Intergenerational differences in cardiovascular risk factor levels in Switzerland

Background: There is little information regarding cardiovascular risk factor (CV RF) trends in Switzerland. We aimed at assessing generation differences in CV RFs by comparing CV RFs levels within selected age groups separated by a 20 year time lag. Design: Two population-based surveys. Methods: Data from the Monica (1984-1986) and Colaus (2004-2006) surveys were used. Analyses were stratified by sex and age groups (35-44, 45-54, 55-64 and 65-75 years). Results: No changes were found for BMI levels and status between surveys: in men, 26}3, 26}3, 27}4 and 27}4 kg/m2 for age groups 35-44, 45-54, 55-64 and 65-74, respectively, in MONICA, vs. 26}4, 26}4, 27}4 and 28}4 kg/m2 in COLAUS, p=NS, in women: 24}4, 26}4, 26}4 and 26}5 kg/m2 in MONICA, vs. 24}5, 25}5, 26}5 and 26}5 kg/m2 in COLAUS, p=NS. Similar results were found after adjusting for education. Smoking prevalence increased in men: 28, 30, 22 and 15% for age groups 35-44, 45-54, 55-64 and 65-74, respectively, in MONICA, vs. 35, 29, 28 and 21% in COLAUS. In women, changes differed according to age: 39, 26, 16 and 18%, in MONICA vs. 28, 30, 22 and 15% in COLAUS. Blood pressure decreased in the younger age groups and remained constant in the older ones: in men, systolic blood pressure was 129}15, 133}16, 138}18 and 143}21 mm Hg in MONICA, vs. 125}12, 129}15, 137}16 and 144}19 mm Hg in COLAUS, p<0.01. Similar findings were obtained after adjusting for education. Prevalence of hypertension increased, due to an increase in the prevalence of treated subjects, in men : 4, 8, 16 and 19% for age groups 35-44, 45-54, 55-64 and 65-74, respectively, in MONICA, vs. 5, 14, 31 and 46% in COLAUS, p<0.05; in women: 2, 10, 16, and 24% in MONICA, vs. 4, 12, 24, and 34% in COLAUS, p<0.05. This increase was stronger in men: 14, 17, 23 and 31% for age groups 35-44, 45-54, 55-64 and 65-74, respectively, in MONICA vs. 10, 21, 41 and 55% in COLAUS, p<0.01 and smaller in women: 6, 15, 24 and 44% in MONICA vs. 6, 16, 30 and 42% in COLAUS, p=NS. Similar findings were obtained after adjusting for education. Conclusion: With the exception of BMI, the newer Swiss generations appear to have a worse CV profile than the older generations. This is especially true regarding smoking and hypertension.

Suicide risk among incident cases of cancer in the Swiss Canton of Vaud.

Data collected by the Cancer Registry of the Canton of Vaud, Switzerland, wer used to estimate the risk of suicide for patients diagnosed with cancer. Among 24,166 cases of invasive neoplasms other than nonmelanomatous skin cancer reported between 1976 and 1987 and followed through integrated active follow-up to the end of 1987, for a total of 57,164 person years at risk, there were 55 registered suicides vs. 21.3 expected (standardized mortality ratio, SMR = 2.6; 95% confidence interval, Cl = 2.0-3.4). The ratio was slightly, but not significantly higher for males (SMR = 2.8) than for females (SMR = 2.2) and comparable across subsequent age groups. The risk of suicide was high during the 1st year after notification (SMR = 3.9) and decreased to 2.2 between 1 and 5 years and to 1.5 over 5 years. This study suggests that the risk of suicide after a diagnosis of cancer may be greater than previously estimated from cancer registry data in Finland, Sweden, and Connecticut (USA), at least in this population of Central Europe with high overall suicide rates.

Limited agreement between body mass index, waist and body fat in diagnosing obesity in the Swiss population

Objective: to assess the agreement between different anthropometric markers in defining obesity and the effect on the prevalence of obese subjects. Methods: population-based cross-sectional study including 3213 women and 2912 men aged 35-75 years. Body fat percentage (%BF) was assessed using electric bioimpedance. Obesity was defined using established cut-points for body mass index (BMI) and waist, and three population-defined cut-points for %BF. Between-criteria agreement was assessed by the kappa statistic. Results: in men, agreement between the %BF cut-points was significantly higher (kappa values in the range 0.78 - 0.86) than with BMI or waist (0.47 - 0.62), whereas no such differences were found in women (0.41 - 0.69). In both genders, prevalence of obesity varied considerably according to the criteria used: 17% and 24% according to BMI and waist in men, and 14% and 31%, respectively, in women. For %BF, the prevalence varied between 14% and 17% in men and between 19% and 36% in women according to the cut-point used. In the older age groups, a fourfold difference in the prevalence of obesity was found when different criteria were used. Among subjects with at least one criteria for obesity (increased BMI, waist or %BF), only one third fulfilled all three criteria and one quarter two criteria. Less than half of women and 64% of men were jointly classified as obese by the three population-defined cut-points for %BF. Conclusions: the different anthropometric criteria to define obesity show a relatively poor agreement between them, leading to considerable differences in the prevalence of obesity in the general population.

Distribution of plasma levels of adiponectin and leptin in an adult Caucasian population.

OBJECTIVES: Little is known regarding the distribution and the determinants of leptin and adiponectin levels in the general population. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. PATIENTS: Women (3004) and men (2552) aged 35-74 living in Lausanne, Switzerland. MEASUREMENTS: Plasma levels of leptin and adiponectin (ELISA measurement). RESULTS: Women had higher leptin and adiponectin levels than men. In both genders, leptin and adiponectin levels increased with age. After adjusting for fat mass, leptin levels were significantly and negatively associated with age in women: 18.1 +/- 0.3, 17.1 +/- 0.3, 16.7 +/- 0.3 and 15.5 +/- 0.4 ng/ml (adjusted mean +/- SE) for age groups [35-44], [45-54], [55-64] and [65-75], respectively, P < 0.001. A similar but nonsignificant trend was also found in men. Conversely, the age-related increase of adiponectin was unrelated to body fat in both genders. Post-menopausal women had higher leptin and adiponectin levels than premenopausal women, independently of hormone replacement therapy. Although body fat mass was associated with leptin and adiponectin, the associations were stronger with body mass index (BMI), waist and hip in both genders. Finally, after adjusting for age and anthropometry, no relationships were found between leptin or adiponectin levels with alcohol, caffeine consumption and physical activity, whereas smoking and diabetes decreased leptin and adiponectin levels in women only. CONCLUSIONS: The age-related increase in leptin levels is attributable to changes in fat mass in women and probably also in men. Leptin and adiponectin levels are more related to BMI than to body fat mass. The effects of smoking and diabetes appear to be gender-specific.

Gender stereotypes of personality : universal and accurate ?

Numerous studies have documented subtle but consistent sex differences in self-reports and observer-ratings of five-factor personality traits, and such effects were found to show well- defined developmental trajectories and remarkable similarity across nations. In contrast, very little is known about perceived gender differences in five-factor traits in spite of their potential implications for gender biases at the interpersonal and societal level. In particular, it is not clear how perceived gender differences in five-factor personality vary across age groups and national contexts and to what extent they accurately reflect assessed sex differences in personality. To address these questions, we analyzed responses from 3,323 individuals across 26 nations (mean age = 22.3 years, 31% male) who were asked to rate the five-factor personality traits of typical men or women in three age groups (adolescent, adult, and older adult) in their respective nations. Raters perceived women as slightly higher in openness, agreeableness, and conscientiousness as well as some aspects of extraversion and neuroticism. Perceived gender differences were fairly consistent across nations and target age groups and mapped closely onto assessed sex differences in self- and observer-rated personality. Associations between the average size of perceived gender differences and national variations in sociodemographic characteristics, value systems, or gender equality did not reach statistical significance. Findings contribute to our understanding of the underlying mechanisms of gender stereotypes of personality and suggest that perceptions of actual sex differences may play a more important role than culturally based gender roles and socialization processes.

Social inequalities of functioning and perceived health in Switzerland: a representative cross-sectional analysis.

Many people worldwide live with a disability, i.e. limitations in functioning. The prevalence is expected to increase due to demographic change and the growing importance of non-communicable disease and injury. To date, many epidemiological studies have used simple dichotomous measures of disability, even though the WHO's International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF) provides a multi-dimensional framework of functioning. We aimed to examine associations of socio-economic status (SES) and social integration in 3 core domains of functioning (impairment, pain, limitations in activity and participation) and perceived health. We conducted a secondary analysis of representative cross-sectional data of the Swiss Health Survey 2007 including 10,336 female and 8,424 male Swiss residents aged 15 or more. Guided by a theoretical ICF-based model, 4 mixed effects Poisson regressions were fitted in order to explain functioning and perceived health by indicators of SES and social integration. Analyses were stratified by age groups (15-30, 31-54, ≥55 years). In all age groups, SES and social integration were significantly associated with functional and perceived health. Among the functional domains, impairment and pain were closely related, and both were associated with limitations in activity and participation. SES, social integration and functioning were related to perceived health. We found pronounced social inequalities in functioning and perceived health, supporting our theoretical model. Social factors play a significant role in the experience of health, even in a wealthy country such as Switzerland. These findings await confirmation in other, particularly lower resourced settings.

Trends in motor vehicle crash mortality in Europe, 1980-2007.

Recent trends (1980-2007) in mortality from road traffic crashes in European countries, and, for comparative purposes, in the USA and Japan were reviewed. Data came from the World Health Organisation database. Age-standardised rates, at all ages and at 15-24, 25-64, >=65 years, were computed. Joinpoint regression analyses to evaluate significant changes in trends were performed. In the European Union as a whole rates declined from 20.2 in 1987 to 13.5/100,000 in 2007 in men, and from 6.3 to 3.7/100,000 in women; European Union rates remained lower than USA, but higher than Japanese ones. In 2007, the highest male rates were in Lithuania (36.7/100,000), the Russian Federation (35.2), Ukraine (29.8), and Latvia (28.5), and the lowest ones in the Netherlands (6.2) and Sweden (6.9); the highest female rates were in the Russian Federation (11.3), Lithuania (9.7), Belarus, Latvia, and Ukraine (around 8), and the lowest ones in Switzerland (1.7), the UK, and Nordic countries (around 2). Mortality from motor vehicle crashes declined in northern and western European countries and - though to a lesser extent - in southern European countries, too. Mortality trends were also favourable in the Czech Republic and Poland since the mid 1990's, whereas they were still upwards in Romania and the Russian Federation. No trend was observed in Hungary and Ukraine. Trends were consistent in various age groups considered. Thus, additional urgent and integrated intervention is required to prevent avoidable deaths from motor vehicle crashes, particularly in selected central and eastern European countries.

Measurement with an automated oscillometric wrist device with position sensor leads to lower values than measurements obtained with an automated oscillometric arm device from the same manufacturer in elderly persons.

OBJECTIVE: Home blood pressure (BP) monitoring is recommended by several clinical guidelines and has been shown to be feasible in elderly persons. Wrist manometers have recently been proposed for such home BP measurement, but their accuracy has not been previously assessed in elderly patients. METHODS: Forty-eight participants (33 women and 15 men, mean age 81.3±8.0 years) had their BP measured with a wrist device with position sensor and an arm device in random order in a sitting position. RESULTS: Average BP measurements were consistently lower with the wrist than arm device for systolic BP (120.1±2.2 vs. 130.5±2.2 mmHg, P<0.001, means±SD) and diastolic BP (66.0±1.3 vs. 69.7±1.3 mmHg, P<0.001). Moreover, a 10 mmHg or greater difference between the arm and wrist device was observed in 54.2 and 18.8% of systolic and diastolic measures, respectively. CONCLUSION: Compared with the arm device, the wrist device with position sensor systematically underestimated systolic as well as diastolic BP. The magnitude of the difference is clinically significant and questions the use of the wrist device to monitor BP in elderly persons. This study points to the need to validate BP measuring devices in all age groups, including in elderly persons.

Food allergy: Evaluation of the quality of life in Swiss children

Background: Food allergy in children, an increasingly prevalent disease, significantly affects the quality of life. Its impact can be analyzed by the recently validated French version of the Food Allergy Quality of Life Questionnaire (FAQLQ). Objectives: The aim of our study was to evaluate the quality of life in a small sample of Swiss children with IgE-mediated food allergy. Methods: Information were collected with the questionnaire among 0-12 years old children and their parents during a scheduled allergy visit, and analysed in term of emotional impact, food anxiety and social and food limitations. Patients were divided according to the questionnaire in three age groups: group 1 from 0 to 3 years, group 2 from 4 to 6 years and group 3 from 7 up to 12 years. Results: 30 food allergic patients were included, with a girl/boy ratio of 1:1.14. Median age was 6 years. 56% suffered from or had a history of eczema, 23% of rhino-conjunctivitis, 30% of asthma, and 13% reported a drug allergy. None had insect venom allergy. 57% were known to be allergic to one food, 20% to two foods, 20% to 3 foods and 3% had 3 or more food allergies. Tree nuts (51% of all allergies) as well as eggs (28 %) were the major allergies. Emotional impact had a total score of 1.54 but showed differences between age groups. In group 1 it was lower with 0.23, in group 2 the score was 2.03 and 1.77 in group 3. Food anxiety total score was 1.9; 0.76 in group 1, 2.31 in group 2 and 2.23 in group 3. Social and food limitations showed similar results with a total score of 1.73 and 1.23 in group 1, 2.05 in group 2 and 1.68 for group 3. Conclusion: Food allergy affects the quality of life of Swiss children. Our preliminary results on a small sample are comparable to previously published data. We show that the impact of food allergy on daily life increases when the child starts school and social activities.

Effects of particulate matters on inflammatory markers in the general adult population

Summary: Particulate air pollution is associated with increased cardiovascular risk. The induction of systemic inflammation following particle inhalation represents a plausible mechanistic pathway. The purpose of this study was to assess the associations of short-term exposure to ambient particulate matters of aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm (PM10) with circulating inflammatory markers in 6183 adults in Lausanne, Switzerland. The results show that short-term exposure to PM10 was associated with higher levels of circulating IL-6 and TNF-α. The positive association of PM10 with markers of systemic inflammation materializes the link between air pollution and cardiovascular risk. Background: Variations in short-term exposure to particulate matters (PM) have been repeatedly associated with daily all-cause mortality. Particle-induced inflammation has been postulated to be one of the important mechanisms for increased cardiovascular risk. Experimental in-vitro, in-vivo and controlled human studies suggest that interleukin 6 (IL-6) and tumor-necrosis-factor alpha (TNF-α) could represent key mediators of the inflammatory response to PM. The associations of short-term exposure to ambient PM with circulating inflammatory markers have been inconsistent in studies including specific subgroups so far. The epidemiological evidence linking short-term exposure to ambient PM and systemic inflammation in the general population is scarce. So far, large-scale population-based studies have not explored important inflammatory markers such as IL-6, IL-1β or TNF-α. We therefore analyzed the associations between short-term exposure to ambient PM10 and circulating levels of high-sensitive CRP (hs-CRP), IL-6, IL-1β and TNF-α in the population-based CoLaus study. Objectives: To assess the associations of short-term exposure to ambient particulate matters of aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm (PM10) with circulating inflammatory markers, including hs-CRP, IL-6, IL-1β and TNF-α, in adults aged 35 to 75 years from the general population. Methodology: All study subjects were participants to the CoLaus study (www.colaus.ch) and the baseline examination was carried out from 2003 to 2006. Overall, 6184 participants were included. For the present analysis, 6183 participants had data on at least one of the four measured circulating inflammatory markers. The monitoring data was obtained from the website of Swiss National Air Pollution Monitoring Network (NABEL). We analyzed data on PM10 as well as outside air temperature, pressure and humidity. Hourly concentrations of PM10 were collected from 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2006. Robust linear regression (PROC ROBUSTREG) was used to evaluate the relationship between cytokine inflammatory and PM10. We adjusted all analyses for age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, alcohol consumption, diabetes status, hypertension status, education levels, zip code, and statin intake. All data were adjusted for the effects of weather by including temperature, barometric pressure, and season as covariates in the adjusted models. We performed simple and multiple logistic regression analyses. Descriptive statistical analysis used the Wilcoxon rank sum test (for medians). All data analyses were performed using SAS software (version 9.2; SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC, USA), and a two-sided significance level of 5% was used. Results: PM10 levels averaged over 24 hours were significantly and positively associated with continuous IL-6 and TNF-α levels, in the whole study population both in unadjusted and adjusted analyses. For each cytokine, there was a similar seasonal pattern, with wider confidence intervals in summer than during the other seasons, which might partly be due to the smaller number of participants examined in summer. The associations of PM10 with IL-6 and TNF-α were also found after having dichotomized these cytokines into high versus low levels, which suggests that the associations of PM10 with the continuous cytokine levels are very robust to any distributional assumption and to potential outlier values. In contrast with what we observed for continuous IL-1β levels, high PM10 levels were significantly associated with high IL-1β. PM10 was significantly associated with IL-6 and TNF-α in men, but with TNF-α only in women. However, there was no significant statistical interaction between PM10 and sex. For IL-6 and TNF-α, the associations tended to be stronger in younger people, with a significant interaction between PM10 and age groups for IL-6. PM10 was significantly associated with IL-6 and TNF-α in the healthy group and also in the "non-healthy" group, although the statistical interaction between healthy status and PM10 was not significant. Conclusion: In summary, we found significant independent positive associations of short-term exposure to PM10 with circulating levels of IL-6 and TNF-α in the adult population of Lausanne. Our findings strongly support the idea that short-term exposure to PM10 is sufficient to induce systemic inflammation on a broad scale in the general population. From a public health perspective, the reported association of elevated inflammatory cytokines with short-term exposure to PM10 in a city with relatively clean air such as Lausanne supports the importance of limiting urban air pollution levels.

Sterblichkeit während Grippeepidemien in der Schweiz 1969-1985. [Mortality in influenza epidemics in Switzerland 1969-1985].

In Switzerland from 1969-1985, 9 out of 11 influenza epidemics were associated with a statistically significant increase in mortality. A total of 12,202 excess deaths from all causes was identified. Expected deaths were forecast for each epidemic period separately for 4 age groups using Fourier and Arima modeling. 75.7% of all-cause excess deaths occurred in age group 70 to 89 and 5.1% in age group 1-59. In the 70-89 years old group the excess mortality risk during influenza epidemics was 271.6 per 100,000, whereas in age group 1-59 it was only 1.7 per 100,000. Only 40% of all excess deaths had been ascribed to acute respiratory conditions. Influenza viruses A H3N2 were the most frequently identified agents. In some instances mortality increased before the morbidity reports of the Swiss practitioners indicated the occurrence of an epidemic. Also, morbidity reporting decreased over successive years. A decrease in mortality following the epidemics was not observed. A more complete vaccination of high risk patients in Switzerland is desirable.

Résistance aux antibiotiques chez les pneumocoques.

In 1875, 7 years prior to the description of the Koch bacillus, Klebs visualized the first Streptococcus pneumoniae in pleural fluid. Since then, this organism has played a decisive role in biomedical science. From a biological point of view, it was extensively involved in the development of passive and active immunization by serotherapy and vaccination respectively. Genetic transformation was also first observed in S. pneumoniae, leading to the discovery of DNA. From a clinical point of view, S. pneumoniae is today still a prime cause of otitis media in children and of pneumonia in all age groups, as well as a predominant cause of meningitis and bacteremia. In adults, bacteremia still has a mortality of over 25%. Although S. pneumoniae remained very sensitive to penicillin for many years, penicillin-resistant strains have emerged and increased dramatically over the last 15 years. During this period the frequency of penicillin-resistant isolates has increased from < or = 1% to frequencies varying from 20 to 60% in geographic areas as diverse as South Africa, Spain, France, Hungary, Iceland, Alaska, and numerous regions of the United States and South America. In Switzerland, the current frequency of penicillin-resistant pneumococci ranges between 5 and > or = 10%. The increase in penicillin-resistant pneumococci correlates with the intensive use of beta-lactam antibiotics. The mechanism of resistance is not due to bacterial production of penicillinase but to an alteration of the bacterial target of penicillin, the so-called penicillin-binding proteins. Resistance is subdivided into (1) intermediate level resistance (minimal inhibitory concentration [MIC] of penicillin of 0.1-1 mg/l) and (2) high level resistance (MCI > or = 2 mg/l). The clinical significance of intermediate resistance remains poorly defined. On the other hand, highly resistant strains have been responsible for numerous therapeutic failures, especially in cases of meningitis. Antibiotics recommended against penicillin-resistant pneumococci include cefotaxime, ceftriaxone, imipenem and in some instances vancomycin. However, penicillin-resistant pneumococci tend to present cross-resistances to all the antibiotics of the beta-lactam family and could even become resistant to the last resort drugs mentioned above. Thus, the explosion of resistance to penicillin in pneumococci is a ubiquitous phenomenon which must be fought against by (1) avoiding excessive use of antibiotics, (2) the practice of microbiological sampling of infected foci before treatment, (3) the systematic surveillance of resistance profiles of pneumococci against antibiotics and (4) adequate vaccination of populations at risk.

Breast cancer in younger women in Switzerland 1996-2009 : a longitudinal population-based study

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer (BC) is the most commonly diagnosed cancer and a leading cause of death in younger women. METHODS: We analysed incidence, mortality and relative survival (RS) in women with BC aged 20-49 years at diagnosis, between 1996 and 2009 in Switzerland. Trends are reported as estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). RESULTS: Our findings confirm a slight increase in the incidence of BC in younger Swiss women during the period 1996-2009. The increase was largest in women aged 20-39 years (EAPC 1.8%). Mortality decreased in both age groups with similar EAPCs. Survival was lowest among women 20-39 years (10-year RS 73.4%). We observed no notable differences in stage of disease at diagnosis that might explain these differences. CONCLUSIONS: The increased incidence and lower survival in younger women diagnosed with BC in Switzerland indicates possible differences in risk factors, tumour biology and treatment characteristics that require additional examination.

Risk factors for head and neck cancer in young adults: a pooled analysis in the INHANCE consortium.

BACKGROUND: Increasing incidence of head and neck cancer (HNC) in young adults has been reported. We aimed to compare the role of major risk factors and family history of cancer in HNC in young adults and older patients. METHODS: We pooled data from 25 case-control studies and conducted separate analyses for adults ≤45 years old ('young adults', 2010 cases and 4042 controls) and >45 years old ('older adults', 17 700 cases and 22 704 controls). Using logistic regression with studies treated as random effects, we estimated adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: The young group of cases had a higher proportion of oral tongue cancer (16.0% in women; 11.0% in men) and unspecified oral cavity / oropharynx cancer (16.2%; 11.1%) and a lower proportion of larynx cancer (12.1%; 16.6%) than older adult cases. The proportions of never smokers or never drinkers among female cases were higher than among male cases in both age groups. Positive associations with HNC and duration or pack-years of smoking and drinking were similar across age groups. However, the attributable fractions (AFs) for smoking and drinking were lower in young when compared with older adults (AFs for smoking in young women, older women, young men and older men, respectively, = 19.9% (95% CI = 9.8%, 27.9%), 48.9% (46.6%, 50.8%), 46.2% (38.5%, 52.5%), 64.3% (62.2%, 66.4%); AFs for drinking = 5.3% (-11.2%, 18.0%), 20.0% (14.5%, 25.0%), 21.5% (5.0%, 34.9%) and 50.4% (46.1%, 54.3%). A family history of early-onset cancer was associated with HNC risk in the young [OR = 2.27 (95% CI = 1.26, 4.10)], but not in the older adults [OR = 1.10 (0.91, 1.31)]. The attributable fraction for family history of early-onset cancer was 23.2% (8.60% to 31.4%) in young compared with 2.20% (-2.41%, 5.80%) in older adults. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in HNC aetiology according to age group may exist. The lower AF of cigarette smoking and alcohol drinking in young adults may be due to the reduced length of exposure due to the lower age. Other characteristics, such as those that are inherited, may play a more important role in HNC in young adults compared with older adults.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2015 : does lung cancer have the highest death rate in EU women?

BACKGROUND: Cancer mortality statistics for 2015 were projected from the most recent available data for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries. Prostate cancer was analysed in detail. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Population and death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukaemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organisation database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected 2015 numbers of deaths by age group were obtained by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model. RESULTS: A total of 1 359 100 cancer deaths are predicted in the EU in 2015 (766 200 men and 592 900 women), corresponding to standardised death rates of 138.4/100 000 men and 83.9/100 000 women, falling 7.5% and 6%, respectively, since 2009. In men, predicted rates for the three major cancers (lung, colorectum and prostate) are lower than in 2009, falling 9%, 5% and 12%. Prostate cancer showed predicted falls of 14%, 17% and 9% in the 35-64, 65-74 and 75+ age groups. In women, breast and colorectal cancers had favourable trends (-10% and -8%), but predicted lung cancer rates rise 9% to 14.24/100 000 becoming the cancer with the highest rate, reaching and possibly overtaking breast cancer rates-though the total number of deaths remain higher for breast (90 800) than lung (87 500). Pancreatic cancer has a negative outlook in both sexes, rising 4% in men and 5% in women between 2009 and 2015. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer mortality predictions for 2015 confirm the overall favourable cancer mortality trend in the EU, translating to an overall 26% fall in men since its peak in 1988, and 21% in women, and the avoidance of over 325 000 deaths in 2015 compared with the peak rate.