Uncertainty Quantification Of A Semi-Supervised Support Vector Regression Reservoir Model

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. Recent advances in machine learning offer a novel approach to model spatial distribution of petrophysical properties in complex reservoirs alternative to geostatistics. The approach is based of semisupervised learning, which handles both ?labelled? observed data and ?unlabelled? data, which have no measured value but describe prior knowledge and other relevant data in forms of manifolds in the input space where the modelled property is continuous. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic geological features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. On the other hand, it is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity of high permeability geo-bodies, which is often difficult in contemporary petroleum reservoir studies. Semi-supervised SVR as a data driven algorithm is designed to integrate various kind of conditioning information and learn dependences from it. The semi-supervised SVR model is able to balance signal/noise levels and control the prior belief in available data. In this work, stochastic semi-supervised SVR geomodel is integrated into Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty of reservoir production with multiple models fitted to past dynamic observations (production history). Multiple history matched models are obtained using stochastic sampling and/or MCMC-based inference algorithms, which evaluate posterior probability distribution. Uncertainty of the model is described by posterior probability of the model parameters that represent key geological properties: spatial correlation size, continuity strength, smoothness/variability of spatial property distribution. The developed approach is illustrated with a fluvial reservoir case. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes. The paper compares the performance of the models with different combinations of unknown parameters and discusses sensitivity issues.

Clinical practice guidelines for the management of candidiasis: 2009 update by the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

Guidelines for the management of patients with invasive candidiasis and mucosal candidiasis were prepared by an Expert Panel of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. These updated guidelines replace the previous guidelines published in the 15 January 2004 issue of Clinical Infectious Diseases and are intended for use by health care providers who care for patients who either have or are at risk of these infections. Since 2004, several new antifungal agents have become available, and several new studies have been published relating to the treatment of candidemia, other forms of invasive candidiasis, and mucosal disease, including oropharyngeal and esophageal candidiasis. There are also recent prospective data on the prevention of invasive candidiasis in high-risk neonates and adults and on the empiric treatment of suspected invasive candidiasis in adults. This new information is incorporated into this revised document.

Enterprise Architecture Principles in Research and Practice: Insights from an Exploratory Analysis

Even though architecture principles were first discussed in the 1990s, they are still perceived as an underexplored topic in enterprise architecture management research. By now, there is an increasing consensus about EA principles' nature, as well as guidelines for their formulation. However, the extant literature remains vague about what can be considered suitable EA design and evolution guidance principles. In addition, empirical insights regarding their role and usefulness in practice are still lacking. Accordingly, this research seeks to address three questions: (1) What are suitable principles to guide EA design and evolution? (2) What usage do EA principles have for practitioners? (3) Which propositions can be derived regarding EA principles' role and application? Opting for exploratory research, we apply a research process covering critical analysis of current publications as well as capturing experts' perceptions. Our research ontologically distinguishes between principles from nonprinciples, proposes a validated set of meta-principles, and clarifies principles' application, role, and usefulness in practice. The explored insights can be used as guidelines in defining suitable principles and turning them into an effective bridge between strategy and design and a guide in design decisions.

Meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy in neurosurgical practice.

Comparative effectiveness research (CER) allows evidence to be evaluated on the effectiveness, benefits, and detriments of management options, diagnostic tests, or ways to deliver health care. This process can be achieved in different ways, such as with well-designed randomized controlled trials or by meta-analyses. Several medical subspecialties are increasingly using CER, but CER remains underused by the neurosurgical community. Meta-analysis is a highly accurate method that permits results from multiple well-designed research studies to be quantitatively compared. Meta-analysis can be performed in many settings, such as the evaluation of treatment or of a diagnostic test or prognostic factor. Meta-analyses of randomized controlled treatment trials are well known, but there is a paucity of papers describing the ways to perform a meta-analysis of a diagnostic test. The aim of this paper is to improve neurosurgeons' familiarity with the meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy by describing and detailing each stage leading to publication.

Community introduction of practice parameters for autistic spectrum disorders: Advancing early recognition.

OBJECTIVES: Within a strong interdisciplinary framework, improvement in the quality of care for children with autistic spectrum disorders through a 2 year implementation program of Practice Parameters, aimed principally at improving early detection and intervention. METHOD: We developed Practice Parameters (PPs) for Pervasive Developmental Disorders and circulated the PPs to all child and adolescent psychiatrists practicing in the region. RESULTS: PP development and parallel information strategies resulted in a significant decrease of 1.5 years in the mean-age-at-diagnosis. However, further analysis indicated that improvement was only transient. CONCLUSION: Despite the encouraging improvement in mean-age-at-diagnosis 2 years after PP implementation, other indicators showed a failure to maintain the improvements. A systematic screening program would be the most reliable method to reinforce the PPs.

Die Reichweite von Theorien als Indikator für ihre Umsetzbarkeit in der Praxis [The scope as an indicator of the applicability of nursing theories to practice]

In der Pflegewissenschaft geben der Einsatz von Theorien und der daraus folgende Gewinn immer wieder Anlass zu Diskussionen. Ein Hauptvorwurf ist, dass Pflegetheorien als sehr abstrakt und wenig praxisnah gelten. Jedoch gibt es wenige Indikatoren, um das Abstraktionsniveau von Theorien und die damit verbundene Reichweite zu bestimmen. Im vorliegenden Artikel werden Fragen basierend auf die Definitionen und Grundannahmen von Theorien erstellt. Damit werden anschließend drei ausgesuchte Theorien auf ihr Abstraktionsniveau und Reichweite untersucht. Es wurden 18 Fragen zu den drei Bereichen ,,Zweck der Theorie", ,,Aufgabe der Theorie" und ,,Beschreibung der Theorie" entwickelt. Diese 18 Fragen wurden auf die Theorie der Adaptation von Sister Callista Roy, die Theorie zur Unsicherheit von Merle M. Mishel und die Theorie der Omnipräsenz von Krebs von Maya Shaha angewendet. [The use of nursing theories and their associated benefits remain an area of repeated discussion in nursing. One of the main objections is that nursing theories are abstract and therefore cannot be easily applied to practice. However, only few indicators exist to help identify a theory's level of abstraction or its scope. In this article, questions based on definitions and assumptions of theories have been developed. These questions have then been applied to three selected theories to investigate their level of abstraction and scope. A total of 18 questions divided into three domains were developed. The three categories were: ,,the purpose of the theory", ,,the aim of the theory" and ,,the description of the theory". The theory of Adaptation by Sister Callista Roy, the Theory of Uncertainty by Merle M. Mishel and the Theory of the Omnipresence of Cancer by Maya Shaha were selected to be analysed following the three domains with the 18 questions.]

Undertreatment of acute pain (oligoanalgesia) and medical practice variation in prehospital analgesia of adult trauma patients: a 10 yr retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Prehospital oligoanalgesia is prevalent among trauma victims, even when the emergency medical services team includes a physician. We investigated if not only patients' characteristics but physicians' practice variations contributed to prehospital oligoanalgesia. METHODS: Patient records of conscious adult trauma victims transported by our air rescue helicopter service over 10 yr were reviewed retrospectively. Oligoanalgesia was defined as a numeric rating scale (NRS) >3 at hospital admission. Multilevel logistic regression analysis was used to predict oligoanalgesia, accounting first for patient case-mix, and then physician-level clustering. The intraclass correlation was expressed as the median odds ratio (MOR). RESULTS: A total of 1202 patients and 77 physicians were included in the study. NRS at the scene was 6.9 (1.9). The prevalence of oligoanalgesia was 43%. Physicians had a median of 5.7 yr (inter-quartile range: 4.2-7.5) of post-graduate training and 27% were female. In our multilevel analysis, significant predictors of oligoanalgesia were: no analgesia [odds ratio (OR) 8.8], National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics V on site (OR 4.4), NRS on site (OR 1.5 per additional NRS unit >4), female physician (OR 2.0), and years of post-graduate experience [>4.0 to ≤5.0 (OR 1.3), >3.0 to ≤4.0 (OR 1.6), >2.0 to ≤3.0 (OR 2.6), and ≤2.0 yr (OR 16.7)]. The MOR was 2.6, and was statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Physicians' practice variations contributed to oligoanalgesia, a factor often overlooked in analyses of prehospital pain management. Further exploration of the sources of these variations may provide innovative targets for quality improvement programmes to achieve consistent pain relief for trauma victims.

Exposition au VIH, à l'hépatite B et C au cabinet médical et à l'hôpital. Prévention et prophylaxie postexpositionnelle [Exposure to HIV, hepatitis B and C in office practice and hospital. Prevention and post-exposure prophylaxis]

Suite à un accident exposant à du sang (piqûre; coupure), provenant d'un patient infecté, le risque d'infection par VIH est d'environ 0,3% et par le virus de l'hépatite C (VHC) d'environ 0,5%. Chez les personnes vaccinées avec une réponse immunitaire adéquate (titre d'anticorps HBs >100 mUI/ml), aucune infection professionnelle par hépatite B n'a été reconnue en Suisse. La plupart des infections par VIH et VHB peuvent être prévenues par un traitement d'urgence et une prophylaxie postexpositionnelle (PEP). Il n'y a actuellement aucune prophylaxie postexpositionnelle pour le VHC. En cas de transmission de VHC, un traitement rapide par peginterféron et ribavirine est à envisager. Chaque hôpital et cabinet médical doivent mettre sur pied un système pour assurer une prise en charge optimale et en urgence des blessures par piqûres ou coupures. Lors de blessures accidentelles avec du sang de patients séropositifs pour le VIH et dans des situations complexes, il est recommandé de consulter un médecin du personnel ou un infectiologue expérimenté. The risk of infection after an occupational needle stick injury with blood from an infected source patient is approximately 0.3% for HIV and 0.5% for hepatitis C virus (HCV). In Switzerland no cases of occupational HBV infection have been recorded in fully vaccinated persons with a documented adequate vaccine response (HBsantibody titer >100 mIU/mL). Most occupational HIV und HBV infections can be prevented by appropriate emergency measures and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP). No HCV-PEP is currently available. Early therapy with peginterferon and ribavirin should be considered in cases of occupational HCV seroconversion. Every hospital and office practice should establish a system for 24 h/24 h emergency management of occupational needle stick injuries. In the setting of an HIV-seropositive source patient and in complex situations, early consultation with a specialist in occupational medicine or infectious diseases should be considered.

Interpretation and use of FRAX in clinical practice.

The introduction of the WHO FRAX® algorithms has facilitated the assessment of fracture risk on the basis of fracture probability. Its use in fracture risk prediction has strengths, but also limitations of which the clinician should be aware and are the focus of this review INTRODUCTION: The International Osteoporosis Foundation (IOF) and the International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) appointed a joint Task Force to develop resource documents in order to make recommendations on how to improve FRAX and better inform clinicians who use FRAX. The Task Force met in November 2010 for 3 days to discuss these topics which form the focus of this review. METHODS: This study reviews the resource documents and joint position statements of ISCD and IOF. RESULTS: Details on the clinical risk factors currently used in FRAX are provided, and the reasons for the exclusion of others are provided. Recommendations are made for the development of surrogate models where country-specific FRAX models are not available. CONCLUSIONS: The wish list of clinicians for the modulation of FRAX is large, but in many instances, these wishes cannot presently be fulfilled; however, an explanation and understanding of the reasons may be helpful in translating the information provided by FRAX into clinical practice.

Discriminating irritable bowel syndrome from inflammatory bowel disease: what is the role of biomarkers in daily practice?

Background and Aims: Discriminating irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) from inflammatorybowel disease (IBD) can be a clinical challenge as symptoms can overlap. We and othershave recently shown that fecal calprotectin (FC) is more accurate for discriminating IBSfrom IBD compared to C-reactive protein (CRP) and blood leukocytes. Data on the biomarkersused in daily gastroenterological practice are lacking. We therefore aimed to assess whichbiomarkers are used by gastroenterologists in their daily practice for discriminating IBSfrom IBD.Methods: A questionnaire was sent to all board certified gastroenterologists inSwitzerland focusing on demographic informations, number of IBS patients treated in thetime period from May 2009 to April 2010, and the specific biomarkers evaluated fordiscriminating IBS from IBD.Results: Response rate was 57% (153/270). Mean physician'sage was 50±9years, mean duration of gastroenterologic practice 14±8years, 52% of themwere working in private practice and 48% in hospitals. Thirty-nine percent had taken careof more than 100 IBS patients in the last 12 months, 37% had seen 41-100 and 24% hadseen 1-40 IBS patients. Gastroenterologists in private practice more frequently took care ofat least 40 IBS patients in a year compared to hospital-based gastroenterologists (P<0.001).The following biomarkers were determined for discriminating IBS from IBD: CRP 100%,FC 79%, hematogram (red blood cells and leukocytes) 70%, iron status (ferritin, transferrinsaturation) 59%, erythrocyte sedimentation rate 2.7%, protein electrophoresis 0.7%, andalpha-1 antitrypsin clearance 0.7%. There was a trend for using FC more often in privatepractice than in hospital (P = 0.08). Twenty-four percent of gastroenterologists had usedFC in the workup of more than 70% of patients classified as IBS, 22% had used FC in 30-70% of IBS patients, 39% in less than 30%, and 15% had never used FC for the work-upof suspected IBS. Eighty-nine percent of gastroenterologists considered FC to be superiorto CRP for discriminating IBS from IBD, 87% thought that patient's compliance for fecalsampling is high, and 51% judged the fee of USD 60 for a FC test as appropriate.Conclusions:FC is widely used in clinical practice to discriminate IBS from IBD. In accordance with thescientific evidence, the majority of gastroenterologists consider FC to be more accurate thanCRP for discriminating IBS from IBD. Gastroenterologists in private practice take care ofsignificantly more IBS patients than colleagues in hospital.

Complexité, médecine générale et réformes des systèmes de santé [Complexity, general practice and reforms of health systems].

The family doctor facing complexity must decide in situations of low certainty and low agreement. Complexity is in part subjective but can also be measured. Changes in the health systems aim to reduce health costs. They tend to give priority to simple situations and to neglect complexity. One role of an academic institute of family medicine is to present and promote the results of scientific research supporting the principles of family medicine, taking into account both the local context and health systems reforms. In Switzerland the new challenge is the introduction of managed care.

Suivi thérapeutique des médicaments (II). La pratique clinique [Therapeutic drug monitoring: clinical practice].

When requesting a blood level measurement in the context of "Therapeutic drug monitoring" (TDM), numerous aspects have to be considered in the pre-analytical and analytical area, as in the integration of associated clinical data. This review presents therapeutic classes for which a clinical benefit of TDM is established or suggested, at least in some settings. For each class of drugs, the main pharmacokinetic, pre-analytical, analytical and clinical aspects are evaluated in the scope of such a monitoring. Each step of the TDM process is important and none should be neglected. Additional clinical trials are however warranted to better establish the exact conditions of use for such a monitoring.