Decision curve analysis revisited: overall net benefit, relationships to ROC curve analysis, and application to case-control studies.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Decision curve analysis has been introduced as a method to evaluate prediction models in terms of their clinical consequences if used for a binary classification of subjects into a group who should and into a group who should not be treated. The key concept for this type of evaluation is the "net benefit", a concept borrowed from utility theory. METHODS: We recall the foundations of decision curve analysis and discuss some new aspects. First, we stress the formal distinction between the net benefit for the treated and for the untreated and define the concept of the "overall net benefit". Next, we revisit the important distinction between the concept of accuracy, as typically assessed using the Youden index and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and the concept of utility of a prediction model, as assessed using decision curve analysis. Finally, we provide an explicit implementation of decision curve analysis to be applied in the context of case-control studies. RESULTS: We show that the overall net benefit, which combines the net benefit for the treated and the untreated, is a natural alternative to the benefit achieved by a model, being invariant with respect to the coding of the outcome, and conveying a more comprehensive picture of the situation. Further, within the framework of decision curve analysis, we illustrate the important difference between the accuracy and the utility of a model, demonstrating how poor an accurate model may be in terms of its net benefit. Eventually, we expose that the application of decision curve analysis to case-control studies, where an accurate estimate of the true prevalence of a disease cannot be obtained from the data, is achieved with a few modifications to the original calculation procedure. CONCLUSIONS: We present several interrelated extensions to decision curve analysis that will both facilitate its interpretation and broaden its potential area of application.

Relationships among endogenous ouabain, alpha-adducin polymorphisms and renal sodium handling in primary hypertension.

OBJECTIVE: The basolateral Na pump drives renotubular reabsorption. In cultured renal cells, mutant adducins, as well as sub-nanomolar ouabain concentrations, stimulate the Na-K pump. METHODS: To determine whether these factors interact and affect Na handling and blood pressure (BP) in vivo, we studied 155 untreated hypertensive patients subdivided on the basis of their plasma endogenous ouabain or alpha-adducin genotype (ADD1 Gly460Trp-rs4961). RESULTS: Under basal conditions, proximal tubular reabsorption and plasma Na were higher in patients with mutated Trp ADD1 or increased endogenous ouabain (P = 0.002 and 0.05, respectively). BPs were higher in the high plasma endogenous ouabain group (P = 0.001). Following volume loading, the increment in BP (7.73 vs. 4.81 mmHg) and the slopes of the relationship between BP and Na excretion were greater [0.017 +/- 0.002 vs. 0.009 +/- 0.003 mmHg/(muEq min)] in ADD1 Trp vs. ADD1 Gly carriers (P < 0.05). BP changes were similar, whereas the slopes of the relationship between BP and Na excretion were lower [0.016 +/- 0.003 vs. 0.008 +/- 0.002 mmHg/(muEq min)] in patients with low vs. high endogenous ouabain (P < 0.05). In patients with high endogenous ouabain, volume loading increased the BP in the ADD1 Trp group but not in the Gly group (P < 0.05). Thus, patients with ADD1 Trp alleles are sensitive to salt and tubular Na reabsorption remains elevated after volume expansion. CONCLUSION: With saline loading, BP changes are similar in high and low endogenous ouabain patients, whereas tubular Na reabsorption increases in the high endogenous ouabain group. Saline loading unmasks differences in renal Na handling in patients with mutant adducin or high endogenous ouabain and exposes an interaction of endogenous ouabain and Trp alleles on BP.

Drug concentration response relationships in normal volunteers after oral administration of losartan, an angiotensin II receptor antagonist.

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationships between plasma concentrations of losartan, an orally active angiotensin II inhibitor, its active metabolite EXP3174, and angiotensin II blockade. Six healthy subjects received single oral doses of 40, 80, or 120 mg losartan and placebo at 1-week intervals in a crossover study. Angiotensin II blockade was assessed by the blood pressure response to exogenous angiotensin II before and after losartan administration. EXP3174 reached higher plasma concentrations and was eliminated more slowly than its parent compound; its levels paralleled the profile of angiotensin II blockade closer than losartan. Inhibition of the pressure response was dose dependent. The Hill-shaped relationship between response and EXP3174 concentration (or time-integrated variables) approached a plateau with 80 mg. The dose-dependent increase in plasma renin and angiotensin II exhibited a considerable individual scatter. We conclude that losartan produces a dose-dependent, effective angiotensin II blockade that is largely determined by the active metabolite EXP3174.

Structure function relationships of ENaC and its role in sodium handling.

The epithelial sodium channel (ENaC) in the apical membrane of polarized epithelial cells is the rate-limiting step for Na entry into the cell; in series with the basolateral Na pump, it allows the vectorial transepithelial transport of Na ions. ENaC is expressed in different epithelia like the distal nephron or colon, and the airways epithelium. In the lung ENaC controls the composition and the amount of pulmonary fluid, whereas in the distal nephron ENaC under the control of aldosterone and vasopressin, is essential to adapt the amount of Na+ reabsorbed with the daily sodium intake. Activating mutations of ENaC cause severe disturbances of Na+ homeostasis leading to hypertension in human and in mouse models. Functional expression of ENaC in different cell systems allowed the identification of structural domains of the protein that are essential for channel function and/or modulation of channel activity. Site-directed mutations in specific domains of the channel protein lead to channel hyperactivity or channel loss of function. Knowledge about ENaC structure-function relationships opens new opportunities for development of pharmacological tools for controlling ENaC activity, such as channel activators of potential benefit in the treatment of pulmonary edema, or highly potent ENaC blockers with natriuretic effects.

Qualitative structure-metabolism relationships in the hydrolysis of carbamates.

The aims of this review were 1) to compile a large number of reliable literature data on the metabolic hydrolysis of medicinal carbamates and 2) to extract from such data a qualitative relation between molecular structure and lability to metabolic hydrolysis. The compounds were classified according to the nature of their substituents (R³OCONR&supl;R²), and a metabolic lability score was calculated for each class. A trend emerged, such that the metabolic lability of carbamates decreased (i.e., their metabolic stability increased), in the following series: Aryl-OCO-NHAlkyl >> Alkyl-OCO-NHAlkyl ~ Alkyl-OCO-N(Alkyl)? ? Alkyl-OCO-N(endocyclic) ? Aryl-OCO-N(Alkyl)? ~ Aryl-OCO-N(endocyclic) ? Alkyl-OCO-NHAryl ~ Alkyl-OCO-NHAcyl?>> Alkyl-OCO-NH? > Cyclic carbamates. This trend should prove useful in the design of carbamates as drugs or prodrugs.

Relationships of basal metabolic rate, relative testis size and cycle length of spermatogenesis in shrews (Mammalia, Soricidae).

The aim of the present study was to determinate the cycle length of spermatogenesis in three species of shrew, Suncus murinus, Sorex coronatus and Sorex minutus, and to assess the relative influence of variation in basal metabolic rate (BMR) and mating system (level of sperm competition) on the observed rate of spermatogenesis, including data of shrew species studied before (Sorex araneus, Crocidura russula and Neomys fodiens). The dynamics of sperm production were determined by tracing 5-bromodeoxyuridine in the DNA of germ cells. As a continuous scaling of mating systems is not evident, the level of sperm competition was evaluated by the significantly correlated relative testis size (RTS). The cycle durations estimated by linear regression were 14.3 days (RTS 0.3%) in Suncus murinus, 9.0 days (RTS 0.5%) in Sorex coronatus and 8.5 days (RTS 2.8%) in Sorex minutus. In regression and multiple regression analyses including all six studied species of shrew, cycle length was significantly correlated with BMR (r2=0.73) and RTS (r2=0.77). Sperm competition as an ultimate factor obviously leads to a reduction in the time of spermatogenesis in order to increase sperm production. BMR may act in the same way, independently or as a proximate factor, revealed by the covariation, but other factors (related to testes size and thus to mating system) may also be involved.

Tie Strength and Family Formation : which Personal Relationships are Influential ?

Based on the analysis of qualitative interviews in western Germany, we argue that personal relationships have a strong impact on individuals' family formation processes and fertility intentions. We identify persons who influence individuals' fertility choices. Strong ties, such as those among core family members (i.e., parents and siblings), are an important contributing factor, but we are also able to show that weak ties, such as those among colleagues, and acquaintances need to be considered when examining social influence on family formation processes. Apart from single network partners, we have identified influential groups of persons. Such groups serve as a comparative standard regarding the timing of having one's first child and subsequent children.

Phylogenetic relationships of Apodemus Kaup, 1829 (Rodentia: Muridae) species in the Eastern Mediterranean inferred from mitochondrial DNA, with emphasis on iranian species

Wood mice of the genus Apodemus are widely distributed in Eurasia, with the Eastern Mediterranean being considered as a hotspot. Indeed, numerous species have been documented in Iran, including A. witherbyi, A. hyrcanicus, A. uralensis, A. avicennicus, A. hermonensis, and A. arianus. In this study, 129 specimens were collected from different Iranian localities and two specimens from Afghanistan. The animals were identified taxonomically and their phylogenetic relationships were investigated using cytochrome b mitochondrial DNA sequences. Five species of the genus Apodemus were identified in Iran, including A. hyrcanicus, A. witherbyi, A. cf. ponticus, A. uralensis, and A. mystacinus, beside, A. pallipes from Afghanistan. This study found no evidence of A. flavicollis or A. sylvaticus in Iran, despite their occurrence in Turkey, shedding doubt on the status of A. flavicollis in Iran, Asia Minor, and the Levant. Phylogenetic analyses imply that A. witherbyi has priority over A. avicennicus, A. hermonensis, and A. iconicus. Estimation of the divergence time for these taxa suggests a separation at around 7.2 Ma for the subgenera Karstomys (including A. mystacinus and A. epimelas) and Sylvaemus (including A. flavicollis, A. sylvaticus, A. uralensis, A. pallipes, A. hyrcanicus, A. witherbyi, and A. cf. ponticus). Within the subgenus Karstomys, the divergence times for A. mystacinus and A. epimelas were between 3.0 and 6.1 Ma, and divergence times within the subgenus Sylvaemus were between 5.2 and 6.9 Ma for A. witherbyi and other species in this subgenus. It is postulated that vicariance events including the uplifting of the Zagros Mountains and Anatolian Plateau in the middle Miocene and climate oscillations during the Messinian Salinity Crisis besides formation of the Hyrcanian tertiary forests during the Neogene probably played substantial roles in the radiation and distribution of the genus Apodemus in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Subfamilial and tribal relationships of Ranunculaceae: evidence from eight molecular markers

The first molecular phylogenies of the flowering plant family Ranunculaceae were published more than twenty years ago, and have led to major changes in the infrafamilial classification. However, the current phylogeny is not yet well supported, and relationships among subfamilies and tribes of Ranunculaceae remain an open question. Eight molecular markers from the three genomes (nuclear, chloroplast and mitochondrial) were selected to investigate these relationships, including new markers for the family (two homologs of the nuclear CYCLOIDEA gene, the chloroplast gene ndhF, and the mitochondrial intron nad4-I1). The combination of multiple markers led to better resolution and higher support of phylogenetic relationships among subfamilies of Ranunculaceae, and among tribes within subfamily Ranunculoideae. Our results challenge the monophyly of Ranunculoideae as currently circumscribed due to the position of tribe Adonideae (Ranunculoideae), sister to Thalictroideae. We suggest that Thalictroideae could be merged with Ranunculoideae in an enlarged single subfamily.