279 resultados para adverse selection


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Because the diagnostic tools for predicting whether an early cleavage stage embryo can lead to a viable pregnancy are still elusive, transfer of more than one embryo remains quite common. However, the only way to reduce multiple pregnancies, considered as the main adverse effect of assisted reproductive technology, is to transfer a single embryo. In countries such as Switzerland and Germany, the law allows cryopreservation only at the 2-pronuclear stage. This restricts considerably the possibility of selecting the embryos to be transferred. Therefore, a good cryopreservation program at the 2-pronuclear stage is an essential tool to optimize the efficiency of in vitro fertilization (IVF). We therefore recommend the Cumulated Singleton Delivery Rate (CUSIDERA) as a measure of standard IVF efficiency. This rate averages approximately 23.5% when calculated over the last 10 years in our unit and reaches a value above 35% for patients with more than 10 zygotes. Elective single-embryo transfers and the decrease of iatrogenic multiple pregnancies in IVF remain dependent on better prognostic tools for the appropriate selection of patients, gametes, and zygotes.

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Two endangered tetraonids, the capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) and the hazel grouse (Bonasa bonasia rupestris), are sympatric throughout part of their distribution range in central Europe. Precise information on their specific habitat requirements is needed if the coexistence of both species in exploited forests is to be maintained. We quantified winter habitat selection for both species in the upper part (1100-1600 m) of the Jura mountains (Switzerland). No preference for altitude or exposure could be detected. Capercaillie preferred open forests (including grazed forests) with a sparse canopy dominated by spruce (Picea abies) and fir (Abies alba), and avoided dense undercanopy and understorey, especially when dominated by spruce and beech (Fagus sylvatica). By contrast, hazel grouse preferred feeding sites with a dense understorey of rowan (Sorbus aucuparia), willow (Salix sp.), beech and spruce. These preferences can be related to the feeding habits and predator avoidance behaviour of both species. Coexistence thus requires a mosaic distribution of habitat types, with a matrix of open forests (30% canopy cover) where fir is favoured, and understorey kept sparse (20%). Group-cuts of mature trees should allow regeneration patches, where a dense understorey (50% cover) should provide suitable habitats for hazel grouse

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Despite the widespread use of Cannabis as recreational drug or as medicine, little is known about its toxicity. The accumulation, metabolism and toxicity of THC were analyzed 10 days after a single treatment, and after repeated exposures during 10 days. Mixed-cell aggregate cultures of fetal rat telencephalon were used as in vitro model, as well as aggregates enriched either in neurons or in glial cells. It was found that THC accumulated preferentially in neurons, and that glia-neuron interactions decreased THC accumulation. The quantification of 11-OH-THC and of THC-COOH showed that brain aggregates were capable of THC metabolism. No cell-type difference was found for the metabolite 11-OH-THC, whereas the THC-COOH content was higher in mixed-cell cultures. No cell death was found at THC concentrations of 2 microM in single treatment and of 1 microM and 2 microM in repeated treatments. Neurons, and particularly GABAergic neurons, were most sensitive to THC. Only the GABAergic marker was affected after the single treatment, whereas the GABAergic, cholinergic and astrocytic markers were decreased after the repeated treatments. JWH 015, a CB2 receptor agonist, showed effects similar to THC, whereas ACEA, a CB1 receptor agonist, had no effect. The expression of the cytokine IL-6 was upregulated 48 h after the single treatment with 5 microM of THC or JWH 015, whereas the expression of TNF-alpha remained unchanged. These results suggest that the adverse effects of THC were related either to THC accumulation or to cannabinoid receptor activation and associated with IL-6 upregulation.

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Spatial variation in the pattern of natural selection can promote local adaptation and genetic differentiation between populations. Because heritable melanin-based ornaments can signal resistance to environmentally mediated elevation in glucocorticoids, to oxidative stress and parasites, populations may vary in the mean degree of melanic coloration if selection on these phenotypic aspects varies geographically. Within a population of Swiss barn owls (Tyto alba), the size of eumelanic spots is positively associated with survival, immunity and resistance to stress, but it is yet unknown whether Tyto species that face stressful environments evolved towards a darker eumelanic plumage. Because selection regimes vary along environmental gradients, we examined whether melanin-based traits vary clinally and are expressed to a larger extent in the tropics where parasites are more abundant than in temperate zones. To this end, we considered 39 barn owl species distributed worldwide. Barn owl species living in the tropics displayed larger eumelanic spots than those found in temperate zones. This was, however, verified in the northern hemisphere only. Parasites being particularly abundant in the tropics, they may promote the evolution of darker eumelanic ornaments.

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The specificity of recognition of pMHC complexes by T lymphocytes is determined by the V regions of the TCR alpha- and beta-chains. Recent experimental evidence has suggested that Ag-specific TCR repertoires may exhibit a more V alpha- than V beta-restricted usage. Whether V alpha usage is narrowed during immune responses to Ag or if, on the contrary, restricted V alpha usage is already defined at the early stages of TCR repertoire selection, however, has remained unexplored. Here, we analyzed V and CDR3 TCR regions of single circulating naive T cells specifically detected ex vivo and isolated with HLA-A2/melan-A peptide multimers. Similarly to what was previously observed for melan-A-specific Ag-experienced T cells, we found a relatively wide V beta usage, but a preferential V alpha 2.1 usage. Restricted V alpha 2.1 usage was also found among single CD8(+) A2/melan-A multimer(+) thymocytes, indicating that V alpha-restricted selection takes place in the thymus. V alpha 2.1 usage, however, was independent from functional avidity of Ag recognition. Thus, interaction of the pMHC complex with selected V alpha-chains contributes to set the broad Ag specificity, as underlined by preferential binding of A2/melan-A multimers to V alpha 2.1-bearing TCRs, whereas functional outcomes result from the sum of these with other interactions between pMHC complex and TCR.

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PURPOSE: To evaluate and validate mRNA expression markers capable of identifying patients with ErbB2-positive breast cancer associated with distant metastasis and reduced survival. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Expression of 60 genes involved in breast cancer biology was assessed by quantitative real-time PCR (qrt-PCR) in 317 primary breast cancer patients and correlated with clinical outcome data. Results were validated subsequently using two previously published and publicly available microarray data sets with different patient populations comprising 295 and 286 breast cancer samples, respectively. RESULTS: Of the 60 genes measured by qrt-PCR, urokinase-type plasminogen activator (uPA or PLAU) mRNA expression was the most significant marker associated with distant metastasis-free survival (MFS) by univariate Cox analysis in patients with ErbB2-positive tumors and an independent factor in multivariate analysis. Subsequent validation in two microarray data sets confirmed the prognostic value of uPA in ErbB2-positive tumors by both univariate and multivariate analysis. uPA mRNA expression was not significantly associated with MFS in ErbB2-negative tumors. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed in all three study populations that patients with ErbB2-positive/uPA-positive tumors exhibited significantly reduced MFS (hazard ratios [HR], 4.3; 95% CI, 1.6 to 11.8; HR, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.2 to 6.2; and, HR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.1 to 7.1; all P < .02) as compared with the group with ErbB2-positive/uPA-negative tumors who exhibited similar outcome to those with ErbB2-negative tumors, irrespective of uPA status. CONCLUSION: After evaluation of 898 breast cancer patients, uPA mRNA expression emerged as a powerful prognostic indicator in ErbB2-positive tumors. These results were consistent among three independent study populations assayed by different techniques, including qrt-PCR and two microarray platforms.

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Résumé : Les mécanismes de sélection sexuelle, en particulier la compétition entre mâles (sélection inter-sexuelle) et le choix des femelles (sélection intra-sexuelle), peuvent fortement influencer le succès reproducteur d'un individu, c'est-à-dire son nombre de descendants. On observe ainsi que les mâles dominants et les mâles élaborant des caractères sexuels secondaires marqués ont un succès reproducteur élevé. Toutefois, le succès reproducteur ne suffit pas pour garantir une contribution génétique élevée, parce que la fitness dépend également de la performance des descendants (c'est-à-dire de leur survie et de leur propre succès reproducteur). Si cette performance dépend en partie des gènes paternels, les males ont un avantage certain à signaler leur qualité aux femelles afin d'atteindre des taux de reproduction élevé. Ce mécanisme de signalisation est connu sous le nom de 'good genes hypothesis', toutefois très peu d'études ont clairement démontré le lien entre la qualité génétique des individus et la signalisation. De plus, la performance des descendants peut aussi dépendre des effets génétiques de compatibilité entre mâles et femelles ('compatible genes'). C'est-à-dire que certains allèles paternels n'apporteraient un avantage aux descendants qu'en combinaison avec certains allèles maternels. Nous avons déterminé, durant la période de reproduction, le statut de dominance des mâles pour deux espèces de poissons d'eau douce : la truite (Salmo trotta) et le vairon (Phoxinus phoxinus), puis nous avons évalué la relation entre le succès reproducteur et le statut de dominance et/ou la quantité de signalisation des caractères sexuels secondaires. Nous avons également fécondés artificiellement des oeufs de truites et de corégones (Coregonus palaea), en croisant chaque mâle avec chaque femelle (full-factorial breeding design). Ce type de design autorise la quantification précise des effets génétiques et permet de séparer les effets de 'good genes' et de 'compatible genes'. Cela a été fait sous différentes intensités de stress bactérien, ainsi que dans des conditions naturelles, et nous avons pu ainsi tester si certains indicateurs de qualité génétique des mâles ('good genes') étaient liés a) à la dominance et/ou b) à l'expression des caractères sexuels secondaires des mâles comme l'intensité mélanique ou la taille des tubercules sexuels. En outre, nous cherchons à savoir si la survie des descendants est liée à certaines combinaison des gènes du complexe d'histocompatibilité majeur (MHC) et/ou à la parenté génétique des parents, les deux traits étant soupçonnés d'avoir des influences génétique de compatibilité (`compatible genes') à la performance des descendants. Nous avons constaté que la dominance des mâles est directement liée à la taille et au poids des mâles (truites, vairons), mais également aux caractères sexuels secondaires (tubercules). De plus, les mâles vairons dominant ont eu un succès de fécondation plus élevés que les mâles subordonnés. Nous montrons que les truites et corégones mâles diffèrent dans leur qualité génétique, qui a été mesurée avéc la survie embryonnaire, le temps avant l'éclosion et enfin la croissance juvénile. Contrairement aux prédictions, la dominance (ou les traits indicatifs de dominance) n'était liée à la qualité génétique, dans aucun des traitements, et ne fonctionne donc pas comme indicateur de qualité. Par contre, la qualité génétique était liée aux caractères sexuels secondaires, particulièrement par la teinte mélanique chez les truites. Les embryons de truites issus de pères sombres survivaient mieux que ceux issus de pères clairs dans des environnements difficiles, de plus leur croissance était plus élevée lors de leur première année dans des conditions naturelles. La taille des juvéniles lors de leur première année est un trait important lié au succès dans la compétition pour des ressources telles qu'abri ou nourriture. De plus, les femelles truites peuvent augmenter la survie de leurs descendants en choisissant des mâles selon leur type de MHC ou selon leur degré de parenté. En outre, chez les corégones, la morphologie des tubercules sexuels ne semble pas signaler la qualité génétique. Nous avons également remarqué que l'exposition à des pathogènes non-létaux pouvait influencer la performance des alevins à court et long terme, probablement en affaiblissant leur système immunitaire. Cette thèse montre que les mâles diffèrent dans leur qualité génétique et que différents mécanismes de sélection inter- ou intra-sexuelle (par exemple la préférence pour des mâles sombres, pour des génotypes MHC ou pour des couples avec degré de parenté basse) pouvait avoir un effet positif sur la qualité des descendants, bien que cet effet génétique pouvait changer au cours du temps et entre différents environnements. Contrairement à nos attentes, le résultat de la compétition intra-sexuelle (la hiérarchie de dominance entre mâles) n'était pas lié à la qualité génétique individuelle ('good genes'). Dans ce sens, ce travail permet également de contribuer à l'explication du fait que la sélection sexuelle, de par sa forte sélection directionnelle, ne conduit pas à la diminution de la variance génétique, mais plutôt à la maintenance du polymorphisme génétique. Summary : Sexual selection mechanisms, especially male-male competition (inteasexual selection) and female mate choice (inteasexual selection), can strongly influence individual mating success, often resulting in dominant males and males with elaborate secondary sexual characters having higher fertilisation success. However, siring a high number of offspring alone does not guarantee high individual fitness, as fitness does also strongly depend on offspring performance (i.e. survival, fecundity). If this superiority in offspring performance depends on paternally inherited genes, the fathers are expected to signal this potential indirect benefit to females in order to attain high mating rates. This mechanism is also known as the 'good genes' hypothesis of sexual selection but until now most studies failed to conclusively show the relation of an individual genetic quality and its potential signalling traits. Further, offspring performance could also depend on compatible gene effects. These are alleles that increase offspring performance only in combination with other specific alleles. We first determined male dominance status from intrasexual competition during mating season for brown trout (Salmo trutta) and European minnows (Phoxinus phoxinus). For minnows we additionally checked if dominance and/or secondary sexual traits were linked to fertilisation success. Further, we artificially fertilised brown trout and alpine whitefish (Coregonus palaea) eggs, following full factorial breeding designs, enabling to properly measure `good gene' and `compatible gene' effects on offspring performance. This was done under different intensities of natural stressors, as well as under natural conditions. This procedure allowed us to test if the obtained male genetic quality measures (good genes effects) were indicated by a) dominance or lay traits linked to dominance and/or by b) secondary sexual characteristics such as melanin-based male skin darkness or breeding tubercles. Further, we investigated if offspring survival was linked to the MHC (major histocompatibility complex) gene combinations and/or to the parental genetic relatedness, as both traits were shown to have 'compatible gene' effects that may influence offspring performance. We found that male dominance in intrasexual competition was positively linked to body size, body weight (brown trout, minnows) but also to elaborate secondary sexual characteristics (breeding tubercles in minnows). Further, dominant minnow males did have an increased fertilisation success compared to subordinate ones. We show that brown trout and whitefish males do usually differ in their genetic quality, which was measured as embryo survival, hatching timing and finally as juvenile growth. Contrary to prediction male dominance or dominance indicating traits do not function as a quality signal as they were not linked to genetic quality. This result was constant when measuring genetic quality under different levels of natural stressors and under natural conditions (brown trout). On the other hand genetic quality seemed to be indicated by secondary sexual characteristics, specifically by melanin-based skin darkness in brown trout as brown trout embryos sired by darker fathers had increased survival rates when raised under harsh conditions and. they grew larger as juveniles after one year of growth in a natural stream, which is an important trait influencing success of juveniles in competition for hidings, food and other resources. Furthermore, brown trout females may increase the survival of their embryos when choosing males according to their MHC genotypes or to the general genetic relatedness between themselves and their potential mates. In whitefish on the other hand breeding tubercle morphology did not seem to signal genetic quality. Eventually, we saw that anon-lethal exposure to pathogens might influence short term and long term offspring performance probably by weakening an exposed individual's immune system. This thesis shows that males usually differ in their genetic quality and that different inter- or intrasexual selection mechanisms (e.g. mate selection favouring dark males, preference for MHC genotype combinations or for unrelated mates) may have strong positive effects on genetically dependent offspring performance but that such genetìc effects can change over time and environments. In contrast to our a priori expectations, the outcome of intrasexual selection, namely male dominance hierarchies, with dominant males often having high fertilisation success, was not linked to individual genetic quality (`good genes'). In this sense the present thesis may also be a helpful contribution to understand why sexual selection does not lead to rapid loss of genetic variation by strong directional selection but could even lead to the maintenance of genetic variation in natural populations.

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BACKGROUND: Chronic pain is frequent in persons living with spinal cord injury (SCI). Conventionally, the pain is treated pharmacologically, yet long-term pain medication is often refractory and associated with side effects. Non-pharmacological interventions are frequently advocated, although the benefit and harm profiles of these treatments are not well established, in part because of methodological weaknesses of available studies. OBJECTIVES: To critically appraise and synthesise available research evidence on the effects of non-pharmacological interventions for the treatment of chronic neuropathic and nociceptive pain in people living with SCI. SEARCH METHODS: The search was run on the 1st March 2011. We searched the Cochrane Injuries Group's Specialised Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE (OvidSP), Embase (OvidSP), PsycINFO (OvidSP), four other databases and clinical trials registers. In addition, we manually searched the proceedings of three major scientific conferences on SCI. We updated this search in November 2014 but these results have not yet been incorporated. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials of any intervention not involving intake of medication or other active substances to treat chronic pain in people with SCI. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently extracted data and assessed risk of bias in the included studies. The primary outcome was any measure of pain intensity or pain relief. Secondary outcomes included adverse events, anxiety, depression and quality of life. When possible, meta-analyses were performed to calculate standardised mean differences for each type of intervention. MAIN RESULTS: We identified 16 trials involving a total of 616 participants. Eight different types of interventions were studied. Eight trials investigated the effects of electrical brain stimulation (transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) and cranial electrotherapy stimulation (CES); five trials) or repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS; three trials). Interventions in the remaining studies included exercise programmes (three trials); acupuncture (two trials); self-hypnosis (one trial); transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (TENS) (one trial); and a cognitive behavioural programme (one trial). None of the included trials were considered to have low overall risk of bias. Twelve studies had high overall risk of bias, and in four studies risk of bias was unclear. The overall quality of the included studies was weak. Their validity was impaired by methodological weaknesses such as inappropriate choice of control groups. An additional search in November 2014 identified more recent studies that will be included in an update of this review.For tDCS the pooled mean difference between intervention and control groups in pain scores on an 11-point visual analogue scale (VAS) (0-10) was a reduction of -1.90 units (95% confidence interval (CI) -3.48 to -0.33; P value 0.02) in the short term and of -1.87 (95% CI -3.30 to -0.45; P value 0.01) in the mid term. Exercise programmes led to mean reductions in chronic shoulder pain of -1.9 score points for the Short Form (SF)-36 item for pain experience (95% CI -3.4 to -0.4; P value 0.01) and -2.8 pain VAS units (95% CI -3.77 to -1.83; P value < 0.00001); this represented the largest observed treatment effects in the included studies. Trials using rTMS, CES, acupuncture, self-hypnosis, TENS or a cognitive behavioural programme provided no evidence that these interventions reduce chronic pain. Ten trials examined study endpoints other than pain, including anxiety, depression and quality of life, but available data were too scarce for firm conclusions to be drawn. In four trials no side effects were reported with study interventions. Five trials reported transient mild side effects. Overall, a paucity of evidence was found on any serious or long-lasting side effects of the interventions. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Evidence is insufficient to suggest that non-pharmacological treatments are effective in reducing chronic pain in people living with SCI. The benefits and harms of commonly used non-pharmacological pain treatments should be investigated in randomised controlled trials with adequate sample size and study methodology.

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Rapport de synthèse : Objectifs : évaluer la survie intra-hospitalière des patients présentant un infarctus du myocarde avec sus-décalage du segment ST admis dans les hôpitaux suisses entre 2000 et 2007, et identifier les paramètres prédictifs de mortalité intra-hospitalière et d'événements cardio-vasculaires majeurs (infarctus, réinfarctus, attaque cérébrale). Méthode : utilisation des données du registre national suisse AMIS Plus (Acute Myocardial lnfarction and Unstable Angina in Switzerland). Tous les patients admis pour un infarctus du myocarde avec sus-décalage du segment ST ou bloc de branche gauche nouveau dans un hôpital suisse participant au registre entre janvier 2000 et décembre 2007 ont été inclus. Résultats: nous avons étudié 12 026 patients présentant un infarctus du myocarde avec sus-décalage du segment ST ou bloc de branche gauche nouveau admis dans 54 hôpitaux suisses différents. L'âge moyen est de 64+-13 ans et 73% des patients inclus sont des hommes. L'incidence de mortalité intra-hospitalière est de 7.6% en 2000 et de 6% en 2007. Le taux de réinfarctus diminue de 3.7% en 2000 à 0.9% en 2007. L'utilisation de médicaments thrombolytiques chute de 40.2% à 2% entre 2000 et 2007. Les paramètres prédictifs cliniques de mortalité sont : un âge> 65-ans, une classe Killips Ill ou IV, un diabète et un infarctus du myocarde avec onde Q (au moment de la présentation). Les patients traités par revascularisation coronarienne percutanée ont un taux inférieur de mortalité et de réinfarctus (3.9% versus 11.2% et 1.1% versus 3.1%, respectivement, p<0.001) sur la période de temps étudiée. Le nombre de patients traités par revascularisation coronarienne percutanée augmente de 43% en 2000 à 85% en 2007. Les patients admis dans les hôpitaux bénéficiant d'une salle de cathétérisme cardiaque ont un taux de mortalité plus bas que les patients hopitalisés dans les centres sans salle de cathétérisme cardiaque. Mais les caractéristiques démographiques de ces deux populations sont très différentes. La mortalité intra-hospitalière ainsi que le taux de réinfarctus diminuent significativement au cours y de la période étudiée, parallèlement à l'augmentation de |'utilisation de la revascularisation coronarienne percutanée. La revascularisation coronarienne percutanée est le paramètre prédictif de survie le plus important. Conclusion: la mortalité intra-hospitalière et le taux de réinfarctus du myocarde ont diminué de manière significative chez les patients souffrant d'un infarctus du myocarde avec sus-décalage du segment ST au cours de ces sept dernières années, parallèlement à l'augmentation significative de la revascularisation coronarienne percutanée en plus de la thérapie médicamenteuse. La survie n'est È pas liée au lieu d'hospitalisation mais à l'accès à une revascularisation coronarienne percutanée.

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CONTEXT: Recent data regarding the consequences of untreated human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and the expansion of treatment choices for antiretroviral-naive and antiretroviral-experienced patients warrant an update of the International AIDS Society-USA guidelines for the use of antiretroviral therapy in adults with HIV infection. OBJECTIVES: To provide updated recommendations for management of HIV-infected adults, using antiretroviral drugs and laboratory monitoring tools available in the international, developed-world setting. This report provides guidelines for when to initiate antiretroviral therapy, selection of appropriate initial regimens, patient monitoring, when to change therapy, and what regimens to use when changing. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION: A panel with expertise in HIV research and clinical care reviewed relevant data published or presented at selected scientific conferences since the last panel report through April 2010. Data were identified through a PubMed search, review of scientific conference abstracts, and requests to antiretroviral drug manufacturers for updated clinical trials and adverse event data. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: New evidence was reviewed by the panel. Recommendations were drafted by section writing committees and reviewed and edited by the entire panel. The quality and strength of the evidence were rated and recommendations were made by full panel consensus. CONCLUSIONS: Patient readiness for treatment should be confirmed before initiation of antiretroviral treatment. Therapy is recommended for asymptomatic patients with a CD4 cell count < or = 500/microL, for all symptomatic patients, and those with specific conditions and comorbidities. Therapy should be considered for asymptomatic patients with CD4 cell count > 500/microL. Components of the initial and subsequent regimens must be individualized, particularly in the context of concurrent conditions. Patients receiving antiretroviral treatment should be monitored regularly; treatment failure should be detected and managed early, with the goal of therapy, even in heavily pretreated patients, being HIV-1 RNA suppression below commercially available assay quantification limits.

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The role of drugs in new cancer occurrence and cancer-related death is a major concern. Recently, a meta-analysis raised the possibility that angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) might have an adverse effect on patients. This generated a significant debate until the publication of two further meta-analyses, neither of which demonstrated an increased risk of new cancer occurrence or cancer-related death with the use of ARBs in patients with hypertension, heart failure, and/or nephropathy. This illustrates that the results of meta-analyses should be interpreted cautiously and critically as bias, such as selection bias, might lead to erroneous conclusions. Overall, the bulk of evidence today indicates that ARBs are not associated with increased cancer risk.

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The stable insertion of a copy of their genome into the host cell genome is an essential step of the life cycle of retroviruses. The site of viral DNA integration, mediated by the viral-encoded integrase enzyme, has important consequences for both the virus and the host cell. The analysis of retroviral integration site distribution was facilitated by the availability of the human genome sequence, revealing the non-random feature of integration site selection and identifying different favored and disfavored genomic locations for individual retroviruses. This review will summarize the current knowledge about retroviral differences in their integration site preferences as well as the mechanisms involved in this process.

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BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Management of brain arteriovenous malformation (bAVM) is controversial. We have analyzed the largest surgical bAVM cohort for outcome. METHODS: Both operated and nonoperated cases were included for analysis. A total of 779 patients with bAVMs were consecutively enrolled between 1989 and 2014. Initial management recommendations were recorded before commencement of treatment. Surgical outcome was prospectively recorded and outcomes assigned at the last follow-up visit using modified Rankin Scale. First, a sensitivity analyses was performed to select a subset of the entire cohort for which the results of surgery could be generalized. Second, from this subset, variables were analyzed for risk of deficit or near miss (intraoperative hemorrhage requiring blood transfusion of ≥2.5 L, hemorrhage in resection bed requiring reoperation, and hemorrhage associated with either digital subtraction angiography or embolization). RESULTS: A total of 7.7% of patients with Spetzler-Ponce classes A and B bAVM had an adverse outcome from surgery leading to a modified Rankin Scale >1. Sensitivity analyses that demonstrated outcome results were not subject to selection bias for Spetzler-Ponce classes A and B bAVMs. Risk factors for adverse outcomes from surgery for these bAVMs include size, presence of deep venous drainage, and eloquent location. Preoperative embolization did not affect the risk of perioperative hemorrhage. CONCLUSIONS: Most of the ruptured and unruptured low and middle-grade bAVMs (Spetzler-Ponce A and B) can be surgically treated with a low risk of permanent morbidity and a high likelihood of preventing future hemorrhage. Our results do not apply to Spetzler-Ponce C bAVMs.

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Background Multiple logistic regression is precluded from many practical applications in ecology that aim to predict the geographic distributions of species because it requires absence data, which are rarely available or are unreliable. In order to use multiple logistic regression, many studies have simulated "pseudo-absences" through a number of strategies, but it is unknown how the choice of strategy influences models and their geographic predictions of species. In this paper we evaluate the effect of several prevailing pseudo-absence strategies on the predictions of the geographic distribution of a virtual species whose "true" distribution and relationship to three environmental predictors was predefined. We evaluated the effect of using a) real absences b) pseudo-absences selected randomly from the background and c) two-step approaches: pseudo-absences selected from low suitability areas predicted by either Ecological Niche Factor Analysis: (ENFA) or BIOCLIM. We compared how the choice of pseudo-absence strategy affected model fit, predictive power, and information-theoretic model selection results. Results Models built with true absences had the best predictive power, best discriminatory power, and the "true" model (the one that contained the correct predictors) was supported by the data according to AIC, as expected. Models based on random pseudo-absences had among the lowest fit, but yielded the second highest AUC value (0.97), and the "true" model was also supported by the data. Models based on two-step approaches had intermediate fit, the lowest predictive power, and the "true" model was not supported by the data. Conclusion If ecologists wish to build parsimonious GLM models that will allow them to make robust predictions, a reasonable approach is to use a large number of randomly selected pseudo-absences, and perform model selection based on an information theoretic approach. However, the resulting models can be expected to have limited fit.