A Confluence of Risks: Control and Compliance in the World of Unstructured Data, Big Data and the Cloud

The emergence of powerful new technologies, the existence of large quantities of data, and increasing demands for the extraction of added value from these technologies and data have created a number of significant challenges for those charged with both corporate and information technology management. The possibilities are great, the expectations high, and the risks significant. Organisations seeking to employ cloud technologies and exploit the value of the data to which they have access, be this in the form of "Big Data" available from different external sources or data held within the organisation, in structured or unstructured formats, need to understand the risks involved in such activities. Data owners have responsibilities towards the subjects of the data and must also, frequently, demonstrate that they are in compliance with current standards, laws and regulations. This thesis sets out to explore the nature of the technologies that organisations might utilise, identify the most pertinent constraints and risks, and propose a framework for the management of data from discovery to external hosting that will allow the most significant risks to be managed through the definition, implementation, and performance of appropriate internal control activities.

Looking for orders of magnitude : five essays in trade and the environment and economic geography

General Summary Although the chapters of this thesis address a variety of issues, the principal aim is common: test economic ideas in an international economic context. The intention has been to supply empirical findings using the largest suitable data sets and making use of the most appropriate empirical techniques. This thesis can roughly be divided into two parts: the first one, corresponding to the first two chapters, investigates the link between trade and the environment, the second one, the last three chapters, is related to economic geography issues. Environmental problems are omnipresent in the daily press nowadays and one of the arguments put forward is that globalisation causes severe environmental problems through the reallocation of investments and production to countries with less stringent environmental regulations. A measure of the amplitude of this undesirable effect is provided in the first part. The third and the fourth chapters explore the productivity effects of agglomeration. The computed spillover effects between different sectors indicate how cluster-formation might be productivity enhancing. The last chapter is not about how to better understand the world but how to measure it and it was just a great pleasure to work on it. "The Economist" writes every week about the impressive population and economic growth observed in China and India, and everybody agrees that the world's center of gravity has shifted. But by how much and how fast did it shift? An answer is given in the last part, which proposes a global measure for the location of world production and allows to visualize our results in Google Earth. A short summary of each of the five chapters is provided below. The first chapter, entitled "Unraveling the World-Wide Pollution-Haven Effect" investigates the relative strength of the pollution haven effect (PH, comparative advantage in dirty products due to differences in environmental regulation) and the factor endowment effect (FE, comparative advantage in dirty, capital intensive products due to differences in endowments). We compute the pollution content of imports using the IPPS coefficients (for three pollutants, namely biological oxygen demand, sulphur dioxide and toxic pollution intensity for all manufacturing sectors) provided by the World Bank and use a gravity-type framework to isolate the two above mentioned effects. Our study covers 48 countries that can be classified into 29 Southern and 19 Northern countries and uses the lead content of gasoline as proxy for environmental stringency. For North-South trade we find significant PH and FE effects going in the expected, opposite directions and being of similar magnitude. However, when looking at world trade, the effects become very small because of the high North-North trade share, where we have no a priori expectations about the signs of these effects. Therefore popular fears about the trade effects of differences in environmental regulations might by exaggerated. The second chapter is entitled "Is trade bad for the Environment? Decomposing worldwide SO2 emissions, 1990-2000". First we construct a novel and large database containing reasonable estimates of SO2 emission intensities per unit labor that vary across countries, periods and manufacturing sectors. Then we use these original data (covering 31 developed and 31 developing countries) to decompose the worldwide SO2 emissions into the three well known dynamic effects (scale, technique and composition effect). We find that the positive scale (+9,5%) and the negative technique (-12.5%) effect are the main driving forces of emission changes. Composition effects between countries and sectors are smaller, both negative and of similar magnitude (-3.5% each). Given that trade matters via the composition effects this means that trade reduces total emissions. We next construct, in a first experiment, a hypothetical world where no trade happens, i.e. each country produces its imports at home and does no longer produce its exports. The difference between the actual and this no-trade world allows us (under the omission of price effects) to compute a static first-order trade effect. The latter now increases total world emissions because it allows, on average, dirty countries to specialize in dirty products. However, this effect is smaller (3.5%) in 2000 than in 1990 (10%), in line with the negative dynamic composition effect identified in the previous exercise. We then propose a second experiment, comparing effective emissions with the maximum or minimum possible level of SO2 emissions. These hypothetical levels of emissions are obtained by reallocating labour accordingly across sectors within each country (under the country-employment and the world industry-production constraints). Using linear programming techniques, we show that emissions are reduced by 90% with respect to the worst case, but that they could still be reduced further by another 80% if emissions were to be minimized. The findings from this chapter go together with those from chapter one in the sense that trade-induced composition effect do not seem to be the main source of pollution, at least in the recent past. Going now to the economic geography part of this thesis, the third chapter, entitled "A Dynamic Model with Sectoral Agglomeration Effects" consists of a short note that derives the theoretical model estimated in the fourth chapter. The derivation is directly based on the multi-regional framework by Ciccone (2002) but extends it in order to include sectoral disaggregation and a temporal dimension. This allows us formally to write present productivity as a function of past productivity and other contemporaneous and past control variables. The fourth chapter entitled "Sectoral Agglomeration Effects in a Panel of European Regions" takes the final equation derived in chapter three to the data. We investigate the empirical link between density and labour productivity based on regional data (245 NUTS-2 regions over the period 1980-2003). Using dynamic panel techniques allows us to control for the possible endogeneity of density and for region specific effects. We find a positive long run elasticity of density with respect to labour productivity of about 13%. When using data at the sectoral level it seems that positive cross-sector and negative own-sector externalities are present in manufacturing while financial services display strong positive own-sector effects. The fifth and last chapter entitled "Is the World's Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?" computes the world economic, demographic and geographic center of gravity for 1975-2004 and compares them. Based on data for the largest cities in the world and using the physical concept of center of mass, we find that the world's economic center of gravity is still located in Europe, even though there is a clear shift towards Asia. To sum up, this thesis makes three main contributions. First, it provides new estimates of orders of magnitudes for the role of trade in the globalisation and environment debate. Second, it computes reliable and disaggregated elasticities for the effect of density on labour productivity in European regions. Third, it allows us, in a geometrically rigorous way, to track the path of the world's economic center of gravity.

A steroidomic approach for biomarkers discovery in doping control.

Anti-doping authorities have high expectations of the athlete steroidal passport (ASP) for anabolic-androgenic steroids misuse detection. However, it is still limited to the monitoring of known well-established compounds and might greatly benefit from the discovery of new relevant biomarkers candidates. In this context, steroidomics opens the way to the untargeted simultaneous evaluation of a high number of compounds. Analytical platforms associating the performance of ultra-high pressure liquid chromatography (UHPLC) and the high mass-resolving power of quadrupole time-of-flight (QTOF) mass spectrometers are particularly adapted for such purpose. An untargeted steroidomic approach was proposed to analyse urine samples from a clinical trial for the discovery of relevant biomarkers of testosterone undecanoate oral intake. Automatic peak detection was performed and a filter of reference steroid metabolites mass-to-charge ratio (m/z) values was applied to the raw data to ensure the selection of a subset of steroid-related features. Chemometric tools were applied for the filtering and the analysis of UHPLC-QTOF-MS(E) data. Time kinetics could be assessed with N-way projections to latent structures discriminant analysis (N-PLS-DA) and a detection window was confirmed. Orthogonal projections to latent structures discriminant analysis (O-PLS-DA) classification models were evaluated in a second step to assess the predictive power of both known metabolites and unknown compounds. A shared and unique structure plot (SUS-plot) analysis was performed to select the most promising unknown candidates and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were computed to assess specificity criteria applied in routine doping control. This approach underlined the pertinence to monitor both glucuronide and sulphate steroid conjugates and include them in the athletes passport, while promising biomarkers were also highlighted.

Les règles n'ont plus la cote: une question de contraception ou de choix [To bleed or not--a new dogma or a real choice in contraception?]

On en parle ! Il est question de la suppression des règles par l'administration de contraceptifs oestro-progestatifs (pilule, patch ou anneau vaginal) en cycles longs (cycles prolongés ; cycles étendus ; extended cycles) entraînant des périodes d'aménorrhée, rythmées par des intervalles libres de sept jours sans administration hormonale. L'indication à ce mode de prescription est presque unanimement reconnue pour le traitement des pathologies bénéficiant de la suppression des règles et des fluctuations hormonales inhérentes à l'activité ovarienne. Ce traitement suscite cependant également de l'intérêt pour une indication du type mode de vie. Les modalités thérapeutiques, les avantages et inconvénients sont examinés à la lumière de l'attente des femmes et de leur droit au choix éclairé et libre. Let's talk about it ! Suppression of menstruation, by extending the duration of contraceptives containing estro-progestins (oral contraception, patch or vaginal ring) to long cycles, is a new approach in the field of contraception. These extended cycles aim at obtaining prolonged amenorrhea, interrupted periodically by a free interval of 7 days without hormone intake and thus causing breakthrough bleeding. Pathologies, which are supposed to get some benefit from the suppression of menstruation and of hormone level variations related to ovarian activity, are widely recognized as an indication. Some interest is also coming up for so called life style indications. Treatment issues, advantages and disadvantages are examined in the light of women's expectations and right to access to informed consent and independent choice.

La médecine ambulatoire youth-friendly. [Youth-friendly outpatient care].

Ambulatory pediatric and family medicine takes care of adolescent patients, most of whom regularly consult a physician. Consultations with young people involve issues specifically related to their age. Regarding health care systems and physicians, adolescents' expectations vary from those of adults, not so much in terms of the issues discussed but in terms of the priorities that they give to them. Confidential interviews are not always proposed but are highly appreciated, as are certain personal qualities on the part of the caregivers such as honesty, respect, and friendliness. Finally, easy access to care together with the continuity of care are essential. Prevention of risk behaviors by screening and health education is clearly insufficient. This issue could be approached during the consultation through a psychosocial history. This is a good opportunity to discuss sensitive issues that adolescents seldom bring up themselves. More systematic prevention would probably decrease youth morbidity and mortality, which are both closely related to risk behaviors. To meet these expectations and special health care needs, the World Health Organization has developed the concept of youth-friendly health services. This concept can be applied in both a specialized adolescence center and a pediatric or family practice. Youth-friendly services are still rarely evaluated but seem to bring a clear benefit in terms of patient satisfaction and access to care.

On the problematic of reserving and stochastic loss models

Abstract Traditionally, the common reserving methods used by the non-life actuaries are based on the assumption that future claims are going to behave in the same way as they did in the past. There are two main sources of variability in the processus of development of the claims: the variability of the speed with which the claims are settled and the variability between the severity of the claims from different accident years. High changes in these processes will generate distortions in the estimation of the claims reserves. The main objective of this thesis is to provide an indicator which firstly identifies and quantifies these two influences and secondly to determine which model is adequate for a specific situation. Two stochastic models were analysed and the predictive distributions of the future claims were obtained. The main advantage of the stochastic models is that they provide measures of variability of the reserves estimates. The first model (PDM) combines one conjugate family Dirichlet - Multinomial with the Poisson distribution. The second model (NBDM) improves the first one by combining two conjugate families Poisson -Gamma (for distribution of the ultimate amounts) and Dirichlet Multinomial (for distribution of the incremental claims payments). It was found that the second model allows to find the speed variability in the reporting process and development of the claims severity as function of two above mentioned distributions' parameters. These are the shape parameter of the Gamma distribution and the Dirichlet parameter. Depending on the relation between them we can decide on the adequacy of the claims reserve estimation method. The parameters have been estimated by the Methods of Moments and Maximum Likelihood. The results were tested using chosen simulation data and then using real data originating from the three lines of business: Property/Casualty, General Liability, and Accident Insurance. These data include different developments and specificities. The outcome of the thesis shows that when the Dirichlet parameter is greater than the shape parameter of the Gamma, resulting in a model with positive correlation between the past and future claims payments, suggests the Chain-Ladder method as appropriate for the claims reserve estimation. In terms of claims reserves, if the cumulated payments are high the positive correlation will imply high expectations for the future payments resulting in high claims reserves estimates. The negative correlation appears when the Dirichlet parameter is lower than the shape parameter of the Gamma, meaning low expected future payments for the same high observed cumulated payments. This corresponds to the situation when claims are reported rapidly and fewer claims remain expected subsequently. The extreme case appears in the situation when all claims are reported at the same time leading to expectations for the future payments of zero or equal to the aggregated amount of the ultimate paid claims. For this latter case, the Chain-Ladder is not recommended.

Scale decisions can reverse conclusions on community assembly processes.

AIM: Phylogenetic diversity patterns are increasingly being used to better understand the role of ecological and evolutionary processes in community assembly. Here, we quantify how these patterns are influenced by scale choices in terms of spatial and environmental extent and organismic scales. LOCATION: European Alps. METHODS: We applied 42 sampling strategies differing in their combination of focal scales. For each resulting sub-dataset, we estimated the phylogenetic diversity of the species pools, phylogenetic α-diversities of local communities, and statistics commonly used together with null models in order to infer non-random diversity patterns (i.e. phylogenetic clustering versus over-dispersion). Finally, we studied the effects of scale choices on these measures using regression analyses. RESULTS: Scale choices were decisive for revealing signals in diversity patterns. Notably, changes in focal scales sometimes reversed a pattern of over-dispersion into clustering. Organismic scale had a stronger effect than spatial and environmental extent. However, we did not find general rules for the direction of change from over-dispersion to clustering with changing scales. Importantly, these scale issues had only a weak influence when focusing on regional diversity patterns that change along abiotic gradients. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Our results call for caution when combining phylogenetic data with distributional data to study how and why communities differ from random expectations of phylogenetic relatedness. These analyses seem to be robust when the focus is on relating community diversity patterns to variation in habitat conditions, such as abiotic gradients. However, if the focus is on identifying relevant assembly rules for local communities, the uncertainty arising from a certain scale choice can be immense. In the latter case, it becomes necessary to test whether emerging patterns are robust to alternative scale choices.

Modelling plant species distribution in alpine grasslands using airborne imaging spectroscopy.

Remote sensing using airborne imaging spectroscopy (AIS) is known to retrieve fundamental optical properties of ecosystems. However, the value of these properties for predicting plant species distribution remains unclear. Here, we assess whether such data can add value to topographic variables for predicting plant distributions in French and Swiss alpine grasslands. We fitted statistical models with high spectral and spatial resolution reflectance data and tested four optical indices sensitive to leaf chlorophyll content, leaf water content and leaf area index. We found moderate added-value of AIS data for predicting alpine plant species distribution. Contrary to expectations, differences between species distribution models (SDMs) were not linked to their local abundance or phylogenetic/functional similarity. Moreover, spectral signatures of species were found to be partly site-specific. We discuss current limits of AIS-based SDMs, highlighting issues of scale and informational content of AIS data.

The effect of innovation and sex-specific migration on neutral cultural differentiation

Studies of behaviour are increasingly focusing on acquisition of traits through cultural inheritance. Comparison of patterns of spatial population structure (FST) between neutral genetic loci and behavioural or cultural traits can been used to test hypotheses about demography, life history, and the mechanisms of inheritance/transmission of these traits in humans, chimpanzees and other animals. Here, we develop analytical expectations to show how FST in cultural traits can differ strongly from that measured at neutral genetic markers if migration is largely restricted to one sex but social learning is predominantly modelled on the other (e.g. males migrate, females serve as models for cultural traits), if one individual is the learning model for many, or if rates of innovation (individual learning) are high or rates of social learning are low. We discuss how comparisons of FST between genetic loci and behavioural traits can be applied to evaluate the importance of innovation in shaping patterns of cultural differentiation, as even low rates of innovation can considerably reduce FST, relative to observed structure at neutral genetic loci. Our results also suggest that differentiation in neutral cultural traits should occur over much smaller scales in species with male migration and female enculturation (or the reverse).

Visual-gustatory interaction: orbitofrontal and insular cortices mediate the effect of high-calorie visual food cues on taste pleasantness.

Vision provides a primary sensory input for food perception. It raises expectations on taste and nutritional value and drives acceptance or rejection. So far, the impact of visual food cues varying in energy content on subsequent taste integration remains unexplored. Using electrical neuroimaging, we assessed whether high- and low-calorie food cues differentially influence the brain processing and perception of a subsequent neutral electric taste. When viewing high-calorie food images, participants reported the subsequent taste to be more pleasant than when low-calorie food images preceded the identical taste. Moreover, the taste-evoked neural activity was stronger in the bilateral insula and the adjacent frontal operculum (FOP) within 100 ms after taste onset when preceded by high- versus low-calorie cues. A similar pattern evolved in the anterior cingulate (ACC) and medial orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) around 180 ms, as well as, in the right insula, around 360 ms. The activation differences in the OFC correlated positively with changes in taste pleasantness, a finding that is an accord with the role of the OFC in the hedonic evaluation of taste. Later activation differences in the right insula likely indicate revaluation of interoceptive taste awareness. Our findings reveal previously unknown mechanisms of cross-modal, visual-gustatory, sensory interactions underlying food evaluation.

Intelligence-led crime scene processing. Part II : Intelligence and crime scene examination.

A better integration of the information conveyed by traces within intelligence-led framework would allow forensic science to participate more intensively to security assessments through forensic intelligence (part I). In this view, the collection of data by examining crime scenes is an entire part of intelligence processes. This conception frames our proposal for a model that promotes to better use knowledge available in the organisation for driving and supporting crime scene examination. The suggested model also clarifies the uncomfortable situation of crime scene examiners who must simultaneously comply with justice needs and expectations, and serve organisations that are mostly driven by broader security objectives. It also opens new perspective for forensic science and crime scene investigation, by the proposal to follow other directions than the traditional path suggested by dominant movements in these fields.

The role of just world beliefs and justice perceptions in explaining undesirable attitudes and behaviors at work

Perceiving injustice is a key antecedent of a large range of undesirable employee attitudes and behaviors at work. For example, research has shown that employees who perceive their workplace as unfair are less satisfied, less committed and engage in more counterproductive behaviors. In this study, we suggest that justice motives like the belief in a just world (BJW) contribute to explaining relations between justice perceptions and undesirable behaviors. Specifically, we propose that individual differences in BJW (i.e, the belief that the world is just, where everyone is rewarded for his or her behavior) are related to work-related behaviors and attitudes by coloring perceptions of workplace fairness. We investigated our hypotheses in a survey study with 176 employees of various organizations (36% women; mean tenure 12.3 yeares). Results showed that after controlling for other influencing factors (e.g., neuroticism) BJW was negatively related to self-reported work deviant behaviors and to cynical, disillusioned attitudes toward the current job. Moreover, BJW was positively related to overall job satisfaction. Consistent with our expectations, relations of BJW with deviant behaviors and with attitudes were mediated by perceptions of interactional and procedural justice. These results suggest extending models of justice and deviance by including motives such as BJW.

Very high-resolution environmental predictors in species distribution models: moving beyond topography?

Recent advances in remote sensing technologies have facilitated the generation of very high resolution (VHR) environmental data. Exploratory studies suggested that, if used in species distribution models (SDMs), these data should enable modelling species' micro-habitats and allow improving predictions for fine-scale biodiversity management. In the present study, we tested the influence, in SDMs, of predictors derived from a VHR digital elevation model (DEM) by comparing the predictive power of models for 239 plant species and their assemblages fitted at six different resolutions in the Swiss Alps. We also tested whether changes of the model quality for a species is related to its functional and ecological characteristics. Refining the resolution only contributed to slight improvement of the models for more than half of the examined species, with the best results obtained at 5 m, but no significant improvement was observed, on average, across all species. Contrary to our expectations, we could not consistently correlate the changes in model performance with species characteristics such as vegetation height. Temperature, the most important variable in the SDMs across the different resolutions, did not contribute any substantial improvement. Our results suggest that improving resolution of topographic data only is not sufficient to improve SDM predictions - and therefore local management - compared to previously used resolutions (here 25 and 100 m). More effort should be dedicated now to conduct finer-scale in-situ environmental measurements (e.g. for temperature, moisture, snow) to obtain improved environmental measurements for fine-scale species mapping and management.

Assessing small non-zero perceptions of chance: The case of H1N1 (swine) flu risks

Feelings of invulnerability, seen in judgments of 0% risk, can reflect misunderstandings of risk and risk behaviors, suggesting increased need for risk communication. However, judgments of 0% risk may be given by individuals who feel invulnerable, and by individuals who are rounding from small non-zero probabilities. We examined the effect of allowing participants to give more precise responses in the 0-1% range on the validity of reported probability judgments. Participants assessed probabilities for getting H1N1 influenza and dying from it conditional on infection, using a 0-100% visual linear scale. Those responding in the 0-1% range received a follow-up question with more options in that range. This two-step procedure reduced the use of 0% and increased the resolution of responses in the 0-1% range. Moreover, revised probability responses improved predictions of attitudes and self-reported behaviors. Hence, our two-step procedure allows for more precise and more valid measurement of perceived invulnerability. [Authors]

Cross-cultural clinical competence and post-graduate teaching: any impact(s) on doctors?

Context: Cross-cultural clinical competence (CCC) requires a mixtureof "knowledge" (K), "attitude" (A) and "skills" (S), in order to develop theability to give quality care to patients of different cultures. Theseattributes allow, while providing medical care, consideration of thepatient's medical, social, cultural and language needs. The LausanneUniversity Medical Policlinic (PMU) provides approximately 30000consultations per year to migrant patients and over the past five yearshas implemented a training course on CCC that focuses on trialogue,stereotypes and administrative procedures for the healthcare ofmigrants.Method: A quantitative survey of 18 new residents, was carried outusing a validated questionnaire, the "Multicultural AssessmentQuestionnaire" (the MAQ, 16 questions on K, A and S) to evaluate theimpact of CCC training. The questionnaire was distributed before theCCC course (J-1), three days after (J+3) and three months later (J+90).A descriptive univariate analysis of the difference in MAQ scoresbetween the times J-1 - J+3 and J-1 - J+90 was made. Three FocusGroups were conducted, at three months, to explore residents' thoughtsabout the course.Results: A significant increase was observed in global performancedeclared by residents. Following the intervention, the score of the MAQincreased from 31.4 points to 38.0 points at three days (p = 0.004) andto 37.7 points at three months (p = 0.003). This increase was mostnoticeable in the field of acquiring K: total score J-1: 118, J+3: 189,J+90: 190 (difference J-1 - J+3 and J-1 - J+90: p <0.005). There was nosignificant difference in acquiring A (J-1: 222, J+3: 228, J+90: 229), andS increases in a significant way at first (J-1: 222, J+3: 265, J-1 - J+3:p = 0.035), then comes back to the start value (J+90: 217). The residentswere interested by the course which they felt provides useful informationfor clinical practice. They had a great number of expectations in varyingfields (medical anthropology, cultural differences, epidemiology, etc.),hoping a "ready-made" solution for the approach of migrant patients.Conclusions: A unique training of CCC at the post-graduate level,upgraded K, and to a lesser extent A and S, for these 18 residents. Theywere interest and they had many expectations. Subsequent coursesshould consolidate these acquisitions. Future study should demonstratethe impact on patients' clinical outcome.