Sex differences in urinary levels of several biological indicators of exposure: a simulation study using a compartmental based toxicokinetic model

Toxicokinetic modeling is a useful tool to describe or predict the behavior of a chemical agent in the human or animal organism. A general model based on four compartments was developed in a previous study in order to quantify the effect of human variability on a wide range of biological exposure indicators. The aim of this study was to adapt this existing general toxicokinetic model to three organic solvents, which were methyl ethyl ketone, 1-methoxy-2-propanol and 1,1,1,-trichloroethane, and to take into account sex differences. We assessed in a previous human volunteer study the impact of sex on different biomarkers of exposure corresponding to the three organic solvents mentioned above. Results from that study suggested that not only physiological differences between men and women but also differences due to sex hormones levels could influence the toxicokinetics of the solvents. In fact the use of hormonal contraceptive had an effect on the urinary levels of several biomarkers, suggesting that exogenous sex hormones could influence CYP2E1 enzyme activity. These experimental data were used to calibrate the toxicokinetic models developed in this study. Our results showed that it was possible to use an existing general toxicokinetic model for other compounds. In fact, most of the simulation results showed good agreement with the experimental data obtained for the studied solvents, with a percentage of model predictions that lies within the 95% confidence interval varying from 44.4 to 90%. Results pointed out that for same exposure conditions, men and women can show important differences in urinary levels of biological indicators of exposure. Moreover, when running the models by simulating industrial working conditions, these differences could even be more pronounced. In conclusion, a general and simple toxicokinetic model, adapted for three well known organic solvents, allowed us to show that metabolic parameters can have an important impact on the urinary levels of the corresponding biomarkers. These observations give evidence of an interindividual variablity, an aspect that should have its place in the approaches for setting limits of occupational exposure.

A probabilistic approach to niche-based community models for spatial forecasts of assemblage properties and their uncertainties

Aim Conservation strategies are in need of predictions that capture spatial community composition and structure. Currently, the methods used to generate these predictions generally focus on deterministic processes and omit important stochastic processes and other unexplained variation in model outputs. Here we test a novel approach of community models that accounts for this variation and determine how well it reproduces observed properties of alpine butterfly communities. Location The western Swiss Alps. Methods We propose a new approach to process probabilistic predictions derived from stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs) in order to predict and assess the uncertainty in the predictions of community properties. We test the utility of our novel approach against a traditional threshold-based approach. We used mountain butterfly communities spanning a large elevation gradient as a case study and evaluated the ability of our approach to model species richness and phylogenetic diversity of communities. Results S-SDMs reproduced the observed decrease in phylogenetic diversity and species richness with elevation, syndromes of environmental filtering. The prediction accuracy of community properties vary along environmental gradient: variability in predictions of species richness was higher at low elevation, while it was lower for phylogenetic diversity. Our approach allowed mapping the variability in species richness and phylogenetic diversity projections. Main conclusion Using our probabilistic approach to process species distribution models outputs to reconstruct communities furnishes an improved picture of the range of possible assemblage realisations under similar environmental conditions given stochastic processes and help inform manager of the uncertainty in the modelling results

Modelling plant species distribution in alpine grasslands using airborne imaging spectroscopy.

Remote sensing using airborne imaging spectroscopy (AIS) is known to retrieve fundamental optical properties of ecosystems. However, the value of these properties for predicting plant species distribution remains unclear. Here, we assess whether such data can add value to topographic variables for predicting plant distributions in French and Swiss alpine grasslands. We fitted statistical models with high spectral and spatial resolution reflectance data and tested four optical indices sensitive to leaf chlorophyll content, leaf water content and leaf area index. We found moderate added-value of AIS data for predicting alpine plant species distribution. Contrary to expectations, differences between species distribution models (SDMs) were not linked to their local abundance or phylogenetic/functional similarity. Moreover, spectral signatures of species were found to be partly site-specific. We discuss current limits of AIS-based SDMs, highlighting issues of scale and informational content of AIS data.

What drives invasibility? A multi-model inference test and spatial modelling of alien plant species richness patterns in northern Portugal

Understanding and anticipating biological invasions can focus either on traits that favour species invasiveness or on features of the receiving communities, habitats or landscapes that promote their invasibility. Here, we address invasibility at the regional scale, testing whether some habitats and landscapes are more invasible than others by fitting models that relate alien plant species richness to various environmental predictors. We use a multi-model information-theoretic approach to assess invasibility by modelling spatial and ecological patterns of alien invasion in landscape mosaics and testing competing hypotheses of environmental factors that may control invasibility. Because invasibility may be mediated by particular characteristics of invasiveness, we classified alien species according to their C-S-R plant strategies. We illustrate this approach with a set of 86 alien species in Northern Portugal. We first focus on predictors influencing species richness and expressing invasibility and then evaluate whether distinct plant strategies respond to the same or different groups of environmental predictors. We confirmed climate as a primary determinant of alien invasions and as a primary environmental gradient determining landscape invasibility. The effects of secondary gradients were detected only when the area was sub-sampled according to predictions based on the primary gradient. Then, multiple predictor types influenced patterns of alien species richness, with some types (landscape composition, topography and fire regime) prevailing over others. Alien species richness responded most strongly to extreme land management regimes, suggesting that intermediate disturbance induces biotic resistance by favouring native species richness. Land-use intensification facilitated alien invasion, whereas conservation areas hosted few invaders, highlighting the importance of ecosystem stability in preventing invasions. Plants with different strategies exhibited different responses to environmental gradients, particularly when the variations of the primary gradient were narrowed by sub-sampling. Such differential responses of plant strategies suggest using distinct control and eradication approaches for different areas and alien plant groups.

Etiology of community-acquired pneumonia in hospitalized children based on WHO clinical guidelines.

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a major cause of death in developing countries and of morbidity in developed countries. The objective of the study was to define the causative agents among children hospitalized for CAP defined by WHO guidelines and to correlate etiology with clinical severity and surrogate markers. Investigations included an extensive etiological workup. A potential causative agent was detected in 86% of the 99 enrolled patients, with evidence of bacterial (53%), viral (67%), and mixed (33%) infections. Streptococcus pneumoniae was accounted for in 46% of CAP. Dehydration was the only clinical sign associated with bacterial pneumonia. CRP and PCT were significantly higher in bacterial infections. Increasing the number of diagnostic tests identifies potential causes of CAP in up to 86% of children, indicating a high prevalence of viruses and frequent co-infections. The high proportion of pneumococcal infections re-emphasizes the importance of pneumococcal immunization.

Systematic assessment of factors influencing preferences of crohn's disease patients in selecting an anti-tumor necrosis factor agent (CHOOSE TNF TRIAL).

BACKGROUND: Infliximab (IFX), adalimumab (ADA), and certolizumab pegol (CZP) have similar efficacy in induction and maintenance of clinical remission in Crohn's disease (CD). Given the comparable nature of these drugs, patient preferences may influence the choice of the product. We aimed to identify factors that may contribute to CD patients' decision in selecting one anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) agent over the others. METHODS: A prospective survey was performed among anti-TNF-naïve CD patients. Prior to completion of a questionnaire, patients were provided with a written description of the three anti-TNF agents, focusing on indications, mode of administration, side effects, and scientific evidence of efficacy and safety for each drug. RESULTS: One hundred patients (47 females, mean age 45 ± 16 years, range 19-81) with an ileal, colonic, or ileocolonic (33%, 40%, and 27%, respectively) disease location completed the questionnaire. Based on the information provided, 36% of patients preferred ADA, 28% CZP, and 25% IFX, whereas 11% were undecided. The patients' decision in selecting a specific anti-TNF drug was influenced by the following factors: ease of use (69%), time required for therapy (34%), time interval between application of the drug (31%), scientific evidence for efficacy (19%), and fear of syringes (10%). CONCLUSIONS: The majority of patients preferred anti-TNF medications that were administered by subcutaneous injection rather than by intravenous infusion. Ease of use and time required for therapy were two major factors influencing the patients' selection of a specific anti-TNF drug. Patients' individual preferences should be taken into account when prescribing anti-TNF drugs. (Inflamm Bowel Dis 2012).

Are niche-based species distribution models transferable in space?

Aim To assess the geographical transferability of niche-based species distribution models fitted with two modelling techniques. Location Two distinct geographical study areas in Switzerland and Austria, in the subalpine and alpine belts. Methods Generalized linear and generalized additive models (GLM and GAM) with a binomial probability distribution and a logit link were fitted for 54 plant species, based on topoclimatic predictor variables. These models were then evaluated quantitatively and used for spatially explicit predictions within (internal evaluation and prediction) and between (external evaluation and prediction) the two regions. Comparisons of evaluations and spatial predictions between regions and models were conducted in order to test if species and methods meet the criteria of full transferability. By full transferability, we mean that: (1) the internal evaluation of models fitted in region A and B must be similar; (2) a model fitted in region A must at least retain a comparable external evaluation when projected into region B, and vice-versa; and (3) internal and external spatial predictions have to match within both regions. Results The measures of model fit are, on average, 24% higher for GAMs than for GLMs in both regions. However, the differences between internal and external evaluations (AUC coefficient) are also higher for GAMs than for GLMs (a difference of 30% for models fitted in Switzerland and 54% for models fitted in Austria). Transferability, as measured with the AUC evaluation, fails for 68% of the species in Switzerland and 55% in Austria for GLMs (respectively for 67% and 53% of the species for GAMs). For both GAMs and GLMs, the agreement between internal and external predictions is rather weak on average (Kulczynski's coefficient in the range 0.3-0.4), but varies widely among individual species. The dominant pattern is an asymmetrical transferability between the two study regions (a mean decrease of 20% for the AUC coefficient when the models are transferred from Switzerland and 13% when they are transferred from Austria). Main conclusions The large inter-specific variability observed among the 54 study species underlines the need to consider more than a few species to test properly the transferability of species distribution models. The pronounced asymmetry in transferability between the two study regions may be due to peculiarities of these regions, such as differences in the ranges of environmental predictors or the varied impact of land-use history, or to species-specific reasons like differential phenotypic plasticity, existence of ecotypes or varied dependence on biotic interactions that are not properly incorporated into niche-based models. The lower variation between internal and external evaluation of GLMs compared to GAMs further suggests that overfitting may reduce transferability. Overall, a limited geographical transferability calls for caution when projecting niche-based models for assessing the fate of species in future environments.

Modelling ecological niches with support vector machines

1. The ecological niche is a fundamental biological concept. Modelling species' niches is central to numerous ecological applications, including predicting species invasions, identifying reservoirs for disease, nature reserve design and forecasting the effects of anthropogenic and natural climate change on species' ranges. 2. A computational analogue of Hutchinson's ecological niche concept (the multidimensional hyperspace of species' environmental requirements) is the support of the distribution of environments in which the species persist. Recently developed machine-learning algorithms can estimate the support of such high-dimensional distributions. We show how support vector machines can be used to map ecological niches using only observations of species presence to train distribution models for 106 species of woody plants and trees in a montane environment using up to nine environmental covariates. 3. We compared the accuracy of three methods that differ in their approaches to reducing model complexity. We tested models with independent observations of both species presence and species absence. We found that the simplest procedure, which uses all available variables and no pre-processing to reduce correlation, was best overall. Ecological niche models based on support vector machines are theoretically superior to models that rely on simulating pseudo-absence data and are comparable in empirical tests. 4. Synthesis and applications. Accurate species distribution models are crucial for effective environmental planning, management and conservation, and for unravelling the role of the environment in human health and welfare. Models based on distribution estimation rather than classification overcome theoretical and practical obstacles that pervade species distribution modelling. In particular, ecological niche models based on machine-learning algorithms for estimating the support of a statistical distribution provide a promising new approach to identifying species' potential distributions and to project changes in these distributions as a result of climate change, land use and landscape alteration.

MGMT testing-the challenges for biomarker-based glioma treatment.

Many patients with malignant gliomas do not respond to alkylating agent chemotherapy. Alkylator resistance of glioma cells is mainly mediated by the DNA repair enzyme O(6)-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT). Epigenetic silencing of the MGMT gene by promoter methylation in glioma cells compromises this DNA repair mechanism and increases chemosensitivity. MGMT promoter methylation is, therefore, a strong prognostic biomarker in paediatric and adult patients with glioblastoma treated with temozolomide. Notably, elderly patients (>65-70 years) with glioblastoma whose tumours lack MGMT promoter methylation derive minimal benefit from such chemotherapy. Thus, MGMT promoter methylation status has become a frequently requested laboratory test in neuro-oncology. This Review presents current data on the prognostic and predictive relevance of MGMT testing, discusses clinical trials that have used MGMT status to select participants, evaluates known issues concerning the molecular testing procedure, and addresses the necessity for molecular-context-dependent interpretation of MGMT test results. Whether MGMT promoter methylation testing should be offered to all individuals with glioblastoma, or only to elderly patients and those in clinical trials, is also discussed. Justifications for withholding alkylating agent chemotherapy in patients with MGMT-unmethylated glioblastomas outside clinical trials, and the potential role for MGMT testing in other gliomas, are also discussed.

Recombinant human tumor necrosis factor: an efficient agent for cancer treatment.

Recombinant human TNF (rhTNF) has a selective effect on endothelial cells in tumour angiogenic vessels. Its clinical use has been limited because of its property to induce vascular collapsus. TNF administration through isolated limb perfusion (ILP) for regionally advanced melanomas and soft tissue sarcomas of the limbs was shown to be safe and efficient. When combined to the alkylating agent melphalan, a single ILP produces a very high objective response rate. ILP with TNF and melphalan provided the proof of concept that a vasculotoxic strategy combined to chemotherapy may produce a strong anti-tumour effect. The registered indication of TNF-based ILP is a regional therapy for regionally spread tumours. In soft tissue sarcomas, it is a limb sparing neoadjuvant treatment and, in melanoma in-transit metastases, a curative treatment. Despite its demonstrated regional efficiency TNF-based ILP is unlikely to have any impact on survival. High TNF dosages induce endothelial cells apoptosis, leading to vascular destruction. However, lower TNF dosage produces a very strong effect that is to increase the drug penetration into the tumour, presumably by decreasing the intratumoural hypertension resulting in better tumour uptake. TNF-ILP allowed the identification of the role of alphaVbeta3 integrin deactivation as an important mechanism of antiangiogenesis. Several recent studies have shown that TNF targeting is possible, paving the way to a new opportunity to administer TNF systemically for improving cancer drug penetration. TNF was the first agent registered for the treatment of cancer that improves drug penetration in tumours and selectively destroys angiogenic vessels.

Preclinical evaluation of the immunogenicity of C-type HIV-1-based DNA and NYVAC vaccines in the Balb/C mouse model.

As part of a European initiative (EuroVacc), we report the design, construction, and immunogenicity of two HIV-1 vaccine candidates based on a clade C virus strain (CN54) representing the current major epidemic in Asia and parts of Africa. Open reading frames encoding an artificial 160-kDa GagPolNef (GPN) polyprotein and the external glycoprotein gp120 were fully RNA and codon optimized. A DNA vaccine (DNA-GPN and DNA-gp120, referred to as DNA-C), and a replication-deficient vaccinia virus encoding both reading frames (NYVAC-C), were assessed regarding immunogenicity in Balb/C mice. The intramuscular administration of both plasmid DNA constructs, followed by two booster DNA immunizations, induced substantial T-cell responses against both antigens as well as Env-specific antibodies. Whereas low doses of NYVAC-C failed to induce specific CTL or antibodies, high doses generated cellular as well as humoral immune responses, but these did not reach the levels seen following DNA vaccination. The most potent immune responses were detectable using prime:boost protocols, regardless of whether DNA-C or NYVAC-C was used as the priming or boosting agent. These preclinical findings revealed the immunogenic response triggered by DNA-C and its enhancement by combining it with NYVAC-C, thus complementing the macaque preclinical and human phase I clinical studies of EuroVacc.

Environmental data mining and modeling based on machine learning algorithms and geostatistics

The paper presents some contemporary approaches to spatial environmental data analysis. The main topics are concentrated on the decision-oriented problems of environmental spatial data mining and modeling: valorization and representativity of data with the help of exploratory data analysis, spatial predictions, probabilistic and risk mapping, development and application of conditional stochastic simulation models. The innovative part of the paper presents integrated/hybrid model-machine learning (ML) residuals sequential simulations-MLRSS. The models are based on multilayer perceptron and support vector regression ML algorithms used for modeling long-range spatial trends and sequential simulations of the residuals. NIL algorithms deliver non-linear solution for the spatial non-stationary problems, which are difficult for geostatistical approach. Geostatistical tools (variography) are used to characterize performance of ML algorithms, by analyzing quality and quantity of the spatially structured information extracted from data with ML algorithms. Sequential simulations provide efficient assessment of uncertainty and spatial variability. Case study from the Chernobyl fallouts illustrates the performance of the proposed model. It is shown that probability mapping, provided by the combination of ML data driven and geostatistical model based approaches, can be efficiently used in decision-making process. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Owl melanin-based plumage redness is more frequent near than away from the equator: implications on the effect of climate change on biodiversity

Climate change acts as a major new selective agent on many organisms, particularly at high latitudes where climate change is more pronounced than at lower latitudes. Studies are required to predict which species are at a high risk of extinction and whether certain phenotypes may be more affected by climate change than others. The identification of susceptible phenotypes is important for evaluating the potential negative effect of climate change on biodiversity at the inter- and intraspecific levels. Melanin-based coloration is an interesting and easily accessible candidate trait because, within certain species, reddish pheomelanin-based coloration is associated with adaptations to warm climates. However, it is unclear whether the same holds among species. We tested one prediction of this hypothesis in four owl genera (wood, scops, screech, and pygmy owls), namely that darker reddish species are more prevalent near the equator than polewards. Our comparative analysis is consistent with this prediction for the northern hemisphere, suggesting that pale reddish species may be adapted to cold climates and dark reddish species to warmer climates. Thus, climate change may have a larger negative impact on pale pheomelanic owls and favour dark pheomelanic species.

Linking landscape- and population ecology for large population management modelling: the case of Ibex (capra ibex) in Switzerland

La biologie de la conservation est communément associée à la protection de petites populations menacées d?extinction. Pourtant, il peut également être nécessaire de soumettre à gestion des populations surabondantes ou susceptibles d?une trop grande expansion, dans le but de prévenir les effets néfastes de la surpopulation. Du fait des différences tant quantitatives que qualitatives entre protection des petites populations et contrôle des grandes, il est nécessaire de disposer de modèles et de méthodes distinctes. L?objectif de ce travail a été de développer des modèles prédictifs de la dynamique des grandes populations, ainsi que des logiciels permettant de calculer les paramètres de ces modèles et de tester des scénarios de gestion. Le cas du Bouquetin des Alpes (Capra ibex ibex) - en forte expansion en Suisse depuis sa réintroduction au début du XXème siècle - servit d?exemple. Cette tâche fut accomplie en trois étapes : En premier lieu, un modèle de dynamique locale, spécifique au Bouquetin, fut développé : le modèle sous-jacent - structuré en classes d?âge et de sexe - est basé sur une matrice de Leslie à laquelle ont été ajoutées la densité-dépendance, la stochasticité environnementale et la chasse de régulation. Ce modèle fut implémenté dans un logiciel d?aide à la gestion - nommé SIM-Ibex - permettant la maintenance de données de recensements, l?estimation automatisée des paramètres, ainsi que l?ajustement et la simulation de stratégies de régulation. Mais la dynamique d?une population est influencée non seulement par des facteurs démographiques, mais aussi par la dispersion et la colonisation de nouveaux espaces. Il est donc nécessaire de pouvoir modéliser tant la qualité de l?habitat que les obstacles à la dispersion. Une collection de logiciels - nommée Biomapper - fut donc développée. Son module central est basé sur l?Analyse Factorielle de la Niche Ecologique (ENFA) dont le principe est de calculer des facteurs de marginalité et de spécialisation de la niche écologique à partir de prédicteurs environnementaux et de données d?observation de l?espèce. Tous les modules de Biomapper sont liés aux Systèmes d?Information Géographiques (SIG) ; ils couvrent toutes les opérations d?importation des données, préparation des prédicteurs, ENFA et calcul de la carte de qualité d?habitat, validation et traitement des résultats ; un module permet également de cartographier les barrières et les corridors de dispersion. Le domaine d?application de l?ENFA fut exploré par le biais d?une distribution d?espèce virtuelle. La comparaison à une méthode couramment utilisée pour construire des cartes de qualité d?habitat, le Modèle Linéaire Généralisé (GLM), montra qu?elle était particulièrement adaptée pour les espèces cryptiques ou en cours d?expansion. Les informations sur la démographie et le paysage furent finalement fusionnées en un modèle global. Une approche basée sur un automate cellulaire fut choisie, tant pour satisfaire aux contraintes du réalisme de la modélisation du paysage qu?à celles imposées par les grandes populations : la zone d?étude est modélisée par un pavage de cellules hexagonales, chacune caractérisée par des propriétés - une capacité de soutien et six taux d?imperméabilité quantifiant les échanges entre cellules adjacentes - et une variable, la densité de la population. Cette dernière varie en fonction de la reproduction et de la survie locale, ainsi que de la dispersion, sous l?influence de la densité-dépendance et de la stochasticité. Un logiciel - nommé HexaSpace - fut développé pour accomplir deux fonctions : 1° Calibrer l?automate sur la base de modèles de dynamique (par ex. calculés par SIM-Ibex) et d?une carte de qualité d?habitat (par ex. calculée par Biomapper). 2° Faire tourner des simulations. Il permet d?étudier l?expansion d?une espèce envahisseuse dans un paysage complexe composé de zones de qualité diverses et comportant des obstacles à la dispersion. Ce modèle fut appliqué à l?histoire de la réintroduction du Bouquetin dans les Alpes bernoises (Suisse). SIM-Ibex est actuellement utilisé par les gestionnaires de la faune et par les inspecteurs du gouvernement pour préparer et contrôler les plans de tir. Biomapper a été appliqué à plusieurs espèces (tant végétales qu?animales) à travers le Monde. De même, même si HexaSpace fut initialement conçu pour des espèces animales terrestres, il pourrait aisément être étndu à la propagation de plantes ou à la dispersion d?animaux volants. Ces logiciels étant conçus pour, à partir de données brutes, construire un modèle réaliste complexe, et du fait qu?ils sont dotés d?une interface d?utilisation intuitive, ils sont susceptibles de nombreuses applications en biologie de la conservation. En outre, ces approches peuvent également s?appliquer à des questions théoriques dans les domaines de l?écologie des populations et du paysage.<br/><br/>Conservation biology is commonly associated to small and endangered population protection. Nevertheless, large or potentially large populations may also need human management to prevent negative effects of overpopulation. As there are both qualitative and quantitative differences between small population protection and large population controlling, distinct methods and models are needed. The aim of this work was to develop theoretical models to predict large population dynamics, as well as computer tools to assess the parameters of these models and to test management scenarios. The alpine Ibex (Capra ibex ibex) - which experienced a spectacular increase since its reintroduction in Switzerland at the beginning of the 20th century - was used as paradigm species. This task was achieved in three steps: A local population dynamics model was first developed specifically for Ibex: the underlying age- and sex-structured model is based on a Leslie matrix approach with addition of density-dependence, environmental stochasticity and culling. This model was implemented into a management-support software - named SIM-Ibex - allowing census data maintenance, parameter automated assessment and culling strategies tuning and simulating. However population dynamics is driven not only by demographic factors, but also by dispersal and colonisation of new areas. Habitat suitability and obstacles modelling had therefore to be addressed. Thus, a software package - named Biomapper - was developed. Its central module is based on the Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) whose principle is to compute niche marginality and specialisation factors from a set of environmental predictors and species presence data. All Biomapper modules are linked to Geographic Information Systems (GIS); they cover all operations of data importation, predictor preparation, ENFA and habitat suitability map computation, results validation and further processing; a module also allows mapping of dispersal barriers and corridors. ENFA application domain was then explored by means of a simulated species distribution. It was compared to a common habitat suitability assessing method, the Generalised Linear Model (GLM), and was proven better suited for spreading or cryptic species. Demography and landscape informations were finally merged into a global model. To cope with landscape realism and technical constraints of large population modelling, a cellular automaton approach was chosen: the study area is modelled by a lattice of hexagonal cells, each one characterised by a few fixed properties - a carrying capacity and six impermeability rates quantifying exchanges between adjacent cells - and one variable, population density. The later varies according to local reproduction/survival and dispersal dynamics, modified by density-dependence and stochasticity. A software - named HexaSpace - was developed, which achieves two functions: 1° Calibrating the automaton on the base of local population dynamics models (e.g., computed by SIM-Ibex) and a habitat suitability map (e.g. computed by Biomapper). 2° Running simulations. It allows studying the spreading of an invading species across a complex landscape made of variously suitable areas and dispersal barriers. This model was applied to the history of Ibex reintroduction in Bernese Alps (Switzerland). SIM-Ibex is now used by governmental wildlife managers to prepare and verify culling plans. Biomapper has been applied to several species (both plants and animals) all around the World. In the same way, whilst HexaSpace was originally designed for terrestrial animal species, it could be easily extended to model plant propagation or flying animals dispersal. As these softwares were designed to proceed from low-level data to build a complex realistic model and as they benefit from an intuitive user-interface, they may have many conservation applications. Moreover, theoretical questions in the fields of population and landscape ecology might also be addressed by these approaches.

GIS and geodatabases application to global scale plate tectonics modelling

Les reconstructions palinspastiques fournissent le cadre idéal à de nombreuses études géologiques, géographiques, océanographique ou climatiques. En tant qu?historiens de la terre, les "reconstructeurs" essayent d?en déchiffrer le passé. Depuis qu?ils savent que les continents bougent, les géologues essayent de retracer leur évolution à travers les âges. Si l?idée originale de Wegener était révolutionnaire au début du siècle passé, nous savons depuis le début des années « soixante » que les continents ne "dérivent" pas sans but au milieu des océans mais sont inclus dans un sur-ensemble associant croûte « continentale » et « océanique »: les plaques tectoniques. Malheureusement, pour des raisons historiques aussi bien que techniques, cette idée ne reçoit toujours pas l'écho suffisant parmi la communauté des reconstructeurs. Néanmoins, nous sommes intimement convaincus qu?en appliquant certaines méthodes et certains principes il est possible d?échapper à l?approche "Wégenerienne" traditionnelle pour enfin tendre vers la tectonique des plaques. Le but principal du présent travail est d?exposer, avec tous les détails nécessaires, nos outils et méthodes. Partant des données paléomagnétiques et paléogéographiques classiquement utilisées pour les reconstructions, nous avons développé une nouvelle méthodologie replaçant les plaques tectoniques et leur cinématique au coeur du problème. En utilisant des assemblages continentaux (aussi appelés "assemblées clés") comme des points d?ancrage répartis sur toute la durée de notre étude (allant de l?Eocène jusqu?au Cambrien), nous développons des scénarios géodynamiques permettant de passer de l?une à l?autre en allant du passé vers le présent. Entre deux étapes, les plaques lithosphériques sont peu à peu reconstruites en additionnant/ supprimant les matériels océaniques (symbolisés par des isochrones synthétiques) aux continents. Excepté lors des collisions, les plaques sont bougées comme des entités propres et rigides. A travers les âges, les seuls éléments évoluant sont les limites de plaques. Elles sont préservées aux cours du temps et suivent une évolution géodynamique consistante tout en formant toujours un réseau interconnecté à travers l?espace. Cette approche appelée "limites de plaques dynamiques" intègre de multiples facteurs parmi lesquels la flottabilité des plaques, les taux d'accrétions aux rides, les courbes de subsidence, les données stratigraphiques et paléobiogéographiques aussi bien que les évènements tectoniques et magmatiques majeurs. Cette méthode offre ainsi un bon contrôle sur la cinématique des plaques et fournit de sévères contraintes au modèle. Cette approche "multi-source" nécessite une organisation et une gestion des données efficaces. Avant le début de cette étude, les masses de données nécessaires était devenues un obstacle difficilement surmontable. Les SIG (Systèmes d?Information Géographiques) et les géo-databases sont des outils informatiques spécialement dédiés à la gestion, au stockage et à l?analyse des données spatialement référencées et de leurs attributs. Grâce au développement dans ArcGIS de la base de données PaleoDyn nous avons pu convertir cette masse de données discontinues en informations géodynamiques précieuses et facilement accessibles pour la création des reconstructions. Dans le même temps, grâce à des outils spécialement développés, nous avons, tout à la fois, facilité le travail de reconstruction (tâches automatisées) et amélioré le modèle en développant fortement le contrôle cinématique par la création de modèles de vitesses des plaques. Sur la base des 340 terranes nouvellement définis, nous avons ainsi développé un set de 35 reconstructions auxquelles est toujours associé un modèle de vitesse. Grâce à cet ensemble de données unique, nous pouvons maintenant aborder des problématiques majeurs de la géologie moderne telles que l?étude des variations du niveau marin et des changements climatiques. Nous avons commencé par aborder un autre problème majeur (et non définitivement élucidé!) de la tectonique moderne: les mécanismes contrôlant les mouvements des plaques. Nous avons pu observer que, tout au long de l?histoire de la terre, les pôles de rotation des plaques (décrivant les mouvements des plaques à la surface de la terre) tendent à se répartir le long d'une bande allant du Pacifique Nord au Nord de l'Amérique du Sud, l'Atlantique Central, l'Afrique du Nord, l'Asie Centrale jusqu'au Japon. Fondamentalement, cette répartition signifie que les plaques ont tendance à fuir ce plan médian. En l'absence d'un biais méthodologique que nous n'aurions pas identifié, nous avons interprété ce phénomène comme reflétant l'influence séculaire de la Lune sur le mouvement des plaques. La Lune sur le mouvement des plaques. Le domaine océanique est la clé de voute de notre modèle. Nous avons attaché un intérêt tout particulier à le reconstruire avec beaucoup de détails. Dans ce modèle, la croûte océanique est préservée d?une reconstruction à l?autre. Le matériel crustal y est symbolisé sous la forme d?isochrones synthétiques dont nous connaissons les âges. Nous avons également reconstruit les marges (actives ou passives), les rides médio-océaniques et les subductions intra-océaniques. En utilisant ce set de données très détaillé, nous avons pu développer des modèles bathymétriques 3-D unique offrant une précision bien supérieure aux précédents.<br/><br/>Palinspastic reconstructions offer an ideal framework for geological, geographical, oceanographic and climatology studies. As historians of the Earth, "reconstructers" try to decipher the past. Since they know that continents are moving, geologists a trying to retrieve the continents distributions through ages. If Wegener?s view of continent motions was revolutionary at the beginning of the 20th century, we know, since the Early 1960?s that continents are not drifting without goal in the oceanic realm but are included in a larger set including, all at once, the oceanic and the continental crust: the tectonic plates. Unfortunately, mainly due to technical and historical issues, this idea seems not to receive a sufficient echo among our particularly concerned community. However, we are intimately convinced that, by applying specific methods and principles we can escape the traditional "Wegenerian" point of view to, at last, reach real plate tectonics. This is the main aim of this study to defend this point of view by exposing, with all necessary details, our methods and tools. Starting with the paleomagnetic and paleogeographic data classically used in reconstruction studies, we developed a modern methodology placing the plates and their kinematics at the centre of the issue. Using assemblies of continents (referred as "key assemblies") as anchors distributed all along the scope of our study (ranging from Eocene time to Cambrian time) we develop geodynamic scenarios leading from one to the next, from the past to the present. In between, lithospheric plates are progressively reconstructed by adding/removing oceanic material (symbolized by synthetic isochrones) to major continents. Except during collisions, plates are moved as single rigid entities. The only evolving elements are the plate boundaries which are preserved and follow a consistent geodynamical evolution through time and form an interconnected network through space. This "dynamic plate boundaries" approach integrates plate buoyancy factors, oceans spreading rates, subsidence patterns, stratigraphic and paleobiogeographic data, as well as major tectonic and magmatic events. It offers a good control on plate kinematics and provides severe constraints for the model. This multi-sources approach requires an efficient data management. Prior to this study, the critical mass of necessary data became a sorely surmountable obstacle. GIS and geodatabases are modern informatics tools of specifically devoted to store, analyze and manage data and associated attributes spatially referenced on the Earth. By developing the PaleoDyn database in ArcGIS software we converted the mass of scattered data offered by the geological records into valuable geodynamical information easily accessible for reconstructions creation. In the same time, by programming specific tools we, all at once, facilitated the reconstruction work (tasks automation) and enhanced the model (by highly increasing the kinematic control of plate motions thanks to plate velocity models). Based on the 340 terranes properly defined, we developed a revised set of 35 reconstructions associated to their own velocity models. Using this unique dataset we are now able to tackle major issues of the geology (such as the global sea-level variations and climate changes). We started by studying one of the major unsolved issues of the modern plate tectonics: the driving mechanism of plate motions. We observed that, all along the Earth?s history, plates rotation poles (describing plate motions across the Earth?s surface) tend to follow a slight linear distribution along a band going from the Northern Pacific through Northern South-America, Central Atlantic, Northern Africa, Central Asia up to Japan. Basically, it sighifies that plates tend to escape this median plan. In the absence of a non-identified methodological bias, we interpreted it as the potential secular influence ot the Moon on plate motions. The oceanic realms are the cornerstone of our model and we attached a particular interest to reconstruct them with many details. In this model, the oceanic crust is preserved from one reconstruction to the next. The crustal material is symbolised by the synthetic isochrons from which we know the ages. We also reconstruct the margins (active or passive), ridges and intra-oceanic subductions. Using this detailed oceanic dataset, we developed unique 3-D bathymetric models offering a better precision than all the previously existing ones.