Putting the Special Case in Its Place: Switzerland and Small-N Comparison in Policy Research

This research note presents a set of strategies to conduct small-N comparisons in policy research including the Swiss case. Even though every country can be considered "special" to some extent, the Swiss political system is often viewed as a particularly difficult case for comparison because of the impact of its idiosyncratic institutional features (most notably direct democracy). In order to deal with this problem, our note sets out two possible strategies - the use of functional equivalents and of counterfactual reasoning - and explains how to implement them empirically through process tracing and the establishment of causal chains. As an illustration, these strategies are used for a comparison of the process of electricity market liberalisation in Switzerland and Belgium.

Voir et analyser le gouvernement de la foule en liesse. Eléments pour l'étude des rassemblements festifs à l'aide de matériaux sonores et visuels

Seeing and analyzing crowd control : considerations on the study of festive gatherings through the use of audiovisual material. The goal of our research project was to analyze the mechanisms of crowd control on the occasion of the 2008 European Football Championship held in Geneva. In this article, we describe the necessary ambiguity of these occasions for public authorities. On the one hand, they must guarantee that the occasion is sufficiently secure to avoid infractions or incivilities by fans ; on the other hand, they must create the conditions for a festive event of which exuberance is a central part. Police forces aim not to eliminate excesses but to contain them, since some degree of excess is indispensable to ensure the accomplishment of the event. How does the police deal with this complicated situation ? Where is the limit between preventive and repressive measures ? How do they implement management of the public order in the setting of a sports event ? We aim to render visible the practical conditions of the event by making use of video sequences recorded during a match in Geneva. The empirical materials collected will be used to describe three different situations that highlight how quickly fan action can radically switch natures and how complex it is for the police to face a jubilant crowd. In such a context, we show that assuring the smooth progress of the event requires a redefinition of the role of the police, whose interventions must tread a fine line between permissiveness and prohibition.

Affaires de patrons, usages de la frontière : géographie des réseaux marchands entre Niger, Bénin et Nigéria

Résumé L'objectif de la thèse est de comprendre le mode d'organisation économique spécifique aux petits centres urbains qui composent les espaces frontaliers sahéliens, en s'interrogeant sur leur concurrence ou leur complémentarité éventuelle à l'intérieur d'un régime de spatialité particulier. En s'appuyant sur l'exemple du carrefour économique de Gaya-Malanville-Kamba situé à la frontière entre le Niger, le Bénin et le Nigeria, il questionne le rôle de la ville-frontière ainsi que le jeu des acteurs marchands localement dominants, à partir de quatre grandes interrogations : Quelles sont les spécificités de l'Afrique sahélienne qui obligent à renouveler les approches géographiques de l'espace marchand? Quels sont les facteurs déterminants de l'activité économique frontalière? Les formes d'organisation de l'espace qui concourent à la structuration de l'économie sont-elles concurrentes ou coopératives? Les logiques économiques frontalières sont-elles compatibles avec l'orientation des programmes de développement adoptés par les pays sahéliens et leurs partenaires bi- ou multilatéraux? Dans une première partie, un modèle territorial de l'Afrique sahélienne permet de rendre compte de la prédominance des logiques circulatoires sur les logiques productives, une propriété essentielle de toute organisation économique confrontée à l'instabilité climatique. Dans une seconde partie, l'étude considère les facteurs déterminants de l'activité économique frontalière que sont le degré d'enclavement des territoires, la libre circulation des biens et des personnes, les relations concurrentielles ou coopératives qui lient les marchés ainsi que les liens clientélistes qui unissent patron et obligés. Une troisième partie est consacrée aux productions agricoles de tente organisées sous forme de coopératives paysannes ou d'initiatives privées. Une quatrième partie s'intéresse aux réseaux de l'import-export et du commerce de détail qui bénéficient de l'augmentation des besoins engendrée par l'urbanisation sahélienne. L'économie spatiale qui résulte de ces flux est organisée selon deux logiques distinctes : d'une part, les opportunités relatives à la production agricole conduisent certains investisseurs à intensifier l'irrigation pour satisfaire la demande des marchés urbains, d'autre part, les acteurs du capitalisme marchand, actifs dans l'import-export et la vente de détail, développent des réseaux informels et mobiles qui se jouent des différentiels nationaux. Les activités commerciales des villes-marchés connaissent alors des fluctuations liées aux entreprises productives et circulatoires de ces patrons, lesquelles concourent à l'organisation territoriale générale de l>Afrique sahélienne. Ces logiques évoluent dans un contexte fortement marqué par les politiques des institutions financières internationales, des agences bilatérales de coopération et des ONGs. Celles-ci se donnent pour ambition de transformer les économies, les systèmes politiques et les organisations sociales sahéliennes, en faisant la promotion du libéralisme, de la bonne gouvernance et de la société civile. Ces axes directeurs, qui constituent le champ de bataille contemporain du développement, forment un ensemble dans lequel la spécificité sahélienne notamment frontalière est rarement prise en compte. C'est pourquoi l'étude conclut en faveur d'un renouvellement des politiques de développement appliquées aux espaces frontaliers. Trois grands axes d'intervention peuvent alors être dégagés, lesquels permettent de réconcilier des acteurs et des logiques longtemps dissociés: ceux des espaces séparés par une limite administrative, ceux de la sphère urbaine et rurale et ceux du capitalisme marchand et de l'investissement agricole, en renforçant la coopération économique transfrontalière, en prenant en considération les interactions croissantes entre villes et campagnes et en appuyant les activités marchandes. Abstract: Urbanisation in West Africa is recent and fast. If only 10 % of the total population was living in urban areas in 1950, this proportion reached 40 % in 2000 and will be estimated to 60 % in 2025. Small and intermediate cities, located between the countryside and large metropolis, are particularly concerned with this process. They are nowadays considered as efficient vectors of local economic development because of fiscal or monetary disparities between states, which enable businessmen to develop particular skills based on local urban networks. The majority of theses networks are informal and extremely flexible, like in the Gaya - Malanville - Kamba region, located between Niger, Benin and Nigeria. Evidence show that this economic space is characterised by high potentialities (climatic and hydrological conditions, location on main economic West African axis) and few constraints (remoteness of some potentially high productive areas). In this context, this PhD deals with the economic relationships between the three market cities. Focusing on the links that unite the businessmen of the local markets - called patron; - it reveals the extreme flexibility of their strategies as well as the deeply informal nature of their activities. Through the analysis of examples taken from the commerce of agricultural products, import and export flows and detail activities, it studies the changes that have taken place in the city centres of Gaya, Malanville and Kamba. Meanwhile, this research shows how these cities represent a border economical area based on rival and complementary connections. In the first Part, it was necessary to reconsider the usual spatial analysis devoted to the question of economic centrality. As a matter of fact, the organisation of West African economic spaces is very flexible and mobile. Centrality is always precarious because of seasonal or temporary reasons. This is why the first chapters are devoted to the study of the specificity of the Sahelian territoriality. Two main elements are relevant: first the population diversity and second, the urban-rural linkages. In the second part, the study considers three main factors on which the cross-border economic networks are dependent: enclosure that prevents goods to reach the markets, administrative constraints that limit free trade between states and cities and the concurrent or complementary relationships between markets. A third part deals with the clientelist ties engaged between the patrons and their clients with the hypothesis that these relationships are based on reciprocity and inequality. A fourth part is devoted to' the study of the spatial organisation of commercial goods across the borders, as far as the agriculture commercial products, the import-export merchandises and the retail products are concerned. This leads to the conclusion that the economic activity is directly linked to urban growth. However, the study notices that there is a lack of efficient policies dealing with strengthening the business sector and improving the cross-border cooperation. This particularity allows us to favour new local development approaches, which would take into account the important potential of private economical actors. In the same time, the commercial flows should be regulated with the help of public policies, as long as they are specifically adapted to the problems that these areas have to deal with.

Estimation of jump-diffusion processes via empirical characteristic functions

Preface The starting point for this work and eventually the subject of the whole thesis was the question: how to estimate parameters of the affine stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models. These models are very important for contingent claim pricing. Their major advantage, availability T of analytical solutions for characteristic functions, made them the models of choice for many theoretical constructions and practical applications. At the same time, estimation of parameters of stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models is not a straightforward task. The problem is coming from the variance process, which is non-observable. There are several estimation methodologies that deal with estimation problems of latent variables. One appeared to be particularly interesting. It proposes the estimator that in contrast to the other methods requires neither discretization nor simulation of the process: the Continuous Empirical Characteristic function estimator (EGF) based on the unconditional characteristic function. However, the procedure was derived only for the stochastic volatility models without jumps. Thus, it has become the subject of my research. This thesis consists of three parts. Each one is written as independent and self contained article. At the same time, questions that are answered by the second and third parts of this Work arise naturally from the issues investigated and results obtained in the first one. The first chapter is the theoretical foundation of the thesis. It proposes an estimation procedure for the stochastic volatility models with jumps both in the asset price and variance processes. The estimation procedure is based on the joint unconditional characteristic function for the stochastic process. The major analytical result of this part as well as of the whole thesis is the closed form expression for the joint unconditional characteristic function for the stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models. The empirical part of the chapter suggests that besides a stochastic volatility, jumps both in the mean and the volatility equation are relevant for modelling returns of the S&P500 index, which has been chosen as a general representative of the stock asset class. Hence, the next question is: what jump process to use to model returns of the S&P500. The decision about the jump process in the framework of the affine jump- diffusion models boils down to defining the intensity of the compound Poisson process, a constant or some function of state variables, and to choosing the distribution of the jump size. While the jump in the variance process is usually assumed to be exponential, there are at least three distributions of the jump size which are currently used for the asset log-prices: normal, exponential and double exponential. The second part of this thesis shows that normal jumps in the asset log-returns should be used if we are to model S&P500 index by a stochastic volatility jump-diffusion model. This is a surprising result. Exponential distribution has fatter tails and for this reason either exponential or double exponential jump size was expected to provide the best it of the stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models to the data. The idea of testing the efficiency of the Continuous ECF estimator on the simulated data has already appeared when the first estimation results of the first chapter were obtained. In the absence of a benchmark or any ground for comparison it is unreasonable to be sure that our parameter estimates and the true parameters of the models coincide. The conclusion of the second chapter provides one more reason to do that kind of test. Thus, the third part of this thesis concentrates on the estimation of parameters of stochastic volatility jump- diffusion models on the basis of the asset price time-series simulated from various "true" parameter sets. The goal is to show that the Continuous ECF estimator based on the joint unconditional characteristic function is capable of finding the true parameters. And, the third chapter proves that our estimator indeed has the ability to do so. Once it is clear that the Continuous ECF estimator based on the unconditional characteristic function is working, the next question does not wait to appear. The question is whether the computation effort can be reduced without affecting the efficiency of the estimator, or whether the efficiency of the estimator can be improved without dramatically increasing the computational burden. The efficiency of the Continuous ECF estimator depends on the number of dimensions of the joint unconditional characteristic function which is used for its construction. Theoretically, the more dimensions there are, the more efficient is the estimation procedure. In practice, however, this relationship is not so straightforward due to the increasing computational difficulties. The second chapter, for example, in addition to the choice of the jump process, discusses the possibility of using the marginal, i.e. one-dimensional, unconditional characteristic function in the estimation instead of the joint, bi-dimensional, unconditional characteristic function. As result, the preference for one or the other depends on the model to be estimated. Thus, the computational effort can be reduced in some cases without affecting the efficiency of the estimator. The improvement of the estimator s efficiency by increasing its dimensionality faces more difficulties. The third chapter of this thesis, in addition to what was discussed above, compares the performance of the estimators with bi- and three-dimensional unconditional characteristic functions on the simulated data. It shows that the theoretical efficiency of the Continuous ECF estimator based on the three-dimensional unconditional characteristic function is not attainable in practice, at least for the moment, due to the limitations on the computer power and optimization toolboxes available to the general public. Thus, the Continuous ECF estimator based on the joint, bi-dimensional, unconditional characteristic function has all the reasons to exist and to be used for the estimation of parameters of the stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models.

An adaptive multiscale method for density-driven instabilities

Accurate modeling of flow instabilities requires computational tools able to deal with several interacting scales, from the scale at which fingers are triggered up to the scale at which their effects need to be described. The Multiscale Finite Volume (MsFV) method offers a framework to couple fine-and coarse-scale features by solving a set of localized problems which are used both to define a coarse-scale problem and to reconstruct the fine-scale details of the flow. The MsFV method can be seen as an upscaling-downscaling technique, which is computationally more efficient than standard discretization schemes and more accurate than traditional upscaling techniques. We show that, although the method has proven accurate in modeling density-driven flow under stable conditions, the accuracy of the MsFV method deteriorates in case of unstable flow and an iterative scheme is required to control the localization error. To avoid large computational overhead due to the iterative scheme, we suggest several adaptive strategies both for flow and transport. In particular, the concentration gradient is used to identify a front region where instabilities are triggered and an accurate (iteratively improved) solution is required. Outside the front region the problem is upscaled and both flow and transport are solved only at the coarse scale. This adaptive strategy leads to very accurate solutions at roughly the same computational cost as the non-iterative MsFV method. In many circumstances, however, an accurate description of flow instabilities requires a refinement of the computational grid rather than a coarsening. For these problems, we propose a modified iterative MsFV, which can be used as downscaling method (DMsFV). Compared to other grid refinement techniques the DMsFV clearly separates the computational domain into refined and non-refined regions, which can be treated separately and matched later. This gives great flexibility to employ different physical descriptions in different regions, where different equations could be solved, offering an excellent framework to construct hybrid methods.

Death Caused by Cardioinhibitory Reflex. What experts believe

The danger of neck compression without restriction of the arterial flow remains unresolved in forensic medicine. There is an ongoing debate concerning life endangerment due to the cardioinhibitory reflex. The aim of this study was to determine what forensic medical experts believe and how they deal with this reflex. An anonymous electronic questionnaire was sent to 1429 forensic medical experts all over the world. We asked them about their opinion on the cardioinhibitory reflex, its role in causing death, and what their diagnostic criteria were.A total of 182 questionnaires were returned. The experts who answered were from 32 different countries. Our survey showed that 80.2% of experts believe that the cardioinhibitory reflex can theoretically cause death. In the practical application opinions diverge though. Apparently, the practical application mainly depends on the habit of the individual expert. We observed no consensus on the diagnostic criteria to be used. Given the potentially frequent use of the concept of the cardioinhibitory reflex in forensic practice and its judicial impact it would be important to reach a consensus.

Ontogeny of Sleeping in Color - Linking melanism to sleep architecture and rhythmicity variation in wild barn owl nestlings

The function of sleep remains unknown. To gain insight into the function of sleep in natural conditions, I assessed variation in sleep architecture and its link with fitness-related phenotypic traits. I considered melanin-based coloration because its underlying genetic basis is very well known giving an opportunity to examine whether some genes pleiotropically regulate both coloration and sleep. The melanocortin system is known to generate covariation between melanin-based coloration and other phenotypes like behaviour, physiology and life history traits. I investigated whether this system of genes could participate in the co-expression of coloration and sleep. I carried out a study with nestling barn owls (Tyto alba) in order to tackle the potential link between variation in color traits and the ontogeny of sleep under natural conditions. For this I established a suitable method for recording the brain activity (electroencephalogram) of owls in nature. Birds are especially interesting, because they convergently evolved sleep states similar to those exhibited by mammals. As in mammals, I found that in owlets time spent in rapid eye movement (REM) sleep declines with age, a relationship thought to eflect developmental changes in the brain. Thus this developmental trajectory appears to reflect a fundamental feature of sleep. Additionally, I discovered an association between a gene involved in melanism expressed in the feather follicles (proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 2, PCSK2) and the age-related changes in sleep in the brain. Nestlings with higher expression levels of PCSK2 showed a more precocial pattern of sleep development and a higher degree of melanin-based coloration compared to nestlings with lower PCSK2 expression. Also sleep architecture and the development of rhythmicity in brain and physical activity was related to plumage traits of the nestlings and their biological parents. This pattern during ontogeny might reflect differences in life l history strategies, antipredator behaviour and developmental pace. Therefore, differently colored individuals may differentially deal with trade-offs between the costs and benefits of sleep which in turn lead to differences in brain organization and ultimately fitness. These results should stimulate evolutionary biologists to consider sleep as a major life history trait. Résumé La fonction du sommeil reste inconnue. Afin d'acquérir une meilleur compréhension de la fonction du sommeil dans les conditions naturelles, j'ai analysé la variation dans l'architecture du sommeil et son lien avec d'autres traits phénotypiques liés au succès reproducteur (fitness). J'ai choisi et examiné la coloration mélanique, car ses bases génétiques sont bien connues et il est ainsi possible d'étudier si certains gènes, de façon pléiotropique régulent à la fois la coloration et le sommeil. J'ai exploré si ce système génétique était impliqué dans la co-expression de la coloration et du sommeil. J'ai effectué mon étude sur des poussins de chouette effraie (Tyto alba) en condition naturelle, pour rechercher ce lien potentiel entre la variation de la coloration et l'ontogenèse du sommeil. Dans ce but, j'ai établi une méthodologie permettant d'enregistrer l'activité cérébrale (électroencéphalogramme) des chouettes dans la nature. Les oiseaux sont particulièrement intéressants car ils ont développé, par évolution convergente, des phases de sommeil similaires à celles des mammifères. De manière semblable à ce qui a été montré chez les mammifères, j'ai découvert que le temps passé dans le sommeil paradoxal diminue avec l'âge des poussins. On pense que ceci est dû aux changements développementaux au niveau du cerveau. Cette trajectoire développementale semble refléter une caractéristique fondamentale du sommeil. J'ai également découvert une association entre l'un des gènes impliqué dans le mélanisme, exprimé dans les follicules plumeux (proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 2, PCSK2), et les changements dans la structure du sommeil avec l'âge. Les poussins ayant un niveau d'expression génétique élevé de la PCSK2 présentent une structure du sommeil plus précoce et un taux de coloration dû à la mélanine plus élevé que des poussins avec un niveau d'expression moindre de la PCSK2. L'architecture du sommeil et le développement de la rythmicité dans le cerveau ainsi que l'activité physique sont également liés à la coloration des plumes des poussins et pourraient ainsi refléter des différences de stratégies d'histoire de vie, de comportements anti-prédateur et de vitesses développementales. Ainsi, des individus de coloration différente sembleraient traiter différemment les coûts et les bénéfices du sommeil, ce qui aurait des conséquences sur l'organisation cérébrale et pour finir, sur le succès reproducteur. Ces résultats devraient encourager les biologistes évolutionnistes à considérer le sommeil comme un important trait d'histoire de vie. Zusammenfassung Die Funktion von Schlaf ist noch unbekannt. Um mehr Einsicht in diese unter natürlichen Bedingungen zu bekommen, habe ich die Variation in der Schlafarchitektur und die Verknüpfung mit phänotypischen Merkmalen, die mit der Fitness zusammenhängen, studiert. Ich habe mir melanin-basierte Färbung angesehen, da die zugrunde liegende genetische Basis bekannt ist und somit die Möglichkeit gegeben ist, zu untersuchen, ob einige Gene beides regulieren, Färbung und Schlaf. Das melanocortin System generiert eine Kovariation zwischen melanin-basierter Färbung und anderen phänotypischer Merkmale wie Verhalten, Physiologie und Überlebensstrategien. Ich habe untersucht, ob dieses Gensystem an einer gleichzeitigen Steuerung von Färbung und Schlaf beteiligt ist. Dazu habe ich Schleiereulen (Tyto alba) studiert um einen möglichen Zusammenhang zwischen der Variation in der Pigmentierung und der Entwicklung des Schlafs unter natürlichen Bedingungen zu entdecken. Für diese Studie entwickelte ich eine Methode um die Gehirnaktivität (Elektroenzephalogramm) bei Eulen in der Natur aufzunehmen. Vögel sind besonders interessant, da sie die gleichen Schlafstadien aufweisen wie Säugetiere und diese unabhängig konvergent entwickelt haben. Genauso wie bei Säugetieren nahm die Dauer des sogenannten ,,rapid eye movement" (REM) - Schlafes mit zunehmendem Alter ab. Es wird angenommen, dass dieser Zusammenhang die Entwicklung des Gehirns widerspiegelt. Daher scheint dieses Entwicklungsmuster ein fundamentaler Aspekt von Schlaf zu sein. Zusätzlich entdeckte ich einen Zusammenhang zwischen der Aktivität eines Gens in den Federfollikeln (proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 2, PCSK2), das für die Ausprägung schwarzer Punkte auf den Federn der Eulen verantwortlich ist, und den altersabhängigen Änderungen im Schlafmuster im Gehirn. Küken mit höherer Aktivität von PCSK2 zeigten eine frühreifere Schlafentwicklung und eine dunklere Färbung als Küken mit niedriger PCSK2 Aktivität. Die Architekture des Schlafes und die Entwicklung der Rhythmik im Gehirn und die der physischen Aktivität ist mit der Färbung des Gefieders von den Küken und ihren Eltern verknüpft. Dieses Muster während der Entwicklung kann Unterschiede in Überlebensstrategien, Feindabwehrverhalten und in der Entwicklungsgeschwindigkeit reflektieren. Unterschiedlich gefärbte Individuen könnten unterschiedliche Strategien haben um zwischen den Kosten und Nutzen von Schlaf zu entscheiden, was zu Unterschieden in der Gehirnstruktur führen kann und letztendlich zur Fitness. Diese Ergebnisse sollten Evolutionsbiologen stimulieren Schlaf als einen wichtigen Bestandteil des Lebens zu behandeln.

Allergo-immunologie : 1. Dans quelles situations doit-on penser au syndrome des antiphospholipides? [When should consider antiphospholipid syndrome?]

En pratique courante, les événements thrombotiques ne sont pas rares. Dans le suivi des grossesses, les gynécologues ont souvent affaire à des pertes foetles chez leurs patientes. Jusqu'à quel point ces événements peuvent-ils être considérés comme "banals" ? Quand et sur quels critères doit-on considérer la possibilité d'un syndrome des antiphospholipides ? Des efforts ont été réalisés ces dernières années en vue de mieux codifier ce syndrome, tant sur le plan du laboratoire, que clinique. En vue d'uniformiser ces éléments, une première conférence de consensus a eu lieu en 1999 à Sapporo, avec mise à jour en 2004 à Sydney. Ces quelques lignes font le point sur les éléments nouveaux liés à la classification actuelle et sur les éléments diagnostiques en découlant, en vue de retenir le diagnostic de syndrome des antiphospholipides de manière rigoureuse, et d'initier le traitement adéquat dans les différentes situations liées à ce syndrome. In current practice, the occurrence of thrombosis--venous or arterial--is not rare. Moreover, during the follow-up of pregnancies, gynecologists often have to deal with fetal losses of their patients. Up to which point can these events be considered as "ordinary"? When and on which criteria can we consider an antiphospholipid syndrome? Efforts have been put these last years to better codify the diagnosis of this syndrome, so much on the laboratory side as on the clinical side. With a view to standardize these elements, a first consensus conference took place in 1999 in Sapporo, with an update in 2004 in Sydney, that has recently been published. The goal of these lines is to focus on new elements connected to the actual classification and on the resulting diagnosis elements, with the aim of obtaining a diagnosis of antiphospholipid syndrome in a rigorous way, and to initiate the appropriate treatment in different situations linked to this syndrome

Development of a Sensitive Resource Use Questionnaire

Alcoholism is a chronic disease and the evaluation of its burden usually focuses on long-term co-morbidity and mortality. Clinical Trials evaluating new interventions for alcohol-dependent patients rarely last more than 12 to 24 months. OBJECTIVES: Develop a questionnaire capable of capturing principal resource use yet sensitive enough to show short-term economic benefit of drugs developed to reduce consump¬tion in alcohol-dependent patients. METHODS: Comprehensive Medline literature search using keywords: Alcohol-related-disorders, economics, cost of illness. Further, experts panel discussions provided additional data. RESULTS: Two key cost drivers, hospitalisation and sick leaves were identified by the literature review. Expert findings related to costs of social consequences were incorporated. These three important resources were included in the questionnaire in addition to standard medical resource use consumption input. Finally, the following items were included: consultation visits, hospitalisations, sick leaves and working situation, living situation, social environ¬ment, accidents, arrests and domestic violence. The recall period is 3 months. DISCUSSION: A great deal of information is collected in this questionnaire in order to capture all relevant resources. Tests to validate the questionnaire in a real-life setting will be conducted (face validity, concurrent validity, and test-retest) in a cohort of dependent patients initiated at Lausanne University hospital ( Switzerland). Items not sensitive enough to capture short-term costs and consequences will be removed. Translation into other major languages and adaptation to different settings after cultural validation is planned. CONCLUSIONS: Publication of this tool should facilitate additional knowledge about resource utilisation at the patient level and enable evaluation of short-term economic impact of pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions.

Applying machine learning methods to avalanche forecasting

Avalanche forecasting is a complex process involving the assimilation of multiple data sources to make predictions over varying spatial and temporal resolutions. Numerically assisted forecasting often uses nearest neighbour methods (NN), which are known to have limitations when dealing with high dimensional data. We apply Support Vector Machines to a dataset from Lochaber, Scotland to assess their applicability in avalanche forecasting. Support Vector Machines (SVMs) belong to a family of theoretically based techniques from machine learning and are designed to deal with high dimensional data. Initial experiments showed that SVMs gave results which were comparable with NN for categorical and probabilistic forecasts. Experiments utilising the ability of SVMs to deal with high dimensionality in producing a spatial forecast show promise, but require further work.

Optimal dividend strategies for a compound Poisson risk process under transaction costs and power utility

We characterize the value function of maximizing the total discounted utility of dividend payments for a compound Poisson insurance risk model when strictly positive transaction costs are included, leading to an impulse control problem. We illustrate that well known simple strategies can be optimal in the case of exponential claim amounts. Finally we develop a numerical procedure to deal with general claim amount distributions.

Firm's network capability and innovation performance: evidences from China hi-tech industry

ABSTRACT : A firm's competitive advantage can arise from internal resources as well as from an interfirm network. -This dissertation investigates the competitive advantage of a firm involved in an innovation network by integrating strategic management theory and social network theory. It develops theory and provides empirical evidence that illustrates how a networked firm enables the network value and appropriates this value in an optimal way according to its strategic purpose. The four inter-related essays in this dissertation provide a framework that sheds light on the extraction of value from an innovation network by managing and designing the network in a proactive manner. The first essay reviews research in social network theory and knowledge transfer management, and identifies the crucial factors of innovation network configuration for a firm's learning performance or innovation output. The findings suggest that network structure, network relationship, and network position all impact on a firm's performance. Although the previous literature indicates that there are disagreements about the impact of dense or spare structure, as well as strong or weak ties, case evidence from Chinese software companies reveals that dense and strong connections with partners are positively associated with firms' performance. The second essay is a theoretical essay that illustrates the limitations of social network theory for explaining the source of network value and offers a new theoretical model that applies resource-based view to network environments. It suggests that network configurations, such as network structure, network relationship and network position, can be considered important network resources. In addition, this essay introduces the concept of network capability, and suggests that four types of network capabilities play an important role in unlocking the potential value of network resources and determining the distribution of network rents between partners. This essay also highlights the contingent effects of network capability on a firm's innovation output, and explains how the different impacts of network capability depend on a firm's strategic choices. This new theoretical model has been pre-tested with a case study of China software industry, which enhances the internal validity of this theory. The third essay addresses the questions of what impact network capability has on firm innovation performance and what are the antecedent factors of network capability. This essay employs a structural equation modelling methodology that uses a sample of 211 Chinese Hi-tech firms. It develops a measurement of network capability and reveals that networked firms deal with cooperation between, and coordination with partners on different levels according to their levels of network capability. The empirical results also suggests that IT maturity, the openness of culture, management system involved, and experience with network activities are antecedents of network capabilities. Furthermore, the two-group analysis of the role of international partner(s) shows that when there is a culture and norm gap between foreign partners, a firm must mobilize more resources and effort to improve its performance with respect to its innovation network. The fourth essay addresses the way in which network capabilities influence firm innovation performance. By using hierarchical multiple regression with data from Chinese Hi-tech firms, the findings suggest that there is a significant partial mediating effect of knowledge transfer on the relationships between network capabilities and innovation performance. The findings also reveal that the impacts of network capabilities divert with the environment and strategic decision the firm has made: exploration or exploitation. Network constructing capability provides a greater positive impact on and yields more contributions to innovation performance than does network operating capability in an exploration network. Network operating capability is more important than network constructing capability for innovative firms in an exploitation network. Therefore, these findings highlight that the firm can shape the innovation network proactively for better benefits, but when it does so, it should adjust its focus and change its efforts in accordance with its innovation purposes or strategic orientation.

The Limits of Issue Ownership Dynamics : The Constraining Effect of Party Preference

Issue ownership theory argues that when a voter considers a party to be the most competent amongst others to deal with an issue (that is, the party "owns" the issue), chances are the voter will vote for that party. Recent work has shown that perceptions of issue ownership are dynamic: they are affected by the media coverage of party messages. However, based on the broad literature on partisan bias, we predict that parties' efforts to change issue ownership perceptions will have a difficult time breaching the perceptual screen created by a voter's party preference. Using two separate experiments with a similar design we show that the effect of partisan issue messages on issue competence is moderated by party preference. The effect of issue messages is reinforced when people already like a party, and blocked when people dislike a party.

Pituitary blastoma: a pathognomonic feature of germ-line DICER1 mutations.

Individuals harboring germ-line DICER1 mutations are predisposed to a rare cancer syndrome, the DICER1 Syndrome or pleuropulmonary blastoma-familial tumor and dysplasia syndrome [online Mendelian inheritance in man (OMIM) #601200]. In addition, specific somatic mutations in the DICER1 RNase III catalytic domain have been identified in several DICER1-associated tumor types. Pituitary blastoma (PitB) was identified as a distinct entity in 2008, and is a very rare, potentially lethal early childhood tumor of the pituitary gland. Since the discovery by our team of an inherited mutation in DICER1 in a child with PitB in 2011, we have identified 12 additional PitB cases. We aimed to determine the contribution of germ-line and somatic DICER1 mutations to PitB. We hypothesized that PitB is a pathognomonic feature of a germ-line DICER1 mutation and that each PitB will harbor a second somatic mutation in DICER1. Lymphocyte or saliva DNA samples ascertained from ten infants with PitB were screened and nine were found to harbor a heterozygous germ-line DICER1 mutation. We identified additional DICER1 mutations in nine of ten tested PitB tumor samples, eight of which were confirmed to be somatic in origin. Seven of these mutations occurred within the RNase IIIb catalytic domain, a domain essential to the generation of 5p miRNAs from the 5' arm of miRNA-precursors. Germ-line DICER1 mutations are a major contributor to PitB. Second somatic DICER1 "hits" occurring within the RNase IIIb domain also appear to be critical in PitB pathogenesis.

Critical Mobilities

The field of mobility studies examines social phenomena through the lens of movement. In this perspective, societies are regarded as being constantly reconfigured as they are shaped by a series of mobile entities (capital, people, information). This book engages critically with many of the claims and challenges of mobility studies by providing empirically rich reports of mobilities and their limitations. Instead of assuming a seamless world of flows, the volume foregrounds questions of power, inequality, and moorings as integral to the movement of capital, goods, images, practices, or people. It brings together the work of several internationally renowned scholars, who engage with these movements at critical sites. This is the first book to provide a critical and interdisciplinary view of mobilities covering a broad range of issues rather than a single domain. The chapters deal with current and important issues, such as organ transplants, illegal migrations, urban globalization, international policies of higher education institutions, and scientific diasporas. As a whole, the book provides new insights into how power relations shape mobilities and societies.