Looking for orders of magnitude : five essays in trade and the environment and economic geography

General Summary Although the chapters of this thesis address a variety of issues, the principal aim is common: test economic ideas in an international economic context. The intention has been to supply empirical findings using the largest suitable data sets and making use of the most appropriate empirical techniques. This thesis can roughly be divided into two parts: the first one, corresponding to the first two chapters, investigates the link between trade and the environment, the second one, the last three chapters, is related to economic geography issues. Environmental problems are omnipresent in the daily press nowadays and one of the arguments put forward is that globalisation causes severe environmental problems through the reallocation of investments and production to countries with less stringent environmental regulations. A measure of the amplitude of this undesirable effect is provided in the first part. The third and the fourth chapters explore the productivity effects of agglomeration. The computed spillover effects between different sectors indicate how cluster-formation might be productivity enhancing. The last chapter is not about how to better understand the world but how to measure it and it was just a great pleasure to work on it. "The Economist" writes every week about the impressive population and economic growth observed in China and India, and everybody agrees that the world's center of gravity has shifted. But by how much and how fast did it shift? An answer is given in the last part, which proposes a global measure for the location of world production and allows to visualize our results in Google Earth. A short summary of each of the five chapters is provided below. The first chapter, entitled "Unraveling the World-Wide Pollution-Haven Effect" investigates the relative strength of the pollution haven effect (PH, comparative advantage in dirty products due to differences in environmental regulation) and the factor endowment effect (FE, comparative advantage in dirty, capital intensive products due to differences in endowments). We compute the pollution content of imports using the IPPS coefficients (for three pollutants, namely biological oxygen demand, sulphur dioxide and toxic pollution intensity for all manufacturing sectors) provided by the World Bank and use a gravity-type framework to isolate the two above mentioned effects. Our study covers 48 countries that can be classified into 29 Southern and 19 Northern countries and uses the lead content of gasoline as proxy for environmental stringency. For North-South trade we find significant PH and FE effects going in the expected, opposite directions and being of similar magnitude. However, when looking at world trade, the effects become very small because of the high North-North trade share, where we have no a priori expectations about the signs of these effects. Therefore popular fears about the trade effects of differences in environmental regulations might by exaggerated. The second chapter is entitled "Is trade bad for the Environment? Decomposing worldwide SO2 emissions, 1990-2000". First we construct a novel and large database containing reasonable estimates of SO2 emission intensities per unit labor that vary across countries, periods and manufacturing sectors. Then we use these original data (covering 31 developed and 31 developing countries) to decompose the worldwide SO2 emissions into the three well known dynamic effects (scale, technique and composition effect). We find that the positive scale (+9,5%) and the negative technique (-12.5%) effect are the main driving forces of emission changes. Composition effects between countries and sectors are smaller, both negative and of similar magnitude (-3.5% each). Given that trade matters via the composition effects this means that trade reduces total emissions. We next construct, in a first experiment, a hypothetical world where no trade happens, i.e. each country produces its imports at home and does no longer produce its exports. The difference between the actual and this no-trade world allows us (under the omission of price effects) to compute a static first-order trade effect. The latter now increases total world emissions because it allows, on average, dirty countries to specialize in dirty products. However, this effect is smaller (3.5%) in 2000 than in 1990 (10%), in line with the negative dynamic composition effect identified in the previous exercise. We then propose a second experiment, comparing effective emissions with the maximum or minimum possible level of SO2 emissions. These hypothetical levels of emissions are obtained by reallocating labour accordingly across sectors within each country (under the country-employment and the world industry-production constraints). Using linear programming techniques, we show that emissions are reduced by 90% with respect to the worst case, but that they could still be reduced further by another 80% if emissions were to be minimized. The findings from this chapter go together with those from chapter one in the sense that trade-induced composition effect do not seem to be the main source of pollution, at least in the recent past. Going now to the economic geography part of this thesis, the third chapter, entitled "A Dynamic Model with Sectoral Agglomeration Effects" consists of a short note that derives the theoretical model estimated in the fourth chapter. The derivation is directly based on the multi-regional framework by Ciccone (2002) but extends it in order to include sectoral disaggregation and a temporal dimension. This allows us formally to write present productivity as a function of past productivity and other contemporaneous and past control variables. The fourth chapter entitled "Sectoral Agglomeration Effects in a Panel of European Regions" takes the final equation derived in chapter three to the data. We investigate the empirical link between density and labour productivity based on regional data (245 NUTS-2 regions over the period 1980-2003). Using dynamic panel techniques allows us to control for the possible endogeneity of density and for region specific effects. We find a positive long run elasticity of density with respect to labour productivity of about 13%. When using data at the sectoral level it seems that positive cross-sector and negative own-sector externalities are present in manufacturing while financial services display strong positive own-sector effects. The fifth and last chapter entitled "Is the World's Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?" computes the world economic, demographic and geographic center of gravity for 1975-2004 and compares them. Based on data for the largest cities in the world and using the physical concept of center of mass, we find that the world's economic center of gravity is still located in Europe, even though there is a clear shift towards Asia. To sum up, this thesis makes three main contributions. First, it provides new estimates of orders of magnitudes for the role of trade in the globalisation and environment debate. Second, it computes reliable and disaggregated elasticities for the effect of density on labour productivity in European regions. Third, it allows us, in a geometrically rigorous way, to track the path of the world's economic center of gravity.

Retrospective feasibility study of simultaneous integrated boost in cervical cancer using Tomotherapy: the impact of organ motion and tumor regression.

BACKGROUND: Whole pelvis intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) is increasingly being used to treat cervical cancer aiming to reduce side effects. Encouraged by this, some groups have proposed the use of simultaneous integrated boost (SIB) to target the tumor, either to get a higher tumoricidal effect or to replace brachytherapy. Nevertheless, physiological organ movement and rapid tumor regression throughout treatment might substantially reduce any benefit of this approach. PURPOSE: To evaluate the clinical target volume - simultaneous integrated boost (CTV-SIB) regression and motion during chemo-radiotherapy (CRT) for cervical cancer, and to monitor treatment progress dosimetrically and volumetrically to ensure treatment goals are met. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Ten patients treated with standard doses of CRT and brachytherapy were retrospectively re-planned using a helical Tomotherapy - SIB technique for the hypothetical scenario of this feasibility study. Target and organs at risk (OAR) were contoured on deformable fused planning-computed tomography and megavoltage computed tomography images. The CTV-SIB volume regression was determined. The center of mass (CM) was used to evaluate the degree of motion. The Dice's similarity coefficient (DSC) was used to assess the spatial overlap of CTV-SIBs between scans. A cumulative dose-volume histogram modeled estimated delivered doses. RESULTS: The CTV-SIB relative reduction was between 31 and 70%. The mean maximum CM change was 12.5, 9, and 3 mm in the superior-inferior, antero-posterior, and right-left dimensions, respectively. The CTV-SIB-DSC approached 1 in the first week of treatment, indicating almost perfect overlap. CTV-SIB-DSC regressed linearly during therapy, and by the end of treatment was 0.5, indicating 50% discordance. Two patients received less than 95% of the prescribed dose. Much higher doses to the OAR were observed. A multiple regression analysis showed a significant interaction between CTV-SIB reduction and OAR dose increase. CONCLUSIONS: The CTV-SIB had important regression and motion during CRT, receiving lower therapeutic doses than expected. The OAR had unpredictable shifts and received higher doses. The use of SIB without frequent adaptation of the treatment plan exposes cervical cancer patients to an unpredictable risk of under-dosing the target and/or overdosing adjacent critical structures. In that scenario, brachytherapy continues to be the gold standard approach.

Permian-Triassic of the Tethys: Carbon isotope sudies

Profiles of carbon isotopes were studied in marine limestones of Late Permian and Early Triassic age of the Tethyan region from 20 sections in Yugoslavia, Greece, Turkey, Armenian SSR, Iran, Pakistan, India, Nepal, and China. The Upper Permian sections continue the high positive values of 13C previously found in Upper Permian basins in NW Europe and western USA. In the more complete sections of Tethys it can now be demonstrated that the values of 13C drop from the Murgabian to the Dzhulfian Stages of the Upper Permian, then sharply to values near zero during the last two biozones of the Dorashamian. These levels of 13C sample the Tethys Sea and the world ocean, and equal values from deep-water sediments at Salamis Greece indicate that they apply to the whole water column. We hypothesize that the high values of 13C are a consequence of Late Paleozoic storage of organic carbon, and that the declines represent an episodic cessation of this organic deposition, and partial oxidation of the organic reservoir, extending over a period of several million years. The carbon isotope profile may reflect parallel complexity in the pattern of mass extinction in Late Permian time. Des profils isotopiques du carbone ont été établis dans des calcaires marins d'âge tardi-permien à  éo-triasique répartis dans 20 endroits du domaine téthysien: Yougoslavie, Grèce, Turquie, République d'Arménie, Iran, Pakistan, Inde, Népal et Chine. Les profils établis dans le Permien supérieur montrent les mêmes valeurs positives de 13C observées antérieurement dans des bassins de même âge en Europe occidentale et dans l'ouest des USA. Dans les profils les plus complets de la Téthys, il est maintenant établi que les valeurs de 13C décroissent depuis le Murgabien jusqu'au Dzhulfien (Permien supérieur) pour devenir proches de zéro dans les deux dernières biozones du Dorasharmen. Ces valeurs de 13C sont caractéristiques de la Téthys et de l'Océan mondial; elles s'appliquent à toutes les profondeurs d'eau, comme en témoignent les valeurs fournies par des sédiments de mer profonde à Salamis (Grèce). Nous formulons l'hypothèse que les hautes valeurs de 13C sont la conséquence du stockage du carbone organique au Paléozoïque supérieur et que leur décroissance traduit un arrêt épisodique de cette sédimentation organique, accompagné d'une oxydation partielle de la matière organique s'étendant sur une période de plusieurs Ma. L'influence parallèle des phénomènes d'extinction massive à le fin du Permien se refléterait également dans les profils isotopiques du carbone.

Precision of tibial tunnel placement under arthroscopic control alone in posterior cruciate ligament reconstruction: A radiological study

Introduction: Accurate and reproducible tibial tunnel placement minimizing the risk of neurovascular damage is a crucial condition for successful arthroscopic reconstruction of the posterior cruciate ligament (PCL). This step is commonly performed under fluoroscopic control. Hypothesis: Performing the tibial tunnel under exclusive arthroscopic control allows accurate and reliable tunnel placement according to recommendations in the literature. Materials and Methods: Between February 2007 and December 2009, 108 arthroscopic single bundle PCL reconstructions in tibial tunnel technique were performed. The routine postoperative radiographs were screened according to previously defined quality criterions. After critical analysis, the radiographs of 48 patients (48 knees) were enrolled in the study. 10 patients had simultaneous ACL reconstruction and 7 had PCL revision surgery. The tibial tunnel was placed under direct arthroscopic control through a posteromedial portal using a standard tibial aming device. Key anatomical landmarks were the exposed tibial insertion of the PCL and the posterior horn of the medial meniscus. First, the centre of the posterior tibial tunnel outlet on the a-p view was determined by digital analysis of the postoperative radiographes. Its distance to the medial tibial spine was measured parallel to the tibia plateau. The mediolateral position was expressed by the ratio between the distance of the tunnel outlet to the medial border and the total width of the tibial plateau. On the lateral view the vertical tunnel position was measured perpendicularly to a tangent of the medial tibial plateau. All measurement were repeated at least twice and carried out by two examiners. Results: The mean mediolateral tunnel position was 49.3 ± 4.6% (ratio), 6.7 ± 3.6 mm lateral to the medial tibial spine. On the lateral view the tunnel centre was 10.1 ± 4.5 mm distal to the bony surface of the medial tibial plateau. Neurovascular damage was observed in none of our patients. Conclusion: The results of this radiological study confirm that exclusive arthroscopic control for tibial tunnel placement in PCL reconstruction yields reproducible and accurate results according to the literature. Our technique avoids radiation, facilitates the operation room setting and enables the surgeon to visualize the anatomic key landmarks for tibial tunnel placement.

A history of the renewal of the corneal epithelium : a 3D animation

Background: To compare the different schemes that have been proposed during the last thirteen years to explain the renewal of the corneal epithelium. Material and Methods:We analyzed all the data present in the literature to explain the renewal of the corneal epithelium in mammals. According to the schemes proposed in the literature we developed a 3D animation to facilitate the understanding of the different concepts. Results:Three different schemes have been proposed to explain the renewal of the corneal epithelium in mammals during the last thirteen years. 1950-1981: the corneal epithelium was thought being renewed by mitosis of cells located in the basal layer. At this time scientist were not talking about stem cells. 1981-1986 was the period of the "XYZ hypothesis" or the transdifferentiation paradigm. At this time the conjunctival epithelium renewed the corneal epithelium in a centripetal migration. 1986-2008: the limbal stem cell paradigm, there were no stem cells in the corneal epithelium, all the corneal stem cells were located in the limbus and renewed the central cornea after a migration of 6 to 7 mm of transient amplifying cells toward the centre of the cornea. 2008, epithelial stem cells were found in the central cornea in mammals (Nature, Majo et al. November 2008). Discussion:We thought that the renewal of the corneal epithelium was completely defined. According to the last results we published in Nature, the current paradigm will be revisited. The experiments we made were on animals and the final demonstration on human has still to be done. If we find the same results in human, a new paradigm will be define and will change the way we consider ocular surface therapy and reconstruction.

EADock: docking of small molecules into protein active sites with a multiobjective evolutionary optimization.

In recent years, protein-ligand docking has become a powerful tool for drug development. Although several approaches suitable for high throughput screening are available, there is a need for methods able to identify binding modes with high accuracy. This accuracy is essential to reliably compute the binding free energy of the ligand. Such methods are needed when the binding mode of lead compounds is not determined experimentally but is needed for structure-based lead optimization. We present here a new docking software, called EADock, that aims at this goal. It uses an hybrid evolutionary algorithm with two fitness functions, in combination with a sophisticated management of the diversity. EADock is interfaced with the CHARMM package for energy calculations and coordinate handling. A validation was carried out on 37 crystallized protein-ligand complexes featuring 11 different proteins. The search space was defined as a sphere of 15 A around the center of mass of the ligand position in the crystal structure, and on the contrary to other benchmarks, our algorithm was fed with optimized ligand positions up to 10 A root mean square deviation (RMSD) from the crystal structure, excluding the latter. This validation illustrates the efficiency of our sampling strategy, as correct binding modes, defined by a RMSD to the crystal structure lower than 2 A, were identified and ranked first for 68% of the complexes. The success rate increases to 78% when considering the five best ranked clusters, and 92% when all clusters present in the last generation are taken into account. Most failures could be explained by the presence of crystal contacts in the experimental structure. Finally, the ability of EADock to accurately predict binding modes on a real application was illustrated by the successful docking of the RGD cyclic pentapeptide on the alphaVbeta3 integrin, starting far away from the binding pocket.

Psychomotor retardation in depression: bradykinesia or paucity of movement?

Objectives: Psychomotor retardation is part of Major Depression (MD) diagnosis criteria and has been assimilated to bradykinesia, even though there is a clear lack of objective measurement of motor activity in MD. We conducted a study to evaluate bradykinesia, posture and gait parameters in MD patients with an ambulatory system, allowing continuous motor measurements. Methods: Patients with DSM-IV MD and healthy controls matched for age and sex were asked to carry on with their usual activities while being recorded for 6 hours by a wireless autonomous ambulatory system, containing miniature gyroscopes, data-logger, battery and flash memory. allowing continuous recording of upper limbs movements (speed, amplitude and activity (% of time with movement)), posture (% of time standing, walking, lying or sitting) and gait parameters (speed, cadence, stance, double support, stride). Results: Hands activity was significantly lower in depressed patients, as compared to controls (MD: 40%, controls: 60%; p<0.05). Speed of hand movements (p= 0.13) and their amplitude (p=0.71) were similar to controls. MD patients had a trend to spend more time lying or sitting than controls (p=0.06) but did not differ in terms of any gait parameters. Conclusion: Patients with MD displayed less hand movements than controls and tended to spend more time lying or sitting over 6 hours, but did not differ in terms of speed and amplitude of movement, nor in gait parameters. These results suggest that psychomotor retardation classically described in MD might be the expression of a paucity of movement rather than a bradykinesia as observed in parkinsonism and might involved different (nondopaminergic) mechanisms.

Effects of alternative sets of climatic predictors on species distribution models and associated estimates of extinction risk: a test with plants in an arid environment

Aim To evaluate the effects of using distinct alternative sets of climatic predictor variables on the performance, spatial predictions and future projections of species distribution models (SDMs) for rare plants in an arid environment. . Location Atacama and Peruvian Deserts, South America (18º30'S - 31º30'S, 0 - 3 000 m) Methods We modelled the present and future potential distributions of 13 species of Heliotropium sect. Cochranea, a plant group with a centre of diversity in the Atacama Desert. We developed and applied a sequential procedure, starting from climate monthly variables, to derive six alternative sets of climatic predictor variables. We used them to fit models with eight modelling techniques within an ensemble forecasting framework, and derived climate change projections for each of them. We evaluated the effects of using these alternative sets of predictor variables on performance, spatial predictions and projections of SDMs using Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLMM). Results The use of distinct sets of climatic predictor variables did not have a significant effect on overall metrics of model performance, but had significant effects on present and future spatial predictions. Main conclusion Using different sets of climatic predictors can yield the same model fits but different spatial predictions of current and future species distributions. This represents a new form of uncertainty in model-based estimates of extinction risk that may need to be better acknowledged and quantified in future SDM studies.

New reference tables and user-friendly Internet application for predicted heart weights.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge of normal heart weight ranges is important information for pathologists. Comparing the measured heart weight to reference values is one of the key elements used to determine if the heart is pathological, as heart weight increases in many cardiac pathologies. The current reference tables are old and in need of an update. AIMS: The purposes of this study are to establish new reference tables for normal heart weights in the local population and to determine the best predictive factor for normal heart weight. We also aim to provide technical support to calculate the predictive normal heart weight. METHODS: The reference values are based on retrospective analysis of adult Caucasian autopsy cases without any obvious pathology that were collected at the University Centre of Legal Medicine in Lausanne from 2007 to 2011. We selected 288 cases. The mean age was 39.2 years. There were 118 men and 170 women. Regression analyses were performed to assess the relationship of heart weight to body weight, body height, body mass index (BMI) and body surface area (BSA). RESULTS: The heart weight increased along with an increase in all the parameters studied. The mean heart weight was greater in men than in women at a similar body weight. BSA was determined to be the best predictor for normal heart weight. New reference tables for predicted heart weights are presented as a web application that enable the comparison of heart weights observed at autopsy with the reference values. CONCLUSIONS: The reference tables for heart weight and other organs should be systematically updated and adapted for the local population. Web access and smartphone applications for the predicted heart weight represent important investigational tools.

Genetic differentiation and zoogeography of Asian Suncus murinus (Mammalia: Soricidae)

Protein electrophoresis was used to assess the phylogenetic relationships of populations of the phenotypically variable Asian house shrew Suncus murinus. These populations represent a sample of both commensal and wild forms. They were compared to another taxon, S. montanus, which was formerly considered conspecific with S. murinus. Suncus dayi was used as an outgroup in all phylogenetic reconstructions. Within the S. murinus lineage, the allozyme data show very low levels of genetic differentiation among both wild and commensal Southeast Asian and Japanese samples when compared to the Indian populations. This pattern is consistent with the classical hypothesis of a recent introduction by man in Eastern Asia. The higher genetic diversity found within S. murinus from India, as well as previous mitochondrial and karyological results suggest that this area is the probable centre of origin for the species. Although the lack of gene flow between S. murinus and S. montanus is clearly established in an area of sympatry in Southern India, one Asian house shrew sampled in Nepal was more closely related to S. montanus. This could either reflect the retention of an ancestral polymorphism, or result from a hybridization episode between S. murinus and S. montanus. Similar conclusions were also suggested in mitochondrial DNA studies dealing with animals sampled in the Northern parts of the Indian subcontinent. Clearly, further data on Suncus from this area are needed in order to assess these hypotheses. (C) 1995 The Linnean Society of London