Molecular risk assessment of BIG 1-98 participants by expression profiling using RNA from archival tissue.

Background: The purpose of the work reported here is to test reliable molecular profiles using routinely processed formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissues from participants of the clinical trial BIG 1-98 with a median follow-up of 60 months. Methods: RNA from fresh frozen (FF) and FFPE tumor samples of 82 patients were used for quality control, and independent FFPE tissues of 342 postmenopausal participants of BIG 1-98 with ER-positive cancer were analyzed by measuring prospectively selected genes and computing scores representing the functions of the estrogen receptor (eight genes, ER_8), the progesterone receptor (five genes, PGR_5), Her2 (two genes, HER2_2), and proliferation (ten genes, PRO_10) by quantitative reverse transcription PCR (qRT-PCR) on TaqMan Low Density Arrays. Molecular scores were computed for each category and ER_8, PGR_5, HER2_2, and PRO_10 scores were combined into a RISK_25 score. Results: Pearson correlation coefficients between FF- and FFPE-derived scores were at least 0.94 and high concordance was observed between molecular scores and immunohistochemical data. The HER2_2, PGR_ 5, PRO_10 and RISK_25 scores were significant predictors of disease free-survival (DFS) in univariate Cox proportional hazard regression. PRO_10 and RISK_25 scores predicted DFS in patients with histological grade II breast cancer and in lymph node positive disease. The PRO_10 and PGR_ 5 scores were independent predictors of DFS in multivariate Cox regression models incorporating clinical risk indicators; PRO_10 outperformed Ki-67 labeling index in multivariate Cox proportional hazard analyses. Conclusions: Scores representing the endocrine responsiveness and proliferation status of breast cancers were developed from gene expression analyses based on RNA derived from FFPE tissues. The validation of the molecular scores with tumor samples of participants of the BIG 1-98 trial demonstrates that such scores can serve as independent prognostic factors to estimate disease free survival (DFS) in postmenopausal patients with estrogen receptor positive breast cancer.

Binary classification of dyslipidemia from the waist-to-hip ratio and body mass index: a comparison of linear, logistic, and CART models.

BACKGROUND: We sought to improve upon previously published statistical modeling strategies for binary classification of dyslipidemia for general population screening purposes based on the waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index anthropometric measurements. METHODS: Study subjects were participants in WHO-MONICA population-based surveys conducted in two Swiss regions. Outcome variables were based on the total serum cholesterol to high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio. The other potential predictor variables were gender, age, current cigarette smoking, and hypertension. The models investigated were: (i) linear regression; (ii) logistic classification; (iii) regression trees; (iv) classification trees (iii and iv are collectively known as "CART"). Binary classification performance of the region-specific models was externally validated by classifying the subjects from the other region. RESULTS: Waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index remained modest predictors of dyslipidemia. Correct classification rates for all models were 60-80%, with marked gender differences. Gender-specific models provided only small gains in classification. The external validations provided assurance about the stability of the models. CONCLUSIONS: There were no striking differences between either the algebraic (i, ii) vs. non-algebraic (iii, iv), or the regression (i, iii) vs. classification (ii, iv) modeling approaches. Anticipated advantages of the CART vs. simple additive linear and logistic models were less than expected in this particular application with a relatively small set of predictor variables. CART models may be more useful when considering main effects and interactions between larger sets of predictor variables.

Trabecular bone score improves fracture risk prediction in non-osteoporotic women: the OFELY study.

The use of areal bone mineral density (aBMD) for fracture prediction may be enhanced by considering bone microarchitectural deterioration. Trabecular bone score (TBS) helped in redefining a significant subset of non-osteoporotic women as a higher risk group. INTRODUCTION: TBS is an index of bone microarchitecture. Our goal was to assess the ability of TBS to predict incident fracture. METHODS: TBS was assessed in 560 postmenopausal women from the Os des Femmes de Lyon cohort, who had a lumbar spine (LS) DXA scan (QDR 4500A, Hologic) between years 2000 and 2001. During a mean follow-up of 7.8 ± 1.3 years, 94 women sustained 112 fragility fractures. RESULTS: At the time of baseline DXA scan, women with incident fracture were significantly older (70 ± 9 vs. 65 ± 8 years) and had a lower LS_aBMD and LS_TBS (both -0.4SD, p < 0.001) than women without fracture. The magnitude of fracture prediction was similar for LS_aBMD and LS_TBS (odds ratio [95 % confidence interval] = 1.4 [1.2;1.7] and 1.6 [1.2;2.0]). After adjustment for age and prevalent fracture, LS_TBS remained predictive of an increased risk of fracture. Yet, its addition to age, prevalent fracture, and LS_aBMD did not reach the level of significance to improve the fracture prediction. When using the WHO classification, 39 % of fractures occurred in osteoporotic women, 46 % in osteopenic women, and 15 % in women with T-score > -1. Thirty-seven percent of fractures occurred in the lowest quartile of LS_TBS, regardless of BMD. Moreover, 35 % of fractures that occurred in osteopenic women were classified below this LS_TBS threshold. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, LS_aBMD and LS_TBS predicted fractures equally well. In our cohort, the addition of LS_TBS to age and LS_aBMD added only limited information on fracture risk prediction. However, using the lowest quartile of LS_TBS helped in redefining a significant subset of non-osteoporotic women as a higher risk group which is important for patient management.

Does metabolic compensation explain the majority of less-than-expected weight loss in obese adults during a short-term severe diet and exercise intervention?

Objective:We investigated to what extent changes in metabolic rate and composition of weight loss explained the less-than-expected weight loss in obese men and women during a diet-plus-exercise intervention.Design:In all, 16 obese men and women (41±9 years; body mass index (BMI) 39±6 kg m(-2)) were investigated in energy balance before, after and twice during a 12-week very-low-energy diet(565-650 kcal per day) plus exercise (aerobic plus resistance training) intervention. The relative energy deficit (EDef) from baseline requirements was severe (74%-87%). Body composition was measured by deuterium dilution and dual energy X-ray absorptiometry, and resting metabolic rate (RMR) was measured by indirect calorimetry. Fat mass (FM) and fat-free mass (FFM) were converted into energy equivalents using constants 9.45 kcal per g FM and 1.13 kcal per g FFM. Predicted weight loss was calculated from the EDef using the '7700 kcal kg(-1) rule'.Results:Changes in weight (-18.6±5.0 kg), FM (-15.5±4.3 kg) and FFM (-3.1±1.9 kg) did not differ between genders. Measured weight loss was on average 67% of the predicted value, but ranged from 39% to 94%. Relative EDef was correlated with the decrease in RMR (R=0.70, P<0.01), and the decrease in RMR correlated with the difference between actual and expected weight loss (R=0.51, P<0.01). Changes in metabolic rate explained on average 67% of the less-than-expected weight loss, and variability in the proportion of weight lost as FM accounted for a further 5%. On average, after adjustment for changes in metabolic rate and body composition of weight lost, actual weight loss reached 90% of the predicted values.Conclusion:Although weight loss was 33% lower than predicted at baseline from standard energy equivalents, the majority of this differential was explained by physiological variables. Although lower-than-expected weight loss is often attributed to incomplete adherence to prescribed interventions, the influence of baseline calculation errors and metabolic downregulation should not be discounted.

A CMR study of the effects of tissue edema and necrosis on left ventricular dyssynchrony in acute myocardial infarction: implications for cardiac resynchronization therapy.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: In acute myocardial infarction (AMI), both tissue necrosis and edema are present and both might be implicated in the development of intraventricular dyssynchrony. However, their relative contribution to transient dyssynchrony is not known. Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) can detect necrosis and edema with high spatial resolution and it can quantify dyssynchrony by tagging techniques. METHODS: Patients with a first AMI underwent percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) of the infarct-related artery within 24 h of onset of chest pain. Within 5-7 days after the event and at 4 months, CMR was performed. The CMR protocol included the evaluation of intraventricular dyssynchrony by applying a novel 3D-tagging sequence to the left ventricle (LV) yielding the CURE index (circumferential uniformity ratio estimate; 1 = complete synchrony). On T2-weighted images, edema was measured as high-signal (>2 SD above remote tissue) along the LV mid-myocardial circumference on 3 short-axis images (% of circumference corresponding to the area-at-risk). In analogy, on late-gadolinium enhancement (LGE) images, necrosis was quantified manually as percentage of LV mid-myocardial circumference on 3 short-axis images. Necrosis was also quantified on LGE images covering the entire LV (expressed as %LV mass). Finally, salvaged myocardium was calculated as the area-at-risk minus necrosis (expressed as % of LV circumference). RESULTS: After successful PCI (n = 22, 2 female, mean age: 57 ± 12y), peak troponin T was 20 ± 36ug/l and the LV ejection fraction on CMR was 41 ± 8%. Necrosis mass was 30 ± 10% and CURE was 0.91 ± 0.05. Edema was measured as 58 ± 14% of the LV circumference. In the acute phase, the extent of edema correlated with dyssynchrony (r2 = -0.63, p < 0.01), while extent of necrosis showed borderline correlation (r2 = -0.19, p = 0.05). PCI resulted in salvaged myocardium of 27 ± 14%. LV dyssynchrony (=CURE) decreased at 4 months from 0.91 ± 0.05 to 0.94 ± 0.03 (p < 0.004, paired t-test). At 4 months, edema was absent and scar %LV slightly shrunk to 23.7 ± 10.0% (p < 0.002 vs baseline). Regression of LV dyssynchrony during the 4 months follow-up period was predicted by both, the extent of edema and its necrosis component in the acute phase. CONCLUSIONS: In the acute phase of infarction, LV dyssynchrony is closely related to the extent of edema, while necrosis is a poor predictor of acute LV dyssynchrony. Conversely, regression of intraventricular LV dyssynchrony during infarct healing is predicted by the extent of necrosis in the acute phase.

Paranasal sinuses in children: size evaluation of maxillary, sphenoid, and frontal sinuses by magnetic resonance imaging and proposal of volume index percentile curves.

Our objective was to establish the age-related 3D size of maxillary, sphenoid, and frontal sinuses. A total of 179 magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of children under 17 years (76 females, 103 males) were included and sinuses were measured in the three axes. Maxillary sinuses measured at birth (mean+/-standard deviation) 7.3+/-2.7 mm length (or antero-posterior)/4.0+/-0.9 mm height (or cranio-caudal)/2.7+/-0.8 mm width (or transverse). At 16 years old, maxillary sinus measured 38.8+/-3.5 mm/36.3+/-6.2 mm/27.5+/-4.2 mm. Sphenoid sinus pneumatization starts in the third year of life after conversion from red to fatty marrow with mean values of 5.8+/-1.4 mm/8.0+/-2.3 mm/5.8+/-1.0 mm. Pneumatization progresses gradually to reach at 16 years 23.0+/-4.5 mm/22.6+/-5.8 mm/12.8+/-3.1 mm. Frontal sinuses present a wide variation in size and most of the time are not valuable with routine head MRI techniques. They are not aerated before the age of 6 years. Frontal sinuses dimensions at 16 years were 12.8+/-5.0 mm/21.9+/-8.4 mm/24.5+/-13.3 mm. A sinus volume index (SVI) of maxillary and sphenoid sinus was computed using a simplified ellipsoid volume formula, and a table with SVI according to age with percentile variations is proposed for easy clinical application. Percentile curves of maxillary and sphenoid sinuses are presented to provide a basis for objective determination of sinus size and volume during development. These data are applicable to other techniques such as conventional X-ray and CT scan.

Validation of the instability shoulder index score in a multicenter reliability study in 114 consecutive cases.

BACKGROUND: Anterior shoulder stabilization surgery with the arthroscopic Bankart procedure can have a high recurrence rate in certain patients. Identifying these patients to modify outcomes has become a focal point of research. PURPOSE: The Instability Shoulder Index Score (ISIS) was developed to predict the success of arthroscopic Bankart repair. Scores range from 0 to 10, with higher scores predicting a higher risk of recurrence after stabilization. The interobserver reliability of the score is not known. STUDY DESIGN: Cohort study (diagnosis); Level of evidence, 2. METHODS: This is a prospective multicenter (North America and Europe) study of patients suffering from shoulder instability and waiting for stabilization surgery. Five pairs of independent evaluators were asked to score patient instability severity with the ISIS. Patients also completed functional scores (Western Ontario Shoulder Instability Index [WOSI], Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand-short version [QuickDASH], and Walch-Duplay test). Data on age, sex, number of dislocations, and type of surgery were collected. The test-retest method and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC: >0.75 = good, >0.85 = very good, and >0.9 = excellent) were used for analysis. RESULTS: A total of 114 patients with anterior shoulder instability were included, of whom 89 (78%) were men. The mean age was 28 years. The ISIS was very reliable, with an ICC of 0.933. The mean number of dislocations per patient was higher in patients who had an ISIS of ≥6 (25 vs 14; P = .05). Patients who underwent more complex arthroscopic procedures such as Hill-Sachs remplissage or open Latarjet had higher preoperative ISIS outcomes, with a mean score of 4.8 versus 3.4, respectively (P = .002). There was no correlation between the ISIS and the quality-of-life questionnaires, with Pearson correlations all >0.05 (WOSI = 0.39; QuickDASH = 0.97; Walch-Duplay = 0.08). CONCLUSION: Our results show that the ISIS is reliable when used in a multicenter study with anterior traumatic instability populations. There was no correlation between the ISIS and the quality-of-life questionnaires, but surgical decisions reflected its increased use.

Depression with atypical features and increase in obesity, body mass index, waist circumference, and fat mass: a prospective, population-based study.

IMPORTANCE: Depression and obesity are 2 prevalent disorders that have been repeatedly shown to be associated. However, the mechanisms and temporal sequence underlying this association are poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the subtypes of major depressive disorder (MDD; melancholic, atypical, combined, or unspecified) are predictive of adiposity in terms of the incidence of obesity and changes in body mass index (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared), waist circumference, and fat mass. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This prospective population-based cohort study, CoLaus (Cohorte Lausannoise)/PsyCoLaus (Psychiatric arm of the CoLaus Study), with 5.5 years of follow-up included 3054 randomly selected residents (mean age, 49.7 years; 53.1% were women) of the city of Lausanne, Switzerland (according to the civil register), aged 35 to 66 years in 2003, who accepted the physical and psychiatric baseline and physical follow-up evaluations. EXPOSURES: Depression subtypes according to the DSM-IV. Diagnostic criteria at baseline and follow-up, as well as sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle (alcohol and tobacco use and physical activity), and medication, were elicited using the semistructured Diagnostic Interview for Genetic Studies. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Changes in body mass index, waist circumference, and fat mass during the follow-up period, in percentage of the baseline value, and the incidence of obesity during the follow-up period among nonobese participants at baseline. Weight, height, waist circumference, and body fat (bioimpedance) were measured at baseline and follow-up by trained field interviewers. RESULTS: Only participants with the atypical subtype of MDD at baseline revealed a higher increase in adiposity during follow-up than participants without MDD. The associations between this MDD subtype and body mass index (β = 3.19; 95% CI, 1.50-4.88), incidence of obesity (odds ratio, 3.75; 95% CI, 1.24-11.35), waist circumference in both sexes (β = 2.44; 95% CI, 0.21-4.66), and fat mass in men (β = 16.36; 95% CI, 4.81-27.92) remained significant after adjustments for a wide range of possible cofounding. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The atypical subtype of MDD is a strong predictor of obesity. This emphasizes the need to identify individuals with this subtype of MDD in both clinical and research settings. Therapeutic measures to diminish the consequences of increased appetite during depressive episodes with atypical features are advocated.

Skinfold thickness and adiposity index in premature infants.

In order to assess the validity of the weight per square of length ratio as an index of adiposity during the neonatal period, 37 premature infants (gestational age, mean +/- SD, = 31.5 +/- 1.1 weeks, birthweight, mean +/- SD, = 1.448 +/- 147 g) were studied for weight, length and skinfold thickness at 5 sites (biceps, triceps, subscapular, suprailiac and quadriceps) during their stay in the Neonatal Unit of the University Hospital in Lausanne. The results show a significant correlation between the adiposity index and the sum of 5 skinfold thickness sites in premature infants. The adiposity index gives a fair estimate of the body fat mass during the postnatal growth in premature infants.

Population pharmacokinetic study of gentamicin: A retrospective analysis in a large cohort of neonate patients

Objectives: Gentamicin is one of the most commonly prescribed antibiotics for suspected or proven infection in newborns. Because of age-associated (pre- and post- natal) changes in body composition and organ function, large interindividual variability in gentamicin drug levels exists, thus requiring a close monitoring of this drug due to its narrow therapeutic index. We aimed to investigate clinical and demographic factors influencing gentamicin pharmacokinetics (PK) in a large cohort of unselected newborns and to explore optimal regimen based on simulation. Methods: All gentamicin concentration data from newborns treated at the University Hospital Center of Lausanne between December 2006 and October 2011 were retrieved. Gentamicin concentrations were measured within the frame of a routine therapeutic drug monitoring program, in which 2 concentrations (at 1h and 12h) are systematically collected after the first administered dose, and a few additional concentrations are sampled along the treatment course. A population PK analysis was performed by comparing various structural models, and the effect of clinical and demographic factors on gentamicin disposition was explored using NONMEM®. Results: A total of 3039 concentrations collected in 994 preterm (median gestational age 32.3 weeks, range 24.2-36.5 weeks) and 455 term newborns were used in the analysis. Most of the data (86%) were sampled after the first dose (C1 h and C12 h). A two-compartment model best characterized gentamicin PK. Average clearance (CL) was 0.044 L/h/kg (CV 25%), central volume of distribution (Vc) 0.442 L/kg (CV 18%), intercompartmental clearance (Q) 0.040 L/h/kg and peripheral volume of distribution (Vp) 0.122 L/kg. Body weight, gestational age and postnatal age positively influenced CL. The use of both gestational age and postnatal age better predicted CL than postmenstrual age alone. CL was affected by dopamine and furosemide administration and non-significantly by indometacin. Body weight, gestational age and dopamine coadminstration significantly influenced Vc. Model based simulation confirms that preterm infants need higher dose, superior to 4 mg/kg, and extended interval dosage regimen to achieve adequate concentration. Conclusions: This study, performed on a very large cohort of neonates, identified important factors influencing gentamicin PK. The model will serve to elaborate a Bayesian tool for dosage individualization based on a single measurement.

A meta-analysis of the association of fracture risk and body mass index in women.

Several recent studies suggest that obesity may be a risk factor for fracture. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between body mass index (BMI) and future fracture risk at different skeletal sites. In prospective cohorts from more than 25 countries, baseline data on BMI were available in 398,610 women with an average age of 63 (range, 20-105) years and follow up of 2.2 million person-years during which 30,280 osteoporotic fractures (6457 hip fractures) occurred. Femoral neck BMD was measured in 108,267 of these women. Obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m(2) ) was present in 22%. A majority of osteoporotic fractures (81%) and hip fractures (87%) arose in non-obese women. Compared to a BMI of 25 kg/m(2) , the hazard ratio (HR) for osteoporotic fracture at a BMI of 35 kg/m(2) was 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85-0.90). When adjusted for bone mineral density (BMD), however, the same comparison showed that the HR for osteoporotic fracture was increased (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.09-1.23). Low BMI is a risk factor for hip and all osteoporotic fracture, but is a protective factor for lower leg fracture, whereas high BMI is a risk factor for upper arm (humerus and elbow) fracture. When adjusted for BMD, low BMI remained a risk factor for hip fracture but was protective for osteoporotic fracture, tibia and fibula fracture, distal forearm fracture, and upper arm fracture. When adjusted for BMD, high BMI remained a risk factor for upper arm fracture but was also a risk factor for all osteoporotic fractures. The association between BMI and fracture risk is complex, differs across skeletal sites, and is modified by the interaction between BMI and BMD. At a population level, high BMI remains a protective factor for most sites of fragility fracture. The contribution of increasing population rates of obesity to apparent decreases in fracture rates should be explored. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Body mass index, abdominal adiposity and blood pressure: consistency of their association across developing and developed countries.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is increasing worldwide because developing countries are adopting Western high-fat foods and sedentary lifestyles. In parallel, in many of them, hypertension is rising more rapidly, particularly with age, than in Western countries. OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationship between adiposity and blood pressure (BP) in a developing country with high average BP (The Seychelles, Indian Ocean, population mainly of African origin) in comparison to a developed country with low average BP (Switzerland, population mainly of Caucasian origin). DESIGN: Cross-sectional health examination surveys based on population random samples. SETTING: The main Seychelles island (Mahé) and two Swiss regions (Vaud-Fribourg and Ticino). SUBJECTS: Three thousand one hundred and sixteen adults (age range 35-64) untreated for hypertension. MEASUREMENTS: Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP, mean of two measures). METHODS: Scatterplot smoothing techniques and gender-specific linear regression models. RESULTS: On average, SBP and DBP were found to increase linearly over the whole variation range of BMI, WHR and WC. A modest, but statistically significant linear association was found between each indicator of adiposity and BP levels in separate regression models controlling for age. The regression coefficients were not significantly different between the Seychelles and the two Swiss regions, but were generally higher in women than in men. For the latter, a gain of 1.7 kg/m(2) in BMI, of 4.5 cm in WC or of 3.4% in WHR corresponded to an elevation of 1 mmHg in SBP. For women, corresponding figures were 1.25 kg/m(2), 2.5 cm and 1.8% respectively. Regression coefficients for age reflected a higher effect of this variable on both SBP and DBP in the Seychelles than in Switzerland. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest a stable linear relation of adiposity with BP, independent of age and body fat distribution, across developed and developing countries. The more rapid increase of BP with age observed in the latter countries are likely to reflect higher genetic susceptibility and/or higher cumulative exposure to another risk factor than adiposity.

Differential energetic response of brain vs. skeletal muscle upon glycemic variations in healthy humans.

The brain regulates all metabolic processes within the organism, and therefore, its energy supply is preserved even during fasting. However, the underlying mechanism is unknown. Here, it is shown, using (31)P-magnetic resonance spectroscopy that during short periods of hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia, the brain can rapidly increase its high-energy phosphate content, whereas there is no change in skeletal muscle. We investigated the key metabolites of high-energy phosphate metabolism as rapidly available energy stores by (31)P MRS in brain and skeletal muscle of 17 healthy men. Measurements were performed at baseline and during dextrose or insulin-induced hyperglycemia and hypoglycemia. During hyperglycemia, phosphocreatine (PCr) concentrations increased significantly in the brain (P = 0.013), while there was a similar trend in the hypopglycemic condition (P = 0.055). Skeletal muscle content remained constant in both conditions (P > 0.1). ANOVA analyses comparing changes from baseline to the respective glycemic plateau in brain (up to +15%) vs. muscle (up to -4%) revealed clear divergent effects in both conditions (P < 0.05). These effects were reflected by PCr/Pi ratio (P < 0.05). Total ATP concentrations revealed the observed divergency only during hyperglycemia (P = 0.018). These data suggest that the brain, in contrast to peripheral organs, can activate some specific mechanisms to modulate its energy status during variations in glucose supply. A disturbance of these mechanisms may have far-reaching implications for metabolic dysregulation associated with obesity or diabetes mellitus.

Improved prediction of coronary heart disease with markers of atherosclerosis and of inflammation in older adults?

Background: Several markers of atherosclerosis and of inflammation have been shown to predict coronary heart disease (CHD) individually. However, the utility of markers of atherosclerosis and of inflammation on prediction of CHD over traditional risk factors has not been well established, especially in the elderly. Methods: We studied 2202 men and women, aged 70-79, without baseline cardiovascular disease over 6-year follow-up to assess the risk of incident CHD associated with baseline noninvasive measures of atherosclerosis (ankle-arm index [AAI], aortic pulse wave velocity [aPWV]) and inflammatory markers (interleukin-6 [IL-6], C-reactive protein [CRP], tumor necrosis factor-a [TNF-a]). CHD events were studied as either nonfatal myocardial infarction or coronary death ("hard" events), and "hard" events plus hospitalization for angina, or the need for coronary-revascularization procedures (total CHD events). Results: During the 6-year follow-up, 283 participants had CHD events (including 136 "hard" events). IL-6, TNF-a and AAI independently predicted CHD events above Framingham Risk Score (FRS) with hazard ratios [HR] for the highest as compared with the lowest quartile for IL-6 of 1.95 (95%CI: 1.38-2.75, p for trend <0.001), TNF-a of 1.45 (95%CI: 1.04-2.02, p for trend 0.03), of 1.66 (95%CI: 1.19-2.31) for AAI 0.9, as compared to AAI 1.01-1.30. CRP and aPWV were not independently associated with CHD events. Results were similar for "hard" CHD events. Addition of IL-6 and AAI to traditional cardiovascular risk factors yielded the greatest improvement in the prediction of CHD; C-index for "hard"/total CHD events increased from 0.62/0.62 for traditional risk factors to 0.64/0.64 for IL-6 addition, 0.65/0.63 for AAI, and 0.66/0.64 for IL-6 combined with AAI. Being in the highest quartile of IL-6 combined with an AAI 0.90 or >1.40 yielded an HR of 2.51 (1.50-4.19) and 4.55 (1.65-12.50) above FRS, respectively. With use of CHD risk categories, risk prediction at 5 years was more accurate in models that included IL-6, AAI or both, with 8.0, 8.3 and 12.1% correctly reclassified, respectively. Conclusions: Among older adults, markers of atherosclerosis and of inflammation, particularly IL-6 and AAI, are independently associated with CHD. However, these markers only modestly improve cardiovascular risk prediction beyond traditional risk factors.