Diabetes mellitus and cancer risk in a network of case-control studies.

Diabetes has been associated to the risk of a few cancer sites, though quantification of this association in various populations remains open to discussion. We analyzed the relation between diabetes and the risk of various cancers in an integrated series of case-control studies conducted in Italy and Switzerland between 1991 and 2009. The studies included 1,468 oral and pharyngeal, 505 esophageal, 230 gastric, 2,390 colorectal, 185 liver, 326 pancreatic, 852 laryngeal, 3,034 breast, 607 endometrial, 1,031 ovarian, 1,294 prostate, and 767 renal cell cancer cases and 12,060 hospital controls. The multivariate odds ratios (OR) for subjects with diabetes as compared to those without-adjusted for major identified confounding factors for the cancers considered through logistic regression models-were significantly elevated for cancers of the oral cavity/pharynx (OR = 1.58), esophagus (OR = 2.52), colorectum (OR = 1.23), liver (OR = 3.52), pancreas (OR = 3.32), postmenopausal breast (OR = 1.76), and endometrium (OR = 1.70). For cancers of the oral cavity, esophagus, colorectum, liver, and postmenopausal breast, the excess risk persisted over 10 yr since diagnosis of diabetes. Our data confirm and further quantify the association of diabetes with colorectal, liver, pancreatic, postmenopausal breast, and endometrial cancer and suggest forthe first time that diabetes may also increase the risk of oral/pharyngeal and esophageal cancer. [Table: see text] [Table: see text].

Replicative phenotyping adds value to genotypic resistance testing in heavily pre-treated HIV-infected individuals--the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Replicative phenotypic HIV resistance testing (rPRT) uses recombinant infectious virus to measure viral replication in the presence of antiretroviral drugs. Due to its high sensitivity of detection of viral minorities and its dissecting power for complex viral resistance patterns and mixed virus populations rPRT might help to improve HIV resistance diagnostics, particularly for patients with multiple drug failures. The aim was to investigate whether the addition of rPRT to genotypic resistance testing (GRT) compared to GRT alone is beneficial for obtaining a virological response in heavily pre-treated HIV-infected patients. METHODS: Patients with resistance tests between 2002 and 2006 were followed within the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). We assessed patients' virological success after their antiretroviral therapy was switched following resistance testing. Multilevel logistic regression models with SHCS centre as a random effect were used to investigate the association between the type of resistance test and virological response (HIV-1 RNA <50 copies/mL or ≥1.5 log reduction). RESULTS: Of 1158 individuals with resistance tests 221 with GRT+rPRT and 937 with GRT were eligible for analysis. Overall virological response rates were 85.1% for GRT+rPRT and 81.4% for GRT. In the subgroup of patients with >2 previous failures, the odds ratio (OR) for virological response of GRT+rPRT compared to GRT was 1.45 (95% CI 1.00-2.09). Multivariate analyses indicate a significant improvement with GRT+rPRT compared to GRT alone (OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.31-2.15). CONCLUSIONS: In heavily pre-treated patients rPRT-based resistance information adds benefit, contributing to a higher rate of treatment success.

25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration is inversely associated with serum MMP-9 in a cross-sectional study of African American ESRD patients.

BACKGROUND: Circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentration is inversely associated with peripheral arterial disease and hypertension. Vascular remodeling may play a role in this association, however, data relating vitamin D level to specific remodeling biomarkers among ESRD patients is sparse. We tested whether 25(OH)D concentration is associated with markers of vascular remodeling and inflammation in African American ESRD patients.METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study among ESRD patients receiving maintenance hemodialysis within Emory University-affiliated outpatient hemodialysis units. Demographic, clinical and dialysis treatment data were collected via direct patient interview and review of patients records at the time of enrollment, and each patient gave blood samples. Associations between 25(OH)D and biomarker concentrations were estimated in univariate analyses using Pearson's correlation coefficients and in multivariate analyses using linear regression models. 25(OH) D concentration was entered in multivariate linear regression models as a continuous variable and binary variable (<15 ng/ml and =15 ng/ml). Adjusted estimate concentrations of biomarkers were compared between 25(OH) D groups using analysis of variance (ANOVA). Finally, results were stratified by vascular access type.RESULTS: Among 91 patients, mean (standard deviation) 25(OH)D concentration was 18.8 (9.6) ng/ml, and was low (<15 ng/ml) in 43% of patients. In univariate analyses, low 25(OH) D was associated with lower serum calcium, higher serum phosphorus, and higher LDL concentrations. 25(OH) D concentration was inversely correlated with MMP-9 concentration (r = -0.29, p = 0.004). In multivariate analyses, MMP-9 concentration remained negatively associated with 25(OH) D concentration (P = 0.03) and anti-inflammatory IL-10 concentration positively correlated with 25(OH) D concentration (P = 0.04).CONCLUSIONS: Plasma MMP-9 and circulating 25(OH) D concentrations are significantly and inversely associated among ESRD patients. This finding may suggest a potential mechanism by which low circulating 25(OH) D functions as a cardiovascular risk factor.

My older sibling was drunk - younger siblings' drunkenness in relation to parental monitoring and the parent-adolescent relationship.

This study explored the links between having older siblings who get drunk, satisfaction with the parent-adolescent relationship, parental monitoring, and adolescents' risky drinking. Regression models were conducted based on a national representative sample of 3725 8th to 10th graders in Switzerland (mean age 15.0, SD = .93) who indicated having older siblings. Results showed that both parental factors and older siblings' drinking behaviour shape younger siblings' frequency of risky drinking. Parental monitoring showed a linear dose-response relationship, and siblings' influence had an additive effect. There was a non-linear interaction effect between parent-adolescent relationship and older sibling's drunkenness. The findings suggest that, apart from avoiding an increasingly unsatisfactory relationship with their children, parental monitoring appears to be important in preventing risky drinking by their younger children, even if the older sibling drinks in such a way. However, a satisfying relationship with parents does not seem to be sufficient to counterbalance older siblings' influence.

Influence of noninjecting and injecting drug use on mortality, retention in the cohort, and antiretroviral therapy, in participants in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: We studied the influence of noninjecting and injecting drug use on mortality, dropout rate, and the course of antiretroviral therapy (ART), in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). METHODS: Cohort participants, registered prior to April 2007 and with at least one drug use questionnaire completed until May 2013, were categorized according to their self-reported drug use behaviour. The probabilities of death and dropout were separately analysed using multivariable competing risks proportional hazards regression models with mutual correction for the other endpoint. Furthermore, we describe the influence of drug use on the course of ART. RESULTS: A total of 6529 participants (including 31% women) were followed during 31 215 person-years; 5.1% participants died; 10.5% were lost to follow-up. Among persons with homosexual or heterosexual HIV transmission, noninjecting drug use was associated with higher all-cause mortality [subhazard rate (SHR) 1.73; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07-2.83], compared with no drug use. Also, mortality was increased among former injecting drug users (IDUs) who reported noninjecting drug use (SHR 2.34; 95% CI 1.49-3.69). Noninjecting drug use was associated with higher dropout rates. The mean proportion of time with suppressed viral replication was 82.2% in all participants, irrespective of ART status, and 91.2% in those on ART. Drug use lowered adherence, and increased rates of ART change and ART interruptions. Virological failure on ART was more frequent in participants who reported concomitant drug injections while on opiate substitution, and in current IDUs, but not among noninjecting drug users. CONCLUSIONS: Noninjecting drug use and injecting drug use are modifiable risks for death, and they lower retention in a cohort and complicate ART.

Association of different lipid measures for atherogenic lipid fractions and risk of coronary events in patients receiving combination antiretroviral therapy: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

Background: Evidence for a better performance of different highly atherogenic versus traditional lipid parameters for coronary heart disease (CHD) risk prediction is conflicting. We investigated the association of the ratios of sma11 dense low density lipoprotein(LDL)/apoplipoprotein A, aolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I and total cholesterol! HDL-cholesterol and CHD events in patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART).Methods: Case control study nested into the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: for each cART-treated patient with a first coronary event between April 1, 2000 and July 31, 2008 (case) we selected four control patients (1) that were without coronary events until the date of the event of the index case, (2) had a plasma sample within ±30 days of the sample date of the respective case, (3) received cART and (4) were then matched for age, gender and smoking status. Lipoproteins were measured by ultracentrifugation. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate the independent effects of different lipid ratios and the occurrence of coronary events.Results: In total, 98 cases (19 fatal myocardial infarctions [MI] and 79 non-fatal coronary events [53 definite MIs, 15 possible MIs and 11 coronary angioplasties or bypassesJ) were matched with 392 controls. Cases were more often injecting drug users, less likely to be virologically suppressed and more often on abacavir-containing regimens. In separa te multivariable models of total cholesterol, triglycerides, HDL-cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, abdominal obesity, diabetes and family history of CHD, small dense-LDL and apolipoprotein B were each statistically significantly associated with CHD events (for 1 mg/dl increase: odds ratio [OR] 1.05, 95% CI 1.00-1.11 and 1.15, 95% CI 1.01-1.31, respectively), but the ratiosof small dense-LDLlapolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.26, 95% CI 0.95-1.67), apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.97-1.07) and HDL-cholesterol! total cholesterol (OR 0.99 95% CI 0.98-1.00) were not. Following adjustment for HIV related and cART variables these associations were weakened in each model: apolipoprotein B (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.00-1.30), sd-LDL (OR 1.04, 95% CI 0.99-1.20), small dense-LDLlapolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.17, 95% CI 0.87-1.58), apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.97-1.07) and total cholesterolJHDL- cholesterol (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.99-1.00).Conclusions: In patients receiving cART, small dense-LDL and apolipoprotein B showed the strongest associations with CHD events in models controlling for traditional CHD risk factors including total cholesterol and triglycerides. Adding small dense LDLlapoplipoprotein A-l, apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I and total cholesterol! HDL-cholesterol ratios did not further improve models of lipid parameters and associations of increased risk for CHD events.

Early disturbances of gamma band dynamics in mild cognitive impairment.

Recent studies have indicated that gamma band oscillations participate in the temporal binding needed for the synchronization of cortical networks involved in short-term memory and attentional processes. To date, no study has explored the temporal dynamics of gamma band in the early stages of dementia. At baseline, gamma band analysis was performed in 29 cases with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) during the n-back task. Based on phase diagrams, multiple linear regression models were built to explore the relationship between the cognitive status and gamma oscillation changes over time. Individual measures of phase diagram complexity were made using fractal dimension values. After 1 year, all cases were assessed neuropsychologically using the same battery. A total of 16 MCI patients showed progressive cognitive decline (PMCI) and 13 remained stable (SMCI). When adjusted for gamma values at lag -2, and -3 ms, PMCI cases displayed significantly lower average changes in gamma values than SMCI cases both in detection and 2-back tasks. Gamma fractal dimension of PMCI cases displayed significantly higher gamma fractal dimension values compared to SMCI cases. This variable explained 11.8% of the cognitive variability in this series. Our data indicate that the progression of cognitive decline in MCI is associated with early deficits in temporal binding that occur during the activation of selective attention processes.

The predictive value of trabecular bone score (TBS) on whole lumbar vertebrae mechanics: an ex vivo study.

We investigated the association of trabecular bone score (TBS) with microarchitecture and mechanical behavior of human lumbar vertebrae. We found that TBS reflects vertebral trabecular microarchitecture and is an independent predictor of vertebral mechanics. However, the addition of TBS to areal BMD (aBMD) did not significantly improve prediction of vertebral strength. INTRODUCTION: The trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level measure of texture using a modified experimental variogram which can be extracted from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. The current study aimed to confirm whether TBS is associated with trabecular microarchitecture and mechanics of human lumbar vertebrae, and if its combination with BMD improves prediction of fracture risk. METHODS: Lumbar vertebrae (L3) were harvested fresh from 16 donors. The anteroposterior and lateral bone mineral content (BMC) and areal BMD (aBMD) of the vertebral body were measured using DXA; then, the TBS was extracted using TBS iNsight software (Medimaps SA, France). The trabecular bone volume (Tb.BV/tissue volume, TV), trabecular thickness (Tb.Th), degree of anisotropy, and structure model index (SMI) were measured using microcomputed tomography. Quasi-static uniaxial compressive testing was performed on L3 vertebral bodies to assess failure load and stiffness. RESULTS: The TBS was significantly correlated to Tb.BV/TV and SMI (râeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.58 and -0.62; pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.02, 0.01), but not related to BMC and BMD. TBS was significantly correlated with stiffness (râeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.64; pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.007), independently of bone mass. Using stepwise multiple regression models, we failed to demonstrate that the combination of BMD and TBS was better at explaining mechanical behavior than either variable alone. However, the combination TBS, Tb.Th, and BMC did perform better than each parameter alone, explaining 79 % of the variability in stiffness. CONCLUSIONS: In our study, TBS was associated with microarchitecture parameters and with vertebral mechanical behavior, but TBS did not improve prediction of vertebral biomechanical properties in addition to aBMD.

Enterococcal endocarditis in the beginning of the 21st century: analysis from the International Collaboration on Endocarditis-Prospective Cohort Study.

Enterococci are reportedly the third most common group of endocarditis-causing pathogens but data on enterococcal infective endocarditis (IE) are limited. The aim of this study was to analyse the characteristics and prognostic factors of enterococcal IE within the International Collaboration on Endocarditis. In this multicentre, prospective observational cohort study of 4974 adults with definite IE recorded from June 2000 to September 2006, 500 patients had enterococcal IE. Their characteristics were described and compared with those of oral and group D streptococcal IE. Prognostic factors for enterococcal IE were analysed using multivariable Cox regression models. The patients' mean age was 65 years and 361/500 were male. Twenty-three per cent (117/500) of cases were healthcare related. Enterococcal IE were more frequent than oral and group D streptococcal IE in North America. The 1-year mortality rate was 28.9% (144/500). E. faecalis accounted for 90% (453/500) of enterococcal IE. Resistance to vancomycin was observed in 12 strains, eight of which were observed in North America, where they accounted for 10% (8/79) of enterococcal strains, and was more frequent in E. faecium than in E. faecalis (3/16 vs. 7/364 , p 0.01). Variables significantly associated with 1-year mortality were heart failure (HR 2.4, 95% CI 1.7--3.5, p <0.0001), stroke (HR 1.9, 95% CI 1.3--2.8, p 0.001) and age (HR 1.02 per 1-year increment, 95% CI 1.01--1.04, p 0.002). Surgery was not associated with better outcome. Enterococci are an important cause of IE, with a high mortality rate. Healthcare association and vancomycin resistance are common in particular in North America.

The IFNL3/4 ΔG variant increases susceptibility to cytomegalovirus retinitis among HIV-infected patients.

BACKGROUND: Cytomegalovirus (CMV) retinitis is a major cause of visual impairment and blindness among patients with uncontrolled HIV infections. Whereas polymorphisms in interferon-lambda 3 (IFNL3, previously named IL28B) strongly influence the clinical course of hepatitis C, few studies examined the role of such polymorphisms in infections due to viruses other than hepatitis C virus. OBJECTIVES: To analyze the association of newly identified IFNL3/4 variant rs368234815 with susceptibility to CMV-associated retinitis in a cohort of HIV-infected patients. DESIGN AND METHODS: This retrospective longitudinal study included 4884 white patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, among whom 1134 were at risk to develop CMV retinitis (CD4 nadir <100 /μl and positive CMV serology). The association of CMV-associated retinitis with rs368234815 was assessed by cumulative incidence curves and multivariate Cox regression models, using the estimated date of HIV infection as a starting point, with censoring at death and/or lost follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 40 individuals among 1134 patients at risk developed CMV retinitis. The minor allele of rs368234815 was associated with a higher risk of CMV retinitis (log-rank test P = 0.007, recessive mode of inheritance). The association was still significant in a multivariate Cox regression model (hazard ratio 2.31, 95% confidence interval 1.09-4.92, P = 0.03), after adjustment for CD4 nadir and slope, HAART and HIV-risk groups. CONCLUSION: We reported for the first time an association between an IFNL3/4 polymorphism and susceptibility to AIDS-related CMV retinitis. IFNL3/4 may influence immunity against viruses other than HCV.

Prediction of functional outcome 18 months after a first psychotic episode: a proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy study.

CONTEXT: Recent magnetic resonance imaging studies have attempted to relate volumetric brain measurements in early schizophrenia to clinical and functional outcome some years later. These studies have generally been negative, perhaps because gray and white matter volumes inaccurately assess the underlying dysfunction that might be predictive of outcome. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the predictive value of frontal and temporal spectroscopy measures for outcome in patients with first-episode psychoses. DESIGN: Left prefrontal cortex and left mediotemporal lobe voxels were assessed using proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy to provide the ratio of N-acetylaspartate (NAA) and choline-containing compounds to creatine and phosphocreatine (Cr) (NAA/Cr ratio). These data were used to predict outcome at 18 months after admission, as assessed by a systematic medical record audit. SETTING: Early psychosis clinic. PARTICIPANTS: Forty-six patients with first-episode psychosis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We used regression models that included age at imaging and duration of untreated psychosis to predict outcome scores on the Global Assessment of Functioning Scale, Clinical Global Impression scales, and Social and Occupational Functional Assessment Scale, as well as the number of admissions during the treatment period. We then further considered the contributions of premorbid function and baseline level of negative symptoms. RESULTS: The only spectroscopic predictor of outcome was the NAA/Cr ratio in the prefrontal cortex. Low scores on this variable were related to poorer outcome on all measures. In addition, the frontal NAA/Cr ratio explained 17% to 30% of the variance in outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Prefrontal neuronal dysfunction is an inconsistent feature of early psychosis; rather, it is an early marker of poor prognosis across the first years of illness. The extent to which this can be used to guide treatment and whether it predicts outcome some years after first presentation are questions for further research.

Perception of tobacco, cannabis, and alcohol use of others is associated with one's own use.

BACKGROUND: Interventions have been developed to reduce overestimations of substance use among others, especially for alcohol and among students. Nevertheless, there is a lack of knowledge on misperceptions of use for substances other than alcohol. We studied the prevalence of misperceptions of use for tobacco, cannabis, and alcohol and whether the perception of tobacco, cannabis, and alcohol use by others is associated with one's own use. METHODS: Participants (n=5216) in a cohort study from a census of 20-year-old men (N=11,819) estimated the prevalence of tobacco and cannabis use among peers of the same age and sex and the percentage of their peers drinking more alcohol than they did. Using the census data, we determined whether participants overestimated, accurately estimated, or underestimated substance use by others. Regression models were used to compare substance use by those who overestimated or underestimated peer substance with those who accurately estimated peer use. Other variables included in the analyses were the presence of close friends with alcohol or other drug problems and family history of substance use. RESULTS: Tobacco use by others was overestimated by 46.1% and accurately estimated by 37.3% of participants. Cannabis use by others was overestimated by 21.8% and accurately estimated by 31.6% of participants. Alcohol use by others was overestimated by more than half (53.4%) of participants and accurately estimated by 31.0%. In multivariable models, compared with participants who accurately estimated tobacco use by others, those who overestimated it reported smoking more cigarettes per week (incidence rate ratio [IRR] [95% CI], 1.17 [range, 1.05, 1.32]). There was no difference in the number of cigarettes smoked per week between those underestimating and those accurately estimating tobacco use by others (IRR [95% CI], 0.99 [range, 0.84, 1.17]). Compared with participants accurately estimating cannabis use by others, those who overestimated it reported more days of cannabis use per month (IRR [95% CI], 1.43 [range, 1.21, 1.70]), whereas those who underestimated it reported fewer days of cannabis use per month (IRR [95% CI], 0.62 [range, 0.23, 0.75]). Compared with participants accurately estimating alcohol use by others, those who overestimated it reported consuming more drinks per week (IRR [95% CI], 1.57 [range, 1.43, 1.72]), whereas those who underestimated it reported consuming fewer drinks per week (IRR [95% CI], 0.41 [range, 0.34, 0.50]). CONCLUSIONS: Perceptions of substance use by others are associated with one's own use. In particular, overestimating use by others is frequent among young men and is associated with one's own greater consumption. This association is independent of the substance use environment, indicating that, even in the case of proximity to a heavy-usage group, perception of use by others may influence one's own use. If preventive interventions are to be based on normative feedback, and their aim is to reduce overestimations of use by others, then the prevalence of overestimation indicates that they may be of benefit to roughly half the population; or, in the case of cannabis, to as few as 20%. Such interventions should take into account differing strengths of association across substances.

Red meat and cancer risk in a network of case-control studies focusing on cooking practices.

BACKGROUND: Consumption of red meat has been related to increased risk of several cancers. Cooking methods could modify the magnitude of this association, as production of chemicals depends on the temperature and duration of cooking. METHODS: We analyzed data from a network of case-control studies conducted in Italy and Switzerland between 1991 and 2009. The studies included 1465 oral and pharyngeal, 198 nasopharyngeal, 851 laryngeal, 505 esophageal, 230 stomach, 1463 colon, 927 rectal, 326 pancreatic, 3034 breast, 454 endometrial, 1031 ovarian, 1294 prostate and 767 renal cancer cases. Controls included 11 656 patients admitted for acute, non-neoplastic conditions. Odds ratios (ORs) and confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated by multiple logistic regression models, adjusted for known confounding factors. RESULTS: Daily intake of red meat was significantly associated with the risk of cancer of the oral cavity and pharynx (OR for increase of 50 g/day = 1.38; 95% CI: 1.26-1.52), nasopharynx (OR = 1.29; 95% CI: 1.04-1.60), larynx (OR = 1.46; 95% CI: 1.30-1.64), esophagus (OR = 1.46; 95% CI: 1.23-1.72), colon (OR = 1.17; 95% CI: 1.08-1.26), rectum (OR = 1.22; 95% CI:1.11-1.33), pancreas (OR = 1.51; 95% CI: 1.25-1.82), breast (OR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.04-1.19), endometrium (OR = 1.30; 95% CI: 1.10-1.55) and ovary (OR = 1.29; 95% CI: 1.16-1.43). Fried meat was associated with a higher risk of cancer of oral cavity and pharynx (OR = 2.80; 95% CI: 2.02-3.89) and esophagus (OR = 4.52; 95% CI: 2.50-8.18). Risk of prostate cancer increased for meat cooked by roasting/grilling (OR = 1.31; 95% CI: 1.12-1.54). No heterogeneity according to cooking methods emerged for other cancers. Nonetheless, significant associations with boiled/stewed meat also emerged for cancer of the nasopharynx (OR = 1.97; 95% CI: 1.30-3.00) and stomach (OR = 1.86; 95% CI: 1.20-2.87). CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis confirmed red meat consumption as a risk factor for several cancer sites, with a limited impact of cooking methods. These findings, thus, call for a limitation of its consumption in populations of Western countries.

Recent decrease in the prevalence of congenital heart defects in europe.

OBJECTIVES: To examine trends in the prevalence of congenital heart defects (CHDs) in Europe and to compare these trends with the recent decrease in the prevalence of CHDs in Canada (Quebec) that was attributed to the policy of mandatory folic acid fortification. STUDY DESIGN: We used data for the period 1990-2007 for 47 508 cases of CHD not associated with a chromosomal anomaly from 29 population-based European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies registries in 16 countries covering 7.3 million births. We estimated trends for all CHDs combined and separately for 3 severity groups using random-effects Poisson regression models with splines. RESULTS: We found that the total prevalence of CHDs increased during the 1990s and the early 2000s until 2004 and decreased thereafter. We found essentially no trend in total prevalence of the most severe group (group I), whereas the prevalence of severity group II increased until about 2000 and decreased thereafter. Trends for severity group III (the most prevalent group) paralleled those for all CHDs combined. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of CHDs decreased in recent years in Europe in the absence of a policy for mandatory folic acid fortification. One possible explanation for this decrease may be an as-yet-undocumented increase in folic acid intake of women in Europe following recommendations for folic acid supplementation and/or voluntary fortification. However, alternative hypotheses, including reductions in risk factors of CHDs (eg, maternal smoking) and improved management of maternal chronic health conditions (eg, diabetes), must also be considered for explaining the observed decrease in the prevalence of CHDs in Europe or elsewhere.

Bias related to body mass index in pediatric echocardiographic z scores.

In pediatric echocardiography, cardiac dimensions are often normalized for weight, height, or body surface area (BSA). The combined influence of height and weight on cardiac size is complex and likely varies with age. We hypothesized that increasing weight for height, as represented by body mass index (BMI) adjusted for age, is poorly accounted for in Z scores normalized for weight, height, or BSA. We aimed to evaluate whether a bias related to BMI was introduced when proximal aorta diameter Z scores are derived from bivariate models (only one normalizing variable), and whether such a bias was reduced when multivariable models are used. We analyzed 1,422 echocardiograms read as normal in children ≤18 years. We computed Z scores of the proximal aorta using allometric, polynomial, and multivariable models with four body size variables. We then assessed the level of residual association of Z scores and BMI adjusted for age and sex. In children ≥6 years, we found a significant residual linear association with BMI-for-age and Z scores for most regression models. Only a multivariable model including weight and height as independent predictors produced a Z score free of linear association with BMI. We concluded that a bias related to BMI was present in Z scores of proximal aorta diameter when normalization was done using bivariate models, regardless of the regression model or the normalizing variable. The use of multivariable models with weight and height as independent predictors should be explored to reduce this potential pitfall when pediatric echocardiography reference values are evaluated.