Accuracy of indirect estimation of power output from uphill performance in cycling.

PURPOSE: To use measurement by cycling power meters (Pmes) to evaluate the accuracy of commonly used models for estimating uphill cycling power (Pest). Experiments were designed to explore the influence of wind speed and steepness of climb on accuracy of Pest. The authors hypothesized that the random error in Pest would be largely influenced by the windy conditions, the bias would be diminished in steeper climbs, and windy conditions would induce larger bias in Pest. METHODS: Sixteen well-trained cyclists performed 15 uphill-cycling trials (range: length 1.3-6.3 km, slope 4.4-10.7%) in a random order. Trials included different riding position in a group (lead or follow) and different wind speeds. Pmes was quantified using a power meter, and Pest was calculated with a methodology used by journalists reporting on the Tour de France. RESULTS: Overall, the difference between Pmes and Pest was -0.95% (95%CI: -10.4%, +8.5%) for all trials and 0.24% (-6.1%, +6.6%) in conditions without wind (<2 m/s). The relationship between percent slope and the error between Pest and Pmes were considered trivial. CONCLUSIONS: Aerodynamic drag (affected by wind velocity and orientation, frontal area, drafting, and speed) is the most confounding factor. The mean estimated values are close to the power-output values measured by power meters, but the random error is between ±6% and ±10%. Moreover, at the power outputs (>400 W) produced by professional riders, this error is likely to be higher. This observation calls into question the validity of releasing individual values without reporting the range of random errors.

Facilitatory and interfering effects of neighbourhood density on speech production: Evidence from aphasic errors.

In a system where tens of thousands of words are made up of a limited number of phonemes, many words are bound to sound alike. This similarity of the words in the lexicon as characterized by phonological neighbourhood density (PhND) has been shown to affect speed and accuracy of word comprehension and production. Whereas there is a consensus about the interfering nature of neighbourhood effects in comprehension, the language production literature offers a more contradictory picture with mainly facilitatory but also interfering effects reported on word production. Here we report both of these two types of effects in the same study. Multiple regression mixed models analyses were conducted on PhND effects on errors produced in a naming task by a group of 21 participants with aphasia. These participants produced more formal errors (interfering effect) for words in dense phonological neighbourhoods, but produced fewer nonwords and semantic errors (a facilitatory effect) with increasing density. In order to investigate the nature of these opposite effects of PhND, we further analysed a subset of formal errors and nonword errors by distinguishing errors differing on a single phoneme from the target (corresponding to the definition of phonological neighbours) from those differing on two or more phonemes. This analysis confirmed that only formal errors that were phonological neighbours of the target increased in dense neighbourhoods, while all other errors decreased. Based on additional observations favouring a lexical origin of these formal errors (they exceeded the probability of producing a real-word error by chance, were of a higher frequency, and preserved the grammatical category of the targets), we suggest that the interfering effect of PhND is due to competition between lexical neighbours and target words in dense neighbourhoods.

The Effect of Tax Revenue Budgeting Errors on Fiscal Balance : Evidence from Swiss cantons

This study is an empirical analysis of the impact of direct tax revenue budgeting errors on fiscal deficits. Using panel data from 26 Swiss cantons between 1980 and 2002, we estimate a single equation model on the fiscal balance, as well as a simultaneous equation model on revenue and expenditure. We use new data on budgeted and actual tax revenue to show that underestimating tax revenue significantly reduces fiscal deficits. Furthermore, we show that this effect is channeled through decreased expenditure. The effects of over and underestimation turn out to be symmetric.

Associations of baroreflex sensitivity, heart rate variability, and initial orthostatic hypotension with prenatal and recent postnatal methylmercury exposure in the Seychelles Child Development Study at age 19 years.

BACKGROUND: A few studies have suggested an association between prenatal exposure to methylmercury and decreased heart rate variability (HRV) related to autonomic heart function, but no study has examined this association using baroreflex sensitivity (BRS). In this study we assessed the distribution of BRS and immediate orthostatic hypotension (IOH) in young Seychellois adults and their associations with exposure to prenatal and recent postnatal methylmercury. METHODS: Subjects in the Seychelles Child Development Study (SCDS) main cohort were evaluated at age 19 years. Non-invasive beat-to-beat blood pressure (BP) monitoring (Finapres, Ohmeda) was performed at rest and during active standing in 95 consecutive subjects. Recent postnatal mercury exposure was measured in subjects' hair at the age of 19 years and prenatal exposure in maternal hair grown during pregnancy. BRS was estimated by sequence analysis to identify spontaneous ascending and descending BP ramps. HRV was estimated by the following markers: PNN50 (relative numbers of normal-to-normal intervals which are shorter by more than 50 ms than the immediately following normal-to-normal intervals); rMSSD (root mean of the squared sum of successive interval differences); LF/HF (low frequency/high frequency component ratio); ratio of the mean expiratory/inspiratory RR intervals (EI ratio); and the ratio between the longest RR interval 30 s after active standing and the shortest RR interval at 15 s (Max30/Min15). IOH was estimated by the deepest BP fall within the first 15 s after active standing up. RESULTS: Prenatal MeHg exposures were similar in boys and girls (6.7±4.3, 6.7±3.8 ng/g) but recent postnatal mercury levels were higher in males than females (11.2±5.8 vs 7.9±4.3 ng/g, p=0.003). Markers of autonomic heart rate control were within the normal range (BRS: 24.8±7 ms/mm Hg, PNN50: 24.9±6.8%, rMSSD: 68±22, LF/HF: 0.61±0.28) in both sexes. After standing, 51.4% of subjects had a transient systolic BP drop>40 mm Hg, but only 5.3% reported dizziness or had syncope. Prenatal and recent postnatal MeHg levels, overall, were not associated with BRS, E/I ratio, PNN50, rMSSD, LF/HF ratio, Max30/Min15 ratio, and IOH. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides no support for the hypothesis that prenatal or recent postnatal MeHg exposure from fish consumption is associated with impaired autonomic heart rate control.

Two-dimensional probabilistic inversion of plane-wave electromagnetic data: Methodology, model constraints and joint inversion with electrical resistivity data

Probabilistic inversion methods based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation are well suited to quantify parameter and model uncertainty of nonlinear inverse problems. Yet, application of such methods to CPU-intensive forward models can be a daunting task, particularly if the parameter space is high dimensional. Here, we present a 2-D pixel-based MCMC inversion of plane-wave electromagnetic (EM) data. Using synthetic data, we investigate how model parameter uncertainty depends on model structure constraints using different norms of the likelihood function and the model constraints, and study the added benefits of joint inversion of EM and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data. Our results demonstrate that model structure constraints are necessary to stabilize the MCMC inversion results of a highly discretized model. These constraints decrease model parameter uncertainty and facilitate model interpretation. A drawback is that these constraints may lead to posterior distributions that do not fully include the true underlying model, because some of its features exhibit a low sensitivity to the EM data, and hence are difficult to resolve. This problem can be partly mitigated if the plane-wave EM data is augmented with ERT observations. The hierarchical Bayesian inverse formulation introduced and used herein is able to successfully recover the probabilistic properties of the measurement data errors and a model regularization weight. Application of the proposed inversion methodology to field data from an aquifer demonstrates that the posterior mean model realization is very similar to that derived from a deterministic inversion with similar model constraints.

Robust Estimates of the Negative Binomial Model

We consider robust parametric procedures for univariate discrete distributions, focusing on the negative binomial model. The procedures are based on three steps: ?First, a very robust, but possibly inefficient, estimate of the model parameters is computed. ?Second, this initial model is used to identify outliers, which are then removed from the sample. ?Third, a corrected maximum likelihood estimator is computed with the remaining observations. The final estimate inherits the breakdown point (bdp) of the initial one and its efficiency can be significantly higher. Analogous procedures were proposed in [1], [2], [5] for the continuous case. A comparison of the asymptotic bias of various estimates under point contamination points out the minimum Neyman's chi-squared disparity estimate as a good choice for the initial step. Various minimum disparity estimators were explored by Lindsay [4], who showed that the minimum Neyman's chi-squared estimate has a 50% bdp under point contamination; in addition, it is asymptotically fully efficient at the model. However, the finite sample efficiency of this estimate under the uncontaminated negative binomial model is usually much lower than 100% and the bias can be strong. We show that its performance can then be greatly improved using the three step procedure outlined above. In addition, we compare the final estimate with the procedure described in

Erreurs innées du métabolisme: transition enfant-adulte [Inborn errors of metabolism: transition from childhood to adulthood].

Les erreurs innées du métabolisme (EIM) sont dues à des mutations de gènes codant pour des enzymes du métabolisme et sont classées selon trois grands groupes de maladies: 1) intoxications; 2) déficit énergétique et 3) déficit de synthèse ou catabolisme des maladies complexes. Le progrès thérapeutique des vingt dernières années a permis d'améliorer le pronostic des enfants atteints d'EIM. Ces enfants grandissent et doivent être pris en charge à l'adolescence et à l'âge adulte par des équipes spécialisées. Cette médecine métabolique pour adultes est une discipline relativement nouvelle avec une information limitée chez l'adulte. Les recommandations pédiatriques sont extrapolées à la prise en charge des adultes tout en intégrant les différentes étapes de vie (indépendance sociale, grossesse, vieillissement et éventuelles complications tardives). Inborn errors of metabolism (IEM) are due to mutations of genes coding for enzymes of intermediary metabolism and are classified into 3 broad categories: 1) intoxication, 2) energy defect and 3) cellular organelles synthesis or catabolism defect. Improvements of therapy over these last 20 years has improved prognosis of children with IEM. These children grow up and should have their transition to specialized adult care. Adult patients with IEM are a relatively new phenomenon with currently only limited knowledge. Extrapolated pediatric guidelines are applied to the adult population taking into account adult life stages (social independence, pregnancy, aging process and potential long-term complications).

Neural synchrony indexes impaired motor slowing after errors and novelty following white matter damage.

In humans, action errors and perceptual novelty elicit activity in a shared frontostriatal brain network, allowing them to adapt their ongoing behavior to such unexpected action outcomes. Healthy and pathologic aging reduces the integrity of white matter pathways that connect individual hubs of such networks and can impair the associated cognitive functions. Here, we investigated whether structural disconnection within this network because of small-vessel disease impairs the neural processes that subserve motor slowing after errors and novelty (post-error slowing, PES; post-novel slowing, PNS). Participants with intact frontostriatal circuitry showed increased right-lateralized beta-band (12-24 Hz) synchrony between frontocentral and frontolateral electrode sites in the electroencephalogram after errors and novelty, indexing increased neural communication. Importantly, this synchrony correlated with PES and PNS across participants. Furthermore, such synchrony was reduced in participants with frontostriatal white matter damage, in line with reduced PES and PNS. The results demonstrate that behavioral change after errors and novelty result from coordinated neural activity across a frontostriatal brain network and that such cognitive control is impaired by reduced white matter integrity.