Dynamics of a paleoecosystem reef associated with oceanic change in carbonate sedimentary regime and carbon cycling (Oxfordian, Swiss Jura)

Herein we report an analysis of an Oxfordian (Upper Jurassic) paleoreef located in the Swiss Jura Mountains. The paleoreef is located in a Middle Oxfordian transitional interval in which sedimentation switched from marl-dominated to carbonate-dominated deposits. The paleoecosystem is composed of four successive fossil communities characterized by microsolenid corals and organisms that specialized in suspension feeding. Carbon isotopes measured from echinoid spine carbonates exhibit a positive trend from similar to 1.0 parts per thousand to 2.5 parts per thousand in delta(13)C values from the base to the top of the paleoreef. Comparison of delta(13)C curves with organic matter and belemnites shows different patterns not compatible with a global variation of the carbon cycle. Similar fossil assemblages and stratigraphic sequences identical in age are found along the continental margin of the Tethys-Atlantic Ocean. This biolithostratigraphic succession corresponds to increasing delta(13)C values of marine and biogenic carbonates, to the transition from marl-dominated to carbonate-dominated deposits, and to the development of carbonate platforms, which together suggest a change in the carbon cycling regime within the Tethys-Atlantic Ocean system.

Sensitivity of predictive species distribution models to change in grain size

Predictive species distribution modelling (SDM) has become an essential tool in biodiversity conservation and management. The choice of grain size (resolution) of environmental layers used in modelling is one important factor that may affect predictions. We applied 10 distinct modelling techniques to presence-only data for 50 species in five different regions, to test whether: (1) a 10-fold coarsening of resolution affects predictive performance of SDMs, and (2) any observed effects are dependent on the type of region, modelling technique, or species considered. Results show that a 10 times change in grain size does not severely affect predictions from species distribution models. The overall trend is towards degradation of model performance, but improvement can also be observed. Changing grain size does not equally affect models across regions, techniques, and species types. The strongest effect is on regions and species types, with tree species in the data sets (regions) with highest locational accuracy being most affected. Changing grain size had little influence on the ranking of techniques: boosted regression trees remain best at both resolutions. The number of occurrences used for model training had an important effect, with larger sample sizes resulting in better models, which tended to be more sensitive to grain. Effect of grain change was only noticeable for models reaching sufficient performance and/or with initial data that have an intrinsic error smaller than the coarser grain size.

Where will conflicts between alien and rare species occur after climate and land-use change? A test with a novel combined modelling approach

Protecting native biodiversity against alien invasive species requires powerful methods to anticipate these invasions and to protect native species assumed to be at risk. Here, we describe how species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to identify areas predicted as suitable for rare native species and also predicted as highly susceptible to invasion by alien species, at present and under future climate and land-use scenarios. To assess the condition and dynamics of such conflicts, we developed a combined predictive modelling (CPM) approach, which predicts species distributions by combining two SDMs fitted using subsets of predictors classified as acting at either regional or local scales. We illustrate the CPM approach for an alien invader and a rare species associated to similar habitats in northwest Portugal. Combined models predict a wider variety of potential species responses, providing more informative projections of species distributions and future dynamics than traditional, non-combined models. They also provide more informative insight regarding current and future rare-invasive conflict areas. For our studied species, conflict areas of highest conservation relevance are predicted to decrease over the next decade, supporting previous reports that some invasive species may contract their geographic range and impact due to climate change. More generally, our results highlight the more informative character of the combined approach to address practical issues in conservation and management programs, especially those aimed at mitigating the impact of invasive plants, land-use and climate changes in sensitive regions

Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests

Altitudinal tree lines are mainly constrained by temperature, but can also be influenced by factors such as human activity, particularly in the European Alps, where centuries of agricultural use have affected the tree-line. Over the last decades this trend has been reversed due to changing agricultural practices and land-abandonment. We aimed to combine a statistical land-abandonment model with a forest dynamics model, to take into account the combined effects of climate and human land-use on the Alpine tree-line in Switzerland. Land-abandonment probability was expressed by a logistic regression function of degree-day sum, distance from forest edge, soil stoniness, slope, proportion of employees in the secondary and tertiary sectors, proportion of commuters and proportion of full-time farms. This was implemented in the TreeMig spatio-temporal forest model. Distance from forest edge and degree-day sum vary through feed-back from the dynamics part of TreeMig and climate change scenarios, while the other variables remain constant for each grid cell over time. The new model, TreeMig-LAb, was tested on theoretical landscapes, where the variables in the land-abandonment model were varied one by one. This confirmed the strong influence of distance from forest and slope on the abandonment probability. Degree-day sum has a more complex role, with opposite influences on land-abandonment and forest growth. TreeMig-LAb was also applied to a case study area in the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps), along with a model where abandonment probability was a constant. Two scenarios were used: natural succession only (100% probability) and a probability of abandonment based on past transition proportions in that area (2.1% per decade). The former showed new forest growing in all but the highest-altitude locations. The latter was more realistic as to numbers of newly forested cells, but their location was random and the resulting landscape heterogeneous. Using the logistic regression model gave results consistent with observed patterns of land-abandonment: existing forests expanded and gaps closed, leading to an increasingly homogeneous landscape.

The Strength of Promissory Representation : What Makes MPs Change their Positions ?

The paper analyses the positional congruence between pre-election statements in the Swiss voting assistance application "smartvote" and post-election behaviour in the Swiss lower house between 2003 and 2009. For this purpose, we selected 34 smartvote questions which subsequently came up in parliament. Unlike previous studies which assessed the program-to-policy linkage of governments or party groups the paper examines the question at the level of individual MPs which seems appropriate for political systems which follow the idea of power dispersion. While the average rate of political congruence is at some 85 percent, a multivariate analysis detects the underlying factors which push or curb a candidate's propensity to change his or her mind once elections are over. The results show that positional changes are more likely if (1) MPs are freshmen, (2) individual voting behaviour is invisible to the public, (3) the vote is not about a party's core issue, (4) the MP belongs to a party which is located in the political centre, and (5) if the pre-election statement is in disagreement with the majority position of the legislative party group. The last-mentioned factor is paramount: the farer away a candidate's pre-election profile from his or her party is located, the weaker turns out to be the electoral link of promissory representation.

Biased gene conversion and GC-content evolution in the coding sequences of reptiles and vertebrates.

Mammalian and avian genomes are characterized by a substantial spatial heterogeneity of GC-content, which is often interpreted as reflecting the effect of local GC-biased gene conversion (gBGC), a meiotic repair bias that favors G and C over A and T alleles in high-recombining genomic regions. Surprisingly, the first fully sequenced nonavian sauropsid (i.e., reptile), the green anole Anolis carolinensis, revealed a highly homogeneous genomic GC-content landscape, suggesting the possibility that gBGC might not be at work in this lineage. Here, we analyze GC-content evolution at third-codon positions (GC3) in 44 vertebrates species, including eight newly sequenced transcriptomes, with a specific focus on nonavian sauropsids. We report that reptiles, including the green anole, have a genome-wide distribution of GC3 similar to that of mammals and birds, and we infer a strong GC3-heterogeneity to be already present in the tetrapod ancestor. We further show that the dynamic of coding sequence GC-content is largely governed by karyotypic features in vertebrates, notably in the green anole, in agreement with the gBGC hypothesis. The discrepancy between third-codon positions and noncoding DNA regarding GC-content dynamics in the green anole could not be explained by the activity of transposable elements or selection on codon usage. This analysis highlights the unique value of third-codon positions as an insertion/deletion-free marker of nucleotide substitution biases that ultimately affect the evolution of proteins.

Trace element differentiation in ferruginous accumulation soil patterns under tropical rainforest of southern Cameroon, the role of climatic change

Regions under tropical rainforest cover, such as central Africa and Brazil are characterised by degradation and dismantling of old ferricrete structures. In southern Cameroon, these processes are relayed by present-day ferruginous accumulation soil facies, situated on the middle and the lower part of hill slopes. These facies become progressively harder towards the surface, containing from bottom to top, mainly kaolinite, kaolinite-goethite and Al-rich goethite-hematite, and are discontinuous to the relictic hematite-dominated ferricrete that exist in the upper part of the hill slope. These features were investigated in terms of geochemical differentiation of trace elements. It appears that, in contrast to the old ferricrete facies, the current ferruginous accumulations are enriched in transitional trace elements (V, Cr, Co, Y, Sc) and Ph, while alkali-earth elements are less differentiated. This recent chemical accumulation is controlled both by intense weathering of the granodiorite bedrock and by mobilisation of elements previously accumulated in the old ferricrete. The observed processes are clearly linked to the present-day humid climate with rising groundwater tables. They slowly replace the old ferricretes formed during Cretaceous time under more seasonal climatic conditions, representing an instructive case of continuos global change. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Specific mutations in the estrogen receptor change the properties of antiestrogens to full agonists.

The estrogen receptor (ER) stimulates transcription of target genes by means of its two transcriptional activation domains, AF-1 in the N-terminal part of the receptor and AF-2 in its ligand-binding domain. AF-2 activity is dependent upon a putative amphipathic alpha-helix between residues 538 and 552 in the mouse ER. Point mutagenesis of conserved hydrophobic residues within this region reduces estrogen-dependent transcriptional activation without affecting hormone and DNA binding significantly. Here we show that these mutations dramatically alter the pharmacology of estrogen antagonists. Both tamoxifen and ICI 164,384 behave as strong agonists in HeLa cells expressing the ER mutants. In contrast to the wild-type ER, the mutant receptors maintain nuclear localization and DNA-binding activity after ICI 164,384 treatment. Structural alterations in AF-2 caused by gene mutations such as those described herein or by estrogen-independent signaling pathways may account for the insensitivity of some breast cancers to tamoxifen treatment.