107 resultados para rare event simulation


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Rare earth elements (REE) and stable isotope compositions (delta C-13 and delta O-18) of shark teeth and phosphatic coprolites were analyzed from the Lower Maastrichtian layers of the El Haria Formation and two sequences of the Paleocene-Eocene (P/E) Chouabine Formation in the Gafsa Basin (south western of Tunisia) in order to trace the sedimentological, climatic and oceanographic conditions. The REE chemistry and their distribution in the two archives are the same for each of the studied layers indicating that the coprolites and shark teeth experienced the same early diagenetic environments. However major differences occur between the Maastrichtian and the P/E reflecting changes in the depositional conditions. The Early Maastrichtian burial environment tended to be more anoxic with REE derived from reduced FeO. While in the P/E the REE patterns mimic the modern oxic-suboxic seawater, the REE source from remineralisation of organic coating could have more significance. The oxygen isotope compositions of the structural phosphates (delta O-18(PO4)) indicate a stable and warm climate during both studied time intervals. A small offset (-0.4 parts per thousand) in the delta O-18 value between the coprolites and shark teeth show minor thermal gradient between bottom and surface water. The pronounced negative shift of 34%. in delta C-13 values recorded in the upper part of the Chouabine Formation was ascribed to the Paleocene-Eocene boundary. At the same time the lack of negative change in the delta O-18 is explained by the semi-closed situation of the Gafsa Basin, which situation also played an important role in the evolution of the organic matters in the sediment resulting in the exceptional low delta C-13 values. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The identification of genetically homogeneous groups of individuals is a long standing issue in population genetics. A recent Bayesian algorithm implemented in the software STRUCTURE allows the identification of such groups. However, the ability of this algorithm to detect the true number of clusters (K) in a sample of individuals when patterns of dispersal among populations are not homogeneous has not been tested. The goal of this study is to carry out such tests, using various dispersal scenarios from data generated with an individual-based model. We found that in most cases the estimated 'log probability of data' does not provide a correct estimation of the number of clusters, K. However, using an ad hoc statistic DeltaK based on the rate of change in the log probability of data between successive K values, we found that STRUCTURE accurately detects the uppermost hierarchical level of structure for the scenarios we tested. As might be expected, the results are sensitive to the type of genetic marker used (AFLP vs. microsatellite), the number of loci scored, the number of populations sampled, and the number of individuals typed in each sample.

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RESUME Objectif : Les lymphomes épiduraux primaires représentent moins de 10% des tumeurs épidurales et de 0,1 à 3,3% de tous les lymphomes. Le but de cette étude a été d'évaluer le profil clinique de cette maladie rare, son traitement, ses résultats ainsi que ses facteurs de pronostic. Matériel et méthode : Entre 1982 et 2002, 52 patients présentant un lymphome épidural primaire ont été traités dans neuf institutions membres du Rare Cancer Network. Les critères d'inclusion comprenaient : une biopsie confirmant le lymphome non-hodgkinien, un stade IE et IIE selon la classification de Ann Arbor, un traitement à visée curative de radiothérapie combinée ou non à une chimiothérapie et un suivi d'au moins six mois. Selon la Working Formulation, 12 patients (23%) présentaient un lymphome de bas grade, 28 (54%) un grade intermédiaire et 12 (23%) un haut grade. Les hommes étaient atteints 1.9 fois plus fréquemment que les femmes. L'âge moyen était de 61 ans (intervalle : 21 à 96). Le bilan incluait un Ct-scan spinal (98%), une IRM (52%), un CT-scan thoraco-abdominal (77%) et une aspiration ou biopsie de moelle osseuse (96%). Les symptômes les plus fréquents comprenaient des douleurs dorsales (79% des patients), une faiblesse musculaire (92%) et des déficits sensoriels (71 %). Quarante-huit patients ont subi une laminectomie de décompression avec résection partielle ou complète (42% et 13% des cas respectivement), tous ont reçu une radiothérapie seule (20 patients) ou en combinaison avec une chimiothérapie (32 patients). La dose médiane totale était de 36 Gy (intervalle 6-50 Gy) avec une moyenne de 20 Gy par fraction (intervalle : 1-25). Le suivi moyen était de 71 mois (intervalle : 22-165 mois). Résultats : Suite au traitement, une progression locale a été observée chez 6 patients après un temps de latence moyen de 6 mois. Le taux de rechute systémique a été de 42% (22 patients) le plus souvent dans les ganglions lymphatiques (n=9) après un intervalle de temps moyen de 20 mois. Lors du dernier contrôle, 28 patients étaient vivants et 24 patients étaient décédés. Le taux de survie à 5 ans, le taux de survie sans maladie et le contrôle local étaient de 69%, 57% et 88% respectivement. En analyse univariée, les facteurs pronostics favorables statistiquement significatifs concernant la survie sans maladie étaient un âge inférieur à 63 ans, ainsi qu'une réponse neurologique complète. Pour la survie à 5 ans, les facteurs favorables étaient un âge inférieur à 63 ans. En analyse multivariée, les facteurs pronostics favorables pour la survie globale à 5 ans étaient une réponse neurologique complète, un traitement combiné, un volume de radiothérapie plus que focal, une dose totale de radiothérapie supérieure à 36 Gy et une résection partielle ou complète de la tumeur. En ce qui concerne la survie sans maladie, les facteurs pronostics favorables étáient un âge inférieur à 63 ans et un traitement combiné. Conclusion : Ce qui ressort de cette analyse est que le bilan diagnostic devrait inclure une IRM ou un CT-scan, un échantillon de tissu pour poser le diagnostic pathologique définitif de la lésion, une histoire médicale et un examen physique complet, une chimie sanguine, un CTscan thoraco-abdominal et une biopsie de la moelle osseuse, un PET-scan devrait également faire partie du bilan. Le traitement devrait consister, dans la phase aiguë, en une chirurgie de décompression avec ou sans résection, suivie d'une radiothérapie d'au moins 36Gy en 2 Gy par fraction et d'une chimiothérapie. Tous les patients présentant un lymphome de haut grade ou de grade intermédiaire devraient pouvoir bénéficier d'un traitement combiné.

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The pharmacokinetic determinants of successful antibiotic prophylaxis of endocarditis are not precisely known. Differences in half-lives of antibiotics between animals and humans preclude extrapolation of animal results to human situations. To overcome this limitation, we have mimicked in rats the amoxicillin kinetics in humans following a 3-g oral dose (as often used for prophylaxis of endocarditis) by delivering the drug through a computerized pump. Rats with catheter-induced vegetations were challenged with either of two strains of antibiotic-tolerant viridans group streptococci. Antibiotics were given either through the pump (to simulate the whole kinetic profile during prophylaxis in humans) or as an intravenous bolus which imitated only the peak level of amoxicillin (18 mg/liter) in human serum. Prophylaxis by intravenous bolus was inoculum dependent and afforded a limited protection only in rats challenged with the minimum inoculum size infecting > or = 90% of untreated controls. In contrast, simulation of kinetics in humans significantly protected animals challenged with 10 to 100 times the inoculum of either of the test organisms infecting > or = 90% of untreated controls. Thus, simulation of the profiles of amoxicillin prophylaxis in human serum was more efficacious than mere imitation of the transient peak level in rats. This confirms previous studies suggesting that the duration for which the serum amoxicillin level remained detectable (not only the magnitude of the peak) was an important parameter in successful prophylaxis of endocarditis. The results also suggest that single-dose prophylaxis with 3 g of amoxicillin in humans might be more effective than predicted by conventional animal models in which only peak levels of antibiotic in human serum were stimulated.

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Methods like Event History Analysis can show the existence of diffusion and part of its nature, but do not study the process itself. Nowadays, thanks to the increasing performance of computers, processes can be studied using computational modeling. This thesis presents an agent-based model of policy diffusion mainly inspired from the model developed by Braun and Gilardi (2006). I first start by developing a theoretical framework of policy diffusion that presents the main internal drivers of policy diffusion - such as the preference for the policy, the effectiveness of the policy, the institutional constraints, and the ideology - and its main mechanisms, namely learning, competition, emulation, and coercion. Therefore diffusion, expressed by these interdependencies, is a complex process that needs to be studied with computational agent-based modeling. In a second step, computational agent-based modeling is defined along with its most significant concepts: complexity and emergence. Using computational agent-based modeling implies the development of an algorithm and its programming. When this latter has been developed, we let the different agents interact. Consequently, a phenomenon of diffusion, derived from learning, emerges, meaning that the choice made by an agent is conditional to that made by its neighbors. As a result, learning follows an inverted S-curve, which leads to partial convergence - global divergence and local convergence - that triggers the emergence of political clusters; i.e. the creation of regions with the same policy. Furthermore, the average effectiveness in this computational world tends to follow a J-shaped curve, meaning that not only time is needed for a policy to deploy its effects, but that it also takes time for a country to find the best-suited policy. To conclude, diffusion is an emergent phenomenon from complex interactions and its outcomes as ensued from my model are in line with the theoretical expectations and the empirical evidence.Les méthodes d'analyse de biographie (event history analysis) permettent de mettre en évidence l'existence de phénomènes de diffusion et de les décrire, mais ne permettent pas d'en étudier le processus. Les simulations informatiques, grâce aux performances croissantes des ordinateurs, rendent possible l'étude des processus en tant que tels. Cette thèse, basée sur le modèle théorique développé par Braun et Gilardi (2006), présente une simulation centrée sur les agents des phénomènes de diffusion des politiques. Le point de départ de ce travail met en lumière, au niveau théorique, les principaux facteurs de changement internes à un pays : la préférence pour une politique donnée, l'efficacité de cette dernière, les contraintes institutionnelles, l'idéologie, et les principaux mécanismes de diffusion que sont l'apprentissage, la compétition, l'émulation et la coercition. La diffusion, définie par l'interdépendance des différents acteurs, est un système complexe dont l'étude est rendue possible par les simulations centrées sur les agents. Au niveau méthodologique, nous présenterons également les principaux concepts sous-jacents aux simulations, notamment la complexité et l'émergence. De plus, l'utilisation de simulations informatiques implique le développement d'un algorithme et sa programmation. Cette dernière réalisée, les agents peuvent interagir, avec comme résultat l'émergence d'un phénomène de diffusion, dérivé de l'apprentissage, où le choix d'un agent dépend en grande partie de ceux faits par ses voisins. De plus, ce phénomène suit une courbe en S caractéristique, poussant à la création de régions politiquement identiques, mais divergentes au niveau globale. Enfin, l'efficacité moyenne, dans ce monde simulé, suit une courbe en J, ce qui signifie qu'il faut du temps, non seulement pour que la politique montre ses effets, mais également pour qu'un pays introduise la politique la plus efficace. En conclusion, la diffusion est un phénomène émergent résultant d'interactions complexes dont les résultats du processus tel que développé dans ce modèle correspondent tant aux attentes théoriques qu'aux résultats pratiques.

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Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale for the purpose of improving predictions of groundwater flow and solute transport. However, extending corresponding approaches to the regional scale still represents one of the major challenges in the domain of hydrogeophysics. To address this problem, we have developed a regional-scale data integration methodology based on a two-step Bayesian sequential simulation approach. Our objective is to generate high-resolution stochastic realizations of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity field in the common case where there exist spatially exhaustive but poorly resolved measurements of a related geophysical parameter, as well as highly resolved but spatially sparse collocated measurements of this geophysical parameter and the hydraulic conductivity. To integrate this multi-scale, multi-parameter database, we first link the low- and high-resolution geophysical data via a stochastic downscaling procedure. This is followed by relating the downscaled geophysical data to the high-resolution hydraulic conductivity distribution. After outlining the general methodology of the approach, we demonstrate its application to a realistic synthetic example where we consider as data high-resolution measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities at a small number of borehole locations, as well as spatially exhaustive, low-resolution estimates of the electrical conductivity obtained from surface-based electrical resistivity tomography. The different stochastic realizations of the hydraulic conductivity field obtained using our procedure are validated by comparing their solute transport behaviour with that of the underlying ?true? hydraulic conductivity field. We find that, even in the presence of strong subsurface heterogeneity, our proposed procedure allows for the generation of faithful representations of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and reliable predictions of solute transport over long, regional-scale distances.

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Contexte Le plasmocytome isolé osseux est une tumeur maligne rare des cellules plasmocytaires. Les données issues de la littérature ne permettent pas de se déterminer sur la dose radiothérapeutique optimale. Dans cette perspective nous avons conduit une vaste étude rétrospective dans le but d'évaluer l'évolution, les facteurs pronostiques aunsi que la dose radiothérapeutique optimale chez les patients présentant un plasmocytome isolé. Méthodes Nous avons réunis les données de 206 patients présentant un plasmocytome isolé osseux sans évidence de myélome multiple. Chaque cas a été documenté histopathologiquement. La majorité des patients (n=169) ont été traités par radiothérapie seule, 32 par une combinaison radiothérapie-chimiothérapie, et 5 par chirurgie. La durée de suivi médiane fut de 54 mois (7-245) Résultats A 5 ans, la survie globale est de 70%, la survie sans maladie de 46% et le contrôle local de 88%. La durée médiane de développement vers une myélome multiple est de 21 mois (2-135) avec une probabilité à 5 ans de 51 %. Les analyses multivariées indiquent l'âge (<60 ans) et la taille de la tumeur (<5cm) comme facteur favorables pour survie. L'âge (<60ans) se dégage comme facteur favorable pour la survie sans maladie. La localisation de la tumeur (vertébrale vs autre) indique la probabilité de contrôle local. L'âge plus avancé (>60 ans) est le seul prédicteur de myélome multiple. Aucune relation dose-réponse n'est mise en évidence pour les doses supérieures à 30 Gy, même pour lés tumeurs les plus étendues. Conclusions Les patients les plus jeunes, principalement ceux présentant une localisation vertébrale, présentent la meilleure évolution sous traitement radiothérapeutique modéré. La progression vers le myélome multiple reste le problème thérapeutique principal. Les futures investigations devraient se focaliser sur les chimiothérapies adjuvantes ainsi que sur les nouveaux agents thérapeutiques.

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Introduction: Development of a squamous cell carcinoma (Marjolin's ulcer) is a rare but well-known complication of chronic discharging osteomyelitis. A high index of suspicion and highquality of histopathological examination are paramount in order to make the correct diagnosis. Methods: During a 15-year period (1993 and 2008), patients with long-standing chronic osteomyelitis with clinical symptoms of >1 year of duration, were retrospectively reviewed. Included were patients with histologically confirmed squamous-cell carcinoma associated with chronic wound overlying the site of chronic osteomyelitis. Clinical features and treatment approaches of these patients were analyzed. Results: During the study period, 6 patients were identified (2 women and 4 men) aged 52 to 67 years (mean 59 years). All patients had a long history of chronic discharging osteomyelitis (12, 19, 21, 30, 39 and 40 years), localized in the lower (5 patients) or upper extremitiy (1 patient). All tumors were histologically highly-differentiated squamous-cell carcinomas involving the deep soft tissues and the bone. 5 of 6 patients were initially misdiagnosed as chronic bone infection since bacteria were isolated in wound swabs, including Staphylococcus aureus (n = 3), Escherichia coli (n = 1) and Staphylococcus epidermidis (n = 1). Treatment consisted of major amputation in 4 patients and radical surgical excision in 2 patients refusing amputation. 4 patients were lost to follow-up due to return to their country of origin, the remaining 2 patients were without signs of tumor recurrence (both after major amputation). Conclusion: Malignant transformation of is a rare, but serious complication of long-standing discharging chronic osteomyelitis. All 6 patients were diagnosed after >10 years of persistent or recurrent wounds. It should be particularly suspected in case of a pathological fracture, development of exophytic mass and changes in local pattern of the ulcers itself. Multiple biopsies, including deep soft tissues and bone, are recommended to distinguish between chronic osteomyelitis, pseudoepitheliomatous hyperplasia and highly-differentiated squamous cell carcinoma. Early diagnosis and a team approach (orthopaedic and plastic surgeon) are crucial for optimal management of the patient

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L'héritage d'un grand événement sportif peut être perçu de multiples façons. On peut le voir comme positif ou négatif, tangible ou intangible, territorial ou personnel, intentionnel ou non, global ou local, à court ou long terme, lié au sport ou non, et aussi selon la perspective de ses différentes parties prenantes. En fait, il est bien plus approprié d'employer le terme d'héritages au pluriel qu'au singulier. Cet article donne une vue d'ensemble d'un concept souvent utilisé mais rarement défini - celui d'héritage (legacy en anglais) - en utilisant des exemples provenant des Jeux olympiques et des Jeux du Commonwealth, deux des plus grands événements sportifs multisports régulièrement organisés. Il conclue que l'héritage est pour l'essentiel un rêve à poursuivre plutôt qu'une certitude à atteindre pour ce qui concerne les grands événements sportifs.

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In previous years, several publications have reported cases of infants presenting neurological and gastrointestinal symptoms after ingestion of star anise tea. Such teas are sometimes given in various cultures for the treatment of infant colic pains. In most cases, the cause of intoxication was contamination of Chinese star anise (Illicium verum) by Japanese star anise (Illicium anisatum). Indeed, the toxicity of Illicium anisatum, also known as Shikimi, is caused by its content in potent neurotoxins (anisatin, neoanisatin, and pseudoanisatin), due to their activity as non-competitive antagonists of GABA receptors. The main reasons explaining the frequent contaminations are the strong macroscopic resemblance of the 2 substances, as well as the fact that the fruits are often sold partially broken or in ground form. Therefore, in most cases, chemical analysis is required to determine the possible adulterations. CASE REPORT: A 2-month-old infant, in good general health, was brought to the emergency unit after 3 consecutive episodes of central cyanosis and tetany of the limbs with spontaneous recovery the same afternoon. The child was also very irritable, regurgitated a lot, and positioned himself in opisthotonos. Between these episodes, the neurological exam showed some perturbations (horizontal nystagmus and Bell's phenomenon, hypertony of the extensor muscles, and mild hypotony of the axial flexor muscles) with slow improvement over the following hours. The remaining clinical exam, the laboratory work (complete blood count, renal, hepatic, and muscular tests, capillary blood gas, plasmatic amino acids, and urinary organic acids), and the electroencephalogram findings were all normal. In the course of a detailed interview, the parents reported having given 3 bottles to their child, each one containing 200 mL of an infusion with 4 to 5 fruits of star anise, in the hours preceding the symptoms to relieve colic pains. The last seizure-like event took place approximately 8h after the last ingestion. We could prove the ingestion of anisatin, the toxic substance found in Japanese star anise, and the contamination of Chinese star anise by the Japanese species. Indeed, the anisatin analysis by liquid chromatography and mass spectroscopy (LC-MS) in a urine sample taken 22 h after the last infusion ingestion showed trace amounts of the substance. In another urine sample taken 33 h after ingestion, no anisatin could be detected. Furthermore, the analysis of the fruit sample gave an anisatin concentration of 7800 μg/kg while the maximum tolerance value in Switzerland is 1000 μg/kg. CONCLUSION: The evaluation of ALTE in infants should always include the possibility of intoxication. Star anise is generally considered a harmless medicine. Nevertheless, it can sometimes cause a severe intoxication resulting in various neurological and gastrointestinal symptoms. To prevent such events, not only the parents, but also the care personnel and pharmacists must be informed about the possible adverse effects caused either by the overdose of Chinese star anise or by the eventual contamination of herbal teas with Japanese star anise. A better control of the substances by the health authorities is also necessary.

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Background: Oncological treatments are traditionally administered via intravenous injection by qualified personnel. Oral formulas which are developing rapidly are preferred by patients and facilitate administration however they may increase non-adherence. In this study 4 common oral chemotherapeutics are given to 50 patients, who are still in the process of inclusion, divided into 4 groups. The aim is to evaluate adherence and offer these patients interdisciplinary support with the joint help of doctors and pharmacists. We present here the results for capecitabine. Materials and Methods: The final goal is to evaluate adhesion in 50 patients split into 4 groups according to oral treatments (letrozole/exemestane, imatinib/sunitinib, capecitabine and temozolomide) using persistence and quality of execution as parameters. These parameters are evaluated using a medication event monitoring system (MEMS®) in addition to routine oncological visits and semi-structured interviews. Patients were monitored for the entire duration of treatment up to a maximum of 1 year. Patient satisfaction was assessed at the end of the monitoring period using a standardized questionary. Results: Capecitabine group included 2 women and 8 men with a median age of 55 years (range: 36−77 years) monitored for an average duration of 100 days (range: 5-210 days). Persistence was 98% and quality of execution 95%. 5 patients underwent cyclic treatment (2 out of 3 weeks) and 5 patients continuous treatment. Toxicities higher than grade 1 were grade 2−3 hand-foot syndrome in 1 patient and grade 3 acute coronary syndrome in 1 patient both without impact on adherence. Patients were satisfied with the interviews undergone during the study (57% useful, 28% very useful, 15% useless) and successfully integrated the MEMS® in their daily lives (57% very easily, 43% easily) according to the results obtained by questionary at the end of the monitoring period. Conclusion: Persistence and quality of execution observed in our Capecitabine group of patients were excellent and better than expected compared to previously published studies. The interdisciplinary approach allowed us to better identify and help patients with toxicities to maintain adherence. Overall patients were satisfied with the global interdisciplinary follow-up. With longer follow up better evaluation of our method and its impact will be possible. Interpretation of the results of patients in the other groups of this ongoing trial will provide us information for a more detailed analysis.