Are the Policy Preferences of Relatively Poor Citizens Under-represented in the Swiss Parliament?

The principle of equal political representation can be undermined by differences in economic resources among citizens. Poor citizens are likely to hold policy preferences that differ from those of richer citizens. At the same time, their lack of resources can have as a consequence that these preferences are not taken into consideration by their representatives. Focusing on the case of the Swiss Parliament and using survey data on the opinions of citizens and MPs in the 2007-2011 legislature, this study investigates whether the income of citizens systematically affects the proximity of their policy preferences with stances of their representatives. It demonstrates that on economic issues MPs hold preferences that are generally less in favour of the state's intervention in the economy than the median citizen and that relatively poor citizens are less well represented as compared to citizens with high incomes. This remains true when taking into account only the opinions of the most knowledgeable citizens among these groups as well as when the focus is only on those who turned out to vote.

Unorthodox Humeanism

The thesis is situated in the domain of contemporary metaphysics of science. The question is which ontology fits best with our knowledge of the world. The method chosen is the one of evaluating the consequences of different ontological frameworks against the background of our scientific knowledge of the world. The thesis analyses the two main frameworks in today's metaphysics of science, Humeanism and dispositionalism. It advocates that only an unorthodox version of Humeanism and only an unorthodox version of dispositionalism can be defended, the unorthodox character of these versions consisting in taking the fundamental properties to be relations rather than intrinsic properties. The thesis then sets out in detail what such an unorthodox version of Humeanism amounts to. Chapters 1 and 2 introduce the standard versions of Humeanism and dispositionalism, focussing on the accounts of laws of nature and causation. Chapter 3 compares both these positions and concludes that as far as the orthodox versions are concerned, dispositionalism fares better than Humeanism, since it can avoid Humeanism's commitments to quidditism and humility. However, as is argued in chapter 4, instead of replying to the objections from quidditism and humility by switching to dispositionalism, there is an unorthodox version of Humeanism available that does not run into these problematic consequences and that is supported by science: if one takes the fundamental physical properties to be relations instead of intrinsic properties, the objection from quidditism is avoided, since there is no hidden intrinsic essence of relations. As regards the objection from humility, one can maintain that science is in principle able to provide knowledge of the fundamental relations that there are in the world so that there is no principled ignorance. Consequently, the thesis concludes that Humeanism and dispositionalism are on a par as regards the remaining charge of humility. Unorthodox Humeanism provides a competitive and adequate ontology in the light of contemporary science.

Quantifying ChIP-seq data: a spiking method providing an internal reference for sample-to-sample normalization.

Chromatin immunoprecipitation followed by deep sequencing (ChIP-seq) experiments are widely used to determine, within entire genomes, the occupancy sites of any protein of interest, including, for example, transcription factors, RNA polymerases, or histones with or without various modifications. In addition to allowing the determination of occupancy sites within one cell type and under one condition, this method allows, in principle, the establishment and comparison of occupancy maps in various cell types, tissues, and conditions. Such comparisons require, however, that samples be normalized. Widely used normalization methods that include a quantile normalization step perform well when factor occupancy varies at a subset of sites, but may miss uniform genome-wide increases or decreases in site occupancy. We describe a spike adjustment procedure (SAP) that, unlike commonly used normalization methods intervening at the analysis stage, entails an experimental step prior to immunoprecipitation. A constant, low amount from a single batch of chromatin of a foreign genome is added to the experimental chromatin. This "spike" chromatin then serves as an internal control to which the experimental signals can be adjusted. We show that the method improves similarity between replicates and reveals biological differences including global and largely uniform changes.

Robust synchronization of coupled circadian and cell cycle oscillators in single mammalian cells.

Circadian cycles and cell cycles are two fundamental periodic processes with a period in the range of 1 day. Consequently, coupling between such cycles can lead to synchronization. Here, we estimated the mutual interactions between the two oscillators by time-lapse imaging of single mammalian NIH3T3 fibroblasts during several days. The analysis of thousands of circadian cycles in dividing cells clearly indicated that both oscillators tick in a 1:1 mode-locked state, with cell divisions occurring tightly 5 h before the peak in circadian Rev-Erbα-YFP reporter expression. In principle, such synchrony may be caused by either unidirectional or bidirectional coupling. While gating of cell division by the circadian cycle has been most studied, our data combined with stochastic modeling unambiguously show that the reverse coupling is predominant in NIH3T3 cells. Moreover, temperature, genetic, and pharmacological perturbations showed that the two interacting cellular oscillators adopt a synchronized state that is highly robust over a wide range of parameters. These findings have implications for circadian function in proliferative tissues, including epidermis, immune cells, and cancer.

Natural genetic variation of root system architecture from Arabidopsis to Brachypodium: towards adaptive value.

Root system architecture is a trait that displays considerable plasticity because of its sensitivity to environmental stimuli. Nevertheless, to a significant degree it is genetically constrained as suggested by surveys of its natural genetic variation. A few regulators of root system architecture have been isolated as quantitative trait loci through the natural variation approach in the dicotyledon model, Arabidopsis. This provides proof of principle that allelic variation for root system architecture traits exists, is genetically tractable, and might be exploited for crop breeding. Beyond Arabidopsis, Brachypodium could serve as both a credible and experimentally accessible model for root system architecture variation in monocotyledons, as suggested by first glimpses of the different root morphologies of Brachypodium accessions. Whether a direct knowledge transfer gained from molecular model system studies will work in practice remains unclear however, because of a lack of comprehensive understanding of root system physiology in the native context. For instance, apart from a few notable exceptions, the adaptive value of genetic variation in root system modulators is unknown. Future studies should thus aim at comprehensive characterization of the role of genetic players in root system architecture variation by taking into account the native environmental conditions, in particular soil characteristics.

Connectivity differences in brain networks.

The scenario considered here is one where brain connectivity is represented as a network and an experimenter wishes to assess the evidence for an experimental effect at each of the typically thousands of connections comprising the network. To do this, a univariate model is independently fitted to each connection. It would be unwise to declare significance based on an uncorrected threshold of α=0.05, since the expected number of false positives for a network comprising N=90 nodes and N(N-1)/2=4005 connections would be 200. Control of Type I errors over all connections is therefore necessary. The network-based statistic (NBS) and spatial pairwise clustering (SPC) are two distinct methods that have been used to control family-wise errors when assessing the evidence for an experimental effect with mass univariate testing. The basic principle of the NBS and SPC is the same as supra-threshold voxel clustering. Unlike voxel clustering, where the definition of a voxel cluster is unambiguous, 'clusters' formed among supra-threshold connections can be defined in different ways. The NBS defines clusters using the graph theoretical concept of connected components. SPC on the other hand uses a more stringent pairwise clustering concept. The purpose of this article is to compare the pros and cons of the NBS and SPC, provide some guidelines on their practical use and demonstrate their utility using a case study involving neuroimaging data.

The prosecution service function within the spanish criminal justice system

The Spanish judicial system is independent and headed by the Supreme Court. Spain has a civil law system. The criminal procedure is governed by the legality principle--by opposition to the opportunity or expediency principle--which implies that prosecution must take place in all cases in which sufficient evidence exists of guilt. Traditionally, the role of the PPS in Spain has been very limited during the investigative stage of the process. That stage is under the responsibility of the Examining Magistrate (EM). Since the end of the 1980s, a series of modifications has been introduced in order to extend the functions of the PPS. In 1988, the PPS received extended competences which allow them to receive reports of offenses. Upon knowing of an offense (reported or known to have been committed), the PPS can initiate the criminal proceeding. The PPS is also allowed to lead a sort of plea bargain under a series of restrictive conditions and only for some offenses. At the same time, the PPS received extended competences in the juvenile justice criminal proceeding in 2000. With all this said, the role of the PPS has not changed radically and, during the investigative stage of the process, their main role remains the presentation of the accusation, playing a more active role during the trial stage of the proceeding. In this article the national criminal justice system of Spain is described. Special attention is paid to the function of the PPS within this framework and its relationship to police and courts. The article refers to legal provisions and the factual handling of criminal cases.

'Doctor, what would you do in my position?' Health professionals and the decision-making process in pregnancy monitoring.

OBJECTIVE: Routine prenatal screening for Down syndrome challenges professional non-directiveness and patient autonomy in daily clinical practices. This paper aims to describe how professionals negotiate their role when a pregnant woman asks them to become involved in the decision-making process implied by screening. METHODS: Forty-one semi-structured interviews were conducted with gynaecologists-obstetricians (n=26) and midwives (n=15) in a large Swiss city. RESULTS: Three professional profiles were constructed along a continuum that defines the relative distance or proximity towards patients' demands for professional involvement in the decision-making process. The first profile insists on enforcing patient responsibility, wherein the healthcare provider avoids any form of professional participation. A second profile defends the idea of a shared decision making between patients and professionals. The third highlights the intervening factors that justify professionals' involvement in decisions. CONCLUSIONS: These results illustrate various applications of the principle of autonomy and highlight the complexity of the doctor-patient relationship amidst medical decisions today.

Non-invasive and non-occlusive blood pressure estimation via a chest sensor.

The clinical demand for a device to monitor Blood Pressure (BP) in ambulatory scenarios with minimal use of inflation cuffs is increasing. Based on the so-called Pulse Wave Velocity (PWV) principle, this paper introduces and evaluates a novel concept of BP monitor that can be fully integrated within a chest sensor. After a preliminary calibration, the sensor provides non-occlusive beat-by-beat estimations of Mean Arterial Pressure (MAP) by measuring the Pulse Transit Time (PTT) of arterial pressure pulses travelling from the ascending aorta towards the subcutaneous vasculature of the chest. In a cohort of 15 healthy male subjects, a total of 462 simultaneous readings consisting of reference MAP and chest PTT were acquired. Each subject was recorded at three different days: D, D+3 and D+14. Overall, the implemented protocol induced MAP values to range from 80 ± 6 mmHg in baseline, to 107 ± 9 mmHg during isometric handgrip maneuvers. Agreement between reference and chest-sensor MAP values was tested by using intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC = 0.78) and Bland-Altman analysis (mean error = 0.7 mmHg, standard deviation = 5.1 mmHg). The cumulative percentage of MAP values provided by the chest sensor falling within a range of ±5 mmHg compared to reference MAP readings was of 70%, within ±10 mmHg was of 91%, and within ±15mmHg was of 98%. These results point at the fact that the chest sensor complies with the British Hypertension Society (BHS) requirements of Grade A BP monitors, when applied to MAP readings. Grade A performance was maintained even two weeks after having performed the initial subject-dependent calibration. In conclusion, this paper introduces a sensor and a calibration strategy to perform MAP measurements at the chest. The encouraging performance of the presented technique paves the way towards an ambulatory-compliant, continuous and non-occlusive BP monitoring system.

Dose reconstruction in the context of tomotherapy

In vivo dosimetry is a way to verify the radiation dose delivered to the patient in measuring the dose generally during the first fraction of the treatment. It is the only dose delivery control based on a measurement performed during the treatment. In today's radiotherapy practice, the dose delivered to the patient is planned using 3D dose calculation algorithms and volumetric images representing the patient. Due to the high accuracy and precision necessary in radiation treatments, national and international organisations like ICRU and AAPM recommend the use of in vivo dosimetry. It is also mandatory in some countries like France. Various in vivo dosimetry methods have been developed during the past years. These methods are point-, line-, plane- or 3D dose controls. A 3D in vivo dosimetry provides the most information about the dose delivered to the patient, with respect to ID and 2D methods. However, to our knowledge, it is generally not routinely applied to patient treatments yet. The aim of this PhD thesis was to determine whether it is possible to reconstruct the 3D delivered dose using transmitted beam measurements in the context of narrow beams. An iterative dose reconstruction method has been described and implemented. The iterative algorithm includes a simple 3D dose calculation algorithm based on the convolution/superposition principle. The methodology was applied to narrow beams produced by a conventional 6 MV linac. The transmitted dose was measured using an array of ion chambers, as to simulate the linear nature of a tomotherapy detector. We showed that the iterative algorithm converges quickly and reconstructs the dose within a good agreement (at least 3% / 3 mm locally), which is inside the 5% recommended by the ICRU. Moreover it was demonstrated on phantom measurements that the proposed method allows us detecting some set-up errors and interfraction geometry modifications. We also have discussed the limitations of the 3D dose reconstruction for dose delivery error detection. Afterwards, stability tests of the tomotherapy MVCT built-in onboard detector was performed in order to evaluate if such a detector is suitable for 3D in-vivo dosimetry. The detector showed stability on short and long terms comparable to other imaging devices as the EPIDs, also used for in vivo dosimetry. Subsequently, a methodology for the dose reconstruction using the tomotherapy MVCT detector is proposed in the context of static irradiations. This manuscript is composed of two articles and a script providing further information related to this work. In the latter, the first chapter introduces the state-of-the-art of in vivo dosimetry and adaptive radiotherapy, and explains why we are interested in performing 3D dose reconstructions. In chapter 2 a dose calculation algorithm implemented for this work is reviewed with a detailed description of the physical parameters needed for calculating 3D absorbed dose distributions. The tomotherapy MVCT detector used for transit measurements and its characteristics are described in chapter 3. Chapter 4 contains a first article entitled '3D dose reconstruction for narrow beams using ion chamber array measurements', which describes the dose reconstruction method and presents tests of the methodology on phantoms irradiated with 6 MV narrow photon beams. Chapter 5 contains a second article 'Stability of the Helical TomoTherapy HiArt II detector for treatment beam irradiations. A dose reconstruction process specific to the use of the tomotherapy MVCT detector is presented in chapter 6. A discussion and perspectives of the PhD thesis are presented in chapter 7, followed by a conclusion in chapter 8. The tomotherapy treatment device is described in appendix 1 and an overview of 3D conformai- and intensity modulated radiotherapy is presented in appendix 2. - La dosimétrie in vivo est une technique utilisée pour vérifier la dose délivrée au patient en faisant une mesure, généralement pendant la première séance du traitement. Il s'agit de la seule technique de contrôle de la dose délivrée basée sur une mesure réalisée durant l'irradiation du patient. La dose au patient est calculée au moyen d'algorithmes 3D utilisant des images volumétriques du patient. En raison de la haute précision nécessaire lors des traitements de radiothérapie, des organismes nationaux et internationaux tels que l'ICRU et l'AAPM recommandent l'utilisation de la dosimétrie in vivo, qui est devenue obligatoire dans certains pays dont la France. Diverses méthodes de dosimétrie in vivo existent. Elles peuvent être classées en dosimétrie ponctuelle, planaire ou tridimensionnelle. La dosimétrie 3D est celle qui fournit le plus d'information sur la dose délivrée. Cependant, à notre connaissance, elle n'est généralement pas appliquée dans la routine clinique. Le but de cette recherche était de déterminer s'il est possible de reconstruire la dose 3D délivrée en se basant sur des mesures de la dose transmise, dans le contexte des faisceaux étroits. Une méthode itérative de reconstruction de la dose a été décrite et implémentée. L'algorithme itératif contient un algorithme simple basé sur le principe de convolution/superposition pour le calcul de la dose. La dose transmise a été mesurée à l'aide d'une série de chambres à ionisations alignées afin de simuler la nature linéaire du détecteur de la tomothérapie. Nous avons montré que l'algorithme itératif converge rapidement et qu'il permet de reconstruire la dose délivrée avec une bonne précision (au moins 3 % localement / 3 mm). De plus, nous avons démontré que cette méthode permet de détecter certaines erreurs de positionnement du patient, ainsi que des modifications géométriques qui peuvent subvenir entre les séances de traitement. Nous avons discuté les limites de cette méthode pour la détection de certaines erreurs d'irradiation. Par la suite, des tests de stabilité du détecteur MVCT intégré à la tomothérapie ont été effectués, dans le but de déterminer si ce dernier peut être utilisé pour la dosimétrie in vivo. Ce détecteur a démontré une stabilité à court et à long terme comparable à d'autres détecteurs tels que les EPIDs également utilisés pour l'imagerie et la dosimétrie in vivo. Pour finir, une adaptation de la méthode de reconstruction de la dose a été proposée afin de pouvoir l'implémenter sur une installation de tomothérapie. Ce manuscrit est composé de deux articles et d'un script contenant des informations supplémentaires sur ce travail. Dans ce dernier, le premier chapitre introduit l'état de l'art de la dosimétrie in vivo et de la radiothérapie adaptative, et explique pourquoi nous nous intéressons à la reconstruction 3D de la dose délivrée. Dans le chapitre 2, l'algorithme 3D de calcul de dose implémenté pour ce travail est décrit, ainsi que les paramètres physiques principaux nécessaires pour le calcul de dose. Les caractéristiques du détecteur MVCT de la tomothérapie utilisé pour les mesures de transit sont décrites dans le chapitre 3. Le chapitre 4 contient un premier article intitulé '3D dose reconstruction for narrow beams using ion chamber array measurements', qui décrit la méthode de reconstruction et présente des tests de la méthodologie sur des fantômes irradiés avec des faisceaux étroits. Le chapitre 5 contient un second article intitulé 'Stability of the Helical TomoTherapy HiArt II detector for treatment beam irradiations'. Un procédé de reconstruction de la dose spécifique pour l'utilisation du détecteur MVCT de la tomothérapie est présenté au chapitre 6. Une discussion et les perspectives de la thèse de doctorat sont présentées au chapitre 7, suivies par une conclusion au chapitre 8. Le concept de la tomothérapie est exposé dans l'annexe 1. Pour finir, la radiothérapie «informationnelle 3D et la radiothérapie par modulation d'intensité sont présentées dans l'annexe 2.

Intégrer les préférences des patients dans les projets thérapeutiques de médecine intensive [To integrate patient's preferences in intensive care treatment plans]

An increasing number of terminally ill patients are admitted into the intensive care unit, and decisions of limitation, or of palliative care are made to avoid medical futility. The principle of autonomy states that the patient (or in case of necessity his relatives) should make end of life decision after detailed information. The exercise of autonomy is difficult due to the disease of the patient and the nature of invasive treatments, but also due to organisational and communication barriers. The latter can be surmounted by a proactive approach. Early communication with the patient and relatives about the sometimes-limited expectations of an invasive treatment plan, and the possibility of palliative care allow to integer patient's preferences in the formulation of a therapeutical plan.

A novel technique using echocardiography to evaluate venous cannula performance perioperatively in CPB cardiac surgery.

OBJECTIVE: Transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) has been used clinically to disobstruct venous drainage cannula and to optimise placement of venous cannulae in the vena cava but it has never been used to evaluate performance capabilities. Also, little progress has been made in venous cannula design in order to optimise venous return to the heart lung machine. We designed a self-expandable Smartcanula (SC) and analysed its performance capability using echocardiography. METHODS: An epicardial echocardiography probe was placed over the SC or control cannula (CTRL) and a Doppler image was obtained. Mean (V(m)) and maximum (V(max)) velocities, flow and diameter were obtained. Also, pressure drop (DeltaP(CPB)) was obtained between the central venous pressure and inlet to venous reservoir. LDH and Free Hb were also compared in 30 patients. Comparison was made between the two groups using the student's t-test with statistical significance established when p<0.05. RESULTS: Age for the SC and CC groups were 61.6+/-17.6 years and 64.6+/-13.1 years, respectively. Weight was 70.3+/-11.6 kg and 72.8+/-14.4 kg, respectively. BSA was 1.80+/-0.2 m(2) and 1.82+/-0.2 m(2), respectively. CPB times were 114+/-53 min and 108+/-44 min, respectively. Cross-clamp time was 59+/-15 min and 76+/-29 min, respectively (p=NS). Free-Hb was 568+/-142 U/l versus 549+/-271 U/l post-CPB for the SC and CC, respectively (p=NS). LDH was 335+/-73 mg/l versus 354+/-116 mg/l for the SC and CC, respectively (p=NS). V(m) was 89+/-10 cm/s (SC) versus 63+/-3 cm/s (CC), V(max) was 139+/-23 cm/s (SC) versus 93+/-11 cm/s (CC) (both p<0.01). DeltaP(CPB) was 30+/-10 mmHg (SC) versus 43+/-13 mmHg (CC) (p<0.05). A Bland-Altman test showed good agreement between the two devices used concerning flow rate calculations between CPB and TTE (bias 300 ml+/-700 ml standard deviation). CONCLUSIONS: This novel Smartcanula design, due to its self-expanding principle, provides superior flow characteristics compared to classic two stage venous cannula used for adult CPB surgery. No detrimental effects were observed concerning blood damage. Echocardiography was effective in analysing venous cannula performance and velocity patterns.

Use of a short hPDE6b promoter for rod gene transfer in a model of severe retinal cystrophy, the Rd10 mouse

Purpose: Gene therapy of severe retinal dystrophies directly affecting photoreceptor is still a challenge in terms of clinical application. One of the main hurdles is to generate high transgene expression specifically in rods or cones. In the present study, we are investigating the possibility to drive hPDE6b expression in the Rd10 mouse retina using a specific sequence of the human PDE6b promoter. Methods: Two 5' flanking fragments of the human PDE6b gene: (-93 to +53 (146 bp) and -297 to +53 (350 bp, see Di Polo and Farber, 1995) were cloned in different plasmids in order to check their expression in vitro and in vivo. These elements drove the activity of either luciferase (pGL3 plasmids) or EGFP (AAV2/8 backbone). Then, an AAV2/8 vector carrying the PDE6b cDNA was tested with subretinal injections at P9 in the Rd10 eyes. Eye fundus, OCT, ERG recordings and histological investigations were performed to assess the efficacy of the gene transfer. Results: The short PDE6b promoter containing 146bp (-93 to +53) showed the highest activity in the Y-79 cells, as described previously (Di Polo and Farber, 1995). Subretinal administrations of AAV2/8-PDE6bpromoter-EGFP allowed a rapid expression specifically in rods and not in cones. The expression is faster than a vector containing the CMV promoter. The AAV2/8-PDE6bpromoter-PDE6b and the control vector were injected at P9 in the Rd10 mouse retina and investigated 5 weeks post-injection. Out of 14 eyes, 6 presented an increased rod sensitivity of about 300 fold, and increased a- and b-wave responses in ERG recordings. Flicker stimulations revealed that cones are also functional. OCT images and histological analyses revealed an increased ONL size in the injected area. The retina treated with the therapeutic vector presented 4-6 rows of photoreceptors with outersegments containing PDE6b. In the control eyes, only 2-4 rows of photoreceptors with almost no OS were observed . Conclusions: The 146 bp promoter sequence (-93 to + 53) is the shortest regulatory element described to date which allows to obtain efficient rod-specific expression in the context of somatic gene transfer. This first result is of great interest for AAV vector design in general allowing more space for the accommodation of transgenes of interest and good expression in rods. Moreover we showed the proof of principle of the efficacy of AAV2/8-PDE6bp-PDE6b vector in the Rd10 mouse model of severe photoreceptor degeneration without using neither AAV mutated capsids, nor self-complementary vectors.

Evolving from inferences to decisions in the interpretation of scientific evidence

Le travail d'un(e) expert(e) en science forensique exige que ce dernier (cette dernière) prenne une série de décisions. Ces décisions sont difficiles parce qu'elles doivent être prises dans l'inévitable présence d'incertitude, dans le contexte unique des circonstances qui entourent la décision, et, parfois, parce qu'elles sont complexes suite à de nombreuse variables aléatoires et dépendantes les unes des autres. Etant donné que ces décisions peuvent aboutir à des conséquences sérieuses dans l'administration de la justice, la prise de décisions en science forensique devrait être soutenue par un cadre robuste qui fait des inférences en présence d'incertitudes et des décisions sur la base de ces inférences. L'objectif de cette thèse est de répondre à ce besoin en présentant un cadre théorique pour faire des choix rationnels dans des problèmes de décisions rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique. L'inférence et la théorie de la décision bayésienne satisfont les conditions nécessaires pour un tel cadre théorique. Pour atteindre son objectif, cette thèse consiste de trois propositions, recommandant l'utilisation (1) de la théorie de la décision, (2) des réseaux bayésiens, et (3) des réseaux bayésiens de décision pour gérer des problèmes d'inférence et de décision forensiques. Les résultats présentent un cadre uniforme et cohérent pour faire des inférences et des décisions en science forensique qui utilise les concepts théoriques ci-dessus. Ils décrivent comment organiser chaque type de problème en le décomposant dans ses différents éléments, et comment trouver le meilleur plan d'action en faisant la distinction entre des problèmes de décision en une étape et des problèmes de décision en deux étapes et en y appliquant le principe de la maximisation de l'utilité espérée. Pour illustrer l'application de ce cadre à des problèmes rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique, des études de cas théoriques appliquent la théorie de la décision, les réseaux bayésiens et les réseaux bayésiens de décision à une sélection de différents types de problèmes d'inférence et de décision impliquant différentes catégories de traces. Deux études du problème des deux traces illustrent comment la construction de réseaux bayésiens permet de gérer des problèmes d'inférence complexes, et ainsi surmonter l'obstacle de la complexité qui peut être présent dans des problèmes de décision. Trois études-une sur ce qu'il faut conclure d'une recherche dans une banque de données qui fournit exactement une correspondance, une sur quel génotype il faut rechercher dans une banque de données sur la base des observations faites sur des résultats de profilage d'ADN, et une sur s'il faut soumettre une trace digitale à un processus qui compare la trace avec des empreintes de sources potentielles-expliquent l'application de la théorie de la décision et des réseaux bayésiens de décision à chacune de ces décisions. Les résultats des études des cas théoriques soutiennent les trois propositions avancées dans cette thèse. Ainsi, cette thèse présente un cadre uniforme pour organiser et trouver le plan d'action le plus rationnel dans des problèmes de décisions rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique. Le cadre proposé est un outil interactif et exploratoire qui permet de mieux comprendre un problème de décision afin que cette compréhension puisse aboutir à des choix qui sont mieux informés. - Forensic science casework involves making a sériés of choices. The difficulty in making these choices lies in the inévitable presence of uncertainty, the unique context of circumstances surrounding each décision and, in some cases, the complexity due to numerous, interrelated random variables. Given that these décisions can lead to serious conséquences in the admin-istration of justice, forensic décision making should be supported by a robust framework that makes inferences under uncertainty and décisions based on these inferences. The objective of this thesis is to respond to this need by presenting a framework for making rational choices in décision problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories. Bayesian inference and décision theory meets the requirements for such a framework. To attain its objective, this thesis consists of three propositions, advocating the use of (1) décision theory, (2) Bayesian networks, and (3) influence diagrams for handling forensic inference and décision problems. The results present a uniform and coherent framework for making inferences and décisions in forensic science using the above theoretical concepts. They describe how to organize each type of problem by breaking it down into its différent elements, and how to find the most rational course of action by distinguishing between one-stage and two-stage décision problems and applying the principle of expected utility maximization. To illustrate the framework's application to the problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories, theoretical case studies apply décision theory, Bayesian net-works and influence diagrams to a selection of différent types of inference and décision problems dealing with différent catégories of trace evidence. Two studies of the two-trace problem illustrate how the construction of Bayesian networks can handle complex inference problems, and thus overcome the hurdle of complexity that can be present in décision prob-lems. Three studies-one on what to conclude when a database search provides exactly one hit, one on what genotype to search for in a database based on the observations made on DNA typing results, and one on whether to submit a fingermark to the process of comparing it with prints of its potential sources-explain the application of décision theory and influ¬ence diagrams to each of these décisions. The results of the theoretical case studies support the thesis's three propositions. Hence, this thesis présents a uniform framework for organizing and finding the most rational course of action in décision problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories. The proposed framework is an interactive and exploratory tool for better understanding a décision problem so that this understanding may lead to better informed choices.

Population PK-guided simulation study in children exposed to drugs in human milk

Risks of significant infant drug exposure through human milk arepoorly defined due to lack of large-scale PK data. We propose to useBayesian approach based on population PK (popPK)-guided modelingand simulation for risk prediction. As a proof-of-principle study, weexploited fluoxetine milk concentration data from 25 women. popPKparameters including milk-to-plasma ratio (MP ratio) were estimatedfrom the best model. The dose of fluoxetine the breastfed infant wouldreceive through mother's milk, and infant plasma concentrations wereestimated from 1000 simulated mother-infant pairs, using randomassignment of feeding times and milk volume. A conservative estimateof CYP2D6 activity of 20% of the allometrically-adjusted adult valuewas assumed. Derived model parameters, including MP ratio were consistentwith those reported in the literature. Visual predictive check andother model diagnostics showed no signs of model misspecifications.The model simulation predicted that infant exposure levels to fluoxetinevia mother's milk were below 10% of weight-adjusted maternal therapeuticdoses in >99% of simulated infants. Predicted median ratio ofinfant-mother serum levels at steady state was 0.093 (range 0.033-0.31),consistent with literature reported values (mean=0.07; range 0-0.59).Predicted incidence of relatively high infant-mother ratio (>0.2) ofsteady-state serum fluoxetine concentrations was <1.3%. Overall, ourpredictions are consistent with clinical observations. Our approach maybe valid for other drugs, allowing in silico prediction of infant drugexposure risks through human milk. We will discuss application of thisapproach to another drug used in lactating women.