Estimation du degré de couverture d'un registre pour les cancers notifiés au décès [Evaluation of the comprehensiveness of a cancer register from death certificates].

The comparison of cancer prevalence with cancer mortality can lead under some hypotheses to an estimate of registration rate. A method is proposed, where the cases with cancer as a cause of death are divided into 3 categories: (1) cases already known by the registry (2) unknown cases having occured before the registry creation date (3) unknown cases occuring during the registry operates. The estimate is then the number of cases in the first category divided by the total of those in categories 1 and 3 (these only are to be registered). An application is performed on the data of the Canton de Vaud. Survival rates of the Norvegian Cancer Registry are used for computing the number of unknown cases to be included in second and third category, respectively. The discussion focusses on the possible determinants of the obtained comprehensiveness rates for various cancer sites.

The estimation of PMP and PMF on alpine basins in Switzerland

This paper presents a very fine grid hydrological model based on the spatiotemporal repartition of precipitation and on the topography. The goal is to estimate the flood on a catchment area, using a Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) leading to a Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). The spatiotemporal distribution of the precipitation was realized using six clouds modeled by the advection-diffusion equation. The equation shows the movement of the clouds over the terrain and also gives the evolution of the rain intensity in time. This hydrological modeling is followed by a hydraulic modeling of the surface and subterranean flows, done considering the factors that contribute to the hydrological cycle, such as the infiltration, the exfiltration and the snowmelt. This model was applied to several Swiss basins using measured rain, with results showing a good correlation between the simulated and observed flows. This good correlation proves that the model is valid and gives us the confidence that the results can be extrapolated to phenomena of extreme rainfall of PMP type. In this article we present some results obtained using a PMP rainfall and the developed model.

Limitations and information needs for engineered nanomaterial-specific exposure estimation and scenarios: recommendations for improved reporting practices

The aim of this paper is to describe the process and challenges in building exposure scenarios for engineered nanomaterials (ENM), using an exposure scenario format similar to that used for the European Chemicals regulation (REACH). Over 60 exposure scenarios were developed based on information from publicly available sources (literature, books, and reports), publicly available exposure estimation models, occupational sampling campaign data from partnering institutions, and industrial partners regarding their own facilities. The primary focus was on carbon-based nanomaterials, nano-silver (nano-Ag) and nano-titanium dioxide (nano-TiO2), and included occupational and consumer uses of these materials with consideration of the associated environmental release. The process of building exposure scenarios illustrated the availability and limitations of existing information and exposure assessment tools for characterizing exposure to ENM, particularly as it relates to risk assessment. This article describes the gaps in the information reviewed, recommends future areas of ENM exposure research, and proposes types of information that should, at a minimum, be included when reporting the results of such research, so that the information is useful in a wider context.

Estimation of a maximum Lu diffusion rate in a natural eclogite garnet

Lutetium zoning in garnet within eclogites from the Zermatt-Saas Fee zone, Western Alps, reveal sharp, exponentially decreasing central peaks. They can be used to constrain maximum Lu volume diffusion in garnets. A prograde garnet growth temperature interval of 450-600 A degrees C has been estimated based on pseudosection calculations and garnet-clinopyroxene thermometry. The maximum pre-exponential diffusion coefficient which fits the measured central peak is in the order of D-0= 5.7*10(-6) m(2)/s, taking an estimated activation energy of 270 kJ/mol based on diffusion experiments for other rare earth elements in garnet. This corresponds to a maximum diffusion rate of D (600 A degrees C) = 4.0*10(-22) m(2)/s. The diffusion estimate of Lu can be used to estimate the minimum closure temperature, T-c, for Sm-Nd and Lu-Hf age data that have been obtained in eclogites of the Western Alps, postulating, based on a literature review, that D (Hf) < D (Nd) < D (Sm) a parts per thousand currency sign D (Lu). T-c calculations, using the Dodson equation, yielded minimum closure temperatures of about 630 A degrees C, assuming a rapid initial exhumation rate of 50A degrees/m.y., and an average crystal size of garnets (r = 1 mm). This suggests that Sm/Nd and Lu/Hf isochron age differences in eclogites from the Western Alps, where peak temperatures did rarely exceed 600 A degrees C must be interpreted in terms of prograde metamorphism.

Muscle moment-arms: a key element in muscle-force estimation.

A clear and rigorous definition of muscle moment-arms in the context of musculoskeletal systems modelling is presented, using classical mechanics and screw theory. The definition provides an alternative to the tendon excursion method, which can lead to incorrect moment-arms if used inappropriately due to its dependency on the choice of joint coordinates. The definition of moment-arms, and the presented construction method, apply to musculoskeletal models in which the bones are modelled as rigid bodies, the joints are modelled as ideal mechanical joints and the muscles are modelled as massless, frictionless cables wrapping over the bony protrusions, approximated using geometric surfaces. In this context, the definition is independent of any coordinate choice. It is then used to solve a muscle-force estimation problem for a simple 2D conceptual model and compared with an incorrect application of the tendon excursion method. The relative errors between the two solutions vary between 0% and 100%.

Predictive analysis and mapping of indoor radon concentrations in a complex environment using kernel estimation: an application to Switzerland.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to develop models based on kernel regression and probability estimation in order to predict and map IRC in Switzerland by taking into account all of the following: architectural factors, spatial relationships between the measurements, as well as geological information. METHODS: We looked at about 240,000 IRC measurements carried out in about 150,000 houses. As predictor variables we included: building type, foundation type, year of construction, detector type, geographical coordinates, altitude, temperature and lithology into the kernel estimation models. We developed predictive maps as well as a map of the local probability to exceed 300 Bq/m(3). Additionally, we developed a map of a confidence index in order to estimate the reliability of the probability map. RESULTS: Our models were able to explain 28% of the variations of IRC data. All variables added information to the model. The model estimation revealed a bandwidth for each variable, making it possible to characterize the influence of each variable on the IRC estimation. Furthermore, we assessed the mapping characteristics of kernel estimation overall as well as by municipality. Overall, our model reproduces spatial IRC patterns which were already obtained earlier. On the municipal level, we could show that our model accounts well for IRC trends within municipal boundaries. Finally, we found that different building characteristics result in different IRC maps. Maps corresponding to detached houses with concrete foundations indicate systematically smaller IRC than maps corresponding to farms with earth foundation. CONCLUSIONS: IRC mapping based on kernel estimation is a powerful tool to predict and analyze IRC on a large-scale as well as on a local level. This approach enables to develop tailor-made maps for different architectural elements and measurement conditions and to account at the same time for geological information and spatial relations between IRC measurements.

Active deformation fields: dense deformation field estimation for atlas-based segmentation using the active contour framework.

This paper presents a new and original variational framework for atlas-based segmentation. The proposed framework integrates both the active contour framework, and the dense deformation fields of optical flow framework. This framework is quite general and encompasses many of the state-of-the-art atlas-based segmentation methods. It also allows to perform the registration of atlas and target images based on only selected structures of interest. The versatility and potentiality of the proposed framework are demonstrated by presenting three diverse applications: In the first application, we show how the proposed framework can be used to simulate the growth of inconsistent structures like a tumor in an atlas. In the second application, we estimate the position of nonvisible brain structures based on the surrounding structures and validate the results by comparing with other methods. In the final application, we present the segmentation of lymph nodes in the Head and Neck CT images, and demonstrate how multiple registration forces can be used in this framework in an hierarchical manner.

Effects of computing parameters and measurement locations on the estimation of 3D NPS in non-stationary MDCT images.

The goal of this study was to investigate the impact of computing parameters and the location of volumes of interest (VOI) on the calculation of 3D noise power spectrum (NPS) in order to determine an optimal set of computing parameters and propose a robust method for evaluating the noise properties of imaging systems. Noise stationarity in noise volumes acquired with a water phantom on a 128-MDCT and a 320-MDCT scanner were analyzed in the spatial domain in order to define locally stationary VOIs. The influence of the computing parameters in the 3D NPS measurement: the sampling distances bx,y,z and the VOI lengths Lx,y,z, the number of VOIs NVOI and the structured noise were investigated to minimize measurement errors. The effect of the VOI locations on the NPS was also investigated. Results showed that the noise (standard deviation) varies more in the r-direction (phantom radius) than z-direction plane. A 25 × 25 × 40 mm(3) VOI associated with DFOV = 200 mm (Lx,y,z = 64, bx,y = 0.391 mm with 512 × 512 matrix) and a first-order detrending method to reduce structured noise led to an accurate NPS estimation. NPS estimated from off centered small VOIs had a directional dependency contrary to NPS obtained from large VOIs located in the center of the volume or from small VOIs located on a concentric circle. This showed that the VOI size and location play a major role in the determination of NPS when images are not stationary. This study emphasizes the need for consistent measurement methods to assess and compare image quality in CT.

Bone mineral density (BMD), micro-architecture estimation (TBS) and vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) extracted from a single DXA device in combination with clinical risk factors improve significantly the identification of women at high risk of fracture.

Osteoporosis (OP) is a systemic skeletal disease characterized by a low bone mineral density (BMD) and a micro-architectural (MA) deterioration. Clinical risk factors (CRF) are often used as a MA approximation. MA is yet evaluable in daily practice by the trabecular bone score (TBS) measure. TBS is very simple to obtain, by reanalyzing a lumbar DXA-scan. TBS has proven to have diagnosis and prognosis values, partially independent of CRF and BMD. The aim of the OsteoLaus cohort is to combine in daily practice the CRF and the information given by DXA (BMD, TBS and vertebral fracture assessment (VFA)) to better identify women at high fracture risk. The OsteoLaus cohort (1400 women 50 to 80 years living in Lausanne, Switzerland) started in 2010. This study is derived from the cohort COLAUS who started in Lausanne in 2003. The main goal of COLAUS is to obtain information on the epidemiology and genetic determinants of cardiovascular risk in 6700 men and women. CRF for OP, bone ultrasound of the heel, lumbar spine and hip BMD, VFA by DXA and MA evaluation by TBS are recorded in OsteoLaus. Preliminary results are reported. We included 631 women: mean age 67.4 ± 6.7 years, BMI 26.1 ± 4.6, mean lumbar spine BMD 0.943 ± 0.168 (T-score − 1.4 SD), and TBS 1.271 ± 0.103. As expected, correlation between BMD and site matched TBS is low (r2 = 0.16). Prevalence of VFx grade 2/3, major OP Fx and all OP Fx is 8.4%, 17.0% and 26.0% respectively. Age- and BMI-adjusted ORs (per SD decrease) are 1.8 (1.2-2.5), 1.6 (1.2-2.1), and 1.3 (1.1-1.6) for BMD for the different categories of fractures and 2.0 (1.4-3.0), 1.9 (1.4-2.5), and 1.4 (1.1-1.7) for TBS respectively. Only 32 to 37% of women with OP Fx have a BMD < − 2.5 SD or a TBS < 1.200. If we combine a BMD < − 2.5 SD or a TBS < 1.200, 54 to 60% of women with an osteoporotic Fx are identified. As in the already published studies, these preliminary results confirm the partial independence between BMD and TBS. More importantly, a combination of TBS subsequent to BMD increases significantly the identification of women with prevalent OP Fx which would have been misclassified by BMD alone. For the first time we are able to have complementary information about fracture (VFA), density (BMD), micro- and macro architecture (TBS and HAS) from a simple, low ionizing radiation and cheap device: DXA. Such complementary information is very useful for the patient in the daily practice and moreover will likely have an impact on cost effectiveness analysis.

Accuracy of indirect estimation of power output from uphill performance in cycling.

PURPOSE: To use measurement by cycling power meters (Pmes) to evaluate the accuracy of commonly used models for estimating uphill cycling power (Pest). Experiments were designed to explore the influence of wind speed and steepness of climb on accuracy of Pest. The authors hypothesized that the random error in Pest would be largely influenced by the windy conditions, the bias would be diminished in steeper climbs, and windy conditions would induce larger bias in Pest. METHODS: Sixteen well-trained cyclists performed 15 uphill-cycling trials (range: length 1.3-6.3 km, slope 4.4-10.7%) in a random order. Trials included different riding position in a group (lead or follow) and different wind speeds. Pmes was quantified using a power meter, and Pest was calculated with a methodology used by journalists reporting on the Tour de France. RESULTS: Overall, the difference between Pmes and Pest was -0.95% (95%CI: -10.4%, +8.5%) for all trials and 0.24% (-6.1%, +6.6%) in conditions without wind (<2 m/s). The relationship between percent slope and the error between Pest and Pmes were considered trivial. CONCLUSIONS: Aerodynamic drag (affected by wind velocity and orientation, frontal area, drafting, and speed) is the most confounding factor. The mean estimated values are close to the power-output values measured by power meters, but the random error is between ±6% and ±10%. Moreover, at the power outputs (>400 W) produced by professional riders, this error is likely to be higher. This observation calls into question the validity of releasing individual values without reporting the range of random errors.

Commentary : beyond vague causal effect estimation of obesity on health outcomes

In the current issue of epidemiology, Danaei and colleagues elegantly estimated both the direct effect and the indirect effect-that is, the effect mediated by blood pressure, cholesterol, glucose, fibrinogen, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein-of body mass index (BMI) on the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). they analyzed data from 9 cohort studies including 58,322 patients and 9459 CHD events, with baseline measurements between 1954 and 2001. Using sophisticated and cutting-edge methods for direct and indirect effect estimations, the authors estimated that half of the risk of overweight and obesity would be mediated by blood pressure, cholesterol, and glucose. Few additional percentage points of the risk would be mediated by fibrinogen and hs-CRP. How should we understand these estimates? Can we say that if obese persons reduce their body weight and reach a normal body weight, their excess risk of CHD would be reduced by half through an improvement in these mediators and by half through the reduction in BmI itself? Is that also true if these individuals are prevented from becoming obese in the first place? Can we also conclude that if these mediators are well controlled in obese individuals through other means than a body weight reduction, their excess risk of CHD would be reduced by half? Let us confront these estimates with observations from studies evaluating 2 interventions to reduce body weight, that is, bariatric surgery in patients with severe obesity and intensive lifestyle intervention in overweight patients with diabetes