165 resultados para probability of occurrence


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Over the last decade, the development of statistical models in support of forensic fingerprint identification has been the subject of increasing research attention, spurned on recently by commentators who claim that the scientific basis for fingerprint identification has not been adequately demonstrated. Such models are increasingly seen as useful tools in support of the fingerprint identification process within or in addition to the ACE-V framework. This paper provides a critical review of recent statistical models from both a practical and theoretical perspective. This includes analysis of models of two different methodologies: Probability of Random Correspondence (PRC) models that focus on calculating probabilities of the occurrence of fingerprint configurations for a given population, and Likelihood Ratio (LR) models which use analysis of corresponding features of fingerprints to derive a likelihood value representing the evidential weighting for a potential source.

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Résumé : Introduction Cette étude est une analyse rétrospective des complications urétérales et de leurs prises en charge à partir d'une série monocentrique de 277 transplantations rénales consécutives. Matériel et méthode De septembre 1979 à juin 1999, 277 transplantations rénales (origine cadavérique) ont été pratiquées chez 241 patients. L'uretère provenant de la greffe rénale a été inséré dans la vessie selon la technique d'implantation extravésicale décrite par Lich-Gregoir et Campos-Freire. L'étude a analysé la date de survenue et le genre de complications observés. Les différentes procédures pour restaurer le tractus urinaire transplanté sont présentées dans cette étude. Résultats Des complications sont survenues chez 43/277 transplantations rénales (15,5%). Les fuites urinaires sur l'anastomose ou les sténoses urétérales étaient les plus fréquentes. La date de survenue de ces complications étaient soit précoce (< 1 mois) soit tardive (> 1 mois) dans un nombre similaire de cas. La plupart des cas ont été pris en charge chirurgicalement 33/43 cas (76,7%). La réparation chirurgicale la plus fréquente a été la réimplantation urétérovésicale (n-13), suivie par : l'anastomose urétérourétérale termino-terminale (uretère natif-uretère greffé, n-5) ; l'anastomose pyélourétérale (uretère natif-bassinet rénal greffé, n=5) ; la simple révision de l'implantation urétérovésicale (n=4) ; la résection et l'anastomose termino-terminale de l'uretère greffé (n=2) ; la calico-vésicostomie (vessie greffée, n=1) ; l'implantation selon Boari (n=1) ; la pyélovésicostomie avec bipartition de la vessie (n-1), et la pyéloiléocystoplastie avec greffe iléale détubularisée (n=1). Aucun décès en relation avec les complications urologiques n'a été rapporté. Cependant, 2 reflux vésico-rénaux consécutifs ont conduit à distance à la perte du greffon. Conclusion Le taux de complications constaté dans cette analyse rétrospective est similaire à celui observé dans d'autres études. Il se situe entre 2 et 20%. Si l'implantation urétérovésicale extravésicale classique reste une technique attractive en raison de sa simplicité, l'équipe chirurgicale dans un centre de formation doit rester attentive à toute mesure de prévention des complications urétérales, comme le choix d'une autre technique d'implantation de l'uretère et/ou de l'insertion transitoire d'un stent urétéral. Abstract Introduction: This study is a retrospective analysis of ureteral complications and their management from a monocenter series of 277 consecutive renal transplantations. Materials and Methods: From September 1979 to June 1999, 277 renal transplantations (cadaveric origin) were performed in 241 patients. The ureter from the kidney graft was inserted into the bladder according to the technique of extravesical implantation described by Lich-Gregoir and Campos-Freire. The study analyzed the time of occurrence and the type of complications observed. The different procedures to restore the transplanted urinary tract are presented. Results: Complications occurred in 431277 renal transplantations (15.5%). Anastomotic urine leakage or ureteral stricture were the most frequent. The time to appearance of these complications was either short (<1 month) or late (>1 month) in a similar number of cases. Most cases were managed surgically: 33/43 cases (76.7%). The most frequent surgi cal repair was ureterovesical reimplantation n =13), Followed by: ureteroureteral end, to end anastomosis (native ureter-ureter transplant, n =, 5); pyeloureteral anastomosis (native ureter-renal pelvis transplant n = 5): simple revision of ureterovesical implantation (n=4): resection and end-to end anastomosis of the transplant ureter (n=2); calico-vesicostomy graft-bladder, n = 1); implantation according to Boari (n= 1); pyelovesicostomy with bipartition of bladder (n = 1), and pyeloileocystoplasty with detubularized ileal graft (n=1). No deaths related to any of the urological complications were reported However, 2 consecutive vesico-renal refluxes led to the loss of the kidney graft in the long-term. Conclusion: The rate of complications observed in this retrospective analysis is similar to the experience of other studies, ranging from 2 to 20% If the classical extravesical ureteral bladder implantation is to remain an attractive technique due to its simplicity, the surgical team at the training center should be aware of all the means to prevent any ureteral complications, such as the choice of another implantation technique and/or insertion of a transient ureteral stent.

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ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The intuitive early diagnostic guess could play an important role in reaching a final diagnosis. However, no study to date has attempted to quantify the importance of general practitioners' (GPs) ability to correctly appraise the origin of chest pain within the first minutes of an encounter. METHODS: The validation study was nested in a multicentre cohort study with a one year follow-up and included 626 successive patients who presented with chest pain and were attended by 58 GPs in Western Switzerland. The early diagnostic guess was assessed prior to a patient's history being taken by a GP and was then compared to a diagnosis of chest pain observed over the next year. RESULTS: Using summary measures clustered at the GP's level, the early diagnostic guess was confirmed by further investigation in 51.0% (CI 95%; 49.4% to 52.5%) of patients presenting with chest pain. The early diagnostic guess was more accurate in patients with a life threatening illness (65.4%; CI 95% 64.5% to 66.3%) and in patients who did not feel anxious (62.9%; CI 95% 62.5% to 63.3%). The predictive abilities of an early diagnostic guess were consistent among GPs. CONCLUSIONS: The GPs early diagnostic guess was correct in one out of two patients presenting with chest pain. The probability of a correct guess was higher in patients with a life-threatening illness and in patients not feeling anxious about their pain.

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Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. Recent advances in machine learning offer a novel approach to model spatial distribution of petrophysical properties in complex reservoirs alternative to geostatistics. The approach is based of semisupervised learning, which handles both ?labelled? observed data and ?unlabelled? data, which have no measured value but describe prior knowledge and other relevant data in forms of manifolds in the input space where the modelled property is continuous. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic geological features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. On the other hand, it is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity of high permeability geo-bodies, which is often difficult in contemporary petroleum reservoir studies. Semi-supervised SVR as a data driven algorithm is designed to integrate various kind of conditioning information and learn dependences from it. The semi-supervised SVR model is able to balance signal/noise levels and control the prior belief in available data. In this work, stochastic semi-supervised SVR geomodel is integrated into Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty of reservoir production with multiple models fitted to past dynamic observations (production history). Multiple history matched models are obtained using stochastic sampling and/or MCMC-based inference algorithms, which evaluate posterior probability distribution. Uncertainty of the model is described by posterior probability of the model parameters that represent key geological properties: spatial correlation size, continuity strength, smoothness/variability of spatial property distribution. The developed approach is illustrated with a fluvial reservoir case. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes. The paper compares the performance of the models with different combinations of unknown parameters and discusses sensitivity issues.

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Abstract This work investigates the outcome of the interaction of the multiple causes of selection acting on dispersal in metapopulations. Dispersal, defined here as the ability of individuals to move out of their natal population to reproduce in an other one, has three main causes. First, population variability, as caused by random population extinctions, induces high incentives to disperse through the probability to recolonize an empty population and thus to escape competition for space. This adds to the second cause, kin competition avoidance where individuals in a crowded patch will benefit from the release of competition with relatives caused by dispersal. Dispersal may thus be viewed as an altruistic act. Third, dispersal might evolve as a strategy of avoiding inbred matings which are expected to bear fitness costs due to the presence of a mutation load. The interaction of inbreeding avoidance and kin competition is explored in chapter 2. Conditions conducive to the establishment of a high relatedness within population are expected to induce high dispersal through both kin competition avoidance and inbreeding avoidance. However, the dynamics of inbreeding depression is bound to depend on the level of gene flow as well as on the deleterious mutation parameters. Mutations more prone to settle a high level of inbreeding depression will select for increased dispersal. Chapter 3 investigates the effect of the mating system on the joint dynamics of dispersal and inbreeding depression. Higher inbreeding rates as those found in various mating systems lead to a more efficient purge of the deleterious mutations. However, this decrease in the costs of inbreeding are usually accompanied by a higher within deme relatedness which balances the decreased effect of inbreeding avoidance on the evolution of dispersal. Finally, population turnover, as found in most natural populations has a dual effect on dispersal. Indeed, it increases dispersal by the increased probability of winning a breeding slot in extinct demes it creates but, on the other hand, it counter-selects for dispersal through the slow establishment of unsaturated demic conditions which contribute to lower the local competition for space. Résumé Ce travail se propose d'étudier les effets conjoints des multiples causes de l'évolution de la dispersion en métapopulation. La dispersion, définie ici comme étant la capacité de quitter sa population d'origine pour se reproduire dans une antre population, possède trois principales causes. Premièrement, l'extinction aléatoire de populations sélectionne pour plus de dispersion car elle augmente la Probabilité de recoloniser un patch éteint et donc d'échapper à la compétition locale. La seconde cause, l'évitement de la compétition de parentèle, sélectionne pour plus de dispersion par les bénéfices qu'elle apporte par diminution de la compétition entre individus apparentés. Troisièmement, la dispersion évolue "comme stratégie d'évitement de la dépression de consanguinité présente dans des petites populations isolées. L'interaction entre l'évitement de la consanguinité et de la compétition de parentèle est étudiée dans le chapitre 2. Les conditions conduisant à l'établissement d'un fort apparentement à l'intérieur des populations sont celles qui génèrent le plus de sélection pour la dispersion. Cependant, la dynamique de la dépression de consanguinité est dépendante de la dispersion entre populations ainsi que des paramètres des mutations délétères. Les mutations créant le plus de dépression de consanguinité sont celles qui sélectionneront le plus pour de la dispersion. Le chapitre 3 s'intéresse aux effets du système de reproduction sur la dynamique conjointe du fardeau de mutation et de la dispersion. La purge des mutations délétère étant plus sévère dans des conditions de forte consanguinité, elle diminue les coûts de la consanguinité mais est habituellement accompagné par une augmentation de l'apparentement et donc l'effet peut être neutre sur la dispersion. Finalement, le turnover de populations a un effet dual sur la dispersion. La dispersion est sélectionnée par l'augmentation de la probabilité de gagner une place de reproduction dans des patchs éteints mais elle est également contre sélectionnée par la désaturation des patchs causée par l'extinction et la diminution de la compétition pour l'espace qui intervient dans ce cas.

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Public providers have no financial incentive to respect their legal obligation to exempt the poor from user fees. Health Equity Funds (HEFs) aim to make exemptions effective by giving NGOs responsibility for assessing eligibility and compensating providers for lost revenue. We use the geographic spread of HEFs over time in Cambodia to identify their impact on out-of-pocket (OOP) payments. Among households with some OOP payment, HEFs reduce the amount paid by 35%, on average. The effect is larger for households that are poorer and mainly use public health care. Reimbursement of providers through a government operated scheme also reduces household OOP payments but the effect is not as well targeted on the poor. Both compensation models raise household non-medical consumption but have no impact on health-related debt. HEFs reduce the probability of primarily seeking care in the private sector.

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AIM: To review the various pharmacological approaches currently proposed for the treatment of hypertension. RESULTS: With the evolution of pharmacological treatment of hypertension, various classes of agent (diuretics, beta-blockers, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors, calcium antagonists and alpha 1-blockers) have become available for the initiation of antihypertensive therapy. As monotherapy, each type of agent will normalize blood pressure in about half of all hypertensive patients. Replacing one drug with another that acts through a different mechanism improves the probability of controlling blood pressure. Another way to increase the number of responders is to increase the dose; however, this often results in more side effects. A preferable way of improving efficacy is to combine low doses of drugs that have different impacts on the cardiovascular system, thus opposing the compensatory responses that tend to limit the blood pressure drop. CONCLUSION: Low-dose drug combinations are generally well tolerated and the treatment of hypertension can be simplified by using fixed-dose combinations. These combinations have the potential to become a valuable alternative in the initiation of antihypertensive therapy.

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Position du problème: La mise en place de la tarification à l'activité pour les hôpitaux de court séjour pourrait entraîner une diminution des durées de séjour pour raisons financières. L'impact potentiel de ce phénomène sur la qualité des soins n'est pas connu. Les réadmissions identifiées à l'aide des données administratives hospitalières sont, pour certaines situations cliniques, des indicateurs de qualité des soins valides. Méthode: Étude rétrospective du lien entre la durée de séjour et la survenue de réadmissions imprévues liées au séjour initial, pour les cholécystectomies simples et les accouchements par voie basse sans complication, à partir des données du programme de médicalisation des systèmes d'information de l'Assistance publique-Hôpitaux de Paris des années 2002 à 2005. Résultats: Pour les deux procédures, la probabilité de réadmission suit une courbe en " J ". Après ajustement sur l'âge, le sexe, les comorbidités associées, l'hôpital et l'année d'admission, la probabilité de réadmission est plus élevée pour les durées de séjour les plus courtes : pour les cholécystectomies, odds ratio : 6,03 [IC95 % : 2,67-13,59] pour les hospitalisations d'un jour versus trois jours ; pour les accouchements, odds ratio : 1,74 [IC95 % : 1,05-2,91] pour les hospitalisations de deux jours versus trois jours. Conclusion: Pour deux pathologies communes, les durées de séjour les plus courtes sont associées à des probabilités de réadmission plus élevées. L'utilisation routinière des données du programme de médicalisation des systèmes d'information peut permettre d'assurer le suivi de la relation entre la réduction de la durée de séjour et les réadmissions. The prospective payment system for the French short-stay hospitals creates a financial incentive to reduce length of stay. The potential impact of the resulting decrease in length of stay on the quality of healthcare is unknown. Readmission rates are valid outcome indicators for some clinical procedures. Methods: Retrospective study of the association between length of stay and unplanned readmissions related to the initial stay, for two procedures: cholecystectomy and vaginal delivery. Data: Administrative diagnosis-related groups database of "Assistance publique-Hopitaux de Paris", a large teaching hospital, for years 2002 to 2005. Results: The risk of readmission according to length of stay, taking age, sex, comorbidity, hospital and year of admission into account, followed a J-shaped curve for both procedures. The probability of readmission was higher for very short stays, with odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals of 6.03 [2.67-13.59] for cholecystectomies (1- versus 3-night stays), and of 1.74 [1.05-2.91] for vaginal deliveries (2- versus 3-night stays). Conclusion: For both procedures, the shortest lengths of stay are associated with a higher readmission probability. Suitable indicators derived from administrative databases would enable monitoring of the association between length of stay and readmissions.

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Investigating the factors affecting the strength of sexual selection is important for understanding the evolution of sex-specific morphological and behavioural traits. Traditionally, sexual selection studies focus on male ornaments, although recent evidence indicates that sexual selection mechanisms also target organismal performance. In the present study, we investigated the role of sexually dimorphic morphological and performance traits of the common (viviparous) lizard (Zootoca vivipara, Jacquin 1787) with respect to determining mating behaviour. Using an experimental set-up controlling for size differences, we found that males with longer tails had a higher probability of mating a female. Unexpectedly, males with lower bite forces had an advantage over males with higher bite forces, whereas males with bigger heads copulated for a longer time with the female. This shows that predicting mating success is not straightforward and is sometimes counterintuitive because a longer tail appears to be beneficial, whereas biting harder is not, for male Z. vivipara in a male-female interaction context

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INTRODUCTION: The aim of the present study was to assess the association between remembered previous work place environment and return to work (RTW) after hospitalisation in a rehabilitation hospital. METHODS: A cohort of 291 orthopedic trauma patients discharged from hospital between 15 December 2004 and 31 December 2005 was included in a study addressing quality of life and work-related questions. Remembered previous work environment was measured by Karasek's 31-item Job Content Questionnaire (JCQ), given to the patients during hospitalisation. Post-hospitalisation work status was assessed 3 months, 1, and 2 years after discharge, using a questionnaire sent to the ex-patients. Logistic regression models were used to test the role of four JCQ variables on RTW at each time point while controlling for relevant confounders. RESULTS: Subjects perceiving a higher physical demand were less likely to return to work 1 year after hospital discharge. Social support at work was positively associated with RTW at all time points. A high job strain appeared to be positively associated with RTW 1 year after rehabilitation, with limitations due to large confidence intervals. CONCLUSIONS: Perceptions of previous work environment may influence the probability of RTW. In a rehabilitation setting, efforts should be made to assess those perceptions and, if needed, interventions to modify them should be applied.

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We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is inhabitated by two ethnic groups. Inter-ethnic trade requires imperfectly observed bilateral investments and one group has to form beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since conflict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals that the aggressor has a low propensity to trade. Agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over time, transmitting them to the next generation. The theory bears a set of testable predictions. First, war is a stochastic process whose frequency depends on the state of endogenous beliefs. Second, the probability of future conflicts increases after each conflict episode. Third, "accidental" conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent breakdown of trust, plunging a society into a vicious cycle of recurrent conflicts (a war trap). The incidence of conflict can be reduced by policies abating cultural barriers, fostering inter-ethnic trade and human capital, and shifting beliefs. Coercive peace policies such as peacekeeping forces or externally imposed regime changes have instead no persistent effects.

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Purpose: To analyse prospectively the long-term results of Gamma Knife surgery (GKS) in patients with trigeminal neuralgia secondary to megadolichobasilar artery (MBA). Methods: Between December 1992 and November 2010, 33 consecutive patients presenting with ITN secondary to MBA were operated by GKS and followed prospectively in Timone University Hospital. The follow up is at least of 1 year in 29 patients. The median age was 74.90 years (range 51 to 90). The GKS typically was performed using MR and CT imaging guidance and a single 4 mm isocenter. The median of the prescription dose (at the 100%) was 90 Gy (range 80 to 90). The target was placed on the cisternal portion of the Vth nerve. Clinical and dosimetric parameters were analyzed. GKS was the first surgical procedure in 23 patients (79.31%). Results: The median follow- up period was 46.12 months (range 12.95 to 157.93). All the 29 patients (100%) were initially pain free in a median time of 13.5 days (range 0 to 240). The probability of remaining pain free at 0.5, 1, 2 years was 93.1%, 79.3% and 75.7% respectively, reaching at this time the flat part of the curve. Seven patients (24.13%) experienced a recurrence with a median delay of 10.75 months (range 3.77 to 12.62). The actuarial rate of recurrence was not higher than in our population with essential TN although atypical pain was associated with a much higher risk of recurrence (HR= 6.92, p= 0.0117). The hypoesthesia actuarial rates at 0.5 years was 4.3% and at 1 year reach 13% and remains stable till 12 years with a median delay of onset of 7 (5, 12) months. Female patients had a statistically much lower probability of developing a facial numbness (p of 0.03). No patient reported a bothersome hypoesthesia. Conclusion: Retrogaserian, high dose GKS, turned out to be very safe with only 13.04% hypoesthesia, which was never disabling (0%), while achieving high quality pain control. The majority of the patients demonstrated a prolonged effect of radiosurgery in absence of any trigeminal nerve disturbance.

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BACKGROUND: Good adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is critical for successful HIV treatment. However, some patients remain virologically suppressed despite suboptimal adherence. We hypothesized that this could result from host genetic factors influencing drug levels. METHODS: Eligible individuals were Caucasians treated with efavirenz (EFV) and/or boosted lopinavir (LPV/r) with self-reported poor adherence, defined as missing doses of ART at least weekly for more than 6 months. Participants were genotyped for single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in candidate genes previously reported to decrease EFV (rs3745274, rs35303484, rs35979566 in CYP2B6) and LPV/r clearance (rs4149056 in SLCO1B1, rs6945984 in CYP3A, rs717620 in ABCC2). Viral suppression was defined as having HIV-1 RNA <400 copies/ml throughout the study period. RESULTS: From January 2003 until May 2009, 37 individuals on EFV (28 suppressed and 9 not suppressed) and 69 on LPV/r (38 suppressed and 31 not suppressed) were eligible. The poor adherence period was a median of 32 weeks with 18.9% of EFV and 20.3% of LPV/r patients reporting missed doses on a daily basis. The tested SNPs were not determinant for viral suppression. Reporting missing >1 dose/week was associated with a lower probability of viral suppression compared to missing 1 dose/week (EFV: odds ratio (OR) 0.11, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.01-0.99; LPV/r: OR 0.29, 95% CI: 0.09-0.94). In both groups, the probability of remaining suppressed increased with the duration of continuous suppression prior to the poor adherence period (EFV: OR 3.40, 95% CI: 0.62-18.75; LPV/r: OR 5.65, 95% CI: 1.82-17.56). CONCLUSIONS: The investigated genetic variants did not play a significant role in the sustained viral suppression of individuals with suboptimal adherence. Risk of failure decreased with longer duration of viral suppression in this population.

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OBJECTIVES: To investigate delayed HIV diagnosis and late initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: Two sub-populations were included: 1915 patients with HIV diagnosis from 1998 to 2007 and within 3 months of cohort registration (group A), and 1730 treatment-naïve patients with CD4>or=200 cells/microL before their second cohort visit (group B). In group A, predictors for low initial CD4 cell counts were examined with a median regression. In group B, we studied predictors for CD4<200 cells/microL without ART despite cohort follow-up. RESULTS: Median initial CD4 cell count in group A was 331 cells/microL; 31% and 10% were <200 and <50 cells/microL, respectively. Risk factors for low CD4 count were age and non-White race. Homosexual transmission, intravenous drug use and living alone were protective. In group B, 30% initiated ART with CD4>or=200 cells/microL; 18% and 2% dropped to CD4 <200 and <50 cells/microL without ART, respectively. Sub-Saharan origin was associated with lower probability of CD4 <200 cells/microL without ART during follow-up. Median CD4 count at ART initiation was 207 and 253 cells/microL in groups A and B, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: CD4<200 cells/microL and, particularly, CD4<50 cells/microL before starting ART are predominantly caused by late presentation. Earlier HIV diagnosis is paramount.

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Aims and background. In 2002, a survey including 1759 patients treated from 1980 to 1998 established a "benchmark" Italian data source for prostate cancer radiotherapy. This report updates the previous one. Methods. Data on clinical management and outcomes of 3001 patients treated in 15 centers from 1999 through 2003 were analyzed and compared with those of the previous survey. Results. Significant differences in clinical management (-10% had abdominal ma-gnetic resonance imaging; +26% received ≥70 Gy, +48% conformal radiotherapy, -20% pelvic radiotherapy) and in G3-4 toxicity rates (-3.8%) were recorded. Actuarial 5-year overall, disease-specific, clinical relapse-free, and biochemical relapse-free survival rates were 88%, 96%, 96% and 88%, respectively. At multivariate analysis, D'Amico risk categories significantly impacted on all the outcomes; higher radiotherapy doses were significantly related with better overall survival rates, and a similar trend was evident for disease-specific and biochemical relapse-free survival; cumulative probability of 5-year late G1-4 toxicity was 24.8% and was significantly related to higher radiotherapy doses (P <0.001). Conclusions. The changing patterns of practice described seem related to an improvement in efficacy and safety of radiotherapy for prostate cancer. However, the impact of the new radiotherapy techniques should be prospectively evaluated.