Marked increase of the astrocytic marker S100B in the cerebrospinal fluid of HIV-infected patients on LPV/r-monotherapy.

OBJECTIVE: To determine changes of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers of patients on monotherapy with lopinavir/ritonavir. DESIGN: The Monotherapy Switzerland/Thailand study (MOST) trial compared monotherapy with ritonavir-boosted lopinavir with continued therapy. The trial was prematurely stopped due to virological failure in six patients on monotherapy. It, thus, offers a unique opportunity to assess brain markers in the early stage of HIV virological escape. METHODS: : Sixty-five CSF samples (34 on continued therapy and 31 on monotherapy) from 49 HIV-positive patients enrolled in MOST. Using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, we determined the CSF concentration of S100B (astrocytosis), neopterin (inflammation), total Tau (tTau), phosphorylated Tau (pTau), and amyloid-β 1-42 (Aβ), the latter three indicating neuronal damage. Controls were CSF samples of 29 HIV-negative patients with Alzheimer dementia. RESULTS: In the CSF of monotherapy, concentrations of S100B and neopterin were significantly higher than in continued therapy (P = 0.006 and P = 0.013, respectively) and Alzheimer dementia patients (P < 0.0001 and P = 0.0005, respectively). In Alzheimer dementia, concentration of Aβ was lower than in monotherapy (P = 0.005) and continued therapy (P = 0.016) and concentrations of tTau were higher than in monotherapy (P = 0.019) and continued therapy (P = 0.001). There was no difference in pTau among the three groups. After removal of the 16 CSF with detectable viral load in the blood and/or CSF, only S100B remained significantly higher in monotherapy than in the two other groups. CONCLUSION: Despite full viral load-suppression in blood and CSF, antiretroviral monotherapy with lopinavir/ritonavir can raise CSF levels of S100B, suggesting astrocytic damage.

Cross-species and cross-platform gene expression studies with the Bioconductor-compliant R package 'annotationTools'.

Background: The variety of DNA microarray formats and datasets presently available offers an unprecedented opportunity to perform insightful comparisons of heterogeneous data. Cross-species studies, in particular, have the power of identifying conserved, functionally important molecular processes. Validation of discoveries can now often be performed in readily available public data which frequently requires cross-platform studies.Cross-platform and cross-species analyses require matching probes on different microarray formats. This can be achieved using the information in microarray annotations and additional molecular biology databases, such as orthology databases. Although annotations and other biological information are stored using modern database models ( e. g. relational), they are very often distributed and shared as tables in text files, i.e. flat file databases. This common flat database format thus provides a simple and robust solution to flexibly integrate various sources of information and a basis for the combined analysis of heterogeneous gene expression profiles.Results: We provide annotationTools, a Bioconductor-compliant R package to annotate microarray experiments and integrate heterogeneous gene expression profiles using annotation and other molecular biology information available as flat file databases. First, annotationTools contains a specialized set of functions for mining this widely used database format in a systematic manner. It thus offers a straightforward solution for annotating microarray experiments. Second, building on these basic functions and relying on the combination of information from several databases, it provides tools to easily perform cross-species analyses of gene expression data.Here, we present two example applications of annotationTools that are of direct relevance for the analysis of heterogeneous gene expression profiles, namely a cross-platform mapping of probes and a cross-species mapping of orthologous probes using different orthology databases. We also show how to perform an explorative comparison of disease-related transcriptional changes in human patients and in a genetic mouse model.Conclusion: The R package annotationTools provides a simple solution to handle microarray annotation and orthology tables, as well as other flat molecular biology databases. Thereby, it allows easy integration and analysis of heterogeneous microarray experiments across different technological platforms or species.

Do Nasty and Pleasant Surprises Regarding Tax Revenue Explain Spending Drifts ? : The Case of the Swiss Cantons

This article aims to explain the difference between the expenditure reported in governmental end-of-the-year budgets and the amounts previously forecasted in the approved beginning-of-the-year budgets. We measure how political, financial, and institutional variables affect this spending drift. We focus on two much-debated factors, namely, tax revenue budgeting errors and the stringency of fiscal rules. Our econometric approach uses a panel based on the 26 Swiss cantons covering the period of 1980 to 2011. Results suggest that stringent fiscal rules discourage budget overruns, whereas underestimating tax revenue-i.e., a budgetary "pleasant surprise"-offers the opportunity for some overspending.

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by processbased modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws.We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25m resolution.

Savoir s'assurer : économie politique internationale des normes de services et mondialisation du marché de la (ré)assurance

The significance of the insurance industry in the functioning of the world economy is often underestimated, with premiums reaching 7.5 % of world gross domestic product (GDP), three times as much as worldwide military expenses. Insurance services mutualise risks in such a way as they provide a form of private governance that complements or makes up for guarantees otherwise supplied by the State. This case study of international standards developed for the insurance market provides evidence that deviates from conventional accounts considering service standards as heavily dependent of national environments and industry specificities. The chapter examines the relationship between tertiarisation, internationalisation and standardisation of contemporary economies by highlighting the complementarity between institutionalist approaches of the French regulation school and international political economy scholarship shedding light on the polarisation in the possible use of standards, notwithstanding thesectoraland institutional specificities of the activities concerned.

Rules of origin : from analysis to reform

General Introduction This thesis can be divided into two main parts :the first one, corresponding to the first three chapters, studies Rules of Origin (RoOs) in Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs); the second part -the fourth chapter- is concerned with Anti-Dumping (AD) measures. Despite wide-ranging preferential access granted to developing countries by industrial ones under North-South Trade Agreements -whether reciprocal, like the Europe Agreements (EAs) or NAFTA, or not, such as the GSP, AGOA, or EBA-, it has been claimed that the benefits from improved market access keep falling short of the full potential benefits. RoOs are largely regarded as a primary cause of the under-utilization of improved market access of PTAs. RoOs are the rules that determine the eligibility of goods to preferential treatment. Their economic justification is to prevent trade deflection, i.e. to prevent non-preferred exporters from using the tariff preferences. However, they are complex, cost raising and cumbersome, and can be manipulated by organised special interest groups. As a result, RoOs can restrain trade beyond what it is needed to prevent trade deflection and hence restrict market access in a statistically significant and quantitatively large proportion. Part l In order to further our understanding of the effects of RoOs in PTAs, the first chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot, Celine Carrère and Pr. Jaime de Melo, describes and evaluates the RoOs governing EU and US PTAs. It draws on utilization-rate data for Mexican exports to the US in 2001 and on similar data for ACP exports to the EU in 2002. The paper makes two contributions. First, we construct an R-index of restrictiveness of RoOs along the lines first proposed by Estevadeordal (2000) for NAFTA, modifying it and extending it for the EU's single-list (SL). This synthetic R-index is then used to compare Roos under NAFTA and PANEURO. The two main findings of the chapter are as follows. First, it shows, in the case of PANEURO, that the R-index is useful to summarize how countries are differently affected by the same set of RoOs because of their different export baskets to the EU. Second, it is shown that the Rindex is a relatively reliable statistic in the sense that, subject to caveats, after controlling for the extent of tariff preference at the tariff-line level, it accounts for differences in utilization rates at the tariff line level. Finally, together with utilization rates, the index can be used to estimate total compliance costs of RoOs. The second chapter proposes a reform of preferential Roos with the aim of making them more transparent and less discriminatory. Such a reform would make preferential blocs more "cross-compatible" and would therefore facilitate cumulation. It would also contribute to move regionalism toward more openness and hence to make it more compatible with the multilateral trading system. It focuses on NAFTA, one of the most restrictive FTAs (see Estevadeordal and Suominen 2006), and proposes a way forward that is close in spirit to what the EU Commission is considering for the PANEURO system. In a nutshell, the idea is to replace the current array of RoOs by a single instrument- Maximum Foreign Content (MFC). An MFC is a conceptually clear and transparent instrument, like a tariff. Therefore changing all instruments into an MFC would bring improved transparency pretty much like the "tariffication" of NTBs. The methodology for this exercise is as follows: In step 1, I estimate the relationship between utilization rates, tariff preferences and RoOs. In step 2, I retrieve the estimates and invert the relationship to get a simulated MFC that gives, line by line, the same utilization rate as the old array of Roos. In step 3, I calculate the trade-weighted average of the simulated MFC across all lines to get an overall equivalent of the current system and explore the possibility of setting this unique instrument at a uniform rate across lines. This would have two advantages. First, like a uniform tariff, a uniform MFC would make it difficult for lobbies to manipulate the instrument at the margin. This argument is standard in the political-economy literature and has been used time and again in support of reductions in the variance of tariffs (together with standard welfare considerations). Second, uniformity across lines is the only way to eliminate the indirect source of discrimination alluded to earlier. Only if two countries face uniform RoOs and tariff preference will they face uniform incentives irrespective of their initial export structure. The result of this exercise is striking: the average simulated MFC is 25% of good value, a very low (i.e. restrictive) level, confirming Estevadeordal and Suominen's critical assessment of NAFTA's RoOs. Adopting a uniform MFC would imply a relaxation from the benchmark level for sectors like chemicals or textiles & apparel, and a stiffening for wood products, papers and base metals. Overall, however, the changes are not drastic, suggesting perhaps only moderate resistance to change from special interests. The third chapter of the thesis considers whether Europe Agreements of the EU, with the current sets of RoOs, could be the potential model for future EU-centered PTAs. First, I have studied and coded at the six-digit level of the Harmonised System (HS) .both the old RoOs -used before 1997- and the "Single list" Roos -used since 1997. Second, using a Constant Elasticity Transformation function where CEEC exporters smoothly mix sales between the EU and the rest of the world by comparing producer prices on each market, I have estimated the trade effects of the EU RoOs. The estimates suggest that much of the market access conferred by the EAs -outside sensitive sectors- was undone by the cost-raising effects of RoOs. The chapter also contains an analysis of the evolution of the CEECs' trade with the EU from post-communism to accession. Part II The last chapter of the thesis is concerned with anti-dumping, another trade-policy instrument having the effect of reducing market access. In 1995, the Uruguay Round introduced in the Anti-Dumping Agreement (ADA) a mandatory "sunset-review" clause (Article 11.3 ADA) under which anti-dumping measures should be reviewed no later than five years from their imposition and terminated unless there was a serious risk of resumption of injurious dumping. The last chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot and Pr. Jaime de Melo, uses a new database on Anti-Dumping (AD) measures worldwide to assess whether the sunset-review agreement had any effect. The question we address is whether the WTO Agreement succeeded in imposing the discipline of a five-year cycle on AD measures and, ultimately, in curbing their length. Two methods are used; count data analysis and survival analysis. First, using Poisson and Negative Binomial regressions, the count of AD measures' revocations is regressed on (inter alia) the count of "initiations" lagged five years. The analysis yields a coefficient on measures' initiations lagged five years that is larger and more precisely estimated after the agreement than before, suggesting some effect. However the coefficient estimate is nowhere near the value that would give a one-for-one relationship between initiations and revocations after five years. We also find that (i) if the agreement affected EU AD practices, the effect went the wrong way, the five-year cycle being quantitatively weaker after the agreement than before; (ii) the agreement had no visible effect on the United States except for aone-time peak in 2000, suggesting a mopping-up of old cases. Second, the survival analysis of AD measures around the world suggests a shortening of their expected lifetime after the agreement, and this shortening effect (a downward shift in the survival function postagreement) was larger and more significant for measures targeted at WTO members than for those targeted at non-members (for which WTO disciplines do not bind), suggesting that compliance was de jure. A difference-in-differences Cox regression confirms this diagnosis: controlling for the countries imposing the measures, for the investigated countries and for the products' sector, we find a larger increase in the hazard rate of AD measures covered by the Agreement than for other measures.