Dissecting the compression of mortality in Switzerland, 1876-2005

This paper aims to examine changes in common longevity and variability of the adult life span, and attempts to answer whether or not the compression of mortality continues in Switzerland in the years 1876-2005. The results show that the negative relationships between the large increase in the adult modal age at death, observed at least from the 1920s, and the decrease in the standard deviation of the ages at deaths occurring above it, illustrate a significant compression of adult mortality. Typical adult longevity increased by about 10% during the last fifty years in Switzerland, and adult heterogeneity in the age at death decreased in the same proportion. This analysis has not found any evidence suggesting that we are approaching longevity limits in term of modal or even maximum life spans. It ascertains a slowdown in the reduction of adult heterogeneity in longevity, already observed in Japan and other low mortality countries.

Rifaximin treatment for the irritable bowel syndrome with a positive lactulose hydrogen breath test improves symptoms for at least 3 months.

BACKGROUND: While rifaximin was able to improve symptoms in patients with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) in phase III trials, these results are yet to be repeated in phase IV studies. AIM: To evaluate the treatment response to rifaximin in IBS patients in a phase IV trial. METHODS: IBS patients underwent lactulose hydrogen breath testing (LHBT). LHBT-positive patients were treated with rifaximin for 14 days. Prior to treatment as well as at week 4 and 14 following the start of rifaximin treatment, patients completed a questionnaire assessing symptom severity on a Likert scale from 0 to 10. RESULTS: One hundred and six of 150 IBS patients (71%) were LHBT-positive and treated with rifaximin. As assessed at week 4 following commencement of the therapy, rifaximin provided significant improvement of the following IBS-associated symptoms: bloating (5.5±2.6 before the start of the treatment vs. 3.6±2.7 at week 4, P<0.001), flatulence (5.0±2.7 vs. 4.0±2.7, P=0.015), diarrhoea (2.9±2.4 vs. 2.0±2.4, P=0.005) and abdominal pain (4.8±2.7 vs. 3.3±2.5, P<0.001). Overall well-being also significantly improved (3.9 ± 2.4 vs. 2.7 ± 2.3, P < 0.001). Similar improvements in IBS symptoms were obtained at week 14. Eighty-six per cent of patients undergoing repetitive LHBT (55/64) tested negative at week 4. CONCLUSIONS: We found a high percentage of LHBT-positive IBS patients. IBS-associated symptoms (bloating, flatulence, diarrhoea, pain) were improved for a period of 3 months following 2 weeks of treatment with rifaximin. We conclude that rifaximin treatment alleviates symptoms in LHBT-positive IBS patients.

Comorbidity and nutritional indices as predictors of morbidity after transurethral procedures: A prospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Preoperative scores are widely used predictors of complications after major surgery. These scores, however, are not widely used in transurethral procedures. The aim of this study was to assess the value of the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), the age-adjusted CCI, the American Society of Anesthesiologist score (ASA) and the Nutritional Risk Score (NRS) in predicting early morbidity after transurethral urological procedures. METHODS: Consecutive patients undergoing transurethral resection of the bladder or the prostate were prospectively enrolled. The scores were calculated preoperatively; 30-day complications were prospectively recorded according to the Dindo-Clavien classification. Univariate logistic regression was performed to investigate the value of each score and of other factors (i.e., age, sex, body mass index, anemia, smoking habit, type of operation and anaesthesia) as predictors of complications. A multivariate model was then calculated using these predictors. RESULTS: Overall, 197 patients were included. The mean age was 72 (standard deviation ± 10). In total, 26.9% patients had at least 1 complication. Using univariate analysis, we found that each score significantly predicted complications. In multivariate analysis, only the ASA (odds ration [OR] 2.11; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-4.43) and the NRS (OR 2.42; 95% CI 1.56-3.74) remained independent predictors. The best model incorporated ASA, NRS and gender, and predicted morbidity with an area under the curve of 76%. Our study's main limitations are population heterogeneity and limited sample size. CONCLUSION: The ASA and the NRS are important and independent determinants of early morbidity after transurethral procedures. The use of these indices may assist clinicians in the decision-making process to balance the possible benefits of transurethral procedures with the potential risks.

Problems of allometric scaling analysis: examples from mammalian reproductive biology.

Biological scaling analyses employing the widely used bivariate allometric model are beset by at least four interacting problems: (1) choice of an appropriate best-fit line with due attention to the influence of outliers; (2) objective recognition of divergent subsets in the data (allometric grades); (3) potential restrictions on statistical independence resulting from phylogenetic inertia; and (4) the need for extreme caution in inferring causation from correlation. A new non-parametric line-fitting technique has been developed that eliminates requirements for normality of distribution, greatly reduces the influence of outliers and permits objective recognition of grade shifts in substantial datasets. This technique is applied in scaling analyses of mammalian gestation periods and of neonatal body mass in primates. These analyses feed into a re-examination, conducted with partial correlation analysis, of the maternal energy hypothesis relating to mammalian brain evolution, which suggests links between body size and brain size in neonates and adults, gestation period and basal metabolic rate. Much has been made of the potential problem of phylogenetic inertia as a confounding factor in scaling analyses. However, this problem may be less severe than suspected earlier because nested analyses of variance conducted on residual variation (rather than on raw values) reveals that there is considerable variance at low taxonomic levels. In fact, limited divergence in body size between closely related species is one of the prime examples of phylogenetic inertia. One common approach to eliminating perceived problems of phylogenetic inertia in allometric analyses has been calculation of 'independent contrast values'. It is demonstrated that the reasoning behind this approach is flawed in several ways. Calculation of contrast values for closely related species of similar body size is, in fact, highly questionable, particularly when there are major deviations from the best-fit line for the scaling relationship under scrutiny.

Three essays in dynamic corporate finance

The three essays constituting this thesis focus on financing and cash management policy. The first essay aims to shed light on why firms issue debt so conservatively. In particular, it examines the effects of shareholder and creditor protection on capital structure choices. It starts by building a contingent claims model where financing policy results from a trade-off between tax benefits, contracting costs and agency costs. In this setup, controlling shareholders can divert part of the firms' cash ows as private benefits at the expense of minority share- holders. In addition, shareholders as a class can behave strategically at the time of default leading to deviations from the absolute priority rule. The analysis demonstrates that investor protection is a first order determinant of firms' financing choices and that conflicts of interests between firm claimholders may help explain the level and cross-sectional variation of observed leverage ratios. The second essay focuses on the practical relevance of agency conflicts. De- spite the theoretical development of the literature on agency conflicts and firm policy choices, the magnitude of manager-shareholder conflicts is still an open question. This essay proposes a methodology for quantifying these agency conflicts. To do so, it examines the impact of managerial entrenchment on corporate financing decisions. It builds a dynamic contingent claims model in which managers do not act in the best interest of shareholders, but rather pursue private benefits at the expense of shareholders. Managers have discretion over financing and dividend policies. However, shareholders can remove the manager at a cost. The analysis demonstrates that entrenched managers restructure less frequently and issue less debt than optimal for shareholders. I take the model to the data and use observed financing choices to provide firm-specific estimates of the degree of managerial entrenchment. Using structural econometrics, I find costs of control challenges of 2-7% on average (.8-5% at median). The estimates of the agency costs vary with variables that one expects to determine managerial incentives. In addition, these costs are sufficient to resolve the low- and zero-leverage puzzles and explain the time series of observed leverage ratios. Finally, the analysis shows that governance mechanisms significantly affect the value of control and firms' financing decisions. The third essay is concerned with the documented time trend in corporate cash holdings by Bates, Kahle and Stulz (BKS,2003). BKS find that firms' cash holdings double from 10% to 20% over the 1980 to 2005 period. This essay provides an explanation of this phenomenon by examining the effects of product market competition on firms' cash holdings in the presence of financial constraints. It develops a real options model in which cash holdings may be used to cover unexpected operating losses and avoid inefficient closure. The model generates new predictions relating cash holdings to firm and industry characteristics such as the intensity of competition, cash flow volatility, or financing constraints. The empirical examination of the model shows strong support of model's predictions. In addition, it shows that the time trend in cash holdings documented by BKS can be at least partly attributed to a competition effect.

Persistence of Transmitted HIV-1 Drug Resistance Mutations Associated with Fitness Costs and Viral Genetic Backgrounds.

Transmission of drug-resistant pathogens presents an almost-universal challenge for fighting infectious diseases. Transmitted drug resistance mutations (TDRM) can persist in the absence of drugs for considerable time. It is generally believed that differential TDRM-persistence is caused, at least partially, by variations in TDRM-fitness-costs. However, in vivo epidemiological evidence for the impact of fitness costs on TDRM-persistence is rare. Here, we studied the persistence of TDRM in HIV-1 using longitudinally-sampled nucleotide sequences from the Swiss-HIV-Cohort-Study (SHCS). All treatment-naïve individuals with TDRM at baseline were included. Persistence of TDRM was quantified via reversion rates (RR) determined with interval-censored survival models. Fitness costs of TDRM were estimated in the genetic background in which they occurred using a previously published and validated machine-learning algorithm (based on in vitro replicative capacities) and were included in the survival models as explanatory variables. In 857 sequential samples from 168 treatment-naïve patients, 17 TDRM were analyzed. RR varied substantially and ranged from 174.0/100-person-years;CI=[51.4, 588.8] (for 184V) to 2.7/100-person-years;[0.7, 10.9] (for 215D). RR increased significantly with fitness cost (increase by 1.6[1.3,2.0] per standard deviation of fitness costs). When subdividing fitness costs into the average fitness cost of a given mutation and the deviation from the average fitness cost of a mutation in a given genetic background, we found that both components were significantly associated with reversion-rates. Our results show that the substantial variations of TDRM persistence in the absence of drugs are associated with fitness-cost differences both among mutations and among different genetic backgrounds for the same mutation.

End-tidal carbon dioxide monitoring using a naso-buccal sensor is not appropriate to monitor capnia during non-invasive ventilation.

BACKGROUND: In acute respiratory failure, arterial blood gas analysis (ABG) is used to diagnose hypercapnia. Once non-invasive ventilation (NIV) is initiated, ABG should at least be repeated within 1 h to assess PaCO2 response to treatment in order to help detect NIV failure. The main aim of this study was to assess whether measuring end-tidal CO2 (EtCO2) with a dedicated naso-buccal sensor during NIV could predict PaCO2 variation and/or PaCO2 absolute values. The additional aim was to assess whether active or passive prolonged expiratory maneuvers could improve the agreement between expiratory CO2 and PaCO2. METHODS: This is a prospective study in adult patients suffering from acute hypercapnic respiratory failure (PaCO2 ≥ 45 mmHg) treated with NIV. EtCO2 and expiratory CO2 values during active and passive expiratory maneuvers were measured using a dedicated naso-buccal sensor and compared to concomitant PaCO2 values. The agreement between two consecutive values of EtCO2 (delta EtCO2) and two consecutive values of PaCO2 (delta PaCO2) and between PaCO2 and concomitant expiratory CO2 values was assessed using the Bland and Altman method adjusted for the effects of repeated measurements. RESULTS: Fifty-four datasets from a population of 11 patients (8 COPD and 3 non-COPD patients), were included in the analysis. PaCO2 values ranged from 39 to 80 mmHg, and EtCO2 from 12 to 68 mmHg. In the observed agreement between delta EtCO2 and deltaPaCO2, bias was -0.3 mmHg, and limits of agreement were -17.8 and 17.2 mmHg. In agreement between PaCO2 and EtCO2, bias was 14.7 mmHg, and limits of agreement were -6.6 and 36.1 mmHg. Adding active and passive expiration maneuvers did not improve PaCO2 prediction. CONCLUSIONS: During NIV delivered for acute hypercapnic respiratory failure, measuring EtCO2 using a dedicating naso-buccal sensor was inaccurate to predict both PaCO2 and PaCO2 variations over time. Active and passive expiration maneuvers did not improve PaCO2 prediction. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01489150.

Clinical effectiveness of direct anterior restorations-A meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: This is the first meta-analysis on the efficacy of composite resin restorations in anterior teeth. The objective of the present meta-analysis was to verify whether specific material classes, tooth conditioning methods and operational procedures influence the result for Class III and Class IV restorations. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The database SCOPUS and PubMed were searched for clinical trials on anterior resin composites without restricting the search to the year of publication. The inclusion criteria were: (1) prospective clinical trial with at least 2 years of observation; (2) minimal number of restorations at last recall=20; (3) report on drop-out rate; (4) report of operative technique and materials used in the trial, and (5) utilization of Ryge or modified Ryge evaluation criteria. For the statistical analysis, a linear mixed model was used with random effects to account for the heterogeneity between the studies. p-Values smaller than 0.05 were considered to be significant. RESULTS: Of the 84 clinical trials, 21 studies met the inclusion criteria, 14 of them for Class III restorations, 6 for Class IV restorations and 1 for closure of diastemata; the latter was included in the Class IV group. Twelve of the 21 studies started before 1991 and 18 before 2001. The estimated median overall success rate (without replacement) after 10 years for Class III composite resin restorations was 95% and for Class IV restorations 90%. The main reason for the replacement of Class IV restorations was bulk fractures, which occurred significantly more frequently with microfilled composites than with hybrid and macrofilled composites. Caries adjacent to restorations was infrequent in most studies and accounted only for about 2.5% of all replaced restorations after 10 years irrespective of the cavity class. Class III restorations with glass ionomer derivates suffered significantly more loss of anatomical form than did fillings with other types of material. When the enamel was acid-etched and no bonding agent was applied, significantly more restorations showed marginal staining and detectable margins compared to enamel etching with enamel bonding or the total etch technique; fillings with self-etching systems were in between of these two outcome variables. Bevelling of the enamel was associated with a significantly reduced deterioration of the anatomical form compared to no bevelling but not with less marginal staining or less detectable margins. The type of isolation (absolute/relative) had a statistically significant influence on marginal caries which, however, might be a random finding.

Increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) with age in HIV-positive men : a comparison of the D:A:D CVD risk equation and general population CVD risk equations

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to statistically model the relative increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) per year older in Data collection on Adverse events of anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) and to compare this with the relative increased risk of CVD per year older in general population risk equations. METHODS: We analysed three endpoints: myocardial infarction (MI), coronary heart disease (CHD: MI or invasive coronary procedure) and CVD (CHD or stroke). We fitted a number of parametric age effects, adjusting for known risk factors and antiretroviral therapy (ART) use. The best-fitting age effect was determined using the Akaike information criterion. We compared the ageing effect from D:A:D with that from the general population risk equations: the Framingham Heart Study, CUORE and ASSIGN risk scores. RESULTS: A total of 24 323 men were included in analyses. Crude MI, CHD and CVD event rates per 1000 person-years increased from 2.29, 3.11 and 3.65 in those aged 40-45 years to 6.53, 11.91 and 15.89 in those aged 60-65 years, respectively. The best-fitting models included inverse age for MI and age + age(2) for CHD and CVD. In D:A:D there was a slowly accelerating increased risk of CHD and CVD per year older, which appeared to be only modest yet was consistently raised compared with the risk in the general population. The relative risk of MI with age was not different between D:A:D and the general population. CONCLUSIONS: We found only limited evidence of accelerating increased risk of CVD with age in D:A:D compared with the general population. The absolute risk of CVD associated with HIV infection remains uncertain.

Plantar flexor neuromuscular adjustments following match-play football in hot and cool conditions.

We assessed neuromuscular fatigue and recovery of the plantar flexors after playing football with or without severe heat stress. Neuromuscular characteristics of the plantar flexors were assessed in 17 male players at baseline and ∼30 min, 24, and 48 h after two 90-min football matches in temperate (∼20 °C and 55% rH) and hot (∼43 °C and 20% rH) environments. Measurements included maximal voluntary strength, muscle activation, twitch contractile properties, and rate of torque development and soleus EMG (i.e., root mean square activity) rise from 0 to 30, -50, -100, and -200 ms during maximal isometric contractions for plantar flexors. Voluntary activation and peak twitch torque were equally reduced (-1.5% and -16.5%, respectively; P < 0.05) post-matches relative to baseline in both conditions, the latter persisting for at least 48 h, whereas strength losses (∼5%) were not significant. Absolute explosive force production declined (P < 0.05) 30 ms after contraction onset independently of condition, with no change at any other epochs. Globally, normalized rate of force development and soleus EMG activity rise values remained unchanged. In football, match-induced alterations in maximal and rapid torque production capacities of the plantar flexors are moderate and do not differ after competing in temperate and hot environments.

On the Adoption of Partial Least Squares in Psychological Research: Caveat Emptor

The partial least squares technique (PLS) has been touted as a viable alternative to latent variable structural equation modeling (SEM) for evaluating theoretical models in the differential psychology domain. We bring some balance to the discussion by reviewing the broader methodological literature to highlight: (1) the misleading characterization of PLS as an SEM method; (2) limitations of PLS for global model testing; (3) problems in testing the significance of path coefficients; (4) extremely high false positive rates when using empirical confidence intervals in conjunction with a new "sign change correction" for path coefficients; (5) misconceptions surrounding the supposedly superior ability of PLS to handle small sample sizes and non-normality; and (6) conceptual and statistical problems with formative measurement and the application of PLS to such models. Additionally, we also reanalyze the dataset provided by Willaby et al. (2015; doi:10.1016/j.paid.2014.09.008) to highlight the limitations of PLS. Our broader review and analysis of the available evidence makes it clear that PLS is not useful for statistical estimation and testing.

Aortic root morphology: a paradigm for successful reconstruction.

Aortic root (AoR) components provide synchronous and precise 3D deformation of the aortic root during the cardiac cycle in order to ensure closure and opening of the three leaflets over a lifetime. Any deviation from the natural 3D morphology, such as with AoR annulus dilatation, enlarged sinuses and/or dilatation of the sinotubular junction, as in the case of ascending aortic dilatation, may result in disruption of the natural AoR function. Surgical treatment of AoR pathology has two modalities: the replacement of the aortic valve by artificial prosthesis or by preservation of the three leaflets and reconstruction of the aortic root components. Currently, there are two basic aortic root reconstruction procedures: aortic root sparing and aortic valve reimplantation techniques. Regardless of the technique used, the restoration of adequate cusp coaptation, is from a technical point of view, the most important element to consider. To achieve this, there are two requirements that need to be met: (i) the valve coaptation should be superior to the level of the aortic root base by at least 8 mm and (ii) the coaptation height per se has to be ≥5 mm. Successful restoration of the aortic root requires adequate technical skills, detailed knowledge of aortic root anatomy and topography, and also knowledge of the spatial pattern of AoR elements. Recently, there has been growing interest in aortic root reconstructive procedures as well their modifications. As such, the aim of this review is to analyse aortic root topography and 3D anatomy from a surgical point of view. The review also focuses on potential risk regions that one should be aware of before the surgical journey into the 'deep waters area' of the AoR begins.

Trends and characteristics of attendance at the emergency department of a Swiss university hospital: 2002-2012.

BACKGROUND: The numbers of people attending emergency departments (EDs) at hospitals are increasing. We aimed to analyse trends in ED attendance at a Swiss university hospital between 2002 and 2012, focussing on age-related differences and hospital admission criteria. METHODS: We used hospital administrative data for all patients aged ≥16 years who attended the ED (n = 298,306) at this university hospital between 1 January 2002, and 31 December 2012. We descriptively analysed the numbers of ED visits according to the admission year and stratified by age (≥65 vs <65 years). RESULTS: People attending the ED were on average 46.6 years old (standard deviation 20 years, maximum range 16‒99 years). The annual number of ED attendances grew by n = 6,639 (27.6%) from 24,080 in 2002 to 30,719 in 2012. In the subgroup of patients aged ≥65 the relative increase was 42.3%, which is significantly higher (Pearson's χ2 = 350.046, df = 10; p = 0.000) than the relative increase of 23.4% among patients <65 years. The subgroup of patients ≥65 years attended the ED more often because of diseases (n = 56,307; 85%) than accidents (n = 9,844; 14.9%). This subgroup (patients ≥65 years) was also more often admitted to hospital (Pearson's χ2 = 23,377.190; df = 1; p = 0.000) than patients <65 years. CONCLUSIONS: ED attendance of patients ≥65 years increased in absolute and relative terms. The study findings suggest that staff of this ED may want to assess the needs of patients ≥65 years and, if necessary, adjust the services (e.g., adapted triage scales, adapted geriatric screenings, and adapted hospital admission criteria).

Most and Least Preferred Colours Differ According to Object Context : New Insights from an Unrestricted Colour Range

Humans like some colours and dislike others, but which particular colours and why remains to be understood. Empirical studies on colour preferences generally targeted most preferred colours, but rarely least preferred (disliked) colours. In addition, findings are often based on general colour preferences leaving open the question whether results generalise to specific objects. Here, 88 participants selected the colours they preferred most and least for three context conditions (general, interior walls, t-shirt) using a high-precision colour picker. Participants also indicated whether they associated their colour choice to a valenced object or concept. The chosen colours varied widely between individuals and contexts and so did the reasons for their choices. Consistent patterns also emerged, as most preferred colours in general were more chromatic, while for walls they were lighter and for t-shirts they were darker and less chromatic compared to least preferred colours. This meant that general colour preferences could not explain object specific colour preferences. Measures of the selection process further revealed that, compared to most preferred colours, least preferred colours were chosen more quickly and were less often linked to valenced objects or concepts. The high intra- and inter-individual variability in this and previous reports furthers our understanding that colour preferences are determined by subjective experiences and that most and least preferred colours are not processed equally.