A Bayesian network approach to the database serch problem in criminal proceedings

Background The 'database search problem', that is, the strengthening of a case - in terms of probative value - against an individual who is found as a result of a database search, has been approached during the last two decades with substantial mathematical analyses, accompanied by lively debate and centrally opposing conclusions. This represents a challenging obstacle in teaching but also hinders a balanced and coherent discussion of the topic within the wider scientific and legal community. This paper revisits and tracks the associated mathematical analyses in terms of Bayesian networks. Their derivation and discussion for capturing probabilistic arguments that explain the database search problem are outlined in detail. The resulting Bayesian networks offer a distinct view on the main debated issues, along with further clarity. Methods As a general framework for representing and analyzing formal arguments in probabilistic reasoning about uncertain target propositions (that is, whether or not a given individual is the source of a crime stain), this paper relies on graphical probability models, in particular, Bayesian networks. This graphical probability modeling approach is used to capture, within a single model, a series of key variables, such as the number of individuals in a database, the size of the population of potential crime stain sources, and the rarity of the corresponding analytical characteristics in a relevant population. Results This paper demonstrates the feasibility of deriving Bayesian network structures for analyzing, representing, and tracking the database search problem. The output of the proposed models can be shown to agree with existing but exclusively formulaic approaches. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian networks allow one to capture and analyze the currently most well-supported but reputedly counter-intuitive and difficult solution to the database search problem in a way that goes beyond the traditional, purely formulaic expressions. The method's graphical environment, along with its computational and probabilistic architectures, represents a rich package that offers analysts and discussants with additional modes of interaction, concise representation, and coherent communication.

Thirteen years of surgical site infection surveillance in Swiss hospitals.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance is an essential element of surgical site infection (SSI) prevention. Few studies have evaluated the long-term effect of these programmes. AIM: To present data from a 13-year multicentre SSI surveillance programme from western and southern Switzerland. METHODS: Surveillance with post-discharge follow-up was performed according to the US National Nosocomial Infections Surveillance (NNIS) system methods. SSI rates were calculated for each surveyed type of surgery, overall and by year of participation in the programme. Risk factors for SSI and the effect of surveillance time on SSI rates were analysed by multiple logistic regression. FINDINGS: Overall SSI rates were 18.2% after 7411 colectomies, 6.4% after 6383 appendicectomies, 2.3% after 7411 cholecystectomies, 1.7% after 9933 herniorrhaphies, 1.6% after 6341 hip arthroplasties, and 1.3% after 3667 knee arthroplasties. The frequency of SSI detected after discharge varied between 21% for colectomy and 94% for knee arthroplasty. Independent risk factors for SSI differed between operations. The NNIS risk index was predictive of SSI in gastrointestinal surgery only. Laparoscopic technique was protective overall, but associated with higher rates of organ-space infections after appendicectomy. The duration of participation in the surveillance programme was not associated with a decreased SSI rate for any of the included procedure. CONCLUSION: These data confirm the effect of post-discharge surveillance on SSI rates and the protective effect of laparoscopy. There is a need to establish alternative case-mix adjustment methods. In contrast to other European programmes, no positive impact of surveillance duration on SSI rates was observed.

Parental influences on pathogen resistance in brown trout embryos and effects of outcrossing within a river network.

Phenotypic plasticity can increase tolerance to heterogeneous environments but the elevations and slopes of reaction norms are often population specific. Disruption of locally adapted reaction norms through outcrossing can lower individual viability. Here, we sampled five genetically distinct populations of brown trout (Salmo trutta) from within a river network, crossed them in a full-factorial design, and challenged the embryos with the opportunistic pathogen Pseudomonas fluorescens. By virtue of our design, we were able to disentangle effects of genetic crossing distance from sire and dam effects on early life-history traits. While pathogen infection did not increase mortality, it was associated with delayed hatching of smaller larvae with reduced yolk sac reserves. We found no evidence of a relationship between genetic distance (W, FST) and the expression of early-life history traits. Moreover, hybrids did not differ in phenotypic means or reaction norms in comparison to offspring from within-population crosses. Heritable variation in early life-history traits was found to remain stable across the control and pathogen environments. Our findings show that outcrossing within a rather narrow geographical scale can have neutral effects on F1 hybrid viability at the embryonic stage, i.e. at a stage when environmental and genetic effects on phenotypes are usually large.

Utilité et limites du dosage de l'antigène carcinoembryonnaire (CEA) dans la surveillance postopératoire de malades atteints de carcinomes du côlon et du rectu

An attempt is made to define the usefulness and limitations of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) radioimmunoassay for evaluation of tumor resection and detection of tumor relapse in patients with large-bowel carcinoma. In 45 patients for whom complete tumor resection was reported, all but 5 showed a drop in CEA to normal values after surgery. The 5 patients whose CEA did not fall to below 5 ng/ml showed a subsequent rise in CEA level and later were all found to have a tumor relapse. The results indicate that an incomplete drop in circulating CEA level one month after surgery is a bad prognostic sign. Twenty-two of these patients were followed up by repeated CEA radioimmunoassay for several months after surgery; 8 showed a progressive increase in CEA levels preceding clinical diagnosis of tumor relapse by 2-10 months. The clinical history of these 8 patients is briefly described. The results demonstrate that relapses of colon and rectum carcinoma can be detected by increased CEA levels months before the appearance of any clinical evidence.

A miR-34a-SIRT6 axis in the squamous cell differentiation network.

Squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) are highly heterogeneous tumours, resulting from deranged expression of genes involved in squamous cell differentiation. Here we report that microRNA-34a (miR-34a) functions as a novel node in the squamous cell differentiation network, with SIRT6 as a critical target. miR-34a expression increases with keratinocyte differentiation, while it is suppressed in skin and oral SCCs, SCC cell lines, and aberrantly differentiating primary human keratinocytes (HKCs). Expression of this miRNA is restored in SCC cells, in parallel with differentiation, by reversion of genomic DNA methylation or wild-type p53 expression. In normal HKCs, the pro-differentiation effects of increased p53 activity or UVB exposure are miR-34a-dependent, and increased miR-34a levels are sufficient to induce differentiation of these cells both in vitro and in vivo. SIRT6, a sirtuin family member not previously connected with miR-34a function, is a direct target of this miRNA in HKCs, and SIRT6 down-modulation is sufficient to reproduce the miR-34a pro-differentiation effects. The findings are of likely biological significance, as SIRT6 is oppositely expressed to miR-34a in normal keratinocytes and keratinocyte-derived tumours.

Surveillance épidémiologique: une responsabilité du médecin de famille [Epidemiological surveillance: family doctors' responsibility].

Epidemiological surveillance systems are essential and require efficient collaborations between family doctors and public health services. Such a system has to take into account the increase in the number of health problems to be studied. Information gathered at an individual level should imply decisions at a population level which in turn should impact on the individual patient. Epidemiological surveillance requires a well organized, representative and constantly revised system led by motivated, adequately trained doctors.

Inference about the number of contributors to a DNA mixture: Comparative analyses of a Bayesian network approach and the maximum allele count method.

In the forensic examination of DNA mixtures, the question of how to set the total number of contributors (N) presents a topic of ongoing interest. Part of the discussion gravitates around issues of bias, in particular when assessments of the number of contributors are not made prior to considering the genotypic configuration of potential donors. Further complication may stem from the observation that, in some cases, there may be numbers of contributors that are incompatible with the set of alleles seen in the profile of a mixed crime stain, given the genotype of a potential contributor. In such situations, procedures that take a single and fixed number contributors as their output can lead to inferential impasses. Assessing the number of contributors within a probabilistic framework can help avoiding such complication. Using elements of decision theory, this paper analyses two strategies for inference on the number of contributors. One procedure is deterministic and focuses on the minimum number of contributors required to 'explain' an observed set of alleles. The other procedure is probabilistic using Bayes' theorem and provides a probability distribution for a set of numbers of contributors, based on the set of observed alleles as well as their respective rates of occurrence. The discussion concentrates on mixed stains of varying quality (i.e., different numbers of loci for which genotyping information is available). A so-called qualitative interpretation is pursued since quantitative information such as peak area and height data are not taken into account. The competing procedures are compared using a standard scoring rule that penalizes the degree of divergence between a given agreed value for N, that is the number of contributors, and the actual value taken by N. Using only modest assumptions and a discussion with reference to a casework example, this paper reports on analyses using simulation techniques and graphical models (i.e., Bayesian networks) to point out that setting the number of contributors to a mixed crime stain in probabilistic terms is, for the conditions assumed in this study, preferable to a decision policy that uses categoric assumptions about N.

Additive functions in boolean models of gene regulatory network modules.

Gene-on-gene regulations are key components of every living organism. Dynamical abstract models of genetic regulatory networks help explain the genome's evolvability and robustness. These properties can be attributed to the structural topology of the graph formed by genes, as vertices, and regulatory interactions, as edges. Moreover, the actual gene interaction of each gene is believed to play a key role in the stability of the structure. With advances in biology, some effort was deployed to develop update functions in Boolean models that include recent knowledge. We combine real-life gene interaction networks with novel update functions in a Boolean model. We use two sub-networks of biological organisms, the yeast cell-cycle and the mouse embryonic stem cell, as topological support for our system. On these structures, we substitute the original random update functions by a novel threshold-based dynamic function in which the promoting and repressing effect of each interaction is considered. We use a third real-life regulatory network, along with its inferred Boolean update functions to validate the proposed update function. Results of this validation hint to increased biological plausibility of the threshold-based function. To investigate the dynamical behavior of this new model, we visualized the phase transition between order and chaos into the critical regime using Derrida plots. We complement the qualitative nature of Derrida plots with an alternative measure, the criticality distance, that also allows to discriminate between regimes in a quantitative way. Simulation on both real-life genetic regulatory networks show that there exists a set of parameters that allows the systems to operate in the critical region. This new model includes experimentally derived biological information and recent discoveries, which makes it potentially useful to guide experimental research. The update function confers additional realism to the model, while reducing the complexity and solution space, thus making it easier to investigate.

A neuron-glia signalling network in the active brain.

Glial cells are active partners of neurons in processing information and synaptic integration. They receive coded signals from synapses and elaborate modulatory responses. The active properties of glia, including long-range signalling and regulated transmitter release, are beginning to be elucidated. Recent insights suggest that the active brain should no longer be regarded as a circuitry of neuronal contacts, but as an integrated network of interactive neurons and glia.

Comment faire de la surveillance sanitaire ? L'exemple de l'Observatoire valaisan de la santé en Suisse

Objectif : décrire les buts et les méthodes de la surveillance sanitaire contemporaine et présenter les activités de l'Observatoire valaisan de la santé (OVS), un outil unique en Suisse de surveillance sanitaire pour la population d'un canton. Méthodes : revue narrative et présentation des activités de l'OVS. Résultats : la surveillance sanitaire est la récolte, l'analyse, l'interprétation et la dissémination continues et systématiques de données sanitaires essentielles à la planification en santé publique. Elle s'organise en tenant compte des enjeux contemporains de santé publique. La Suisse est dans une ère de prépondérance des affections chroniques à cause du vieillissement de la population. Cette ère de la « nouvelle santé publique » est aussi caractérisée par l'importance grandissante des technologies médicales, de la gestion rationnelle des risques, de la médecine préventive et de la promotion de la santé et du rôle central du citoyen/patient. Les technologies de l'information donnent accès à de nouvelles données sanitaires mais nécessitent d'adapter les méthodes de surveillance. En Suisse, la surveillance sanitaire est morcelée car elle est conduite par des acteurs fédéraux, cantonaux, publics et privés. Le canton du Valais dispose de l'OVS, un outil de surveillance intégratif, régional et réactif. Conclusion : la surveillance sanitaire produit de l'information permettant la décision et l'action dans le domaine de la santé. C'est un élément-clé de la planification sanitaire.

Usefulness of double locus sequence typing (DLST) for regional and international epidemiological surveillance of methicilin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus.

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a major cause of nosocomial infections worldwide. To differentiate reliably among S. aureus isolates, we recently developed double locus sequence typing (DLST) based on the analysis of partial sequences of clfB and spa genes. In the present study, we evaluated the usefulness of DLST for epidemiological investigations of MRSA by routinely typing 1242 strains isolated in Western Switzerland. Additionally, particular local and international collections were typed by pulsed field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and DLST to check the compatibility of DLST with the results obtained by PFGE, and for international comparisons. Using DLST, we identified the major MRSA clones of Western Switzerland, and demonstrated the close relationship between local and international clones. The congruence of 88% between the major PFGE and DLST clones indicated that our results obtained by DLST were compatible with earlier results obtained by PFGE. DLST could thus easily be incorporated in a routine surveillance procedure. In addition, the unambiguous definition of DLST types makes this method more suitable than PFGE for long-term epidemiological surveillance. Finally, the comparison of the results obtained by DLST, multilocus sequence typing, PFGE, Staphylococcal cassette chromosome mec typing and the detection of Panton-Valentine leukocidin genes indicated that no typing scheme should be used on its own. It is only the combination of data from different methods that gives the best chance of describing precisely the epidemiology and phylogeny of MRSA.

Outcome and Prognostic Factors in Adenosquamous Carcinoma of the Head and Neck - a Multicenter Rare Cancer Network Study

Background: Adenosquamous carcinoma (AC) of the head and neck is a distinct entity first described in 1968. Its natural history is more aggressive than squamous-cell carcinoma. The aim of this study was to assess the clinical profile, patterns of failure, and prognostic factors in patients with AC of the head and neck treated by radiation therapy (RT) with or without chemotherapy (CT).Materials and Methods: Data from 19 patients with stage I (n = 3), II (n = 1), III (n = 4), or IVa (n = 11) AC, treated between 1989 and 2009, were collected in a retrospective multicenter Rare Cancer Network study. Median age was 60 years (range, 48−73). Fifteen patients were male, and 4 female. Risk factors, including perineural invasion, lymphangitis, vascular invasion, positive margins were present in the majority (83%) of the patients. Tumour sites included oral cavity in 4, oropharynx in 4, hypopharynx in 2, larynx in 2, salivary glands in 2, nasal vestibule in 2, maxillary sinus in 2, and nasopharynx in 1 patient. Surgery (S) was performed in all but 5 patients. S alone was performed in only 1 patient, and definitive RT alone in 3 patients. Fifteen patients received combined modality treatment (S+RT in 11, RT+CT in 2, and all of the three modalities in 2 patients). Median RT dose to the primary and to the nodes was 66 Gy (range, 50−72) and 53 Gy (range, 44−66), respectively (1.8−2.0 Gy/fr., 5 fr./week). In 4 patients, the planning treatment volume included the primary tumour site only. Eight patients were treated with 2D RT, 7 with 3D conformal RT, and 2 with intensity-modulated RT.Results: After a median follow-up period of 39 months (range, 9−62), 9 patients developed distant metastases (lung, bone, mediastinum, and liver), 7 presented nodal recurrences, and only 4 had a local relapse at the primary site (all in-field recurrences). At last follow-up, 7 patients were alive without disease, 1 alive with disease, 9 died from progressive disease, and 2 died from intercurrent disease. The 3-year and median overall survival, disease-free survival (DFS), and locoregional control rates were 55% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 32−78%) and 39 months, 34% (95% CI: 12−56%) and 22 months, and 50% (95% CI: 22−78%) and 33 months, respectively. In multivariate analysis (Cox model), DFS was negatively influenced by the presence of extracapsular extension (p = 0.01) and advanced stage (IV versus I−III, p = 0.002).Conclusions: Overall prognosis of locoregionally advanced AC remains poor, and distant metastases and nodal relapse occur in almost half of the cases. However, local control is relatively better, and early stage AC patients had prolonged DFS when treated with combined-modality treatment.