67 resultados para markov chains monte carlo methods


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BACKGROUND: Physician training in smoking cessation counseling has been shown to be effective as a means to increase quit success. We assessed the cost-effectiveness ratio of a smoking cessation counseling training programme. Its effectiveness was previously demonstrated in a cluster randomized, control trial performed in two Swiss university outpatients clinics, in which residents were randomized to receive training in smoking interventions or a control educational intervention. DESIGN AND METHODS: We used a Markov simulation model for effectiveness analysis. This model incorporates the intervention efficacy, the natural quit rate, and the lifetime probability of relapse after 1-year abstinence. We used previously published results in addition to hospital service and outpatient clinic cost data. The time horizon was 1 year, and we opted for a third-party payer perspective. RESULTS: The incremental cost of the intervention amounted to US$2.58 per consultation by a smoker, translating into a cost per life-year saved of US$25.4 for men and 35.2 for women. One-way sensitivity analyses yielded a range of US$4.0-107.1 in men and US$9.7-148.6 in women. Variations in the quit rate of the control intervention, the length of training effectiveness, and the discount rate yielded moderately large effects on the outcome. Variations in the natural cessation rate, the lifetime probability of relapse, the cost of physician training, the counseling time, the cost per hour of physician time, and the cost of the booklets had little effect on the cost-effectiveness ratio. CONCLUSIONS: Training residents in smoking cessation counseling is a very cost-effective intervention and may be more efficient than currently accepted tobacco control interventions.

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PURPOSE: In the radiopharmaceutical therapy approach to the fight against cancer, in particular when it comes to translating laboratory results to the clinical setting, modeling has served as an invaluable tool for guidance and for understanding the processes operating at the cellular level and how these relate to macroscopic observables. Tumor control probability (TCP) is the dosimetric end point quantity of choice which relates to experimental and clinical data: it requires knowledge of individual cellular absorbed doses since it depends on the assessment of the treatment's ability to kill each and every cell. Macroscopic tumors, seen in both clinical and experimental studies, contain too many cells to be modeled individually in Monte Carlo simulation; yet, in particular for low ratios of decays to cells, a cell-based model that does not smooth away statistical considerations associated with low activity is a necessity. The authors present here an adaptation of the simple sphere-based model from which cellular level dosimetry for macroscopic tumors and their end point quantities, such as TCP, may be extrapolated more reliably. METHODS: Ten homogenous spheres representing tumors of different sizes were constructed in GEANT4. The radionuclide 131I was randomly allowed to decay for each model size and for seven different ratios of number of decays to number of cells, N(r): 1000, 500, 200, 100, 50, 20, and 10 decays per cell. The deposited energy was collected in radial bins and divided by the bin mass to obtain the average bin absorbed dose. To simulate a cellular model, the number of cells present in each bin was calculated and an absorbed dose attributed to each cell equal to the bin average absorbed dose with a randomly determined adjustment based on a Gaussian probability distribution with a width equal to the statistical uncertainty consistent with the ratio of decays to cells, i.e., equal to Nr-1/2. From dose volume histograms the surviving fraction of cells, equivalent uniform dose (EUD), and TCP for the different scenarios were calculated. Comparably sized spherical models containing individual spherical cells (15 microm diameter) in hexagonal lattices were constructed, and Monte Carlo simulations were executed for all the same previous scenarios. The dosimetric quantities were calculated and compared to the adjusted simple sphere model results. The model was then applied to the Bortezomib-induced enzyme-targeted radiotherapy (BETR) strategy of targeting Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-expressing cancers. RESULTS: The TCP values were comparable to within 2% between the adjusted simple sphere and full cellular models. Additionally, models were generated for a nonuniform distribution of activity, and results were compared between the adjusted spherical and cellular models with similar comparability. The TCP values from the experimental macroscopic tumor results were consistent with the experimental observations for BETR-treated 1 g EBV-expressing lymphoma tumors in mice. CONCLUSIONS: The adjusted spherical model presented here provides more accurate TCP values than simple spheres, on par with full cellular Monte Carlo simulations while maintaining the simplicity of the simple sphere model. This model provides a basis for complementing and understanding laboratory and clinical results pertaining to radiopharmaceutical therapy.

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BACKGROUND: Anal condylomata acuminata (ACA) are caused by human papilloma virus (HPV) infection which is transmitted by close physical and sexual contact. The result of surgical treatment of ACA has an overall success rate of 71% to 93%, with a recurrence rate between 4% and 29%. The aim of this study was to assess a possible association between HPV type and ACA recurrence after surgical treatment. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of 140 consecutive patients who underwent surgery for ACA from January 1990 to December 2005 at our tertiary University Hospital. We confirmed ACA by histopathological analysis and determined the HPV typing using the polymerase chain reaction. Patients gave consent for HPV testing and completed a questionnaire. We looked at the association of ACA, HPV typing, and HIV disease. We used chi, the Monte Carlo simulation, and Wilcoxon tests for statistical analysis. RESULTS: Among the 140 patients (123 M/17 F), HPV 6 and 11 were the most frequently encountered viruses (51% and 28%, respectively). Recurrence occurred in 35 (25%) patients. HPV 11 was present in 19 (41%) of these recurrences, which is statistically significant, when compared with other HPVs. There was no significant difference between recurrence rates in the 33 (24%) HIV-positive and the HIV-negative patients. CONCLUSIONS: HPV 11 is associated with higher recurrence rate of ACA. This makes routine clinical HPV typing questionable. Follow-up is required to identify recurrence and to treat it early, especially if HPV 11 has been identified.

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PURPOSE: To predict the risk of an adolescent patient to miss an appointment, based on the previous appointments and on the characteristics of the patient and the appointment. METHODS: Two thousand one hundred ninety-three (1873 females) patients aged 12 to 20 years having scheduled at least four appointments were included. We assessed the rate of missed nonexcused appointments of each patient. Second, a Markovian multilevel model was used to predict the risk of defaulting. RESULTS: Forty-five percent of the patients have not missed even once, and 14% of females and 17% of males have missed >25% of their appointments. Females show two types of behaviors (an abstract concept that groups individuals based on a combination of their appointment-keeping and their recorded type of healthcare need) depending on the diagnosis. Somatic, gynecology, violence, and counseling diagnoses are mostly grouped together. In this group, having already missed and having an appointment with a paramedical provider increases the risk of missing. In the second group (eating disorders and psychiatric diagnoses) having already missed and a longer delay between appointments influence the risk of missing, although the risk is lower for this latter group. Males only show one type of behavior regarding missed appointments. Having missed a previous appointment, being older, having cancelled the next to last appointment and the type of diagnosis explain the risk of missing. CONCLUSIONS: Patients who have already defaulted have a higher risk of defaulting again. Means of control regarding missed appointments should consequently focus on defaulters, to decrease the associated workload. Reminders could be a solution for the follow-up appointments scheduled with a long delay.

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Tumors in non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) patients are often proximal to the major blood vessels in the abdomen or neck. In external-beam radiotherapy, these tumors present a challenge because imaging resolution prevents the beam from being targeted to the tumor lesion without also irradiating the artery wall. This problem has led to potentially life-threatening delayed toxicity. Because radioimmunotherapy has resulted in long-term survival of NHL patients, we investigated whether the absorbed dose (AD) to the artery wall in radioimmunotherapy of NHL is of potential concern for delayed toxicity. SPECT resolution is not sufficient to enable dosimetric analysis of anatomic features of the thickness of the aortic wall. Therefore, we present a model of aortic wall toxicity based on data from 4 patients treated with (131)I-tositumomab. METHODS: Four NHL patients with periaortic tumors were administered pretherapeutic (131)I-tositumomab. Abdominal SPECT and whole-body planar images were obtained at 48, 72, and 144 h after tracer administration. Blood-pool activity concentrations were obtained from regions of interest drawn on the heart on the planar images. Tumor and blood activity concentrations, scaled to therapeutic administered activities-both standard and myeloablative-were input into a geometry and tracking model (GEANT, version 4) of the aorta. The simulated energy deposited in the arterial walls was collected and fitted, and the AD and biologic effective dose values to the aortic wall and tumors were obtained for standard therapeutic and hypothetical myeloablative administered activities. RESULTS: Arterial wall ADs from standard therapy were lower (0.6-3.7 Gy) than those typical from external-beam therapy, as were the tumor ADs (1.4-10.5 Gy). The ratios of tumor AD to arterial wall AD were greater for radioimmunotherapy by a factor of 1.9-4.0. For myeloablative therapy, artery wall ADs were in general less than those typical for external-beam therapy (9.4-11.4 Gy for 3 of 4 patients) but comparable for 1 patient (32.6 Gy). CONCLUSION: Blood vessel radiation dose can be estimated using the software package 3D-RD combined with GEANT modeling. The dosimetry analysis suggested that arterial wall toxicity is highly unlikely in standard dose radioimmunotherapy but should be considered a potential concern and limiting factor in myeloablative therapy.

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PURPOSE: To implement and characterize an isotropic three-dimensional cardiac T2 mapping technique. METHODS: A self-navigated three-dimensional radial segmented balanced steady-state free precession pulse sequence with an isotropic 1.7-mm spatial resolution was implemented at 3T with a variable T2 preparation module. Bloch equation and Monte Carlo simulations were performed to determine the influence of the heart rate, B1 inhomogeneity and noise on the T2 fitting accuracy. In a phantom study, the accuracy of the pulse sequence was studied through comparison with a gold-standard spin-echo T2 mapping method. The robustness and homogeneity of the technique were ascertained in a study of 10 healthy adult human volunteers, while first results obtained in patients are reported. RESULTS: The numerical simulations demonstrated that the heart rate and B1 inhomogeneity cause only minor deviations in the T2 fitting, whereas the phantom study showed good agreement of the technique with the gold standard. The volunteer study demonstrated an average myocardial T2 of 40.5 ± 3.3 ms and a <15% T2 gradient in the base-apex and anterior-inferior direction. In three patients, elevated T2 values were measured in regions with expected edema. CONCLUSION: This respiratory self-navigated isotropic three-dimensional technique allows for accurate and robust in vitro and in vivo T2 quantification. Magn Reson Med 73:1549-1554, 2015. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

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A thorough literature review about the current situation on the implementation of eye lens monitoring has been performed in order to provide recommendations regarding dosemeter types, calibration procedures and practical aspects of eye lens monitoring for interventional radiology personnel. Most relevant data and recommendations from about 100 papers have been analysed and classified in the following topics: challenges of today in eye lens monitoring; conversion coefficients, phantoms and calibration procedures for eye lens dose evaluation; correction factors and dosemeters for eye lens dose measurements; dosemeter position and influence of protective devices. The major findings of the review can be summarised as follows: the recommended operational quantity for the eye lens monitoring is H p (3). At present, several dosemeters are available for eye lens monitoring and calibration procedures are being developed. However, in practice, very often, alternative methods are used to assess the dose to the eye lens. A summary of correction factors found in the literature for the assessment of the eye lens dose is provided. These factors can give an estimation of the eye lens dose when alternative methods, such as the use of a whole body dosemeter, are used. A wide range of values is found, thus indicating the large uncertainty associated with these simplified methods. Reduction factors from most common protective devices obtained experimentally and using Monte Carlo calculations are presented. The paper concludes that the use of a dosemeter placed at collar level outside the lead apron can provide a useful first estimate of the eye lens exposure. However, for workplaces with estimated annual equivalent dose to the eye lens close to the dose limit, specific eye lens monitoring should be performed. Finally, training of the involved medical staff on the risks of ionising radiation for the eye lens and on the correct use of protective systems is strongly recommended.