Uncertainty Quantification Of A Semi-Supervised Support Vector Regression Reservoir Model

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. Recent advances in machine learning offer a novel approach to model spatial distribution of petrophysical properties in complex reservoirs alternative to geostatistics. The approach is based of semisupervised learning, which handles both ?labelled? observed data and ?unlabelled? data, which have no measured value but describe prior knowledge and other relevant data in forms of manifolds in the input space where the modelled property is continuous. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic geological features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. On the other hand, it is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity of high permeability geo-bodies, which is often difficult in contemporary petroleum reservoir studies. Semi-supervised SVR as a data driven algorithm is designed to integrate various kind of conditioning information and learn dependences from it. The semi-supervised SVR model is able to balance signal/noise levels and control the prior belief in available data. In this work, stochastic semi-supervised SVR geomodel is integrated into Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty of reservoir production with multiple models fitted to past dynamic observations (production history). Multiple history matched models are obtained using stochastic sampling and/or MCMC-based inference algorithms, which evaluate posterior probability distribution. Uncertainty of the model is described by posterior probability of the model parameters that represent key geological properties: spatial correlation size, continuity strength, smoothness/variability of spatial property distribution. The developed approach is illustrated with a fluvial reservoir case. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes. The paper compares the performance of the models with different combinations of unknown parameters and discusses sensitivity issues.

Evolutionary simulations to detect functional lineage-specific genes.

MOTIVATION: Supporting the functionality of recent duplicate gene copies is usually difficult, owing to high sequence similarity between duplicate counterparts and shallow phylogenies, which hamper both the statistical and experimental inference. RESULTS: We developed an integrated evolutionary approach to identify functional duplicate gene copies and other lineage-specific genes. By repeatedly simulating neutral evolution, our method estimates the probability that an ORF was selectively conserved and is therefore likely to represent a bona fide coding region. In parallel, our method tests whether the accumulation of non-synonymous substitutions reveals signatures of selective constraint. We show that our approach has high power to identify functional lineage-specific genes using simulated and real data. For example, a coding region of average length (approximately 1400 bp), restricted to hominoids, can be predicted to be functional in approximately 94-100% of cases. Notably, the method may support functionality for instances where classical selection tests based on the ratio of non-synonymous to synonymous substitutions fail to reveal signatures of selection. Our method is available as an automated tool, ReEVOLVER, which will also be useful to systematically detect functional lineage-specific genes of closely related species on a large scale. AVAILABILITY: ReEVOLVER is available at http://www.unil.ch/cig/page7858.html.

Turnover and accumulation of genetic diversity across large time-scale cycles of isolation and connection of populations.

Major climatic and geological events but also population history (secondary contacts) have generated cycles of population isolation and connection of long and short periods. Recent empirical and theoretical studies suggest that fast evolutionary processes might be triggered by such events, as commonly illustrated in ecology by the adaptive radiation of cichlid fishes (isolation and reconnection of lakes and watersheds) and in epidemiology by the fast adaptation of the influenza virus (isolation and reconnection in hosts). We test whether cyclic population isolation and connection provide the raw material (standing genetic variation) for species evolution and diversification. Our analytical results demonstrate that population isolation and connection can provide, to populations, a high excess of genetic diversity compared with what is expected at equilibrium. This excess is either cyclic (high allele turnover) or cumulates with time depending on the duration of the isolation and the connection periods and the mutation rate. We show that diversification rates of animal clades are associated with specific periods of climatic cycles in the Quaternary. We finally discuss the importance of our results for macroevolutionary patterns and for the inference of population history from genomic data.

Discovery of catalases in members of the Chlamydiales order.

Catalase is an important virulence factor for survival in macrophages and other phagocytic cells. In Chlamydiaceae, no catalase had been described so far. With the sequencing and annotation of the full genomes of Chlamydia-related bacteria, the presence of different catalase-encoding genes has been documented. However, their distribution in the Chlamydiales order and the functionality of these catalases remain unknown. Phylogeny of chlamydial catalases was inferred using MrBayes, maximum likelihood, and maximum parsimony algorithms, allowing the description of three clade 3 and two clade 2 catalases. Only monofunctional catalases were found (no catalase-peroxidase or Mn-catalase). All presented a conserved catalytic domain and tertiary structure. Enzymatic activity of cloned chlamydial catalases was assessed by measuring hydrogen peroxide degradation. The catalases are enzymatically active with different efficiencies. The catalase of Parachlamydia acanthamoebae is the least efficient of all (its catalytic activity was 2 logs lower than that of Pseudomonas aeruginosa). Based on the phylogenetic analysis, we hypothesize that an ancestral class 2 catalase probably was present in the common ancestor of all current Chlamydiales but was retained only in Criblamydia sequanensis and Neochlamydia hartmannellae. The catalases of class 3, present in Estrella lausannensis and Parachlamydia acanthamoebae, probably were acquired by lateral gene transfer from Rhizobiales, whereas for Waddlia chondrophila they likely originated from Legionellales or Actinomycetales. The acquisition of catalases on several occasions in the Chlamydiales suggests the importance of this enzyme for the bacteria in their host environment.

Positive feedback in the transition from sexual reproduction to parthenogenesis.

Understanding how new phenotypes evolve is challenging because intermediate stages in transitions from ancestral to derived phenotypes often remain elusive. Here we describe and evaluate a new mechanism facilitating the transition from sexual reproduction to parthenogenesis. In many sexually reproducing species, a small proportion of unfertilized eggs can hatch spontaneously ('tychoparthenogenesis') and develop into females. Using an analytical model, we show that if females are mate-limited, tychoparthenogenesis can result in the loss of males through a positive feedback mechanism whereby tychoparthenogenesis generates female-biased sex ratios and increasing mate limitation. As a result, the strength of selection for tychoparthenogenesis increases in concert with the proportion of tychoparthenogenetic offspring in the sexual population. We then tested the hypothesis that mate limitation selects for tychoparthenogenesis and generates female-biased sex ratios, using data from natural populations of sexually reproducing Timema stick insects. Across 41 populations, both the tychoparthenogenesis rates and the proportions of females increased exponentially as the density of individuals decreased, consistent with the idea that low densities of individuals result in mate limitation and selection for reproductive insurance through tychoparthenogenesis. Our model and data from Timema populations provide evidence for a simple mechanism through which parthenogenesis can evolve rapidly in a sexual population.

Vitellogenin Underwent Subfunctionalization to Acquire Caste and Behavioral Specific Expression in the Harvester Ant Pogonomyrmex barbatus.

The reproductive ground plan hypothesis (RGPH) proposes that the physiological pathways regulating reproduction were co-opted to regulate worker division of labor. Support for this hypothesis in honeybees is provided by studies demonstrating that the reproductive potential of workers, assessed by the levels of vitellogenin (Vg), is linked to task performance. Interestingly, contrary to honeybees that have a single Vg ortholog and potentially fertile nurses, the genome of the harvester ant Pogonomyrmex barbatus harbors two Vg genes (Pb_Vg1 and Pb_Vg2) and nurses produce infertile trophic eggs. P. barbatus, thus, provides a unique model to investigate whether Vg duplication in ants was followed by subfunctionalization to acquire reproductive and non-reproductive functions and whether Vg reproductive function was co-opted to regulate behavior in sterile workers. To investigate these questions, we compared the expression patterns of P. barbatus Vg genes and analyzed the phylogenetic relationships and molecular evolution of Vg genes in ants. qRT-PCRs revealed that Pb_Vg1 is more highly expressed in queens compared to workers and in nurses compared to foragers. By contrast, the level of expression of Pb_Vg2 was higher in foragers than in nurses and queens. Phylogenetic analyses show that a first duplication of the ancestral Vg gene occurred after the divergence between the poneroid and formicoid clades and subsequent duplications occurred in the lineages leading to Solenopsis invicta, Linepithema humile and Acromyrmex echinatior. The initial duplication resulted in two Vg gene subfamilies preferentially expressed in queens and nurses (subfamily A) or in foraging workers (subfamily B). Finally, molecular evolution analyses show that the subfamily A experienced positive selection, while the subfamily B showed overall relaxation of purifying selection. Our results suggest that in P. barbatus the Vg gene underwent subfunctionalization after duplication to acquire caste- and behavior- specific expression associated with reproductive and non-reproductive functions, supporting the validity of the RGPH in ants.

Perturbation expansions of multilocus fixation probabilities for frequency-dependent selection with applications to the Hill-Robertson effect and to the joint evolution of helping and punishment.

Natural populations are of finite size and organisms carry multilocus genotypes. There are, nevertheless, few results on multilocus models when both random genetic drift and natural selection affect the evolutionary dynamics. In this paper we describe a formalism to calculate systematic perturbation expansions of moments of allelic states around neutrality in populations of constant size. This allows us to evaluate multilocus fixation probabilities (long-term limits of the moments) under arbitrary strength of selection and gene action. We show that such fixation probabilities can be expressed in terms of selection coefficients weighted by mean first passages times of ancestral gene lineages within a single ancestor. These passage times extend the coalescence times that weight selection coefficients in one-locus perturbation formulas for fixation probabilities. We then apply these results to investigate the Hill-Robertson effect and the coevolution of helping and punishment. Finally, we discuss limitations and strengths of the perturbation approach. In particular, it provides accurate approximations for fixation probabilities for weak selection regimes only (Ns < or = 1), but it provides generally good prediction for the direction of selection under frequency-dependent selection.

Hominoid fission of chromosome 14/15 and the role of segmental duplications.

Ape chromosomes homologous to human chromosomes 14 and 15 were generated by a fission event of an ancestral submetacentric chromosome, where the two chromosomes were joined head-to-tail. The hominoid ancestral chromosome most closely resembles the macaque chromosome 7. In this work, we provide insights into the evolution of human chromosomes 14 and 15, performing a comparative study between macaque boundary region 14/15 and the orthologous human regions. We construct a 1.6-Mb contig of macaque BAC clones in the region orthologous to the ancestral hominoid fission site and use it to define the structural changes that occurred on human 14q pericentromeric and 15q subtelomeric regions. We characterize the novel euchromatin-heterochromatin transition region (∼20 Mb) acquired during the neocentromere establishment on chromosome 14, and find it was mainly derived through pericentromeric duplications from ancestral hominoid chromosomes homologous to human 2q14-qter and 10. Further, we show a relationship between evolutionary hotspots and low-copy repeat loci for chromosome 15, revealing a possible role of segmental duplications not only in mediating but also in "stitching" together rearrangement breakpoints.

Disentangling reasons for low Y chromosome variation in the greater white-toothed shrew (Crocidura russula).

Y chromosome variation is determined by several confounding factors including mutation rate, effective population size, demography, and selection. Disentangling these factors is essential to better understand the evolutionary properties of the Y chromosome. We analyzed genetic variation on the Y chromosome, X chromosome, and mtDNA of the greater white-toothed shrew, a species with low variance in male reproductive success and limited sex-biased dispersal, which enables us to control to some extent for life-history effects. We also compared ancestral (Moroccan) to derived (European) populations to investigate the role of demographic history in determining Y variation. Recent colonization of Europe by a small number of founders (combined with low mutation rates) is largely responsible for low diversity observed on the European Y and X chromosomes compared to mtDNA. After accounting for mutation rate, copy number, and demography, the Y chromosome still displays a deficit in variation relative to the X in both populations. This is possibly influenced by directional selection, but the slightly higher variance in male reproductive success is also likely to play a role, even though the difference is small compared to that in highly polygynous species. This study illustrates that demography and life-history effects should be scrutinized before inferring strong selective pressure as a reason for low diversity on the Y chromosome.

Describing ancient horizontal gene transfers at the nucleotide and gene levels by comparative pathogenicity island genometrics.

MOTIVATION: Lateral gene transfer is a major mechanism contributing to bacterial genome dynamics and pathovar emergence via pathogenicity island (PAI) spreading. However, since few of these genomic exchanges are experimentally reproducible, it is difficult to establish evolutionary scenarios for the successive PAI transmissions between bacterial genera. Methods initially developed at the gene and/or nucleotide level for genomics, i.e. comparisons of concatenated sequences, ortholog frequency, gene order or dinucleotide usage, were combined and applied here to homologous PAIs: we call this approach comparative PAI genometrics. RESULTS: YAPI, a Yersinia PAI, and related islands were compared with measure evolutionary relationships between related modules. Through use of our genometric approach designed for tracking codon usage adaptation and gene phylogeny, an ancient inter-genus PAI transfer was oriented for the first time by characterizing the genomic environment in which the ancestral island emerged and its subsequent transfers to other bacterial genera.

Implementing statistical learning methods through Bayesian networks (Part 2): bayesian evaluations for results of black toner analyses in forensic document examination

This paper presents and discusses the use of Bayesian procedures - introduced through the use of Bayesian networks in Part I of this series of papers - for 'learning' probabilities from data. The discussion will relate to a set of real data on characteristics of black toners commonly used in printing and copying devices. Particular attention is drawn to the incorporation of the proposed procedures as an integral part in probabilistic inference schemes (notably in the form of Bayesian networks) that are intended to address uncertainties related to particular propositions of interest (e.g., whether or not a sample originates from a particular source). The conceptual tenets of the proposed methodologies are presented along with aspects of their practical implementation using currently available Bayesian network software.

Functional diversification of duplicate genes through subcellular adaptation of encoded proteins.

BACKGROUND: Gene duplication is the primary source of new genes with novel or altered functions. It is known that duplicates may obtain these new functional roles by evolving divergent expression patterns and/or protein functions after the duplication event. Here, using yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) as a model organism, we investigate a previously little considered mode for the functional diversification of duplicate genes: subcellular adaptation of encoded proteins. RESULTS: We show that for 24-37% of duplicate gene pairs derived from the S. cerevisiae whole-genome duplication event, the two members of the pair encode proteins that localize to distinct subcellular compartments. The propensity of yeast duplicate genes to evolve new localization patterns depends to a large extent on the biological function of their progenitor genes. Proteins involved in processes with a wider subcellular distribution (for example, catabolism) frequently evolved new protein localization patterns after duplication, whereas duplicate proteins limited to a smaller number of organelles (for example, highly expressed biosynthesis/housekeeping proteins with a slow rate of evolution) rarely relocate within the cell. Paralogous proteins evolved divergent localization patterns by partitioning of ancestral localizations ('sublocalization'), but probably more frequently by relocalization to new compartments ('neolocalization'). We show that such subcellular reprogramming may occur through selectively driven substitutions in protein targeting sequences. Notably, our data also reveal that relocated proteins functionally adapted to their new subcellular environments and evolved new functional roles through changes of their physico-chemical properties, expression levels, and interaction partners. CONCLUSION: We conclude that protein subcellular adaptation represents a common mechanism for the functional diversification of duplicate genes.

Specific duplication and dorsoventrally asymmetric expression patterns of Cycloidea-like genes in zygomorphic species of Ranunculaceae.

Floral bilateral symmetry (zygomorphy) has evolved several times independently in angiosperms from radially symmetrical (actinomorphic) ancestral states. Homologs of the Antirrhinum majus Cycloidea gene (Cyc) have been shown to control floral symmetry in diverse groups in core eudicots. In the basal eudicot family Ranunculaceae, there is a single evolutionary transition from actinomorphy to zygomorphy in the stem lineage of the tribe Delphinieae. We characterized Cyc homologs in 18 genera of Ranunculaceae, including the four genera of Delphinieae, in a sampling that represents the floral morphological diversity of this tribe, and reconstructed the evolutionary history of this gene family in Ranunculaceae. Within each of the two RanaCyL (Ranunculaceae Cycloidea-like) lineages previously identified, an additional duplication possibly predating the emergence of the Delphinieae was found, resulting in up to four gene copies in zygomorphic species. Expression analyses indicate that the RanaCyL paralogs are expressed early in floral buds and that the duration of their expression varies between species and paralog class. At most one RanaCyL paralog was expressed during the late stages of floral development in the actinomorphic species studied whereas all paralogs from the zygomorphic species were expressed, composing a species-specific identity code for perianth organs. The contrasted asymmetric patterns of expression observed in the two zygomorphic species is discussed in relation to their distinct perianth architecture.

Subject-based steroid profiling and the determination of novel biomarkers for DHT and DHEA misuse in sports.

Doping with natural steroids can be detected by evaluating the urinary concentrations and ratios of several endogenous steroids. Since these biomarkers of steroid doping are known to present large inter-individual variations, monitoring of individual steroid profiles over time allows switching from population-based towards subject-based reference ranges for improved detection. In an Athlete Biological Passport (ABP), biomarkers data are collated throughout the athlete's sporting career and individual thresholds defined adaptively. For now, this approach has been validated on a limited number of markers of steroid doping, such as the testosterone (T) over epitestosterone (E) ratio to detect T misuse in athletes. Additional markers are required for other endogenous steroids like dihydrotestosterone (DHT) and dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA). By combining comprehensive steroid profiles composed of 24 steroid concentrations with Bayesian inference techniques for longitudinal profiling, a selection was made for the detection of DHT and DHEA misuse. The biomarkers found were rated according to relative response, parameter stability, discriminative power, and maximal detection time. This analysis revealed DHT/E, DHT/5β-androstane-3α,17β-diol and 5α-androstane-3α,17β-diol/5β-androstane-3α,17β-diol as best biomarkers for DHT administration and DHEA/E, 16α-hydroxydehydroepiandrosterone/E, 7β-hydroxydehydroepiandrosterone/E and 5β-androstane-3α,17β-diol/5α-androstane-3α,17β-diol for DHEA. The selected biomarkers were found suitable for individual referencing. A drastic overall increase in sensitivity was obtained. The use of multiple markers as formalized in an Athlete Steroidal Passport (ASP) can provide firm evidence of doping with endogenous steroids.

Evolutionary and Functional Analyses of the Interaction between the Myeloid Restriction Factor SAMHD1 and the Lentiviral Vpx Protein.

SAMHD1 has recently been identified as an HIV-1 restriction factor operating in myeloid cells. As a countermeasure, the Vpx accessory protein from HIV-2 and certain lineages of SIV have evolved to antagonize SAMHD1 by inducing its ubiquitin-proteasome-dependent degradation. Here, we show that SAMHD1 experienced strong positive selection episodes during primate evolution that occurred in the Catarrhini ancestral branch prior to the separation between hominoids (gibbons and great apes) and Old World monkeys. The identification of SAMHD1 residues under positive selection led to mapping the Vpx-interaction domain of SAMHD1 to its C-terminal region. Importantly, we found that while SAMHD1 restriction activity toward HIV-1 is evolutionarily maintained, antagonism of SAMHD1 by Vpx is species-specific. The distinct evolutionary signature of SAMHD1 sheds light on the development of its antiviral specificity.