Predictors for hospitalization and outpatient visits in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: results from the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) have a high resource consumption, with considerable costs for the healthcare system. In a system with sparse resources, treatment is influenced not only by clinical judgement but also by resource consumption. We aimed to determine the resource consumption of IBD patients and to identify its significant predictors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from the prospective Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study were analysed for the resource consumption endpoints hospitalization and outpatient consultations at enrolment [1187 patients; 41.1% ulcerative colitis (UC), 58.9% Crohn's disease (CD)] and at 1-year follow-up (794 patients). Predictors of interest were chosen through an expert panel and a review of the relevant literature. Logistic regressions were used for binary endpoints, and negative binomial regressions and zero-inflated Poisson regressions were used for count data. RESULTS: For CD, fistula, use of biologics and disease activity were significant predictors for hospitalization days (all P-values <0.001); age, sex, steroid therapy and biologics were significant predictors for the number of outpatient visits (P=0.0368, 0.023, 0.0002, 0.0003, respectively). For UC, biologics, C-reactive protein, smoke quitters, age and sex were significantly predictive for hospitalization days (P=0.0167, 0.0003, 0.0003, 0.0076 and 0.0175 respectively); disease activity and immunosuppressive therapy predicted the number of outpatient visits (P=0.0009 and 0.0017, respectively). The results of multivariate regressions are shown in detail. CONCLUSION: Several highly significant clinical predictors for resource consumption in IBD were identified that might be considered in medical decision-making. In terms of resource consumption and its predictors, CD and UC show a different behaviour.

Prediction in forensic science: a critical examination of common understandings

In this commentary, we argue that the term 'prediction' is overly used when in fact, referring to foundational writings of de Finetti, the correspondent term should be inference. In particular, we intend (i) to summarize and clarify relevant subject matter on prediction from established statistical theory, and (ii) point out the logic of this understanding with respect practical uses of the term prediction. Written from an interdisciplinary perspective, associating statistics and forensic science as an example, this discussion also connects to related fields such as medical diagnosis and other areas of application where reasoning based on scientific results is practiced in societal relevant contexts. This includes forensic psychology that uses prediction as part of its vocabulary when dealing with matters that arise in the course of legal proceedings.

La performance sportive comme travail

Au cours des dernières décennies, les recherches articulant sport et travail se sont beaucoup développées. Elles portent sur un large ensemble de questions comme le fonctionnement des organisations sportives, les carrières des sportifs de haut niveau, la croissance d'un secteur économique et de métiers de l'intervention sportive, les migrations internationales des sportifs, les discriminations sexuelles ou raciales dans l'accès aux marchés du travail sportif, etc. Ici nous mettons l'accent sur une dimension, centrale, des activités sportives : la compétition. Et notre objectif est d'analyser les mécanismes de production de la performance sportive. Nous considérons celle-ci comme le résultat d'un travail qui n'engage pas les seuls sportifs, avec leurs aptitudes, qualités ou capacités individuelles. Nous la définissons comme une activité collective, qui mobilise une pluralité d'acteurs, institutions, organisations. À travers une variété d'opérations de jugement, d'évaluation, de reconnaissance, de qualification, de cotation, de sélection, ces acteurs contribuent, de manière directe et décisive, à produire la performance sportive. En présentant des travaux empiriques qui argumentent cette problématique et la mobilisent dans des domaines variés (cyclisme, rugby, judo, etc.), nous invitons au développement de recherches sur le travail sportif. In recent decades, there has been much development in research connecting sport and work. It covers a wide range of questions such as how sports organisations operate, the careers of top-level athletes, the growth of an economic sector and its specific jobs, the international migrations of athletes, sexual or racial discrimination in access to the labour market in sport, etc. Here, we place the emphasis on one central dimension of sports activities : competition. Our objective is to analyse the mechanisms of production of sports performance. We consider this to be the outcome of work that does not only involve athletes, with their individual skills, qualities or capacities. We define it as a collective activity that marshals multiple actors, institutions, organisations. Through a variety of activities of judgement, evaluation, recognition, qualification, classification and selection, these actors contribute directly and decisively to producing sports performance. By presenting empirical work that discusses this issue and applies it in varied domains (cycling, rugby, judo, etc.), we call for the development of research into work in sport.