DD: whereas recruitment of RIP1 triggers prosurvival NF-κB signaling, recruitment of RAIDD activates proapoptotic caspase-2 via PIDDosome formation. However, it remains unclear how interactor selection, and thus fate decision, is regulated at the PIDD platform. We show that the PIDDosome functions in the "Chk1-suppressed" apoptotic response to DNA damage, a conserved ATM/ATR-caspase-2 pathway antagonized by Chk1. In this pathway, ATM phosphorylates PIDD on Thr788 within the DD. This phosphorylation is necessary and sufficient for RAIDD binding and caspase-2 activation. Conversely, nonphosphorylatable PIDD fails to bind RAIDD or activate caspase-2, and engages prosurvival RIP1 instead. Thus, ATM phosphorylation of the PIDD DD enables a binary switch through which cells elect to survive or die upon DNA injury.

Concomitant chemoradiotherapy versus acceleration of radiotherapy with or without concomitant chemotherapy in locally advanced head and neck carcinoma (GORTEC 99-02): an open-label phase 3 randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Concomitant chemoradiotherapy and accelerated radiotherapy independently improve outcomes for patients with locally advanced head and neck squamous-cell carcinoma (HNSCC). We aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of a combination of these approaches. METHODS: In our open-label phase 3 randomised trial, we enrolled patients with locally advanced, stage III and IV (non-metastatic) HNSCC and an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0-2. We randomly allocated patients centrally with a computer program (with centre, T stage, N stage, and localisation as minimisation factors) in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive conventional chemoradiotherapy (70 Gy in 7 weeks plus three cycles of 4 days' concomitant carboplatin-fluorouracil), accelerated radiotherapy-chemotherapy (70 Gy in 6 weeks plus two cycles of 5 days' concomitant carboplatin-fluorouracil), or very accelerated radiotherapy alone (64·8 Gy [1·8 Gy twice daily] in 3·5 weeks). The primary endpoint, progression-free survival (PFS), was assessed in all enrolled patients. This trial is completed. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00828386. FINDINGS: Between Feb 29, 2000, and May 9, 2007, we randomly allocated 279 patients to receive conventional chemoradiotherapy, 280 to accelerated radiotherapy-chemotherapy, and 281 to very accelerated radiotherapy. Median follow-up was 5·2 years (IQR 4·9-6·2); rates of chemotherapy and radiotherapy compliance were good in all groups. Accelerated radiotherapy-chemotherapy offered no PFS benefit compared with conventional chemoradiotherapy (HR 1·02, 95% CI 0·84-1·23; p=0·88) or very accelerated radiotherapy (0·83, 0·69-1·01; p=0·060); conventional chemoradiotherapy improved PFS compared with very accelerated radiotherapy (0·82, 0·67-0·99; p=0·041). 3-year PFS was 37·6% (95% CI 32·1-43·4) after conventional chemoradiotherapy, 34·1% (28·7-39·8) after accelerated radiotherapy-chemotherapy, and 32·2% (27·0-37·9) after very accelerated radiotherapy. More patients in the very accelerated radiotherapy group had RTOG grade 3-4 acute mucosal toxicity (226 [84%] of 268 patients) compared with accelerated radiotherapy-chemotherapy (205 [76%] of 271 patients) or conventional chemoradiotherapy (180 [69%] of 262; p=0·0001). 158 (60%) of 265 patients in the conventional chemoradiotherapy group, 176 (64%) of 276 patients in the accelerated radiotherapy-chemotherapy group, and 190 (70%) of 272 patients in the very accelerated radiotherapy group were intubated with feeding tubes during treatment (p=0·045). INTERPRETATION: Chemotherapy has a substantial treatment effect given concomitantly with radiotherapy and acceleration of radiotherapy cannot compensate for the absence of chemotherapy. We noted the most favourable outcomes for conventional chemoradiotherapy, suggesting that acceleration of radiotherapy is probably not beneficial in concomitant chemoradiotherapy schedules. FUNDING: French Ministry of Health.

Non-Risk-Adapted Surveillance in Clinical Stage I Nonseminomatous Germ Cell Tumors: The Princess Margaret Hospital's Experience.

BACKGROUND: Since 1981 Princess Margaret Hospital has used initial active surveillance (AS) with delayed treatment at relapse as the preferred management for all patients with clinical stage I nonseminomatous germ cell tumors (NSGCT). OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to report our overall AS experience and compare outcomes over different periods using this non-risk-adapted approach. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Three hundred and seventy-one patients with stage I NSGCT were managed by AS from 1981 to 2005. For analysis by time period, patients were divided into two cohorts by diagnosis date: initial cohort, 1981-1992 (n=157), and recent cohort, 1993-2005 (n=214). INTERVENTION: Patients were followed at regular intervals, and treatment was only given for relapse. MEASUREMENTS: Recurrence rates, time to relapse, risk factors for recurrence, disease-specific survival, and overall survival were determined. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: With a median follow-up of 6.3 yr, 104 patients (28%) relapsed: 53 of 157 (33.8%) in the initial group and 51 of 214 (23.8%) in the recent group. Median time to relapse was 7 mo. Lymphovascular invasion (p<0.0001) and pure embryonal carcinoma (p=0.02) were independent predictors of recurrence; 125 patients (33.7%) were designated as high risk based on the presence of one or both factors. In the initial cohort, 66 of 157 patients (42.0%) were high risk and 36 of 66 patients (54.5%) relapsed versus 17 of 91 low-risk patients (18.7%) (p<0.0001). In the recent cohort, 59 of 214 patients (27.6%) were high risk and 29 of 59 had a recurrence (49.2%) versus 22 of 155 low-risk patients (14.2%) (p<0.0001). Three patients (0.8%) died from testis cancer. The estimated 5-yr disease-specific survival was 99.3% in the initial group and 98.9% in the recent one. CONCLUSIONS: Non-risk-adapted surveillance is an effective, simple strategy for the management of all stage I NSGCT.

Reproductive and post-reproductive life history of wild-caught Drosophila melanogaster under laboratory conditions.

The life history of the fruit fly (Drosophila melanogaster) is well understood, but fitness components are rarely measured by following single individuals over their lifetime, thereby limiting insights into lifetime reproductive success, reproductive senescence and post-reproductive lifespan. Moreover, most studies have examined long-established laboratory strains rather than freshly caught individuals and may thus be confounded by adaptation to laboratory culture, inbreeding or mutation accumulation. Here, we have followed the life histories of individual females from three recently caught, non-laboratory-adapted wild populations of D. melanogaster. Populations varied in a number of life-history traits, including ovariole number, fecundity, hatchability and lifespan. To describe individual patterns of age-specific fecundity, we developed a new model that allowed us to distinguish four phases during a female's life: a phase of reproductive maturation, followed by a period of linear and then exponential decline in fecundity and, finally, a post-ovipository period. Individual females exhibited clear-cut fecundity peaks, which contrasts with previous analyses, and post-peak levels of fecundity declined independently of how long females lived. Notably, females had a pronounced post-reproductive lifespan, which on average made up 40% of total lifespan. Post-reproductive lifespan did not differ among populations and was not correlated with reproductive fitness components, supporting the hypothesis that this period is a highly variable, random 'add-on' at the end of reproductive life rather than a correlate of selection on reproductive fitness. Most life-history traits were positively correlated, a pattern that might be due to genotype by environment interactions when wild flies are brought into a novel laboratory environment but that is unlikely explained by inbreeding or positive mutational covariance caused by mutation accumulation.

Indicateurs de soins, attentes et préférences des personnes âgées non-institutionnalisées dans le canton de Vaud

Depuis 2004, la cohorte Lc65+, consacrée à l'étude du vieillissement, observe la santé des Lausannois nés entre 1934 et 1943 et produit des données utiles à l'accompagnement de la politique Vieillissement & Santé du canton de Vaud. En automne 2011, un financement de la Fondation Leenaards a permis d'étendre temporairement son échantillon à l'entier de la population âgée du canton, en incluant aussi des personnes vivant à Lausanne nées avant 1934 ainsi que des Vaudois vivant en dehors de la ville de Lausanne et nés avant 1944. Cette extension était destinée à l'étude de la qualité de vie et de ses liens avec la santé. L'observation a ainsi porté sur un large échantillon représentatif de la population âgée vivant à son domicile privé dans le canton de Vaud. Le mandat confié à l'Unité des services de santé de l'IUMSP est venu dans un troisième temps. Il a consisté à réinterroger en 2012 l'ensemble des personnes ayant participé à l'enquête sur la qualité de vie, alors âgées de 68 ans et plus. L'information recueillie est centrée sur leur expérience des soins, leur connaissance du domaine des prestations médico-sociales et leurs attentes. Le présent rapport présente les résultats de cette enquête sur les soins sous la forme d'indicateurs bruts, puis ventilés par région (Ville de Lausanne versus Hors Lausanne), par sexe et enfin par âge. Seules les différences atteignant le seuil de signification statistique de p<.005 sont présentées sous forme de graphiques et commentées. En annexe figure par ailleurs sous forme de tableau l'ensemble des résultats globaux chiffrés ainsi que, pour information, les résultats spécifiques par lieu du domicile, sexe et âge lorsque ces derniers montrent des différences répondant à un critère moins strict (p<.05); cependant, en raison du très grand nombre de comparaisons effectuées, les différences entre sous-groupes exposées dans ce tableau doivent être interprétées avec la prudence d'usage.

Gas6 deficiency in recipient mice of allogeneic transplantation alleviates hepatic graft-versus-host disease.

Growth arrest-specific gene 6 (Gas6) is expressed in antigen-presenting cells and endothelial cells (ECs) but not in T cells. When wild-type (WT) or Gas6(-/-) mice received allogeneic non-T cell-depleted bone marrow cells, hepatic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) was alleviated in Gas6(-/-) recipients regardless of donor genotype, but not in WT recipients. T-cell infiltration was more prominent and diffuse in WT than in Gas6(-/-) recipients' liver. When mice received 0.5 x 10(6) allogeneic T cells with T cell-depleted allogeneic bone marrow, clinical signs indicated that GVHD was less severe in Gas6(-/-) than in WT recipients, as shown by a significant improvement of the survival and reduced liver GVHD. These data demonstrate that donor cells were not involved in the protection mechanism. In addition, lack of Gas6 in antigen-presenting cells did not affect WT or Gas6(-/-) T-cell proliferation. We therefore assessed the response of WT or Gas6(-/-) ECs to tumor necrosis factor-alpha. Lymphocyte transmigration was less extensive through Gas6(-/-) than WT ECs and was not accompanied by increases in adhesion molecule levels. Thus, the lack of Gas6 in ECs impaired donor T-cell transmigration into the liver, providing a rationale for considering Gas6 pathway as a potential nonimmunosuppressive target to minimize GVHD in patients receiving allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

Maximal aerobic power during running and cycling in obese and non-obese children.

The maximal aerobic capacity while running and cycling was measured in 22 prepubertal children (mean age +/- SD 9.5 +/- 0.8 years): 14 obese (47.3 +/- 10 kg) and 8 non-obese (31.1 +/- 6.1 kg). Oxygen consumption (VO2) and carbon dioxide production were measured by an open circuit method. Steady state VO2 was determined at different levels of exercise up to the maximal power on the cycloergometer (92 W in obese and 77 W in non-obese subjects) and up to the maximal running speed on the treadmill at a 2% slope (8.3 km/h in obese and 9.0 km/h in lean children). Expressed in absolute values, the VO2max in obese children was significantly higher than in controls (1.55 +/- 0.29 l/min versus 1.23 +/- 0.22 l/min, p < 0.05) for the treadmill test and comparable in the two groups (1.4 +/- 0.2 l/min versus 1.16 +/- 0.2 l/min, ns) for the cycloergometer test. When VO2max was expressed per kg fat free mass, the difference between the two groups disappeared for both tests. These data suggest that obese children had no limitation of maximal aerobic power. Therefore, the magnitude of the workload prescribed when a physical activity program is intended for the therapy of childhood obesity, it should be designed to increase caloric output rather than to improve cardiorespiratory fitness.

90Yttrium-Ibritumomab Tiuxetan Consolidation of First Remission in Advanced-Stage Follicular Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma: Updated Results After a Median Follow-Up of 7.3 Years From the International, Randomized, Phase III First-Line Indolent Trial.

PURPOSE Updated results are presented after a median follow-up of 7.3 years from the phase III First-Line Indolent Trial of yttrium-90 ((90)Y) -ibritumomab tiuxetan in advanced-stage follicular lymphoma (FL) in first remission. PATIENTS AND METHODS Patients with CD20(+) stage III or IV FL with complete response (CR), unconfirmed CR (CRu), or partial response (PR) after first-line induction treatment were randomly assigned to (90)Y-ibritumomab consolidation therapy (rituximab 250 mg/m(2) days -7 and 0, then (90)Y-ibritumomab 14.8 MBq/kg day 0; maximum 1,184 MBq) or no further treatment (control). Primary end point was progression-free survival (PFS) from date of random assignment. Results For 409 patients available for analysis ((90)Y-ibritumomab, n = 207; control, n = 202), estimated 8-year overall PFS was 41% with (90)Y-ibritumomab versus 22% for control (hazard ratio [HR], 0.47; P < .001). For patients in CR/CRu after induction, 8-year PFS with (90)Y-ibritumomab was 48% versus 32% for control (HR, 0.61; P = .008), and for PR patients, it was 33% versus 10% (HR, 0.38; P < .001). For (90)Y-ibritumomab consolidation, median PFS was 4.1 years (v 1.1 years for control; P < .001). Median time to next treatment (TTNT) was 8.1 years for (90)Y-ibritumomab versus 3.0 years for control (P < .001) with approximately 80% response rates to second-line therapy in either arm, including autologous stem-cell transplantation. No unexpected toxicities emerged during long-term follow-up. Estimated between-group 8-year overall survival rates were similar. Annualized incidence rate of myelodysplastic syndrome/acute myeloblastic leukemia was 0.50% versus 0.07% in (90)Y-ibritumomab and control groups, respectively (P = .042). CONCLUSION (90)Y-ibritumomab consolidation after achieving PR or CR/CRu to induction confers 3-year benefit in median PFS with durable 19% PFS advantage at 8 years and improves TTNT by 5.1 years for patients with advanced FL.

Estimation of jump-diffusion processes via empirical characteristic functions

Preface The starting point for this work and eventually the subject of the whole thesis was the question: how to estimate parameters of the affine stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models. These models are very important for contingent claim pricing. Their major advantage, availability T of analytical solutions for characteristic functions, made them the models of choice for many theoretical constructions and practical applications. At the same time, estimation of parameters of stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models is not a straightforward task. The problem is coming from the variance process, which is non-observable. There are several estimation methodologies that deal with estimation problems of latent variables. One appeared to be particularly interesting. It proposes the estimator that in contrast to the other methods requires neither discretization nor simulation of the process: the Continuous Empirical Characteristic function estimator (EGF) based on the unconditional characteristic function. However, the procedure was derived only for the stochastic volatility models without jumps. Thus, it has become the subject of my research. This thesis consists of three parts. Each one is written as independent and self contained article. At the same time, questions that are answered by the second and third parts of this Work arise naturally from the issues investigated and results obtained in the first one. The first chapter is the theoretical foundation of the thesis. It proposes an estimation procedure for the stochastic volatility models with jumps both in the asset price and variance processes. The estimation procedure is based on the joint unconditional characteristic function for the stochastic process. The major analytical result of this part as well as of the whole thesis is the closed form expression for the joint unconditional characteristic function for the stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models. The empirical part of the chapter suggests that besides a stochastic volatility, jumps both in the mean and the volatility equation are relevant for modelling returns of the S&P500 index, which has been chosen as a general representative of the stock asset class. Hence, the next question is: what jump process to use to model returns of the S&P500. The decision about the jump process in the framework of the affine jump- diffusion models boils down to defining the intensity of the compound Poisson process, a constant or some function of state variables, and to choosing the distribution of the jump size. While the jump in the variance process is usually assumed to be exponential, there are at least three distributions of the jump size which are currently used for the asset log-prices: normal, exponential and double exponential. The second part of this thesis shows that normal jumps in the asset log-returns should be used if we are to model S&P500 index by a stochastic volatility jump-diffusion model. This is a surprising result. Exponential distribution has fatter tails and for this reason either exponential or double exponential jump size was expected to provide the best it of the stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models to the data. The idea of testing the efficiency of the Continuous ECF estimator on the simulated data has already appeared when the first estimation results of the first chapter were obtained. In the absence of a benchmark or any ground for comparison it is unreasonable to be sure that our parameter estimates and the true parameters of the models coincide. The conclusion of the second chapter provides one more reason to do that kind of test. Thus, the third part of this thesis concentrates on the estimation of parameters of stochastic volatility jump- diffusion models on the basis of the asset price time-series simulated from various "true" parameter sets. The goal is to show that the Continuous ECF estimator based on the joint unconditional characteristic function is capable of finding the true parameters. And, the third chapter proves that our estimator indeed has the ability to do so. Once it is clear that the Continuous ECF estimator based on the unconditional characteristic function is working, the next question does not wait to appear. The question is whether the computation effort can be reduced without affecting the efficiency of the estimator, or whether the efficiency of the estimator can be improved without dramatically increasing the computational burden. The efficiency of the Continuous ECF estimator depends on the number of dimensions of the joint unconditional characteristic function which is used for its construction. Theoretically, the more dimensions there are, the more efficient is the estimation procedure. In practice, however, this relationship is not so straightforward due to the increasing computational difficulties. The second chapter, for example, in addition to the choice of the jump process, discusses the possibility of using the marginal, i.e. one-dimensional, unconditional characteristic function in the estimation instead of the joint, bi-dimensional, unconditional characteristic function. As result, the preference for one or the other depends on the model to be estimated. Thus, the computational effort can be reduced in some cases without affecting the efficiency of the estimator. The improvement of the estimator s efficiency by increasing its dimensionality faces more difficulties. The third chapter of this thesis, in addition to what was discussed above, compares the performance of the estimators with bi- and three-dimensional unconditional characteristic functions on the simulated data. It shows that the theoretical efficiency of the Continuous ECF estimator based on the three-dimensional unconditional characteristic function is not attainable in practice, at least for the moment, due to the limitations on the computer power and optimization toolboxes available to the general public. Thus, the Continuous ECF estimator based on the joint, bi-dimensional, unconditional characteristic function has all the reasons to exist and to be used for the estimation of parameters of the stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models.

High-throughput SELEX SAGE method for quantitative modeling of transcription-factor binding sites.

The ability to determine the location and relative strength of all transcription-factor binding sites in a genome is important both for a comprehensive understanding of gene regulation and for effective promoter engineering in biotechnological applications. Here we present a bioinformatically driven experimental method to accurately define the DNA-binding sequence specificity of transcription factors. A generalized profile was used as a predictive quantitative model for binding sites, and its parameters were estimated from in vitro-selected ligands using standard hidden Markov model training algorithms. Computer simulations showed that several thousand low- to medium-affinity sequences are required to generate a profile of desired accuracy. To produce data on this scale, we applied high-throughput genomics methods to the biochemical problem addressed here. A method combining systematic evolution of ligands by exponential enrichment (SELEX) and serial analysis of gene expression (SAGE) protocols was coupled to an automated quality-controlled sequence extraction procedure based on Phred quality scores. This allowed the sequencing of a database of more than 10,000 potential DNA ligands for the CTF/NFI transcription factor. The resulting binding-site model defines the sequence specificity of this protein with a high degree of accuracy not achieved earlier and thereby makes it possible to identify previously unknown regulatory sequences in genomic DNA. A covariance analysis of the selected sites revealed non-independent base preferences at different nucleotide positions, providing insight into the binding mechanism.

Potential impact of single-risk-factor versus total risk management for the prevention of cardiovascular events in Seychelles.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence of cardiovascular (CV) risk factors in Seychelles, a middle-income African country, and compare the cost-effectiveness of single-risk-factor management (treating individuals with arterial blood pressure >/= 140/90 mmHg and/or total serum cholesterol >/= 6.2 mmol/l) with that of management based on total CV risk (treating individuals with a total CV risk >/= 10% or >/= 20%).METHODS: CV risk factor prevalence and a CV risk prediction chart for Africa were used to estimate the 10-year risk of suffering a fatal or non-fatal CV event among individuals aged 40-64 years. These figures were used to compare single-risk-factor management with total risk management in terms of the number of people requiring treatment to avert one CV event and the number of events potentially averted over 10 years. Treatment for patients with high total CV risk (>/= 20%) was assumed to consist of a fixed-dose combination of several drugs (polypill). Cost analyses were limited to medication.FINDINGS: A total CV risk of >/= 10% and >/= 20% was found among 10.8% and 5.1% of individuals, respectively. With single-risk-factor management, 60% of adults would need to be treated and 157 cardiovascular events per 100 000 population would be averted per year, as opposed to 5% of adults and 92 events with total CV risk management. Management based on high total CV risk optimizes the balance between the number requiring treatment and the number of CV events averted.CONCLUSION: Total CV risk management is much more cost-effective than single-risk-factor management. These findings are relevant for all countries, but especially for those economically and demographically similar to Seychelles.