87 resultados para nested multinomial logit
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In this study we tested whether communities of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) colonizing the roots of maize (Zea mays L.) were affected by soil tillage practices (plowing, chiseling, and no-till) in a long-term field experiment carried out in Tanikon (Switzerland). AMF were identified in the roots using specific polymerase chain reaction (PCR) markers that had been developed for the AMF previously isolated from the soils of the studied site. A nested PCR procedure with primers of increased specificity (eukaryotic, then, fungal, then AMF species or. species-grouop specific) was used. Sequencing of amplified DNA confirmed that the DNA obtained from the maize roots was of AMF origin. Presence of particular AMF species or species-group was scored as a presence of a DNA product after PCR with specific primers. We also used single-strand conformation polymorphism analysis (SSCP), of amplified DNA samples to-check if the amplification of the DNA from maize roots matched the expected profile for a particular AMF isolate with a given specific primer pair. Presence of the genus Scutellospora, in maize roots was strongly reduced in plowed and chiseled soils. Fungi from the suborder Glomineae were more prevalent colonizers of maize roots growing in plowed soils, but were also present in the roots from other tillage treatments. These changes in community of AMF colonizing maize roots might be due to (1), the differences in tolerance to the tillage-induced disruption of the hyphae among the different AMF species, (2) changes in nutrient content of the soil, (3) changes in microbial activity, or (4) changes in weed populations in response to soil tillage. This is the first report on community composition of AMF in the roots of a field-grown crop plant (maize) as affected by soil tillage.
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This nested case-control analysis of a Swiss ambulatory cohort of elderly women assessed the discriminatory power of urinary markers of bone resorption and heel quantitative ultrasound for non-vertebral fractures. The tests all discriminated between cases and controls, but combining the two strategies yielded no additional relevant information. INTRODUCTION: Data are limited regarding the combination of bone resorption markers and heel quantitative bone ultrasound (QUS) in the detection of women at risk for fracture. METHODS: In a nested case-control analysis, we studied 368 women (mean age 76.2 +/- 3.2 years), 195 with low-trauma non-vertebral fractures and 173 without, matched for age, BMI, medical center, and follow-up duration, from a prospective study designed to predict fractures. Urinary total pyridinolines (PYD) and deoxypyridinolines (DPD) were measured by high performance liquid chromatography. All women underwent bone evaluations using Achilles+ and Sahara heel QUS. RESULTS: Areas under the receiver operating-characteristic curve (AUC) for discriminative models of the fracture group, with 95% confidence intervals, were 0.62 (0.56-0.68) and 0.59 (0.53-0.65) for PYD and DPD, and 0.64 (0.58-0.69) and 0.65 (0.59-0.71) for Achilles+ and Sahara QUS, respectively. The combination of resorption markers and QUS added no significant discriminatory information to either measurement alone with an AUC of 0.66 (0.60-0.71) for Achilles+ with PYD and 0.68 (0.62-0.73) for Sahara with PYD. CONCLUSIONS: Urinary bone resorption markers and QUS are equally discriminatory between non-vertebral fracture patients and controls. However, the combination of bone resorption markers and QUS is not better than either test used alone.
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PURPOSE: To determine the characteristics specific to boys with disordered eating behaviors (DEB) and the general context in which these DEB occur. METHOD: Data were drawn from the SMASH02 database, a survey carried out among post-mandatory school students in Switzerland aged 16-20 years in 2002. Only males (N=3890) were included, and were classified into into one of four groups based on their level of concern about weight/food and on their eating behaviors, as follows: group 1: one concern without behavior (N=862); group 2: more than one concern without behavior (N=361); group 3: at least one behavior (N=798); and a control group (N=1869), according to previously validated items. Groups were compared for personal, family, school, experience of violence, and health-compromising behaviors variables on the bivariate level. All significant variables were included in a multinomial logistic regression using Stata 9 software. RESULTS: About one-half of the boys reported either a concern or unhealthy eating behavior. Compared with the control group, boys from the three groups were more likely to be students and to report a history of sexual abuse, delinquency, depression, and feeling fat. In addition, boys from group 3 were more likely to report a history of dieting, early puberty, peer teasing, having experienced violence, frequent inebriation, and being overweight. CONCLUSION: DEB concern adolescent males more frequently than thought and seem to be integrated in a general dysfunctional context, in which violence is predominant. Adolescent males also need to be screened for DEB. Moreover, prevention programs should target the increasing social and media pressure regarding boys ideal body shape and raise public consciousness about this phenomenon.
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Epigenetic silencing of the DNA repair protein O(6)-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) by promoter methylation predicts successful alkylating agent therapy, such as with temozolomide, in glioblastoma patients. Stratified therapy assignment of patients in prospective clinical trials according to tumor MGMT status requires a standardized diagnostic test, suitable for high-throughput analysis of small amounts of formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tumor tissue. A direct, real-time methylation-specific PCR (MSP) assay was developed to determine methylation status of the MGMT gene promoter. Assay specificity was obtained by selective amplification of methylated DNA sequences of sodium bisulfite-modified DNA. The copy number of the methylated MGMT promoter, normalized to the beta-actin gene, provides a quantitative test result. We analyzed 134 clinical glioma samples, comparing the new test with the previously validated nested gel-based MSP assay, which yields a binary readout. A cut-off value for the MGMT methylation status was suggested by fitting a bimodal normal mixture model to the real-time results, supporting the hypothesis that there are two distinct populations within the test samples. Comparison of the tests showed high concordance of the results (82/91 [90%]; Cohen's kappa = 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.82-0.95). The direct, real-time MSP assay was highly reproducible (Pearson correlation 0.996) and showed valid test results for 93% (125/134) of samples compared with 75% (94/125) for the nested, gel-based MSP assay. This high-throughput test provides an important pharmacogenomic tool for individualized management of alkylating agent chemotherapy.
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PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to explore the periodical patterns of events and deaths related to cardiovascular disease (CVD), acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke in Swiss adults (≥ 18 years). METHODS: Mortality data for period 1969-2007 (N=869,863 CVD events) and hospitalization data for period 1997-2008 (N=959,990 CVD events) were used. The annual, weekly and circadian distribution of CVD-related deaths and events were assessed. Multivariate analysis was conducted using multinomial logistic regression adjusting for age, gender and calendar year and considering deaths from respiratory diseases, accidents or other causes as competitive events. RESULTS: CVD deaths and hospitalizations occurred less frequently in the summer months. Similar patterns were found for AMI and stroke. No significant weekly variation for CVD deaths was found. Stratification by age and gender showed subjects aged <65 years to present a higher probability of dying on Mondays and Saturday, only for men. This finding was confirmed after multivariate adjustment. Finally, a circadian variation in CVD mortality was observed, with a first peak in the morning (8-12 am) and a smaller second peak in the late afternoon (2-6 pm). This pattern persisted after multivariate adjustment and was more pronounced for AMI than for stroke. CONCLUSION: There is a periodicity of hospitalizations and deaths related to CVD, AMI and stroke in Switzerland. This pattern changes slightly according to the age and sex of the subjects. Although the underlying mechanisms are not fully identified, preventive measures should take into account these aspects to develop better strategies of prevention and management of CVD.
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OBJECTIVE: To identify prevalence of and factors associated with intentional use of HIV risk reduction practices by men who have sex with men during anal intercourse with casual partners. METHODS: Cross-sectional survey pertaining to the Swiss HIV behavioral surveillance system, using an anonymous self-administered questionnaire in a self-selected sample of men who have sex with men (n = 2953). Multinomial regression was used to estimate factors associated with reporting either "no or inconsistent condom use" or "one or more risk reduction practices" over "consistent condom use." RESULTS: 57.2% reported anal intercourse with casual partner(s) over the last 12 months. Of these, 24.0% declared having used a risk reduction practice (73.8% of those who did not use condoms consistently). HIV-positive people were more likely to have done so. Most predictors were similarly associated to both regression categories. Four significant predictors were common to both regression categories: Internet partner seeking, age, age squared, and the interaction between HIV status positive and number of partners. The only association that differed markedly between the 2 regression categories was having a number of partners above median, significantly associated with the risk reduction category. CONCLUSIONS: Although condom use is the most frequent protection strategy in anal intercourse with casual partners, risk reduction practices are highly prevalent. However, there are no clear differences regarding predictors between risk reduction practices and inconsistent or no condom use. This suggests that risk reduction is an opportunistic response rather than a strategy per se.
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Fungi are divided in 3 groups in the field of medical mycology. The dermatophytes are filamentous fungi able to grow on keratinized tissues from human or animals. They are the main cause of superficial and cutaneous mycoses of the skin and its appendix (hair and nail). The yeasts, or dimorphic fungi, can be responsible of diverse types of infections (superficial to deep mycoses). The moulds include all Non-dermatophyte Filamentous Fungi (NDF). In medical mycology, the most representative moulds are Aspergillus spp., Fusarium spp. and Mucor spp. Diagnosis of mycosis is currently based on direct mycological examination of biological samples, as well as macroscopic and microscopic identification of the infectious fungus in culture assay. However, culture assays were found to remain sterile in roughly 40% of cases otherwise positive by direct mycological examinations. Additionally, results from culture assays are often difficult to interpret as various NDF are sometimes isolated. This thesis work is composed of three projects focusing on the development of new assays for direct in situ identification of fungi from dermatological samples. Part 1. A Polymerase Chain Reaction - Terminal Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism assay (PCR-TRFLP) targeting the 28S rDNA was developed to identify dermatophytes and NDF in nails with suspected onychomycosis. This method is faster and more efficient than culture. It further enables the distinction of more than one agent in case of mixed infection. A fast and reliable assay for the identification of dermatophytes and NDF in onychomycosis was found to be highly relevant since onychomycosis with Fusarium spp. or other NDF are weakly responsive or unresponsive to standard onychomycosis treatments with oral terbinafine and itraconazole. Part 2. A nested PCR-sequencing assay targeting the 28S rDNA was developed to identify dermatophyte species in skin and hair samples. This method is especially suitable for tinea capitis where dermatophytes identification is critical for subsequently prescribing the adequate treatment. The challenge presented when performing direct PCR fungi identification in skin and hair differs from that seen in onychomycosis as small amount of material is generally collected, few fungal elements are present in the clinical sample and one dermatophyte among a dozen species must be identified. Part 3. Fusarium spp. is currently isolated from nails with a frequency of 15% of that of dermatophytes in the laboratory of Mycology of the CHUV (2005-2012). The aim of this work was to examine if the intensive use of terbinafine and itraconazole could be a cause of the high incidence of Fusarium nail infections. For that purpose, two different methods, specific PCR and TRFLP, were used to detect both Fusarium spp. and Trichophyton spp. in nails of previously treated or untreated patients. TRFLP assay was found to be less sensitive than classical PCR assays specifically detecting Fusarium spp. or Trichophyton spp. Independently of the detection method used, the prevalence of Fusarium spp. appears not to be higher in patients previously treated by oral standard treatment with terbinafine and azoles which are highly effective to fight Trichophyton spp. in nails. In many cases Fusarium sp. was detected in samples of patients not previously subjected to antifungal therapy. Therefore, these treatments do not appear to favor the establishment of Fusarium spp. after elimination of a dermatophyte in nail infection. - En mycologie médicale, les champignons sont classés en 3 groupes. Les dermatophytes sont des champignons filamenteux capables de se développer dans les tissus kératinisés des hommes et des animaux, ils représentent la principale cause des mycoses superficielles et cutanées de la peau et de ses appendices (ongles et cheveux). Les levures, ou champignons dimorphiques, peuvent être responsables de divers types d'infections (superficielles à profondes). Les moisissures incluent tous les champignons filamenteux non-dermatophytes (NDF), les Aspergillus spp., les Fusarium spp. et les Mucor spp. sont les principales espèces rencontrées. Le diagnostic d'une mycose est basé sur un examen mycologique direct des prélèvements biologiques ainsi que sur l'identification macroscopique et microscopique du champignon infectieux isolé en culture. Cependant, dans environ 40% des cas, l'identification de l'agent pathogène est impossible par cette méthode car la culture reste stérile, bien que l'examen direct soit positif. De plus, la croissance de moisissures et/ou autres contaminants peut rendre l'interprétation de l'examen difficile. Ce travail de thèse est composé de trois projets focalisés sur le développement de nouvelles méthodes d'identification des champignons directement à partir d'échantillons dermatologiques. Projet 1. Une méthode de Réaction en chaîne de polymérase couplée à du polymorphisme de longueur des fragments de restriction terminaux (PCR-TRFLP), en ciblant l'ADN ribosomal 28S, a été développée pour l'identification des dermatophytes et moisissures dans les ongles avec suspicion d'onychomycoses. Cette technique s'est avérée plus rapide et plus efficace que la culture, permettant l'identification de plusieurs champignons en même temps. Posséder une méthode d'identification rapide et fiable des dermatophytes et des NDF dans les onychomycoses a été jugée nécessaire du fait que les Fusarium et d'autres NDF sont peu ou pas sensibles aux traitements oraux standards à la terbinafine et à Γ itraconazole. Projet 2. Une PCR nichée couplée au séquençage d'un fragment de l'ADN ribosomal 28S a été développée afin de différencier les dermatophytes dans la peau et les cheveux. Cette méthode est particulièrement adaptée au cas de tinea capitis, où l'identification du dermatophyte est essentielle afin de prescrire le traitement adéquat. Le problème de l'identification du pathogène fongique dans les cheveux et la peau diffère des onychomycoses car de petites quantités sont prélevées chez les patients, peu d'éléments fongiques sont présents et il faut discriminer un dermatophyte parmi une douzaine d'espèces potentielles. Projet 3. Au laboratoire de Mycologie du CHUV, les Fusarium ont été isolé dans les ongles à une fréquence de 15% pour la période 2005-2012. Le but de ce travail était d'examiner si l'utilisation intensive de terbinafine et d'itraconazole pouvait être une des causes de la forte incidence des infections des ongles par Fusarium. A cet effet, deux méthodes ont été utilisées pour détecter à la fois Fusarium spp. et Trichophyton spp., la PCR spécifique et le TRFLP. Indépendamment de la méthode choisie, il en résulte que la prévalence des Fusarium η'apparaît pas liée à un traitement au préalable des patients avec de la terbinafine ou des azoles, thérapies très efficaces contre les Trichophyton spp. dans les ongles. De plus, il existe de nombreux cas où Fusarium était détecté chez des patients non traités.
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Résumé La diminution de la biodiversité, à toutes les échelles spatiales et sur l'ensemble de la planète, compte parmi les problèmes les plus préoccupants de notre époque. En terme de conservation, il est aujourd'hui primordial de mieux comprendre les mécanismes qui créent et maintiennent la biodiversité dans les écosystèmes naturels ou anthropiques. La présente étude a pour principal objectif d'améliorer notre compréhension des patrons de biodiversité végétale et des mécanismes sous jacents, dans un écosystème complexe, riche en espèces et à forte valeur patrimoniale, les pâturages boisés jurassiens. Structure et échelle spatiales sont progressivement reconnues comme des dimensions incontournables dans l'étude des patrons de biodiversité. De plus, ces deux éléments jouent un rôle central dans plusieurs théories écologiques. Toutefois, peu d'hypothèses issues de simulations ou d'études théoriques concernant le lien entre structure spatiale du paysage et biodiversité ont été testées de façon empirique. De même, l'influence des différentes composantes de l'échelle spatiale sur les patrons de biodiversité est méconnue. Cette étude vise donc à tester quelques-unes de ces hypothèses et à explorer les patrons spatiaux de biodiversité dans un contexte multi-échelle, pour différentes mesures de biodiversité (richesse et composition en espèces) à l'aide de données de terrain. Ces données ont été collectées selon un plan d'échantillonnage hiérarchique. Dans un premier temps, nous avons testé l'hypothèse élémentaire selon laquelle la richesse spécifique (le nombre d'espèces sur une surface donnée) est liée à l'hétérogénéité environnementale quelque soit l'échelle. Nous avons décomposé l'hétérogénéité environnementale en deux parties, la variabilité des conditions environnementales et sa configuration spatiale. Nous avons montré que, en général, la richesse spécifique augmentait avec l'hétérogénéité de l'environnement : elle augmentait avec le nombre de types d'habitats et diminuait avec l'agrégation spatiale de ces habitats. Ces effets ont été observés à toutes les échelles mais leur nature variait en fonction de l'échelle, suggérant une modification des mécanismes. Dans un deuxième temps, la structure spatiale de la composition en espèces a été décomposée en relation avec 20 variables environnementales et 11 traits d'espèces. Nous avons utilisé la technique de partition de la variation et un descripteur spatial, récemment développé, donnant accès à une large gamme d'échelles spatiales. Nos résultats ont montré que la structure spatiale de la composition en espèces végétales était principalement liée à la topographie, aux échelles les plus grossières, et à la disponibilité en lumière, aux échelles les plus fines. La fraction non-environnementale de la variation spatiale de la composition spécifique avait une relation complexe avec plusieurs traits d'espèces suggérant un lien avec des processus biologiques tels que la dispersion, dépendant de l'échelle spatiale. Dans un dernier temps, nous avons testé, à plusieurs échelles spatiales, les relations entre trois composantes de la biodiversité : la richesse spécifique totale d'un échantillon (diversité gamma), la richesse spécifique moyenne (diversité alpha), mesurée sur des sous-échantillons, et les différences de composition spécifique entre les sous-échantillons (diversité beta). Les relations deux à deux entre les diversités alpha, beta et gamma ne suivaient pas les relations attendues, tout du moins à certaines échelles spatiales. Plusieurs de ces relations étaient fortement dépendantes de l'échelle. Nos résultats ont mis en évidence l'importance du rapport d'échelle (rapport entre la taille de l'échantillon et du sous-échantillon) lors de l'étude des patrons spatiaux de biodiversité. Ainsi, cette étude offre un nouvel aperçu des patrons spatiaux de biodiversité végétale et des mécanismes potentiels permettant la coexistence des espèces. Nos résultats suggèrent que les patrons de biodiversité ne peuvent être expliqués par une seule théorie, mais plutôt par une combinaison de théories. Ils ont également mis en évidence le rôle essentiel joué par la structure spatiale dans la détermination de la biodiversité, quelque soit le composant de la biodiversité considéré. Enfin, cette étude souligne l'importance de prendre en compte plusieurs échelles spatiales et différents constituants de l'échelle spatiale pour toute étude relative à la diversité spécifique. Abstract The world-wide loss of biodiversity at all scales has become a matter of urgent concern, and improving our understanding of local drivers of biodiversity in natural and anthropogenic ecosystems is now crucial for conservation. The main objective of this study was to further our comprehension of the driving forces controlling biodiversity patterns in a complex and diverse ecosystem of high conservation value, wooded pastures. Spatial pattern and scale are central to several ecological theories, and it is increasingly recognized that they must be taken -into consideration when studying biodiversity patterns. However, few hypotheses developed from simulations or theoretical studies have been tested using field data, and the evolution of biodiversity patterns with different scale components remains largely unknown. We test several such hypotheses and explore spatial patterns of biodiversity in a multi-scale context and using different measures of biodiversity (species richness and composition), with field data. Data were collected using a hierarchical sampling design. We first tested the simple hypothesis that species richness, the number of species in a given area, is related to environmental heterogeneity at all scales. We decomposed environmental heterogeneity into two parts: the variability of environmental conditions and its spatial configuration. We showed that species richness generally increased with environmental heterogeneity: species richness increased with increasing number of habitat types and with decreasing spatial aggregation of those habitats. Effects occurred at all scales but the nature of the effect changed with scale, suggesting a change in underlying mechanisms. We then decomposed the spatial structure of species composition in relation to environmental variables and species traits using variation partitioning and a recently developed spatial descriptor, allowing us to capture a wide range of spatial scales. We showed that the spatial structure of plant species composition was related to topography at the coarsest scales and insolation at finer scales. The non-environmental fraction of the spatial variation in species composition had a complex relationship with several species traits, suggesting a scale-dependent link to biological processes, particularly dispersal. Finally, we tested, at different spatial scales, the relationships between different components of biodiversity: total sample species richness (gamma diversity), mean species .richness (alpha diversity), measured in nested subsamples, and differences in species composition between subsamples (beta diversity). The pairwise relationships between alpha, beta and gamma diversity did not follow the expected patterns, at least at certain scales. Our result indicated a strong scale-dependency of several relationships, and highlighted the importance of the scale ratio when studying biodiversity patterns. Thus, our results bring new insights on the spatial patterns of biodiversity and the possible mechanisms allowing species coexistence. They suggest that biodiversity patterns cannot be explained by any single theory proposed in the literature, but a combination of theories is sufficient. Spatial structure plays a crucial role for all components of biodiversity. Results emphasize the importance of considering multiple spatial scales and multiple scale components when studying species diversity.
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Aim To assess the geographical transferability of niche-based species distribution models fitted with two modelling techniques. Location Two distinct geographical study areas in Switzerland and Austria, in the subalpine and alpine belts. Methods Generalized linear and generalized additive models (GLM and GAM) with a binomial probability distribution and a logit link were fitted for 54 plant species, based on topoclimatic predictor variables. These models were then evaluated quantitatively and used for spatially explicit predictions within (internal evaluation and prediction) and between (external evaluation and prediction) the two regions. Comparisons of evaluations and spatial predictions between regions and models were conducted in order to test if species and methods meet the criteria of full transferability. By full transferability, we mean that: (1) the internal evaluation of models fitted in region A and B must be similar; (2) a model fitted in region A must at least retain a comparable external evaluation when projected into region B, and vice-versa; and (3) internal and external spatial predictions have to match within both regions. Results The measures of model fit are, on average, 24% higher for GAMs than for GLMs in both regions. However, the differences between internal and external evaluations (AUC coefficient) are also higher for GAMs than for GLMs (a difference of 30% for models fitted in Switzerland and 54% for models fitted in Austria). Transferability, as measured with the AUC evaluation, fails for 68% of the species in Switzerland and 55% in Austria for GLMs (respectively for 67% and 53% of the species for GAMs). For both GAMs and GLMs, the agreement between internal and external predictions is rather weak on average (Kulczynski's coefficient in the range 0.3-0.4), but varies widely among individual species. The dominant pattern is an asymmetrical transferability between the two study regions (a mean decrease of 20% for the AUC coefficient when the models are transferred from Switzerland and 13% when they are transferred from Austria). Main conclusions The large inter-specific variability observed among the 54 study species underlines the need to consider more than a few species to test properly the transferability of species distribution models. The pronounced asymmetry in transferability between the two study regions may be due to peculiarities of these regions, such as differences in the ranges of environmental predictors or the varied impact of land-use history, or to species-specific reasons like differential phenotypic plasticity, existence of ecotypes or varied dependence on biotic interactions that are not properly incorporated into niche-based models. The lower variation between internal and external evaluation of GLMs compared to GAMs further suggests that overfitting may reduce transferability. Overall, a limited geographical transferability calls for caution when projecting niche-based models for assessing the fate of species in future environments.
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Well-established associations between reproductive characteristics and epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) support an involvement of sex steroid hormones in the etiology of EOC. Limited previous studies have evaluated circulating androgens and the risk of EOC, and estrogens and progesterone have been investigated in only one of the previous studies. Furthermore, there is little data on potential heterogeneity in the association between circulating hormones and EOC by histological subgroup. Therefore, we conducted a nested case-control study within the Finnish Maternity Cohort and the Northern Sweden Maternity Cohort to investigate the associations between circulating pre-diagnostic sex steroid concentrations and the histological subtypes of EOC. We identified 1052 EOC cases among cohort members diagnosed after recruitment (1975-2008) and before March 2011. Up to three controls were individually matched to each case (n=2694). Testosterone, androstenedione, 17-hydroxyprogesterone (17-OHP), progesterone, estradiol (E2), and sex hormone-binding globulin levels were measured in serum samples collected during the last pregnancy before EOC diagnosis. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs. Associations between hormones and EOC differed with respect to tumor histology and invasiveness. Sex steroid concentrations were not associated with invasive serous tumors; however, doubling of testosterone and 17-OHP concentration was associated with approximately 40% increased risk of borderline serous tumors. A doubling of androgen concentrations was associated with a 50% increased risk of mucinous tumors. The risk of endometrioid tumors increased with higher E2 concentrations (OR: 1.89 (1.20-2.98)). This large prospective study in pregnant women supports a role of sex steroid hormones in the etiology of EOC arising in the ovaries.
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When individuals learn by trial-and-error, they perform randomly chosen actions and then reinforce those actions that led to a high payoff. However, individuals do not always have to physically perform an action in order to evaluate its consequences. Rather, they may be able to mentally simulate actions and their consequences without actually performing them. Such fictitious learners can select actions with high payoffs without making long chains of trial-and-error learning. Here, we analyze the evolution of an n-dimensional cultural trait (or artifact) by learning, in a payoff landscape with a single optimum. We derive the stochastic learning dynamics of the distance to the optimum in trait space when choice between alternative artifacts follows the standard logit choice rule. We show that for both trial-and-error and fictitious learners, the learning dynamics stabilize at an approximate distance of root n/(2 lambda(e)) away from the optimum, where lambda(e) is an effective learning performance parameter depending on the learning rule under scrutiny. Individual learners are thus unlikely to reach the optimum when traits are complex (n large), and so face a barrier to further improvement of the artifact. We show, however, that this barrier can be significantly reduced in a large population of learners performing payoff-biased social learning, in which case lambda(e) becomes proportional to population size. Overall, our results illustrate the effects of errors in learning, levels of cognition, and population size for the evolution of complex cultural traits. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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We construct a rich dataset covering 47 developing countries over the years 1990-2007, combining several micro and macro level data sources to explore the link between political factors and body mass index (BMI). We implement a heteroskedastic generalized ordered logit model allowing for different covariate effects across the BMI distribution and accounting for the unequal BMI dispersion by geographical area. We find that systems with democratic qualities are more likely to reduce under-weight, but increase overweight/obesity, whereas effective political competition does entail double-benefits in the form of reducing both under-weight and obesity. Our results are robust to the introduction of country fixed effects.
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BACKGROUND: Sex steroid hormones have been proposed to play a role in the development of non-epithelial ovarian cancers (NEOC) but so far no direct epidemiological data are available.METHODS: A case-control study was nested within the Finnish Maternity Cohort, the world's largest bio-repository of serum specimens from pregnant women. Study subjects were selected among women who donated a blood sample during a singleton pregnancy that led to the birth of their last child preceding diagnosis of NEOC. Case subjects were 41 women with sex-cord stromal tumors (SCST) and 21 with germ cell tumors (GCT). Three controls, matching the index case for age, parity at the index pregnancy, and date at blood donation were selected (n=171). Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) associated with concentrations of testosterone, androstenedione, 17-OH-progesterone, progesterone, estradiol and sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) were estimated through conditional logistic regression.RESULTS: For SCST, doubling of testosterone, androstenedione and 17-OH-progesterone concentrations were associated with about 2-fold higher risk of SCST [ORs and 95% CI of 2.16 (1.25-3.74), 2.16 (1.20-3.87), and 2.62 (1.27-5.38), respectively]. These associations remained largely unchanged after excluding women within 2, 4 or 6 years lag-time between blood donation and cancer diagnosis. Sex steroid hormones concentrations were not related to maternal risk of GCT.CONCLUSIONS: This is the first prospective study providing initial evidence that elevated androgens play a role in the pathogenesis of SCST. Impact: Our study may note a particular need for larger confirmatory investigations on sex steroids and NEOC.
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INTRODUCTION: Young cannabis users are at increased risk of later cigarette initiation and progression to nicotine addiction. The present study addresses the frequency at which mulling (adding tobacco to cannabis smoked as joints) is performed and in which way this practice varies according to cigarette smoking status. METHODS: Data were issued from the Swiss 2007 European School Survey Project on Alcohol and other Drugs (ESPAD). A total of 881 past month cannabis users (mean age 15 years, boys 60.1%) were inquired on mulling using an anonymous self-administered questionnaire. Participants were further grouped according to their cigarette smoking status (daily, occasional, former, and never-smokers). RESULTS: Four of every 5 cannabis users depicted mulling as frequently performed. The highest occurrence was found among daily cigarette smokers (DSC; 90.3%), while former cigarette smokers reported the lowest (58.9%). The multinomial logistic regression showed DSC more likely reporting mulling as frequent compared with never-smokers (risk ratio = 3.56 [95% CI 1.55-8.21]). Conclusions: Mulling appears to be a very common process among young cannabis users, especially among concomitant cigarette smokers. Nevertheless, the majority of cigarette abstainers also reported frequently adding tobacco to the cannabis they smoke. Because it may represent a significant exposition to nicotine, mulling should be taken into account when assessing substance use among adolescents and in supporting their quitting attempts.
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Progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) is a frequently fatal disease caused by uncontrolled polyomavirus JC (JCV) in severely immunodeficient patients. We investigated the JCV-specific cellular and humoral immunity in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. We identified PML cases (n = 29), as well as three matched controls per case (n = 87), with prospectively cryopreserved peripheral blood mononuclear cells and plasma at diagnosis. Nested controls were matched according to age, gender, CD4(+) T-cell count, and decline. Survivors (n = 18) were defined as being alive for >1 year after diagnosis. Using gamma interferon enzyme-linked immunospot assays, we found that JCV-specific T-cell responses were lower in nonsurvivors than in their matched controls (P = 0.08), which was highly significant for laboratory- and histologically confirmed PML cases (P = 0.004). No difference was found between PML survivors and controls or for cytomegalovirus-specific T-cell responses. PML survivors showed significant increases in JCV-specific T cells (P = 0.04) and immunoglobulin G (IgG) responses (P = 0.005). IgG responses in survivors were positively correlated with CD4(+) T-cell counts (P = 0.049) and negatively with human immunodeficiency virus RNA loads (P = 0.03). We conclude that PML nonsurvivors had selectively impaired JCV-specific T-cell responses compared to CD4(+) T-cell-matched controls and failed to mount JCV-specific antibody responses. JCV-specific T-cell and IgG responses may serve as prognostic markers for patients at risk.