International registry on splanchnic vein thrombosis: description of the study population

Background: Splanchnic vein thrombosis (SVT) is an uncommon, butpotentially life-threatening disease. Aim of this ISTH based registryis to improve the knowledge on SVT by studying a large, international,unselected population.Methods: Consecutive patients with objectively diagnosed SVT areeligible for the registry. Information on clinical presentations, diagnosticapproaches, risk factors, therapeutic approaches, and recurrencesof SVT, bleedings and deaths at a 2 year follow up are enteredon a website database (www.svt.altervista.org). We planned a samplesize of 500 patients, including all sites of thrombosis.Results: As of December 31st, 2010, 429 patients with SVT (85.8%of the planned sample) have been enrolled at 25 centres from sevencountries. The mean age is 52.6 years (range 16-85 years); 62.2% aremales, 67.8% are Caucasians, and 31.2% Asians. SVT occurred inmultiple vein segments in 36.4% of patients, 40.5% of patients hadisolated portal vein thrombosis, 11.9% of patients had mesentericvein thrombosis, 7.5% had supra-hepatic vein thrombosis, and 3.6%had splenic vein thrombosis. Abdominal pain was the most commonsymptom occurring in 56.6% of the patients; 9.5% of patients hadgastrointestinal bleeding at the time of diagnosis; 25.4% of patientswith SVT were asymptomatic. Mean time between onset of symptomsand diagnosis was 7.4 days. Objective diagnosis was obtained withabdominal CT in 79.9% of patients. Most common risk factors atthe time of diagnosis included cancer (24.1%), cirrhosis (23.1%), andhematological disorders (15.4%); in 15.9% of patients SVT was idiopathic.Most patients were treated with anticoagulant drugs: 30.8%with parenteral drugs only, 56.9% with parenteral drugs followed byvitamin K antagonists.Conclusions: SVT is a major challenge for experts in thrombosis andhemostasis. Large collaborative studies are necessary to improve theunderstanding and the management of this heterogeneous disease.

Moderate to vigorous physical activity and sedentary time and cardiometabolic risk factors in children and adolescents.

CONTEXT: Sparse data exist on the combined associations between physical activity and sedentary time with cardiometabolic risk factors in healthy children. OBJECTIVE: To examine the independent and combined associations between objectively measured time in moderate- to vigorous-intensity physical activity (MVPA) and sedentary time with cardiometabolic risk factors. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Pooled data from 14 studies between 1998 and 2009 comprising 20 871 children (aged 4-18 years) from the International Children's Accelerometry Database. Time spent in MVPA and sedentary time were measured using accelerometry after reanalyzing raw data. The independent associations between time in MVPA and sedentary time, with outcomes, were examined using meta-analysis. Participants were stratified by tertiles of MVPA and sedentary time. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, fasting triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and insulin. RESULTS: Times (mean [SD] min/d) accumulated by children in MVPA and being sedentary were 30 (21) and 354 (96), respectively. Time in MVPA was significantly associated with all cardiometabolic outcomes independent of sex, age, monitor wear time, time spent sedentary, and waist circumference (when not the outcome). Sedentary time was not associated with any outcome independent of time in MVPA. In the combined analyses, higher levels of MVPA were associated with better cardiometabolic risk factors across tertiles of sedentary time. The differences in outcomes between higher and lower MVPA were greater with lower sedentary time. Mean differences in waist circumference between the bottom and top tertiles of MVPA were 5.6 cm (95% CI, 4.8-6.4 cm) for high sedentary time and 3.6 cm (95% CI, 2.8-4.3 cm) for low sedentary time. Mean differences in systolic blood pressure for high and low sedentary time were 0.7 mm Hg (95% CI, -0.07 to 1.6) and 2.5 mm Hg (95% CI, 1.7-3.3), and for high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, differences were -2.6 mg/dL (95% CI, -1.4 to -3.9) and -4.5 mg/dL (95% CI, -3.3 to -5.6), respectively. Geometric mean differences for insulin and triglycerides showed similar variation. Those in the top tertile of MVPA accumulated more than 35 minutes per day in this intensity level compared with fewer than 18 minutes per day for those in the bottom tertile. In prospective analyses (N = 6413 at 2.1 years' follow-up), MVPA and sedentary time were not associated with waist circumference at follow-up, but a higher waist circumference at baseline was associated with higher amounts of sedentary time at follow-up. CONCLUSION: Higher MVPA time by children and adolescents was associated with better cardiometabolic risk factors regardless of the amount of sedentary time.

Risk Factors in Fatal Cases of Anaphylaxis due to Contrast Media: A Forensic Evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Fatalities following contrast medium exposure are extremely rare in clinical routine, though they may occur as an exception. Some may fall under the purview of the inquiring authorities and forensic pathologists due to their in-hospital occurrence. The purpose of this study was to assess the risk factors for anaphylaxis due to contrast medium administration that can be identified in fatal cases. METHODS: Fatalities occurred during the course of clinical investigations with contrast media described in the literature and fatal reactions to contrast agents that had undergone forensic investigations in our medicolegal center were reviewed with respect to patient characteristics, administered contrast medium, performed biochemical investigations and potential risk factors identified based on clinical history and medical records. RESULTS: Biochemical investigations into the fatal cases examined in our facility revealed increased mast cell tryptase, total IgE and activated mast cells in all subjects. Data obtained from the literature and our own investigations indicated that in only a minority of the fatal cases had there been previous exposure to contrast compounds, while most cases of severe anaphylaxis involved patients who apparently reacted on initial exposure. CONCLUSIONS: Most fatal cases failed to present any identifiable predisposing conditions out of those traditionally considered as risk factors for an anaphylactic reaction to contrast compounds in the medical histories of the patients. Comprehensive clinical histories and thorough reviews of medical data, along with exhaustive forensic investigations, provide information that is relevant in order to better appreciate the interwoven relationships linking all factors potentially involved in the pathogenesis of fatal anaphylaxis to contrast media. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Global alcohol exposure estimates by country, territory and region for 2005--a contribution to the Comparative Risk Assessment for the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study.

AIMS: This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of life-time abstainers, former drinkers and current drinkers, adult per-capita consumption of alcohol and pattern of drinking scores, by country and Global Burden of Disease region for 2005, and to forecast these indicators for 2010. DESIGN: Statistical modelling based on survey data and routine statistics. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 241 countries and territories. MEASUREMENTS: Per-capita consumption data were obtained with the help of the World Health Organization's Global Information System on Alcohol and Health. Drinking status data were obtained from Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study, the STEPwise approach to Surveillance study, the World Health Survey/Multi-Country Study and other surveys. Consumption and drinking status data were triangulated to estimate alcohol consumption across multiple categories. FINDINGS: In 2005 adult per-capita annual consumption of alcohol was 6.1 litres, with 1.7 litres stemming from unrecorded consumption; 17.1 litres of alcohol were consumed per drinker, 45.8% of all adults were life-time abstainers, 13.6% were former drinkers and 40.6% were current drinkers. Life-time abstention was most prevalent in North Africa/Middle East and South Asia. Eastern Europe and Southern sub-Saharan Africa had the most detrimental pattern of drinking scores, while drinkers in Europe (Eastern and Central) and sub-Saharan Africa (Southern and West) consumed the most alcohol. CONCLUSIONS: Just over 40% of the world's adult population consumes alcohol and the average consumption per drinker is 17.1 litres per year. However, the prevalence of abstention, level of alcohol consumption and patterns of drinking vary widely across regions of the world.

FRAX® International Task Force of the 2010 Joint International Society for Clinical Densitometry & International Osteoporosis Foundation Position Development Conference.

Osteoporosis is a serious worldwide epidemic. FRAX® is a web-based tool developed by the Sheffield WHO Collaborating Center team, that integrates clinical risk factors and femoral neck BMD and calculates the 10 year fracture probability in order to help health care professionals identify patients who need treatment. However, only 31 countries have a FRAX® calculator. In the absence of a FRAX® model for a particular country, it has been suggested to use a surrogate country for which the epidemiology of osteoporosis most closely approximates the index country. More specific recommendations for clinicians in these countries are not available. In North America, concerns have also been raised regarding the assumptions used to construct the US ethnic specific FRAX® calculators with respect to the correction factors applied to derive fracture probabilities in Blacks, Asians and Hispanics in comparison to Whites. In addition, questions were raised about calculating fracture risk in other ethnic groups e.g., Native Americans and First Canadians. The International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) in conjunction with the International Osteoporosis Foundation (IOF) assembled an international panel of experts that ultimately developed joint Official Positions of the ISCD and IOF advising clinicians regarding FRAX® usage. As part of the process, the charge of the FRAX® International Task Force was to review and synthesize data regarding geographic and race/ethnic variability in hip fractures, non-hip osteoporotic fractures, and make recommendations about the use of FRAX® in ethnic groups and countries without a FRAX® calculator. This synthesis was presented to the expert panel and constitutes the data on which the subsequent Official Positions are predicated. A summary of the International Task Force composition and charge is presented here.

Acvbp Versus Acvbp Plus Rituximab For Young Patients With Localized Low-Risk Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma: A Study By The Groupe D'etude Des Lymphomes De L'adulte

Introduction: In a prior study, we demonstrated that ACVBP + consolidation was superior to 3 cycles of CHOP + radiotherapy in young patients (pts) with localized aggressive lymphoma (Reyes F et al. N Engl J Med 2005;352:1197). This randomized trial compared in these pts ACVBP vs. ACVBP + a short course of rituximab (R-ACVBP).Methods: untreated pts between 18 and 65y with stage I/II DLBCL and no adverse prognostic factors according to the aa-IPI were eligible. ACVBP consisted of 3 induction cycles given every 2 weeks: doxorubicin (75 mg/m2) day 1, cyclophosphamide (1.2g/m2) day 1, vindesine (2 mg/m2) day 1 and 5, bleomycin (10 mg) day 1 and 5, prednisone (60 mg/m2) day 1 to 5 followed by consolidation with metothrexate, ifosfamide, VP-16 and cytarabine. R-ACVBP consisted of the same regimen combined with 4 doses of rituximab (375 mg/m2) on day 1, 15, 29 and 43. Primary objective was EFS.Results: From 01/04 to 03/08, 223 pts were randomized, 113 in ACVBP and 110 in R-ACVBP arm. Characteristics were: median age 49y (18-65), stage I 63%, extranodal involvement 45%, bulky disease 4%. CR was 94% in ACVBP and 97% in ACVBP arm (ns). With a median follow-up of 43 months, the 3-y EFS was 82% (95% CI, 73% to 88%) in ACVBP and 93% (95% CI, 87% to 97%) in R-ACVBP group (P=0.0487). The 3-y PFS was 83% (95% CI, 74% to 89%) and 95% (95% CI, 89% to 98%) respectively (P=0.0205). OS did not significantly differ with a 3-y estimates of 97% (95% CI, 90% to 99%) for ACVBP and 98% (95% CI, 92% to 100%) for R-ACVBP (P=0.686). In multivariate analysis, a longer PFS was associated with R-ACVBP arm (P=0.0302) and lower b2-m level (P=0.0164). The same proportion of pts (27%) experienced at least 1 SAE in both groups. There were 4 deaths in each arm, with 1 treatment-related death in R-ACVBP (pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia).Conclusion: the addition of only 4 doses of rituximab to ACVBP significantly improves EFS and PFS in younger pts with low-risk localized DLBCL.

Shoulder strength imbalances as injury risk in handball.

This study was conducted to analyze whether internal (IR) and external (ER) rotator shoulder muscles weakness and/or imbalance collected through a preseason assessment could be predictors of subsequent shoulder injury during a season in handball players. In preseason, 16 female elite handball players (HPG) and 14 healthy female nonathletes (CG) underwent isokinetic IR and ER strength test with use of a Con-Trex® dynamometer in a seated position with 45° shoulder abduction in scapular plane, at 60, 120 and 240°/s in concentric and at 60°/s in eccentric, for both sides. An imbalanced muscular strength profile was determined using -statistically selected cut-offs from CG values. For HPG, all newly incurred shoulder injuries were reported during the season. There were significant differences between HPG and CG only for dominant eccentric IR strength, ER/IR ratio at 240°/s and for IRecc/ERcon ratio. In HPG, IR and ER strength was higher, and ER/IR ratios lower for dominant than for nondominant side. The relative risk was 2.57 (95%CI: 1.60-3.54; P<0.05) if handball players had an imbalanced muscular strength profile. In youth female handball players IR and ER muscle strength increases on the dominant side without ER/IR imbalances; and higher injury risk was associated with imbalanced muscular strength profile.

Placental vascular obstructive lesions: risk factor for developing necrotizing enterocolitis.

Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is a severe neonatal disease affecting particularly preterm infants. Its exact pathogenesis still remains unknown. In this study, we have compared the prevalence of vascular obstructive lesions in placentae of premature newborns which developed NEC and of a control group. We further compared separately the findings of placentae of infants of less than 30 weeks of gestation, the age group in which NEC occurs most frequently. We found signs of fetal vascular obstructive lesions in 65% of the placentae of preterm patients developing NEC, compared to only 17% of the placentae of preterm patients in the control group. In the age groups below 30 weeks of gestation, 58.5% of placentae of later NEC patients presented such lesions compared to 24.5% in the control group. The significant difference between NEC and control group suggests a strong association between fetal vascular obstructive lesions and NEC. Therefore, we propose that fetal vascular obstructive lesions might be considered as a risk factor for the development of NEC in premature infants.

Financial Markets and Real Ecinomy: Four Essays in International Trade

Financial markets play an important role in an economy performing various functions like mobilizing and pooling savings, producing information about investment opportunities, screening and monitoring investments, implementation of corporate governance, diversification and management of risk. These functions influence saving rates, investment decisions, technological innovation and, therefore, have important implications for welfare. In my PhD dissertation I examine the interplay of financial and product markets by looking at different channels through which financial markets may influence an economy.My dissertation consists of four chapters. The first chapter is a co-authored work with Martin Strieborny, a PhD student from the University of Lausanne. The second chapter is a co-authored work with Melise Jaud, a PhD student from the Paris School of Economics. The third chapter is co-authored with both Melise Jaud and Martin Strieborny. The last chapter of my PhD dissertation is a single author paper.Chapter 1 of my PhD thesis analyzes the effect of financial development on growth of contract intensive industries. These industries intensively use intermediate inputs that neither can be sold on organized exchange, nor are reference-priced (Levchenko, 2007; Nunn, 2007). A typical example of a contract intensive industry would be an industry where an upstream supplier has to make investments in order to customize a product for needs of a downstream buyer. After the investment is made and the product is adjusted, the buyer may refuse to meet a commitment and trigger ex post renegotiation. Since the product is customized to the buyer's needs, the supplier cannot sell the product to a different buyer at the original price. This is referred in the literature as the holdup problem. As a consequence, the individually rational suppliers will underinvest into relationship-specific assets, hurting the downstream firms with negative consequences for aggregate growth. The standard way to mitigate the hold up problem is to write a binding contract and to rely on the legal enforcement by the state. However, even the most effective contract enforcement might fail to protect the supplier in tough times when the buyer lacks a reliable source of external financing. This suggests the potential role of financial intermediaries, banks in particular, in mitigating the incomplete contract problem. First, financial products like letters of credit and letters of guarantee can substantially decrease a risk and transaction costs of parties. Second, a bank loan can serve as a signal about a buyer's true financial situation, an upstream firm will be more willing undertake relationship-specific investment knowing that the business partner is creditworthy and will abstain from myopic behavior (Fama, 1985; von Thadden, 1995). Therefore, a well-developed financial (especially banking) system should disproportionately benefit contract intensive industries.The empirical test confirms this hypothesis. Indeed, contract intensive industries seem to grow faster in countries with a well developed financial system. Furthermore, this effect comes from a more developed banking sector rather than from a deeper stock market. These results are reaffirmed examining the effect of US bank deregulation on the growth of contract intensive industries in different states. Beyond an overall pro-growth effect, the bank deregulation seems to disproportionately benefit the industries requiring relationship-specific investments from their suppliers.Chapter 2 of my PhD focuses on the role of the financial sector in promoting exports of developing countries. In particular, it investigates how credit constraints affect the ability of firms operating in agri-food sectors of developing countries to keep exporting to foreign markets.Trade in high-value agri-food products from developing countries has expanded enormously over the last two decades offering opportunities for development. However, trade in agri-food is governed by a growing array of standards. Sanitary and Phytosanitary standards (SPS) and technical regulations impose additional sunk, fixed and operating costs along the firms' export life. Such costs may be detrimental to firms' survival, "pricing out" producers that cannot comply. The existence of these costs suggests a potential role of credit constraints in shaping the duration of trade relationships on foreign markets. A well-developed financial system provides the funds to exporters necessary to adjust production processes in order to meet quality and quantity requirements in foreign markets and to maintain long-standing trade relationships. The products with higher needs for financing should benefit the most from a well functioning financial system. This differential effect calls for a difference-in-difference approach initially proposed by Rajan and Zingales (1998). As a proxy for demand for financing of agri-food products, the sanitary risk index developed by Jaud et al. (2009) is used. The empirical literature on standards and norms show high costs of compliance, both variable and fixed, for high-value food products (Garcia-Martinez and Poole, 2004; Maskus et al., 2005). The sanitary risk index reflects the propensity of products to fail health and safety controls on the European Union (EU) market. Given the high costs of compliance, the sanitary risk index captures the demand for external financing to comply with such regulations.The prediction is empirically tested examining the export survival of different agri-food products from firms operating in Ghana, Mali, Malawi, Senegal and Tanzania. The results suggest that agri-food products that require more financing to keep up with food safety regulation of the destination market, indeed sustain longer in foreign market, when they are exported from countries with better developed financial markets.Chapter 3 analyzes the link between financial markets and efficiency of resource allocation in an economy. Producing and exporting products inconsistent with a country's factor endowments constitutes a serious misallocation of funds, which undermines competitiveness of the economy and inhibits its long term growth. In this chapter, inefficient exporting patterns are analyzed through the lens of the agency theories from the corporate finance literature. Managers may pursue projects with negative net present values because their perquisites or even their job might depend on them. Exporting activities are particularly prone to this problem. Business related to foreign markets involves both high levels of additional spending and strong incentives for managers to overinvest. Rational managers might have incentives to push for exports that use country's scarce factors which is suboptimal from a social point of view. Export subsidies might further skew the incentives towards inefficient exporting. Management can divert the export subsidies into investments promoting inefficient exporting.Corporate finance literature stresses the disciplining role of outside debt in counteracting the internal pressures to divert such "free cash flow" into unprofitable investments. Managers can lose both their reputation and the control of "their" firm if the unpaid external debt triggers a bankruptcy procedure. The threat of possible failure to satisfy debt service payments pushes the managers toward an efficient use of available resources (Jensen, 1986; Stulz, 1990; Hart and Moore, 1995). The main sources of debt financing in the most countries are banks. The disciplining role of banks might be especially important in the countries suffering from insufficient judicial quality. Banks, in pursuing their rights, rely on comparatively simple legal interventions that can be implemented even by mediocre courts. In addition to their disciplining role, banks can promote efficient exporting patterns in a more direct way by relaxing credit constraints of producers, through screening, identifying and investing in the most profitable investment projects. Therefore, a well-developed domestic financial system, and particular banking system, would help to push a country's exports towards products congruent with its comparative advantage.This prediction is tested looking at the survival of different product categories exported to US market. Products are identified according to the Euclidian distance between their revealed factor intensity and the country's factor endowments. The results suggest that products suffering from a comparative disadvantage (labour-intensive products from capital-abundant countries) survive less on the competitive US market. This pattern is stronger if the exporting country has a well-developed banking system. Thus, a strong banking sector promotes exports consistent with a country comparative advantage.Chapter 4 of my PhD thesis further examines the role of financial markets in fostering efficient resource allocation in an economy. In particular, the allocative efficiency hypothesis is investigated in the context of equity market liberalization.Many empirical studies document a positive and significant effect of financial liberalization on growth (Levchenko et al. 2009; Quinn and Toyoda 2009; Bekaert et al., 2005). However, the decrease in the cost of capital and the associated growth in investment appears rather modest in comparison to the large GDP growth effect (Bekaert and Harvey, 2005; Henry, 2000, 2003). Therefore, financial liberalization may have a positive impact on growth through its effect on the allocation of funds across firms and sectors.Free access to international capital markets allows the largest and most profitable domestic firms to borrow funds in foreign markets (Rajan and Zingales, 2003). As domestic banks loose some of their best clients, they reoptimize their lending practices seeking new clients among small and younger industrial firms. These firms are likely to be more risky than large and established companies. Screening of customers becomes prevalent as the return to screening rises. Banks, ceteris paribus, tend to focus on firms operating in comparative-advantage sectors because they are better risks. Firms in comparative-disadvantage sectors finding it harder to finance their entry into or survival in export markets either exit or refrain from entering export markets. On aggregate, one should therefore expect to see less entry, more exit, and shorter survival on export markets in those sectors after financial liberalization.The paper investigates the effect of financial liberalization on a country's export pattern by comparing the dynamics of entry and exit of different products in a country export portfolio before and after financial liberalization.The results suggest that products that lie far from the country's comparative advantage set tend to disappear relatively faster from the country's export portfolio following the liberalization of financial markets. In other words, financial liberalization tends to rebalance the composition of a country's export portfolio towards the products that intensively use the economy's abundant factors.

The prevalence and management of cardiovascular risk factors in immigrant groups in Switzerland.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the prevalence and management of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) between immigrant groups and Swiss nationals. METHODS: The Swiss Health Surveys (SHS, N = 49,245) and CoLaus study (N = 6,710) were used. Immigrant groups from France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain, former Yugoslavia, other European and other countries were defined. RESULTS: Immigrants from Italy, France, Portugal, Spain and former Yugoslavia presented a higher prevalence of smoking than Swiss nationals. Immigrants reported less hypertension than Swiss nationals, but the differences were reduced when blood pressure measurements were used. The prevalence of dyslipidaemia was similar between immigrants and Swiss nationals in the SHS. When eligibility for statin treatment was assessed, immigrants from Italy were more frequently eligible than Swiss nationals. Immigrants from former Yugoslavia presented a lower prevalence of diabetes in the SHS, but a higher prevalence in the CoLaus study. Most differences between immigrant groups and Swiss nationals disappeared after adjusting for age, leisure-time physical activity, being overweight/obesity and education. CONCLUSIONS: Most CVRFs are unevenly distributed among immigrant groups in Switzerland, but these differences are due to disparities in age, leisure-time physical activity, being overweight/obesity and education.

Association of different lipid measures for atherogenic lipid fractions and risk of coronary events in patients receiving combination antiretroviral therapy: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

Background: Evidence for a better performance of different highly atherogenic versus traditional lipid parameters for coronary heart disease (CHD) risk prediction is conflicting. We investigated the association of the ratios of sma11 dense low density lipoprotein(LDL)/apoplipoprotein A, aolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I and total cholesterol! HDL-cholesterol and CHD events in patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART).Methods: Case control study nested into the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: for each cART-treated patient with a first coronary event between April 1, 2000 and July 31, 2008 (case) we selected four control patients (1) that were without coronary events until the date of the event of the index case, (2) had a plasma sample within ±30 days of the sample date of the respective case, (3) received cART and (4) were then matched for age, gender and smoking status. Lipoproteins were measured by ultracentrifugation. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate the independent effects of different lipid ratios and the occurrence of coronary events.Results: In total, 98 cases (19 fatal myocardial infarctions [MI] and 79 non-fatal coronary events [53 definite MIs, 15 possible MIs and 11 coronary angioplasties or bypassesJ) were matched with 392 controls. Cases were more often injecting drug users, less likely to be virologically suppressed and more often on abacavir-containing regimens. In separa te multivariable models of total cholesterol, triglycerides, HDL-cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, abdominal obesity, diabetes and family history of CHD, small dense-LDL and apolipoprotein B were each statistically significantly associated with CHD events (for 1 mg/dl increase: odds ratio [OR] 1.05, 95% CI 1.00-1.11 and 1.15, 95% CI 1.01-1.31, respectively), but the ratiosof small dense-LDLlapolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.26, 95% CI 0.95-1.67), apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.97-1.07) and HDL-cholesterol! total cholesterol (OR 0.99 95% CI 0.98-1.00) were not. Following adjustment for HIV related and cART variables these associations were weakened in each model: apolipoprotein B (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.00-1.30), sd-LDL (OR 1.04, 95% CI 0.99-1.20), small dense-LDLlapolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.17, 95% CI 0.87-1.58), apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.97-1.07) and total cholesterolJHDL- cholesterol (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.99-1.00).Conclusions: In patients receiving cART, small dense-LDL and apolipoprotein B showed the strongest associations with CHD events in models controlling for traditional CHD risk factors including total cholesterol and triglycerides. Adding small dense LDLlapoplipoprotein A-l, apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I and total cholesterol! HDL-cholesterol ratios did not further improve models of lipid parameters and associations of increased risk for CHD events.

On landslide risk, resilience and vulnerability of mountain communities in Central-Eastern Nepal

Executive SummaryIn Nepal, landslides are one of the major natural hazards after epidemics, killing over 100 persons per year. However, this figure is an underreported reflection of the actual impact that landslides have on livelihoods and food security in rural Nepal. With predictions of more intense rainfall patterns, landslide occurrence in the Himalayas is likely to increase and continue to be one of the major impediments to development. Due to the remoteness of many localities and lack of resources, responsibilities for disaster preparedness and response in mountain areas usually lie with the communities themselves. Everyday life is full of risk in mountains of Nepal. This is why mountain populations, as well as other populations living in harsh conditions have developed a number of coping strategies for dealing with adverse situations. Perhaps due to the dispersed and remote nature of landslides in Nepal, there have been few studies on vulnerability, coping- and mitigation strategies of landslide affected populations. There are also few recommendations available to guide authorities and populations how to reduce losses due to landslides in Nepal, and even less so, how to operationalize resilience and vulnerability.Many policy makers, international donors, NGOs and national authorities are currently asking what investments are needed to increase the so-called 'resilience' of mountain populations to deal with climate risks. However, mountain populations are already quite resilient to seasonal fluctuations, temperature variations, rainfall patterns and market prices. In spite of their resilience, they continue to live in places at risk due to high vulnerability caused by structural inequalities: access to land, resources, markets, education. This interdisciplinary thesis examines the concept of resilience by questioning its usefulness and validity as the current goal of international development and disaster risk reduction policies, its conceptual limitations and its possible scope of action. The goal of this study is two-fold: to better define and distinguish factors and relationships between resilience, vulnerability, capacities and risk; and to test and improve a participatory methodology for evaluating landslide risk that can serve as a guidance tool for improving community-based disaster risk reduction. The objective is to develop a simple methodology that can be used by NGOs, local authorities and communities to reduce losses from landslides.Through its six case studies in Central-Eastern Nepal, this study explores the relation between resilience, vulnerability and landslide risk based on interdisciplinary methods, including geological assessments of landslides, semi-structured interviews, focus groups and participatory risk mapping. For comparison, the study sites were chosen in Tehrathum, Sunsari and Dolakha Districts of Central/Eastern Nepal, to reflect a variety of landslide types, from chronic to acute, and a variety of communities, from very marginalized to very high status. The study uses the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach as its conceptual basis, which is based on the notion that access and rights to resources (natural, human/institutional, economic, environmental, physical) are the basis for coping with adversity, such as landslides. The study is also intended as a contribution to the growing literature and practices on Community Based Disaster Risk Reduction specifically adapted to landslide- prone areas.In addition to the six case studies, results include an indicator based methodology for assessing and measuring vulnerability and resilience, a composite risk assessment methodology, a typology of coping strategies and risk perceptions and a thorough analysis of the relation between risk, vulnerability and resilience. The methodology forassessing vulnerability, resilience and risk is relatively cost-effective and replicable in a low-data environment. Perhaps the major finding is that resilience is a process that defines a community's (or system's) capacity to rebound following adversity but it does not necessarily reduce vulnerability or risk, which requires addressing more structural issues related to poverty. Therefore, conclusions include a critical view of resilience as a main goal of international development and disaster risk reduction policies. It is a useful concept in the context of recovery after a disaster but it needs to be addressed in parallel with vulnerability and risk.This research was funded by an interdisciplinary grant (#26083591) from the Swiss National Science Foundation for the period 2009-2011 and a seed grant from the Faculty of Geosciences and Environment at the University of Lausanne in 2008.Résumé en françaisAu Népal, les glissements de terrain sont un des aléas les plus dévastateurs après les épidémies, causant 100 morts par an. Pourtant, ce chiffre est une sous-estimation de l'impact réel de l'effet des glissements sur les moyens de subsistance et la sécurité alimentaire au Népal. Avec des prévisions de pluies plus intenses, l'occurrence des glissements dans les Himalayas augmente et présente un obstacle au développement. Du fait de l'éloignement et du manque de ressources dans les montagnes au Népal, la responsabilité de la préparation et la réponse aux catastrophes se trouve chez les communautés elles-mêmes. Le risque fait partie de la vie quotidienne dans les montagnes du Népal. C'est pourquoi les populations montagnardes, comme d'autres populations vivant dans des milieux contraignants, ont développé des stratégies pour faire face aux situations défavorables. Peu d'études existent sur la vulnérabilité, ceci étant probablement dû à l'éloignement et pourtant, les stratégies d'adaptation et de mitigation des populations touchées par des glissements au Népal existent.Beaucoup de décideurs politiques, bailleurs de fonds, ONG et autorités nationales se demandent quels investissements sont nécessaires afin d'augmenter la 'resilience' des populations de montagne pour faire face aux changements climatiques. Pourtant, ces populations sont déjà résilientes aux fluctuations des saisons, des variations de température, des pluies et des prix des marchés. En dépit de leur résilience, ils continuent de vivre dans des endroits à fort risque à cause des vulnérabilités créées par les inégalités structurelles : l'accès à la terre, aux ressources, aux marchés et à l'éducation. Cette thèse interdisciplinaire examine le concept de la résilience en mettant en cause son utilité et sa validité en tant que but actuel des politiques internationales de développement et de réduction des risques, ainsi que ses limitations conceptuelles et ses possibles champs d'action. Le but de cette étude est double : mieux définir et distinguer les facteurs et relations entre la résilience, la vulnérabilité, les capacités et le risque ; Et tester et améliorer une méthode participative pour évaluer le risque des glissements qui peut servir en tant qu'outil indicatif pour améliorer la réduction des risques des communautés. Le but est de développer une méthodologie simple qui peut être utilisée par des ONG, autorités locales et communautés pour réduire les pertes dues aux glissements.A travers les études de cas au centre-est du Népal, cette étude explore le rapport entre la résilience, la vulnérabilité et les glissements basée sur des méthodes interdisciplinaires ; Y sont inclus des évaluations géologiques des glissements, des entretiens semi-dirigés, des discussions de groupes et des cartes de risques participatives. Pour la comparaison, les zones d'études ont été sélectionnées dans les districts de Tehrathum, Sunsari et Dolakha dans le centre-est du Népal, afin de refléter différents types de glissements, de chroniques à urgents, ainsi que différentes communautés, variant de très marginalisées à très haut statut. Pour son cadre conceptuel, cette étude s'appuie sur l'approche de moyens de subsistance durable, qui est basée sur les notions d'accès et de droit aux ressources (naturelles, humaines/institutionnelles, économiques, environnementales, physiques) et qui sont le minimum pour faire face à des situations difficiles, comme des glissements. Cette étude se veut aussi une contribution à la littérature et aux pratiques en croissantes sur la réduction des risques communautaires, spécifiquement adaptées aux zones affectées par des glissements.En plus des six études de cas, les résultats incluent une méthodologie basée sur des indicateurs pour évaluer et mesurer la vulnérabilité et la résilience, une méthodologie sur le risque composé, une typologie de stratégies d'adaptation et perceptions des risques ainsi qu'une analyse fondamentale de la relation entre risque, vulnérabilité et résilience. Les méthodologies pour l'évaluation de la vulnérabilité, de la résilience et du risque sont relativement peu coûteuses et reproductibles dans des endroits avec peu de données disponibles. Le résultat probablement le plus pertinent est que la résilience est un processus qui définit la capacité d'une communauté (ou d'un système) à rebondir suite à une situation défavorable, mais qui ne réduit pas forcement la vulnérabilité ou le risque, et qui requiert une approche plus fondamentale s'adressant aux questions de pauvreté. Les conclusions incluent une vue critique de la résilience comme but principal des politiques internationales de développement et de réduction des risques. C'est un concept utile dans le contexte de la récupération après une catastrophe mais il doit être pris en compte au même titre que la vulnérabilité et le risque.Cette recherche a été financée par un fonds interdisciplinaire (#26083591) du Fonds National Suisse pour la période 2009-2011 et un fonds de préparation de recherches par la Faculté des Géosciences et Environnement à l'Université de Lausanne en 2008.