The role of smoking in changes in the survival curve: an empirical study in 10 European countries.

PURPOSE: We examined the role of smoking in the two dimensions behind the time trends in adult mortality in European countries, that is, rectangularization of the survival curve (mortality compression) and longevity extension (increase in the age-at-death). METHODS: Using data on national sex-specific populations aged 50 years and older from Denmark, Finland, France, West Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, we studied trends in life expectancy, rectangularity, and longevity from 1950 to 2009 for both all-cause and nonsmoking-related mortality and correlated them with trends in lifetime smoking prevalence. RESULTS: For all-cause mortality, rectangularization accelerated around 1980 among men in all the countries studied, and more recently among women in Denmark and the United Kingdom. Trends in lifetime smoking prevalence correlated negatively with both rectangularization and longevity extension, but more negatively with rectangularization. For nonsmoking-related mortality, rectangularization among men did not accelerate around 1980. Among women, the differences between all-cause mortality and nonsmoking-related mortality were small, but larger for rectangularization than for longevity extension. Rectangularization contributed less to the increase in life expectancy than longevity extension, especially for nonsmoking-related mortality among men. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking affects rectangularization more than longevity extension, both among men and women.

Meckel-Gruber Syndrome: a population-based study on prevalence, prenatal diagnosis, clinical features, and survival in Europe.

Meckel-Gruber Syndrome is a rare autosomal recessive lethal ciliopathy characterized by the triad of cystic renal dysplasia, occipital encephalocele and postaxial polydactyly. We present the largest population-based epidemiological study to date using data provided by the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT) network. The study population consisted of 191 cases of MKS identified between January 1990 and December 2011 in 34 European registries. The mean prevalence was 2.6 per 100 000 births in a subset of registries with good ascertainment. The prevalence was stable over time, but regional differences were observed. There were 145 (75.9%) terminations of pregnancy after prenatal diagnosis, 13 (6.8%) fetal deaths, 33 (17.3%) live births. In addition to cystic kidneys (97.7%), encephalocele (83.8%) and polydactyly (87.3%), frequent features include other central nervous system anomalies (51.4%), fibrotic/cystic changes of the liver (65.5% of cases with post mortem examination) and orofacial clefts (31.8%). Various other anomalies were present in 64 (37%) patients. As nowadays most patients are detected very early in pregnancy when liver or kidney changes may not yet be developed or may be difficult to assess, none of the anomalies should be considered obligatory for the diagnosis. Most cases (90.2%) are diagnosed prenatally at 14.3±2.6 (range 11-36) gestational weeks and pregnancies are mainly terminated, reducing the number of LB to one-fifth of the total prevalence rate. Early diagnosis is important for timely counseling of affected couples regarding the option of pregnancy termination and prenatal genetic testing in future pregnancies.

Addition of MR imaging features and genetic biomarkers strengthens glioblastoma survival prediction in TCGA patients.

PURPOSE: The purpose of our study was to assess whether a model combining clinical factors, MR imaging features, and genomics would better predict overall survival of patients with glioblastoma (GBM) than either individual data type. METHODS: The study was conducted leveraging The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) effort supported by the National Institutes of Health. Six neuroradiologists reviewed MRI images from The Cancer Imaging Archive (http://cancerimagingarchive.net) of 102 GBM patients using the VASARI scoring system. The patients' clinical and genetic data were obtained from the TCGA website (http://www.cancergenome.nih.gov/). Patient outcome was measured in terms of overall survival time. The association between different categories of biomarkers and survival was evaluated using Cox analysis. RESULTS: The features that were significantly associated with survival were: (1) clinical factors: chemotherapy; (2) imaging: proportion of tumor contrast enhancement on MRI; and (3) genomics: HRAS copy number variation. The combination of these three biomarkers resulted in an incremental increase in the strength of prediction of survival, with the model that included clinical, imaging, and genetic variables having the highest predictive accuracy (area under the curve 0.679±0.068, Akaike's information criterion 566.7, P<0.001). CONCLUSION: A combination of clinical factors, imaging features, and HRAS copy number variation best predicts survival of patients with GBM.

Drug-eluting stents compared to bare-metal stents improve short-term survival in patients with acute myocardial infarction undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention: a nationwide prospective analysis of the AMIS Plus registry.

BACKGROUND: Recently, it has been suggested that the type of stent used in primary percutaneous coronary interventions (pPCI) might impact upon the outcomes of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Indeed, drug-eluting stents (DES) reduce neointimal hyperplasia compared to bare-metal stents (BMS). Moreover, the later generation DES, due to its biocompatible polymer coatings and stent design, allows for greater deliverability, improved endothelial healing and therefore less restenosis and thrombus generation. However, data on the safety and performance of DES in large cohorts of AMI is still limited. AIM: To compare the early outcome of DES vs. BMS in AMI patients. METHODS: This was a prospective, multicentre analysis containing patients from 64 hospitals in Switzerland with AMI undergoing pPCI between 2005 and 2013. The primary endpoint was in-hospital all-cause death, whereas the secondary endpoint included a composite measure of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) of death, reinfarction, and cerebrovascular event. RESULTS: Of 20,464 patients with a primary diagnosis of AMI and enrolled to the AMIS Plus registry, 15,026 were referred for pPCI and 13,442 received stent implantation. 10,094 patients were implanted with DES and 2,260 with BMS. The overall in-hospital mortality was significantly lower in patients with DES compared to those with BMS implantation (2.6% vs. 7.1%,p < 0.001). The overall in-hospital MACCE after DES was similarly lower compared to BMS (3.5% vs. 7.6%, p < 0.001). After adjusting for all confounding covariables, DES remained an independent predictor for lower in-hospital mortality (OR 0.51,95% CI 0.40-0.67, p < 0.001). Since groups differed as regards to baseline characteristics and pharmacological treatment, we performed a propensity score matching (PSM) to limit potential biases. Even after the PSM, DES implantation remained independently associated with a reduced risk of in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.39-0.76, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In unselected patients from a nationwide, real-world cohort, we found DES, compared to BMS, was associated with lower in-hospital mortality and MACCE. The identification of optimal treatment strategies of patients with AMI needs further randomised evaluation; however, our findings suggest a potential benefit with DES.

Prognostic factors for progression-free and overall survival in advanced biliary tract cancer.

BACKGROUND: Biliary tract cancer is an uncommon cancer with a poor outcome. We assembled data from the National Cancer Research Institute (UK) ABC-02 study and 10 international studies to determine prognostic outcome characteristics for patients with advanced disease. METHODS: Multivariable analyses of the final dataset from the ABC-02 study were carried out. All variables were simultaneously included in a Cox proportional hazards model, and backward elimination was used to produce the final model (using a significance level of 10%), in which the selected variables were associated independently with outcome. This score was validated externally by receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis using the independent international dataset. RESULTS: A total of 410 patients were included from the ABC-02 study and 753 from the international dataset. An overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) Cox model was derived from the ABC-02 study. White blood cells, haemoglobin, disease status, bilirubin, neutrophils, gender, and performance status were considered prognostic for survival (all with P < 0.10). Patients with metastatic disease {hazard ratio (HR) 1.56 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20-2.02]} and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) 2 had worse survival [HR 2.24 (95% CI 1.53-3.28)]. In a dataset restricted to patients who received cisplatin and gemcitabine with ECOG PS 0 and 1, only haemoglobin, disease status, bilirubin, and neutrophils were associated with PFS and OS. ROC analysis suggested the models generated from the ABC-02 study had a limited prognostic value [6-month PFS: area under the curve (AUC) 62% (95% CI 57-68); 1-year OS: AUC 64% (95% CI 58-69)]. CONCLUSION: These data propose a set of prognostic criteria for outcome in advanced biliary tract cancer derived from the ABC-02 study that are validated in an international dataset. Although these findings establish the benchmark for the prognostic evaluation of patients with ABC and confirm the value of longheld clinical observations, the ability of the model to correctly predict prognosis is limited and needs to be improved through identification of additional clinical and molecular markers.