Unfolding nature "in silico" : overcoming practical and metodological limitations of species distribution models

Abstract : The existence of a causal relationship between the spatial distribution of living organisms and their environment, in particular climate, has been long recognized and is the central principle of biogeography. In turn, this recognition has led scientists to the idea of using the climatic, topographic, edaphic and biotic characteristics of the environment to predict its potential suitability for a given species or biological community. In this thesis, my objective is to contribute to the development of methodological improvements in the field of species distribution modeling. More precisely, the objectives are to propose solutions to overcome limitations of species distribution models when applied to conservation biology issues, or when .used as an assessment tool of the potential impacts of global change. The first objective of my thesis is to contribute to evidence the potential of species distribution models for conservation-related applications. I present a methodology to generate pseudo-absences in order to overcome the frequent lack of reliable absence data. I also demonstrate, both theoretically (simulation-based) and practically (field-based), how species distribution models can be successfully used to model and sample rare species. Overall, the results of this first part of the thesis demonstrate the strong potential of species distribution models as a tool for practical applications in conservation biology. The second objective this thesis is to contribute to improve .projections of potential climate change impacts on species distributions, and in particular for mountain flora. I develop and a dynamic model, MIGCLIM, that allows the implementation of dispersal limitations into classic species distribution models and present an application of this model to two virtual species. Given that accounting for dispersal limitations requires information on seed dispersal, distances, a general methodology to classify species into broad dispersal types is also developed. Finally, the M~GCLIM model is applied to a large number of species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps. Overall, the results indicate that while dispersal limitations can have an important impact on the outcome of future projections of species distributions under climate change scenarios, estimating species threat levels (e.g. species extinction rates) for a mountainous areas of limited size (i.e. regional scale) can also be successfully achieved when considering dispersal as unlimited (i.e. ignoring dispersal limitations, which is easier from a practical point of view). Finally, I present the largest fine scale assessment of potential climate change impacts on mountain vegetation that has been carried-out to date. This assessment involves vegetation from 12 study areas distributed across all major western and central European mountain ranges. The results highlight that some mountain ranges (the Pyrenees and the Austrian Alps) are expected to be more affected by climate change than others (Norway and the Scottish Highlands). The results I obtain in this study also indicate that the threat levels projected by fine scale models are less severe than those derived from coarse scale models. This result suggests that some species could persist in small refugias that are not detected by coarse scale models. Résumé : L'existence d'une relation causale entre la répartition des espèces animales et végétales et leur environnement, en particulier le climat, a été mis en évidence depuis longtemps et est un des principes centraux en biogéographie. Ce lien a naturellement conduit à l'idée d'utiliser les caractéristiques climatiques, topographiques, édaphiques et biotiques de l'environnement afin d'en prédire la qualité pour une espèce ou une communauté. Dans ce travail de thèse, mon objectif est de contribuer au développement d'améliorations méthodologiques dans le domaine de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces dans le paysage. Plus précisément, les objectifs sont de proposer des solutions afin de surmonter certaines limitations des modèles de distribution d'espèces dans des applications pratiques de biologie de la conservation ou dans leur utilisation pour évaluer l'impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur l'environnement. Le premier objectif majeur de mon travail est de contribuer à démontrer le potentiel des modèles de distribution d'espèces pour des applications pratiques en biologie de la conservation. Je propose une méthode pour générer des pseudo-absences qui permet de surmonter le problème récurent du manque de données d'absences fiables. Je démontre aussi, de manière théorique (par simulation) et pratique (par échantillonnage de terrain), comment les modèles de distribution d'espèces peuvent être utilisés pour modéliser et améliorer l'échantillonnage des espèces rares. Ces résultats démontrent le potentiel des modèles de distribution d'espèces comme outils pour des applications de biologie de la conservation. Le deuxième objectif majeur de ce travail est de contribuer à améliorer les projections d'impacts potentiels des changements climatiques sur la flore, en particulier dans les zones de montagnes. Je développe un modèle dynamique de distribution appelé MigClim qui permet de tenir compte des limitations de dispersion dans les projections futures de distribution potentielle d'espèces, et teste son application sur deux espèces virtuelles. Vu que le fait de prendre en compte les limitations dues à la dispersion demande des données supplémentaires importantes (p.ex. la distance de dispersion des graines), ce travail propose aussi une méthode de classification simplifiée des espèces végétales dans de grands "types de disperseurs", ce qui permet ainsi de d'obtenir de bonnes approximations de distances de dispersions pour un grand nombre d'espèces. Finalement, j'applique aussi le modèle MIGCLIM à un grand nombre d'espèces de plantes dans une zone d'études des pré-Alpes vaudoises. Les résultats montrent que les limitations de dispersion peuvent avoir un impact considérable sur la distribution potentielle d'espèces prédites sous des scénarios de changements climatiques. Cependant, quand les modèles sont utilisés pour évaluer les taux d'extinction d'espèces dans des zones de montages de taille limitée (évaluation régionale), il est aussi possible d'obtenir de bonnes approximations en considérant la dispersion des espèces comme illimitée, ce qui est nettement plus simple d'un point dé vue pratique. Pour terminer je présente la plus grande évaluation à fine échelle d'impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur la flore des montagnes conduite à ce jour. Cette évaluation englobe 12 zones d'études réparties sur toutes les chaines de montages principales d'Europe occidentale et centrale. Les résultats montrent que certaines chaines de montagnes (les Pyrénées et les Alpes Autrichiennes) sont projetées comme plus sensibles aux changements climatiques que d'autres (les Alpes Scandinaves et les Highlands d'Ecosse). Les résultats obtenus montrent aussi que les modèles à échelle fine projettent des impacts de changement climatiques (p. ex. taux d'extinction d'espèces) moins sévères que les modèles à échelle large. Cela laisse supposer que les modèles a échelle fine sont capables de modéliser des micro-niches climatiques non-détectées par les modèles à échelle large.

A High-Resolution 2D/3D Seismic Study of a Thrust Fault Zone in Lake Geneva, Switzerland

P130 A HIGH-RESOLUTION 2D/3D SEISMIC STUDY OF A THRUST FAULT ZONE IN LAKE GENEVA SWITZERLAND M. SCHEIDHAUER M. BERES D. DUPUY and F. MARILLIER Institute of Geophysics University of Lausanne 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland Summary A high-resolution three-dimensional (3D) seismic reflection survey has been conducted in Lake Geneva near the city of Lausanne Switzerland where the faulted molasse basement (Tertiary sandstones) is overlain by complex Quaternary sedimentary structures. Using a single 48-channel streamer an area of 1200 m x 600 m was surveyed in 10 days. With a 5-m shot spacing and a receiver spacing of 2.5 m in the inline direction and 7.5 m in the crossline direction, a 12-fold data coverage was achieved. A maximum penetration depth of ~150 m was achieved with a 15 cu. in. water gun operated at 140 bars. The multi-channel data allow the determination of an accurate velocity field for 3D processing, and they show particularly clean images of the fault zone and the overlying sediments in horizontal and vertical sections. In order to compare different sources, inline 55 was repeated with a 30/30 and a 15/15 cu. in. double-chamber air gun (Mini GI) operated at 100 and 80 bars, respectively. A maximum penetration depth of ~450 m was achieved with this source.

Reproducibility of acute mountain sickness in children and adults: a prospective study.

OBJECTIVE: Although a history of previous acute mountain sickness (AMS) is commonly used for providing advice and recommending its prophylaxis during subsequent exposure, the intraindividual reproducibility of AMS during repeated high-altitude exposure has never been examined in a prospective controlled study.METHODS: In 27 nonacclimatized children and 29 adults, AMS was assessed during the first 48 hours after rapid ascent to 3450 m on 2 consecutive occasions 9 to 12 months apart.RESULTS: During the first exposure, 18 adults (62%) and 6 children (22%) suffered from AMS; during the second exposure, 14 adults (48%) and 4 children (15%) suffered from this problem (adults versus children, P <= .01). Most importantly, the intraindividual reproducibility of AMS was very different (P < .001) between children and adults. None of the 6 children having suffered from AMS during the first exposure suffered from AMS during the second exposure, but 4 children with no AMS during the first exposure did experience this problem during the second exposure. In contrast, 14 of the 18 adults who suffered from AMS on the first occasion also presented with this problem during the second exposure, and no new case developed in those who had not experienced AMS on the first occasion.CONCLUSIONS: In adults, a history of AMS is highly predictable of the disease on subsequent exposure, whereas in children it has no predictive value. A history of AMS should not prompt practitioners to advise against reexposure to high altitude or to prescribe drugs for its prophylaxis in children. Pediatrics 2011;127:e1445-e1448

Exaggerated exercise-induced pulmonary hypertension causes lung water accumulation and right ventricular dysfunction in patients with chronic mountain sickness

Background: Chronic mountain sickness (CMS) is characterized by exaggerated exercise-induced pulmonary hypertension. Evidences suggests that exercise may cause lung fluid accumulation at high altitude. We hypothesized that, in patients with CMS, exercise causes lung fluid accumulation.Methods: In 21 male CMS patients and 20 matched healthy controls born and permanently living in La Paz (Bolivia, 3600m) we assessed with echocardiogram, pulmonary artery pressure (PASP), right and left ventricular function and ultrasoundlung comets (ULCs, a marker of lung fluid accumulation) at rest and during mild bicycle exercise (10 min at 50W).Results: CMS patients presented a more than 2-fold greater exercise-induced increase in pulmonary artery pressure than controls (17.1±8.3 vs 7.2±7.9 mmHg, P=0.003). This exaggerated PASP response to exercise was associated with a roughly 3-fold greater increase in UCLs in patients with CMS than in controls (6.3±5.1 vs. 2.1±5.3, p<0.05), and there existed a significant relationship between PASP and UCLs (r=0.44, p<0.001). Finally, TDI on lateral tricuspid annulus decreased during exercise in patients with CMS (from 13.2±3.2 to 11.5±2.1 cm s-1, p=0.03), but increased in controls (from 13.1±2.9 to 14.9±2.6 cm s-1 , p=0.04). Left ventricular function remained unaltered in the 2 groups.Conclusions: we provide the first direct evidence in CMS patients that exaggerated exercise-induced pulmonary hypertension causes rapid lung fluid accumulation and right ventricular dysfunction. We speculate that in patients with CMS these two phenomena contribute to reduced exercise performances and Figure 1 increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality that characterise these subjects.

Impact of free-range pigs on mountain pastures in the Swiss Jura

The consequences of foraging by free-range pigs on the vegetation of mountain pastures was investigated. 25 pigs (15 week-old, mean weight 50 kg) were enclosed from June to mid-September in a 2 ha-enclosure in Jura Mountains (Switzerland), fed with a mixture of lactoserum and cereals. The enclosure contained five different plant communities. Eutrophic pastures on deep soil were strongly overturned, but the recolonisation was quick and dominated by the original species. Mesotrophic pastures were less damaged on stony soil but completely destroyed on deep soil, and the recovery was slow, characterised by a shift of plant species in a more eutrophic direction. Four years were not sufficient for complete recovery. Oligotrophic calcareous pastures on shallow stony soil were not damaged. Extensive breeding of pigs in mountain pastures might be harmful to plant species and vegetation, and ought to be restricted to the less sensitive plant communities, with a rotation on two to three different sites.

Plant species richness and environmental heterogeneity in a mountain landscape: effects of variability and spatial configuration

The loss of biodiversity has become a matter of urgent concern and a better understanding of local drivers is crucial for conservation. Although environmental heterogeneity is recognized as an important determinant of biodiversity, this has rarely been tested using field data at management scale. We propose and provide evidence for the simple hypothesis that local species diversity is related to spatial environmental heterogeneity. Species partition the environment into habitats. Biodiversity is therefore expected to be influenced by two aspects of spatial heterogeneity: 1) the variability of environmental conditions, which will affect the number of types of habitat, and 2) the spatial configuration of habitats, which will affect the rates of ecological processes, such as dispersal or competition. Earlier, simulation experiments predicted that both aspects of heterogeneity will influence plant species richness at a particular site. For the first time, these predictions were tested for plant communities using field data, which we collected in a wooded pasture in the Swiss Jura mountains using a four-level hierarchical sampling design. Richness generally increased with increasing environmental variability and "roughness" (i.e. decreasing spatial aggregation). Effects occurred at all scales, but the nature of the effect changed with scale, suggesting a change in the underlying mechanisms, which will need to be taken into account if scaling up to larger landscapes. Although we found significant effects of environmental heterogeneity, other factors such as history could also be important determinants. If a relationship between environmental heterogeneity and species richness can be shown to be general, recently available high-resolution environmental data can be used to complement the assessment of patterns of local richness and improve the prediction of the effects of land use change based on mean site conditions or land use history.

The sandstone-hosted Beverley uranium Deposit, Lake Frome Basin, South Australia: Mineralogy, geochemistry, and a time-constrained model for its genesis

The sandstone-hosted Beverley uranium deposit is located in terrestrial sediments in the Lake Frome basin in the North Flinders Ranges, South Australia. The deposit is 13 km from the U-rich Mesoproterozoic basement of the Mount Painter inlier, which is being uplifted 100 to 200 m above the basin by neotectonic activity that probably initiated in the early Pliocene. The mineralization was deposited mainly in organic matter-poor Miocene lacustrine sands and partly in the underlying reductive strata comprising organic matter-rich clays and silts. The bulk of the mineralization consists of coffinite and/or uraninite nodules, growing around Co-rich pyrite with an S isotope composition (delta S-34 = 1.0 +/- 0.3 parts per thousand), suggestive of an early diagenetic lacustrine origin. In contrast, authigenic sulfides in the bulk of the sediments have a negative S isotope signature (delta S-34 ranges from -26.2 to -35.5 parts per thousand), indicative of an origin via bacterially mediated sulfate reduction. Minor amounts of Zn-bearing native copper and native lead also support the presence of specific, reducing microenvironments in the ore zone. Small amounts of carnotite are associated with the coffinite ore and also occur beneath a paleosoil horizon overlying the uranium deposit. Provenance studies suggest that the host Miocene sediments were derived from the reworking of Early Cretaceous glacial or glaciolacustrine sediments ultimately derived from Paleozoic terranes in eastern Australia. In contrast, the overlying Pliocene strata were in part derived from the Mesoproterozoic basement inlier. Mass-balance and geochemical data confirm that granites of the Mount Painter domain were the ultimate source of U and BEE at Beverley. U-Pb dating of coffinite and carnotite suggest that the U mineralization is Pliocene (6.7-3.4 Ma). The suitability of the Beverley deposit for efficient mining via in situ leaching, and hence its economic value, are determined by the nature of the hosting sand unit, which provides the permeability and low reactivity required for high fluid flow and low chemical consumption. These favorable sedimentologic and geometrical features result from a complex conjunction of factors, including deposition in lacustrine shore environment, reworking of angular sands of glacial origin, deep Pliocene weathering, and proximity to an active fault exposing extremely U rich rocks.

Exaggerated pulmonary hypertension during mild exercise in chronic mountain sickness.

BACKGROUND: Chronic mountain sickness (CMS) is an important public health problem and is characterized by exaggerated hypoxemia, erythrocytosis, and pulmonary hypertension. While pulmonary hypertension is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with CMS, it is relatively mild and its underlying mechanisms are not known. We speculated that during mild exercise associated with daily activities, pulmonary hypertension in CMS is much more pronounced. METHODS: We estimated pulmonary artery pressure by using echocardiography at rest and during mild bicycle exercise at 50 W in 30 male patients with CMS and 32 age-matched, healthy control subjects who were born and living at an altitude of 3,600 m. RESULTS: The modest, albeit significant difference of the systolic right-ventricular-to-right-atrial pressure gradient between patients with CMS and controls at rest (30.3 +/- 8.0 vs 25.4 +/- 4.5 mm Hg, P 5 .002) became more than three times larger during mild bicycle exercise (56.4 +/- 19.0 vs 39.8 +/- 8.0 mm Hg, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Measurements of pulmonary artery pressure at rest greatly underestimate pulmonary artery pressure during daily activity in patients with CMS. The marked pulmonary hypertension during mild exercise associated with daily activity may explain why this problem is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with CMS.

Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under 21st-century climate change

Quantitative estimates of the range loss of mountain plants under climate change have so far mostly relied on static geographical projections of species' habitat shifts(1-3). Here, we use a hybrid model(4) that combines such projections with simulations of demography and seed dispersal to forecast the climate-driven spatio-temporal dynamics of 150 high-mountain plant species across the European Alps. This model predicts average range size reductions of 44-50% by the end of the twenty-first century, which is similar to projections from the most 'optimistic' static model (49%). However, the hybrid model also indicates that population dynamics will lag behind climatic trends and that an average of 40% of the range still occupied at the end of the twenty-first century will have become climatically unsuitable for the respective species, creating an extinction debt(5,6). Alarmingly, species endemic to the Alps seem to face the highest range losses. These results caution against optimistic conclusions from moderate range size reductions observed during the twenty-first century as they are likely to belie more severe longer-term effects of climate warming on mountain plants.

Alterations of Neuromuscular Function after the World's Most Challenging Mountain Ultra-Marathon

We investigated the physiological consequences of the most challenging mountain ultra-marathon (MUM) in the world: a 330-km trail run with 24000 m of positive and negative elevation change. Neuromuscular fatigue (NMF) was assessed before (Pre-), during (Mid-) and after (Post-) the MUM in experienced ultra-marathon runners (n = 15; finish time = 122.43 hours +/-17.21 hours) and in Pre- and Post- in a control group with a similar level of sleep deprivation (n = 8). Blood markers of muscle inflammation and damage were analyzed at Pre- and Post-. Mean +/- SD maximal voluntary contraction force declined significantly at Mid- (-13+/-17% and -10+/-16%, P<0.05 for knee extensor, KE, and plantar flexor muscles, PF, respectively), and further decreased at Post- (-24+/-13% and -26+/-19%, P<0.01) with alteration of the central activation ratio (-24+/-24% and -28+/-34% between Pre- and Post-, P<0.05) in runners whereas these parameters did not change in the control group. Peripheral NMF markers such as 100 Hz doublet (KE: -18+/-18% and PF: -20+/-15%, P<0.01) and peak twitch (KE: -33+/-12%, P<0.001 and PF: -19+/-14%, P<0.01) were also altered in runners but not in controls. Post-MUM blood concentrations of creatine kinase (3719+/-3045 Ul.1), lactate dehydrogenase (1145+/-511 UI.L-1), C-Reactive Protein (13.1+/-7.5 mg.L-1) and myoglobin (449.3+/-338.2 microg.L-1) were higher (P<0.001) than at Pre- in runners but not in controls. Our findings revealed less neuromuscular fatigue, muscle damage and inflammation than in shorter MUMs. In conclusion, paradoxically, such extreme exercise seems to induce a relative muscle preservation process due likely to a protective anticipatory pacing strategy during the first half of MUM and sleep deprivation in the second half.