A deterministic model to assess the impact of AIDS interventions in countries with generalized HIV epidemic. An application to Botswana

General introductionThe Human Immunodeficiency/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic, despite recent encouraging announcements by the World Health Organization (WHO) is still today one of the world's major health care challenges.The present work lies in the field of health care management, in particular, we aim to evaluate the behavioural and non-behavioural interventions against HIV/AIDS in developing countries through a deterministic simulation model, both in human and economic terms. We will focus on assessing the effectiveness of the antiretroviral therapies (ART) in heterosexual populations living in lesser developed countries where the epidemic has generalized (formerly defined by the WHO as type II countries). The model is calibrated using Botswana as a case study, however our model can be adapted to other countries with similar transmission dynamics.The first part of this thesis consists of reviewing the main mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general but with a focus on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. We also review deterministic models assessing HIV interventions with a focus on models aimed at African countries. This review helps us to recognize the need for a generic model and allows us to define a typical structure of such a generic deterministic model.The second part describes the main feed-back loops underlying the dynamics of HIV transmission. These loops represent the foundation of our model. This part also provides a detailed description of the model, including the various infected and non-infected population groups, the type of sexual relationships, the infection matrices, important factors impacting HIV transmission such as condom use, other sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and male circumcision. We also included in the model a dynamic life expectancy calculator which, to our knowledge, is a unique feature allowing more realistic cost-efficiency calculations. Various intervention scenarios are evaluated using the model, each of them including ART in combination with other interventions, namely: circumcision, campaigns aimed at behavioral change (Abstain, Be faithful or use Condoms also named ABC campaigns), and treatment of other STD. A cost efficiency analysis (CEA) is performed for each scenario. The CEA consists of measuring the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. This part also describes the model calibration and validation, including a sensitivity analysis.The third part reports the results and discusses the model limitations. In particular, we argue that the combination of ART and ABC campaigns and ART and treatment of other STDs are the most cost-efficient interventions through 2020. The main model limitations include modeling the complexity of sexual relationships, omission of international migration and ignoring variability in infectiousness according to the AIDS stage.The fourth part reviews the major contributions of the thesis and discusses model generalizability and flexibility. Finally, we conclude that by selecting the adequate interventions mix, policy makers can significantly reduce the adult prevalence in Botswana in the coming twenty years providing the country and its donors can bear the cost involved.Part I: Context and literature reviewIn this section, after a brief introduction to the general literature we focus in section two on the key mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general with a focus on HIV transmission. Section three provides a description of HIV policy models, with a focus on deterministic models. This leads us in section four to envision the need for a generic deterministic HIV policy model and briefly describe the structure of such a generic model applicable to countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, also defined as pattern II countries by the WHO.

Regulatory assessment of in vitro skin corrosion and irritation data within the European framework: Workshop recommendations

Validated in vitro methods for skin corrosion and irritation were adopted by the OECD and by the European Union during the last decade. In the EU, Switzerland and countries adopting the EU legislation, these assays may allow the full replacement of animal testing for identifying and classifying compounds as skin corrosives, skin irritants, and non irritants. In order to develop harmonised recommendations on the use of in vitro data for regulatory assessment purposes within the European framework, a workshop was organized by the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health together with ECVAM and the BfR. It comprised stakeholders from various European countries involved in the process from in vitro testing to the regulatory assessment of in vitro data. Discussions addressed the following questions: (1) the information requirements considered useful for regulatory assessment; (2) the applicability of in vitro skin corrosion data to assign the corrosive subcategories as implemented by the EU Classification, Labelling and Packaging Regulation; (3) the applicability of testing strategies for determining skin corrosion and irritation hazards; and (4) the applicability of the adopted in vitro assays to test mixtures, preparations and dilutions. Overall, a number of agreements and recommendations were achieved in order to clarify and facilitate the assessment and use of in vitro data from regulatory accepted methods, and ultimately help regulators and scientists facing with the new in vitro approaches to evaluate skin irritation and corrosion hazards and risks without animal data.

Plasmacytoid dendritic cells and regulatory T cells in the tumor microenvironment: A dangerous liaison.

Tumor-infiltrating plasmacytoid dendritic cells (pDCs) have been associated with poor patient prognosis. We have recently uncovered the ability of pDCs to activate and expand a subset of tumor-infiltrating FOXP3(+) regulatory T cells that express inducible costimulator (ICOS), providing new insights into the mechanisms that govern the escape of cancer from immunosurveillance.

The Institutional Foundations of Regulatory Capitalism: The Diffusion of Independent Regulatory Agencies in Western Europe

This article studies the diffusion of the main institutional feature of regulatory capitalism, namely, independent regulatory agencies. While only a few such authorities existed in Europe in the early 1980s, by the end of the twentieth century they had spread impressively across countries and sectors. The analysis finds that three classes of factors (bottom-up, top-down, and horizontal) explain this trend. First, the establishment of independent regulatory agencies was an attempt to improve credible commitment capacity when liberalizing and privatizing utilities and to alleviate the political uncertainty problem, namely, the risk to a government that its policies will be changed when it loses power. Second, Europeanization favored the creation of independent regulators. Third, individual decisions were interdependent, as governments were influenced by the decisions of others in an emulation process where the symbolic properties of independent regulators mattered more than the functions they performed.

Older people's views of falls-prevention interventions in six European countries.

PURPOSE: Our study identified factors common to a variety of populations and settings that may promote or inhibit uptake and adherence to falls-related interventions. DESIGN AND METHODS: Semistructured interviews to assess perceived advantages and barriers to taking part in falls-related interventions were carried out in six European countries with 69 people aged 68 to 97 years. The sample was selected to include people with very different experiences of participation or nonparticipation in falls-related interventions, but all individuals were asked about interventions that included strength and balance training. RESULTS: Attitudes were similar in all countries and contexts. People were motivated to participate in strength and balance training by a wide range of perceived benefits (interest and enjoyment, improved health, mood, and independence) and not just reduction of falling risk. Participation also was encouraged by a personal invitation from a health practitioner and social approval from family and friends. Barriers to participation included denial of falling risk, the belief that no additional falls-prevention measures were necessary, practical barriers to attendance at groups (e.g., transport, effort, and cost), and a dislike of group activities. IMPLICATIONS: Because many older people reject the idea that they are at risk of falling, the uptake of strength and balance training programs may be promoted more effectively by maximizing and emphasizing their multiple positive benefits for health and well-being. A personal invitation from a health professional to participate is important, and it also may be helpful to provide home-based programs for those who dislike or find it difficult to attend groups.

Demethylation analysis of the FOXP3 locus shows quantitative defects of regulatory T cells in IPEX-like syndrome.

Immune dysregulation, Polyendocrinopathy, Enteropathy X-linked (IPEX) syndrome is a unique example of primary immunodeficiency characterized by autoimmune manifestations due to defective regulatory T (Treg) cells, in the presence of FOXP3 mutations. However, autoimmune symptoms phenotypically resembling IPEX often occur in the absence of detectable FOXP3 mutations. The cause of this "IPEX-like" syndrome presently remains unclear. To investigate whether a defect in Treg cells sustains the immunological dysregulation in IPEX-like patients, we measured the amount of peripheral Treg cells within the CD3(+) T cells by analysing demethylation of the Treg cell-Specific-Demethylated-Region (TSDR) in the FOXP3 locus and demethylation of the T cell-Specific-Demethylated-Region (TLSDR) in the CD3 locus, highly specific markers for stable Treg cells and overall T cells, respectively. TSDR demethylation analysis, alone or normalized for the total T cells, showed that the amount of peripheral Treg cells in a cohort of IPEX-like patients was significantly reduced, as compared to both healthy subjects and unrelated disease controls. This reduction could not be displayed by flow cytometric analysis, showing highly variable percentages of FOXP3(+) and CD25(+)FOXP3(+) T cells. These data provide evidence that a quantitative defect of Treg cells could be considered a common biological hallmark of IPEX-like syndrome. Since Treg cell suppressive function was not impaired, we propose that this reduction per se could sustain autoimmunity.

Modeling stochasticity and robustness in gene regulatory networks.

MOTIVATION: Understanding gene regulation in biological processes and modeling the robustness of underlying regulatory networks is an important problem that is currently being addressed by computational systems biologists. Lately, there has been a renewed interest in Boolean modeling techniques for gene regulatory networks (GRNs). However, due to their deterministic nature, it is often difficult to identify whether these modeling approaches are robust to the addition of stochastic noise that is widespread in gene regulatory processes. Stochasticity in Boolean models of GRNs has been addressed relatively sparingly in the past, mainly by flipping the expression of genes between different expression levels with a predefined probability. This stochasticity in nodes (SIN) model leads to over representation of noise in GRNs and hence non-correspondence with biological observations. RESULTS: In this article, we introduce the stochasticity in functions (SIF) model for simulating stochasticity in Boolean models of GRNs. By providing biological motivation behind the use of the SIF model and applying it to the T-helper and T-cell activation networks, we show that the SIF model provides more biologically robust results than the existing SIN model of stochasticity in GRNs. AVAILABILITY: Algorithms are made available under our Boolean modeling toolbox, GenYsis. The software binaries can be downloaded from http://si2.epfl.ch/ approximately garg/genysis.html.

Gender differences in HIV-positive persons in use of cardiovascular disease-related interventions : D:A:D study

INTRODUCTION: There is a lack of data on potential gender differences in the use of interventions to prevent and treat cardiovascular disease (CVD) in HIV-positive individuals. We investigated whether such differences exist in the D:A:D study. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Follow-up was from 01/02/99 until the earliest of death, 6 months after last visit or 01/02/13. Rates of initiation of lipid-lowering drugs (LLDs), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs), anti-hypertensives and receipt of invasive cardiovascular procedures (ICPs; bypass, angioplasty, endarterectomy) were calculated in those without a myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke at baseline, overall and in groups known to be at higher CVD risk: (i) age >50, (ii) total cholesterol >6.2 mmol/l, (iii) triglyceride >2.3 mmol/l, (iv) hypertension, (v) previous MI, (vi) diabetes, or (vii) predicted 10-year CVD risk >10%. Poisson regression was used to assess whether rates of initiation were higher in men than women, after adjustment for these factors. RESULTS: At enrolment, women (n=13,039; median (interquartile range) 34 (29-40) years) were younger than men (n=36,664, 39 (33-46) years, p=0.001), and were less likely to be current smokers (29% vs. 39%, p=0.0001), to have diabetes (2% vs. 3%, p=0.0001) or to have hypertension (7% vs. 11%, p=0.0001). Of 49,071 individuals without a MI/stroke at enrolment, 0.6% women vs. 2.1% men experienced a MI while 0.8% vs. 1.3% experienced a stroke. Overall, women received ICPs at a rate of 0.07/100 person-years (PYRS) compared to 0.29/100 PYRS in men. Similarly, the rates of initiation of LLDs (1.28 vs. 2.46), anti-hypertensives (1.11 vs. 1.38) and ACEIs (0.82 vs. 1.37) were all significantly lower in women than men (Table 1). As expected, initiation rates of each intervention were higher in the groups determined to be at moderate/high CVD risk; however, within each high-risk group, initiation rates of most interventions (with the exception of anti-hypertensives) were generally lower in women than men. These gender differences persisted after adjustment for potential confounders (Table 1). CONCLUSION: Use of most CVD interventions was lower among women than men in the D:A:D study. Our findings suggest that actions should be taken to ensure that both men and women are monitored for CVD and, if eligible, receive appropriate CVD interventions.

MicroRNA Profile of Circulating CD4-positive Regulatory T Cells in Human Adults and Impact of Differentially Expressed MicroRNAs on Expression of Two Genes Essential to Their Function.

Regulatory T cells (Tregs) are characterized by a high expression of IL-2 receptor α chain (CD25) and of forkhead box P3 (FOXP3), the latter being essential for their development and function. Another major player in the regulatory function is the cytotoxic T-lymphocyte associated molecule-4 (CTLA-4) that inhibits cytotoxic responses. However, the regulation of CTLA-4 expression remains less well explored. We therefore studied the microRNA signature of circulating CD4(+) Tregs isolated from adult healthy donors and identified a signature composed of 15 differentially expressed microRNAs. Among those, miR-24, miR-145, and miR-210 were down-regulated in Tregs compared with controls and were found to have potential target sites in the 3'-UTR of FOXP3 and CTLA-4; miR-24 and miR-210 negatively regulated FOXP3 expression by directly binding to their two target sites in its 3'-UTR. On the other hand, miR-95, which is highly expressed in adult peripheral blood Tregs, positively regulated FOXP3 expression via an indirect mechanism yet to be identified. Finally, we showed that miR-145 negatively regulated CTLA-4 expression in human CD4(+) adult peripheral blood Tregs by binding to its target site in CTLA-4 transcript 3'-UTR. To our knowledge, this is the first identification of a human adult peripheral blood CD4(+) Treg microRNA signature. Moreover, unveiling one mechanism regulating CTLA-4 expression is novel and may lead to a better understanding of the regulation of this crucial gene.